Biden’s Journey: Change Is Imperceptible

Ph.D., Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest.

Philip Giraldi

February 25, 2021

Biden has been a major disappointment for those who hoped that he’d change course regarding America’s pathological involvement in overseas conflicts.

The new White House Team has been in place for more than a month and it is perhaps time to consider where it is going with America’s fractured foreign policy. To be sure, when a new administration brings in a bunch of “old hands” who made their bones by attacking Syria and Libya while also assassinating American citizens by drone one might hope that those mistakes might have served as valuable “lessons learned.” Or maybe not, since no one in the Democratic Party ever mentions the Libya fiasco and President Joe Biden has already made it clear that Syria will continue to be targeted with sanctions as well as with American soldiers based on its soil. And no one will be leaving Afghanistan any time soon. The Biden team will only let up when Afghanistan is “secure” and there is regime change in Damascus.

A big part of the problem is that the personnel moves mean that the poison from the Barack Obama years has now been reintroduced into the tottering edifice that Donald Trump left behind. Obama’s United Nations Ambassador Susan Rice once made the case for attacking the Libyans by explaining how Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi provided his soldiers with Viagra so they could more readily engage in mass rapes of presumably innocent civilians. Unfortunately, Sue is back with the new administration as the Director of the Domestic Policy Council where she will no doubt again wreak havoc in her own inimitable fashion. She is joined at the top level of the administration by Tony Blinken as Secretary of State, Avril Haines as Director of National Intelligence, Jake Sullivan as National Security Advisor, Samantha Power as head of USAID and retired General Lloyd J. Austin as Secretary of Defense. All of the appointees are regarded as “hawks” and have personal history working with Biden when he was in Congress and as Vice President, while most of them also served in the Obama administration.

Be that as it may, Joe Biden and whoever is pulling his strings have assembled a group of establishment warmongers and aspirant social justice engineers that is second to none. Those who expected something different than the usual Democratic Party template have definitely been disappointed. Hostility towards China continues with warships being sent to the South China Sea and the president is seeking to create a new Trans-Atlantic alliance directed against both Beijing and Moscow. The Europeans are reportedly not enthusiastic about remaining under Washington’s thumb and would like some breathing room.

In a phone conversation where it would have been interesting to be a fly on the wall, Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that the United States would no longer ignore his bad behavior. The official White House account of the call included the following pithy summary: “President Biden reaffirmed the United States’ firm support for Ukraine’s sovereignty. He also raised other matters of concern, including the SolarWinds hack, reports of Russia placing bounties on United States soldiers in Afghanistan, interference in the 2020 United States election, and the poisoning of Aleksey Navalny.”

And to be sure, there have already been a number of issues that Biden might have dealt with by executive order, like lifting the illegal and unjustified blockade of Cuba, that could have inspired some hope that the new administration would not be just another bit of old wine in new bottles. Alas, that has not taken place but for a series of moves to unleash another wave of illegal immigration and to “protect LGBTQ rights globally.” Biden has also retained a heavy military presence in Washington itself, possibly as part of a Constitution-wrecking plan to tackle what he is referring to as “domestic terrorism.” The domestic terrorists being targeted appear to largely consist of people who are white working and middle class and voted for Trump.

In some ways, foreign policy might have been the easiest fix if the new administration were really seeking to correct the misadventures of the past twenty years. Quite the contrary, Biden and his associates have actually reversed the sensible and long overdue policies initiated by Donald Trump to reduce troop strength in Germany and bring the soldiers home from Syria and Afghanistan. Biden has already committed to an indefinite stay in Afghanistan, America’s longest “lost” war, and has covertly sent more soldiers into Syria as well as Iraq.

As regards Latin America, the U.S. clearly is prepared to double down on regime change in Venezuela, continuing its Quixotic support of Juan Guaido as president. Meanwhile, the new Secretary of State Tony Blinken has clearly indicated that there will be no end to deference to Israeli interests in the Middle East. Under questioning by Congress, he has insisted that Israel will be “consulted” on U.S. policy to include arms sales in the region, which has been interpreted to mean that Jerusalem will have a veto, and has confirmed that his view on Iran is identical to that of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Both are apparently promoting the view that Iran will have enough enriched uranium to construct a weapon within a few weeks, though they have not addressed other technical aspects of what would actually be required to build one. Netanyahu has been making the claim about the Iranian threat since the 1980s and now it is also an element of U.S. policy.

Biden and Blinken have also moved forward slowly on a campaign commitment to attempt renegotiation of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran that President Trump withdrew from in 2017. As a condition to re-start discussions, the Iranian leadership has demanded a return to the status quo ante, meaning that the punitive sanctions initiated by Trump would have to be canceled and Iran would in return cease all enrichment activities. Biden and Blinken, which admittedly sounds a bit like a vaudeville comedy duo, have reportedly agreed to withdraw the Trump sanctions but have also suggested that Iran will have to make other concessions, to include ending its ballistic missile development program and ceasing its “meddling” in the Middle East. Iran will refuse to agree to that, which means that the bid to renegotiate could turn out to be nothing more than a bit of theater involving multilateral “discussions” hosted by the European Union and the pointless hostility between Washington and Tehran will continue.

And speaking again of Israel, there have been concerns expressed by the usual suspects because Biden had not called telephoned Netanyahu immediately after the inauguration. It may be true that the president was sending a somewhat less than subtle message signaling that he was in charge, but the call has now taken place and everything is hunky-dory. As a separate issue, the Jewish state has, of course, the world’s only secret nuclear arsenal, estimated to consist of at least 200 bombs, and it also has several systems available to deliver them on target. For no reasons that make any sense, the United States since the time of President Richard Nixon has never publicly confirmed the existence of the weapons, preferring to maintain “nuclear ambiguity” that allows Israel to have the weapons without any demands for inspections or constraints on their use. The most recent four presidents have, in fact, signed secret agreements with Israel not to expose the nuclear arsenal. Biden has apparently not done so yet, but appeals by international figures, including most recently South African Desmond Tutu, had produced some expectations that the new administration might break with precedent.

Giving aid to Israel is, in fact, illegal due to the Symington Amendment to the Foreign Assistance Act, which bans U.S. economic and military assistance to nuclear proliferators and countries that seek to acquire nuclear weapons. But Biden has already indicated that he would not under any circumstances cut aid to Israel, so the matter would appear to be closed. In any event the Symington Amendment includes an exemption clause that would allow the funding to continue as long as the president certifies to Congress that continued aid to the proliferator would be a vital U.S. interest. Given Israel’s power in both Congress and the White House it is not imaginable that its aid would be affected no matter what Netanyahu and his band of criminals choose to do.

So, it would seem that Biden is unprepared to either pressure or pursue any distancing from Israel and its policies, not a good sign for those of us who have encouraged some disengagement from the Middle East quagmire. And one final issue where some of us have hoped to see some movement from Biden has also been a disappointment. That is Julian Assange, who is fighting against efforts to have him extradited from England to face trial and imprisonment in the U.S. under the Espionage Act. Many observers believe that Assange is a legitimate journalist who is being set up for a show trial with only one possible outcome. The entire process is to a large extent being driven by a desire for revenge coming largely from the Democratic Party since Assange was responsible for publishing the Hillary Clinton emails as well as other party documents. Biden has already indicated that the process of extraditing Assange will continue.

So, Biden has been a major disappointment for those who expected that he might change course regarding America’s pathological involvement in overseas conflicts while also having the good sense and courage to make relations with countries like Iran and Israel responsive to actual U.S. interests. Finally, it would be a good sign if Assange were to be released from the threat of trial and prison, if only to recognize that free speech and a free press benefit everyone, but that is perhaps a bridge too far as the United States moves inexorably towards a totalitarian state intolerant of dissent.

IRANIAN ROCKETS BECOME EVEN MORE POWERFUL AS ISRAEL LACKS OPTIONS TO CONTAIN TEHRAN INFLUENCE

South Front

Despite Israel’s best efforts, Iran’s influence and presence in the Middle East, and in Syria specifically is spreading.

One could blame that on the Biden administration’s halt in the “maximum pressure” campaign, but that influence was increasing even when Donald Trump sat in the White House.

Currently, Iran is furthering its interests and there is little to truly deter it.

On February 1st, Iran carried out its first successful missile launch since Joe Biden became president.

The missile is the Zuljanah, Iran’s newest domestic built satellite-carrying rocket. It is hailed as Tehran’s “most powerful rocket engine” and it can either carry a 220-kilogram satellite, or up to 10 smaller ones.

The Trump Administration, and also Israel have repeatedly accused Iran of using such tests as a way to develop capability for ballistic missiles with a nuclear warhead.

On the very same day, Iran also notified the US that it couldn’t simply rejoin the Nuclear Deal, that the sanctions had to go.

Currently, the Biden Administration appears to be considering its actions, and is not undertaking any further movements to antagonize Tehran.

This stillness is something Israel is discontent with, as it provides Iran and its proxies to operate rather freely.

Tel Aviv is likely feeling a sense of urgency, as even Hezbollah launched an anti-aircraft missile at its drone. That is a rare occurrence.

The Iron Dome was also recently updated and tested out against advanced drones and smaller missiles. That is something both Iran and its proxies are quite adequate at employing.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) arrested a shepherd who cross from Syria into soil occupied by Israel and was apprehended. Threats are all around, and the paranoia is growing.

The concern and need to dig in and protect its own is also apparent in the Juniper Falcon exercise that began on February 4th. It is a join cooperation between the IDF and US European Command.

The drill focuses on improving cooperation, and improving the joint ability to defend from external threats.

Defending both the Israeli and US interests in the Middle East from external threat may become reality sooner, rather than later.

One of the battlegrounds where the US-Israeli bloc feels itself threatened is Syria. On February 4th, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) announced that it had secured the Homs-Deir Ezzor highway. The next operation may take place in the Hama-Aleppo-Raqqa triangle.

The SAA, together with Russian aerial support, and likely some Iranian assistance are making progress.

When ISIS activity goes down, as a result of these operations, Israel will potentially need to be more careful in its raids and activities, because its adversaries may have their hands mostly untied.

Any neutral observer would easily notice that, currently, Iran and the Damascus government are achieving success in their endeavors. And that happens in spite of the actions of ISIS, Israel, Turkey and the US.

Iran to nuclear weapons … a serious option إيران إلى السلاح النوويّ…خيار جدّيّ

**English Machine translation Please scroll down for the Arabic original version **

Iran to nuclear weapons … a serious option

Photo of إيران إلى السلاح النوويّ…
خيار جدّيّ

Nasser Kandil

–In years, as Iran advances nuclear technology and establishes advances in missile technology, even reaching the advanced range, Iran has succeeded in letting America gasp behind, while Iran’s political point of view is neither nuclear nor missile. On the political level, Iran’s nuclear program is a twin, the first is aimed at economic and social progress using nuclear technology in multiple areas, but it has a high strategic value in the Eyes of the United States because of the opportunity to turn into a military nuclear program, and the second to protect progress in the first, Iranian missiles are the shield and fort to protect the nuclear program, by making the thinking of striking this program militarily out of research, especially since the missile program If Iran’s nuclear program is strategically in the eyes of Washington, and Iran’s missile program is a shield against targeting, what is the strategy in Tehran’s eyes?

–During the decades of progress on the nuclear program and subsequently the missile program, Washington has been negotiating and halting negotiations, and discovering when it returns to negotiations that the Iranian program has made qualitatively new progress with which the terms of the negotiations have changed, according to former U.S. President Barack Obama, based on his call not to risk returning pressure and withdrawing from negotiations without signing a possible agreement. Whenever Washington imagined that releasing Iranian funds and lifting sanctions would ensure that Iran would abandon Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, or abandon Ansar Allah in Yemen, it would discover the opposite, until the Obama administration reached the conviction that it agreed with this strategy and wagered to contain its escalation by engaging in localised settlements in the arenas of engagement that would satisfy the local parties, before the administration of former President Trump reached a bet on returning to pressure in response to Saudi-Israeli commitments to turn the table, to result in the Trump mandate the birth of new conditions for negotiation, what are they?

– President Obama said that he was informed by a trusted mediator with Iran that relying on Imam Ali Khamenei’s fatwa prohibiting the production of nuclear weapons to continue pressure on Iran may lead to changing the fatwa to allow the production of nuclear weapons and limiting their use to defending Iran against a nuclear attack, and what the Iranian Minister of Security said before two days about the possibility of Iran going to produce a nuclear weapon, will be taken very seriously, because when Iran announces a hypothesis, it does not do so in negotiation unless it has acquired all of its components, and the scenario for its implementation becomes available, this is an additional significance of the twinning of the nuclear program with the missile program, to form together a project that obtains strategic value in Tehran’s eyes in this case. U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration is reluctant to quickly return the nuclear deal without amendment and without additional conditions, and to push for the lifting of sanctions.

If the confrontation follows this scenario, to which Tehran seems well prepared, the negotiations, according to Obama, will become more complicated, and no one will be able to talk to Iran with less negotiating offers than linking the end of Iran’s nuclear weapons program to the end of Israel’s military nuclear program. This is the new strategic value that Iran is preparing to achieve, which Washington gives legitimacy whenever it makes way to return to the original agreement, which Iran cannot refuse if America returns to it with the lifting of sanctions, under the heading of the return of the parties to the pre-Trump actions that paved Iran’s path to this stage of power.

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إيران إلى السلاح النوويّ…خيار جدّيّ

Photo of إيران إلى السلاح النوويّ…
خيار جدّيّ

ناصر قنديل

خلال سنوات نجحت إيران، وهي تتقدّم في التكنولوجيا النووية وتؤسس للتقدم في تكنولوجيا الصواريخ، حتى بلغت فيها المدى المتقدم، بأن تدع أميركا تلهث وراءها، بينما وجهة إيران السياسية ليست نووية ولا صاروخية. فعلى الصعيد السياسي يشكل البرنامج النووي والبرنامج الصاروخي لإيران توأمين، الأول هادف للتقدم الاقتصادي والاجتماعي باستخدام التقنية النووية في مجالات متعددة، لكنه صاحب قيمة استراتيجية عالية في العيون الأميركية لما يوفره من فرصة للتحول الى برنامج نووي عسكري، والثاني لحماية التقدم في الأول، فالصواريخ الإيرانيّة هي الدرع والحصن لحماية البرنامج النووي، بجعل التفكير بضرب هذا البرنامج عسكرياً خارج البحث، خصوصاً أن البرنامج الصاروخي الإيراني الذي بلغ مراحل القدرة على إصابة كل المواقع الأميركيّة المنتشرة في دائرة شعاعها 2000 كلم، هو البرنامج ذاته الذي تنتقل تقنياته الى قوى المقاومة والذي يجعل مع الصواريخ الإيرانية أمن كيان الاحتلال والحكومات التابعة لواشنطن في دائرة الخطر، فإذا كان البرنامج النووي الإيراني استراتيجياً بعيون واشنطن، والبرنامج الصاروخي الإيراني درع حمايته من الاستهداف، فما هو الاستراتيجي بعيون طهران؟

خلال عقود التقدم في البرنامج النووي وتالياً البرنامج الصاروخي، كانت واشنطن تفاوض وتوقف التفاوض، وتكتشف عندما تعود للتفاوض ان البرنامج الإيراني حقق تقدماً جديداً نوعياً تغيّرت معه شروط التفاوض، وفقاً لما قاله الرئيس الأميركي السابق باراك أوباما، مستنداً الى ذلك في دعوته لعدم المخاطرة بالعودة للضغوط والانسحاب من التفاوض دون توقيع الاتفاق الممكن. وخلال هذه العقود كان ولا يزال الهم الإيراني الاستراتيجي الأول هو بناء طوق صاروخي متين لقوى المقاومة قادر على حصار كيان الاحتلال. وكلما توهمت واشنطن أن الإفراج عن الأموال الإيرانية ورفع العقوبات سيتكفلان بتخلي إيران عن طريق طهران بغداد دمشق بيروت، أو بالتخلي عن أنصار الله في اليمن، كانت تكتشف العكس، حتى وصلت إدارة أوباما إلى الاقتناع بالتساكن مع هذه الاستراتيجية والرهان على احتواء تصاعدها من خلال الانخراط بتسويات موضعية في ساحات الاشتباك، تحوز رضى الأطراف المحلية، قبل ان تصل إدارة الرئيس السابق دونالد ترامب، الى الرهان على العودة للضغوط تلبية لتعهدات إسرائيلية سعودية بقلب الطاولة، لينتج عن ولاية ترامب ولادة شروط جديدة للتفاوض، فما هي؟

قال الرئيس أوباما إنه تبلغ من وسيط موثوق مع إيران، بأن الاستناد إلى فتوى الإمام علي الخامنئي بتحريم إنتاج سلاح نووي لمواصلة الضغط على إيران قد يؤدي لتغيير الفتوى بالسماح بإنتاج سلاح نووي، وحصر استخدامها بالدفاع عن إيران بوجه هجوم نوويّ، وما قاله وزير الأمن الإيراني قبل يومين عن احتمال ذهاب إيران لإنتاج سلاح نووي، يؤخذ على محمل الجدّ لأن إيران عندما تعلن عن فرضية لا تفعل ذلك تفاوضياً إلا وقد امتلكت كل مقوّماتها، وبات سيناريو تطبيقها متاحاً، وهذا مغزى إضافي لتوأمة البرنامج النووي مع البرنامج الصاروخي، ليشكلا معاً مشروعاً ينال القيمة الاستراتيجي بعيون طهران في هذه الحالة. حالة تردّد إدارة الرئيس الأميركي جو بايدن في العودة السريعة للاتفاق النوويّ من دون تعديل ومن دون شروط إضافية، والمبادرة الى رفع العقوبات.

في حال سلكت المواجهة هذا السيناريو، الذي تبدو طهران قد أعدّت له جيداً، يصير التفاوض وفقاً لما قاله اوباما، أشد تعقيداً فلن يكون متاحاً لأحد عندها الحديث مع إيران بعروض تفاوضيّة أقل من ربط إنهاء البرنامج العسكريّ النوويّ الإيراني إلا بالتزامن مع إنهاء البرنامج النوويّ العسكري الإسرائيليّ. وهذه هي القيمة الاستراتيجية الجديدة، التي تستعدّ لتحقيقها إيران، والتي تمنحها واشنطن المشروعيّة كلما عقدت سبل العودة للاتفاق الأصلي، الذي لا تملك إيران أن ترفضه إذا عادت إليه أميركا مرفقاً برفع العقوبات، تحت عنوان عودة الطرفين الى ما قبل إجراءات ترامب التي مهدت لإيران طريق بلوغ هذه المرحلة من الاقتدار

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On the rockets that deprive Israeli leaders of sleep: Friedman’s letter to his “dear” Biden عن الصواريخ التي تَحرِم قادة إسرائيل من النوم: رسالة فريدمان إلى «عزيزه» بايدن

**English Machine translation Please scroll down for the Arabic original version **

On the rockets that deprive Israeli leaders of sleep: Friedman’s letter to his “dear” Biden

Image result for وليد شرارة

ِAl-Akhbar

Walid Sharara

Wednesday, December 2, 2020

The message from the American journalist, the Zionist ideologues, Thomas Friedman, deserves to be read closely.

Image result for Thomas Friedman and joe biden
“Dear Joe, it is no longer a matter of Iranian nuclear”

It is not similar to his articles and books, which are fraught with missionary ideology, which is associated with his personal convictions, which have been lied to by subsequent developments as a whole. He probably wishes to forget his untold narratives of “happy globalisation” and the positive and benefits it will bring to the peoples of all the world, which he has compiled in two books: “Lexus and the Olive Tree”, and “The World Is Flat”. This time, in a remarkable article entitled, “Dear Joe, it is no longer a matter of Iranian nuclear”, he does not speak of his whim. Friedman wanted to address the president-elect, an ardent supporter with close and historical ties to the Democratic Party, on behalf of Israel and its support system in the United States, not just the lobby, commissioned or without them. The article – The message is very clear and candid, reinforcing the conviction that the essence of the strategic battle between the U.S.-Israeli alliance and its allies in the region, and between the axis of resistance, and at the heart of it Iran, is the development of its specific missile capabilities and its allies’ help to do the same. Of course, the attempt to prevent Iran from developing scientifically and technologically, particularly in the nuclear field, and as a result of its independent political choices, is among the central objectives of the hostile alliance, as confirmed by the targeting of its scientists and nuclear facilities, but not the first target on its agenda. Precision missiles, or the “game-changer” as used in dozens of Israeli, U.S. and Western reports, are the number one priority on this scale, and are likely to remain so after Biden enters the White House.

If an Arab writer or expert dares to say that Iran’s missile program deprives Israeli military experts of sleep, it will be judged by the “armies of experts and analysts” Arab “realists” as a “media mouthpiece” of resistance. But they will not dare to treat their friend, and in an earlier era, their reference, Thomas Friedman, in the way he writes that “what some Israeli military experts will admit to you is that Iran’s possession of a nuclear weapon is not what keeps them awake all night, because they don’t think Tehran will use it, because that would be suicide, and Iran’s religious leaders are not suicide bombers. What worries them is Iran’s new weapons, the precision missiles it used against Saudi Arabia, which continue to try to export them to its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, posing a deadly threat to Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and U.S. forces in the region.”

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The Zionist-American theorist does not hesitate to describe the Abqaiq attack, which targeted Saudi oil industries with precision guided missiles and Drones, as he claims, which he accuses Iran of direct responsibility for, of “Pearl Harbor Middle East”, and believes that this region has been reconstituted by Iranian missiles and U.S., Israeli and Gulf responses to it. He concludes that the new U.S. president will face enormous pressure not to return to the nuclear deal as originally drafted, to include the missile program in negotiations with Iran, and to use the “power paper” represented by the harsh sanctions imposed on it to bind it by making concessions about it.

The missile program was not put under the microscope at the time of the signing of the nuclear agreement.


Perhaps it should be remembered that Iran’s missile program was not put under the microscope at the time of the signing of the nuclear deal with Iran.

Image result for signing of the nuclear deal with Iran

To appreciate the position that the Obama administration used when it agreed to the original version of this agreement, it was assumed that Iran was suffering because of what looked like the international embargo that was being imposed around it at the time, that it was draining in Syria and Iraq, and that these conditions provided an opportunity to come to terms with it, and that it is not at its peak. However, the major changes that took place in the Syrian arena after the Russian intervention in September 2015, three months after the signing of the agreement, and the subsequent transfer of qualitative military and missile capabilities to Syria, and the Israeli and American attention to the accelerated development of the missile program in Iran, may be one of the most prominent factors explaining the slow lifting of sanctions stipulated in the agreement, and preventing western companies and institutions from opening up to this country and investing in it, because of warnings and pressure from the United States and sometimes public.

Image result for signing of the nuclear deal with Iran

It was these military, technological and field variables that led Donald Trump and his team to withdraw from the agreement and adopt “extreme pressures” against Tehran, without succeeding in halting the quantitative and qualitative growth of its missile arsenal and its allies. How will Biden and his administration deal with the “stubborn” and different realities that prevailed at the time of the signing of the nuclear deal? What is certain is that Israel’s balanced supporters in this team and beyond and in the various institutions of the U.S. state, i.e. the supporting system, will also stay up all night if they have to, to get the president-elect to be tough on Iran’s missile program, whose continued growth leads to a gradual shift in the balance of power to the detriment of Israel and U.S. hegemony in our region.

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عن الصواريخ التي تَحرِم قادة إسرائيل من النوم: رسالة فريدمان إلى «عزيزه» بايدن

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الأخبار 

وليد شرارة 

الأربعاء 2 كانون الأول 2020

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الرسالة التي وَجّهها الصحافي الأميركي، الصهيوني العقائدي، توماس فريدمان، تستحقّ القراءة بتمعّن. هي لا تشبه مقالاته وكتبه المشحونة بأيديولوجيا تبشيرية، تشي بقناعاته الشخصية، التي كَذّبتها التطوّرات اللاحقة بمجملها. وغالب الظن أنه يتمنّى أن تُنسى سرديّاته المغفلة عن «العولمة السعيدة» وما ستحمله من إيجابيات وفوائد لشعوب العالم قاطبة، والتي جمعها في كتابين: «سيارة ليكسوس وشجرة الزيتون»، و«العالم مسطّح». هذه المرّة، وفي مقال بعنوان لافت، «عزيزي جو، لم يعد الأمر يتعلّق بالنووي الإيراني»، هو لا ينطق عن هواه. أراد فريدمان أن يخاطب الرئيس المنتخَب، وهو من مؤيّديه المتحمّسين ولديه علاقات وثيقة وتاريخية بالحزب الديمقراطي، نيابةً عن إسرائيل والمنظومة الداعمة لها في الولايات المتحدة، وليس مجرّد اللوبي، بتكليف منهما أو من دونه. المقال – الرسالة شديد الوضوح والصراحة، ويعزّز القناعة بأن جوهر المعركة الاستراتيجية الدائرة بين التحالف الأميركي – الإسرائيلي وأذنابه في المنطقة، وبين محور المقاومة، وفي القلب منه إيران، هو تطوير الأخيرة لقدراتها الصاروخية النوعية ومساعدتها حلفاءَها على القيام بالأمر عينه. بطبيعة الحال، فإن محاولة منع إيران من التطوّر علمياً وتكنولوجياً، خاصة في الميدان النووي، ونتيجة لخياراتها السياسية الاستقلالية، هي بين الأهداف المركزية للتحالف المعادي، وهو ما يؤكده استهداف علمائها ومنشآتها النووية، لكنه ليس الهدف الأول المدرَج على جدول أعماله. الصواريخ الدقيقة، أو «العامل المُغيِّر لقواعد اللعبة» حسب التعبير المستخدَم في عشرات التقارير الإسرائيلية والأميركية والغربية، هي الأولوية الأولى على هذا الجدول، ومن المرجّح أن تبقى كذلك بعد دخول بايدن إلى البيت الأبيض.

لو تَجرّأ كاتب أو خبير عربي على القول إن البرنامج الصاروخي الإيراني يَحرم الخبراء العسكريين الإسرائيليين من النوم، لانهال عليه التقريظ والتسخيف من قِبَل «جيوش الخبراء والمحلّلين» العرب «الواقعيين»، باعتباره «بوقاً إعلامياً» للممانعة. لكنّ هؤلاء لن يتجرّأوا على معاملة صديقهم، وفي حقبة سابقة مرجعهم، توماس فريدمان، بالطريقة إيّاها عندما يكتب أن «ما سيعترف به أمامكم بعض الخبراء العسكريين الإسرائيليين هو أن امتلاك إيران لسلاح نووي ليس ما يُبقيهم مستيقظين طيلة الليل، لأنهم لا يعتقدون أن طهران ستستخدمه، لأن ذلك سيكون انتحاراً، والزعماء الدينيون في إيران ليسوا انتحاريين. ما يُقلقهم هو أسلحة إيران الجديدة المفضّلة، أي الصواريخ الدقيقة التي استخدمتها ضدّ السعودية، والتي تواصل محاولة تصديرها إلى وكلائها في لبنان واليمن وسوريا والعراق، ما يشكّل تهديداً قاتلاً لإسرائيل والسعودية والإمارات والقوات الأميركية في المنطقة».

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لا يَتردّد المنظّر الصهيوني – الأميركي في وصف هجوم أبقيق، الذي استهدف صناعات النفط السعودية بصواريخ مُوجّهة دقيقة ومسيّرات، وفقاً لزعمه، والذي يتّهم إيران بالمسؤولية المباشرة عنه، بـ«بيرل هاربر الشرق الأوسط»، ويرى أن هذه المنطقة أعيد تشكيلها من خلال الصواريخ الإيرانية والردود الأميركية والإسرائيلية والخليجية عليها. هو يَخلُص إلى أن الرئيس الأميركي الجديد سيواجه ضغوطاً هائلة لعدم العودة إلى الاتفاق النووي بصيغته الأصلية، ولإدراج البرنامج الصاروخي في المفاوضات مع إيران، وتوظيف «ورقة القوة» التي تُمثّلها العقوبات القاسية المفروضة عليها لإلزامها بتقديم تنازلات حوله.

البرنامج الصاروخي لم يكن قد وُضع تحت المجهر إبّان فترة التوقيع على الاتفاق النووي


ربّما ينبغي التذكير بأن البرنامج الصاروخي الإيراني لم يكن قد وُضع تحت المجهر في الفترة التي تمّ التوقيع خلالها على الاتفاق النووي مع إيران.

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تقدير الموقف الذي استندت إليه إدارة باراك أوباما عندما وافقت على الصيغة الأصلية لهذا الاتفاق، كان يَفترض أن إيران تعاني بسبب ما يشبه الحصار الدولي المضروب حولها آنذاك، وأنها تُستنزف في سوريا والعراق، وأن هذه الظروف تُوفّر فرصة سانحة للتفاهم معها، وهي ليست في أوج قوتها. غير أن المتغيّرات الكبرى التي شهدتها الساحة السورية بعد التدخل الروسي في أيلول/ سبتمبر 2015، أي 3 أشهر بعد توقيع الاتفاق، وما تلاها من عملية نقل لقدرات عسكرية وصاروخية نوعية إلى سوريا، والالتفات الإسرائيلي والأميركي إلى تسارع تطوير البرنامج الصاروخي في إيران، قد تكون من أبرز العوامل التي تُفسّر تباطؤ رفع العقوبات التي نصّ عليها الاتفاق، والحؤول دون قيام شركات ومؤسسات غربية وغير غربية بالانفتاح على هذا البلد والاستثمار فيه، بسبب تحذيرات وضغوط أميركية مبطّنة وأحياناً علنية.

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هذه المتغيّرات العسكرية والتكنولوجية والميدانية هي التي حدت بدونالد ترامب وفريقه إلى الانسحاب من الاتفاق واعتماد «الضغوط القصوى» ضدّ طهران، من دون النجاح في وقف النموّ الكمّي والنوعي للترسانة الصاروخية لديها ولدى حلفائها. كيف سيتعامل بايدن وإدارته مع الوقائع «العنيدة» والمغايرة لتلك التي سادت في فترة توقيع الاتفاق النووي؟ المؤكد هو أن أنصار إسرائيل الوازنين في هذا الفريق وخارجه وفي مختلف مؤسسات الدولة الأميركية، أي المنظومة الداعمة لها، سيبقون بدورهم مستيقظين طيلة الليل إن اضطرّوا لذلك، لحمل الرئيس المنتخَب على التشدّد حيال برنامج إيران الصاروخي، الذي يفضي نموّه المستمرّ إلى تحوّل تدريجي في موازين القوى لغير مصلحة إسرائيل والهيمنة الأميركية في منطقتنا.

فيديوات ذات صلة

مقالات ذات صلة

Biden and the inevitable return to the nuclear understanding بايدن وحتميّة العودة للتفاهم النوويّ

**Please scroll down for the English Machine translation**

بايدن وحتميّة العودة للتفاهم النوويّ

ناصر قنديل

تمتلئ الصحف العربية والأجنبية والقنوات المموّلة من دول الخليج بتحليلات وتقارير ومواقف لخبراء، تركز على تعقيدات تعترض طريق عودة إدارة الرئيس الأميركي المنتخب جو بايدن، تبني عليها الاستنتاج بأن بايدن سيجد طريقاً آخر غير العودة للاتفاق، وجوهر التعقيدات التي يجري استعراضها التي تتوزّع بين مستجدات الملف النووي نفسه، ما يستدعي بعد الخطوات التي اتخذتها إيران منذ الانسحاب الأميركي من التفاهم، ما هو أكثر من مجرد إعلان إيران عن العودة للالتزامات، وهو ما قاله مدير الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية، بالإضافة لاعتبار ملف الصواريخ الإيرانية البالستية والملفات الإقليمية الملتهبة في اليمن وسورية والعراق أسباباً إضافية لتعطيل فرص العودة للتفاهم.

معلوم أن إيران ترفض أي مراحل انتقالية، تتضمن تفاوضاً يسبق العودة للتفاهم، وتصرّ على اعتبار العودة الأميركية المطلوبة بلا شروط لتقابلها عودة للالتزامات من جانب إيران، وعندها ينعقد لقاء الخمسة زائداً واحداً، الذي تشارك فيه الأمم المتحدة والوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية، والاتحاد الأوروبي كشركاء مع الدول المعنية، وفي هذا الإطار الراعي للتفاهم يتم التداول بكل القضايا التقنية التي أراد مدير الوكالة مطالبة إيران بها عبر تصريحاته التي رفضتها إيران، أما في شأن الملفات الأخرى التي يتحدّث عنها الأوروبيون والأميركيون سواء ملف الصواريخ الإيرانية أو ملفات النزاع الإقليمية، فهي قضايا سبق وكانت مطروحة قبل التوقيع على الاتفاق النووي، وفي النهاية بقيت قضايا خلافية وتقرّر السير بالاتفاق رغم بقائها.

السؤال الذي يواجه بايدن، هو الذي واجهه مع الرئيس باراك أوباما عام 2015، أنه في ظل وجود قضايا عالقة مع إيران، ما هي الطريقة الفضلى للتعامل مع الملف النووي، مواصلة الرهان على العقوبات أم الذهاب للحرب أو الاحتكام لقواعد التفاهم، وكان قرار ثنائي أوباما بايدن يومها، الاحتكام للتفاهم، وهذا ما شرحه أوباما مراراً بقوله إنه يدرك أن الاتفاق سيئ، لكنه يدرك أن البديل الذي يمثله الرهان غير الموثوق على العقوبات، مخاطرة كبرى بإضاعة الفرصة، وصولاً لاكتشاف لحظة تمتلك فيها إيران قنبلة نووية، شارحاً كيف أن واشنطن كانت تكتشف مع كل توقف للتفاوض وعودة للعقوبات أنها عندما تعود للتفاوض أن الملف النووي زاد تعقيداً وقدرات إيران زادت نمواً، بينما الحرب مغامرة أشد خطورة، ولا تزال ردود أوباما على رئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو يومها، بنظر فريق بايدن صالحة اليوم، وفقاً لنتائج تجربة الرئيس دونالد ترامب.

يقول فريق بايدن إذا كانت الحرب خياراً، فلماذا لم يلجأ إليها ثنائي ترامب ونتنياهو، أما عن العقوبات فيستعرض فريق بايدن، حصيلة السنوات الأربع لمشروع ترامب نتنياهو، بالخروج من الاتفاق النووي والرهان على العقوبات، التي تسببت بالكثير من الخسائر لإيران، لكنها لم تخل بنظام الحكم ولا فرضت على القيادة الإيرانية التنازلات المطلوبة، وبالمقابل خسرت واشنطن وحلفاؤها الكثير في هذه السنوات، سواء في تطور مقدّرات إيران النووية وغير النووية، أو في تراجع وضع حلفائها وتقدم حلفاء إيران، ففي هذه السنوات تحققت الانتصارات الكبرى لسورية، وامتلك حزب الله الصواريخ الدقيقة، وتحوّل أنصار الله إلى قوة عظمى تمسك بأمن الخليج.

فريق بايدن يقول إن التفاهم الذي كان خياراً سيئاً في عام 2015، هو خيار أشد سوءاً في 2020، لكن الرهان على العقوبات كان مخاطرة كبرى عام 2015 وصار حماقة كبرى وانتحاراً في العام 2020، والحرب التي كانت خياراً على الطاولة عام 2015 لم تعد خيار مطروحاً للنقاش في 2020.

Biden and the inevitable return to the nuclear understanding

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Nasser Qandil

Arab and foreign newspapers and gulf-funded channels are full of analysis, reports and positions of experts, focusing on the complexities of the return of President-elect Joe Biden to JCPOA, They concluded that  Biden will find a way other than to returning to the agreement, And the essence of the complications being reviewed that are distributed among the developments of the nuclear file itself, which calls for, after the steps taken by Iran since the US withdrawal from the understanding, more than just Iran’s announcement of a return to commitments, the director of the IAEA said, in addition to considering the file Iranian ballistic missiles and the and the inflamed regional files in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq as additional reasons for disrupting the chances of a return to understanding.

It is known that Iran rejects any transition, including negotiations prior to the return of the understanding, and insists on considering the return of the U.S. unconditionally required to be met by a return to the commitments of Iran, and then the meeting of the P5+1, in which the UN and the IAEA participate, and the European Union as partners with the countries concerned, As for the other issues that the Europeans and the Americans are talking about, whether the Iranian missile file or the regional conflict files, they are issues that were previously discussed before the signing of the nuclear agreement, and in the end they remained contentious issues and it was decided to proceed with the agreement

The question Biden faces, is what he faced with President Barack Obama in 2015, that with the outstanding issues with Iran, what is the best way to deal with the nuclear file, continue to bet on sanctions or go to war or invoke the rules of understanding, and the decision of the Obama-Biden duo on that day, invoking understanding, and this is what Obama has repeatedly explained by saying that he realizes that the deal is bad, but he realizes that the alternative represented by the bet on the sanctions are a great risk of wasting opportunity, explaining how Washington was discovering with every pause for negotiations and a return to sanctions that when it returns to negotiations that the nuclear file has increased complexity and Iran’s capabilities have grown, while the war is a more dangerous adventure, and Obama’s responses to the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu today, in the eyes of the Biden team, are valid today, according to the results of President Donald Trump’s experience.

Biden’s team says if war is an option, why didn’t the Trump and Netanyahu duo resort to it, but as for the sanctions, Biden’s team,  the outcome of the four-year Trump-Netanyahu project, is reviewing the outcome of the nuclear deal and betting on sanctions, which caused a lot of losses to Iran, but did not disturb the regime or imposed on the Iranian leadership In these years, the major victories of Syria have been achieved, and Hezbollah has possessed precise missiles, and Ansar Allah has turned into a superpower that holds on to Gulf security.

Biden’s team says that understanding, which was a bad choice in 2015, is a worse option in 2020, but betting on sanctions was a major risk in 2015 and became a major folly and suicide in 2020, and the war on the table in 2015 is no longer an option for debate in 2020.

European Messages to Iran in the Trump Style رسائل أوروبيّة إلى إيران بأسلوب ترامب

European Messages to Iran in the Trump Style

Dr. Wafiq Ibrahim

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U.S. President Donald Trump has lost the current presidential election, but the main powers in Europe are still committed to applying literally to his style, unleashing a clamour to stick to his terms in any renewal of the nuclear deal with Iran.

As a reminder, former U.S. President Obama signed the P5+1 deal Iran, but Trump withdrew from it in 2018 on the grounds that it did not meet the strategy of eliminating the Iranian threat from the Middle East as he claimed.

But the three European members, France, England and Germany, did not withdraw from it, maintaining a superficial relationship with Iran, but on the basis of a deep commitment to apply u.S. sanctions on Iran, and their refusal to supply Iran with the medicines and food they need, these Europeans aspired to these comic policies to maintain lines of developable relations in later stages with Iran economic ally and empowerment, but not to exceed their geopolitical association with the Americans. The old continent has been in the midst of American politics since 1945, with timid attempts at rebellion at times unable to succeed.

The fact that Trump’s electoral failure surprised everyone, including Europe, which rejoiced him and began to draw up a plan to keep up with Biden in the movement to renew the American empire, especially after he raised his slogan that “America belongs to the leadership of the world” in exchange for Trump’s slogan that “America first”, and almost said “finally” but his entourage deterred him from doing so because he was already applying it in his retaliatory and punitive policies that did not differentiate between a rival and afriend.

The other approach that the European trio studied in depth was mentioned in an interview with The New York Times in which he focused on his upcoming negotiating project with Iran on the nuclear deal, stressing the need to cancel all nuclear advances it brings to the production of the nuclear bomb, and may have been able to realize it after the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in the Trumpphase.

Biden not only did this, but as usual the Americans have been iran’s precise missiles and political influence in the Middle East as he described it, but the Europeans were not satisfied with this amount of information, they read about the dimensions of the emergence of the Saudi-Gulf-Israel alliance and centered on the Iranian issue mainly with some bilateral economic and securityconcerns.

This alliance does not want practically any Iranian-American rapprochement. This prompts him to create problems that iran accuses in almost everything, such as nuclear, missiles, and militias deployed in the Middle East and its repression of Iranians at home. They spared no charge except to stick it to Iran, in an attempt to block its upcoming negotiations with theAmericans.

Here the Europeans sensed the opportunity that might bring them back to Iran, which means a empowered economic Iran, which has alliances in Yemen, Gaza, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and its internal wealth comes to serve important economic exchanges with Europe, as well as reconstruction and renewal for it and its allies in the Middle East. Yemen is destroyed and exhausted, as well as Syria, Iraq and Gaza, and these are centers allied with Tehran and can forge advanced relations with the Europeans if they succeed in winning the confidence of the Iranians in the startingpoint.

Here, the French, Germans and English considered that what prevents them from returning to Iran are the Americans first, who want to single out the negotiations in preparation for a monopoly onthe prospective economic relations.

They also believed that the Israeli Gulf axis would not accept a European return to Iran outside the USplan.

This prompted the European genius to issue a statement read by the Foreign Minister of Germany, announcing in a European tongue, that what is required is the renewal of mechanisms for the accurate monitoring of iran’s nuclear program, announcing a European insistence on halting the Iranian program of producing precision missiles, and going towards the need to dismantle Iranian political influence in theregion.

The statement seemed to contradict europeans’ membership in the nuclear deal after the U.S. withdrawal in 2017, revealing the extent of European hypocrisy and the economic obsession that controls the countries of the oldcontinent.

The nuclear deal reveals that it is limited to “nuclear”, so what does it have to do with politics and missiles? How can The Americans and Europeans consider Ansar Allah in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the state in Syria, Palestinian organizations in Gaza and the popular mobilization in Iraq, merely Iranian arms or militias?

These are Arab and national forces in their countries, which have entered into projects to counter terrorism and “Israel” and the Saudi-Emirati repression of their countries and resist american hegemony, supported by Iran, which continues to this day to be subject edited by the United States gulf, Israel and Europe as well, how can the Europeans portray these Iranian relations with five Arab powers as mereinfluence.

The Iranian concept of this cooperation is an application of an Iranian principle that believes that liberating the Middle East from the American nightmare and domestic backwardness is possible only to eliminate the American pressure that is working to keep this region in the MiddleAges.

The proof of the credibility of this analysis is this U.S.-Gulf-Israeli and European targeting that is pushing to keep the entire Middle East except Israel in the circle of backwardness, tribalism andsectarianism.

Here, observers have the right to ask if Iran has benefited economically, like the Americans and Europeans, from its relations with its alliances in theregion.

It is clear that this European escalation toward Iran is an attempt to join Biden on his journey toward negotiating with the Islamic Republic, because they know in advance that talking about conditions for precision and nuclear missiles is nothing but gossip that they use to narrow Iran in its political alliances because they fear their Gulf systems from the risk of collapse and do not want to produce local forces that can confrontIsrael.

This is Iran, which is fighting a major alliance that is being targeted by terrorism, the Gulf-Israeli alliance, and the U.S. occupation of the region.

رسائل أوروبيّة إلى إيران بأسلوب ترامب

د.وفيق إبراهيم

خسر الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب الانتخابات الرئاسية الحالية، لكن القوى الاساسية في أوروبا لا تزال تلتزم بتطبيق حرفي لأسلوبه، فتطلق صراخاً وضجيجاً للتمسك بشروطه في أي تجديد للاتفاق النووي مع إيران.

للتذكير فإن الرئيس الأميركي السابق أوباما وقع على اتفاق الخمسة الكبار زائداً واحداً معها، لكن ترامب انسحب منه في 2018 بذريعة انه لا يلبي استراتيجية إلغاء الخطر الإيراني من الشرق الأوسط كما زعم.

إلا ان الاعضاء الأوروبيين الثلاثة فرنسا وانجلترا والمانيا لم ينسحبوا منه، محافظين على علاقة سطحية مع إيران انما على قاعدة الالتزام العميق بتطبيق العقوبات الأميركية عليها، ورفضهم إمدادها بما تحتاجه حتى من الادوية والغذاء، لقد كان هؤلاء الأوروبيون يطمحون بهذه السياسات الهزلية الى ابقاء خطوط لعلاقات قابلة للتطور في مراحل لاحقة مع إيران الاقتصادية والمتمكنة، إنما مع عدم تجاوز ارتباطهم الجيوبولتيكي بالأميركيين. فالقارة العجوز ترتمي في احضان السياسة الأميركية منذ 1945 مع محاولات خجولة للتمرد في بعض الأحيان لم تتمكن من النجاح.

الحقيقة أن الفشل الانتخابي لترامب فاجأ الجميع بما فيهم أوروبا التي ابتهجت به وبدأت برسم خطة لمواكبة بايدن في حركة إعادة تجديد الامبراطورية الأميركية، خصوصاً بعدما رفع شعاره بأن «أميركا تعود لقيادة العالم» مقابل شعار ترامب بأن «أميركا أولاً»، وكاد أن يقول «وأخيراً» لكن حاشيته ردعته عن ذلك لأنه كان يطبقه بالفعل في سياساته الانتقاميّة والعقابية التي لم تكن تفرّق بين منافس وصديق.

اما التوجه الآخر الذي درسه الثلاثي الأوروبي بعمق ورد في مقابلة أجراها بايدن مع صحيفة «النيويورك تايمز» ركز فيها على مشروعه التفاوضي المرتقب مع إيران حول الاتفاق النووي مؤكداً على ضرورة إلغاء كل تقدم نووي يصلها بإنتاج القنبلة النووية، وربما تمكنت من إدراكه بعد الانسحاب الأميركي من الاتفاق النووي في مرحلة ترامب.

لم يكتف بايدن بهذا القدر، بل طاول كعادة الأميركيين صواريخ إيران الدقيقة ونفوذها السياسي في الشرق الاوسط كما وصفه، إلا ان الأوروبيين لم يكتفوا بهذا القدر من المعلومات، فقرأوا بتمعن أبعاد نشوء الحلف السعودي ـ الخليجي ـ الاسرائيلي وتمحوره حول الموضوع الإيراني بشكل أساسي مع بعض الاهتمامات الاقتصاديّة والأمنية الثنائية.

هذا الحلف لا يريد عملياً أي تقارب إيراني ـ أميركي.. بما يدفعه لافتعال إشكالات يتهمون بها إيران في كل شيء تقريباً على مثال النووي والصواريخ وميليشياتها المنشورة في الشرق الأوسط وقمعها للإيرانيين في الداخل. لم يدخروا تهمة إلا ألصقوها بإيران، وذلك لمحاولة عرقلة مفاوضاتها المرتقبة مع الأميركيين.

هنا استشعر الأوروبيون وجود فرصة قد تعيدهم الى إيران والمقصود هنا إيران الاقتصادية المتمكنة والتي تمتلك تحالفات في اليمن وغزة والعراق وسورية ولبنان، فتأتي ثرواتها الداخلية لتخدم تبادلات اقتصادية هامة مع أوروبا، الى جانب إعادة إعمار وتجديد لها ولحلفائها في الشرق الاوسط. فاليمن مدمّر ومنهك وكذلك سورية والعراق وغزة، وهذه مراكز متحالفة مع طهران وتستطيع ان تنسج علاقات متقدمة مع الأوروبيين إذا نجحوا بكسب ثقة الإيرانيين في المنطلق.

هنا اعتبر الفرنسيون والالمان والانجليز أن ما يحول دون عودتهم الى إيران هم الأميركيون أولاً الذين يريدون التفرد بالمفاوضات تمهيداً لاحتكار العلاقات الاقتصادية المرتقبة.

كما رأى هؤلاء ان المحور الخليجي ـ الاسرائيلي لن يقبل بعودة أوروبية الى إيران خارج الخطة الأميركية.

هذا ما دفع بالعبقرية الأوروبية الى إصدار بيان قرأه وزير خارجية المانيا، معلناً فيه بلسان أوروبي، ان المطلوب تجديد آليات لمراقبة دقيقة للبرنامج النووي الإيراني، معلناً عن اصرار أوروبي على وقف البرنامج الإيراني لإنتاج الصواريخ الدقيقة، وذاهباً نحو ضرورة تفكيك النفوذ السياسي الإيراني في الإقليم.

فبدا هذا البيان متناقضاً مع بقاء الأوروبيين في عضوية الاتفاق النووي بعد الانسحاب الأميركي منه في 2017 بما يكشف مدى النفاق الأوروبي، والهاجس الاقتصادي الذي يتحكم بدول القارة العجوز.

فالاتفاق النووي يكشف من اسمه أنه محصور بـ «النووي» فما علاقته بالسياسة والصواريخ؟ وكيف يمكن للأميركيين والأوروبيين اعتبار أنصار الله في اليمن وحزب الله في لبنان والدولة في سورية ومنظمات فلسطينية في غزة والحشد الشعبي في العراق، مجرد أذرع إيرانية او ميليشيات لها؟

هؤلاء هم قوى عربية ووطنية في بلدانها، دخلت في مشاريع للتصدي للإرهاب و»اسرائيل» والقمع السعودي ـ الإماراتي لبلدانها ومقاومة التسلط الأميركي، فدعمتها إيران التي لا تزال تتعرض حتى اليوم لحصار أميركي ـ خليجي ـ اسرائيلي وأوروبي أيضاً، فكيف يمكن للأوروبيين تصوير هذه العلاقات الإيرانية مع خمس قوى عربية على انها مجرد نفوذ.

فالمفهوم الإيراني لهذا التعاون هو تطبيق لمبدئية إيرانية تؤمن بأن تحرير الشرق الاوسط من الكابوس الأميركي والتخلف الداخلي، غير ممكن، إلا بالتخلص من الضغط الأميركي الذي يعمل على ابقاء هذه المنطقة في القرون الوسطى.

اما الدليل على صدقية هذا التحليل، فهو هذا الاستهداف الأميركي ـ الخليجي ـ الاسرائيلي والأوروبي الذي يضغط لإبقاء كامل الشرق الاوسط باستثناء «اسرائيل» في دائرة التخلف والقبلية والطائفية.

هنا يحق للمراقبين ان يسألوا اذا كانت إيران استفادت اقتصادياً كحال الأميركيين والأوروبيين من علاقاتها بتحالفاتها في المنطقة.

بذلك يتضح ان هذا التصعيد الأوروبي تجاه إيران هو محاولة للالتحاق ببايدن في رحلته نحو التفاوض مع الجمهورية الاسلامية، لأنهم يعلمون مسبقاً ان الكلام عن شروط خاصة بالصواريخ الدقيقة والنووي ليس إلا ثرثرة يستعينون بها للتضييق على إيران في تحالفاتها السياسية لأنهم يخشون على انظمتهم الخليجية من خطر الانهيار ولا يريدون انتاج قوى محلية تستطيع مجابهة «اسرائيل».

هذه هي إيران التي تحارب تحالفاً كبيراً يستهدفها متشكلاً من الارهاب والتحالف الخليجي ـ الإسرائيلي والاحتلال الأميركي للمنطقة، فهل تلتحق به أوروبا ام تنفتح على إيران؟

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عن الصواريخ التي تَحرِم قادة إسرائيل من النوم: رسالة فريدمان إلى «عزيزه» بايدن

وليد شرارة

كتب وليد شرارة في عدد جريدة الأخبار ليوم الأربعاء 2 كانون الأول 2020 المقال الاتي:

عن الصواريخ التي تَحرِم قادة إسرائيل من النوم: رسالة فريدمان إلى «عزيزه» بايدن

الرسالة التي وَجّهها الصحافي الأميركي، الصهيوني العقائدي، توماس فريدمان، تستحقّ القراءة بتمعّن. هي لا تشبه مقالاته وكتبه المشحونة بأيديولوجيا تبشيرية، تشي بقناعاته الشخصية، التي كَذّبتها التطوّرات اللاحقة بمجملها. وغالب الظن أنه يتمنّى أن تُنسى سرديّاته المغفلة عن «العولمة السعيدة» وما ستحمله من إيجابيات وفوائد لشعوب العالم قاطبة، والتي جمعها في كتابين: «سيارة ليكسوس وشجرة الزيتون»، و«العالم مسطّح». هذه المرّة، وفي مقال بعنوان لافت، «عزيزي جو، لم يعد الأمر يتعلّق بالنووي الإيراني»، هو لا ينطق عن هواه. أراد فريدمان أن يخاطب الرئيس المنتخَب، وهو من مؤيّديه المتحمّسين ولديه علاقات وثيقة وتاريخية بالحزب الديمقراطي، نيابةً عن إسرائيل والمنظومة الداعمة لها في الولايات المتحدة، وليس مجرّد اللوبي، بتكليف منهما أو من دونه. المقال – الرسالة شديد الوضوح والصراحة، ويعزّز القناعة بأن جوهر المعركة الاستراتيجية الدائرة بين التحالف الأميركي – الإسرائيلي وأذنابه في المنطقة، وبين محور المقاومة، وفي القلب منه إيران، هو تطوير الأخيرة لقدراتها الصاروخية النوعية ومساعدتها حلفاءَها على القيام بالأمر عينه. بطبيعة الحال، فإن محاولة منع إيران من التطوّر علمياً وتكنولوجياً، خاصة في الميدان النووي، ونتيجة لخياراتها السياسية الاستقلالية، هي بين الأهداف المركزية للتحالف المعادي، وهو ما يؤكده استهداف علمائها ومنشآتها النووية، لكنه ليس الهدف الأول المدرَج على جدول أعماله. الصواريخ الدقيقة، أو «العامل المُغيِّر لقواعد اللعبة» حسب التعبير المستخدَم في عشرات التقارير الإسرائيلية والأميركية والغربية، هي الأولوية الأولى على هذا الجدول، ومن المرجّح أن تبقى كذلك بعد دخول بايدن إلى البيت الأبيض.

لو تَجرّأ كاتب أو خبير عربي على القول إن البرنامج الصاروخي الإيراني يَحرم الخبراء العسكريين الإسرائيليين من النوم، لانهال عليه التقريظ والتسخيف من قِبَل «جيوش الخبراء والمحلّلين» العرب «الواقعيين»، باعتباره «بوقاً إعلامياً» للممانعة. لكنّ هؤلاء لن يتجرّأوا على معاملة صديقهم، وفي حقبة سابقة مرجعهم، توماس فريدمان، بالطريقة إيّاها عندما يكتب أن «ما سيعترف به أمامكم بعض الخبراء العسكريين الإسرائيليين هو أن امتلاك إيران لسلاح نووي ليس ما يُبقيهم مستيقظين طيلة الليل، لأنهم لا يعتقدون أن طهران ستستخدمه، لأن ذلك سيكون انتحاراً، والزعماء الدينيون في إيران ليسوا انتحاريين. ما يُقلقهم هو أسلحة إيران الجديدة المفضّلة، أي الصواريخ الدقيقة التي استخدمتها ضدّ السعودية، والتي تواصل محاولة تصديرها إلى وكلائها في لبنان واليمن وسوريا والعراق، ما يشكّل تهديداً قاتلاً لإسرائيل والسعودية والإمارات والقوات الأميركية في المنطقة». لا يَتردّد المنظّر الصهيوني – الأميركي في وصف هجوم أبقيق، الذي استهدف صناعات النفط السعودية بصواريخ مُوجّهة دقيقة ومسيّرات، وفقاً لزعمه، والذي يتّهم إيران بالمسؤولية المباشرة عنه، بـ«بيرل هاربر الشرق الأوسط»، ويرى أن هذه المنطقة أعيد تشكيلها من خلال الصواريخ الإيرانية والردود الأميركية والإسرائيلية والخليجية عليها. هو يَخلُص إلى أن الرئيس الأميركي الجديد سيواجه ضغوطاً هائلة لعدم العودة إلى الاتفاق النووي بصيغته الأصلية، ولإدراج البرنامج الصاروخي في المفاوضات مع إيران، وتوظيف «ورقة القوة» التي تُمثّلها العقوبات القاسية المفروضة عليها لإلزامها بتقديم تنازلات حوله.

ربّما ينبغي التذكير بأن البرنامج الصاروخي الإيراني لم يكن قد وُضع تحت المجهر في الفترة التي تمّ التوقيع خلالها على الاتفاق النووي مع إيران. تقدير الموقف الذي استندت إليه إدارة باراك أوباما عندما وافقت على الصيغة الأصلية لهذا الاتفاق، كان يَفترض أن إيران تعاني بسبب ما يشبه الحصار الدولي المضروب حولها آنذاك، وأنها تُستنزف في سوريا والعراق، وأن هذه الظروف تُوفّر فرصة سانحة للتفاهم معها، وهي ليست في أوج قوتها. غير أن المتغيّرات الكبرى التي شهدتها الساحة السورية بعد التدخل الروسي في أيلول/ سبتمبر 2015، أي 3 أشهر بعد توقيع الاتفاق، وما تلاها من عملية نقل لقدرات عسكرية وصاروخية نوعية إلى سوريا، والالتفات الإسرائيلي والأميركي إلى تسارع تطوير البرنامج الصاروخي في إيران، قد تكون من أبرز العوامل التي تُفسّر تباطؤ رفع العقوبات التي نصّ عليها الاتفاق، والحؤول دون قيام شركات ومؤسسات غربية وغير غربية بالانفتاح على هذا البلد والاستثمار فيه، بسبب تحذيرات وضغوط أميركية مبطّنة وأحياناً علنية.

هذه المتغيّرات العسكرية والتكنولوجية والميدانية هي التي حدت بدونالد ترامب وفريقه إلى الانسحاب من الاتفاق واعتماد «الضغوط القصوى» ضدّ طهران، من دون النجاح في وقف النموّ الكمّي والنوعي للترسانة الصاروخية لديها ولدى حلفائها. كيف سيتعامل بايدن وإدارته مع الوقائع «العنيدة» والمغايرة لتلك التي سادت في فترة توقيع الاتفاق النووي؟ المؤكد هو أن أنصار إسرائيل الوازنين في هذا الفريق وخارجه وفي مختلف مؤسسات الدولة الأميركية، أي المنظومة الداعمة لها، سيبقون بدورهم مستيقظين طيلة الليل إن اضطرّوا لذلك، لحمل الرئيس المنتخَب على التشدّد حيال برنامج إيران الصاروخي، الذي يفضي نموّه المستمرّ إلى تحوّل تدريجي في موازين القوى لغير مصلحة إسرائيل والهيمنة الأميركية في منطقتنا.

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Imam Khamenei’s Advisor: US Attack on Iran Could Trigger ‘Full-Fledged’ Regional War

Imam Khamenei’s Advisor: US Attack on Iran Could Trigger ‘Full-Fledged’ Regional War

By Staff, Agencies

A military advisor to Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei warns that an act of military aggression by the US against Iran that could lead to an even limited conflict is likely to set off a full-scale war that would afflict other parts of the region too.

The remarks were made by Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan, defense minister during Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s previous tenure and former commander of the Air Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps [IRGC]. He made the comments to the Associated Press on Wednesday that the news agency published a day later.

“A limited, tactical conflict can turn into a full-fledged war,” Dehqan said.

He, however, not only clearly distanced Iran from any intention to trigger such a conflict, but also cautioned strongly about such confrontation’s repercussions for the region and, by extension, the world.

“We don’t welcome a crisis. We don’t welcome war. We are not after starting a war,” he said.

“Definitely, the United States, the region, and the world cannot stand such a comprehensive crisis,” the military expert noted.

He, accordingly, warned against any American military escalation in President Donald Trump’s final weeks in office.

Dehqan, meanwhile, addressed the likelihood of fresh negotiations with the US and the quality that such talks could partake of.

He reminded that the US’ atrocities under Trump had made it extremely difficult for Iran to accept its return to the negotiation table. Among the rest, he referred to the US’ assassination of Iran’s senior anti-terror commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani on Trump’s direct order near Baghdad airport in January.

He called the IRGC’s retaliatory missile strikes against US bases in Iraq that came almost immediately after the assassination a mere “initial slap,” and asserted that the Islamic Republic continued to seek the expulsion of all American forces from the region as revenge for the barbaric assassination.

“We do not seek a situation in which [the other party] buys time to weaken our nation,” he also said – apparently signaling that Tehran would not tolerate any American trickery in the event of any fresh talks – and said, “We are not after negotiations for the sake of negotiations either.”

Further, the advisor reiterated the country’s principled stance that its missile power is non-negotiable due to its forming part of Iran’s “deterrent” might.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran will not negotiate its defensive power … with anybody under any circumstances,” Dehqan said. “Missiles are a symbol of the massive potential that is possessed by our experts, young people, and industrial centers.”

The official also warned about the “Israeli” entity’s regional expansionist ambitions that saw the regime normalizing its relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan earlier in the year. Dehqan warned that the ambitious march was a “strategic mistake” that could put Tel Aviv in a parlous state.

“It is opening an extensive front,” he said. “Just imagine every ‘Israeli’ in any military base can be a target for groups who are opposed to ‘Israel’”.

Separately, the official said the United Nations nuclear agency could keep monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities as long as no inspector is a “spy.” He was seemingly referring to a case of apparent attempted sabotage last year that came amid the US and the “Israeli” entity’s escalated attempts at demonizing Iran’s nuclear energy program.

Last November, Iran revealed that a detector for explosive nitrates had gone off at the country’s Natanz uranium enrichment plant when an inspector with the watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, attempted to enter the facility on October 28.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s envoy to the agency, noted back then that the woman “sneaked out” to the bathroom while officials looked for a female employee to search her.

After her return, he added, the alarms did not go off again, but authorities found contamination in the bathroom and later on her empty handbag during a house search.

When exactly did the AngloZionist Empire collapse?

“”the exact moment when the Empire collapsed: 8 January 2020. What happened that day? Following the murder of Major General Qasem Soleimani in a US drone attack (on the 3 of January 2020) the Iranians retaliated by using missiles to attack several US bases in Iraq.” The Saker

ٍSource

When exactly did the AngloZionist Empire collapse?

[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]

I remember one evening in distant 1991, I was sitting with a few friends in the SAIS cafeteria discussing the future of the United States with a few very smart students, including a Pakistani Army Colonel, a US captain who served on aircraft carriers and a Spanish diplomat: we all agreed that “the system” was perfect, so to speak, and that the US would only collapse if a strong external shock would hit it hard. We all agreed that the combination of the best propaganda machine in history, the stupidification resulting from many daily hours of watching the Idiot Tube and, finally, a very effective repression apparatus made for a quasi perfect dictatorship: the one which only gives the illusion of democracy and people power.

Years later, in 2017, I read by J.M. Greer’s brilliant book “Twilight’s Last Gleaming” which I later reviewed here. I would say that this book is one of the best one written on the topic of a future US collapse, even though this is a (very well written) fiction book because it brilliantly illustrates the kind of mindset which can get a supposed superpower in a very bad situation.

To me, this all made perfect sense, but only because I, and my SAIS friends, never even considered the possibility that the US Nomenklatura would commit national suicide and, in the process, bring down the AngloZionist Empire.

Yet this is exactly what happened.

So when did all this begin?

There are many possible answers to this question. Some say with the murder of Kennedy. Others point to Clinton, whose Presidency inaugurated a policy of armed imperialism all over the planet; this administration was also the first one to witness a major “coming out” of the Neocons (many of which had already infiltrated the GOP during Reagan). Then there is 9/11 with the subsequent GWOT. As I said, these are all valid candidates, and there are many more.

My personal view is that the main initiation of collapse was under Barack Obama, a truly exceptionally weak President who would have made an absolutely terrific used cars salesman, but who as a President lost control of his own country and even his own administration. It was under Obama that we saw the vacuum at the top resulting in various agencies (DoS, DoD, CIA, Pentagon, etc.) all developing their own “foreign policies” which resulted in total chaos on the foreign policy front. Needless to say, having harpies such as Hillary Clinton or Susan Rice or Samantha Power involved did not help!

What is it with western women which makes them become even more bellicose than men when they reach a position of power?! Looking at women like Thatcher or Hillary, I wonder if these women are not carefully selected precisely for their nasty character and need to prove themselves as “equal” to men by being even more nasty and murderous than male politicians…

Since his election, it has become very popular to blame Donald Trump for everything which went wrong under his Presidency and, indeed, there is much which ought to be blamed on him. But what so many people overlook is that almost everything which went wrong under Trump began with Obama! When Trumps says that he inherited an awful mess, he is absolutely correct. Not that this absolves him from his own contribution to chaos and collapse!

And, in truth, the biggest difference between Obama and Trump, is that Trump did not start any real wars. Yes, he did threaten a lot of countries with military attacks (itself a crime under international law), but he never actually gave the go ahead to meaningfully attack (he only tried some highly symbolic and totally ineffective strikes in Syria). I repeat – the man was one of the very few US Presidents who did not commit the crime of aggression, the highest possible crime under international law, above crimes against humanity or even genocide, because the crime of aggression “contains within itself the accumulated evil”, to use the words words of the chief US prosecutor at Nuremberg and Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, Robert H. Jackson. I submit that just for this reason alone any decent person should choose him over Biden (who himself is just a front for “President” Harris and a puppet of the Clinton gang). Either that, or don’t vote at all if your conscience does not allow you to vote for Trump. But voting Biden is unthinkable for any honest person, at least in my humble opinion.

In the Trump years something absolutely amazing happened: while Trump and his administration were busy destroying the Empire externally, the Dems put all the energy and resources into destroying Trump. However, to paraphrase a quote by the Russian author Zinoviev, “they targeted at Trump but they hit the United States” (Zinoviev’s quote was about the putative anti-Soviets: “Метили в коммунизм, а попали в Россию” which can be translated as “they were aiming at Communism, but they hit Russia”).

What took place next was precisely what my SAIS friends and I could never have imagined: the US ruling elites committed collective suicide.

Suicide is typically executed in three phases: decision to commit suicide, the act of suicide itself, and then death. If we accept that the decision to engage in behavior which can only be described as suicidal was taken sometime during the Obama years, then this begs the question of where we are now. In other words, has the Empire already died or is it still only in agony?

I was asking myself that question the other day when I suddenly realized that I might have determined the exact moment when the Empire collapsed: 8 January 2020.

What happened that day?

Following the murder of Major General Qasem Soleimani in a US drone attack (on the 3 of January 2020) the Iranians retaliated by using missiles to attack several US bases in Iraq. According to the US side, there were only minor injuries, which is very likely since the Iranians warned the US by several backdoor channels what they were planning on doing. This argument was used by Trump and his supporters to say that the Iranian reaction was lame, ineffective and could be completely ignored.

In my opinion, the moment when the Trump Administration made this statement is when the death certificate of the Empire was signed. Why?

First, the low number of US casualties (probably higher than the official one, US troops were evacuated and treated in several countries) is due to only to the fact that Iranians are superb strategists: they realized that killing a lot of US soldiers would force Trump to strongly retaliate, so they chose not to kill them. Instead, they put a gun to their collective heads. How?

Think about it: the Iranian counter-strike showed the entire world something which most people did not realize: Iranian missiles (ballistic and cruise) were much more accurate than previously thought. In fact, they clearly have some form of terminal guidance. Simply put, the Iranians have proven that they can very precisely, deliver a warhead of several hundred pounds of high explosives pretty much anywhere in the Middle East. To give you a visual idea of their current coverage check out this page.

This bears repeating: the Iranians have now proven that they can place several hundred pounds of high explosives anywhere in the Middle-East with a CEP of about 3-5 meters!

Remember the Khobar Towers bombing? Yes, this was a truck bomb with much more explosives than a missile can carry (by at least an order of magnitude), but that truck was also parked far away from the towers! Yet just under 500 people died that day.

There are plenty of similar US military installations in the Middle-East, many buildings housing hundreds of US servicemen. Just imagine what would have happened if the Iranians had decided to take out as many lives as possible and placed a couple of their missiles right on top of, say, 10 such facilities – just imagine the cost in lives!

But the Iranians are smart, and they chose a much wiser course of action: they used their missiles essentially to kick Uncle Shmuel where it hurts, but they mainly demonstrated their ability to create thousands of US casualties in just a few minutes.

Obviously, another, now undeniable, Iranian capability is the ability to instantly destroy any gas/oil facility in the region: wells, processing facilities, terminals – you name it: if it is important and expensive, the Iranians can destroy it.

The Iranians also have the ability to close down the Strait of Hormuz and even to attack USN ships, possibly including carriers.

Last, but certainly not least, this now proven Iranian capability puts every government building in danger, along with any crucial facility (Dimona anybody?).

At this point of the conversation all the well-propagandized flag-waving morons will immediately stand up and declare something along these lines:

“So what?! If these sand-niggers cross the line they know that we can massively bomb them! Heck, we can even nuke them and send them back to the stone age! Let them try and they will see what the wrath of the most powerful nation on earth, with the most formidable military in history, can do to a bunch of semi-literate peasants, LOL! Let see if their “Allah” will save them!”

Apart from all the ignorant cliches typically spewed by this crowd, there is a major analytical error underlying this “logic” (I use the term generously): the Iranians have lived with this threat since 1979 and they are used to it. Not only that, but they know for a fact that these are empty threats. Oh sure, the US can do to Iran what “Israel” did to Lebanon in the course of the “Divine Victory” war of 2006, or what NATO has done to Serbia during the Kosovo war (1998-1999): kill civilians and destroy the country’s infrastructure to punish these civilians for supporting the “wrong” (i.e. not US approved) government. But if Uncle Shmuel does to Iran what Israel did to Lebanon, the result will be the same: the Iranians will rebuild (they are very good at that) and they will bounce back twice as strong. As for their martyrs, the more there will be, the stronger the Iranian people’s resistance (check this article written by an Iranian scholar in excellent English explaining the roots of the unique ethos of Shia Islam).

Last, but also not least, the US Presidents and their aides are quite aware of the current state of the US military: it is a military which simply cannot win even simple conflicts, a military hopelessly gutted by insane liberal ideologies, a military whose entire surface fleet has been made obsolete by hypersonic missiles (which the Iranians also seem to be working on!) and a military whose Air Force spent absolutely obscene amounts of money to create a supposedly “5th generation” fighter which in many ways is inferior to US 4th generation aircraft!

This begs the question of what still works in the US military. In my opinion, the US submarine fleet is still very powerful, and the US nuclear deterrence posture is still solid. Other than that? Meh…

Bottom line: the arguments that the US did not retaliate because it did not care, or that it does not care because “we can nuke them” are typically civilian nonsense which have no connection whatsoever to the real world (just imagine the political consequences for the already highly unpopular US following a nuclear strike, especially on a non-nuclear country!)

Okay, but then why did the US not retaliate?

Simply put, because Uncle Shmuel does not have what it takes to take on Iran. Heck, Uncle Shmuel can’t even take on Venezuela (!), which is an extremely weakened country right on the US’s door step. Frankly, if this or the next President decides that the US needs to “pick up a crappy little country and throw it against a wall just to prove we are serious” then I recommend Grenada. I know, Grenada was basically undefended in 1983 (mainly by a few lightly armed Cuban engineers) and it took the 82nd airborne to rescue the totally defeated and clueless US special forces stuck under fire, but I think that since 1983 the Pentagon had the time to make a some “lessons learned” exercises and that by now the US probably could re-invade this tiny island without repeating one of the worst disasters in military history.

Conclusion

The Empire died on the day the Iranians hit these US facilities and the US did absolutely nothing. In fact, since that date, what have we seen:

  • The Iraqis are slowly but surely kicking the US forces out of Iraq
  • The number of attacks against US forces in Iraq has sharply increased, including against the massive US bunker complex known as “the Green Zone” which now is not “green” at all.
  • The Iranians are merrily continuing to make fun of Uncle Shmuel.
  • The US failed at renewing the anti-Iran sanctions at the UN Security Council and Russia has already declared that she is willing to sell S-400s to Iran. You can also count China in this great weapons market.
  • The US is also in retreat in Syria where anti-US attacks are becoming more dangerous (and regular clashes with ground forces of the Russian task force in Syria are also becoming a potentially very dangerous phenomenon).
  • In Yemen, the Iranian backed Houthis have basically won the war and defeated both the KSA and the US.
  • In Afghanistan, the US and its “coalition of the losers” has stayed even longer than the Soviets and has achieved exactly nothing except a total and most humiliating defeat. The contrast between the performance of the Soviet 40th Army (poorly equipped and averagely commanded) force of conscripts and what the lavishly equipped (but also poorly commanded) US professional force achieved is absolutely amazing on all levels, but the most telling is how much the Soviets actually built in Afghanistan (even facilities that the US still uses every day!). Uncle Shmuel only destroyed everything except the opium trade…

In other words, everything is going exactly according to the announced Iranian game plan to completely kick the US out of the Middle-East. I know, this seems unthinkable right now, but please make the list of all the putatively “unthinkable” things which have since happened and you will see how dangerous it is to assume that something will never happen.

When Georgia attacked the Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinval there were also limited casualties, but Russia immediately counter-attacked defeated in Georgian military in 3 days, and that in spite of being numerically smaller (at least in the initial phases of the counter-attack) and too slow to react (a typical Russian weakness). And the message to “to whom it may concern” sent by the Russian counter-attack was simple: attack a Russian base, or kill Russian soldiers and you will be killed: every time a Russian serviceman has been killed in Syria the Russians retaliate with strong missiles and air strikes. In other instances Russian Spetsnaz units killed selective Takfiri commanders. And everybody “got it”, even the Turks who have not been able to force the Russian to stop shrinking their areas of control in Syria to a small fraction of what it used to be.

Mind you – Russia has no desire to become an Empire or even some kind of superpower (Russians realize how evil any empire is for the country which is supposed to host it: they suffered for over 300 years in this toxic status of “empire” and they had enough! Only dumb Hillary and even dumber Brzezinski still thought that Russia wanted to “rebuild the USSR” when, in fact, Putin’s policies were designed to disengage and separate from the former Russian periphery which only drained immense Russian ressources and never gave Russia anything useful (and nevermind the Warsaw Treaty Organization which was just as ressources-consuming and useless as the periphery). All they want is being taken seriously and treated with respect, not as a superpower, but simply as a major, but truly sovereign, power.

Compare that with the unique blend of stratospheric megalomania, narcissistic self-worship and crass ignorance of the leaders of the US and you immediately see that the Empire is not dying anymore, it is already dead and has been dead for many months now.

What comes next?

Well, the election of course. I submit that under no scenario will the next administration be able to reverse that course and somehow miraculously resurrect the Empire. Empires don’t resurrect. It has been tried in the past (even by Napoleon), it never works. Once empires lose momentum and, especially, their ideological credibility, they are over. Oh sure, a dead body still can emit some heat for a while, some organs, or even cells, can work for a while longer, but dead is dead. Mostly dead bodies bloat and stink, which also applies to dead empires.

This is not to say that the outcome will not matter, it will – but only for the future of the United States themselves. Simply put, the upcoming vote is either a vote for upholding law and order in the US, or for total nihilism. On a deeper level, it is a vote for the US or against it: the Dems all hate this country and its “deplorables”; they also hate almost every aspect of US history (overturned statues are but symbols of this hatred) and they hate what they call “a racist system” in spite of the fact that the real causes of racial tensions in the US have very little to do with the “system” and everything to do with the unique problems of blacks in a culture with mainly European roots.

The Empire is dead. And I hope and believe that its death will mark the rebirth of the United States as a “normal” country (which is what happened to all the other former empires).

Until that happens, we can now at least rest assured that this amazingly evil Empire has finally died, even if very few noticed this.

P.S. While writing this column my thoughts turned to Major General Qasem Soleimani, who was cowardly murdered (he was on a diplomatic mission) by Trump. I imagined what he would have said if somebody had offered him the following deal: Haj Qasem – would you agree to be murdered by the modern Crusaders if your martyrdom would turn out to be the “straw” which will break the Empire’s “camel” back? I think that he would reply with tears of joy in his eyes “Glory be to God for allowing me this immense honor and joy and for allowing me to become a shadid (God’s witness)!” Soleimani was a soldier, the real thing, not a disguised businessman or politician, and he knew that he could die literally every moment of his life. He died as a general in charge of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and of its elite Quds Force. It sure looks to me that Trump in his ignorant arrogance gave Soleimani the best death he could have wished for. May this great man rest in peace!

“هآرتس”: الصاروخ يلوي ذنب الطائرة

المصدر: هآرتس

الكاتب: اللواء إحتياط إسحاق بريك

16 تشرين اول 13:36

صحيفة “هآرتس” تنشر مقالاً للواء احتياط إسحاق بريك يتحدث فيه عن أن سلاح الجو الإسرائيلي لا يمكنه توفير استجابة مناسبة في حربٍ متعددة الساحات، تُطلق فيها آلاف الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية كل يوم على “الداخل الإسرائيلي”.

ذكرت صحيفة “هآرتس” الإسرائيلية أنه وقبل سنوات طويلة “فهم الإيرانيون أنه من الأفضل لهم بناء تشكيل صواريخ وقذائف صاروخية حول حدود “إسرائيل” بدل صيانة أسلحة جو كبيرة وقوية”. وفيما يلي النص المترجم للمقال:

هذا الفهم ينبع من عدة أسباب:

“إسرائيل” لديها سلاح جو قوي وطائرات من الطراز الأول في العالم، مع طيارين أصحاب خبرة قتالية غنية، من الأفضل في العالم، وقدرة تفوق بعشرات المرات قدرات أسلحة جو الدول العربية التي تحيط بها.

الإيرانيون فهموا أنه لا يمكن تزويد  حماس والجهاد الإسلامي في قطاع غزة وحزب الله في لبنان، بطائرات حربية ضد الطائرات الحربية لـ “إسرائيل”. في المقابل، تقدّم تطوير الصواريخ في العالم وفي إيران أوصل إلى قدرات تفوق بمعايير كثيرة قدرات الطائرات.

وفيما يلي أساسها:

1-

تكلفات منخفضة نسبياً، كونه لا حاجة لشراء طائرات، ولا طيارين متمرسين، ولا تدريبات طيران وصيانة جارية للطائرات والمدارج – وكل هذا يستلزم نفقاتٍ طائلة في البنى التحتية والقوة البشرية.

2-

إطلاق الصواريخ لا يتطلب الكثير من التمرس والمهنية، الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية الأحدث، لمدايات طويلة ومتوسطة وقصيرة، برؤوسٍ حربية تزن مئات الكيلوغرامات، وقدرة دقيقة لأمتارٍ معدودة من الهدف، يمكن أن يطلقها فلّاحون.

والدليل: الصواريخ الدقيقة التي أصابت من مدى مئات الكيلومترات منشآت النفط في السعودية، وأوقعت فيها أضراراً هائلة أطلقنها جماعة أنصار الله، تقريباً من دون بذل جهدٍ كبير على فريق إطلاق الصواريخ.

3-

إطلاق الصواريخ من مدايات بعيدة ومتوسطة وقصيرة نحو تجمعاتٍ سكانية، أهداف استراتيجية، بنى تحتية اقتصادية أو مراكز سلطة، لا يتطلب وقتاً كثيراً للاستعداد، ويمكن فعله خلال وقتٍ قصير من لحظة اتخاذ قرار إطلاقها.

4-

مدة تحليق الصواريخ الثقيلة من مدى مئات الكيلومترات قصيرة جداً، عدة دقائق فقط، وهي ذات قدرة إصابة دقيقة. في المقابل، تفعيل طائرات لمدى مئات الكيلومترات هو عملية معقدة جداً، أولاً، تتطلب وقتاً أطول بكثير. رحلة ذهاب وإياب تطول ساعات، وتتطلب تخطيطاً دقيقاً ومرتبطة بمخاطر. ثانياً، كما قلنا، كلفة كل رحلة باهظة. وثالثاً، عدد الصواريخ الذكية التي تستطيع الطائرة حملها محدود.

لهذه الأسباب، نشأت مشكلة استراتيجية: سلاح الجو لا يمكنه توفير استجابة مناسبة في حربٍ متعددة الساحات، تُطلق فيها آلاف الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية كل يوم على الداخل الإسرائيلي.

لسنواتٍ طويلة بنت القيادة العسكرية والسياسية مفهوماً يفيد أن سلاح الجو هو العامل الحاسم في ميدان القتال، وهو ليس كذلك.

حتى لو لم يقولوا هذا على الملأ، الوقائع على الأرض تدل على ذلك ألف دلالة. حتى في حرب يوم الغفران فشل سلاح الجو فشلاً ذريعاً أمام صواريخ الأرض – جو التي أطلقها المصريون.

السلاح أعدّ نفسه لحربٍ مضت، وليس للحرب المقبلة. لأسفي، المقاربة نفسها قائمة اليوم أيضاً.

في حرب لبنان الثانية عام تموز 2006، نجح سلاح الجو في ضرب الصواريخ الثقيلة والبعيدة المدى لحزب الله وتحييد غالبيتها، لكنه لم ينجح في وقف قصف الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية للمدى القصير والمتوسط طوال أيام الحرب.

بحسب التقديرات، حوالى الـ300 ألف من سكان الشمال غادروا منازلهم إلى وسط البلاد في حرب لبنان الثانية.

في الحرب المقبلة لن يكون لسكان الشمال مكان يُخلون إليه، لأن مئات الصواريخ ستصيب أيضاً وسط البلاد في كل يوم، سيما صواريخ ثقيلة (التي تحمل مئات الكيلوغرامات من المواد المتفجرة) ودقيقة.

اليوم يوجد لدى حزب الله وحماس عشرات آلاف الصواريخ لمدايات بعيدة، التي تغطّي كل مراكزنا السكانية: غوش دان (الوسط وضمنه تل أبيب)، خليج حيفا، القدس، والمئات منها دقيقة.

حتى لو نجحنا في تدمير 60% من هذه الصواريخ فإن الـ40% المتبقية ستُعيد “إسرائيل” عشرات السنين إلى الوراء: ستصيب البنى التحتية للكهرباء، المياه، الوقود، الصناعة والاقتصاد، وقواعد سلاح الجو وأسلحة البر، مراكز السلطة، المطارات، وأهداف استراتيجية أخرى وتجمعات سكانية.

إطلاق حماس والجهاد الإسلامي الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية على غلاف غزة، وأحياناً حتى على وسط البلاد، أثبت دون أدنى شك أن سلاح الجو لوحده لا يمكنه ان ينتصر.

في الحقيقة، حتى يومنا هذا لم يُفلح في وقف نيران الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية. حماس والجهاد، بإرادتهما تبدآن بقصف مستوطناتنا، وبإرادتهما تتوقفان، وليس بوسع سلاح الجو أن يخلّصنا.

في كل الجولات القتالية تقريباً لم يُقتل لهما مقاتلين، لأنهم يختبئون في مدينة الأنفاق التي بنوها تحت الأرض. إذا أصابت قنابل سلاح الجو الإسرائيلي في الحرب المقبلة سكاناً أبرياء في غزة، الأمر سيخدم حماس والجهاد الإسلامي لأن هذا سيثير العالم ضدنا.

المعركة بين الحروب الدائرة منذ سنوات، تصرف انتباه قادة الجيش والسياسيين عن إعداد الجيش الإسرائيلي للحرب المقبلة.

مؤخراً انبرى الناطق باسم الجيش بمنشور عن آلاف القنابل والصواريخ (بتكلفة مليارات الشواكل)، التي أطلقتها طائراتنا على أهدافٍ سورية منذ سنة 2017 إلى اليوم. لكن هذا القصف لم يوقف التمركز الإيراني في سوريا، وكذلك لم يغير بصورة جوهرية التهديد الوجودي على “إسرائيل”، الكامن في مئات آلاف الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية الجاهزة لدى العدو من حول “إسرائيل”، في إيران ولدى حلفائها، وضمنها آلاف الصواريخ الدقيقة.

حتى لو أُطلقت فقط عشرات الصواريخ الدقيقة إلى أهدافٍ استراتيجية وتجمعات سكانية، يمكن أن يُنزلوا بـ”إسرائيل” ضربة فتاكة. ورغم هذا، ورغم أن الكلفة – الجدوى للمعركة بين الحروب من منظورٍ استراتيجي هي منخفضة – أُنفقت فيها ميزانيات ضخمة.

كان بالإمكان استثمار جزء من هذه المليارات على الأقل في الذراع البرية، في إقامة سلاح صواريخ هجومية وفي وسائل أكثر نجاعة لتدمير صواريخ العدو وهي تحلق.

في الحرب المقبلة، يُحتمل واقعاً لم يسبق أن اختبر سلاح الجو مثيلاً له – إطلاق العدو لصواريخ دقيقة على قواعده. هذا القصف سيُلحق أضراراً شديدة بمدارج الإقلاع وبالقواعد، بصورة يمكن أن تُضر بشدة بوتيرة إقلاع الطائرات لمهاجمة أهداف العدو. من أجل التغلب سريعاً على أضرارٍ كهذه، مطلوب قدرة عالية من الطواقم، وتأهيل عالٍ في كل قواعد سلاح الجو، المسؤولين عن ضمان الاستمرارية الوظيفية، الذي يعني تصليح المدارج المتضررة من الصواريخ، وجمع الشظايا، وإخلاء الجرحى، وإطفاء حرائق وغير ذلك.

قبل سنة كنا شهوداً على سخرية الاستمرارية الوظيفية في قاعدة سلاح الجو في “حاتسور”، في السيل الذي غرقت فيه 8 طائرات حربية وتضررت. تبين عدم تنفيذ الأوامر والإجراءات بسبب الإهمال وعدم الانصياع. هذه كانت المرة الثالثة التي تحدث فيها حادثة خطيرة كهذه في القاعدة نفسها، والدروس لم تُطبّق. من يضمن لنا أن هذا الوضع الخطير غير قائم في قواعد أخرى لسلاح الجو؟

الجيش الإسرائيلي وضع كل بيضه في سلة سلاح الجو، في إنفاقات ضخمة على حساب بقية عناصر المنظومة، ضمن إلحاق ضرر بالذراع البرية ووضعه جانباً فكرة إقامة سلاح صواريخ.

الذراع البرية سُحقت في السنوات الأخيرة، من جراء تقليصات غير مسؤولة في نظم القوات للوحدات القتالية، ونقص في التدريب وعدم قدرة على الصيانة كما يجب للوسائط في مخازن الطوارئ، بسبب تقليصات هاذية في القوة البشرية في الخدمة الدائمة والنظامية. سلاح الجو يتمتع بأفضلية غير متناسبة في قبال الأذرع الأخرى للجيش. هذه الأفضلية تؤدي بالجيش الإسرائيلي إلى وضعٍ حرج من عدم الجهوزية للحرب المقبلة، وهذا على الرغم من أن سلاح الجو لا يوفّر جواباً في حماية أجواء الدولة من صواريخ العدو.

منظومة الدفاع التي بناها الجيش الإسرائيلي ضد صواريخ العدو – “القبة الحديدية”، “حِتْس”، و”العصا السحرية” – هي الأخرى لا توفّر استجابة كافية بسبب الكلفة الهائلة لكل صاروخ (صاروخ “حِتْس” يكلّف 3 ملايين دولار، وصاروخ “القبة الحديدية” يكلّف 100 ألف دولار). الكلفة الهائلة لهذه الصواريخ لا تسمح بالاحتفاظ بمخازن كبيرة. لحظة تندلع الحرب، ستنفذ مخازن الصواريخ خلال وقتٍ قصير. إذاً، ليس هناك قدرة على الانتصار من دون عملية مشتركة بين الذراع البرية وذراع الجو والفضاء، ضمن دفاعٍ مناسب عن الجبهة الداخلية.

أفيغدور ليبرمان، عندما كان وزيراً للأمن، بادر إلى إقامة سلاح الصواريخ، من أجل تحسين القدرة الهجومية للجيش الإسرائيلي لمدايات متوسطة مع قدرة إصابة دقيقة، في أوقاتٍ قصير جداً من لحظة اتخاذ قرار بإطلاقها، ومن خلال ذلك وضع تهديداً مشابه أمام تهديد العدو الذي يضعه أمامنا. لكن بسبب المفهوم الخاطئ للجيش الإسرائيلي، بتوجيهٍ من القائد الأعلى لسلاح الجو، يضعون غالبية الموارد في سلة واحدة – سلاح الجو.

هذه الرؤية لا تسمح بتفكيرٍ مبدع، وهي تُبقي “إسرائيل” بعيدة خلف دول أحسنت مواءمة جيشها لحروب المستقبل، ضمن حفاظٍ على توازنٍ أصح بين حجم سلاح الجو وبين تشكيلات حيوية أخرى، مثل سلاح الصواريخ والذراع البرية. بعد أن أنهى ليبرمان مهامه كوزيرٍ للأمن، وُضعت خطته في الدُرج لأنها لم تناسب المفهوم الذي نمّاه سلاح الجو طوال السنين، وبحسبه هو العامل الحاسم في حروب “إسرائيل”، ولا يمكن من دونه، (لا سمح الله ان يأخذوا ميزانيات شراء طائرات جديدة إلى تشكيل الصواريخ الجديد، الذي تفوق نجاعته نجاعة الطائرات بعشرات الأضعاف ضد أهدافٍ في عمق تشكيلات العدو).

الرؤية السائدة اليوم وسط القيادة العليا للجيش الإسرائيلي وجزء من أعضاء الحكومة هي أن سلاح الجو هو جيش “إسرائيل”. رغم أن هذه الرؤية قد عفا عليها الزمن، إنها مستمرة في الوجود بسبب غطرسة و”أنا” قادة سلاح الجو الكبار، غير المستعدين للتنازل عن الأسطورة التي صنعوها.

إنهم يقاتلون كيلا ينتقل شيكل واحد إلى تشكيلاتٍ أخرى على حساب ميزانيات شراء طائرات جديدة. وينضم إلى هذا ضعف رئيس الأركان أمام المفهوم الخاطئ بأن سلاح الجو يمكنه أن يوفّر استجابة مناسبة في حربٍ متعددة الساحات.

كثير من القادة الكبار السابقين في سلاح الجو، الذين قاتلوا في حروب “إسرائيل”، يعتقدون شيئاً آخرَ. في أحاديث معهم يقولون لي كلاماً قاسياً جداً عن مسلكية القيادة العليا في سلاح الجو اليوم، وعن انعدام مرونتها وعدم فهمها لميدان القتال المستقبلي، انطلاقاً من رؤية تُشرك أسلحة أخرى.

إلى اليوم، ليس هناك تعاون في التدريبات بين الذراع البرية وبين ذراع الجو والفضاء، باستثناء حالاتٍ قليلة جداً من التعاون بين الذراع البرية والمروحيات الهجومية. كل ذراع تعمل على حدا. هذا الوضع أضر بشدة بنجاعة الجيش في الحروب السابقة، وبالتأكيد سيضر بشدة في نجاعته في الحروب القادمة.

أيضاً في كعكة الميزانيات ليس هناك توازن بين ذراعي البر والجو، ولا تناول مناسب لرّد هجومي ودفاعي ضد صواريخ العدو، وهذا الوضع يودي بالجيش الإسرائيلي بمجمله إلى عدم جهوزية للحرب المقبلة. لم نستخلص العِبَر من حروب الماضي، ولا نستعد كما هو مطلوب للمستقبل.

ليس هناك عقيدة أمنية تقود قرارات القيادة العليا – فببساطة، هذه العقيدة غير موجودة. ما يقود رؤساء الأركان والقيادة العليا هو نزوات تؤدي إلى تغييرات مبالغ فيها بين رئيس أركان والذي يليه، التي تقطع في لحظة واحدة التواصل في بناء الجيش وفي إعداده لحرب. الأمر الوحيد الذي يشترك فيه الجميع هو إعطاء أفضلية لسلاح الجو. الحرب التي ستأتي ستكون أصعب من كل الحروب، والجيش غير جاهزٍ للتحدّي.

سيّد الكرامة وروح المسؤوليّة

ناصر قنديل

لم يكن ممكناً أن يمرّ كلام الرئيس الفرنسي أمانويل ماكرون، بما فيه من رواية لوقائع مفاوضات تأليف الحكومة التي تولاها علناً الرئيس المكلّف مصطفى أديب، وقادها فعلياً نادي رؤساء الحكومات السابقين كحزب حاكم جديد، من دون أن تقدّم المقاومة وحزب الله رواية موازية من موقع الشريك الكامل في صناعة الوقائع، والشاهد عن كثب وقرب لهذه الوقائع، ومن طالته سهام الاتهام وفقاً لرواية ماكرون. كما لم يكن ممكناً كلام ماكرون ألا يلقى تعليقاً وتفنيداً وتحليلاً من جانب حزب الله، طالما أن المعلوم للقاصي والداني، أنه كما كانت الأزمة التي تعصف بلبنان في شق رئيسيّ منها ثمرة قرار أميركي بإسقاط لبنان أملاً بأن يسقط حزب الله، وفقاً لكلام حرفي قاله ماكرون، فإن المبادرة الفرنسية التي قادها ماكرون تتركّز بنسبة كبيرة منها على فتح الطريق لمقاربة مختلفة للعلاقة مع حزب الله، وبالتالي يحتل حزب الله موقعاً موازياً لموقع ماكرون في الوقوف على طرفي ثنائية تمسك بخيوط المشهد، ما يعني أن مسار المقاربة للعلاقة الفرنسية بحزب الله يشكل المحور الحاكم لمسار المبادرة الفرنسيّة. وبعد سماع كلام ماكرون، لا بد من أن يخرج صوت حزب الله، لتكتمل صورة الثنائية وتتركز عناصر المعادلة.

بالتوازي مع هذا الاعتبار السياسي يحضر بقوة اعتبار أخلاقي ومعنوي وقيمي، ربما تزيد قيمته عن قيمة الاعتبار السياسي، فالحزب الذي يمثل المقاومة بكل قيمها وروح التضحية التي تمثلها، لن يصمت وقد تركزت عليه سهام ماكرون بصفته واحداً من أحزاب السلطة، ومن المتربّحين من المال العام، والمتعيّشين على المصالح الطائفية، والذين يفضلون مصالحهم على حساب مصالح شعبهم، وصولاً للدفع بحزب الله الأبعد بين أقرانه عن السلطة ومغانمها ومكاسبها وفسادها، لتصدُّر واجهة المستهدفين بالتهم السوداء، خصوصاً عندما يكون الاتهام بهذه اللغة الرعناء، وهذا التعالي المفعم بروح المستعمر، وعقل الوصاية، وما بين السطور من أستذة تدعو المقاومة للاختيار بين ما أسماه ماكرون بالخيار الأسوأ، وبين الديمقراطية، لمقاومة نال حزبها الرئيسي ديمقراطياً أعلى نسبة تصويت بين الأحزاب اللبنانية.

إطلالة الأمين العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصرالله التي جاءت في سياق ممارسة هذا الحق وهذا الواجب، تضمنت من حيث الشكل تحجيماً لكلام ماكرون، حيث توزع كلام السيد نصرالله على ملفات عدة، من تعزية الكويت برحيل أميرها، إلى تنامي خطر داعش منذ جريمة داعش الإرهابية في بلدة كفتون، وصولاً للتوقف بلغة التحدي أمام مزاعم رئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو حول وجود مستودعات صواريخ في منطقة الجناح قرب منشآت الغاز، فكانت دعوة فورية لوسائل الإعلام للملاقاة في المكان، إسقاطاً لمشروع تشويش على الإطلالة أراده نتنياهو قبل دقائق من موعدها، ليأتي الردّ على طريق يوم ساعر، انظروا إليها إنها في البحر تحترق، ليصل بهدوء إلى الملف الحكومي وفي قلبه كلام ماكرون، وبدا أنه يتعمّد عدم منح كلام ماكرون مكانة الصدارة من خلال الدخول الى كلامه من سردية تفصيلية لمسار العملية الحكومية والتعامل مع المبادرة الفرنسية من جميع الأطراف ومن ضمنها حزب الله، وثنائي حزب الله وحركة أمل، كاشفاً بالتفاصيل كيف تحوّلت الحكومة من مشروع إنقاذ قائم على تشارك الجميع خارج قضايا الخلاف الى مشروع انقلاب واستفراد بالحكم من خراج الدستور والأعراف لصالح جهة ذات لون واحد سياسي وطائفي، بقوة التهديد بالعقوبات والعصا الفرنسية، وبتغطية فرنسيّة تحت شعار السعي لإنجاح المبادرة، بلغة التهديد بالعواقب الوخيمة، وصولاً لحكومة تستعيد مسار حكومة 5 أيار 2008، والتآمر على المقاومة، لتصير الحكومة حكومة مهمة حدّدها الملك سلمان بنزع سلاح حزب الله، وليست حكومة المهمة التي تحدّث عنها ماكرون ووافق عليها الجميع. وهذا ما لا يمكن التساهل مع تكراره مرة أخرى، فلن تقبل حكومة الانقلاب ولن تقبل حكومة توقِّع من دون نقاش على شروط مجحفة لصندوق النقد الدولي، أو حكومة تبيع اصول الدولة، وحكومة تفرض ضرائب مرهقة على اللبنانيين، وكل ذلك كان يجري بشراكة فرنسا وتحت عباءة تهديداتها، متسائلاً هنا من الذي لجأ للتهديد والترويع، فرنسا ماكرون أم حزب الله؟

بكل هدوء، انتقل السيد إلى مناقشة كلام الرئيس الفرنسي، طارحاً السؤال المفتاح، هل القضايا التي سقطت عندها الحكومة كانت من ضمن المبادرة الفرنسية، أم هي قضايا وعناوين ابتدعها نادي رؤساء الحكومات السابقين وحدهم، مورداً جواباً رسمياً فرنسياً يؤكد أن ما طرحه نادي الرباعي جاء من خارج المبادرة، ليسأل إذا كيف يكون الجميع مسؤولاً؟ والسؤال الأهم، ما هي عهود المقاومة التي تنكّرتْ لها، أليس ما قام به حزب الله وحلفاؤه ورئيس الجمهورية هو عين التسهيل المطلوب، وهو عين الوفاء بالوعود والعهود، وللمقاومة سجل حافل بمصداقية الوفاء بالوعود والعهود؟ أما الدعوة للاختيار بين ما أسماه ماكرون بالخيار الأسوأ والديمقراطية، فجوابها واضح بالتمسك بحقوق الغالبية النيابية بمنع انقلاب بعض الأقلية النيابية لوضع اليد على البلد في ظلال المبادرة الفرنسية عكس المسار الديمقراطي، والمقاومة عنوان خاطئ لكل توصيفات ماكرون حول الفساد والمصالح، وعنوان خاطئ حول السلاح وتوظيفه في السياسة، والمقاومة لم تشهر سلاحها إلا رداً لعدوان أو مواجهة لاحتلال، أو تصدياً لإرهاب.

تفوق السيد نصرالله على ماكرون بالقيمة المضافة لا بفائض القوة، بقوة الحق لا بحق القوة، بالوقائع والحقائق ودقة التدقيق لا بالمزاعم والتوهّمات والتلفيق. تفوّق السيد نصرالله بحفظ الكرامة من دون حرب، وخاض ماكرون حرباً فقد فيها كرامته، فرض السيد نصاً تفسيرياً لمبادرة خانها صاحبها، ووضع آلية لإنقاذها من تخاذل كان يصاحبها. ورسم السيد سياق الصداقة خارج نفاق المواربة خشية ترهيب أو طلباً لترغيب، وخسر ماكرون فرصة صداقة لأنه تحت ترهيب حليف وترغيب مغانم حليف آخر، لكن رغم كل ذلك مد السيد يده لكلمة سواء، وأغلق باب الهدم وفتح مجدداً باباً واسعاً لخيار البناء، فانتصر السيد بكلام في قمة المسؤولية من موقع خارج المسؤولية الرسمية على كلام بعيد عن المسؤولية من أعلى مواقع المسؤولية الرسمية، ورمى الكرة في ملعب ماكرون قائلاً، لمن قالوا إن كلمة ماكرون تعادل كش ملك لحزب الله، إن اللعبة مفتوحة ولم تنته، والرمية التالية لرئيس فرنسا فإن أحسن لاقيناه وإن أساء فليلاقينا.

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Hezbollah Invites Media Outlets to Inspect Site Falsely Claimed by Netanyahu as Missile Depot

Hezbollah flag

Hezbollah Media Relations Department issued a statement in which it invited the media outlets to inspect the Beirut site falsely claimed by the Zionist PM Benjamin Netanyahu as a missile Depot.

The statement added that the inspection visit, aimed at refuting Netanyhu’s claims, will be tonight at 22:00 (Local Time).

Netanyahu had alleged that Hezbollah stores missiles at a depot in a residential area in Jinah, adding that it lies near a gas facility and that its explosion will be similar to that of Beirut port.

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah announced the invitation during his televised speech, highlighting that it would be shortly after Netanyahu’s remarks so that the inspection will be very credible.

Video for Inspections will follow

Source: Hezbollah Media Relations (Translated by Al-Manar English Website)

Iran unveils new ‘Martyr Qassem Soleimani’ ballistic missile: video

By News Desk -2020-08-20

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired a missile from a launch site in the southern part of the Islamic Republic.

BEIRUT, LEBANON (2:45 P.M.) – On Thursday, the Iranian media published pictures of the stages of manufacturing, testing and launching the “Martyr Hajj Qassem” ballistic missile, which has a range of 1,400 km.

The Iranian Fars agency said, “The missile was unveiled this morning under the patronage of President Hassan Rouhani, referring to the video and pictures related to this missile.

Earlier today, Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami announced that it had reached the manufacture of a naval cruise missile with a range of 1,000 km in the name of “Martyr Abu Mahdi Al-Mohandis” and a ballistic missile with a range of 1,400 km in the name of “Martyr Hajj Qassem Soleimani”.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, during the Iranian Ministry of Defense’s unveiling of the domestically produced 700 turbofan engine, called on the neighboring countries “to be confident that Iran will not use its military power against it.”

He said that “Iran’s strategy of deterrence is defensive, and it does not follow the strategy of attacking any country,” noting that the “Iranian production, investigation and efforts in the defense field are part of the defensive deterrent strategy, and we do not have an offensive strategy,” the state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on Thursday.

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Posted on  by Elijah J Magnier

By Elijah J. Magnier: @ejmalrai

The US administration under Barack Obama drafted “Caesar’s Law” in 2016 to subdue Syria but kept it in the drawer. President Donald Trump and his administration dusted it off and are now implementing “Caesar’s Law”. In fact, Trump’s policy is manna to Iran: the US administration is playing straight into the hands of Tehran. Iran is reaping huge benefits, including more robust allies and resistant strongholds as a result of the US’s flawed Middle Eastern policies. Motivated by the threat of the implementation of “Caesar’ Law”, Iran has prepared a series of steps to sell its oil and finance its allies, bypassing depletion of its foreign currency reserves.

Iranian companies found in Syria a paradise for strategic investment and offered the needed alternative to a Syrian economy crippled by sanctions and nine years of war. Iran considers Syria a fertile ground to expand its commerce and business like never before. It has also found a way to support the Syrian currency and to avoid digging into its reserves of foreign currencies, skirting US sanctions in both Syria and Iran, while aiding the rest of its allies.

Iran supplied Syria with precision missiles and other anti-air missiles notwithstanding the hundreds of Israeli air attacks which managed to destroy large quantities of these Iranian advanced missiles but without removing the threat to Israel.

Moreover, following the announcement of the implementation of “Caesar’s Law”, Iran sent a large business delegation to Syria to schedule the supply of first necessities and goods in a time of sanctions. Iran has great expertise in this business and, after living for 40 years under sanctions, is in an excellent position to advise President Assad.

Russia also announced – via its vice Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov – that his country rejects the illegal sanctions on Syria, and that Russia will provide President Assad with whatever his country needs.

Idem in Syria: Iran proved its capability to break the fuel siege on Syria by sending several oil tankers to its ally in the Levant. Iran is ready to be paid in Syrian Lira rather than US currency for its oil. By doing this, Iran can pay its tens of thousands of allied persons spread across Syria with local currency, marginalising the US dollar.

In Iraq,

The US and Israel, who worked throughout the years of war in Syria to remove Iran, were in fact the impetus for Iran’s presence (and that of Russia) in the Levant in the first place. The US is now imposing “Caesar’s Law”, which will help Iran cement its presence in the Levant and Mesopotamia. It is planning to build a railway between Tehran and Damascus (and possibly Beirut): this axis will be able to transport hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil and tons of merchandise. The only way for the US to reduce the collateral damage is to finally accept that all of its “maximum pressure” and harshest sanctions on Iran and its allies have little chance of working. In the meantime, it is Iran that is moving ahead with a robust ring of allies, and the US and Israel which are left with Middle Eastern allies who are both inefficient and insignificant.

To my readers: I can no longer provide open access to my articles. When you subscribe, you are supporting the investigative journalism necessary for a robust understanding of what is happening in the Middle East. Thanks to those who can contribute.

Proofread by:  Maurice Brasher and C.G.B.

Copyright © https://ejmagnier.com   2020 

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“Mission Accomplished”… How Did Hezbollah Build Its New Equation?

By Charles Abi Nader

“Mission Accomplished”...   How Did Hezbollah Build Its New Equation?
The mission is accomplished (CLICK FOR VIDEO)

It is true that the media of the ‘Israeli’ Enemy and their analysts have expressed astonishment on the film that the Hezbollah media have published recently. The film featured specific goals inside the ‘Israeli’ entity along with a voice commentary belonging to the Hezbollah’s secretary general.  The commentary carried clear messages to the enemy which said that “the mission is accomplished” and that Hezbollah now holds precise missiles that are capable of accurately targeting most of the enemy’s strategic, dangerous and sensitive locations. However, practically, the enemy wasn’t surprised by the message as it was in fact waiting and expecting it. Also, it has put the manner of dealing with Hezbollah as its first priority and within the goals of facing it.

Of course, the enemy’s leadership knew very well that all that Hezbollah has reached concerning its qualified missile capabilities was due to its hard work. Hezbollah has been working and planning hardly and effectively. ‘Israel’ has tried hard to prevent it whether be it in politics, sanctions, diplomacy, and air and missile strikes. However, it seems to have failed in all that. Saying that, how then did Hezbollah build its new equation and what is it based on?

What is the equation based upon?

In practice, Hezbollah’s new equation which goes under the title “mission accomplished” is based upon the possession of specific missiles that are capable of aiming at any target that Hezbollah chooses and at any time it wants. In other words, all of this is present despite the ‘Israeli’ defensive measures. It has become an inevitable destiny.

The enemy has expressed the sensitive and dangerous aspects of the topic from the technical and military points of view through a study conducted by the strategic Begin-Sadat Center. Many foreign and regional media outlets have pointed at this study which was done by “Uzi Rubin” who previously headed the HITZ anti-missile defense project in the Ministry of ‘Security’. Rubin pointed out that “Israel” has put remarkable efforts to thwart the precision project Hezbollah is working on. If it masters it, Hezbollah will then own its special air force, along with an aerial offensive superiority excluding aircraft. This means that the precise missiles will be able to fully and successfully operate and target any location just like any developed bomber.

The credibility of the study that the aforementioned center has published is based on its comparison between Iran’s targeting of Ain al-Assad base in response to the martyrdom of Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, and the dysfunctioning of American capabilities [both missile defense and electronic defense] against the missiles precision and the inevitability of reaching their targets.

The aforementioned center goes on to declare that in practice, the equation of the precise missiles will achieve its purpose in the future. This will be demonstrated in any future war when Hezbollah tries to carry out its own “Operation Focus”. This will be applied using precise missile salvos that will paralyze ‘Israeli’ air bases as soon as the battle begins.  It warned also that the active “Israeli” ‘defense’ comprising the “Iron Dome”, “David’s Sling”, or a very powerful Laser in the future does not guarantee an airtight aerial dam.

And according to the center, “Operation Focus” means  the pre-emptive air strike that ‘Israel’ used to start “the six day war” (1967) on the airports and the Arab air forces. The result was an outstanding air success launching absolute aerial superiority for the ‘Israeli’ air forces and a free support force for the ground forces during the war.

How did Hezbollah build this equation?

Hezbollah built the precise missile equation through a long path of training, planning, learning, and work that is secretive, dangerous and sensitive. This path has resulted in many martyrs and losses in equipment, vehicles and other logistic means and capabilities.  This construction process can be divided into two main phases which are: 

The first phase includes receiving or [manufacturing], transferring and hiding the missiles. This phase was among the most dangerous. It used to take place during the Syrian war which came in parallel with the defensive and offensive military operations that support and back the Arab Syrian army. The sensitive part of this stage was Hezbollah’s commitment not to respond to “Israel” that was trying to target the missiles transfer or the stored ones pending their transfer. This has always been the case as it was in constant search for a reaction to those targetings. Its manner wasn’t to find a pretext for starting a war because in fact it didn’t want one and kept far away from it. On the contrary, it sought and planned to use Hezbollah’s response as an excuse which it would take to the international forums. It also sought to rely on this response to extract decisions from the Security Council which permits the international community to carry out military action under chapter VII of disarming Hezbollah.

So, during the stage of possessing the missiles, Hezbollah was able to maintain its stubborn strategy in patience. Only by confronting this was it able to prove and impose a rule of engagement related to balanced and local responses to any targeting, martyrdom or injury of any of its members in Syria or Lebanon. Outside these areas, Hezbollah abided by the rule of not responding.

The last stage included the appliance of a program that concerns the arrival of a certain amount (its percentage is not clear) of missiles that it possessed to make it precise. This process relied on two directions. The first one has to do with confidentiality at work, in planning and during study and practice. The second one is more practical and is based on acquiring technical and scientific capabilities (acquired after an extended period of time) which it acquired through training, learning, or a number of engineers and technicians. Moreover, the rule of (making the missiles precise) is based on developing and modernizing the dual guidance system. The first one which is organically found on the missile and has to respond and deal with the second. This second one which is the external orientation system is found in the hands of the team which determines the targets and the orientation of the missiles and fixes it on the right path. It also bypasses the enemy’s defense means from counter missiles or from jamming and wasting devices.

After proving that Hezbollah has precise missiles and referring to the credibility of the words of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah “mission accomplished” what will “Israel’s” next strategy for confrontation be in the days to come?

Maybe the coming days will give us the sensitive answer we are pondering upon.

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3000 Rockets Would Be Fired at ‘Israel’ during Every War Day: Former IOF Ombudsman

Source

 June 22, 2020

manar-04902480015792739453

The former IOF ombudsman, Yitzhak Brick, reiterated that the Zionist infantry units are not ready for any war, especially in case of fighting on several fronts simultaneously, adding that this would endanger the security of the entity.

In a report, Brick pointed out that his estimations and conclusions are reached in the Zionist security and military comptroller.

The veteran officer added that more than 250 thousand missiles are besieging ‘Israel’, noting that around 3000 rockets would be fired at the entity per war day.

“The rockets are precision-guided and hold heavy heads and will claim thousands of Israelis and cause a massive destruction.”

Brick considered that the economic crisis exacerbated by the coronavirus outbreak would impede the home front’s preparations to face any upcoming war.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

What does the Empire’s agony mean for the “Jewish state of Israel”?

Source

THE SAKER • MAY 13, 2020 • 2,100 WORDS

Former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and the F-35I

First, let’s begin with a few (apparently unrelated) recent news items:

These apparently unrelated news items all have one thing in common: the illustrate how weak and ineffective the US armed forces have become over the past couple of decades. And while, for the sake of brevity, I chose just three examples, the truth is that there are hundreds of similar stories all over the Internet, all pointing to the same reality: most of the US military is in a terminal state of disrepair.

Let’s look at the various services one by one:

  • The USN‘s entire surface fleet is now compromised due to its carrier-centric structure. The USN also lacks modern cruise missiles. Entire classes of surface ships are now either outdated (frigates) or have major design failures (LCS).
  • The USAF flies mostly Cold War jets, often modernized, but all in all, it is an outdated fleet, especially when compared to Russian or Chinese 4th++ and 5th generation aircraft. In fact, the absolute disaster of the F-35 program means that for the first time in its history the US aircraft will be qualitatively outgunned by its likely adversaries. Even US AWACS and other reconnaissance aircraft are now threatened by Russian and Chinese very long range anti-air missiles (both ground and air launched).
  • As for the US Army and Marine Corps, the embarrassing disasters in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere prove that the US ground forces are basically only able to protect themselves, and even that not very well.
  • Then there are the recently created Space Forces which exist only on paper and the US Coast Guard which is basically irrelevant in a major war.

Finally, there is the US Special Operations Command, which is not one of the service branches but only a “functional” and “unified combatant” command, but which is often thought of as a separate branch of the armed forces. These forces always look great on propaganda rolls, but the truth is that these putatively “best in the word” (what else?!) forces have yet to achieve even their first real, meaningful, operational success anywhere (at least to balance out their long history of abject failures, from Desert One, to Grenada, to Afghanistan, to Libya, etc.). And minor firefights against a much inferior adversary do not qualify.

Now let me ask the crucial question: what does that mean for Israel?

Well, first, it means that the “poor” Israelis now have to fly with the F-35 as their flagship fighter. In most cases, I would trust the Israelis to modify/upgrade their F-35’s to get rid of at least the worst “features”, but in the case of the F-35 this is not even theoretically possible due to profound design flaws (for those in need of an “official” refresher on the catastrophic reality of the F-35 program, please read this official US government report which includes 276 “critical” deficiencies). Sooner rather than later, the Israeli F-35s will meet the export version of the Su-35, the much cheaper but high-performing Mig-29M/MiG-35 or even a Russian Su-57 and then they will be hopelessly outgunned (even if the outcome of any air-to-air combat cannot be reduced to comparing aircraft, you need a full and much more complex picture to model possible outcomes). Currently, the Su-35 has only been exported to China, but future potential operators could include Egypt, Algeria and Turkey. As for the MiG-29M/MiG-35, countries such as Egypt and Syria have expressed interest.

Speaking of Syria, so far we have seen several cases of Israeli aircraft intercepted and forced to withdraw by Russian Su-35Ss, and not a single case of the opposite. There appears to be at least one case, though not confirmed officially (yet?) of a Russian Su-35S chasing away an USAF F-22 (once the Su-35 and the F-22 are in close enough proximity, the latter has very few hopes of survival).

Can you guess what else the Israelis are going to eventually meet in the skies over the Middle-East? Possibly an export variant of the MiG-31 or even Russian MiG-31BMs (with their 400km R-37 air-to-air missiles). In fact, the range, speed, radar and weapons of this aircraft would make it possible for Russia to maintain combat air patrols over, say, Syria while operating from southern Russia.

I dwell on these aircraft because in the past, and just like the US, the Israelis have always relied on the following combination of factors to prevail:

  • A surprise attack (more or less justified by a false flag or by preemption)
  • The destruction of enemy aircraft when they are still on the ground
  • Air superiority to protect their rotary-wing aircraft and advancing armor

True, the Israelis still have a large force of modified F-16/15/18 (14 squadrons, over 300 aircraft), but just like their US counterparts, they are rapidly becoming dated. In sharp contrast to the dated Israeli Air Force, Israeli neighbors are all acquiring more and more advanced air defense systems along with EW and battle management systems. In other words, this is a very bad time for Israel to rely on F-35s for the foreseeable future.

Right now, the Israelis are regularly bombing Syria, but with very little result other than the mantric, and no doubt therapeutic, proclamations of Jewish superiority over the Arabs. And, predictably, the Ziomedia watching folks in Israel and the West are very impressed. The Syrians, the Iranians and Hezbollah, not so much…

Just like the US MIC put all its eggs into the F-35 basket, so did the Israelis put all their national security eggs into the eternal willingness and capability of Uncle Shmuel to come and rescue them with money, weapons or even soldiers.

The willingness is still here. But the capability is quickly disappearing!

Furthermore, there are two more countries which are entering a period of severe instability which will also affect the security of Israel: Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

In the case of Turkey, the relationship between the US and Turkey is about as low as it ever has been, and there is a very real possibility that, with US sanctions and threats, the Turks might decide to give up on the F-35 and turn to a Russian aircraft, most likely an export version of the Su-35. While that would be (politically) bad news for the US MIC, it would be absolutely terrible news for the Israelis whose relationship with Turkey is generally rather bad. So far, Turkey is still an obedient member of NATO, with all that entails, but the weaker the AngloZionist Empire becomes, the bigger the chances of some kind of political clash between the US and NATO on one hand, and Turkey on the other.

As for the Saudis, they have already been actively courting Moscow because they have realized that Russia has basically replaced the US as the number one regional power. The total failure of the US to provide meaningful assistance to the Saudis in Yemen and the inability of the US air defenses to protect the Saudi oilfield from Houthi missile strikes has convinced the Saudis that from now on, they need to talk to the Russians directly and often.

source: IISS Military Balance 2020

source: IISS Military Balance 2020

True, the US still does have the appearance of real power in the Middle East. Just take a look at this page from the latest IISS Military Balance. There are still a lot of CENTCOM equipment and personnel in the region. But try to look beyond these fancy graphics and ask yourself: what are these forces doing? what are they actually achieving?

I would submit that most of what they do is to try to impress the locals, make money (by all sorts of military contracts) and, last but not least, they try to protect themselves. And yes, the US’s “footprint” in the Middle-East is still big, but that is also what makes US forces so vulnerable to attacks. The Iranians, for example, have made it clear that they see all these facilities and forces as “targets” which, following the high-precision Iranian missile attacks following the murder of General Suleimani, means that Iran now has the means to inflict major damage on any regional force crazy enough to mess with Iran.

Of course, every time somebody writes that the US or Israel are not invincible, there is always at least one person saying something like “yeah, maybe, but they got nukes and they will use them if they are threatened”. To this my reply is different for the case of US and for the case of Israel.

In the case of the USA, while any first use of nukes will result in a political suicide for the Empire, no US adversary in the Middle-East has the capability to retaliate in kind against the USA.

In the case of Israel, however, things are even much more serious.

First, we need to remember that for obvious geographical reasons, the Israelis cannot use nukes on attacking forces, at least not forces anywhere near the Israeli border. Still, if seriously threatened, the Israelis could claim that another “Holocaust” is about to happen and that the “defense of Jewish blood” leaves them no option but to use nukes on, say, Iranian or Syrian targets. I submit that the worse the damage inflicted by any such Israeli nuclear strikes, the stronger the resolve of the Arabs and/or Iranians will be. That is the problem with deterrence: once it has failed, it has totally failed and there is usually no “plan B”.

Does that mean that a major attack on Israel is inevitable?

No, not at all. For one thing, both the US and Israel can still inflict immense damage against any country, or coalition of countries, which would threaten them (and they don’t need to resort to nukes to achieve this). The fact that neither the US nor Israel can achieve anything resembling a “victory” in no way implies that attacking the US or Israel is easy or safe. Both countries have plenty of conventional military power left to extract a huge price from any attacker.

Secondly, it is precisely because the US and Israel have a lot of military power left that their adversaries will favor a gradual and slow weakening of the AngloZionists over an open confrontation. For example, while it is true that the US did not have the stomach to attack Iran following the Iranian retaliatory missile strike, it is also true that the Iranians carefully “tuned” their response so as not to force the US to strike back. The truth is that right now neither country wants an open war.

The same can be said of Syria and Hezbollah who have been very careful not to do anything which would force the Israelis (or the US) to escalate from the current symbolic/pin-prick attacks to real, meaningful, air and missile strikes.

Right now the US can still print enough dollars to maintain Israel afloat, but we already know that while throwing cheap money at a problem is often very tempting, this does not constitute a sustainable strategy, especially when the actual military capabilities of both the US and Israelis are rapidly degrading. Right now, nobody knows how much longer the last openly racist regime on the planet will last, but it is exceedingly unlikely that the Zionist entity will be able to survive without the Empire to prop it up. In other words, sooner rather than later, the “Jewish state of Israel” will have no better chances of survival than, say, the “Independent State of Kosovo” or, for that matter, the “Independent Ukraine”: they are all the ugly metastases of the Empire which by themselves are simply not viable.

IRGC Was Ready To Hit 400 Targets If US Responded Airstrike on Ain Al-Assad – Aerospace Commader

IRGC Was Ready To Hit 400 Targets If US Responded Airstrike on Ain Al-Assad – Aerospace Commader

By Staff, Agencies

Referring to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps [IRGC’s] airstrikes on the US occupation airbase of Ain al-Assad in western Iraq, IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said, “If the US responded to our attack on Ain al-Assad, we would be ready to attack 400 American targets.”

Referring to the reactions of US officials to the launch of Iran’s first military satellite into space, Hajizadeh said, “By assassinating Lt. Gen. Soleimani, they wanted to show that they killed a symbol of Resistance, and they were sure that Iran would not respond to their attack.”

“But then they felt somewhat threatened, so they announced that Washington would target 52 cites, including cultural ones, in case Iran targeted US forces,” he added, saying, “But we responded to them by an attack on Ain al-Assad base in Iraq.”

“The day we attacked on Ain al-Assad, we thought the US forces would respond after 20 minutes, so we were ready to attack 400 American targets,” Hajizadeh noted.

“Our plan was to attack 400 US targets if they responded,” he added.

Referring to the successful launch of the first military satellite by IRGC, Hajizadeh also said, “Developed countries have suffered many defeats along the way, but we succeeded in the first step.”

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has developed these capabilities in recent years and with the help of Almighty God we will take the next steps quickly,” he said emphasizing solid-fuel launchers are equipped with the latest technology in the world.

“Today, gaining access to space and using it is not a choice. It is an inevitable necessity and we must find our place in space,” he added.

“We have great achievements in the field of missiles and defense in the world, and today we have successfully entered the space arena. I have to say that the obstacles have been removed from our path and from now on we will move faster,” the IRGC commander underscored.

He also noted that such successes are reminiscent of relentless efforts and brilliant achievements have taken by martyrs such as Hassan Tehran Moghadam and other martyrs.

The IRGC elite force has successfully launched the Noor-1 Satellite by the domestically-built launcher Qassed [messenger] on Wednesday morning and placed it into the orbit at an altitude of 425km. The launch of Noor-1 which is the Islamic Republic’s first military satellite was carried out on the 41st anniversary of the foundation of the IRGC.

Related Articles

HOW PRECISE IRANIAN MISSILES? ANALYSIS OF MISSILE STRIKES ON U.S. MILITARY BASE IN IRAQ

South Front

This video is based on the analysis of Haider Geoanalyst originally appeared on TheSaker.is

Several sources in the past weeks have analyzed the Iranian missile strikes on US forces at the Ayn Al Asad Airbase which took place more than two weeks ago on the 8th of January 2020 as a retaliation for the US assassination of the Iranian general Qassem Sulaimani.

In this analysis, the post-strike satellite imagery is assessed to give us some insights on what happened at the Ayn Al Asad Airbase and to estimate the accuracy of the Iranian missiles.

It is clear, even prior to conducting any analysis, that the Iranian missiles targeted individual structures with a high rate of accuracy. This analysis attempts to estimate the accuracy in terms of how far the missiles landed from their targets. Since the Iranians did not make public the targets they wanted to hit or destroy, it is assumed that the individual missiles were targeting the actual structures they destroyed or the nearest structures to their impact locations.

A term often used in precision guided munitions (artillery shells, smart-bombs, missiles, etc.) is the circular error probability (CEP). This value is not derived from actual warfare statistics but from weapons testing or claims from the weapons manufacturer. Instead of using the CEP, we will attempt to derive our own statistics from the small sample size of missile strikes.

Introduction to Ayn Al Asad Airbase

The US occupation forces between 2003 and 2005 changed the name of the airbase from its original 1980s name of Qadisiyah Airbase to the name of Ayn Al Asad, which in Arabic literally either means “Eye of the Lion” or in this case “Lion spring” due to the hydrological spring which is now located within the perimeter of the airbase. This spring feeds the Wadi al Asadi stream valley located in the northern part of the air base and flows eastwards into the Euphrates River as one of its tributaries. The main part of the base originally had a perimeter length of 21 km, not including other secondary or auxiliary bases located in the surrounding areas. The perimeter was expanded by the Americans to 34 km (Figure 1), giving the base a total area size of approximately 63 km2 and making it the largest military base in Iraq by area size. For comparison, this is almost twice the size of the New York City metropolitan area.

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

The base consists of two major runways (a third runway is unpaved), several taxiways, a variety of different facilities and buildings for personnel, equipment, communications, including sports and leisure centers with theaters and swimming pools. The base further has soft and hardened aircraft shelters (hangars). The trapezoidal shaped hardened aircraft hangers were built by Yugoslavian companies across many bases in Iraq in the 80s and are nicknamed “Yugos” by the Iraqis. The two hardened runways have a length of approximately 3,990 m. This is almost 1 km shorter than Iraq’s longest aircraft runway of 4,800 m located at Erbil airport, which is also one of the longest in the world. For further historical and general information on the Ayn Al Asad Airbase, see the following websites here ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Asad_Airbase ), here ( https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/al-asad.htm ) and here ( https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/al-asad-airbase-iraq/ ).

Reports indicate that around 15 to 16 missiles were fired from multiple locations inside Iran, with at least 10 missiles fired from bases in the Kermanshah area. If this is indeed the case and assuming a straight line flight path, the missiles could have traveled a distance of approximately 425 km from Kermanshah until reaching the Ayn Al Asad Airbase (Figure 2).

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Airbase missile strike overview

In recent days, analysts have identified a total of nine separate missile impact strikes within the Ayn Al Assad Airbase perimeter. This does not exclude the possibility of other missile impact sites within the base’s perimeter which have not been identified or published online. Seven strikes (number 1 to 7) are found at the facilities located just above the northern taxiway and runway, which according to the imagery, houses a variety of drones and aircraft, including V-22 Ospreys, MQ-1 Predator drones, UH-60 Black Hawks and even (K)C-130 Hercules aircraft for transport and refueling. Another missile impact (number 8) is located on the taxiway between the two paved runways and impact number 9 is found on a taxiway in the southeastern complex of hardened aircraft hangars.

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 1 and 2

Strikes number 1 and 2 are approximately 110 m apart. Crater impact nr. 1 is 28 m away from the destroyed soft non reinforced target (possibly a tent structure). Nr. 1 has a small circular blast followed by a secondary semi-circle pattern. The secondary pattern towards the west also gives away the eastern incoming missile direction. Impact nr. 1 is peculiar since it is not a direct hit, but landed 28 m next to the nearest structure. The question is if the Iranians intentionally targeted this point or is it an accuracy issue (off by 28 m) ?

Strike nr. 2 has a similar sized crater and blast pattern as nr. 1 (approx. 27 to 28 m). So it is highly possible that both strikes were conducted using the same missile, with strike nr. 2 having a more obvious blast circle due to it landing exactly in the middle of a series of built soft structures (possible tents). From the measurements we can conclude that strike nr. 2 is more or less dead center on the 5 soft like tent structures and there is no substantial accuracy error.

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 3

Site nr. 3 contains two soft structures (possible tents). The missile’s crater and circular blast pattern is located almost in the center of the left building. If this building was deliberately targeted, the error is no more than 3 m. For comparison, this is the average accuracy of a handheld GNSS (GPS) device or a current smartphone, which is very impressive for a warhead landing at more than 2000 km/h (terminal velocity).

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 4 and 5

Sites 4 and 5 are two building (soft structures) next to one-another each hit with what seems to be similar type of missiles with primary blast radius of 8 to 9 m and secondary circles of around 20 to 22 m. If the center of the buildings were targeted, accuracy errors are 6 and 14 m for site 4 and 5, respectively. Again, we do not know if the Iranians deliberately targeted a certain part of the structures.

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 6

Strike 6 is located on the left side of a long metal roof soft structure, similar to a steel open warehouse. The left half of the building shows a primary blast circle of approximately 17 m in radius, with an overall damage radius of approximately 25 m. If we assume that the center of the building was the actual target, then we find an error of 51 m. Again, the question is whether the left side of this building was deliberately struck instead of the central part. It’s possible to assume that the Iranians intentionally targeted the western side of the building, having prior knowledge the blast radius of their missiles and the importance of the western side of the building.

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 7

Strike number 7 is the most easterly impact site and is found near the end of the northern runway. The impact is located almost exactly in the middle of four soft aircraft shelters. The post-strike image (taken a few hours after the event) shows V-22 Ospreys and MQ-1 predator drones parked just south of the shelters. The first circular blast pattern has a 15 m radius. The incoming direction of the missile caused the complete destruction of the adjacent shelter just left of the impact point, while the shelter to the right was lightly damaged. If we assume the Iranians were targeting the middle point of the second shelter (taken from left to right) than the accuracy error would be about 18 m. However, it is highly likely that the four soft shelters were targeted as a single unit. If that is the case, then the missile was only 7 m off (accuracy error) from the middle point.

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 8

If we assume that the Iranians are not randomly lobbing missiles inside the airbase with CEP errors of 100 to 500 m as some of the so called “think tank” experts presume (or have previously presumed in recent years), then we can assume that site nr. 8 was targeting the taxiway located between the two paved runways as previously shown in Figure 3. In the images below we can see an impact crater hitting the side of the taxiway. The impact is 23 m from the center of the taxiway pavement and we use this distance as a measure of accuracy. A clear circular blast pattern is visible and a directional blast cone indicates the incoming missile direction.

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Site number 9

Strike nr. 9 is the second strike on a taxiway and is the most southern impact site situated in a hardened hangar complex. The impact crater is located almost exactly on one of the corner points of a paved T-junction. If the Iranians purposely targeted this exact point, then the accuracy error could possibly be no more than 2 meters. However, if the target was the actual center of the T-junction, then the error is approximately 11 m. Like in site nr. 8, we see a circular blast with a cone like fan shaped pattern giving the incoming missile direction.

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Assessment and conclusions

There are different ways to assess the accuracy of these strikes based on the fact that we do not have the exact coordinates the Iranians wanted  to target. It is not very realistic to assume that the Iranians were perfectly able to target the exact coordinates they intended to hit with perfect accuracy. There is however uncertainty in whether the Iranians intentionally missed some of their targets. The abovementioned observations clearly show a pattern of very accurate strikes on individually targeted buildings/structures. There are two most likely scenarios:

  1. The Iranians intentionally targeted and destroyed some targets. Accuracy errors occurred causing some missiles to miss the exact center point of their targets, with other targets being completely missed.
  2. The Iranians intentionally destroyed some targets and intentionally missed some others.

The table shows the estimated range in accuracy for each of the 9 strike locations based on our observations and interpretation. The green numbers are the most likely errors in meters, while red numbers indicating the less likely errors based on our assumptions of what the Iranians intended to target. An average missile target accuracy of 11 m is based on what are the most likely intended targets (or in other words the most likely scenario). The statistical spread of this small sample size (of only 9 strikes) is 8.5 m. So the lower and upper limits of the accuracy, based on the standard deviation, is estimated to range between 2.5 and 19.5 m. The median value, which is somewhat comparable to the CEP, is 7 m. This means that half of the strikes landed within 7 m. Finally, the average blast (damage) circle is estimated at 21 m.

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Let’s visualize these numbers and assume that these numbers can be used in circles. The figure shows a MQ-1 predator drone theoretically being targeted. The yellow line indicates the 11 m mean accuracy value. This is where missiles will land on average. The red line gives the 7 m median value where 50 % of the strikes are found inside this circle. The subsequent figure also includes examples of blast circle (average radius of 21 m) locations in respect to the target.

How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq
How Precise Iranian Missiles? Analysis Of Missile Strikes On U.S. Military Base In Iraq

Assuming the estimation of the intended targets and measurements are realistic, an Iranian missile accuracy ranging on average between 2.5 and 19.5 m is very impressive to say the least and indicates the use of advanced terminal guidance technology (guiding a missile in its terminal phase). Reports have suggested that the Fateh-313 tactical short range ballistic missile (SRBM) was used in the Ayn Al Asad Airbase attack, with other reports suggesting that the Qiam 1 was also used in the attack, including on Erbil Airport. The Fateh-313 is an upgraded Fateh-110, with an increased missile range up to 500 km. Terminal guidance technologies are most likely to be combined, including inertial guidance systems (INS), GNSS systems and possibly electro-optical guidance.

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