At the end of Israel-Palestine conflict: The acquisition of Hamas

June 8, 2021 – 14:13

By Rakib Al Hasan 

After series of devastating Israeli airstrikes for more than 10 days, a ceasefire was declared by both Hamas and the Israeli regime. The fighting cost more than 248 Palestinian lives. It also led to massive destruction of properties in the Gaza strip.

Now with the end of the conflict, both sides are measuring their costs and successes. Both sides are claiming major victory. According to the Israeli leadership, the offensives have achieved their goals and they can measure these as successes. On the other hand, Hamas is also claiming that it has successfully defended the Palestinian people.

Hamas is an armed resistance group that Western powers consider it as a “terrorist” organization. On the other hand, Israel is a regime with massive military strength. Thus, the objectives of a conflict between such two actors depend mainly on military and political grounds.

If we talk about the Israeli side, the government and military claimed that Hamas can be dealt with in two ways. One, by completely conquering it, and two, by destroying its combat capability. So, have Israel achieved these two goals so far?

First of all, militarily Israel has destroyed many civil targets. In the latest fight against Hamas, they killed at least 63 children, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.  Although Israel could intercept some of 340 rockets launched from Gaza, Israel’s Iron Dom showed that it is incapable to work in any possible clash. They also destroyed a key research and development center claiming that it was a Hamas base.

In terms of the political achievements from the latest fight, Israel has gained lesser. The fight could have given a lifeline domestically for the Israeli PM Netanyahu but it has cost Israel a lot diplomatically. The international support for the Palestinians has gained new momentum.

If we go to war, there will be casualties. Many people have to give their lives. No war has ever taken place without revenge. So, the main issue is who has won the war and whose objective has been achieved more than the loss in the war. So, the achievements of Hamas in this war can be seen by analyzing a little.

• In this battle, the Iron Dome was seen playing a little. If too many rockets or missiles are fired at once, the Iron Dome cannot properly detect it. About 60% of Hamas’s 4,000-plus rockets have been detected. This weakness of the Iron Dome became known, which would later make Hamas more practical.

• For so long, everyone believed in the exclusive Western narrative. Even the barbaric attacks on Muslims in the name of self-defense did not deter the Western world. CNN, New York Times, Guardian, Reuters, etc. also blindly believed such a narrative. But international media outlets such as Al Jazeera, Middle East Eye, TRT, Anadolu have been able to unmask the West against this propaganda. As a result, although the name of Israel was not mentioned in the beginning, now almost all the Western media is mentioning the name of Israel.

After a loss in the media war, Israel demolished the Al Jazeera building in Gaza. Had it not been for the AP in the same building, they might not have hesitated to kill the Al Jazeera team. 

• Palestine has received unprecedented support in this war. Many figures and leaders, including the Irish MP, the Austrian MP, Mark Ruffalo, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, Ayatollah Khamenei and Erdogan were in favor of Palestine. There have been small and large rallies in almost all countries, including London, the United States, Paris, Turkey, and Qatar. A fund has been set up in distant Bangladesh at the initiative of the Palestinian embassy. In the outside world, it will play a huge role in increasing the acceptance of Palestine and Hamas as well as motivating the fighters.

• The project that the West has undertaken to make Hamas a terrorist group has come to naught. They have also shown through their protests the mischievous attempts to portray Hamas as a terrorist group and to show the world who the real terrorists are. 

• It has become clear to the Muslim world, including Hamas, who are the friends and who are the enemies of the Muslims. Who incites the killing of innocent children by uttering the words of humanity. Israel lacks moral right to talk about this issue, especially when it violates international human rights law. 

• Israel has been portrayed in recent times as invincible or irresistible, but in practice they are not. The death of an Israeli citizen is a very sensitive issue in Israel. The politicians of that country do not want to take that risk. So, they are also a bit timid. This idea has now been established with Hamas. Hamas now believes that only a good range of missiles can stop Israel.

• The Muslim world is growing angry and uneasy over, day after day, of bombings and civilian casualties in Gaza. An emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation called OIC was held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Israeli security analysts believe that the so-called “Abraham Accord” peace agreement, following the Israeli attack on the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and the subsequent deaths in Gaza, will be under more pressure.

• Iran has helped Hamas with technology. Several other Muslim countries are helping with the intelligence team. Training in Syria. As a result, a strong bond will be formed between these countries because of Palestine. Together, they can do everything possible to help rescue Gaza, as Turkey has done to Azerbaijan.

• From now on, Muslim children may want to be as brave as Palestinian children in the way the protests of Palestinian children in Gaza have sparked worldwide discussion. Maybe this Palestinian issue can reunite Muslims around the world.

• The most important event in this conflict is that for the first time Hamas has been able to provoke the Arab population inside Israel. This is a big strategic achievement for Hamas and a big headache for Israel. Hamas has now successfully hijacked the protests that erupted between Palestinians and Israeli police in Jerusalem in the beginning of Ramadan. Mohammad Deif, Hamas military wing leader, issued a threat against Israel over protests. Many Palestinians even in Jerusalem began chanting slogans and praised Hamas. 
Hamas decision to fire rockets at Jerusalem has enabled it to present itself as a very credible Resistance Group. They present themselves as those people who would do anything to support the Palestinians in Jerusalem. They say they are protecting Al-Aqsa Mosque compound from being Judaized. 

• Hamas has been successful to draw attention to President Mahmoud Abbas and his incompetence. Hamas showed him as a weak leader. Now Hamas has achieved the center stage in negotiations with Egyptian, Qatari and United Nations mediators. It is said that Hamas lost the power to show its influence through the ballot box after the elections were postponed by Mahmoud Abbas. They were set to take place on May 22 and July 31, 2021. Now through these current events Hamas has shown that it is the leading player in Palestinian arena and is popular among the population. 

It is expected that when the next elections would take place Hamas would enter the fray with an upper hand. It is also expected that Jerusalem would be the main theme of Hamas in contesting the next elections. It would be acting as a defender of Al-Aqsa Mosque and a liberator of Jerusalem.

RELATED NEWS

Sheikh Qassem to Al-Ahed: Berri Taking Steps to Form Government; the Syrian Elections Are a Success Story

28/05/2021

Source

Sheikh Qassem to Al-Ahed: Berri Taking Steps to Form Government; the Syrian Elections Are a Success Story

By Mayssaa Moukaddem

Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is taking steps to form a new government. That’s according to Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General, His Eminence Sheikh Naim Qassem, who said that “hopes for solution” are resting on these steps.

“We need the results to appear directly this week,” Sheikh Qassem said in an exclusive interview with the Al-Ahed News.

“The country carrying on without a government means the continuation of economic and social chaos and a continuous deterioration,” he added. “Forming the government is the natural, necessary, and exclusive approach to the beginning of the solution in Lebanon.”

Sheikh Qassem also responded to the Governor of the Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salameh, in relation to the Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association. Hezbollah’s  deputy chief explained that “Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association is a charitable social institution that does not deal with banking matters and is not part of the banking system in Lebanon. Therefore, any observation that may be made by any party that considers itself to have the authority can follow it through the normal, legal channels and will find that this institution is a charitable institution, to which the accusation claimed by some does not apply.”

Regarding the elections in Syria, Sheikh Qassem asserted that “the massive turnout is proof of Syria’s recovery, and that the regime has a well-established position. This scene completely contradicts all previous bets on displaced Syrians serving as a tool to vote for someone other than President Assad, and having the president removed in a democratic and constitutional manner.”

Regarding the restoration of the relationship between Hamas and Syria and the role of Hezbollah in this regard, Sheikh Qassem noted that “the relationship was a subject of follow-up in recent months.”

“There has also been progress towards the possibility of restoring relations between them. But the honorable battle of Al-Quds Sword accelerated these steps. God willing, we will soon see a normal return of relations and repair the rifts.”

Sheikh Qassem affirmed that “the work of the resistance against ‘Israel’ does not belong to a sect, but rather belongs to the honorable Islamic, patriotic, national, and humanitarian resistance.”

“Anyone who is trying to drive a wedge between the resistance movements is acting in an absurd manner.”

Below is the full text of the interview:

1- First, all the supporters of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah are asking about the health of His Eminence, especially after his recent speech. Did you have contact with him after the speech? How can you reassure his supporters?

The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, is fine, praise be to God Almighty. He was diagnosed with a mild condition in recent days that required him to rest for two to three days. But since his supporters have been waiting for his speech on May 25, failure to appear would have raised unnecessary questions. It was better for him to make an appearance, despite not fully recovering, to be on the side of his supporters who were waiting for his speech at this important and sensitive stage. And the Secretary-General is fine, God willing.

2- The head of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, Yahya al-Sinwar, stated that “the rockets and planes deployed during the battle were sent in complete coordination between the resistance in Lebanon and Gaza.” What do you have to add regarding details of coordination between the resistance in Lebanon and Gaza?

It has become known that the level of cooperation between the Islamic Republic, Hezbollah, and the resistance in Palestine is high at the level of preparation, capabilities, training, and manufacturing. Therefore, any other details related to the coordination mechanisms remain a security matter, and we cannot disclose their details. However, it is clear that the battle that took place unfolded with close follow-up and permanent cooperation, thank God.

3- How did you read yesterday’s press conference where Al-Sinwar challenged the “Israeli” enemy to assassinate him, and then he publicly walked through the streets of Gaza despite the declared “Israeli” threats?

The “Israelis” usually make many threats in order to leave a psychological effect on their enemies, but it seems that they have not yet understood what the resistance and the resistance fighters are. They are confident in the victory of God Almighty and stand in the front row during confrontations alongside the honorable mujahideen. Hence, the public appearance of Al-Sinwar is a clear challenge to the “Israeli” enemy that their threats could not affect the resistance and its leadership.

4- To what extent can the equation referred to by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, “Al-Quds versus a regional war,” be enforceable in the foreseeable future?

It is not possible to define anticipated times for wars that “Israel” might initiate or for developments that could lead to a comprehensive regional war. This matter has to do with field data that are not currently available, and the conditions are not favorable to them, but it must remain clear that we, as Hezbollah, are in a state of constant readiness for any calculated or unpredictable development.

5- Did the Al-Quds Sword battle contribute to repairing rifts that appeared between some Palestinian resistance movements and Syria? Does Hezbollah have a role in this?

The relationship between the Hamas movement and Syria has been the subject of follow-up in recent months, and there has also been progress towards the possibility of restoring relations between them. But the honorable battle Al-Quds Sword accelerated these steps. This was highlighted by the announcement of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to receive all the resistance fighters in Damascus, as well as the response of the Hamas leadership about expecting this from Syria, which has always been on the side of the resistance. God willing, we will soon see a normal return of relations and repair the rifts that have risen as a result of developments in Syria in the last stage.

6- What is your response to those who are trying to play on the sectarian chord to divide the resistance factions in the area?

The work of the resistance against “Israel” does not belong to a sect, but rather belongs to the honorable Islamic, patriotic, national, and humanitarian resistance. Therefore, whoever tries to drive a wedge within the relations of the resistance movements is acting in an absurd manner because the level of interaction and integration in the resistance work has been evident at various stages, especially at the last stage, where the level of interaction between the resistance fighters throughout the region is extensive without any sectarian dismissions.

7- After 21 years since the liberation of Lebanon, to what extent can it be said that the resistance is able to deter “Israeli” aggression and attacks?

Talking about Hezbollah’s resistance deterring “Israel” doesn’t need any further verification. “Israel” committed an aggression in 2006 with the expectation that it would crush the resistance in Lebanon, but it failed miserably. For the last 15 years (from 2006 to 2021), “Israel” is still deterred in every sense of the word. This is evidence of the effects that the liberation and the victory in the 2006 aggression left on “Israel”; it does not dare to launch an aggression in any way or form because it is fully aware that the resistance’s response will be very harsh, especially since its capabilities and methods developed extraordinarily in recent years. It is now in a much better position than it was during the liberation or following the 2006 aggression.

8- In the last two years, Lebanon entered an unprecedented phase of economic and monetary deterioration. In your view, does the path of salvation begin from the formation of the government? Do you bet on this matter, especially since there are those who doubt that a government will be born under the current circumstances? Following the disagreement between President Aoun and Hariri, [the government] will not be productive but tensions and mutual obstacles will move to the cabinet table.

There are two options in Lebanon, and there is no third. There is the option of the country carrying on without a government, and this means the continuation of economic and social chaos and a continuous deterioration without reaching any solution. The second option is to form a government so that there is an official body responsible in the country. Even if this government does not achieve everything that the Lebanese people aspire for, at least it introduces the first rescue steps on the path to a solution and begins with efforts to stop the deterioration we are in. Therefore, the formation of the government is the natural, necessary, and exclusive entry point for the beginning of the solution in Lebanon. Then, we must follow up so that the solution is effective. We must also address the gaps that slow the solution down or affect it. There are no other options in Lebanon.

9- After the Secretary-General of Hezbollah confirmed that Speaker Nabih Berri is the only party capable of solving disagreements between President Aoun and Hariri, do you know what he is preparing in this regard?

There are steps that Speaker Berri is now taking, which he hopes will create an opportunity for a solution, and we are helping and cooperating so are other parties. We need the results to appear directly this week.

10- While waiting for the formation of the government, who will the citizens that are looking for fuel, medicine, and basic needs turn to? Does Hezbollah have an alternative plan to protect societal security in Lebanon? Is there anyone who can guarantee that the street will not explode again in light of the continuous deterioration?

Social security is the responsibility of the state and not the responsibility of a particular party. No matter what any party does, it will not be able to achieve social security for the people. It may fill some gaps and address some problems, but there must be a responsible government that the Parliament will hold accountable and follow up with in order to take us to steps for social security and resolve chaos. Any betting outside the framework of forming a government is futile and a waste of time and unrealizable hopes.

11- Does Hezbollah have a project to benefit in a way from the continuous Iranian offers to Lebanon to help in several areas, including electricity, in case Lebanese officials continue to refuse or escape from it?

It is better to wait for the formation of the government, and we will try to help the state cooperate with Iranian, Russian, Chinese, and Western offers, which can speed up dealing with the electricity problem or other problems.

12- In an interview with Al-Hadath channel a few days ago, the Governor of Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salameh, said, “We learned from Washington about Al-Qard Al-Hasan’s connections, and we will investigate this, and the activity of this institution harms the banking system.” What is your response?

Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association is a charitable social institution that does not deal with banking matters and is not part of the banking system in Lebanon. Therefore, any observation that may be made by any party that considers itself to have the authority can follow it through the normal, legal channels and will find that this institution is a charitable institution, to which the accusation claimed by some does not apply.

13- Does Hezbollah support the removal of Riad Salameh from his position?

Any matter related to the governor of the Bank of Lebanon, remaining [in his post] or being ousted, requires a government to make this decision. Discussing this subject is a mere form of entertainment if it is not translated into a discussion within the government, which must take the right position on this issue according to the data presented to it.

14- How is Hezbollah’s relationship with Bkerke today?

The liaison committee between Hezbollah and Bkerke continues its regular and periodic meetings, and there is nothing new in this regard.

15- The Saudi media maintains that Hezbollah is part of the drug trade, and these allegations intensified among Gulf countries preventing Lebanese trucks from passing through their territories. Some Lebanese parties recommended accusing Hezbollah of harming Lebanon’s image and Lebanese production, what is your response?

The link between Hezbollah, drugs, the Gulf states, accusations, and evidence must be dismantled. First, Hezbollah does not trade in drugs and has nothing to do with it, neither from near nor from afar, and it prohibits drug trade and consumption. And the Lebanese security services are fully aware of the extent of Hezbollah’s contribution in providing aid and support when it comes to arresting people or raiding groups in different regions, where we have the ability to help the security services to do so.

As for Western allegations that talk about drug trafficking at the international level, they lack evidence. All the reports they announce say, “This person is close to Hezbollah, “it was leaked to us that Hezbollah may have a relationship,” and “here is an analysis saying that Hezbollah is the one benefiting.” No report dares to accuse Hezbollah directly because it has not been proven to anyone. But they are trying, in a twisted way, to pin it on Hezbollah, and so far, internationally and locally, this matter has not been proven and will not be proven because we are against drugs, drug trade, and anything related to drugs.

Secondly, the drugs seized in pomegranate shipments belongs to one or some drug traffickers, and it has absolutely no connection to Hezbollah. The measures taken by Saudi Arabia, or some Gulf countries are measures related to the shipment of drugs or other shipments. What does this have to do with Hezbollah and the position of the Gulf states with Hezbollah? Linking the matter to Hezbollah is part of the political rivalry and an attempt to tarnish the party’s image. We no longer comment on such accusations because we considered them both frivolous and degrading at the same time and based on unjustified hostility and accusations that do not have the slightest basis. So, if this matter is mentioned repeatedly and Hezbollah did not respond, it is because it has become one of the issues that do not concern us, and the people concerned know very well that we are outside the circle of drugs or the likes.

Does Hezbollah intend to file lawsuits against the media that deliberately insist on placing Hezbollah’s name in this file?

We may need to activate the entire judiciary in Lebanon if we wish to prosecute for every accusation because some throw around accusations a lot without evidence. We do not have the conviction to pursue every matter through the judiciary. We may pursue very specific and very restricted matters if we find that there is a benefit, but this is not our approach.

16- What is your reading of the high turnout in the presidential elections in Syria? And how did you interpret the tension between Lebanese factions over the turnout of the Syrians in Lebanon?

The massive turnout is proof of Syria’s recovery, and that the regime has a well-established position and that people, contrary to what they say about them in the West and some Gulf countries, are supporters of the structure and continuation of the regime. They are opposed to chaos and the fragmentation of Syria. This scene completely contradicts all previous bets on displaced Syrians serving as a tool to vote for someone other than President Assad, and having the president removed in a democratic and constitutional manner.

It became clear to all of them that this bet was unrealistic because even in the centers outside Syria where people have been displaced, the huge turnout was in favor of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. I consider this a success and a victory at the same time for Syria’s continuity and stability in the future. Anyone looking for a solution in Syria must deal with the regime and not with America, “Israel,” and those on their side, including Daesh and others who destroyed Syria.

As for those who tried to attack some voters in Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a statement and made it clear that these people attacked others who have the right to express their opinion. Therefore, this attack is unacceptable and rejected, regardless of their arguments. Unfortunately, some feel that the aggressor has a justification because the voter passed in front of him. This justification is illogical and unreasonable. In any case, they have offended themselves with this attack and highlighted the ugly racist image that no one embraces.

The One State Reality

 BY GILAD ATZMON

one state finally .jpg

by Gilad Atzmon

There is a war in Jerusalem right now, a war that ends the Israeli illusion that the Palestinian cause has somehow faded away or evaporated.

Veteran Israeli General  Amos Yadlin, former commander of the IDF’s  intelligence and a chief Israeli National Security analyst, described the Israeli reality in the most brutal terms in his commentary on Israeli N12:   “The Israeli delusions are over. The Palestinian problem is Back. “

Yadlin believes that Israel’s lack of leadership has led to strategic paralysis, in which Israel and Palestine have practically morphed into ‘one state’ and it has only two options to choose from: either to ‘stop being a Jewish State’ or to be ‘undemocratic’! According to Yadlin, the “Palestinians are engaged in a different discourse today than in the past. After the failure of their three main strategies – terrorism, internationalization of the conflict and reliance on the Arab world, the Palestinians have greatly strengthened the discourse of rights. If they cannot achieve their own state, they seek equal rights as citizens of the Greater State of Israel – with the long-term hope of an Arab majority in one state. In the meantime, they hope to exhaust Israel’s economic benefits and gain points in the campaign for Israel’s delegitimization.”

I wouldn’t use Yadlin’s misguided terminology, as the Palestinians are already the majority of the people between the river and the sea. Yet, I believe that his dissection of the situation is largely accurate. It is also consistent with IDF intelligence’s reading of the Israeli Palestinian conflict since the early 1980s. IDF generals have been saying it for years: for the Palestinians to win, all they need to do is to survive. Mahmoud Abbas, whom many Palestine supporters tend to detest, also came to the same realization a while back. It is not war that will defeat Israel, it is actually peace which Israel fears the most.

As if the news is not bad enough for the Israelis and their future prospects in the region, the last election made it clear that the new Israeli kingmaker is no other than Mansour Abbas, the Leader of the Islamic party Ra’am.  Benjamin Netanyahu was ready to form a government with him just to sustain his primacy, with the hope that this may help him stay out of prison. But an alternative  centrist coalition also can’t be formed without the support of Abbas.

The hardcore right wing within the Israeli Knesset do understand that such political power in the hands of an Islamic party empowers their bitterest enemies. It is destined to bring many more Israeli Arabs to the polls in the next election and if Arabs in Israel enjoy the same political representation as the Jewish majority, they can easily become the biggest political force in Israel. Is Israel ready for an Arab PM, or Muslim minister of defence? I’ll let you ponder over that.

The most peculiar fact in all of that is that Jewish lobbies around the world are actually very successful in dominating different nations’ affairs that are relevant to Israel and Jewish interests. A lot has been written about AIPAC dominating American foreign affairs. A lot was said about the power of the Conservative Friends of Israel (CFI) and the Labour friends of Israel (LFI) in Britain. Yet in the USA Jews amount to less than 2% of the entire population. In the UK, Jews are less than 0.5% of the Brits. In Israel, on the other hand, Jews are 80% of the Israeli society and about 50% of the people who dwell between the Jordan river and the Mediterranean Sea.  One may draw a conclusion that Jews are doing far better for themselves as a marginal exilic identity than being a majority on the land. Zionism, for those who do not know, was born to refute that observation but it failed.    

Denote

«إسرائيل» ترضخ للصواريخ الدقيقة

«إسرائيل» تحرّك «الخطّ الأحمر»: لن نتحمّل أكثر من ألف صاروخ دقيق في لبنان!

قضية اليوم 

يحيى دبوق 

الجمعة 26 شباط 2021

«إسرائيل» تحرّك «الخطّ الأحمر»:  لن نتحمّل أكثر من ألف صاروخ  دقيق في لبنان!

بعد التقليل من أهمية تهديد الصواريخ الدقيقة لدى المقاومة للجمهور الإسرائيلي، لجأ العدو إلى «تجزئة» هذا التهديد، قبل أن يبدأ بخفص سقوفه: في البداية، تحدّث عن وجود عدد ضئيل من الصواريخ، ثم تحدّث عن عشرات الصواريخ، قبل أن يرجّح وجود المئات منها في حوزة المقاومة. آخر ما «كشفه» العدو الذي يرفض تكبيل يديه تجاه أعدائه، هو أنه لن يتحمّل وجود أكثر من 1000 صاروخ دقيق في لبنان! العدّاد، بطبيعة الحال، مرشّح للارتفاع مستقبلاً

هي نتيجة مألوفة ومتوقّعة، وباتت طبيعية جداً، في معادلة بناء القوة العسكرية للمقاومة. تسعى إسرائيل لـ«الحؤول دون»، وتهدّد بأنها «لن تسمح وإلّا»، ومن ثم تتراجع لتتعايش قسراً مع واقع جديد بات يكبّل يديها أكثر في مقاربة الساحة اللبنانية عسكرياً. هذه هي حال إسرائيل مع سلاح حزب الله الدقيق، بل وفائق الدقة، كما يرد أخيراً من تل أبيب.

ما ورد في الإعلام العبري، وعلى لسان جهات رفيعة المستوى، يدفع إلى التهكّم. وفقاً لهذه الجهات: امتلاك حزب الله سلاحاً صاروخياً دقيقاً، وتحديداً ما بين 500 و1000 صاروخ هو سقف أعلى، إن جرى تجاوزه، فيلزم «إسرائيل» بالعمل.
حديث «الجهات الرفيعة المستوى» غير معلوم إن كان تهديداً أم «تعزية ذات». والمفارقة أنه يأتي بعد يومين فقط من حديث آخر لرئيس حكومة العدو بنيامين نتنياهو، أكّد فيه أنه «لن نساوم على تطوير صواريخ عالية الدقة، في سوريا ولبنان».

في السابق، قيل الكثير إسرائيلياً عن الصواريخ الدقيقة. الويل والثبور لحزب الله وللبنان وللبنانيين، إن أبصر «مشروع الدقّة» النور وخرج من مرحلة «التفكير به» إلى مرحلة الإنتاج، وأي خطوة في هذا الاتجاه وفقاً للتهديدات «تُلزم إسرائيل بالعمل».

التهديد كان قاطعاً، وعلى لسان كبار المسؤولين الإسرائيليين، بل كان التهديد في حينه جزءاً لا يتجزأ وحاضراً دائماً لدى أيّ موقف أو تصريح يصدر عن شخصيات أو محافل أو مصادر في «إسرائيل»، تتناول الشأن اللبناني. أيضاً، رسائل التهديد نُقلت إلى لبنان عبر زائريه من شخصيات رسمية وغير رسمية وفدت إلى لبنان، ومنها من جاء خصّيصاً كي ينقل التهديد ويؤكد جديته، بأن «إسرائيل» لن تهتم ولن تقف أمام ما سيجري لاحقاً لأنها قرّرت أن تتحرك لضرب «مشروع الدقة»، إن لم يتوقف.

استمر «مشروع الدقة»، فيما استمرت «إسرائيل» بإيصال تهديداتها علناً أو عبر آخرين. وفي السياق، كانت تعمد بين الحين والآخر إلى طمأنة جمهورها عبر إنكار الواقع باللعب على الكلمات بأن «مشروع الدقة» لدى حزب الله هو «مجرد فكرة» لم تجد تعبيراتها العملية، وبالتالي لا إنتاج لصواريخ دقيقة حتى الآن. السبب كما كانت الأذن الإسرائيلية تسمع، هو إصرار تل أبيب وعملها على الحؤول دونه. وكان هذا الموقف، الموجّه إلى الداخل، خليطاً من الأماني وإنكار الواقع وقلة الحيلة وارتفاعاً غير معقول وغير محتمل لمقاربة متطرّفة، قد تقدم عليها «إسرائيل» في مواجهة «الدقة».

في السياقات، لجأت «إسرائيل»، إضافة إلى التهديدات، إلى العمل على إدخال الآخرين في المعركة ضد «الدقة». والجهة التي كان يُعول عليها كثيراً، هي الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، التي سارعت بطبيعة الحال إلى تبني مقاربة «إسرائيل» والاصطفاف خلفها وإلى جانبها، في المعركة على الصواريخ الدقيقة. فواشنطن معنيّة تماماً، كما تل أبيب، في الحؤول دون امتلاك الحزب هذا النوع من الاقتدار العسكري. ليس هذا القرار محصوراً بما يتعلق بأمن «إسرائيل»، وهو أولوية واضحة جداً لديها، بل أيضاً بما يتصل بأجندتها الخاصة بها في المنطقة، التي لا يمكن أو يصعب تحقيقها، مع تعاظم قدرة أعدائها على الإيذاء، إن لها مباشرة أو لأتباعها، الأمر الذي يعني السياسة الأميركية في الإقليم على أكثر من صعيد.

المساندة الأميركية كانت تهديدية واستخبارية، مع العمل على الداخل اللبناني كي يكون وقوداً للمعركة ضد حزب الله. ووسّعت «إسرائيل» مواكبة تحرّكها الدعائي الذي وصل إلى منابر دولية لعرض «المظلومية» وللحديث عن أماكن مختلفة في لبنان ينشط فيه «مشروع الدقة». والمفارقة أنه في الوقت الذي كانت فيه الحملة تستعر ضد الصواريخ الدقيقة، كان يقال للجمهور الإسرائيلي إن مشروع الدقة «مجرّد فكرة».

سعت إسرائيل أيضاً لتحقيق غايتها عبر تحريض اللبنانيين وبيئة حزب الله المباشرة على المقاومة، عبر سرديات مختلفة. من بينها تقارير شارك فيها رئيس حكومة العدو، بنيامين نتنياهو، بشكل استعراضي، عما قيل إنها مصانع للصواريخ الدقيقة تنشط بين الأحياء السكنية. الغاية كانت الإشارة إلى الجمهور اللبناني أن حزب الله يتسبّب بتهديد له، عبر «زرع المصانع» بين المدنيين التي ستكون عرضة لهجمات إسرائيلية تدميرية. كان الأمل بأن يؤدي ذلك إلى انقلاب في لبنان والبيئة المباشرة للمقاومة على حزب الله وإن بوصفه مقاومة. وهو كما العادة، خطأ تقديري متوافق جداً مع أخطاء تقديرية إسرائيلية سابقة تتعلّق بالعلاقة بين حزب الله وجمهوره.

في كل سياقات «مشروع الدقة»، كانت إسرائيل تعمل وتعد العدّة، العسكرية والأمنية ورواية ما بعد الفعل على السواء، ضد الصواريخ الدقيقة لحزب الله. وكانت المحاولة الفاشلة في حي ماضي (شارع معوض)، في الضاحية الجنوبية لبيروت في آب 2019، واحداً من مساعي «إسرائيل» الأمنية التي تحولت نتيجة الفشل العملياتي من عمل أمني بلا بصمات دالة عليها، إلى عمل عسكري صاخب، أدى لاحقاً بعد الرد عليه إلى تكريس أكثر للردع في مواجهة العدو. كانت تل أبيب، حينذاك، أمام استحقاق غير سهل وما زالت، مع سجلّات وفرضيات وأفكار مختلفة وأحاديث عن ضغوط يعاني منها حزب الله، وأخرى ترى أن رد الحزب ليس أمراً حتمياً، أو أنه سيقتصر على أهداف عسكرية إسرائيلية وحسب، بما بات يُعرف بـ«جولة أيام قتالية». وحين كانت «إسرائيل» تجادل نفسها، كان إنتاج الصواريخ الدقيقة مستمراً.

لا يخفى أن أسهم العمل العدائي الأمني، وفي أحيان العسكري، كانت ترتفع ربطاً بمتغيرات تطرأ على الساحة اللبنانية والإقليمية، ظنت محافل القرار في تل أبيب أن بإمكانها لجم حزب الله أو تخفيف رده على اعتداءات قد تلجأ إليها ضد اقتداره العسكري الدقيق. في حينه، كانت أسهم الحرب مرتفعة، وألزمت المقاومة، كما بات معروفاً، باستنفار وحداتها المختلفة. كان الجانبان في تموضع حربي واضح. وكما العادة، عندما تدرك «إسرائيل أنها أخطأت تقدير فاعلية «الظروف» التي ترى أنها تضغط على حزب الله، تتراجع إلى الخلف، لتعود إلى سياسة التهديدات بلا أفعال.

التوثّب كان سمة السنوات الماضية، تماماً كما كان التوثّب المقابل للرد وربما المواجهة الواسعة اللاحقة على الرد. لم تكن المعركة تتوقّف. انتظرت «إسرائيل» الفرصة التي لم تأت. بل إن جاءت كما قدّرت، فوّت عليها حزب الله الفرصة، عبر إظهار إرادة وجدية الرد والذهاب بعيداً في أعقابه، مهما كانت التبعات.

معقولية الحرب، أو الأيام القتالية التي تؤدي إلى حرب، كانت تعلو وتنخفض وفقاً لتقدير توثّب العدو وقرار المواجهة لديه. ما حال دون المجازفة، ولا يزال، هو الكلفة والثمن اللاحقان على الاعتداءات، الأمر الذي أبعد العدوان، وإنْ أبقاه على طاولة اتخاذ القرار في تل أبيب من دون إبعاده بالمطلق.

في السياقات أيضاً، عمدت «إسرائيل» إلى تجزئة تهديد الصواريخ الدقيقة، وإن ظهّرت أن خطها الأحمر ثابت: لن نسمح بالسلاح الدقيق. الهدف كما كان واضحاً، وهو الداخل الإسرائيلي لطمأنته. قيل في البدء إن حزب الله نجح في توفير أجزاء من مكوذنات تصنيع الصواريخ الدقيقة، لكن ما زالت مكوذنات أخرى غير متوفرة. كان الهدف هو التأكيد على أن «مشروع الدقة»، رغم نجاحات حزب الله بالتزوّد بمكوّناته، ما زال «مجرد فكرة». من ثم تجاهلت إسرائيل وامتنعت عن الحديث عن المكوّنات، وعمدت إلى تجزئة التهديد الصاروخي الدقيق نفسه. وكانت هذه التجزئة تمهيداً لاقرار إضافي لم يعد الواقع يسمح بتجاوزه: هناك نوعان من التهديد الدقيق. يتعلق الأول بصواريخ موجودة في لبنان يُعمل على تطويرها كي تصبح دقيقة ومجنّحة وما إلى ذلك، والثاني يتعلق بتصنيع صواريخ تكون من الأساس دقيقة. وهنا جاءت التوليفة: الجزء الثاني أكثر تهديداً من الجزء الأول، وإن كان الجزءان تهديداً لا يُحتمل من ناحية «إسرائيل».

أعقب التجزئة إقرارٌ لاحق بأن حزب الله نجح في تطوير وتصنيع عدد محدود جداً من الصواريخ الدقيقة، التي لا تتجاوز عدد أصابع اليدين. ثم أعقب ذلك حديثٌ عن عشرات الصواريخ… ولاحقاً عن مئات. وما سيَرِدُ من المقبل من الأيام، واضح جداً وقابل للتقدير.

وللدلالة على حجم التهديد من ناحية إسرائيل، نعيد التذكير بأنه «يكفي أن يكون لديك عشرون صاروخاً دقيقاً لتغيّر وجه المعركة»، بحسب ما ورد على لسان أحد قادة العدو العسكريين، قائد المنطقة الشمالية السابق في جيش الاحتلال، اللواء يؤال سترايك، لدى إجابته على واحد من أسئلة الدقّة المتداولة في الكيان.

لفترة طويلة، واظبت «إسرائيل» على القول لجمهورها إن مشروع الصواريخ الدقيقة ليس أكثر من «فكرة»


في أخبار اليومين الماضيين، مفارقة مع ما ورد أمس. إذ أكد رئيس حكومة العدو، بنيامين نتنياهو أنه لن يسمح بصواريخ «عالية الدقة» في سوريا ولبنان. والمفارقة ليست إجمال سوريا في التهديد، بل إيحاؤه أن السلاح الدقيق غير موجود و«إسرائيل» لن تسمح بوجوده.

مع ذلك، معاينة كلمات نتنياهو كما وردت بالعربية على الموقع الرسمي لرئاسة حكومة العدو، من شأنها الإشارة أيضاً إلى نوع آخر من التجزئة، وإن من نوع آخر أكثر دقة. وفقاً لتهديده، «إسرائيل» لن تسمح بصواريخ «عالية الدقة». و«العالية» هنا هي الجديد في كلامه، فهل يقصد التفريق بين صاروخ دقيق مع هامش خطأ مترٍ أو مترين، وآخر مع هامش خطأ سنتمترات؟

ولكي لا نقع في خطأ التقديرات، والركون إلى امتلاك القوة و«إنتاجات» مشروع دقة الصواريخ وغيره من الوسائل القتالية الدقيقة، على أهمية ذلك، يشار إلى أن أصل امتلاك صواريخ متطورة لا يعني – ولا يمكن أن يعني – شيئاً من ناحية «إسرائيل»، إنْ لم تكن إرادة استخدام هذه القدرة موجودة، وهو ما تدركه تل أبيب جيداً، خاصة ما يتعلق منه بالموقف الدفاعي لحزب الله. وعلى هذه الحيثية تحديداً تدور معركة «إسرائيل» وتطلعاتها. وهي تتحيّن الفرصة لاستغلالها إنْ لاحت لها: متى؟ وكيف؟ وما هي مدة تأثير أي ضغوط على حزب الله أو أزمات أو غيرها مما يمنعه من تفعيل إرادة الرد على اعتداءات «إسرائيل»، الأمر الذي يتيح لها التحرك والاعتداء؟ المعركة الحالية بين الجانبين هنا، بعد أن كاد ما يغايرها ينتفي وبلا جدوى ملموسة في تحقيق النتيجة ضد حزب الله.

إذاً هي معركة على قراءة وتقدير نيات حزب الله وإرادته، وعلى قراءة وترقّب أي ظرف يمنعه من تفعيل قدراته رداً على «إسرائيل». في معركة كهذه، الخطأ وارد، ووارد جداً. إلا أنها طبيعة الأمور ونتيجة ملازمة لتوثّب دائم لدى عدو لا يرضى أبداً بتكبيل يديه ومنعه من فرض إرادته على الآخرين. فهل ما كفل إلى الآن منعَه عن الاعتداء العسكري، ينسحب أيضاً على المرحلة الراهنة؟

فيديوات ذات صلة

مقالات ذات صلة

Political commentary in the time of resistance: «Israel» in the position of defense not at the site of the attack…التعليق السياسي في زمن المقاومة : «إسرائيل» في موقع الدفاع لا في موقع الهجوم

**English Machine translation Please scroll down for the Arabic original version **

Political commentary in the time of resistance: «Israel» in the position of defense not at the site of the attack…

Dr. Adnan Mansour

Despite all the statements, warnings, threats of war, which are launched from time to time by “Israeli” political and military leaders against Lebanon and its resistance, despite the war games and provocations, fortifications, iron domes, and the continued aggressive violations of Lebanese sovereignty by land and by sea and air, a reality that cannot be ignored, surrounding the Zionist entity, makes it handcuffed to any future adventure to launch a large-scale aggression against Lebanon, particularly the resistance in it, for many reasons that it cannot stop there, or ignore its repercussions.

For decades since the Zionist entity occupied Palestine in 1948, Israel has been the initiator of any aggression against Arab states, bearing in mind strong support from the West, particularly the United States, which provides it with the means and political cover, and international support during and after the war. This is how Israel has been launching aggression after aggression, since 1955 on the Gaza Strip, 1956 against Egypt during the triple aggression against it, the June 1967 war, the aggression against Beirut International Airport in 1968 and the bombing of civilian aircraft there. The aggression that resulted in the invasion of Lebanese territory in 1982, the aggression of the “Grapes of Wrath” in 1996 and the bombing of power plants in 1999 reached the height of the attacks, which was the large-scale destructive war waged by the enemy against Lebanon in 2006.

“Israel” in its wars always felt its qualitative military superiority, which puts it every time in the position of attack, where it is fighting its wars, moving its battles out of the occupied Palestinian territories, bombing, striking, controlling the territories and making the occupation a fait accompli, reinforced by the support and partiality of the West, without regard to the law and the international community, and the relevant UN resolutions.

A new phase began with the early 1980s, establishing strong equations that began to fluctuate later, the balances, standards, and military standards that prevailed for a period of time, which were permanently in the interest of the enemy.

For the first time, Israel found itself, and its political and military leaders, that they are facing a new situation, and in front of a resistance that is difficult to contain, break or defeat, given the strength it enjoys, the deep belief in its cause and mission, and its diligence in defending the land and people. Resistance imbued with a well-established doctrine, high spirits, reinforced, fortified by thousands of fighters and martyrs hungry to face the occupying aggressors.

The resistance to the widespread “Israeli” aggression against Lebanon in 2006 constituted a milestone and a major strategic turning point in the history of the Arab “Israeli” conflict, as it defeated the “Israeli” army, without achieving its goals to eliminate the resistance, and without allowing its ally the United States create a “New Middle East”. The positions and objectives inside the “Israeli” were bombed for the first time since the establishment of the entity in 1948, where the enemy has not been able to understand what happened to its army at the hands of the resistance, and the repercussions whose effects continue to interact, worry the enemy, and constitute a constant obsession and terror for him, which makes him and the repercussions that still affect the enemy, worry the enemy, and constitute a constant obsession and terror for him, making him calculate a thousand accounts of the resistance before he engages in any military adventure, or war resorted to it.

Today, 15 years after the Zionist aggression, Israel and its military apparatus, as well as external organs, have learned with certainty the readiness, capabilities, equipment, ability of the resistance, the wisdom of its leadership, the metal of its men, its fighters, its mujahedeen, and the cohesion of its popular incubator, which makes it ready to repel any aggression and to destroy “Israeli” installations wherever they are in occupied Palestine. The “Israeli” arm is no longer long alone, wandering whenever it wanted, and destroying whenever it wanted. A long arm is opposed by a longer arm. The “Israeli” entity no longer accepts any aggressive adventure of its army, as no one knows the dire post-war consequences that the “Israelis” will face, which will certainly not be in their favor, and will no longer provide them with the security and stability they want.

The “Israeli” threats will not work, as it is for internal consumption and to accommodate the acute political problems and crisis that Netanyahu and his staff are experiencing. Today, Israel no longer enjoys the open public cover for its wars, by major countries that were constantly standing by it and justifying its aggression. Today it is under the microscope, given its continuous violations of laws and legitimacy, committing massacres against humanity, demolishing Palestinian homes, displacing them, confiscating their lands, in addition to a growing popular awareness and understanding in European and global societies that sympathizes with the Palestinians and their rights, and criticizes and condemns inhuman practices against them. All this puts “Israel” in a dilemma, making it handcuffed, and in a position of defense in front of the resistance in Lebanon and Palestine, and not on the site of the attack. All this puts “Israel” in a dilemma, making it handcuffed, and in a position of defense in front of the resistance in Lebanon and Palestine, and not on the site of the attack.

The equation on the ground has changed in terms of quantity, quality, ability, planning and implementation, and this is what forced the enemy to be in an unenviable position, despite the enormous military arsenal it possesses, so that today it is satisfied with provocations and demonstrations, and military maneuvers, and the threat and intimidation it launches from from time to time, in order to vent its congestion, and to raise the morale of its citizens, rather than a large-scale war, which, according to the estimates of foreign military circles following the “Israeli” in its security, will not be in accordance with the estimates of the foreign military services pursuing the “Israeli” in its own right and security.

It remains for the resistance, its role, its readiness, and free decision of it chooses, in the right place and time, as it will not deter it from defending its entire territory and liberating what it occupied when needed.

The “Israeli” era that prevailed from the beginning of the fifties to the nineties, and the entity’s monopoly over the war decision, has passed away, to be replaced by the era of resistance over the area of ​​the region, imposing its will and writing an honorable history for the nation and its people, while it is facing the state of occupation and aggression.

*Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates

التعليق السياسي في زمن المقاومة : «إسرائيل» في موقع الدفاع لا في موقع الهجوم

د. عدنان منصور _

رغم كلّ التصريحات، والتحذيرات، والتهديدات، والتلويح بالحرب، التي يطلقها القادة السياسيون والعسكريون “الإسرائيليون” من آنٍ الى آخر ضدّ لبنان ومقاومته، ورغم المناورات الحربية والاستفزازات، والتحصينات، والقبب الحديدية، والخروق العدوانية المتواصلة للسيادة اللبنانية براً وبحراً وجواً، فإنّ حقيقة لا يمكن تجاهلها، تحيط بالكيان الصهيوني، تجعله مكبّل اليدين أمام أيّة مغامرة يقوم بها مستقبلاً، لشنّ عدوان واسع النطاق، على لبنان، وبالذات على المقاومة فيه، لاعتبارات عديدة لا يمكن له عدم التوقف عندها، أو التغافل عن تداعياتها.

لقد عمدت “إسرائيل” على مدار عقود منذ احتلال الكيان الصهيوني لفلسطين عام 1948، أن تكون البادئة في شنّ أيّ عدوان على دول عربية، واضعة في حسابها، دعماً قوياً من الغرب، لا سيما الولايات المتحدة التي توفر لها الإمكانات والغطاء السياسي، والدعم الدولي أثناء الحرب وبعدها. هكذا كانت “إسرائيل” تشنّ العدوان تلو العدوان، منذ عام 1955 على قطاع غزة، وعام 1956 على مصر أثناء العدوان الثلاثي عليها، وحرب حزيران عام 1967، والعدوان على مطار بيروت الدولي عام 1968 وتفجير الطائرات المدنيّة فيه، والعدوان الذي أسفر عن اجتياح الأراضي اللبنانية عام 1982، وعدوان “عناقيد الغضب” عام 1996 وقصف محطات الكهرباء عام 1999 وصولاً إلى ذروة الاعتداءات، وهي الحرب التدميرية الواسعة النطاق التي شنّها العدو على لبنان عام 2006.

لقد كانت “إسرائيل” في حروبها، تشعر على الدوام بتفوّقها العسكري النوعيّ الذي يجعلها كلّ مرة في موقع الهجوم، حيث كانت تخوض حروبها، وتنقل معاركها الى خارج الأراضي الفلسطينية المحتلة، تقصف ولا تُقصف، تضرب ولا تُضرب، تسيطر على الأراضي وتجعل من الاحتلال أمراً واقعاً، يعززه تأييد وانحياز غربي وقح لها، من دون أيّ اعتبار للقانون والمجتمع الدولي، وللقرارات الأممية ذات الصلة.

كان التفوّق العسكري الجوي “الإسرائيلي” على الدوام يغطي السماء الفلسطينية، يدفع بالعدو كي يتمادى في عدوانه وعنجهيّته وغروره، حتى جاء الوقت الذي بدأت فيه المعادلات العسكرية والبشرية النوعية ترسم خريطتها على الأرض. إذ بدأت مرحلة جديدة مع مطلع الثمانينيات، تؤسّس لمعادلات قوية بدأت تقلب في ما بعد، التوازنات والمعايير، والمقاييس العسكرية التي كانت سائدة لفترة من الزمن، والتي كانت تصبّ بشكل دائم في صالح العدو.

للمرة الأولى وجدت “إسرائيل” نفسها، وقادتها السياسيون والعسكريون، أنهم أمام وضع جديد، وأمام مقاومة يصعب احتواؤها، أو كسرها او هزيمتها، نظراً لما تتمتع به من أسباب القوة، والإيمان العميق بقضيتها ورسالتها، واستبسالها في الدفاع عن الأرض والإنسان. مقاومة مشبعة بعقيدة راسخة، وبالمعنويات والروح القتالية العالية، معزّزة، ومحصّنة بآلاف المقاتلين والاستشهاديين المتعطشين لمواجهة المعتدين المحتلين.

لقد شكلت المقاومة للعدوان “الإسرائيلي” الواسع النطاق على لبنان عام 2006، علامة فارقة ومنعطفاً استراتيجياً كبيراً في تاريخ الصراع العربي “الإسرائيلي”، حيث ألحقت الهزيمة بالجيش “الإسرائيلي”، من دون أن يحقق أهدافه في القضاء على المقاومة، ومن دون أن يتيح لحليفته الولايات المتحدة إنشاء “الشرق الأوسط الجديد”. إذ كانت المواقع والأهداف في الداخل “الإسرائيلي” تقصف للمرة الأولى منذ إنشاء الكيان عام 1948، حيث لم يستطع العدو حتى اليوم استيعاب ما حلّ بجيشه على يد المقاومين، والتداعيات التي لا تزال آثارها تتفاعل، تقلق العدو، وتشكل هاجساً ورعباً دائماً له، يجعله يحسب ألف حساب للمقاومة قبل أن يخوض أيّ مغامرة عسكرية، أو حرب يلجأ إليها.

اليوم ومع مرور خمسة عشر عاماً على العدوان، الصهيوني، تعلم “إسرائيل” وأجهزتها العسكرية، كما الأجهزة الخارجية، علم اليقين مدى استعداد، وقدرات، وتجهيزات، واقتدار المقاومة، وحكمة قيادتها، ومعدن رجالها، ومقاتليها، ومجاهديها، وتماسك حاضنتها الشعبية، ما يجعلها على أتمّ استعداد لصدّ أيّ عدوان، وأن تلحق الدمار بالمنشآت “الإسرائيلية” أينما كانت في فلسطين المحتلة. لم تعد الذراع “الإسرائيلية” طويلة وحدها تعربد متى شاءت، وتدمّر متى ما أرادت. فالذراع الطويلة تقابلها ذراع أطول، والدمار الذي كان يلحقه العدو بنا، لن يكون بعد اليوم بعيداً عنه ومحصّناً بقبَبه الحديدية. كما أنّ الكيان “الإسرائيلي”، لم يعد يتقبّل أيّ مغامرة عدوانية لجيشه، حيث لا أحد يعرف النتائج الوخيمة ما بعد الحرب التي سيواجهها “الإسرائيليون”، وهي بالتأكيد لن تكون في صالحهم، ولن توفر لهم بعد ذلك الأمن والاستقرار الذي يريدونه.

إنّ التهويل والتهديد والترهيب، والتخويف، والوعيد “الإسرائيلي”، لن يجدي ولن ينفع، فهو للاستهلاك الداخلي، ولاستيعاب المشاكل والأزمة السياسية الحادّة التي يعاني منها نتنياهو وشلته. فـ “إسرائيل” اليوم لم تعد تتمتع وتحظى بالغطاء العلني السافر المكشوف لحروبها، من قبل دول كبرى كانت تقف باستمرار الى جانبها، وتبرّر عدوانها، فهي اليوم تحت المجهر، نظراً لخروقاتها المتمادية المستمرة للقوانين والشرعية الدولية، وارتكابها المجازر ضدّ الإنسانية، وهدمها منازل الفلسطينيين، وتهجيرهم، ومصادرة أراضيهم، وملاحقتها أمام محكمة الجنايات الدولية، بالإضافة الى إدراك وتفهّم شعبي متنام في المجتمعات الأوروبية والعالمية، يتعاطف مع الفلسطينيين وحقوقهم، وينتقد ويدين الممارسات اللاإنسانية ضدّهم. كلّ ذلك يضع “إسرائيل” في مأزق، يجعلها مكبّلة اليدين، وفي موقع الدفاع أمام المقاومة في لبنان وفلسطين، وليس في موقع الهجوم.

إنّ المعادلة على الأرض تغيّرت كمّاً ونوعاً، واقتداراً، وتخطيطاً وتنفيذاً، وهذا ما أجبر العدو أن يكون في موقع لا يُحسَد عليه، رغم الترسانة العسكرية الهائلة التي يمتلكها، بحيث يكتفي اليوم بالاستفزازات والاستعراضات التي يقوم بها، والمناورات العسكرية، والتهديد، والتهويل الذي يطلقه من وقت الى آخر، تنفيساً لاحتقانه، ورفع معنويات مواطنيه، عوضاً عن حرب واسعة يشنّها، لن تكون وفقاً لتقديرات الدوائر العسكرية الأجنبية المتابعة للشأن “الإسرائيلي” في صالح العدو وأمنه، واستمرار وجوده.

يبقى للمقاومة دورها، وجهوزيتها، وقرارها الحرّ الذي تختاره، في المكان والزمان المناسبين، حيث لن يثنيها عن الدفاع عن كامل أرضها وتحرير ما احتلّ منها حين تدعو الحاجة ويدق النفير.

إنّ العصر “الإسرائيلي” الذي ساد من مطلع الخمسينيات الى التسعينيات، واحتكار الكيان لقرار الحرب قد أفل، ليحلّ مكانه عصر المقاومات على مساحة المنطقة، يفرض إرادته، ويكتب تاريخاً مشرّفاً للأمة وشعوبها، وهي في مواجهة دولة الاحتلال والعدوان.

*وزير الخارجية والمغتربين الأسبق

The Israeli intelligence assessment confirms: Hezbollah is determined to defend and respond التقدير الاستخباري الإسرائيلي يقرّ: حزب الله مصمّم على الدفاع والرد

التقدير الاستخباري الإسرائيلي يقرّ:  حزب الله مصمّم على الدفاع والرد
(مروان طحطح)

Al-Akhbar

Ali Haidar

Thursday, February 11, 2021

It is clear that the annual Israeli intelligence assessment — specifically those relating to Hezbollah — is only a fraction of the size and details of the estimate, which usually deals with the picture of reality, the situation, the threats and opportunities involved, possible scenarios, to the intelligence recommendations of the political level that have never been mentioned about Hezbollah. However, Israeli media reports quoted what censorship allowed to be published, about the effects of the economic and health crisis and the extent to which it affects the will of Israel’s enemies, and Hezbollah’s determination to respond in the face of any attacks, through the intelligence assessment of the possibility of “combat days”, between the enemy army and Hezbollah, in a reference to the exclusion of war, while the parties will exchange strikes deliberately and precisely, with the aim of trying to strengthen the ability of both sides to strengthen its deterrence. Although the estimate acknowledged that developments in the region in the tenure of former U.S. President Donald Trump did not curb the growing capabilities of Israel’s enemies, he was careful to repeat the talk of precision missiles, as the greatest threat to Israel’s national security.

Israel’s hopes that the spread of Corona and the economic crisis that Lebanon is facing have not succeeded as a constraint on Hezbollah’s will to perpetuate and reinforce the deterrence equation that provided Lebanon with an umbrella of protection and strategic security, and the same concept applies to more than one regional arena that is hostile to Israel. The failure of this bet was evident in the annual intelligence assessment for the current year, upon acknowledging that all the challenges and difficulties did not harm “the will and capabilities of Israel’s enemies to act against them,” to confirm Israeli media reports that the assessment formed in the army and intelligence confirms that all of this did not harm “neither the capabilities nor the preparations. » This was also preceded by the army chief of staff, Aviv Kohavi, in his speech to the National Security Research Institute conference at the beginning of this year, that “missiles do not get sick, and the second party can decide at any time to operate them.”

Nevertheless, it seems clear that one of the most important characteristics of Hezbollah’s accomplishments is not only that it was able to impose field and strategic facts … It has also succeeded in making the enemy’s institutions of appreciation and decision aware of the institutions of appreciation and decision, which has been reflected in their perception, understanding and appreciation of reality and the threats and constraints involved. Threats and restraints restrictions. After more than six months have passed since the martyrdom of one of his resistance fighters in Syria, the intelligence assessment acknowledged that Hezbollah still has the determination and resolve to respond to the enemy’s army. This indicates Hezbollah’s keenness to curb any thinking of the enemy’s leaders in the persistence of attacks, and the ease of targeting its resistance fighters in Syria or Lebanon.

This statement by the intelligence establishment comes at a time when Lebanon is suffering from worsening economic, social and health crises.    

Precision missiles remain the most visible threat at the enemy’s decision-making table.

The head of military intelligence, Major General Tamir  Hayman,noted that “although the economies of the Middle East are deteriorating and [suffering] from the Corona epidemic, the effort to build force in the region has not been affected.” In previous days, the Israeli army’s “estimates” that Hezbollah now possessed hundreds of precision rockets were leaked to the Israeli media.

But as is customary in all arenas,the enemy blames the resistance forces, ignoring the fact that Hezbollah is in a position to defend Lebanon’s sovereignty and security.

التقدير الاستخباري الإسرائيلي يقرّ: حزب الله مصمّم على الدفاع والرد

التقدير الاستخباري الإسرائيلي يقرّ:  حزب الله مصمّم على الدفاع والرد

الأخبار

علي حيدر

 الخميس 11 شباط 2021

من الواضح أن ما تم السماح بعرضه في وسائل الإعلام من التقدير الاستخباري الإسرائيلي السنوي – وتحديداً ما يتعلق منه بحزب الله – ليس إلّا جزءاً يسيراً من حجم التقدير وتفاصيله التي عادة ما تتناول صورة الواقع والوضع وما تنطوي عليه من تهديدات وفرص، مروراً باستشراف السيناريوات المرجّحة والمحتمّلة والممكنة، وصولاً إلى التوصيات التي تقدّمها الاستخبارات للمستوى السياسي والتي لم تتم الإشارة إليها مطلقاً بشأن حزب الله. مع ذلك، فقد اقتبست التقارير الإعلامية الإسرائيلية ما سمحت الرقابة بنشره، حول مفاعيل الأزمة الاقتصادية والصحية ومدى تأثيرها على إرادة أعداء إسرائيل، وتصميم حزب الله على الردّ في مواجهة أيّ اعتداءات، مروراً بتقدير الاستخبارات إزاء إمكانية نشوب «أيام قتالية»، بين جيش العدو وحزب الله، في إشارة إلى استبعاد الحرب، وفي الوقت نفسه أن الطرفين سيتبادلان الضربات بشكل مدروس ومضبوط، بهدف محاولة كلّ من الطرفين تعزيز قدرة ردعه. ومع أن التقدير أقرّ بأن المستجدات التي شهدتها المنطقة في ولاية الرئيس الأميركي السابق دونالد ترامب، لم تؤدِّ إلى كبح تعاظم قدرات أعداء «إسرائيل»، إلّا أنه حرص على تكرار الحديث عن الصواريخ الدقيقة، باعتبارها التهديد الأكبر على الأمن القومي الإسرائيلي.

لم تنجح آمال «إسرائيل» بأن يشكّل انتشار كورونا والأزمة الاقتصادية التي يواجهها لبنان قيداً على إرادة حزب الله في تكريس وتعزيز معادلة الردع التي وفّرت للبنان مظلة حماية وأمن استراتيجي، والمفهوم نفسه ينسحب على أكثر من ساحة إقليمية تعادي إسرائيل. تجلّى فشل هذا الرهان في التقدير الاستخباري السنوي، للعام الجاري، لدى الإقرار بأنّ كل التحديات والصعوبات لم تضرّ «بإرادة وقدرات أعداء إسرائيل للعمل ضدها»، ليؤكّد تقارير إعلامية إسرائيلية بأن التقدير المتشكّل في الجيش والاستخبارات يؤكّد أنّ كلّ ذلك لم يضر «لا بالقدرات ولا بالاستعدادات». وسبقت ذلك أيضاً إشارة رئيس أركان الجيش أفيف كوخافي، في كلمته أمام مؤتمر معهد أبحاث الأمن القومي مطلع السنة الجارية، إلى أن «الصواريخ لا تمرض، ويمكن في أي وقت أن يقرّر الطرف الثاني تشغيلها».

مع ذلك، يبدو واضحاً أن من أهم ما يميز إنجازات حزب الله، ليس حصراً أنه استطاع أن يفرض وقائع ميدانية واستراتيجية… بل أنه نجح أيضاً في كيّ وعي مؤسّسات التقدير والقرار لدى العدو، وهو ما انعكس في نظرتهم وفهمهم وتقديراتهم للواقع وما ينطوي عليه من تهديدات وقيود كابحة. فبعد مضي أكثر من ستة أشهر على استشهاد أحد مقاوميه في سوريا، أقرّ التقدير الاستخباري بأنّ حزب الله لا يزال يملك التصميم والعزم للردّ على جيش العدو. وهو ما يؤشّر إلى حرص حزب الله على كبح أيّ تفكير لدى قادة العدو في التمادي في الاعتداءات، واستسهال استهداف مقاوميه في سوريا أو لبنان.

يأتي هذا الإقرار من قِبل المؤسسة الاستخبارية في الوقت الذي يعاني فيه لبنان من أزمات اقتصادية واجتماعية وصحّية متفاقمة. حضرت بعض تفاصيله في ما تم نشره من التقدير. وهذه الأزمات كان يُفترض بحسب الرهانات الإسرائيلية أن تشكل قيداً على حزب الله، وبالتالي تبلور فرصة تؤدّي إلى اتّساع هامش اعتداءات العدو. لكن تصميم حزب الله وعزمه على المواجهة بدّدا هذا الأمل والرهان.

لا تزال الصواريخ الدقيقة تمثّل التهديد الأكثر حضوراً على طاولة صنّاع القرار لدى العدو


وقد لفت رئيس الاستخبارات العسكرية، اللواء تامير هايمن، إلى أنه «رغم أن اقتصادات الشرق الأوسط في حالة تدهور و[تعاني من] وباء كورونا، لكن لم يتضرر مجهود بناء القوة في المنطقة». وضمن هذا الإطار لا تزال الصواريخ الدقيقة، كما في السنوات الماضية، تمثّل التهديد الأكثر حضوراً على طاولة صنّاع القرار في كيان العدو، وعلى رأس أولويات أجهزة الاستخبارات والجيش. واتّسمت مقاربة التقدير لهذا التحدي في السنة الحالية، بكونها نسخة مطابقة للمبادئ التي حكمت تقديرات السنوات السابقة، عبر الحفاظ على صياغة مُحدَّدة يبدو أنها تهدف إلى إخفاء المعطيات الجدية. وفي الأيام السابقة، تسرّبت إلى الإعلام الإسرائيلي «تقديرات» جيش الاحتلال بأن حزب الله بات يملك مئات الصواريخ الدقيقة. لكن التقدير الاستخباري لم يجارِ هذه التسريبات التي تتقاطع مع ما ألمح إليه الأمين العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصر الله. وهو أمر قد يكون مفهوماً في بعض خلفيّاته باعتباره جزءاً من سياسة تعتيم مدروسة لها سياقاتها ورهاناتها وأهدافها المتّصلة بالساحتَين الداخلية الإسرائيلية والإقليمية – الردعية.
وتناول التقدير الاستخباري سيناريو جولة «أيام قتالية» على الحدود مع لبنان، في أعقاب رد حزب الله. ولكن كما هي العادة في كل الساحات، يلقي العدوّ بالمسؤولية على قوى المقاومة، متجاهلاً حقيقة أن حزب الله هو في موقع المدافع والرد عن سيادة لبنان وأمنه. لكن هذا النوع من المقاربة يكشف عن أن مسعى العدو الأساسي يكمن في التأسيس لمعادلة ينفّذ فيها اعتداءاته من دون أن يتلقى ردوداً رادعة. وهو ما لم ينجح في تحقيقه حتى الآن.

Report Finds “Israel” Unprepared to Fight Hezbollah

Report Finds “Israel” Unprepared to Fight Hezbollah

By Staff, The National Interest

Ironically, the “Israeli” Occupation Forces [IOF] – which prides itself on flexibility to rapidly adapt to the chaos of battle – bases its approach on the mission-oriented tactics of the World War II German army. Yet despite being a virtuoso on the battlefield, the Wehrmacht’s logistics skills were often lacking: German troops constantly ran out of fuel, ammunition and food during Operation Barbarossa, the 1941 invasion of the Soviet Union.

If the “Israeli” entity has to go to war tomorrow against Iran or the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah, there’s a problem.

The “Israeli” mechanized division that would defend the entity’s northern border, or enter Syria or Lebanon to eject Iranian and Iranian allied forces, are in bad shape.

The 319th Division, stationed in northern “Israeli” entity, is short of equipment such as tanks, and the equipment it does have is in poor condition, according to IOF audit cited by “Israeli” news site Ynet.

“According to the audit’s findings, 52 percent of combat vehicles are unfit for use and there is a 20 percent shortage of weapons and night-vision equipment for soldiers,” Ynet said.

“The auditors found that many armored vehicles were lacking during proper maintenance checks, with 68 of them sitting uncovered and unprotected against the elements. Dozens of other vehicles were found unusable due to faulty tires and broken engines, and only 34 percent of oil tankers and more than 33 percent of cranes were also found to be unusable.

The Ynet article was accompanied by photographs that showed vehicles in a dilapidated condition or unprotected by tarps against the elements.

Auditors found that the problem extended to the 319th Division’s support units, as well. “The Northern Command’s logistics unit, upon which the 319th Division relies in times of war, has a shortage in communications equipment and vehicles for medical evacuation, and the division’s medical unit hasn’t had a commanding officer or lieutenant for almost a year.”

One reason for the 319th Division’s woes is that there isn’t enough equipment to meet both operational and training needs. “The audit found that about half of the 319th Division’s Mark 4 Merkava tanks and almost 100 communication devices have been lent to the Armored Corps training unit, located more than 350 kilometers [217 miles] from their main storage and maintenance areas in the north,” Ynet said.

That peacetime military units are short of equipment and personnel isn’t exactly unique to the “Israeli” entity. A recent audit found that US Army brigade combat teams lack sufficient vehicles and equipment,  while the US Navy doesn’t have enough spare parts to keep all its F/A-18E/F Super Hornets flying.

Yet the 319th Division’s woes reflect a larger pattern in the IOF. In the 2006 “Israel”-Hezbollah War, “Israeli” troops suffered from shortages of basic items, from food and water to ammunition, as well as poorly trained logistics personnel.

But as this writer learned while observing an “Israeli” armored brigade on maneuvers along the occupied Golan Heights in February 2019, the IOF may have only hours to prepare for battle along the entity’s northern border.

Time to fix mistakes is a luxury the “Israeli” entity does not have.

Israeli Army Prepares for “Horrible Scenario” in Mount Hermon: Major Rocketry Attack and Infantry Invasion

January 12, 2021

Capture

Source: Al-Manar English Website

Amid the Zionist military alert on border with Lebanon in anticipation of Hezbollah response to the Israeli crime of killing one of the Resistance fighters in an air raid on Syria in 2020, the enemy’s army conducted a drill in Moun Hermon which simulates a major rocketry attack on the area.

The Israeli army officers said they were preparing for the horrible scenario which supposes that Mount Hermon will be exposed to a rocketry attack and an infantry invasion during the presence of thousands of settlers for recreational purposes.

The Zionist military commanders pointed out that the drill concentrates mainly on the evacuation of the settlers and providing first aids to those would be injured by the missile fire.

The military drill also took into consideration the harsh weather conditions, according to the Israeli military officers who expected that a large number of Zionists would be wounded during the anticipated attack.

On July 20, 2020, the Israeli occupation army launched an air raid on Syria, claiming Hezbollah fighter Ali Mohsen.

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah vowed that the Resistance will certainly respond to the Israeli, which pushed the enemy’s military units to avoid the direct appearance on Lebanon’s border.

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Chicken run: Lebanese boy risks life and limb to rescue runaway fowl from Israel

Hussein Shartoony becomes an unexpected hero after Israeli soldiers fire bullets into the air as he attempts to rescue his friend

By Nur Ayoubi

Published date: 16 December 2020 14:35 UTC | Last update: 5 hours 2 mins ago

Hezbollah may be Israel’s most pressing threat on the Lebanese border, but a chicken-related incident has indicated that the Israeli army is frightened of a military coop, too.

Hussein Shartoony, a young Lebanese boy from the southern village of Meiss el-Jabal, has won plaudits for his bravery after risking life and limb to rescue a runaway chicken that had made a break for Lebanon’s enemy to the south.

The youth is reported to have completed the rescue operation despite Israeli troops firing into the air in an attempt to shoo Shartoony away.

‘I wasn’t scared because I wanted my chicken’

– Hussein Shartoony

In a video that has been viewed over 100,000 times on Twitter, Shartoony explains how the day before the incident, his father had purchased two chickens for Hussein and two for his brother.

As the two brothers opened the chicken hutch the next morning, one of Hussein’s chickens escaped towards a fence guarded by Israeli soldiers.

Shartoony explains: “I went to catch my chicken, but from their fear, the Israelis started to shoot at the sky and the wind.”

When asked if he was scared, he assuredly replies that he was not. “I wasn’t scared because I wanted my chicken.”

Shartoony’s resolute statement of “I want my chicken” has resonated with social media users and was made into an Arabic hashtag.

Online, people have used the phrase in a hashtag to commend Hussein’s courage.

Translation: Whoever does not give up on his chicken cannot give up a homeland. Thank you to this southern cub who isn’t afraid of tanks and those who shelter in them and provided a lesson in dignity and patriotism. Please listen to him.

Translation: Oh the innocence of this child who carries within him the claim to his rights without abandoning them no matter what. He did not pay attention to the bullets as much as the demand for his right.

Others took the opportunity to ridicule the Israeli army for their reaction.

Translation: The chicken which terrorised the Zionists today at the border which led to bullets being fired by the occupation army. If a chicken did this to you what would happen if we sent a rooster?

Meanwhile, some regarded Hussein’s story as a metaphor for the Palestinian claim over their land.

Translation: We won’t even give up a chicken, you want us to give up Palestine?

Israel has invaded Lebanon several times, and occupied its south between 1982 and 2000.

Meiss el-Jabal is about 2km from the United Nations-demarcated Blue Line between Lebanon and Israel. The Blue Line is a border demarcation that the UN created in 2000 to measure whether Israel had fully withdrawn from the south. Lebanon says Israel still occupies some parts of its territory, including the Shebaa Farms.

Since the Israeli pullout, the border has been witness to multiple clashes, and work is ongoing to rid the area of landmines.

In 2018, Israel seized a Lebanese shepherd tending to his flock. His sheep returned to his town of Shebaa without him.

Middle East Eye has asked the Israeli military if it thinks firing live ammunition in the air is an appropriate way to warn a young child, and whether it would commit to returning any wantaway livestock in the future.

The Israeli military had not responded by the time of publication.

Hussein Al-Shartouni: A Boy with Nine Years of Age, A Lifetime of Dignity, Persistence

Source

Hussein Al-Shartouni: A Boy with Nine Years of Age, A Lifetime of Dignity, Persistence

Subtitled by Staff

This video shows a nine-year-old boy from South Lebanon, telling the story of his chicken that ran away towards the ‘Israeli’-occupied Palestinian territories, along the border of his village of Meis al-Jabal… 

As much as Hussein al-Shartouni’s words reveal his childish innocence, they also represent a very small example of how the free people pursue their rights in this piece of land, the land of dignity and resistance

.

Hide and Fire: ‘Israeli’ Soldiers Terrified by Boy Chasing Hen along Lebanon-Palestine Border!

By Staff

A nine-year-old boy from South Lebanon has frightened the ‘Israeli’ occupation soldiers stationed in a point near the Lebanese border with the occupied Palestinian territories, prompting the Zionist soldiers to open fire in the air.

In further details, al-Manar TV correspondent in South Lebanon, Ali Shoaib, posted on his Twitter account that the enemy forces fired ten bullets in the air along the border of Meis al-Jabal village, from where the boy comes.

He then added that the incident took place after the nine-year-old boy came near the border while chasing a hen beside his house that is next to the barbed wire.

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Hezbollah Special Forces to Infiltrate, Take Control of Several ‘Israeli’ Settlements – INSS Study

Hezbollah Special Forces to Infiltrate, Take Control of Several ‘Israeli’ Settlements - INSS Study

By Staff

A 73-page study by the ‘Israeli’ entity’s Institute for National Security Studies [INSS] exposed the weakness the Zionist military would show in any future war with Hezbollah.

With the northern front being the most difficult and main challenge for the ‘Israeli’ entity, and today’s estimations hinting that neither Hezbollah nor Iran are interested in a battle with ‘Israel’, readiness for a possible escalation or war breakout is required, as a result of the transformations or the wrong estimations in this regard.

According to the study, ‘Israel’ will face in the future war new and more difficult challenges than the ones it faced before amid the new threats that will affect a war’s characteristics, if it happened.

Supposing that the war will take place on two fronts at one, the military and civilian fronts, the latter will be hit with a higher average of missiles, in comparison with the previous conflicts, especially in the first stage of war. At the same time, the number of launched missiles will cover a wider range than that in previous conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas. Relatively, the civilian front will be endangered on different levels, which impedes the ‘security’ Zionist settlers currently feel.

Meanwhile, the head of institute declared that “the situation is alarming for the ‘Israeli’ society. He explained that the lack of the spirit of common destiny, common goal, solidarity, and readiness to bear the burdens during the Coronavirus crisis raise major concerns regarding the results of war.”

Brigadier General Udi Dekel warned of several related scenarios, including attacks targeting the internal ‘Israeli’ front using thousands of missiles, dozens of which are precision-guided ones. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles [UAVs] are also set to be deployed simultaneously from different fronts.

Additionally, several Special Units from Hezbollah forces will infiltrate to the occupied territories and take control of the border settlements, vital facilities along the Lebanese border, as well as the occupied Golan, the study noted, warning that severe damage will be caused to strategic targets within the Zionist entity.

The study came up with a conclusion that the battle will be fought on different fronts in Lebanon, Syria, west Iraq and the possible involvement of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

The study’s conductors pointed that the scenario of the sudden attack, when the ‘Israeli’ ‘defense’ systems are not ready, may harm the military capability. This will reflect in a spontaneous response, readiness of the aerial forces, and mobilization of reserve forces.

In any scenario, the study added, ‘Israel’s’ enemy will focus on causing damage inside the civilian front, and breaking the Zionist entity’s economy.

AZERBAIJAN RESCHEDULES ‘VICTORY DAY’ TO PLEASE SULTAN ERDOGAN. HEZBOLLAH DRONE BUZZES ISRAELI FORCES

South Front

An unmanned aerial vehicle operated by Lebanese Hezbollah managed to cross into Israel’s north and monitor the Israeli military drills dubbed “Lethal Arrow”, Lebanese media affiliated with Hezbollah reported on December 3. The incident allegedly took place on November 26, on the second day of the drills.

The Israeli side promoted the drill as an exercise to put to the test a strategy based on network-centered warfare bringing together the capabilities of ground, air, naval and cyber forces to quickly eliminate hostile targets in the event of the conflict in the area. The Hezbollah drone buzzed Israeli forces just during these military exercises. Additionally, on December 3, the Israeli government urged its citizens to avoid travel to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, citing threats of Iranian attacks.

At the same time, the United States and its allies continue demonstrating concerns regarding possible attacks in Iraq in the wake of an expected Iranian retaliation to the assassination of its top nuclear scientist near Tehran in an alleged US-Israeli plot. According to media reports, following the earlier move of the United States, France and Spain are also considering at least partial withdrawal of diplomatic staff from Iraq. US officials speculate that Iranian-backed factions of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, an official branch of the Iraqi military, are preparing attacks on facilities and personnel of the US diplomatic mission.

Meanwhile, in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan for the first time released an official number of its casualties in the Second Nagorno-Karabkah War. According to the defense ministry, 2783 Azerbaijani soldiers were killed, 1245 were injured and over 100 are still missing. In own turn, the Health Ministry of Armenia reported that at least 2718 Armenian soldiers were killed as a result of the conflict. The almost equal casualties of the advancing and defending forces in the standoff in such a complex mountainous area as Nagorno-Karabkah is another factual demonstration of the overwhelming Azerbaijani dominance in the manpower, and firepower, including heavy military equipment, artillery and air support, the in the 1.5-month conflict with the Armenians.

Azerbaijan, however, seems to have already started paying price of its sovereignty for the Turkish support in the war. On December 2, President Ilham Aliyev declared the establishment of the new national holiday ‘Victory Day’ in Azerbaijan. The holiday scheduled for November 10 was dedicated to the start of the implementation of the peace agreements in Karabakh, under which Armenian forces in fact accepted their defeat and agreed to withdraw from Agdam, Kalbajar and Lachin districts.However, a day later Baku was reminded by Ankara that November 10 is the Day of Remembrance of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Republic of Turkey. So, on December 3, the presidential administration of Azerbaijan changed its order and rescheduled the Azerbaijani national holiday for November 8. Let’s hope the Big Neo-Ottoman Brother is now satisfied. In other case, the Azerbaijani leadership will have to reschedule a few more national holidays and rename ministries to please it.

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If This Is the Way ‘Israel’ Monitors Hezbollah, Then It Better Brace Itself!

If This Is the Way ‘Israel’ Monitors Hezbollah, Then It Better Brace Itself!

By Fatimah Haydar

Beirut – It is no secret that the “Israeli” entity eyes Hezbollah, the Lebanese Resistance Group, closely. It monitors the group’s every move be it on the battle fields or its media outlets.

Recently, the “Israeli” news website Ynet reported that a Hezbollah drone infiltrated what the “Israelis” call their “territory” – occupied Palestine so to speak.

In its report, the news outlet was keen to reveal the aerial capability of the “Israeli” Occupation Forces [IOF] – which according to it was holding a military drill “to train for defense against drone attacks”. 

To make a long story short, let’s take a look at an excerpt from the report which is supposed to be a Breaking News material – a way the entity shows its settlers that it is always aware of the activities of Hezbollah.

The excerpt reads as follows:

“A UAV belonging to the Hezbollah ‘terror’ group infiltrated ‘Israeli’ territory on Thursday according to a report in the Al Nahar television channel considered close to the Iran-backed organization.”

“The infiltration was said to take place during the second day of an ‘IDF’ military exercise, to train for defense against drone attacks, taking place along the ‘Israel’-Lebanon border.”

If This Is the Way ‘Israel’ Monitors Hezbollah, Then It Better Brace Itself!

You’re probably wondering what’s wrong with these lines. Well, they’re perfectly correct grammatically and language-wise, but wrong in every sense of the word in core. A second reading of the paragraphs with a bit of knowledge on current events reveals the gaffes.

The “Israeli” military exercise Ynet was referring to was the 5-day drill dubbed the “Lethal Arrow” that began on Sunday, October 25 and ended on Thursday, October 29.

Now, according to the Ynet report, the Hezbollah drone infiltration took place on the “second day” of the IOF drills, which based on the dates we have mentioned earlier, should be on Monday, October 26 and not Thursday because that would be the last day of the drill.

But what’s worse is that if Ynet referred to Thursday, December 3 – which is a month and a couple of days after the “Lethal Arrow” drills – to be the day of infiltration! They should get their facts straight.

This is one.

The other error, which is more important, is that the report cited “Al Nahar television channel” which it said was “considered close to the Iran-backed organization” – i.e. Hezbollah.

First, Al-Nahar is not a TV channel; it is a Lebanese newspaper. Second, it is not affiliated to Hezbollah in any sense as Ynet stated.

So, if we were to be lenient on the media outlet, we would say that it was a typo; instead of typing the letter M, to cite Hezbollah-owned al-Manar Channel, the editor typed N instead. It’s a common mistake though, since on a QWERTY keyboard both letters M and N are next to each other.

However, it was not the al-Manar that reported the incident, but the Lebanese al-Akhbar newspaper. Al-Akhbar said that al-Manar will broadcast images taken by the reconnaissance plane.

This shows lack of professionalism on behalf of the “Israeli” outlet, attributing information to the wrong source. A mistake like this reveals how ignorant the enemy Hezbollah is dealing with. If not ignorant, indolent!

Perhaps it was a slip, perhaps it was intended; but I doubt the latter. Though, let’s not assume the worst! After all, no one is perfect! Not even the so-called invincible army.

If this is the way “Israel” and its media outlets monitor its enemies, then the “Israelis” better brace themselves because they are heading for a brick wall! No wonder why Hezbollah is always one step ahead.

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تلميحٌ لردّ إيرانيّ؟ الحرب المقبلة لن تعرف القيود

 الناصرة – زهير أندراوس

زهير أندراوس نبض الوعي العربي

قالت دراسة صادرة عن مركز دراسات الأمن القومي التابع لجامعة تل أبيب إنّ التوتر المطوّل بين الجيش «الإسرائيلي» وحزب الله في الشمال يُمكن أنْ يُشير إلى أنّهما في خضمّ عدد من التحركات الخاطئة من أيام المعركة التي يمكن أنْ تتصاعد وتتحوّل إلى حرب، مع عدم وجود تحذير تقريباً من أنّ الجيش «الإسرائيلي» سيسمح للحزب بأنْ يُفاجئه، بحسب تعبيرها.

وأردفت الدراسة قائلةً إنّه في الوقت نفسه، تُواجِه «إسرائيل» أزمة كورونا وأزمة سياسية مستمرة، ممّا يؤدّي إلى تأخير تنفيذ العمليات الحيوية في بناء قوات الجيش «الإسرائيلي»، مع التركيز على الميزانية وشراء الطائرات وأنظمة القتال، وكذلك مخطط تدريب الجيش الذي أقرّته القيادة، أيْ أنّ عدم إقرار المستوى السياسيّ في تل أبيب الموازنة يُعيق خطط الجيش الإسرائيليّ، طبقاً للدراسة.

وشدّدّت الدراسة على أنّ الأزمة السياسية الداخليّة «الإسرائيليّة» أيضاً أوجدت أوجه قصور في الحوار المستمرّ بين الحكومة والجيش، معتبرةً أنّ هذا الحوار هو “عنصر حاسم في قدرة إسرائيل على اتخاذ القرارات، سواء في مجال بناء القوة أوْ في مجال استخدام القوّة، على حدٍّ سواء”.

وأوضحت الدراسة أنّه على الرغم من جائحة (كورونا) والأزمة السياسيّة الداخليّة في الدولة العبريّة، يجب أنْ يكون الجيش «الإسرائيلي» مستعداً للتصعيد والتدريب، حتى في مواجهة مخاطر كورونا، ليكون جاهزاً وحاضراً للحرب.

وأشارت الدراسة إلى أنّ الضرر المحتمل للتصعيد في الساحة الشمالية، والذي يفوق بكثير حجم الضرر الذي قد تلحقه حماس بـ «إسرائيل» في الجنوب، قد يجعل من الصعب على «إسرائيل» وحزب الله السيطرة على التطورات ومنعها من أنْ تصبح حملةً واسعة النطاق.

أمّا عن تفاصيل المعركة فقالت الدراسة إنّه إلى جانب القوة الجويّة، قد تحتاج «إسرائيل» إلى جهد بريّ تكميلي، عدواني وسريعٍ، إذْ انّه في المناورات البريّة التي أجراها الجيش الإسرائيليّ في السنوات الأخيرة تمّ اكتشاف ثغرتين رئيسيتين: الأولى، قدرة الردّ على إطلاق الصواريخ من قبل حزب الله، والثانية: مواجهة القذائف على الجبهة الداخليّة «الإسرائيليّة»، وفق الباحث الذي أعّد الدراسة.

واستذكرت الدراسة أنّه في محادثة جرت عشية المناورة الأخيرة في الشمال قال رئيس هيئة الأركان العامّة للجيش «الإسرائيلي» الجنرال أفيف كوخافي: “لا يمكننا تحقيق الانتصار على الأعداء دون مناوراتٍ، وبالتالي استعدّوا لإمكانية اندلاع الحرب غداً”، وفق تعبير القائد العسكريّ في جيش الاحتلال.

وأوضحت الدراسة أيضاً أنّ أعداء «إسرائيل» لن يأخذوا في حساباتهم وباء كورونا، أوْ القيود السياسيّة الأخرى، لذلك يجب على الجيش «الإسرائيلي» أنْ يكون على أهبة الاستعداد للمواجهة القادمة، وأنْ يهتّم بالجنود والضباط الذين خضعوا للحبس المنزليّ بسبب إصابتهم بـ كورونا، لكي يكونوا جاهزين للمعركة المقبلة، وذلك يشمل إشراكهم في جميع التدريبات التي يجريها الجيش استعداداً للحرب المقبلة، لأنّ هذه الخطوة تضمن أهليتهم للمشاركة في الحرب، فضلاً عن زيادة أهمية التدريب في نظرهم.

Mission Accomplished: Hezbollah Drone Flew over Galilee, Returned Safely «السهم الفتّاك» تفشل في رصد طائرة استطلاع المقاومة

 December 3, 2020

Hezbollah drone

Hezbollah drone flew over the occupied territories’ Galilee and returned safely to Lebanon despite high alert among the ranks of the Israeli occupation army last October, a report said on Thursday.

Lebanese Daily Al-Akhbar reported that a Hezbollah drone managed to enter the airspace of occupied Palestine on October 26 as the Israeli occupation army was on high alert and waging the so-called “Lethal Arrow” maneuver.

“The maneuver was accompanied with high activity by the Israeli air force,” the Lebanese daily said.

“One of the maneuver’s goals was to prevent drones from getting into the Palestinian airspace,” Al-Akhbar said, highlighting the paradox.

The drone managed to capture photos and footage of the occupied region of Galilee and then returned to its base in Lebanon safely, the daily revealed.

Al-Manar will broadcast the photos and scenes captured by the drone in the last episode of “The Second Liberation” documentary series.

Source: Al-Manar English Website and Al-Akhbar

“Israel’s Lethal Arrow” Drill Fails to Spot Hezbollah Reconnaissance Plane

“Israel’s Lethal Arrow” Drill Fails to Spot Hezbollah Reconnaissance Plane

By al-Akhbar Newspaper, Translated by Staff

On October 25, the “Israeli” army launched a massive five-day drill dubbed ‘Lethal Arrow’. They were simulating a multi-front war with a special focus on the northern front with Lebanon and Syria. Among the key objectives was the defeat of Hezbollah and to “prevent drones of any type and size from crossing the borders.” 

The exercise was accompanied by an active movement of “Israeli” warplanes and helicopters. 

On the second day of the drill, and at the height of the enemy’s mobilization, Hezbollah reconnaissance aircraft managed to infiltrate the airspace of occupied Palestinian over the Galilee region, before returning to its base in Lebanon without being detected by the “Israeli” army’s radars. 

Al-Akhbar learned that the Al-Manar channel will broadcast images taken by the Lebanese reconnaissance plane. 

The images are set to be aired Friday evening during the final episode of “The Secrets of the 2nd Liberation” series.

«السهم الفتّاك» تفشل في رصد طائرة استطلاع المقاومة

تقرير إيمان بشير 

الخميس 3 كانون الأول 2020

في 25 تشرين الأول الماضي، بدأ جيش العدو الإسرائيلي تنفيذ مناورة ضخمة على مدى خمسة أيام سمّاها «السهم الفتّاك»، حاكت حرباً متعدّدة الجبهات، خصوصاً على «الجبهة الشمالية» مع لبنان وسوريا، وبين أهدافها الرئيسية «هزيمة حزب الله». رافقت المناورة حركة ناشطة للطائرات الحربية والمروحية الإسرائيلية. في اليوم الثاني من المناورة التي كان بين أهدافها أيضاً «منع منظومات طائرات الدرونز من أي نوع وأي حجم من تجاوز الحدود»، وفي ذروة استنفار العدو، تمكنت طائرة استطلاع تابعة للمقاومة من اختراق الأجواء الفلسطينية المحتلة فوق منطقة الجليل، قبل أن تعود إلى قاعدتها في لبنان من دون أن تكتشفها رادارات الجيش الإسرائيلي. وعلمت «الأخبار» أن قناة «المنار» ستبث، في الحلقة الأخيرة من سلسلة «أسرار التحرير الثاني»، مساء غد، مشاهد التقطتها طائرة الاستطلاع اللبنانية.

Terribly Tired, “Israeli” Army Hides under Cloth along Lebanese Border

Terribly Tired, “Israeli” Army Hides under Cloth along Lebanese Border

By Staff

The “Israeli” army appears to have exhausted all camouflage options. It’s now resorted to using mere cloth along the Palestinian-Lebanese border. Settlers in the Metula settlement noticed enemy soldiers extending a large canvas over the border fence. The canvas hosts a painting of the sky and the local landscape.

“Israel’s” Channel 12 website indicated that the surprising move is aimed at camouflaging the fence or hiding the “Israeli” territory behind it. But the settlers there are suspicious.

According to the site, the occupation army recently completed the construction of a new fence in the area, in places where construction of the concrete wall was halted.

“Over the years, the ‘residents’ of Metula have gotten used to Hezbollah placing a kind of large canvas with messages along the fences on the Lebanese side of the frontier, and this is the first time that the ‘Israeli’ army hung similar signs on the fence,” the website stated.

Gil, an “Israeli” student who lives in Metula, told the website that she arrived morning to see the work getting underway and was disappointed when she discovered that this is what is happening in the area.

“It really interferes with the landscape scenery. It is ugly and also unnecessary,” she said.

Another student stated that “in Metula we live in peace with the fence, and we even have the view of Wadi al-Oyoun behind it. Everybody knows that there is a fence, and there is no need to hide it. Whoever believes that this will help prevent a retaliatory operation by Hezbollah, should know that every time I take out the garbage, it will make me laugh.”

The website stated that Zionist officials had previously opposed continuing the construction of a concrete wall in the northern and eastern part of the settlement. In the past, they hung a camouflage net on the fence that helped hide “civilian and military” activities. 

However, following the martyrdom of a Hezbollah fighter in Syria last summer and the party’s threat to retaliate, soldiers were prevented from approaching the area and even set up many checkpoints to prevent the entry of military vehicles and soldiers in uniform until recently when activities returned to normal, and on Wednesday, colorful cloth was hung.

For his part, the spokesman for the occupation army said, “The army placed a new camouflage canvas in the area of the Metula settlement instead of the old camouflage network that was in place, and there is talk about installing a routine infrastructure that serves the army’s activities by taking into account the civilian element.”

Nasrallah: We celebrate Trump’s defeat without illusions about Biden, and we stay ready for war


Date: 23 November 2020

Author: lecridespeuples

Speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Sayed Hassan Nasrallah on November 11, 2020, celebrating Hezbollah’s “Martyrs Day”, which honors all martyrs of the Resistance.

On November 11, 1982, the largest resistance action in the history of the Israeli-Arab struggle took place, when the martyrdom of 19-year-old fighter Ahmad Qassir killed more than 100 occupying Israeli officers and soldiers by detonating their headquarters in the Lebanese city of Tyre. We transcribe below two sections of the speech devoted to the recent Israeli military maneuvers and US elections.

Source: https://video.moqawama.org/details.php?cid=1&linkid=2183

Translation: resistancenews.org

Transcript:

Israeli military maneuvers

[…] The second issue (I want to mention) is the Israeli military maneuvers which took place a few days ago, and lasted from Sunday (1st) to Thursday (November 5). Obviously I will not get into the details of these maneuvers, its stages, its objectives, etc. It would take too long. But I will confine myself to the following points.

Of course, these were massive maneuvers, one of the biggest and most important Israeli maneuvers (in history). They are similar to those that took place in 2017 simultaneously in northern occupied Palestine and in the Golan Heights, which they consider to be a single front: these maneuvers were as large or perhaps a little larger (than those in November 2020). It was pretty much the same (exercise) in both maneuvers (i.e. simulating a Hezbollah attack). Of course, during the maneuvers, there were analyzes, threats and clues (according to which) Israel could take advantage of this (maximum) state of readiness and this enormous concentration of forces in northern occupied Palestine and in the Golan Heights to launch an operation against Lebanon or against Syria, to say the least [there was also talk of a possible attack on Iran]. There were analyzes, assumptions of this kind, and of course, these maneuvers were followed with the greatest attention in Israel, although the Lebanese cared little about them, except for Hezbollah who followed it all closely. The enemy Prime Minister came to visit (the forces engaged in these maneuvers), as did the Minister of Defense, and the Chief of Staff and other officials were there throughout the week, and they made countless statements.

With regard to these maneuvers, I want to make a couple of brief comments.

Israel has moved from permanent aggression to a defensive posture

First, when you consider these maneuvers, what was one of their main purposes? They announced it themselves, I’m not talking about secret information. One of the main objectives is that they simulated an invasion by the forces of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon (Hezbollah) against the Israeli positions and settlements in Galilee, and the purpose of these maneuvers was for the Israeli army to recover these positions and these settlements, meaning to expel the Resistance forces from them, and launch another response in the border region. It is not about invading (Lebanon) and reaching I do not know where, but simply about organizing a (limited) response in the border area, less far than the Israeli security zone of yesteryear [from 1985 to 2000, Israel occupied all of South Lebanon, in a continuous enclave 10 to 20 kilometers wide]. This is what these maneuvers consisted of, and they involved the air force, infantry, artillery, etc.

What I want to emphasize about this, coming back to what the (Hezbollah) martyrs accomplished (by their struggle and their sacrifice), one of the great achievements of the martyrs is (the following): in 2017, Israel organized military maneuvers where, from the first days, it was all about launching defensive measures, setting up a defensive plan to protect its positions and its settlements in Galilee, in the north of occupied Palestine, (against a Hezbollah attack). And again in 2020, Israel is carrying out similar maneuvers, despite the economic situation, the coronavirus, the difficulties, etc. What does all this prove? This proves that the Lebanese Resistance, for the first time (in the history of the Arab-Israeli struggle), has shifted the Israeli army from an offensive to a defensive position. This demonstrates the power of the Resistance. In the old days, if anyone (among the Arab-Muslim rulers) claimed to invade or attack Israel, upset the equations (in force), enter occupied Palestine (as a retaliation in case) Israel invaded our territory, Israel would laugh (at these empty claims) and mock them. You remember that in previous wars Israel behaved as if Lebanon was negligible, and (considered) that a single musical band was enough to defeat it. This Resistance in Lebanon, the martyrs of this Resistance, the mujaheedeen of this Resistance of which “some have reached their end [martyrdom], and others are still waiting [and they have not changed at all (in their commitment)” (Quran, 33, 23)], have brought Lebanon to a stage where the enemy regards us in a very different way. The enemy is obsessed with the idea of ​​an attack from Lebanon, and when he thinks of attacking Lebanon himself, his mind immediately goes to destruction with planes, artillery, missiles, and he does not think of any invasion or occupation of vast territories, because his ambitions on the ground are very limited. And more so, he switched to a defensive way of thinking. This is why he has designed defensive plans to protect his positions, his settlements, the region of Galilee. He keeps rethinking these plans, he has been making maneuvers in this direction since 2017, and in their light, he is making amendments, and he insists on carrying out new maneuvers in 2020. This is a very important point to know the weight of Lebanon, of the Lebanese Resistance and our strength in the calculations of the enemy. It’s something he would never have thought of in the past. And of course, this must lead us to make exact calculations when thinking about the equations of force in Lebanon, whether it is about negotiations over maritime borders or points of contention over the land border, the equation of deterrence, the protection equation, etc.

An admission of failure and unpreparedness

The second point is the enemy’s insistence on carrying out these 2020 maneuvers, and the fact that the enemy army’s Chief of staff has declared that even if 1,000 soldiers must be infected with the Covid- 19, he was determined to hold the maneuvers. This confirms another truth long evoked by Israeli generals after the 2006 war against Lebanon and after the 2014 Gaza war: they themselves say that the Israeli army, the Israeli infantry is suffering from a real and deep crisis. There is a crisis of preparation, a crisis of officers, soldiers and combatants at the personal, psychological, moral level, a crisis of the (fighting) spirit, a crisis of confidence in officers and leaders, problems of discipline, (a lack of willingness to) advance (in the battlefield), to sacrifice oneself, to go to the front line, etc. This is why in all their maneuvers, the Israelis provide soldiers and officers with every guarantee of security, assuring them that nothing will happen to them, and that their advance will be secure [as if there was such a thing as a safe war]. This is the result of the enormous flaws and weaknesses in the spirit and morale of the troops of the IDF ground forces. This is why Israel needs these maneuvers to remedy this situation, to give its soldiers confidence in themselves, to restore their morale, to give them motivation, guarantees, assure them that they are capable (of facing Hezbollah) with their plan and maneuvers. This is a real crisis affecting the Israeli infantry today.

Regarding the navy, we know that its field of action is (very) limited. In 2006, a single missile took the entire Israeli navy out of the war equation, when we hit the Sa’ar 5 (corvette). And in case of war in the future, the Israeli navy will be unable to achieve the slightest real accomplishment. And as for the Air Force, we do not underestimate nor demean it, and we recognize that it is one of the most powerful air forces in the region. And the United States gives Israel (everything) without limit, so that all developments in air capacity are open to the enemy. But this does not constitute a guarantee, it does not protect the Zionist project in the region, it does not even protect (the survival of) the usurping entity. All the recent wars and battles have confirmed that the Air force alone is incapable of shaping victory, from the 2006 war to the wars in Gaza, all the wars that have taken place in our region, as well as the war that is entering its 6th year in Yemen. All of these wars demonstrate that air power alone is incapable of shaping victory or winning a battle. It is the ground forces that are essential and decisive, whether in defense, attack or victory. Today the IDF is going through real crises in this regard, and we must build (and consolidate our strength) on it.

Hezbollah was on high alert during these maneuvers

Last point concerning these maneuvers, and that I wish the Lebanese and the people to know clearly: because of the assumptions, the analyzes and the possibilities (of Israeli attack against Lebanon or Syroa), I want to say, without creating a state of terror in Lebanon, but I must reveal this fact: the Islamic Resistance was, from Saturday (October 31st), that is before the start of the maneuvers, until the days of the maneuvers, and until after the end of the maneuvers, or after Thursday (November 5), until Friday and Saturday, we were on high alert. Some Resistance units in Lebanon were on full alert, 100%, and others were 75% ready. And at the level of organization, management and control, all the commanders were at their posts. Of course, Israel knew this, and we wanted them to know it, because what mattered to us was to clearly send the following message: we are watchful, we are ready, we are on alert, our finger is on the trigger, and if you are thinking of engaging in any stupid act, any aggression, our response will be ready, quick and immediate. In Syria too… And in Lebanon, of course, we did all this for 7 to 8 days without the Lebanese and the Lebanese people, the villages and the towns feeling the slightest thing that could disturb them, worry them or arouse fear. This is one of the strengths of the Popular Resistance, which is precise, level-headed, measured, far from all excesses and bluster, serious, dedicated and sincere.

Likewise, in Syria, according to my information, the readiness measures of the Syrian leadership and the armed forces were maximum, as well as for their allies on the ground. The message to the enemy was clear: in front of you there are people ready and willing to fight, people neither weakened nor ready to surrender, and unaffected by all the events happening in our region. So much for this point.

US elections

My third point is the US elections. I speak quickly to have time to discuss all the issues. The whole world followed… Of course, I will not do an (exhaustive) analysis on the US elections, but I will talk about what concerns us and concerns our people, our region and our Axis (of Resistance). The whole world has been following what happened and what is happening now in the US presidential elections. And that’s something normal, because the outcome of the elections will influence the whole world. I would like to make several comments on this subject.

A paper Empire and a junk Democracy

First, the unfolding of the US elections, the speeches of the candidates and the contradictory and invective election campaigns, the media hype, etc., I consider that more than ever, all of this has shown the (real and eloquent) image of a number of truths and realities in the United States, whether at the level of the political system, of the forces and parties, and of the people. The peoples of the world, the peoples of our region and all of us need to pay attention (and think thouroughly about these realities). Because in the end, these United States are a global calamity. In our eyes, the US are a problem for all the peoples of the world, both for their friends & allies and for their enemies, both at the same time.

My first point is a simple call to look closely at the numbers and data that were provided during the election campaign, to think about them and learn the lessons, in order to know what these United States really are, because there are people who present them to us as the greatest example that our Arab and Muslim countries and Third World countries (in general) should follow. So let’s see what is the truth of this (alleged) most prominent model. (Let us seek) its truth in its values, in its actions, in its habits, in the results of its behavior and practices, (let us seek) the truth of its democracy, the truth of its political system, the truth of the behavior of its authorities with its people, in its different (ethnico-social) components. All these questions require thought on our part, as (staggering) numbers have been given, incredible things have been seen, and (striking) scenes are visible on TV channels and social media, be it everything that has to do with the economic and financial situation, the scale of the debts weighing on the American treasury –we talk a lot about the debts of Lebanon, but look at those of the United States–, the social situation and the standard of living of tens of millions of inhabitants of the United States… We see images on television of very modern cities, with very modern streets, in which we see people living in makeshift camps, left and right, washing themselves in the streets, and having no home, no social security, etc. Either way, these are staggering numbers, whether talking about the number of people infected with the coronavirus [over 11 million], the number of people affected by terminal illnesses –Biden spoke of huge numbers a few days ago–, mental and nervous illnesses, drug addicts, the scale of the various forms of criminality in American society –murders, injuries, incidents, shootings, thefts, rapes, etc. –, the number of prisoners in jails, the extent of corruption in state administration and political officials, etc. This is (the reality of) the United States that some present to us as (a model of) freedom, democracy, justice, development, prosperity, etc., etc., etc. (Not to mention the) fundamental racism that has been brought to light by the events of recent months. All this deserves –I don’t have time to give the figures and talk about them in detail, others will be able to do it, and everyone can find out by consulting the data, the archives, the images, the evidence, etc.; these are not empty statements from an enemy of the United States who would come and make false accusations, they are their own statements, their own figures and their own statistics as to their situation, their worries, their real domestic ills and problems; and this is the priority which may be imposed on the new administration. This is the first thing that appeared during these elections.

Allegations of electoral fraud are a gross heist attempt

The second point is the humiliation of the (so-called) US democracy that Washington calls on the whole world to take as an example, asserting the primacy of people’s decision, of elections, etc. If the US administration itself, which today is President Trump’s and also his entire administration –because we cannot say that he has an (unprecedented) state of mind, that he is mad, resolved to keep his throne, etc.: the entire Republican Party (supports him). If two (Republicans) Senators congratulated Biden, (it should be noted that) it is the whole Republican Party, officially, all its leaders and executives, all its echelons who support the electoral battle that Trump is pursuing, and who do not recognize the results. What is this (pseudo-)democracy? I remind you of one thing: as (was stated by) all the people who followed (these elections), the special media envoys, even those from the channels close to Trump, during these elections, some citizens voted by mail, some voted early –as did Trump himself– and finally some voted (in person) on election day. When (the vote-counting agents) begin their tally, they count first the votes cast on election day, then the early votes, and finally the mail votes. It is common knowledge that the majority of mail votes are in favor of the Democrats. For early votes, it’s mixed. For direct votes on election day, the majority is in favor of the Republicans. As soon as the vote count of election day ballots ended, Trump rose up and exclaimed, “Stop the vote count! Stop the vote count!” Why? Because he considered himself the winner, hands down, which is natural when only the votes cast on election day are counted. But when you count the 70 million –if not more– early votes, and the mail votes, that will certainly change the outcome. He therefore wants to throw the voices of tens of millions of citizens into oblivion in order to be able to declare “I am the winner, period”. And he has declared himself the winner, and does not acknowledge the results, considering that all that is happening is just a (large) fraud. And the (whole) Republican Party stands behind all this. It would be wrong to say that it is only the action of one person, of a fool, feverish, nervous man, etc., no! And now we don’t know where the Trump administration and the Republican Party want to take all of the United States if they maintain this line. (Let’s keep all this farce in mind) so that no one comes (berating us) with (the alleged virtues of) Western democracy or American democracy, nor present the US as a Master in matters of elections and respect for the vote of the people and the will of the people, neither inside the United States, nor outside.

Israel will always be the main concern of any US administration

Third, what matters to us today about the new administration –I will speak later about the two remaining months of this Trump administration, along with (our) psychological and emotional reaction (to Trump’s defeat)–, (about) the larger question of the new administration (which will take power in January 2021), (it must be emphasized that) in our region in particular –because what can be predicted for other peoples of the world, other states and governments, it is their own assessment to make–, but as far as we are concerned, our greatest calamity is that in our region, for a long time, and for decades, US policies in our region are an Israeli policy. The basis (of thought and action) is Israel, (and all that matters is how to ensure) the strength of Israel, the empowerment of Israel, the security of Israel, the superiority of Israel. It is one of the constants of US policy, whether it is Democrats or Republicans, Bush, Clinton, Obama, Trump or Biden: whoever (the US President) is, they all rush and compete to see who supports Israel the most, who covers Israel the most, who defends Israel the most, who protects Israel the most, who strengthens Israel the most, who supports Israel the most.

Therefore, as far as we are concerned, things are not going to change. Maybe their policy towards Russia, China, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela or whatever will change. But here, in our region, for everything that has to do with the usurping entity of occupied Palestine, and for the whole area that includes Iran, Iraq, Syria, the Gulf, Yemen, North Africa, this whole Arab-Islamic region, as far as the United States are concerned, the only fundamental constant, or at least the main one if it is not the only one, is Israel and the domination of Israel. Therefore, building promising hopes in fundamental and strategic changes (in the policies of a Biden administration is futile): let no one be deluded or lie to himself, nor anything like that.

It is true that on certain details (we can expect some minor changes)… For example, I absolutely do not consider as likely the hypothesis that the Biden administration backtracks on the recognition (of all) of Al-Quds (Jerusalem) as an integral part of the Zionist entity and the eternal capital of Israel, or moves the US embassy in Al-Quds back to Tel Aviv, or no longer recognizes the Golan as Israeli territory… (All of these Trump steps won’t be reversed). But it is possible that concerning the settlements, the West Bank, the question of the two states and their borders, these are details (on which a margin of maneuver is possible). But even in these details, the core principle and top priority will remain how to make Israel as strong as possible, as dominant as possible, superior to all, etc. So let’s not waste time counting on the new (Biden) administration, imagining various prospects (of a new US foreign policy in the Middle East), and luring ourselves into dreams and illusions.

Axis of Resistance welcomes Trump’s humiliating defeat

Of course, emotionally, there’s no doubt –and I’m talking about my personal feelings here– that when you look at the Trump administration, the Trump government, it turns out to be the worst government (in US history), or, if not the worst, it is one of the worst US governments in history. This government was the most heinous, the vilest, the most despotic, the most arrogant, the most contemptuous of its friends and allies –for example, there was a difference in the way Trump behaved with Saudi Arabia [repeated humiliations], and his way of addressing Iran: when he addressed Iran, he was more balanced, more measured, more cautious; and he will step down from power with bitterness over not having been able to find a single Iranian official to answer him on the phone. It was the most tyrannical, the most despotic, the most arrogant, the most criminal, the most terrorist government… Such was the Trump administration.

Let’s remember what he did for 4 years. For 4 years, he put the whole world on the brink of war, whether he (deliberately) played on the level of psychological warfare, (on the permanent threat) of the brink of the abyss, or whether he was serious (and willing to go to war). Against North Korea, he brought things to the brink of war. Likewise with China, with Iran, with Venezuela, with Cuba, with Syria, with many places in the world. He brought the whole world to the brink of war! As far as states and peoples are concerned, he has intensified blockades, acts of manifest aggression and the most explicit interference in internal affairs… Of course, we recognize in Trump a very important quality, which is that he showed the true face of the United States. This is their true face. Arrogance, tyranny, (permanent) aggression, despotism, imperialism, terrorism, bestiality, crime, (mass) murder, corruption… This is what Trump showed. His predecessors wore make-up and measured their words, but his quality is that he showed the US as they were to the peoples of the world, (without wearing a mask or using false rhetoric).

Therefore, when one sees the long list of his crimes, such as, in Palestine, the attribution of Al-Quds (Jerusalem) to Israel as its eternal capital, the relocation of the US embassy (from Tel Aviv to Al -Quds), the granting of the (Syrian occupied) Golan (to Israel), as well as the Shebaa farms (occupied Lebanese territory granted to Israel by Trump), the strangulation he exerted against the Palestinians, whether the Palestinian Authority, the PLO, the Palestinian people… But despite that, Trump was defeated, and I will come back to it. In Iran, he imposed the most severe sanctions against a country of 80 or 85 million people, the year of the coronavirus, not to mention the (constant) threats of war, and (a permanent flirtation) with the edge of the abyss! Likewise in Syria, constant threats of war, and Caesar sanctions and more blockades. Open support for the Saudi-Emirati war against Yemen and the oppressed people of Yemen. He has revived sedition in Iraq, and is attempting to revive sedition in Lebanon. He tried to overthrow the state of Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, etc. (He has spread blood and chaos) everywhere, to the point that it is (almost impossible) to count his crimes!

Trump’s foreign policy is a monumental failure

But of course, if we are to give a title to all of these actions, it is failure. He failed in all these attempts! He failed to break the will of the Palestinian people, and that is why today no one talks about the Deal of the Century anymore. Where did it go? In the past, when the Deal of the Century was taking shape, I said it was based on 3 pillars: 1. Trump, 2. Netanyahu and 3. (Saudi Crown Prince) Bin Salman. Today, with the grace of God, Trump will go. Either he will leave or he will take the United States in his downfall if he does not recognize the results. The 2nd pillar, Netanyahu, is now in a worse situation than ever. Even with Trump’s presence, he was at the lowest point in his entire political history, and he’s doing even worse now. The same goes for Bin Salman, who is perhaps the most worried of all among the leaders of the region. Who knows if Biden will live up to his election promises to punish Bin Salman and indict him for Khashoggi’s murder and (gruesome) dismemberment with a saw, end US support for the Saudi war in Yemen and stop selling him weapons… If Biden keeps his election promises, Mohammad Bin Salman has every reason to be very worried. So there is a defeated pillar, which will leave the scene (Trump), and two shaken pillars, ready to collapse (Netanyahu and Bin Salman). The likelihood of fall is greatest for Netanyahu, because the political system of the usurping entity (racialist democracy) is different from that of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (absolute monarchy). And this Deal of the Century will disappear with its pillars. The will of the Palestinian people has not been broken despite all the difficulties, the state of siege, the punishments, the suffering. Iran’s will has not been broken, despite the harshest sanctions (in history) and the harsh conditions caused by the coronavirus. Syria’s will has not been broken. The Iraqis are struggling to defeat the daily sedition that is manufactured at home [via US attempts to revive ISIS, etc.]. In Lebanon, we have defeated sedition. I will speak (in more detail) about Lebanon in the last part (of my speech). In Venezuela, (Trump) failed, he failed in Cuba, he failed in North Korea, he failed to subdue China, and he failed, failed and failed (everywhere). Overall, the headline (of Trump’s foreign policy) is (universal) failure.

In the Middle East, no one will regret the assassin of Qassem Soleimani

That’s why I’ll draw two conclusions from this (short) presentation. The first conclusion is that yes, on a personal level, I am happy with the departure, the fall, the humiliating fall of Trump. We don’t care about the new administration, they are all the same, (US foreign policy) will not change. But we have every reason to be happy (about Trump’s defeat), especially given the crime that I left last in the (long list) of his crimes, the (biggest) crime of our time that Trump committed by assassinating the Grand General Hajj Qassem Soleimani, and the Grand General Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, his (multiple) assaults against Iraq and Iran, and the fact that he publicly bragged about this crime. Even during his election campaign I was following (his speeches), on several occasions he pointed out (with pride) to this heinous crime he committed. Therefore, on an emotional level, we have every reason –no one can stop anyone (from rejoicing)– to rejoice in this humiliating defeat of Trump, inflicted by his own people. We don’t pretend we brought him down. It was his (own) people who brought him down. This (American) people whom Trump also demeaned and humiliated, as he strove to humiliate his allies and friends, and continued his aggression against peoples around the world. So much for the emotional level.

Trump demonstrated the weakness of the United States

But at a practical level, we need to know, through our assessment of these four years (of Trump’s rule), that under such an aggressive (US) government, having such a high level of tyranny and willingness to enter into war… Because it is obvious that the possibility of the Trump administration going to war was higher and will remain higher than that of the next administration. This administration was very inclined to go to war. They had no caution, no limits. Despite this, our peoples and the Axis of Resistance have persisted in their determination (to resist), and have succeeded in thwarting (Trump’s plans), and in preventing this project from materializing and achieving (its goals). It means that our will is stronger than their tyranny, stronger than their blockade, stronger than their arrogance. This means that (despite everything) Trump or his government can say, or (even) the government to come, the USA are not a manifest destiny, and the peoples of the world, the governments of the world and the oppressed of the world can stand up and say “No!” (to Washington’s diktats), (and successfully resist) whatever the consequences. And in the end, it is (the peoples of the world) who are victorious. And as for him (Trump) who fought them, assaulted them, and lashed out at them, it is he who will be defeated, humiliated and broken. This must also be one of the lessons of these elections.

Anything can happen in the last two months of the Trump administration

The last thing I want to say about the election concerns what’s left of the last two months (of the Trump administration). Because it has been said in the media that top Pentagon officials have expressed their fears (of a war before Trump’s term ends), as has the Speaker of the House of Representatives (Nancy Pelosi), and other US officials in the region. Many said that by sacking his Secretary of State for Defense (Mark Esper), replacing him with another (Christopher C. Miller), who became Acting Secretary of State for Defense, he was preparing to do something for the past two months. But what? This is a big question that torments the whole world. I don’t know what he can do in those two months, but anything is possible. With someone like Trump, you have to expect anything. It may be that this sacking was just an impulsive act due to his injured ego, because he figured that Secretary of State Esper was not always docile, that he was opposed to certain things that Trump wanted to do and had prepared his resignation letter, and therefore Trump ate Esper at lunch before Esper ate Trump at dinner. It is entirely possible, it would not be surprising (on the part of a narcisstic buffoon like Trump).

But it is also possible that this move has to do with major and dangerous decisions Trump is about to make. Among these major and dangerous decisions, the whole world immediately thought of the possibility of action outside the United States. Because there are two hypotheses. Either he sacked Esper because last time, when there were (massive) demonstrations (in the United States), and Trump wanted to send the army to suppress the demonstrators, this Secretary of State threatened to resign as far as I can remember, or at least he was opposed to the intervention of the army, I am sure he was against it. I heard he threatened to quit. And maybe Trump saw that one of the reasons for his defeat was that he couldn’t put an end to (these protests) once and for all in recent months, due to (the expectation of dangerous) internal repercussions (if the army had intervened). And it is well known that the main reasons for Trump’s downfall are domestic reasons. Maybe Trump blames Esper for his defeat, and takes revenge on him by punishing him like that. But on the other hand, Esper’s sacking may have been due to Trump’s willingness to use US armed forces inside the US (to stay in power), it’s a possible hypothesis. And the other assumption is (that Trump is going to make a major and dangerous decision) outside the United States: the Republican Party, the far right and their ally Israel (may be thinking) that they should do now something important in the Middle East that they haven’t been able to do in these 4 years, and that they want to catch up in the last two months. This is also a possibility. I have no preference (to favor either of these hypotheses), it takes analysis and these are new things that have just come out, but there may be nothing (serious behind it all), it may be a domestic matter and it may be that something (big) is brewing outside (and the main assumption would be an attack against Iran). Everything is possible.

See the New York Times on November 16th: Trump Sought Options for Attacking Iran

Resistance Axis remains on high alert, ready for any US-Israeli war

Within the Resistance Axis, states, governments, rulers, Presidents, Resistance factions, and Resistance Axis peoples, to say the least, because we are part of it, I call them all to vigilance, to be wakeful, to be careful. In everything we say, in everything we do, in everything we follow (closely), we must be attentive and watchful, take our precautions (and prepare for anything), because that is what wisdom and reason require from us. We must imagine the worst, even if nothing should happen, and be prepared to face it. We must be on high alert during these two months, hoping that with the grace of God they will end well. We must also stand at a high level of preparedness, ready to face any danger, any aggression, any harm, and pay back blow for blow and even more if the imbecility of the United States or Israel goes as far as something like that (a military attack). […]

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مناورة الجبهة الشماليّة: قوات الرضوان في الجليل… وآلاف الصواريخ في سماء فلسطين

الأخبار

علي حيدر 

الثلاثاء 3 تشرين الثاني 2020

مناورة الجبهة الشماليّة: قوات الرضوان في الجليل... وآلاف الصواريخ في سماء فلسطين
(أ ف ب )

قد يكون إجراء المناورات الكبرى للجيوش، بما فيها جيش العدو الإسرائيلي، جزءاً من برنامج روتيني. إلا أن هناك أكثر من عامل مستجد داخلي وإقليمي يؤكد أن إجراء مناورة «السهم القاتل» الكبرى، الأسبوع الفائت، في شمال فلسطين المحتلة، وفي ضوء السيناريو الذي انطلقت منه، ينطوي على أبعاد ورسائل مُحدَّدة تتصل بأكثر من سياق داخلي وإقليمي أيضاً. فما هي السياقات التي أملت على قيادة العدو إجراء مناورة كبرى، تحاكي نشوب حرب متعددة الساحات، وترتكز على مواجهة حزب الله والجبهة الشمالية؟ وما هي الرسائل الكامنة في تبنّي الجيش سيناريو مواجهة قوات الرضوان التابعة لحزب الله، على أرض فلسطين، ومواجهة آلاف الصواريخ التي تتساقط عليها من عدة جبهات ودول في الوقت نفسه؟

المؤشر الأول إزاء خلفية إجراء المناورة يكمن في ما نقلته صحيفة «يديعوت أحرونوت» عن رئيس أركان الجيش أفيف كوخافي، الذي أعلن في مداولات داخلية أنه ينبغي إجراء المناورة، حتى لو كانت ستؤدي الى إصابة 1000 جندي بوباء الكورونا. وبرر موقفه بالقول لأنه «لا خيار بديل».

المسلّم به أن مناورة بهذا الحجم ووفق السيناريو الذي انطلقت منه، وفي ظل ما تشهده «إسرائيل» والمنطقة، من انتشار الوباء، هي بالتأكيد نتيجة تقدير وضع أجرته القيادة العسكرية. وخلصت في ضوئه الى بلورة قرار المناورة التي كان بالإمكان نظرياً تأخيرها عدة أشهر، وخاصة أن آخر مناورة مشابهة كانت قبل أكثر من سنتين. يعني ذلك، أنها نتاج مخاوف تهيمن على مؤسسة القرار السياسي في تل أبيب من سيناريوات قد تكون المنطقة مقبلة عليها، والمطلوب إزاءها رفع مستوى الاستعداد لأشدّها خطورة بالنسبة إلى «إسرائيل»، وخاصة أن من المهام التقليدية للمؤسسة العسكرية الإعداد لتوسيع نطاق الخيارات أمام القيادة السياسية.

منشأ تقدير المخاطر الكامنة في تطورات البيئة الإقليمية، على «الأمن القومي الإسرائيلي» في هذه المرحلة، يتجسد في فشل الرهان على مفاعيل العقوبات الأميركية التي كان ينبغي أن تؤدي، بحسب تقدير معهد أبحاث الأمن القومي لعام 2020، الى انتفاضة الشعب الإيراني، أو حرب أميركية تسقط نظام الجمهورية الإسلامية، أو خضوعه عبر الجلوس الى طاولة المفاوضات وفق الشروط الأميركية. إلا أن أياً من هذه السيناريوات لم يتحقق. بل ولم تؤدّ أيضاً الى تراجع الدعم العسكري الذي تقدمه لحزب الله ولبقيّة قوى المقاومة في المنطقة، وصولاً الى الامتناع عن إظهار أي مرونة تجاه القضايا الأساسية في المنطقة.
فشل الرهان على العقوبات يُعدّ استراتيجياً. وهو وضع «إسرائيل» وبقية حلفاء الولايات المتحدة أمام مسارات كانت مستبعدة جداً قبل أكثر من سنتين. وفرض عليهم البحث عن خيارات بديلة إضافية لاحتواء المسار التصاعدي لقدرات محور المقاومة، بالرغم من الهجوم الأميركي الذي لا يزال متواصلاً، بدءاً من إيران، مروراً بالعراق وسوريا، وصولاً الى لبنان.
بالموازاة، تبدّد الرهان الإسرائيلي أيضاً على المسار الذي انطلق في لبنان منذ 17 تشرين الأول من العام الماضي. إذ رأت فيه تل أبيب ــــ بصرف النظر عن المطالب المحقة التي رفعها مشاركون فيه ــــ فرصة مثالية لتحقيق مستويين من النتائج: عزل حزب الله سياسياً وحكومياً، وتجريد الحزب من جمهوره، وفرض قيود على خياراته وعلى تطور قدراته.

في المقابل، عمد حزب الله في ظل تفاقم الوضعين المالي والاقتصادي الى إظهار التصميم على تثبيت معادلة الردع التي تحمي لبنان والمقاومة من التهديد الإسرائيلي. وتجلّى ذلك، في تصميمه على الرد على استشهاد أحد مقاوميه في محيط مطار دمشق الدولي قبل أكثر من 100 يوم. وما يُضفي على هذا التصميم أهمية استثنائية في هذه المرحلة تحديداً، أن السياق الداخلي اللبناني يُمثِّل في المنظور الإسرائيلي فرصة يمكن الرهان عليها من أجل فرض قيود على حزب الله لدى دراسة خيارات الرد على اعتداءات إسرائيلية محددة، وهو ما يغري مؤسسة القرار في تل أبيب لتوسيع نطاق الاعتداءات التي تشنها في سوريا الى لبنان، والتأسيس أيضاً لتغيير المعادلة الداخلية في لبنان.

ليس أمراً عابراً أن تنطلق المناورة من سيناريو اقتحام قوات الرضوان (قوات النخبة في المقاومة) منطقة الجليل في شمال فلسطين المحتلة. وأن تكون مهمة الجيش الأولى صدّ هذا الاقتحام، ومن ثم الانتقال الى مرحلة المبادرة ــــ الرد، كما كشف الجيش عن ذلك، ونقلته التقارير الإعلامية الإسرائيلية. وكذلك التدرب على مواجهة سيناريو التعرض «لأسراب من الصواريخ الجوالة والطائرات المسيّرة الإيرانية التي هاجمتنا من سوريا ومن لبنان ومن دولتين» أخريين، يبدو أنهما العراق واليمن، بحسب ما أشارت الى ذلك تقارير أخرى. واستناداً الى سوابق يخشى العدو تكرارها بنسخ أشد خطورة، تبنى جيش الاحتلال أيضاً سيناريو تعرّض «إسرائيل» لهجوم صاروخي «مشابه للهجوم الذي تعرّضت له منشآت أرامكو في السعودية، لكن مضروباً بألف». بمعنى أن تتعرض «إسرائيل»، بحسب ما أكد المعلق العسكري في القناة «13»، ألون بن ديفيد، الى «آلاف الصواريخ الجوالة والطائرات المسيرة».

سيناريو المناورة يكشف أيضاً الدور الردعي الذي نجحت المقاومة في تحقيقه


تعني هذه السيناريوات العملانية، التي شكلت منطلق العدو في المناورة، أنها مبنية على فرضية تدحرج التطورات في المنطقة نحو السيناريو الأخطر. وهو ما يعيدنا الى إقرار قيادة العدو بفشل رهاناته، بدءاً من إيران، وصولاً الى لبنان. ويكشف سيناريو المناورة في هذه المرحلة بالذات عمق حضور خيار حزب الله باقتحام منطقة الجليل، لدى القيادتين السياسية والعسكرية. وأن حزب الله لا يزال يملك التصميم والقدرة على تنفيذ ذلك، وأن ما يشهده لبنان من تطورات داخلية لم ينجح في تبديد هذه المخاطر، إذا ما بادرت «إسرائيل» إلى ما يرى حزب الله أنه ينبغي الرد عليه بهذا المستوى.


الأهم في هذا السياق، هو أن سيناريو المناورة يكشف أيضاً الدور الردعي الذي نجحت المقاومة في تحقيقه، وأبرز تجلّياته حضوره لدى قيادة العدو التي ستضطر الى أن تأخذه بالحسبان لدى دراسة خياراتها العدوانية. وهو ما ساهم في تعزيز قوة ردع المقاومة في لبنان، في مواجهة بعض الخيارات التي يبدو أنها راودت قادة العدو في المرحلة السابقة. والقدر المتيقن أيضاً، أنه سيساهم أيضاً في كبح تدحرج أي مواجهة نحو الحرب، على فرض حصول مواجهة عسكرية ما.

على نفس الإيقاع، يحضر أيضاً سيناريو اتساع نطاق المواجهة العسكرية، الى حرب واسعة في المنطقة تتعرض بموجبها «إسرائيل» لآلاف الصواريخ الجوالة والدقيقة والطائرات المسيّرة عن بُعد. ويكشف ذلك أيضاً عن الدور الردعي الإقليمي لتحالف محور المقاومة، في مواجهة حرب أميركية ــــ إسرائيلية، في المنطقة، ابتداءً أو تدحرجاً. وبرزت تجلّيات ذلك في أكثر من محطة إقليمية. وبموجب ذلك، يتّضح ــــ وهو الأهم ــــ أن سيناريو «أسراب» الصواريخ الجوالة والدقيقة و«المسيَّرات»، يحفر عميقاً في وعي صناع القرار في تل أبيب.

تبقى مسألة ينبغي أن تبقى حاضرة لدى تقدير أي مستجدات تبدو لوهلة أنها تشكل فرصة ودافعاً للعدو، للمبادرة إلى خيارات عدوانية تهدف الى تغيير المعادلة المحلية (اللبنانية) والإقليمية بشكل جذري، وهي أن هناك مستجداً كان ولا يزال في مسار تصاعدي، وهو تغيّر معادلات القوة (بالمفهوم الواسع) بشكل جذري. وما السيناريوات التي انطلقت منها المناورة إلا أحد تجلّيات الإقرار بذلك. وشكّل هذا المتغيّر في معادلات القوة علامة لاغية إزاء بعض الخيارات، وعاملاً مُقيِّدا إزاء خيارات أخرى.

Israeli Army Drills Infantry Troops to Confront Hezbollah

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The Israeli army carried out major annual drills, named the “Lethal Arrow’ in simulation of a military confrontation with Hezbollah.

The Chief of Staff Aviv Kovhavi insisted on conducting the drills despite the coronavirus threat, considering that the Zionist army must be able to defeat Hezbollah in a very short time to prevent it from expand its missile fire.

The infantry troops must undergo the military training to be able to cause a massive destruction in Lebanon during the war in order to defeat Hezbollah, according to Kochavi.

According to the Zionist media, Kochavi intended to boost the army’s morale in light of the report issued by the military ombudsman, Isaac Brick, who confirmed that the Israeli forces are unable to face Hezbollah.

The enemy’s defense minister, Benny Gantz, inspected the military maneuvers, highlighting the threats which endanger the occupation entity on the northern and the southern fronts.

Gantz viewed positively the Lebanese voices which are pleading ‘peace’ with ‘Israel’, saying that Lebanon will pay the price of any attack launched by Hezbollah on the occupation entity.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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How Will Terrified “Israel” Avoid another Hezbollah in Syria?

How Will Terrified “Israel” Avoid another Hezbollah in Syria?

By Jihad Haidar, Al-Ahed News

Lebanon – The Hezbollah model in Lebanon terrifies “Israeli” leaders. These fears aren’t confined to Lebanon but include anxiety over a possible regional expansion. This concept doesn’t stem from a marginal commentator in the “Israeli” media. It doesn’t come from a figure who wanted to outbid Netanyahu, or from an obscure expert who wanted the spotlight.

Rather, it was issued by the head of the Military Intelligence Directorate’s Research Division [Aman], Brigadier General Dror Shalom, in two consecutive interviews.

The first interview was with the Yedioth Ahronot newspaper and the second with the Saudi website, Elaph. Shalom made clear that “Israel’s” goal was to prevent a second Hezbollah in Syria.

However, this was originally articulated over a year ago by the head of the political hierarchy, Benjamin Netanyahu, who clearly declared on the anniversary of the 2006 war that “Israel” would not allow “a second Lebanon in Syria.”

What does this mean exactly at a time like this? What messages regarding the previous stage and the reality in the region does it carry? And what are the indicators involved in the equation of the conflict with “Israel”?

Raising this slogan reveals the enemy’s priority at this stage of the conflict, both at the political and security levels. It outlines the objectives of the steps that are being pursued by Tel Aviv’s allies in the region. It also affirms that the top concern of the “Israeli” entity’s national security institutions is preventing the replication of the Hezbollah model in any regional arena, and of course, an attempt to depose this model in Lebanon.

This slogan, which carries many messages, did not materialize until an assessment of the situation in which the enemy’s leaders concluded that the regional threat posed by Hezbollah to “Israel’s” future imposes on them the urgency to prevent the recreation of the Hezbollah model.

It comes 14 years after the last direct military confrontation was launched by the “Israeli” army to eliminate Hezbollah. This confirms the extent of the defeat it suffered during the war and the subsequent stages that the region went through.

This slogan also reveals the magnitude of the deterrent force that Hezbollah was able to impose on the “Israeli” entity. Hezbollah succeeded in engraving into the conciseness of the political and security decision-makers that any aggressive initiative will be met with a response that will give them two options: Either deterrence or a rolling response towards a broad military confrontation.

It is clear that this vision has kept pace with the enemy’s decision-making establishment in recent years in which Hezbollah has succeeded in accumulating and developing its capabilities.

This slogan is an acknowledgment of the failure of all options and bets that defined policy throughout the last decade. Tel Aviv had hoped to remove the threat posed by Hezbollah without paying the price it knew it might not be able to withstand. But it found itself confronted by Hezbollah. What is new is that Hezbollah’s model of resistance, with all its tactics of response, defense, and deterrence has become a regional model.

Thus, Shalom and Netanyahu’s announcements represent a tacet admission that Hezbollah was a useful and effective model in confronting an entity the size of “Israel”, and that the entity’s concern is now to besiege this model and prevent its recurrence.

In the same context, the positions of the enemy’s leaders also reveal the truth about the objective behind “Israel’s” continuous attacks on the Syrian arena. This means that it aims to prevent the building up and development of Syrian capabilities, based on its experience in Lebanon.

Nevertheless, the “Israeli” leadership’s reactions to the Hezbollah model reveal their deep awareness that it represents a viable alternative for the peoples of the region in facing the threat posed by “Israel”.

The danger posed by this alternative is that it destroys one of the most important pretexts that are falsely marketed to justify normalization with the “Israeli” entity, as the balance of international and regional powers dictates acceptance of facts.

The fact is that the resistance movement in the smallest Arab country surrounding Palestine succeeded in imposing its will on the occupier in both liberation and deterrence.

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