SAUDI-INITIATED ALL-OUT OIL WAR COULD LEAD TO COLLAPSE OF KINGDOM ITSELF

Saudi Arabia launched an all-out oil war offering unprecedented discounts and flooding the market in an attempt to capture a larger share and defeat other oil producers. This scorched earth approach caused the biggest oil price fall since the war in the Persian Gulf in 1991. On March 9, Brent crude plunged over 28.5% to $32 per barrel, while WTI fell 31.5% to $28.27 a barrel. The crisis erupted as the economic fallout from the coronavirus hysteria continued to reverberate throughout the financial markets.

It all began on March 8 when Riyadh cut its April pricing for crude sales to Asia by $4-$6 a barrel and to the U.S. by $7 a barrel. The Kingdom expanded the discount for its flagship Arab Light crude to refiners in northwest Europe by $8 a barrel offering it at $10.25 a barrel under the Brent benchmark. In comparison, Russia’s Urals crude trades at a discount of about $2 a barrel under Brent. These actions became an attack at the ability of Russia to sell crude in Europe. The Russian ruble immediately plummeted almost 10% falling to its lowest level in more than four years.

Another side that suffered from Saudi actions is Iran. The Islamic country is facing a strong US sanction pressure and often selling its oil via complex schemes and with notable discounts already.

Saudi Arabia is planning to increase its output above 10 million barrel per day. Currently, it pumps 9.7 million barrels per day, but has the capacity to ramp up to 12.5 million barrels per day. According to OPEC and Saudi sources of The Wall Street Journal, Riyadh’s actions are part of an “aggressive campaign” against Moscow.

The formal pretext of this campaign became the inability of the OPEC+ (a meeting of representatives of member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC members) to extend output agreements.

Saudi Arabia was seeking up to 1.5 million b/d in further oil production cuts, but this proposal was rejected by Russia. Despite the inability to reach the new OPEC+ deal, Saudi Arabia became the only power that took aggressive actions on the market. However, it is hard to imagine that Saudi Arabia would go for such an escalation without at least an order or approval from Washington.

This came amid the detention of two senior members of the Saudi royal family – Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the younger brother of King Salman, and Mohammed bin Nayef, the king’s nephew – on March 7. This development took place just ahead of the Saudi offensive on the oil market, and was likely a tip of the ongoing undercover struggle between the pro-US and pro-national factions of the Saudi elites; and the pro-US bloc seems to have the upper hand in this conflict.

In this case, the real goal of the Saudi campaign is not only to secure larger share of the oil market and punish Moscow for its unwillingness to accept the proposed OPEC+ deal, but to deliver a powerful blow to Washington’s geopolitical opponents: Russia and Iran. Pro-Western and anti-government forces existing in both Russia and Iran would try to exploit this situation to destabilize the internal situation in the countries.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia may soon find out that its actions have backfired. Such economic and geopolitical games amid the acute conflict with Iran, military setbacks in Yemen and the increasing regional standoff with the UAE could cost too much for the Kingdom itself.

If the oil prices fall any further and reach $20 per barrel, this will lead to unacceptable economic losses for Russia and Iran, and they could and will likely opt to use nonmarket tools of influencing the Saudi behavior. These options include the increasing support to Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah) with intelligence, weapons, money, and even military advisers, and the resumption of strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure (by the hands of the Houthis for sure).

On top of these, the Saudi leadership may suddenly find that the internal situation in the Kingdom is being worsened by large-scale protests rapidly turning into an open civil conflict.

Such a scenario is no secret for international financial analysts. On March 8, shares of Saudi state oil company Aramco slumped below their initial public offering (IPO) and closed 9.1% lower. On March 9, it continued the fall plunging another 10%.  There appears to be a lack of buyers. The risks are too obvious.

At the same time, the range of possible US actions in support of Saudi Arabia in the event of such an escalation is limited by the ongoing presidential campaign. Earlier, President Donald Trump demonstrated that a US military base could become a target of direct missile strike and Washington will not order a direct military action in response. Taking into account other examples of the US current approach towards non-Israeli allies, Riyadh should not expect any real support from its American allies in this standoff.

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هل للهدوء الروسي ـ الصيني في أزمة الخليج مبرّراته؟

سبتمبر 23, 2019

د. وفيق إبراهيم

يعرف الروس والصينيّون أن التصعيد الأميركي الحربي المدروس في الخليج، هو محاولة أخيرة لإعادة السيطرة على الشرق الأوسط من بوابة تفجير إيران.

فمثل هذا الهدف يدفع إلى إعادة الإمساك الأميركية بالمنطقة من اليمن الى سورية ولبنان مروراً بالعراق معززاً الإطباق الأميركي على أفغانستان والسودان ومصر ومتنعّماً بعائدات النفط والغاز في الخليج، وأنحاء أخرى لم تبدأ بالاستثمار.

بما يعني إنعاش الأحادية الأميركية، مما تعانيه من قصور بنيوي في وظائفها، بضخ إمكانات جديدة، تكبح الهرولة السريعة لنظام تعدد الأقطاب، كبديل للاستحواذ الأميركي المتفرد على العالم.

هذه الأهداف الأميركية شديدة الوضوح ولا يختلف عليها أحد، لكن العجيب فيها موجود في حركة المتضررين منها، خصوصاً من بين القوى العالمية التي اصبحت داخل نظام ادارة العالم وسط إصرار أميركي على طردها منه، وذلك بالعودة الى الإمساك الكامل بالشرق الاوسط.

لماذا للشرق الاوسط هذه الأهمية عند الدول التي تقود العالم؟

اصبح هذا السؤال مستنزفاً والإجابة عنه مستهلكة، لأن هذه المنطقة تجمع بين قدرات اقتصادية هائلة على مستوى ثروات الطاقة من نفط وغاز وشمس، ولا تنتج شيئاً.

ما يجعلها مباحة لكل أنواع السلع الغربية، وهي استراتيجياً قلب العالم الذي يبيح للقوى الخارجية المتسلطة عليها، التموضع فيها لمراقبة القارات المحيطة بتموضع جغرافي فريد، ويكفي أيضاً انها على تماس مباشر مع أفريقيا وأوروبا وتطل على جنوب شرق آسيا.

هناك نقاط إضافية تجسّد القوة الروحية للمنطقة التي تمسك بجغرافية الإسلام وبعض أركانه في الحجّ وخلافه حتى تسيطر على مشاعر مليار و500 مليون مسلم ينتشرون في معظم القارات، ولها تأثير عند المسيحيين لارتباطهم بالقدس ومدن المسيح في فلسطين.

أما الإضافة الأساسية فترتبط بعدم وجود دول متماسكة في الشرق الأوسط، بل سلطات قبلية، وطائفية وجهوية لا تسمح بنشوء انصهار اجتماعي هو اللبنة الأولى للدول المعاصرة. وهذا ما يبقيها ضعيفة تحتاج الى الحماة الخارجية.

لقد جذبت هذه العناصر الأميركيين وارثي النفوذ التاريخي البريطاني ـ الفرنسي والذين أمسكوا بالمنطقة بعد معاهدة كمب ـ دايفيد بين مصر و إسرائيل 1979 وباستثناء سورية وإيران، سقط الشرق الأوسط بكامله في النفوذ الأميركي. هذا النفوذ الذي كاد يلتهم روسيا نفسها بعد انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي 1989 فارضاً على الصين الانكفاء الأيديولوجي مقابل التمدّد الاقتصادي.

إلا أن هذين الاستثناءين في إيران وسورية لعبا دوراً كبيراً في التصدّي للنفوذ الأميركي على الرغم من الدعم الأميركي الكبير للإرهاب في سورية وتغطيته للاحتلال التركي والتورط الأردني الخليجي، والكردي مع الدخول العسكري المباشر لقواته.

أما إيران، فيحاربها الأميركي منذ 1980 باقسى أنواع الحروب مع العراق 1980 لمدة ثماني سنوات 1988 والحصار الاقتصادي والعقوبات المتصاعدة حتى الآن، مع التلويح الدائم بغزوها.

إن فشل المشروع الأميركي في سورية وإيران واليمن، خلخل التمدد الأميركي في الشرق الأوسط، وقلّصه في العراق، مفسحاً المدى لحركة روسية وصينية تجمع بين الاهداف الاقتصادية والاحلاف السياسية.

وهذه عناصر تدفع عادة نحو إنجاز جيوبولتيك روسي، وصيني هو الذي يتيح المشاركة بقوة التوازنات المستجدّة في نظام تعدد الأقطاب.

لذلك من الضرورة الإشارة الى أن روسيا المتموضعة في الشرق الأوسط انطلاقاً من الميدان السوري والصمود الإيراني ـ اليمني، ومسارعة الصين الى ترجمة تفوقها الاقتصادي في مجالات الجيوبولتيك استناداً أيضاً إلى الحركة الإيرانية ـ السورية لهي من المعطيات التي تدفع نحو تشكل حلف بين هذا الرباعي، الصيني ـ الروسي ـ الإيراني ـ السوري خصوصاً أن الخطة الأميركية الجديدة عادت الى استهداف إيران بشكل مركب وخطير. كما تحاول خلق ظروف جديدة في شرق سورية وأنحائها الشمالية لتفتيتها، وإلغاء دورها العربي وحتى الداخلي.

اما المناسبة التي استغلها الأميركيون لتطبيق خطتهم الجديدة، فكان القصف اليمني على مصفاتي بقيق وخريص التابعتين لأرامكو السعودية وهو رد على عدوان سعودي إماراتي يقتل المدنيين من الاطفال والنساء منذ أكثر من أربعة اعوام.

إلا أن الأميركيين ذهبوا نحو اتهام إيران بهذا القصف للهرب من حق اليمن بالردّ على العدوانية السعودية من جهة وللتركيز على إيران، كخدمة للأهداف الأميركية الجيوبولتيكية التي تعتقد ان إسقاط الجمهورية الإسلامية هي إعادة لإمساكها الكبير للشرق الاوسط.

ما هي اذاً الأسباب التي تدفع بكين وموسكو الى ممارسات سياسات هادئة في أزمة الخليج؟ وهما تعرفان أنهما مستهدفتان بدوريهما؟

لا يريد الروس دفع الأمور نحو حرب كبيرة، خصوصاً انهم ملمون بالمدى الذي لا يمكن للأميركيين تجاوزه نظراً لقدرة إيران على استيعاب أي هجوم أميركي، كما ان موسكو لا تريد تقديم نفسها قوة معادية للخليج النفطي، لذلك يحذّر الروس الأميركيين من مغبة إعلان حرب لن تؤدي الى ما تريده من هيمنة.

هناك إذاً اطمئنان روسي من القدرات الإيرانية والروسية، مع حرص على تقدّم موسكو الاقتصادي والسياسي في تركيا ومصر والعراق ومناطق أخرى، وتركيز على حماية الميدان السوري بالقوة والسياسة أيضاً، وهذا واضح من خلال الاتجاه الروسي نحو بناء مفاوضات سياسية تجمع سورية وتركيا من ناحية وسورية والكرد من ناحية ثانية، الأمر الذي يكشف مدى مراهنة الروس على سورية قوية متحالفة معهم ومع إيران أيضاً، لذلك فإن أي تطور عسكري أميركي لن يقف الروس منه موقف المحايد، بل الداعم لإيران بالسلاح والاقتصاد، ولسورية بالمشاركة العسكرية المباشرة.

لجهة الصين، فبنت امبراطورية اقتصادية ضخمة، تحاول حماية انتشارها بالسياسة الهادئة من دون تطرّف، فهي على مستوى السياسة حليف كبير لروسيا في مجلس الأمن الدولي ومختلف المنظمات، ولا تتورع عن إرسال مساعدات إلى فنزويلا وشراء نفط من إيران المحاصرة، وقد ترفع وتيرة أدائها بمواكبة الانتقال المحتمل للأميركيين الى الحلول العسكرية، فعندها لن تتأخر الصين عن استعمال إمكاناتها المختلفة.

تؤكد هذه المعطيات ان الحلف الرباعي قابل للتطور على وقع تطور التهديد الأميركي الى حالات حروب وبشكل تظهر فيه المراهنة الروسية الصينية على الصمودين الإيراني ـ السوري كوسيلة لإنتاج عالم متعدد القطب ينقذ الإنسانية من مخاطر رجال بورصة يؤرخون للانهيار النهائي لكامل ما تبقى من أخلاق في العالم الغربي.

Ansraullah Leader Vows More Painful Strikes as Aggression Continues

Ansraullah Leader Vows More Painful Strikes as Aggression Continues

By Staff

Leader of Yemen’s Ansarullah revolutionary movement Sayyed Abdul Malik Badreddine al-Houthi vowed more painful strikes that would deeply hit the aggression zones, without having any redlines in this regard.

He then advised the aggression forces to stop their attacks and take lessons of the grave failure they have reached.

In the same respect, the Ansarullah leader stressed that civilians based in the targeted areas must beware and stay away from the targeted facilities.

Sayyed al-Houthi’s warning came as the Saudi coalition’s bombing campaigns and blockade continue against the Yemeni people despite a reciprocal peace initiative that was proposed by Yemen’s President of the Supreme Political Council Mahdi al-Mashat the day earlier.

Making the remarks while marking the fifth anniversary of the September 21st revolution, Sayyed al-Houthi stressed that the most important and greatest achievements of that revolution is the liberation from foreign tutelage, the restoration of independence and freedom.

“The result of the sacrifices, patience and steadfastness of our people are victory and strength while the aggression today is more retreating and weak,” he added.

Hailing the Yemeni people’s sacrifices, patience and resilience that made victory, Sayyed al-Houthi stressed that the aggression forces today are weaker than any other time.

Member of Supreme Warns Saudi Arabia Against Rejecting President Mushat’s Initiative

Member of Supreme Warns Saudi Arabia Against Rejecting President Mushat’s Initiative

2019-09-22 11:24:29

News – Yemen

Mohammed Ali al-Houthi member of the Supreme Political Council on Saturday warned against the consequences of Saudi Arabia’s rejection of President Mahdi al-Mashat’s initiative of stopping to launch Yemeni retaliatory missile and drone attacks against positions inside Saudi Arabia if they reciprocates the initiative in kind.

“If they do not agree, we will hurt them more, and we will not hand them over our necks,” al-Houthi said in a speech to a mass rally in the capital Sana’a celebrating the fifth anniversary of the September 21st revolution.

“We have the resolve and the decision to strike anywhere,” Al-Houthi said, noting that the development of military capabilities continues no matter.

Al-Houthi confirmed that the republican system is the existing and continuous system in Yemen and the democratic approach is the one that the Yemenis aspire to.

He noted that Yemenis do not need the aggression states to recognize their power. “It is enough for us that our people know our strength that can deter the enemy.”

Al-Houthi explained that the Yemenis have revolted and still for the sake of right and justice . “We hold the one-Yemen project that believes in others and calls for public reconciliation.”

#Yemen #US_Saudi_Aggression #September_21st_revolution

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الدور الأميركي في الهجوم اليمني على أرامكو

سبتمبر 23, 2019

د. جواد الهنداوي

الحرب، ومثلها الدبلوماسية، هما أداتا السياسة.

ما لم يمكن تحقيقه، من أهداف سياسية، من خلال الدبلوماسية، تلجأ الدولة الى الحرب. ولا يهمّ، في الوقت الحاضر، إنْ كانت الحرب قانونية او غير قانونية. وشاعت، في الوقت الحاضر، ظاهرة شنّ الحرب عِبرَ وكلاء قاعدة، داعش، النصرة، وغيرها . كما شاعت أيضاً ظاهرة حرب اقتصادية، من خلال عقوبات وحصار في الضدّ من القوانين الدولية والمواثيق والمعاهدات والاتفاقيات الدولية. وللسياسة الأميركية، في الوقت الحاضر، إيجابية في تطبيق حروبها بالوكالة والاقتصادية ، لا يمكن ولا ينبغي إنكارها. وهذه الإيجابية هي عدالتها في التطبيق، على أعدائها أو خصومها إيران، كوبا، فنزويلا، روسيا، الصين، وغيرها ، وعلى حلفائها وأصدقائها أوروبا، تركيا، العرب . تحارب إيران بالحصار، وتحارب حلفاءها وأصدقاءها العرب بالخذلان والإهمال، وتحارب حلفاءها وأصدقاءها الأوروبيين بوحدتهم الاتحاد الأوروبي وباقتصادهم مصادر الطاقة لأوروبا .

الرئيس ترامب، وكما قال، ليس مهتمّاً كثيراً بنفط الشرق الأوسط، في صخور ومستودعات أميركا نفط يكفيها ويغنيها عن نفط العرب، لم ولن تهمّ الرئيس ترامب أهمية مصادر الطاقة في الشرق الأوسط لأوروبا وللصين وللعالم !

في وقت السلم، كما في وقت الحرب، لا تخلو السياسة من الكذب والخداع والتضليل وأحياناً التضحية بالحليف أو بالصديق وعدم صدّ الأذى والضّرر عنه، وربما التضحية به وتقديمه قرباناً من أجل المصلحة، وأميركا في مقدّمة الدول التي تمارس هذه الفضائل في السياسة.

استفهامات مشروعة، يفرضهما العقل والمنطق، عن الهجوم الحوثي أو اليمني على منشآت أرامكو.

لا يمكن تكذيب ما قاله وادّعاه الناطق الرسمي باسم القوات اليمنيّة، عن مسؤوليتهم وتبنّيهم الهجوم.

ولم يعد سراً دعم إيران للحوثيين ولحماس ولحزب الله، وتجد إيران في ذلك عزاً وفخراً. هذه عناصر تُشكل المعطيات المعلومة والمعروفة في هجوم أرامكو، ولكن الأهمّ منها هي مُعطيات الهجوم المستورة والتي تُشكل سرّ ولغُز الهجوم. وهي معطيات لا تخصُّ المهاجم وإنما تخصُّ الطرف الآخر، المملكة والدفاعات الأميركية والرادارات الأميركية والأوروبية والمنتشرة في البر والبحر وسماء المنطقة.

هل يُعقل انطلاق عشر طائرات واجتيازها مسافة أكثر من 1000 كيلومتر ومرورها فوق قواعد بحرية وبرية أوروبية وأميركية وفي منطقة حرب، حيث يُفترض أن تكون القوات المعنية كافة في حالة إنذار، وخاصة تجاه الطائرات المُسيّرة التي لا تفارق سماء المنطقة، من دون أن تُرصد؟

هل تقصير أميركي أم غضّ نظر، وفقاً لمبدأ آدم سمث في الاقتصاد دعه يعمل دعه يمر!

ما هي مصلحة أميركا في فرضية دورها السلبي في الهجوم عدم تفعيل دفاعاتها وراداراتها ؟

هل كان الرئيس ترامب والقيادة العسكرية الأميركية بحاجة الى دليل أو برهان آخر على عقلانية قرارهما وخيارهما عدم الحرب مع إيران ، لتجنّب الضرر الذي يقعُ على المملكة والدول الأخرى، لا سيما، وحسب التقارير الصحافية والدبلوماسية والمعلنة، بأنّ بعض الدول العربية و إسرائيل تدفع الرئيس ترامب نحو خيار الحرب؟

هل سيكون هذا الحدث دافعاً نحو إيقاف حرب اليمن والجنوح لحلّ سياسي؟

ممكن جداً ان يكون الحدث مناسبة أخرى للرئيس الأميركي لصولة نحو تحديث الأسلحة التي بحوزة المملكة او العاملة على أرض المملكة، وفي الأمر منفعة مالية للخزينة الأميركية !

الحدث أنذرَ العالم، وخاصة دول المنطقة والدول الأوروبية على ضرورة تجنّب الحرب وضرورة إيجاد حلّ للعلاقة الأميركية – الإيرانية. حركة الوساطات للقاء أميركي إيراني ستنشط، لا سيما بمناسبة اللقاء الأممي، في الأيام المقبلة في نيويورك.

وخطوات نحو التهدئة، ومن جانب الحوثيين، قد بدأت بإعلان رئيس المجلس السياسي الأعلى في صنعاء بإيقاف استهداف المملكة بالطائرات المسيّرة والصواريخ.

سفير سابق وأكاديمي عراقي

آل سعود يُطلقون النار على رؤوسهم

سبتمبر 21, 2019

د. وفيق إبراهيم

اعتقد آل سعود أنهم قادرون على احتلال اليمن وإلحاقه بنفوذهم بحربهم الضروس التي شنّوها قبل أربع سنوات ولا تزال متواصلة.

لكن النتائج انقلبت عليهم، بصمود أسطوريّ يكشف مدى إيمان شعب يمني متواضع الإمكانات، بقدرته على القتال ضدّ الغزاة حتى بالحجارة والأسنان. فهذا شعب له هوية تاريخية يتشبت بها وينقلها سليمة إلى الأحفاد.

لذلك فإنّ آل سعود في مأزق حقيقي متعدّد الأبعاد: الأول هو انتقال حربهم إلى داخل السعودية نفسها، والثاني أن اليمنيين بدأوا يستهدفون بطائراتهم المسيرة، نقاط القوة السعوديّة الوحيدة التي تؤمن لهم هذا الانجذاب الغربي ـ الأميركي إليهم. وهي مصافي النفط والمطارات والمواقع الإداريّة والعسكريّة. والنقطة الثالثة هي انكشاف عجزهم العسكريّ ضدّ هذه الهجمات اليمنية بما يدفع إلى الاعتقاد بأن مئات مليارات الدولارات التي دفعها السعوديّون ثمناً للأسلحة الأميركية ـ الأوروبية ليست أكثر من حديد أصيب بصدأ لندرة استعماله والعناية به والتدرب عليه.

أما النقطة الرابعة، فهو الإحباط الذي تتزايد درجاته عند السعوديين خصوصاً والخليجيين عموماً من البرودة الغربية في التعامل مع قصف مصفاتي أرامكو في بقيق وصريح، وهما أكبر مصفاتين سعوديتين تورّدان الذهب الأسود.

كان آل سعود يعتقدون أن هجوماً أميركياً أوروبياً، ينطلق آلياً بمجرد حدوث استهداف يمني كبير على مراكز نفطهم التي تشكل عصب الاقتصاد الغربي بالاستهلاك المباشر أو الاستثمار في ربوعها ببيع مختلف السلع الغربية أو بالاثنين معاً.

لقد أثارت ردود فعل الرئيس الأميركي ترامب، امتعاض الخليج الذي لا يتجرأ على التعبير عن نقمته. فليس معقولاً أن يبدأ سيد البيت الأبيض باتهام إيران متحولاً بسرعة مدهشة نحو التأكيد بأن بلاده مكتفية بنفطها وغازها الصخريين وليست بحاجة للسعودية بهذا الشأن، لذلك دعاها إلى تغطية تكاليف أي تحرك عسكري أميركي في المنطقة.

وعندما لمس صمتاً خليجياً، ابتدأ بالقول إنه لا يريد حرباً مع إيران، مضيفاً بأن الحرب هي آخر الحلول وليست مستبعَدة، مُسهباً بعد يومين فقط، بأن الحرب «مستبعدة وممكنة» بأسلوب بائع أسهم في بورصة الأحياء الشعبية في نيويورك.

المهم هنا، هو معرفة ما يريده الأميركيون بشكل دقيق، فهم يبتعدون عن أي إشارة لحرب اليمن وعلاقتها بقصف المصافي السعودية.

ما يوضح أن الحاجة الأميركية لهذه الحرب لم تنتهِ بعد، وإن على السعودية مواصلة عدوانها على اليمن: وأغراضها منها، فهي منع تشكل دولة يمنية مستقلة، والسيطرة على حدودها البحرية من عمان وحتى باب المندب وصولاً إلى الحدود في أعالي البحر الأحمر مع السعودية.

وللأميركيين اهتمامات غامضة بموارد طاقة يمنيّة تقول مصادر غربية إنها موجودة بكميات وازنة، وتجمع بين النفط والغاز.

هذه أسباب أميركية تمنع السعوديين من التخلي عن عدوانهم وفي طريقة لرفع مستوى الرعب السعودي، يتعمّد الأميركيون الربط بين إيران واليمن والعراق وسورية ولبنان، مع التركيز على محورية إيران في هذا الحلف، الأمر الذي يربط آل سعود بالسياسة الأميركية المعادية لإيران.

الجمهورية الإسلامية إذاً هي هدف أميركي أساسي يريد البيت الأبيض تفجير دولتها، لكنه يصطدم بقدرتها الدفاعية والهجومية، فيعمد إلى الاستثمار بهذه القوة الإيرانية بوسيلتين: عزلها عن الجوار الخليجي، وتحويل هذا الخليج إلى سوق كبيرة لشراء السلاح الأميركي إلى جانب حصر علاقاتها الاقتصادية بالسلع الأميركية والغربية، من خلال استبعاد السلع الصينية والآسيوية عموماً.

لكن، فالخطة الأميركية تركز على الأولويات المتحكمة حالياً بالعقل الخليجي الرسمي، وهو الخوف على الأنظمة السياسية، وبما أن السلاح الخليجي الموجود لم يتمكّن من صدّ الصواريخ والمسيَّرات اليمنية. فهذا يعني عجزه عن التعامل مع المستجدّات العسكرية لهذه المرحلة، فلا بأس إذاً بشراء أسلحة حديثة للزوم قمع الداخل من جهة والخارج الإيراني ـ العراقي ـ اليمني من جهة ثانية.

ألا تفترض هذه الأهداف تغييراً كاملاً للسلاح الموجود، يؤدي إلى تقليد خليجي متسارع من الكويت وحتى عمان مروراً بالإمارات والبحرين وقطر. وقد توزع السعودية صفقات أسلحة حديثة على الأردن ومصر والسودان لضرورات التعاون.

ماذا يعني هذا التجديد؟ تستلزم الأسلحة الحديثة وقتاً طويلاً للتعامل المفيد معها، الأمر الذي يستلزم إيفاد آلاف العسكريين الخليجيين للتدرب عليها في بلاد الإنتاج، وهذا يتطلب دفع أثمان السلاح وكلفة التدريب عليها، ونفقات آلاف المستشارين الغربيين الذي يعملون في جيوش الخليج، وتسديد ثمن أسلحة الدول الصديقة، المتحالفة.

إنها إذاً عملية مرهقة، تقول مصادر عسكرية روسية، إن نفقاتها قد تزيد عن ألف مليار دولار قابلة للتصاعد، وهي كافية لإنعاش الطبقات الوسطى في الغرب الصناعي، وإعادة تجديد معامل السلاح في بلدانه.

بالمقابل ليس أكيداً قدرة الخليج على استعمال هذا السلاح الذي قد يصبح قديماً بعد نصف عقد على شرائه والتدرب عليه وفي عالم ينتج أسبوعياً، أصنافاً جديدة من الأسلحة.

هناك نقطة إضافية وهي أن السلاح يحتاج إلى عقيدة قتال، ليست موجودة في الخليج الملتزم بالسياسة الأميركية وبالتالي الإسرائيلية، فيبدو آل سعود كمن يطلقون النار على رؤوسهم في حروب لا علاقة لهم بها، لتطوير طبقات غربية على حساب شعوبهم التي تحتاج إلى تطوير فعلي يمنعه عنهم الأميركيون ومعهم آل سعود الذين يخافون من السعوديين أكثر من إيران واليمن وحزب الله.

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معادلة السيد أوقفوا حروبكم… أو «تخبزوا بالفراح»

سبتمبر 21, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– بعد توضيحات لا بد منها في ملفات شهدت بعض الاجتهادات والتساؤلات، انطلق السيد حسن نصرالله إلى رسم معادلاته الجديدة، كناطق بلسان محور المقاومة، الذي قال في وصفه أنه محور قوي وشجاع، منذ أن حسم معادلة انتهاء مرحلة التصرف كفرقاء مقاومين كل في ساحته إلى قرار التعامل كمحور موحّد في مواجهة كل حرب على أطراف المحور. والمحور الشجاع هو المحور الذي اتخذ قرار المواجهة متحسباً لمخاطر نشوب حرب، من إسقاط الطائرة الأميركية التجسسية العملاقة في الخليج، إلى عملية أفيفيم النوعية في فلسطين المحتلة، إلى عملية أرامكو التي هزت السعودية والاقتصاد العالمي. وهو المحور القوي لأنه نجح في تحقيق الأهداف وفي ردع العدو وإفهامه أن لا جدوى من مجرد التفكير بالردّ، فرسم معادلاته وقواعد اشتباكه ورسخ قانون حربه.

– في التوضيحات تناول السيد قضيتين راهنتين، الأولى مفردة المبعَدين بالتوازي مع قضية العملاء، ففكّكها مؤكداً أنها مفردة لا تعبر عن واقع، فما هو أمامنا الفارون أو الهاربون للاحتماء بكيان الاحتلال، هم عائلات العملاء، ولا خلط بين ملف العملاء وعائلاتهم، لكن كل شيء وفقاً للقانون، وكل مَن يعود يجب أن يخضع للتحقيق، ومن يثبت تورّطه بالعمالة على أي مستوى يجب أن يلقى عقاباً يتناسب مع أفعاله، ولا يجوز أن تكون الأحكام هزيلة ولا أن تسقط بمرور الزمن. وربّ ضارة نافعة أن حدث ما حدث حتى تنبّه الجميع لخطورة هذا الخلط والتهاون والتراخي. أما التوضيح الثاني فطال انتخابات كيان الاحتلال، حيث جرى تصوير كلام المقاومة عن صلة مساعي رئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو للتصعيد بمطامعه السلطوية والانتخابية، كأنه انحياز من المقاومة لمنافسيه واعتبار إسقاطه أولوية، ودعوة غير مباشرة للناخبين العرب للمشاركة في الانتخابات تحقيقاً لهدف عنوانه، إسقاط نتنياهو. فقال السيد، الانتخابات لا تعنينا، فكلهم قتلة وكلهم صهاينة وكلهم عنصريون، وكلهم في معسكر العدو.

– انطلق السيد لرسم معادلاته، وهو يرسمها باسم قيادة محور المقاومة، من طهران إلى بغداد إلى دمشق وبيروت وغزة وصنعاء، والمعادلات الجديدة تطال كل منهج التهديد بالعقوبات والتلويح بالحرب، وعنوانها أن العقوبات لن تغيّر شيئاً في موازين القوى مهما اشتدت وزادت قسوة، وأن الرد عليها سيكون مزيداً من التصعيد في الميدان، أسوة بعمليات إسقاط الطائرة الأميركية، وعملية أفيفيم، وعملية أرامكو، لكن الواضح أن الأولوية في قراءة المحور، ليست باعتبار الساحة الأشد زجاجية التي تشكل الخاصرة الرخوة لمحور واشنطن هي ساحة الخليج، بل أكثر لأن محور المقاومة ليس معنياً بتسويات تحفظ ماء الوجه لكل من واشنطن وتل أبيب، بينما هو مستعدّ لمنح هذه الفرصة لحكومات الخليج التي تتلقى التحذير من العواقب الكارثية لاستخدامها أكياس رمل في الحرب الأميركية الصهيونية بوجه محور المقاومة وشعب اليمن، لكنها تتلقى سلّماً للنزول عن الشجرة عنوانه، وقف الحرب على اليمن، لتتفادى البقاء كيس ملاكمة يتلقى الضربات بالنيابة عن واشنطن وتل أبيب. لكن المعادلة شاملة كل الجبهات، ولكل المتورطين في الحروب الأميركية الصهيونية في واشنطن وتل أبيب كما في الخليج، أوقفوا حروبكم قبل أن تخبزوا بالفراح .

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Resistance report: Syrian Army takes the initiative in Idlib while Washington blames its failures on Iran again

Resistance report: Syrian Army takes the initiative in Idlib while Washington blames its failures on Iran again

September 20, 2019

By Aram Mirzaei for The Saker Blog

August was an eventful month for the Syrian Army and its allies as the battle for northwestern Syria saw a breakthrough after months of static frontline movements. Just like in the previous 3 years, the month of August has been one accompanied by important victories for Damascus. The Syrian Army managed to break through the jihadist lines at the Khan Sheikhoun front and from there steamrolled through the entire frontline, eventually encircling and trapping the jihadist militants in a pocket in northern Hama. Despite counteroffensives launched by Tahrir Al-Sham and their allies from the “Rouse the believers” operations room, the SAA managed to hold on to the newly liberated areas.

With this development, Hama city and Christian towns such as Mhardeh are now safe from the encroaching jihadist threat. This offensive should be expanded now that the Syrian Army still has the initiative, especially with the jihadist morale still shaken by the loss of their doorway into Hama. It is important for Damascus to clear out the remainder of the Latakia province as well as western Aleppo since both these areas are heavily populated and hold strategic value. If Latakia and Aleppo are cleared, then the jihadist threat will be contained to a single province in the country, leaving them pretty much besieged in Idlib as Ankara’s support seems to be fading, as evident by their passiveness during the Syrian Army’s August offensive.

Since the conclusion of the offensive, with a new ceasefire having been declared and expired, the Syrian Army is said to be amassing troops near the Al-Ghaab front in a potential move to completely kick the jihadists out of Hama and thereby finally paving the way for the liberation of Jisr Al-Shughour. This news seems to have been expected by the Jihadists as the Jaysh Al-Izza terrorist outfit has already begun making preparations for the upcoming battle, reportedly sending over 2000 men to the Western Hama countryside. The Syrian Army would do well to be careful here as the key hilltop town of Kabani, overlooking Jisr Al-Shughour still hasn’t been liberated.

Meanwhile, last weekend saw more than half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production go down in flames as the Saudi Aramco oilfields and refineries came under heavy drone attacks. The attacks caused the greatest drop in oil production in history, prompting oil prices to jump 19 percent. If oil prices rise further, the world will inch closer to a global recession, which, among other things, could cost Trump his reelection. Immediately after the attacks, the Yemeni Houthis issued a statement where they took responsibility for the attacks with the movement’s spokesperson General Yahya Sare’e adding that 10 drones were deployed against the sites at Khurais and Abqaiq. “This was one of the largest operations which our forces have carried out deep inside Saudi Arabia. It came after careful intelligence and cooperation with honorable and free people inside Saudi Arabia,” he said without elaboration.

Washington was quick to dismiss the Houthi claim of responsibility when Trump said that Washington has “reason to believe that we know the culprit,” noting that Washington is “locked and loaded depending on verification” and is waiting to “hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack.” The same response was voiced by Pompeo and Lindsey Graham who called for Washington to strike Iran in an attempt to “break the regime’s back”.

Surely Washington understands how embarrassing this debacle is for them. The Saudis have spent hundreds of billions of dollars on purchasing US military equipment and weapons. Equipment and weapons that Washington has spent quite some time claiming is superior to anything else the world has to offer. Last week, a Saudi prince took to twitter and claimed that Saudi Arabia could “destroy Iran in 8 hours”, adding that Iran’s military technology belong to the “museum”.

That same claimed superior weaponry failed to stop a single attack that took out half of the kingdom’s oil production. This makes me wonder if they’re laying the blame on Iran in order to cover up the even greater embarrassment, that American and Saudi military forces and their networks of advanced air defenses never detected the Yemeni drones that were launched on Saturday to strike oil facilities deep inside Saudi Arabia, proving futile the billions of dollars that the Riyadh regime has spent on them to protect its territories. What message does this send to US vassals around the world? In an attempt to downplay the uselessness of the Patriot system, Pompeo, sounding surprised by the vastness of the operation, said: “This is an attack of a scale we’ve just not seen before.”

Really? Never seen before? So the thousands of drone strikes that Washington has launched across the Islamic world is something that they’ve never seen before?

In any case, Pompeo immediately traveled to Riyadh to assure Washington’s vassals that everything is under control, and to discuss “potential responses”, calling the incident “an act of war”. By now, this blame game has become routine, Washington keeps using the same miserable strategy of intimidation, thinking it will work at the 500th attempt.

So here we are again, another dubious incident in which Tehran is held responsible, without any evidence presented. Of course, Tehran didn’t just stand idly by while Washington made these threats, both Ayatollah Khamenei and foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif issued separate responses, vehemently denying Iran’s role in the attack and warning that any attack on Iran would spark an all out war. Khamenei also went on to talk about the importance of not falling for the failed US maximum pressure campaign, which this is all about. Speaking on Tuesday, Khamenei said entering talks with the US under the current circumstances would be tantamount to surrendering to Washington’s pressure campaign. “Negotiating would mean Washington imposing its demands on Tehran. It would also be a manifestation of the victory of America’s maximum pressure campaign,” he noted.

Thus, the Islamic Republic has correctly calculated that Washington’s maximum pressure campaign is nothing but a bluff to intimidate Iran into entering negotiations. Khamenei said “I had already said that America’s objective of [pursuing] talks is to impose [its demands], but they have become so insolent that they even speak about this openly.”

“The US regime is after making its domestic rivals and the Europeans accept this as a definitive policy that maximum pressure is the only way to confront Iran,” added Ayatollah Khamenei. “Their objective in [offering to hold] talks is to prove to everyone that the policy of maximum pressure has yielded results, and that Iranian authorities were forced to come to the negotiating table despite what they said.”

The most probable conclusion is that there won’t be a war. Washington knows very well that it cannot afford a regional war, especially not now when Washington has been exposed for not being able to defend its vassals. If indeed Iran was behind this attack, then one can imagine that if a single drone strike took out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production, imagine what an all-out war would result in for Washington and its vassals. The consequences of this debacle can be very severe for Washington in the future as Moscow has already offered the Arab states to purchase Russian weaponry instead, slowly outmanoeuvring Washington as was the case with Turkey and the S-400 deal. It is a real pathetic mess that Washington has got itself into. Washington’s own allies won’t even back their lies. “We are not aware of any information that points to Iran,” Japan’s Defense Minister Taro Kono told reporters at a briefing on Wednesday.

“We believe the Houthis carried out the attack based on the statement claiming responsibility,” he added, referring to the Yemeni group incorporated into the armed forces fighting back a Saudi-led war on Yemen.

Washington’s list of options grows thin, the US better retract its words, repent and return to the nuclear accord that it has violated or see itself fall even further into decay as Washington’s days of being the sole unipolar power that everyone used to fear are quickly fading away.

Sayyed Nasrallah to Al Saud: Any US War on Iran Will Destroy You

September 20, 2019

Capture

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah Friday stressed that the drone attack launched by the Yemeni army and popular committees on Aramco facilities left international repercussions, pointing out that oil is unfortunately viewed as more valuable than human blood by many political forces.

Delivering a speech during Hezbollah memorial ceremony of senior Lebanese cleric Sheikh Hussein Kourani, Sayyed Nasrallah said that five years of crimes against the Yemeni men, women and children could not shake the world, calling on all who condemned Aramco attacks to denounce Saudi-led atrocities in Yemen.

His eminence also advised Al Saud royals to reconsider their geopolitical calculations, stressing that any US war on Iran will destroy them.

Hezbollah leader emphasized that if Saudi and UAE stop their war on Yemen, they will not be in need of squandering more money to fund it and buying the costly defense systems against the drone attacks which, in turn, will inflict heavy losses upon both of them.

Those who live in glass house must calm down and review their stance, Sayyed Nasrallah said in reference to the glass towers in several Gulf cities.

Sayyed Nasrallah also called on KSA and the United Arab Emirates to avoid betting on any US war on Yemen, stressing that President Donald Trump is blackmailing both of them to seize more of their financial fortune.

“US President Donald Trump pleads the Iranian President Sheikh Hasan Rouhani to hold a bilateral meeting.”

Israeli Elections

Hezbollah Secretary General stressed that the results of the Israeli elections indicate that the entity is aging and suffering from a deep leadership crisis, adding that all the Zionist leaders possess the same hostile spirits against the Arabs and that the Islamic Resistance has identical attitudes towards all of them.

Sayyed Nasrallah stressed Benjamin Netanyahu desperately tried to win the elections and keep as a prime minister by attacking Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza and pledging the annexation of the occupied West Bank, adding that his failure came despite the unprecedented US support (Deal of the Century, embassy move, acknowledging the ‘Israeli sovereignty’ on Golan).

His eminence further called on Syria’s Qusair locals displaced to Lebanon to return to their town, adding that Hezbollah and the Syrian government took all the measures which secure their return.

Sayyed Nasrallah recalled his stance in which he denied any Hezbollah intention to cause a demographic change in Syria, stressing that Qusair town is one of the samples the prove the inaccuracy of such accusations.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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طوى ترامب صفحة بولتون… فماذا عن الشرق الأوسط؟

سبتمبر 20, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– في صحيفتين شديدتي التعبير عن مناخ الباحثين والمفكرين والنخب المشاركة في صناعة القرار الأميركي مقالتان شديدتي الأهمية، واحدة لخبير الأمن والاستراتيجية المعروف باتزانه ومكانته ستيفن كوك نشرها في الفورين بوليسي، والثانية افتاحية لوول ستريت جورنال، والمقالتان تتناولان عملية ضرب مجمع أرامكو كمفصل هام في تحديد مستقبل الدور الأميركي في الشرق الأوسط، وفقا لتسمية الأميركيين لمنطقتنا. والتقاطع بين المقالتين واضح ومحدد ودقيق، وهو أنه من اللحظة التي لم يأخذ الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب فيها بنصيحة جون بولتون بالردّ على إسقاط إيران لطائرة التجسس الأميركية العملاقة، حدث أمران، الأول هو تبلور قرار ترامب بطرد بولتون، والثاني هو قرار إيران بالمضي قدماً في التصعيد، والسؤال الذي طرحته الوول ستريت علناً تحت عنوان هل يندم ترامب على طرد بولتون ويعود لنصائحه ولو بغيابه فيقرر المواجهة؟ طرحه ستيفن كوك في مقالته بصورة أشدّ عمقاً تحت عنوان، كيفية التصرف الأميركي بعد ضربة أرامكو لن تقرر فقط مستقبل السياسة الأميركية في المنطقة، بل مستقبل الوجود الأميركي في المنطقة، وتالياً مستقبل المنطقة، كما يقول عنوان مقال ستيفن كوك في الفورين بوليسي، هذه هي اللحظة التي تقرّر مستقبل الشرق الأوسط .

– المقالتان منشورتان قبل إعلان الرئيس ترامب عن تسمية مستشاره الجديد للأمن القومي روبرت أوبراين وما يتضمنه الاختيار من قطيعة مع نظريات بولتون، وإشهار لبدء عهد جديد يقوم على التفاوض، والذهاب إلى الأمم المتحدة، والابتعاد عن خيار المواجهة مع إيران. كذلك تعليق بولتون على ضربة أرامكو المتوافق مع مضمون المقالتين في القول إن عدم تجاوب ترامب مع دعوات الرد على إسقاط الطائرة كان السبب في تشجيع إيران على المضي في خيار التصعيد وصولاً لعملية أرامكو، سابق لجواب ترامب الضمني عليه بطبيعة اختياره أوبراين للخلف، وهو الآتي من عالم التفاوض والتحكيم والتعاقدات الاقتصادية. وبما قاله ترامب عن ترجيح خيار التعامل الدبلوماسي مع عملية أرامكو، ما يعني أن الأجوبة على الأسئلة التي طرحتها الصحيفتان قد تمت.

– ترامب ليس نادماً على طرد بولتون ولا على عدم الأخذ بنصيحته. هذا هو الجواب على سؤال الوول ستريت، والأهم هو الجواب على ما مهدت له الفورين بوليسي من توقعات لما سيترتب على كيفية التعامل مع عملية أرامكو. فستيفن كوك يقول في تلك المقالة، إن ثلاثة مصالح أساسية رسمت سياسة الولايات المتحدة تجاه الشرق الأوسط وتحكمت بها على مدى سبعة عقود وهي: ضمان التدفق الحر لموارد الطاقة من المنطقة، والمساعدة في الحفاظ على الأمن الإسرائيلي، والتأكد من عدم قدرة أي دولة أو مجموعة من الدول على تحدّي القوة الأميركية في الطريقة التي من شأنها أن تعرض المصالح الأخرى للخطر . ويسرد كوك محطات كحربي الخليج في عهد كل من جورج بوش الأب وجورج بوش الإبن، كمثال على محركات هذه السياسة، ويعتبر كوك أن ما جرى في الخليج منذ شهور يتصل بالمحاور المحركة للسياسة الأميركية، النفط وأمن إسرائيل وتحدي الهيبة الأميركية. والطرف المعني هنا هو إيران، وابتعاد واشنطن عن الرد سيعني شيئاً واحداً، وهو أن الأساس المنطقي الكامل للاستثمار الأميركي في الشرق الأوسط على مدار السبعين سنة الماضية قد تغيّر . وبالتالي يجب على الولايات المتحدة أن تحزم أمتعتها وتعود إلى الوطن .

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الغربُ المسعور يطبّقُ وصية عبد العزيز!

Image result for ‫عبد العزيز فلسطين‬‎

سبتمبر 20, 2019

د. وفيق إبراهيم

تتجاهل الدول الغربية أن العدوان السعودي الاماراتي المغطى اميركياً على اليمن، هو سبب القصف الذي تتعرّض له الاهداف العسكرية والاقتصادية في السعودية.

فترهنُ الاحداث المتتابعة في الخليج لمصلحة توجيه الاتهام وحصره بإيران لأنها دولة محورية تعادي النفوذ الاميركي والكيان الإسرائيلي ولها شبكة تحالفات في معظم دول المنطقة، لذلك يتغاضى الأميركيون عن اعلان دولة صنعاء مسؤوليتها عن قصف مصفاتي بقيق وخريص مركزين المسؤولية الحصرية لإيران، وهذه تتمة لمزاعم غربية وسعودية تعتبر منذ عقد تقريباً ان انصار الله اليمنيين والحشد الشعبي العراقي وحزب الله اللبناني هم ميليشيات إيرانية وسط تجاهل عالمي للحرب اليمنية حرصاً من الدول الكبرى على مصالحها مع السعودية اكبر مصدر نفطي في العالم.

هناك اذاً محاولات غربية أميركية لاستثمار قصف المصفاتين السعوديتين بخطة تقضي بحماية المراكز المحلية للنفوذ الغربي في منطقة الخليج وجوارها.

لكن المدهش أن الخطة الغربية تبدو وكأنها تطبيق لنصيحة عبد العزيز آل سعود لأولاده التي دعاهم فيها لإضعاف دائم لليمن والعراق.

Image result for ‫وصية عبد العزيز اليمن‬‎

هذا الغرب الاميركي الاوروبي المتجاهل مأساة اليمن يركز على ثلاث نقاط: تفتيت العراق الى دول مستقلة أو كانتونات، شرذمة اليمن الى دول او كانتونات متصارعة، اما النقطة الثالثة التي تبدأ بتطبيقها فتركز على منع أي تقارب سوري عراقي يؤدي الى فتح الحدود بينهما، وهذه من المحرمات الكبرى.

لكن تطبيق هذه الآليات يحتاج الى شعار كبير، هو الخطر الإيراني ومعادلة جامعة هي أمن الملاحة في الخليج والبحر الاحمر، فهذا كافٍ لتجميع المهتمين بثروات النفط والغاز على المستوى العالمي ومعهم انظمة دول النفط وبعض تحالفاتها العربية، لذلك سارعت كل من السعودية والإمارات الى اعلان انضمامها الى تحالف أمن الملاحة في الخليج في حركة تحشيد سياسية هدفها إضفاء شرعية خليجية على حلف غربي لا يزال يعمل لإعادة ترسيخ نتائج الحرب العالمية الثانية للاستحواذ الدائم على ما وفرت له من مغانم اقتصادية واستراتيجية.

ضمن هذه المعطيات تبدو الحرب السعودية على اليمن مرشحة للاستمرار بالوتيرة نفسها لأسباب تتعلق بتبرير العودة الغربية الى المنطقة، كما ان استعداء إيران على مستوى حوربة لا تؤدي الى حرب مطلوب ايضاً لاستمرار تمرير الذريعة الغربية التي تزعم انها تدافع عن المنطقة من هذا الخطر.

أين الخطر اذاً؟ فمنطقة الخليج مزروعة بالقواعد الاميركية وتخضع لسياسات البيت الابيض على نظام السمع والطاعة من دون أي تذمر؟ هذا الجديد يذهب نحو إيلاء العراق أهمية قصوى على اساس منعه من تعزيز وحدته الداخلية، ما يبقيه ضعيفاً واهناً تتحارب مناطقه الداخلية فتعطل حركته الخارجية، وهذه من نصائح المؤسس عبد العزيز.

العراق اذاً هو محور الحركة الغربية الحالية التي تنفذها أربع جهات: الاميركيون الذين يمتلكون عشر قواعد عسكرية فيه، وبعض القوى الداخلية المستفيدة من إضعاف العراق في كردستان والوسط وبعض المناطق الأخرى في الجنوب، و إسرائيل التي بدأت بتنظيم قصف متدرج بطائرات مسيرة على خط حدوده مع سورية.

لجهة الطرف الرابع فهو السعودية التي تعمل على تطوير تدخلها السياسي في العراق الى استهدافات نوعية عسكرية بتغطية أميركية إسرائيلية. وهذا مؤكد من خلال قصف جوي استهدف منذ يومين بعض انحاء محافظة الأنبار وتبين انه سعودي بذريعة استئصال ارهاب موجود في هذه النواحي، علماً ان العراق كان أعلن منذ يومين ايضاً عن فتح نقطة عبور مع السعودية عبر حدوده في الأنبار.

ان التبرير السعودي لهذا القصف غير منطقي. ويقول إن جهات إرهابية إيرانية تسللت الى الأنبار وقصفت المصفاتين السعوديتين من اراضيه.

هذه واحدة من الروايات السعودية الى جانب مزاعم ثانية تدّعي ان الرياض بصدد تحديد دقيق لمواقع القصف في الشمال، بما يشمل إيران ايضاً وربما الكويت.

العراق اذاً في جهاته الحدودية معرض لاستهدافات سعودية وإسرائيلية بأشكال مختلفة، لكن ردود فعله ممنوعة بسبب العرقلة الأميركية التي تسيطر على جزء من قواه الداخلية السياسية وتستعملها لمنع انتاج عراق قويّ، لذلك يعتبر الاميركيون ان منع التنسيق بين سورية والعراق مهمة استراتيجية يؤدي تحقيقها الى استمرار النفوذ الأميركي الكامل على المشرق العربي. وهذا ما يفسّر القصف المجهول تارة والأميركي طوراً والاسرائيلي في معظم الاحيان والسعودي المستجد على مناطق الحدود السورية العراقية، فخطورة هذا التنسيق استراتيجية وليست سياسية آنية، لأن ولادة معادلة من البحر المتوسط حتى مياه الخليج تجاور تركيا وإيران والخليج لهي من الكبائر التي لا يتحمّلها الجيوبوليتيك الاميركي، هذا بالاضافة الى انها تشكل بديلاً للانهيار المصري وبوسعها إعادة انتاج نظام عربي وازن يعيد للمنطقة شيئاً كبيراً من توازنها المسحوق اميركياً واسرائيلياً، ألم يعلن الرئيس المصري السيسي في مؤتمر علني منذ اسبوع فقط، ان الشرق لا يساوي شيئاً من دون سورية متهماً جهات عربية ودولية بمحاولة تفجيرها.

إن هذه المعطيات تكشف أن الحروب على اليمن والعراق وسورية وتحريم التنسيق بينهما، هي الاهداف الاساسية للعودة الغربية الى منطقة الشرق الاوسط وبحارها، فتحقيق هذه الأهداف يكفي لتحديد نتائج الحرب العالمية الثانية التي أخضعت الشرق بكامله لهيمنة غربية سجنته في كهوف التخلف.

فهل هذا ممكن وقابل للتجدد؟

صمود سورية وإصرار العراق على الخروج من بقايا السجن الاميركي وإدراك صواريخ اليمن لعمق معادلة الغرب في السعودية وانتقال إيران الى مستوى دول القرار، هي عوامل تؤكد ان الحرب العالمية الثانية ولت الى غير رجعة، مقابل تشكل منطقة جديدة يعمل اهلها على تحريرها من بقايا المستعمرين ومعهم الكيان الاسرائيلي وحلفاؤهم من عرب الانحطاط.

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Saudi Arabia up in Flames: Riyadh Is Headed for a Major Disaster

Image result for Saudi Arabia up in Flames: Riyadh Is Headed for a Major Disaster
Federico Pieraccini
September 19, 2019

On Saturday September 14, Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced that they had conducted a massive attack on several Aramco plants in Saudi Arabia, including the largest oil refinery in the world in Abqaiq, using 10 drones. On Twitter, dozens of videos and photos showed explosions, flames and the resulting damage.

The move is part of a retaliatory campaign by the Houthis in response to the indiscriminate bombings conducted by the Saudi air force over more than four years. UN estimates speak of more than 100,000 deaths and the largest humanitarian crisis since the Second World War.

The Saudi kingdom finds itself in an increasingly dangerous situation as a result of the retaliatory capacity of the Houthis, able to inflict severe military and economic damage on Riyadh with their missile forces. Estimates suggest that Riyadh is losing something in the region of $300 million a day from the Houthi attacks. On Sunday September 15, a spokesman for the Saudi oil ministry spoke of damage that is yet to be calculated, possibly requiring weeks of repair. Meanwhile, Saudi oil production has halved following the Saturday attack. With a military budget of $200,000, the Houthis managed to inflict damage numbering in the billions of dollars.

House of Saud Isolated

The withdrawal of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates from the conflict in Yemen, driven by their desire to improve relations with Tehran, and the impossibility of the United States intervening directly in the conflict, has created significant problems for the House of Saud. The conflict is considered by the UN to be the largest humanitarian crisis in the world, and Trump has no intention of giving the Democratic presidential contenders any ammunition with which to attack him. Bolton’s dismissal could be one of those Trump signals to the deep state stating that he does not intend to sabotage his re-election hopes in 2020 by starting a new war.

This reluctance by Washington to directly support Israel and Saudi Arabia has aggravated the situation for Riyadh, which now risks seeing the conflict move to its own territory in the south of the country. The Houthi incursions into Saudi Arabia are now a daily event, and as long as Riyadh continues to commit war crimes against innocent Yemeni civilians, the situation will only worsen, with increasingly grave consequences for the internal stability of the Saudi system.

Saturday’s retaliation is the real demonstration of what could happen to the Saudi economy if Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) refuses to sit down and negotiate a way out of one of the worst military disasters of the contemporary era.

The invincibility of US weapons systems is only in Hollywood movies

The Houthis have in recent months managed to strike their targets in Saudi Arabia dozens of times using different aerial means. This highlights once again the total failure of American air-defense systems in the country.

In contrast, the multiple Russian anti-aircraft systems in Syria have achieved a 100% success rate with regard to interceptions, managing to disable (through electronic warfare) all the drones, mortars and missiles launched by jihadists against Russia’s bases in Tartus bases and Latakia.

Blame Iran!

Pompeo blames Tehran for the Yemeni attack on Saudi Arabia, of course without offering any proof. Riyadh and Tel Aviv are increasingly isolated in the Middle East. Washington is only able to offer tweets and paranoia about Iran to help its allies, given that a direct intervention is seen as being too risky for the global economy, not to mention the possibility of the conflict becoming a wider regional conflagration that would sink any chance of reelection in 2020 for the present administration.

Trump, Netanyahu and MBS are concocting a witches’ brew that will bring about a disaster of unprecedented proportions to the region. It is only a matter of time before we see the baleful consequences of their handiwork.

A hypothesis to be discarded

There is some talk doing the rounds that the Saudis conducted a false-flag attack on their own oil refineries, a hypothesis that enjoys a superficial plausibility. The resulting increase in the price of oil could be seen as having a positive effect on Aramco’s share price, it is true. But for the reasons given below, this hypothesis is actually not plausible.

The Houthis develop their own weapons, assisted by the Yemeni army. Used drones would cost less than $20,000 a piece. The military embargo on Yemen (enforced by the US and UK) has created a humanitarian disaster, limiting food and medicine. The delivery of weapons by sea therefore seems unlikely. As repeatedly stated by Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign minister of Iran, as well as representatives of Ansarullah, Tehran has no influence on the Houthis.

The Yemeni response is part of an increasing asymmetric logic, which has as its primary objectives the halt to Riyadh’s bombings of Yemen by increasing the costs of doing so such that they become unsustainable. The obvious pressure point is the 20 billion barrels in strategic reserves.

There is no need for a false flag to blame Iran for the work of the Houthis. The corporate media is enough to have the false accusations repeated without the help of the Israelis or US-based neocons.

The Saudis are more cautious, even if unable to decide how to proceed. In Yemen, they have no more cards to play: they do not want to sit down and deal with Ansarullah, Tehran is unassailable, while Tel Aviv is pushing for a conflict, with Riyadh offered to be sacrificed.

I have been writing for months that, sooner or later, an event will occur that will change the regional balance in a possible conflict with Iran. This happened on Saturday, when half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production was brought to a halt by an attack.

Conclusion

There could not be any worse news for the neocons, Wahhabis and Zionists. If the Houthis could inflict such damage using 10 drones, then Tel Aviv, Riyadh and Washington must be having conniptions at the thought of what the Iranians would be capable of doing in the event that they themselves were attacked.

Any power (in this case the US and their air-defense systems) and its close ally would do everything to avoid suffering such a humiliation that would only serve to reveal their military vulnerabilities.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow is seen by many in Israel as a failure. It is confirmed in Tel Aviv that the Zionist state’s recent attacks in Syria have been quashed by Russian intervention, sending an unambiguous message to Netanyahu.

Netanyahu and MBS, I reiterate, are heading towards the political abyss. And given their inability to handle the situation, they will do everything in their power to draw Washington into their plans against Iran.

It is all certainly vain. But in the coming weeks, I expect further provocations and tensions in the Middle East.

The Ansarullah’s Aramco Drone Strike versus “The Real Act of War” against Yemen

Global Research, September 19, 2019

Pompeo’s provocative pronouncement that the Ansarullah’s drone strike on Aramco’s oil facilities was an “act of war” is extremely hypocritical because it ignores the fact that the Saudis were the ones to initiate the international dimension of the War on Yemen as part of the US’ long-running Hybrid War on Iran, and any conventional US and/or Saudi attack against the Islamic Republic in response to its alleged involvement in the attack would amount to an “act of war” against the entire world due to the global economic consequences that such a move would very likely trigger.

US Secretary of State Pompeo provocatively described the Ansarullah’s drone strike on Aramco’s oil facilities last weekend as an “act of war“, thus making many observers fear that his country and the Saudis are plotting a reciprocal response against them and their Iranian political supporters that both also blame for complicity in the attack, therefore potentially leading to a larger regional conflict. There are reasons to doubt that such a scenario will actually transpire, but the arguments thereof will be explained after elaborating on the hypocrisy of the “act of war” pronouncement.

It was the Saudis, not the Ansarullah, that initiated the international dimension of the War on Yemen out of their serious concern that this rebel group’s rapid successes in the neighboring country would eventually lead to their Iranian rival making military inroads on their doorstep (whether conventional or more likely unconventional) if its political allies captured control of the coast. The Saudis, however, sold their intervention to the public as an attempt to restore Hadi’s internationally recognized government to power following his request for military assistance to this end, which was technically true but didn’t officially touch on the Iranian angle even though the authorities have since emphasized it to the extreme.

Seeing as how no evidence has emerged in the past 4,5 years to corroborate the Saudis’ suspicions about Iran’s future plans to tilt the regional balance of power against it in the event that the Ansarullah were to have taken full control of Yemen, it can be said that their formal intervention was predicated on the concept of “preemptive war” to offset that seemingly impending scenario that they convinced themselves (whether rightly or wrongly) was on the brink of unfolding had they not actively thwarted it. Critics allege that perspective is nothing more than the paranoid delusions of a crumbling Kingdom, but it should be pointed out that Iran has never made a secret of exporting its Islamic Revolution, with its justification for going on the counter-offensive against Iraq in the First Gulf War of the 1980s being a case in point that continues to send chills down the back of its royalist rivals. They, however, weren’t completely innocent in that sense either because they fully supported Iraq’s war of aggression against Iran, as did many other countries in the world at that time including interestingly also the US and USSR. The reason why so many feared the Islamic Revolution is because it presented a credible “third way” for Muslim countries to follow in the Old Cold War and thus upset bipolarity.

To simplify a very complex series of events, the 1979 Islamic Revolution set off a regional — and to an extent, even a global — security dilemma that continues to influence International Relations to this day, most recently when forming the implied basis behind the Saudis’ “preemptive” War on Yemen that eventually led to the Ansarullah asymmetrically responding out of self-defense through their massive drone strike against Aramco’s oil facilities last weekend. Even in the unlikely event that Iran somehow contributed to the attack through logistics, military, or other forms of support like the US and Saudi Arabia allege, that wouldn’t change the fact that it would have been a response to the Hybrid War that those two have been incessantly waging against it since 1979 and which markedly intensified in nearly the past 1,5 years since the imposition of the anti-Iranian sanctions. Even so, many observers fear that the US and Saudi Arabia are prepared to strike (back at?) Iran and ominously climb the conventional escalation ladder to dangerously new heights, but while that certainly can’t be discounted, there are valid reasons for arguing that it probably won’t happen owing to Iran’s control of the asymmetrical escalation one that could impose unacceptable costs to them and the world if that ever occurs.

Irrespective of whether there really was a secret Iranian hand behind the Aramco attack or not, few doubt that the country has the drone and missile capabilities to turn that incident into child’s play and carry out something far more devastating if it were ever attacked. The US’ Patriot missiles failed to intercept the Ansarullah’s ten drones, revealing a glaring regional security shortcoming that therefore means that practically every oil processing facility in the Gulf is vulnerable to this sort of attack unless they’re able to rapidly improve their defensive capabilities, which can’t realistically happen for some time even if they were to purchase Russia’s S-400s and anti-drone equipment to complement or partially replace their inefficient American systems. World-renowned geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar is correct in predicting that

“The real reason there would be no ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz (author’s note: if the US and Saudi Arabia attack Iran) is that there would be no oil in the Gulf left to pump. The oil fields, having been bombed, would be burning”, which would collapse the Gulf economies and also instantly trigger the world’s worst economic crisis in history.

With this in mind, a US-Saudi strike on Iran would be an actual “act of war” against both their target itself and the rest of the world.

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This article was originally published on OneWorld.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

Le Monde Describes Yemeni Attack on Saudi’s Aramco as Terrible Humiliation to Bin Salman

Source

September 19, 2019

The French Newspaper Le Monde considered that the raid on two major Saudi facilities, which Riyadh ‘blamed on Tehran’, was a humiliation and an affront to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the nationalist brigade.

In a report by veteran reporter Benjamin Bart, the paper said Saudi Arabia is now embarrassed, and hopes today that the propaganda film it published in 2017 describing its overwhelming response to Tehran, was not filmed at all.

Bart says the video he has seen so far has seen more than 1.5 million people mimic a video game that Saudi Arabia is occupying Iran and destroying its military bases, before Revolutionary Guards commanders can confront invading forces or fire any bullet, all with cheers from the Iranian people and welcoming King Salman’s soldiers.

Bart said that the Saudi press at the time described the scenario of this propaganda video as “realistic”, starting with a speech by Mohammed bin Salman, saying: “We will not wait for the arrival of war in Saudi Arabia, we will ensure that the battle is taking place inside Iran itself.”

Terrible humiliation

Under the title “Terrible Humiliation,” Bart said that the tone of this film was characterized by recklessness, chauvinism and impulsivity, which revealed a hardening of Saudi diplomacy against Iran, and its aggressive stiffness, a turn embodied by the young crown prince, the architect of the war on Yemen, who believes that confronting Iran is necessary because of Intervention in Arab affairs, according to the author.

But less than two years after the publication of the film, the reality is striking, but contrary to what the writers of the screenplay had coveted, the Saudi air defense system could not respond to an attack on the Kingdom’s largest refinery, Abqaiq and the nearby Khuwairis oil field. On Saturday, September 14, it was a terrible insult to the crown prince, the patron of Saudi nationalism, the writer said.

“This is a severe blow to the credibility of Saudi Arabia in the face of Westerners,” Bart was quoted as saying by a well-known foreign businessman in Riyadh.

The operation, which the US State Department has accused Iran of being behind and halving Saudi oil production, is a real pretext for war.

However, Bart says Saudi Arabia does not really want to go to war with its ‘big enemy’, and, apart from the video’s promises, bin Salman seems to have gone into hiding for the time being and refraining from pointing fingers at Tehran, even if no one is in Riyadh. Suspected of being involved.

Sizing bin Salman

“What happened on Saturday was a big shock and an insult to Saudi Arabia,” Bart told a Saudi journalist. “No one imagined that Iran would dare to strike. Bin Salman is in an unenviable position. He finds himself alone today against Iran.”

Neither the United States wants to go to war with Iran, nor Riyadh’s other ally, Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi media are simply counting the phone calls Saudi Arabia has received since the day of the attack, but in fact no country is ready to engage in a confrontation with Iran. Jasmine Farouk, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment.

Analysts do not expect the US military response to go beyond an electronic attack or deploy more anti-missile systems. In fact, according to one expert in Saudi affairs, “Bin Salman is in a strategic dilemma, because he does not have the necessary resources for his political ambitions,” according to Barth’s report.

In the end, Bart questioned whether King Salman would take this opportunity to reframe his crown prince and curtail his role, noting that what King Salman would say in this regard will give an idea of the extent of weakness suffered by Mohammed bin Salman.

Source: Websites

Criminal insanity

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2019

Source

The worst thing for the Saudis isn’t that the Houthis managed the attack – which raises a lot of issues, with the bonus of Schadenfreude – but that the Houthis managed the attack from a base in a Shi’ite area of Saudi Arabia itself!

Added: How the Houthis overturned the chessboard” (Escobar):

“The situation has now reached a point where there’s plenty of chatter across the Persian Gulf about a spectacular scenario: the Houthis investing in a mad dash across the Arabian desert to capture Mecca and Medina in conjunction with a mass Shiite uprising in the Eastern oil belt. That’s not far-fetched anymore. Stranger things have happened in the Middle East. After all, the Saudis can’t even win a bar brawl – that’s why they rely on mercenaries.”

and:

“My conversations with sources in Tehran over the past two years have ascertained that the Houthis’ new drones and missiles are essentially copies of Iranian designs assembled in Yemen itself with crucial help from Hezbollah engineers.”

Exhibition of Houthi military-industrial achievements” (The Saker, from July, so it is not like MbS had no warning).

Tweet (Scott Ritter):

The Houthi spent less than $100,000 to cripple 50% of Saudi oil production, easily repaired. If the US/Saudi Team opts to attack Iran, Iran will take out 100% of Saudi oil production, never to be full repaired. That would be the death of the al-Saud family, which means no war.

I hope Bibi manages to pull off another deal with another devil, as he has been a spectacular success, despite some superficial nonsense, in wrecking the Zionist project.  I believe the deep reason for his current problems is his failure at the long-term project of killing people and stealing their land, which is after all the quintessence of the Khazars.  You have to wonder if Bibi’s failure with Putin – another classic Bibi Hail Mary, so to speak, to prove how essential he is to the killing and land theft – was the factor which decided the election:  “Russia prevents Israeli airstrikes in Syria” (Okbi) (see also).

Trudeau in blackface (which the Canadian media was calling ‘brownface’, for some reason):  “Photos surface of Justin Trudeau wearing black makeup at two previous events” (Carrigg).  He had just finished announcing a campaign promise that would amount to a form of guaranteed annual income for low-income parents:  “Roundup: Sweetening the newborn benefits”.  The deal is that the more pressure is on the Liberals, the more they will be inclined to move left, so we need to see a lot more of this kind of thing.  Canada has oodles of money to spend on Canadians; the Liberals just have to be forced to get around their ‘donors’ disinclination to do so.

We’re reached the ‘blame the third-world pilots’ level of the Boeing PR campaign (which was the first approach as well):  “Langewiesche: “What Really Brought Down the Boeing 737 Max?”” (Sailer).  Unstated is the reason the US uniquely has all these kick-ass pilots who can fight through incompetent Boeing engineering and ergonomics – the skills learned in dropping bombs on wedding parties and other brown people in fighting the infinite number of Wars For The Jews (the slogan should be, as always:  ‘Khazars, are there no limits to what they do for us?’).  Of course, also unstated is that the FAA – ‘captured’ by Boeing, as they say in the study of administrative law – is as equally guilty for the problem as Boeing, and is now given the task to provide the PR basis to allow Boeing to ‘fix’ the problem partly created by the FAA, without noticing the problem.  It remains a mystery of why any non-American airlines would have anything to do with this shambles.

Why on Earth Would the US Go to War with Iran over an Attack on Saudi Oil Refineries?” (Lindorff).  Lots of questions like this that we’re not supposed to even think about.  Like, why would the US spend trillions of dollars of wealth and basically wreck itself as a country all so 2% of its population can have an arguably slightly better chance of killing people and stealing their land?  These questions are why we need to realize that American politics is run through the blackmail of American politicians by Jewish gangsters.

Ha ha ha ha ha, ‘editing error’:  “Mish Blasts NYT Kavanaugh Smear: “Editorial Mistake My Ass””.  There must be some kind of JYT hot key which automatically produces ‘pushed his penis into her hand’ which was accidentally hit, and nobody actually read the article in editing it!  The funniest/saddest thing is that this kind of serial lying completely defangs any political reality that might have existed behind the piece.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I’m proud to announce the winner of the prestigious Khazar of the Year Award:  “MIT scientist RESIGNS after he appeared to defend Jeffrey Epstein and claimed sex assault victim Virginia Giuffre was likely ‘entirely willing’ in alleged rape case” (Saunders) and “Renowned MIT Scientist Defends Epstein: Victims Were ‘Entirely Willing’” (Montgomery) and “Remove Richard Stallman” (Selam G.).  #Metoo, that most anti-Semitic of programs, doesn’t seem to have registered at all.  In fact, the whole concept of ‘consent’ seems utterly baffling to the Khazars.  No matter how sophisticated they might seem, they have demonstrated time and time again (see also, Dersh) that they are an extremely primitive people.

Khazars, are there no limits to what they do for us?:  “B.C. going after family behind OxyContin producer Purdue Pharma” (Vikander). Hard to pierce that corporate veil unless there was a scheme to avoid creditors (which there clearly was).

Israel Spies and Spies and Spies” (Giraldi).  So blackmailed you can’t even acknowledge it when they are caught red handed!

US Attorney General Barr invokes “state secrets” to cover up Saudi involvement in 9/11″ (Grey).  Oh, come on, this is part of the weird dance of the seven veils going back to Bob Graham!  Much as I hate the Saudis, they were patsies used to cover American government involvement and to provide some pressure on the Saudi government should it be needed.  The CIA/State Department were handing out visas like candy to fake identity ‘Saudis’ through the US consulate in Jeddah:  “Visas for Al Qaeda: CIA Handouts That Rocked The World – An Insider’s View.” (Springmann/Faulkner).

One thing about these beshekeled ‘journalists’ in the (((media))), constantly shilling for Wars For The Jews, is that they have absolutely no self-awareness, and haven’t learned a thing:  tweet (Max Blumenthal) (Werleman’s shtick is that he is ‘anti-Islamophobic’):

A dunderheaded ex-Islamophobe who cheered on genocidal Salafi-jihadis rampaging through Syria wants to ruin our lives for diverging from the NATO/Qatari/AKP line. Watch how @cjwerleman nearly ruined his own with countless instances of blatant plagiarism: youtu.be/EIPBVRwjOlE

The little victory tour through Syria of some of the woke journalists is making the al Qaeda/ISIS shills really mad.

‘Hunter Wallace’ continues his attacks on The Daily Stormer, Anglin, and, in particular, weev, and  The Stormer did go offline but is back again (the paradox for Anglin is he can save the site if he denounces weev, but seems to need weev to run and finance the site):

  1. Daily Stormer Goes Offline”;
  2. Daily Stormer: Andre Anglin’s Jailbait Girlfriend”;
  3. Daily Stormer: Weev’s History As An “Anti-Semite Hunter””;
  4. Daily Stormer: The iProphet Rabbi Weevlos”;
  5. Daily Stormer: Response To Infostormer”;
  6. Daily Stormer: When Did You Realize Daily Stormer Was A Fake Website?”
  7. Pity The Stormer”: and;
  8. Ahab: Azzmador Was Chanting “Free Dylann Roof” At Charlottesville”.

Tweet (Samael):

Is it just me or does the irish president look like danny devito playing bernie sanders

Iran vs Saudi Arabia: it’s game-over

Image result for attack on ARAMCO

September 19, 2019

by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog

Is the attack on ARAMCO the first of a long war or is it game-over already? It seems like the latter and in more ways than one, the war between Iran and Saudi Arabia has ended before it even started. One single solitary Houthi attack on Aramco has sent Saudi oil exports tumbling down by half; not to mention a 20% hike on the price of crude.

Now, even though the Houthis have declared responsibility for the ARAMCO attack, the Trump administration wants the world to buy the idea that it was Iran who launched the attack, not the Houthis. https://sputniknews.com/us/201909191076835893-pompeo-attack-saudi-oil-facilities-act-war-iran/. This far, at least Japan seems unconvinced, and so is France https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201909191076835540-japan–no-evidence-iran-behind-attack-saudi-aramco-facilities/

In reality however, the resolve of Saudi Arabia and its capability to stand up and fight has little to do with the identity of the attacker, and this is because Saudi Arabia has demonstrated that it didn’t take much for it to suffer what it suffered. This begs the question; how many such similar attacks can Saudi Arabia weather before it totally capitulates? Seemingly, not many.

In a previous article, I anticipated such scenarios because the Saudi economy and infrastructure are highly vulnerable. A country that has virtually one major wealth-producing base (ie oil) and just a few desalination plants that pump fresh water into its major cities, is a very soft target indeed. After all, if those handful of vital targets are hit, not only oil exports will stop, but water will stop running in households. http://thesaker.is/dissecting-the-unfathomable-american-iranian-war/. But the water desalination plants do not have to suffer a direct hit for them to stop running. They need power to run, and the power comes from fuel, and if the fuel supplies stop, so will they, and so will electricity-generating plants in a nation that cannot survive without air-conditioning.

Up until recently, people of Arabia were used to drought, brackish water and searing heat. They lived in and around oases and adopted a lifestyle that used little water. But, the new generation of Saudis and millions of expats are used to daily showers, potable water and climate control in their households. During wars, people normally go to nature to find food and water. They hunt, they fish, they collect local berries and edible wild plants, they fill jars from running rivers and streams, they grow their own vegetables in their backyards, but in Saudi Arabia, in the kingdom of sand, such alternatives do not exist at all.

Furthermore, with a population that has swelled from a few million in the 1950’s, the current population of Saudi Arabia stands at 33 million, and this includes the millions of expats who work and live there

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Saudi_Arabia. The limited supply of brackish water is not enough to get by until any damaged infrastructure is fixed, and it’s not even piped to begin with.

As the nation with the third highest global defence budget, higher than Russia’s, Saudi Arabia continues to import everything from Patriot Missiles all the way down to bullets.

This is in sharp contrast with Iran’s geography, natural assets and demography. Iran is a nation of mountains, valleys and rivers, meadows, thriving agriculture and 70 million citizens who have been taught to be innovative and self-sufficient; courtesy of US-imposed sanctions.

And to say that the ARAMCO target was hit by surprise would be quite absurd and inexcusable given that Saudi Arabia is already in a state of war with Yemen, and especially given that the Yemeni aerial strikes have been escalating in recent months. To make the situation even more embarrassing for the Saudis; the spectre of war with Iran is currently hot on the agenda, so how could key Saudi installations be unprotected?

But here’s the other thing, had it been truly Iran that was responsible for the attack as the Trump administration alleges and wants us to believe, America would then be admitting that Iranian missiles flew from mainland Iran, across the Gulf, managed to dodge American defences and state-of-the-art detection hardware and software, and effectively reached their target on Saudi soil. If this is the scenario Trump wants us to believe, what does this say about the capability of America to engage militarily with Iran? This is a much bigger farce than that of Russia-gate; a claim that Russia can indeed affect the outcome of the presidential elections of the allegedly “greatest and strongest nation on earth”. Do such claims mean that America’s adversaries are extremely organised, smart and strong or that America is in disarray, stupid and weak; or both? Either way, when such claims are perpetrated by none but America itself, they certainly do not put America in a good light.

The weaknesses and vulnerabilities of Saudi Arabia and Big Brother are only matched by the other ally, the UAE. As a matter of fact Houthis spokesperson Yahia Saria gave the Emirates a stern warning if they want to protect their glass skyscrapers. https://www.rt.com/news/469104-houthis-new-drones-attack-uae/ . In his address, Saria is perhaps giving a tongue-in-cheek reference to the Arabic proverb which says that if one’s house is made of glass, he should not cast rocks at others. After years of indiscriminate shelling under the watchful and indifferent eyes of the world, after years of ruthlessly trying to starve the Yemenis into submission, why would one expect the Houthis to exercise any mercy towards their aggressors?

But let us face it, Dubai and other thriving metropolises of the UAE are predestined to morph into ghost towns. It is only a question of time before they run out of their current charm and their fake onion skin deep glitter. After all, there is nothing in those fantasy cities that is real, substantial and self-sustaining. If anything, a war with Iran has the potential to fast-track the decay process and leave foreign investors and expats exiting in droves; if not running for their lives.

Ironically, the American/Saudi/UAE alliance, if it is indeed an alliance, accuses Iran of spreading its dominion over the region; and perhaps there is evidence to support this accusation. However, the alliance seems to conveniently forget that it was its own orchestrated invasion of Iraq and toppling of Saddam that created a power vacuum in Iraq that was soon filled by Iran. And even though the eight-year long and bitter Iran-Iraq war ended up with no winners or losers, the fall of Saddam at the hands of the American/Arab alliance has turned Iran into the virtual winner that the same alliance is now trying to curb. How more ironic can this farcical situation be?

America plays down the strength of Iran’s Army, and Iran does the opposite. This is normal and part-and-parcel of the psychological warfare. In reality however, no one knows for certain what is Iran’s military capability. For this reason, any all-out confrontation with Iran may at least initially sway America to move its vessels out of the Gulf and further away from the reach of short-range Iranian missiles until and if they feel confident to move closer at a later stage. However, Saudi ground and key and vital ground targets cannot be moved, and for Iran to only be able to hit a few that can be counted on the fingers of one hand, can lead to a total Saudi/UAE capitulation.

Whilst no one knows Iran’s real strength, what we do know is that Saudi Arabia has failed abysmally in defeating the much weaker, poorer, underprivileged starving people of Yemen.

America will not commit boots on the ground and, to this effect, has little to lose apart from risking naval vessels. The soft targets will be Saudi and UAE key infrastructures and no Patriot defence systems will be able to intercept all missiles poised to hit them. If the Houthis could do it, it is a given that Iran also can.

I have recently watched the series “The Vietnam War” on Netflix, and I remembered how back then when the truth about that war was exposed, I believed that American hawks would never get away with lying to their people and the rest of the world again, or ever invade another country in the way that they did with Vietnam. In less than two decades however, they moved full throttle into Iraq, and the masses believed their story. Perhaps some things will never change, and after the losses in Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, America seems still determined to fight Iran. This time around, the biggest loser may not end up to be America itself, but its Arab allies; namely Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the recent attack on ARAMCO is only a prelude to an inevitable outcome, because the writing is already on the wall and it clearly reads: GAME-OVER.

 

Zarif: Military strike on Iran will lead to ‘all-out war’ in region

Press Tv

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif says a possible military strike against his country by the United States or Saudi Arabia will unleash an “all-out” war in the region.

Iran’s top diplomat made the remarks in an exclusive interview with the CNN in Tehran on Thursday.

Asked what the consequence of a US or Saudi military strike on Iran would be, Zarif said: “All-out war.”

“I make a very serious statement about defending our country. I am making a very serious statement that we don’t want to engage in a military confrontation,” Zarif said, adding that a military response based on “deception” about the weekend attacks on Saudi oil installations would cause “a lot of casualties.”

“…We won’t blink to defend our territory,” Iran’s foreign minister emphasized.

Javad Zarif

@JZarif

On @CNN, I emphasized that here’s no such thing as a “limited strike”. Iran does NOT want war, but we will NOT hesitate to defend ourselves.

Also, Yemenis, under brutal attack for yrs, have powerful motivation to build what it takes to defend themselves.https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/19/middleeast/iran-zarif-saudi-intl/index.html 

Exclusive: Zarif threatens ‘all out war’ in case of military strike on Iran

In an exclusive interview with CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh, Zarif raised the specter of ‘all out war’ in case of a US or Saudi military strike on the country.

cnn.com

786 people are talking about this
Tensions started to rise between Iran and Saudi Arabia after a group of Yemeni drones hit two oil facilities of Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco in the country’s east, causing huge fires before dawn on Saturday.

A spokesman for Saudi Arabia’s Interior Ministry said in a statement that the attacks targeted two Aramco factories in Abqaiq and Khurais, without specifying the source of the attacks. However, Yemen’s Houthi movement later claimed responsibility in an announcement on Al Masirah TV. The movement’s military spokesman, General Yahya Sare’e, said 10 drones were deployed against the sites in Abqaiq and Khurais, and pledged to widen the range of attacks on Saudi Arabia.

On Sunday, Riyadh admitted that Yemen’s drone strikes had shut down about 50 percent of the kingdom’s crude and gas production, with the United States rushing to point the finger at Iran for the raids without providing any evidence.

In a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) on the same day, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman acknowledged that the attacks on Aramco refineries in Abqaiq and Khurais had cut the state oil giant’s crude oil supply by around 5.7 million barrels per day, or about 50 percent of its output.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took to Twitter to put the blame for Saturday’s operation on Iran, claiming, “Tehran is behind nearly 100 attacks on Saudi Arabia” and that “there is no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.”

On Wednesday, Pompeo who was in Riyadh to discuss the matter with Saudi officials described the attack on Saudi oil facilities as “an act of war” that knocked out more than half the kingdom’s oil production.

Elsewhere in his interview with the CNN, Zarif said Iran hoped to avoid conflict, adding that the country was willing to talk to regional countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

He once again denied Tehran’s involvement in attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, saying that Yemen’s Ansarullah movement, which claimed responsibility for the attack, has stepped up its military capabilities and is now capable of conducting a sophisticated operation such as the one that knocked out half of the kingdom’s energy production.

“I know that we didn’t do it. I know that the Houthis made a statement that they did it,” Zarif said.

‘No US talks unless all sanctions removed’

Zarif was also asked about the possibility of negotiations between the Iran and the administration of US President Donald Trump, dismissing such possibility and nothing that there would be no negotiations between the two sides unless the US gave Iran the full sanctions relief promised under the nuclear deal.

Trump pulled his country out of the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in May 2018, and re-imposed a host of unilateral sanctions on the Islamic Republic that had been lifted after the deal was reached between Tehran and the P5+1 group of countries in 2015, which at that time included the United States, the UK, France, Russia, and China plus German.

“(The JCPOA) is an agreement that we reached with the United States. Why should we renegotiate? Why should we start something else, which may again be invalid in a year and a half,” Zarif said, adding, “If they lift the sanctions that they re-imposed illegally, then that’s a different situation… Then we would consider (talks).”

Zarif was echoing previous remarks by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, who said in a public meeting on Tuesday that talks with Iran would be possible only if the US returned to the nuclear deal.

“If the US retracts its words, repents and returns to the nuclear accord that it has violated, it can then take part in sessions of other signatories to the deal and hold talks with Iran… Otherwise, no talks at any level will be held between Iranian and American authorities, neither in New York nor elsewhere.”

The Leader, however, emphasized that under the present circumstances, Iran would not engage in negotiations with the United States “at any level,” and that Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign against the Iranian nation has failed to achieve its goals.

Ayatollah Khamenei said entering talks with the US under these circumstances would be tantamount to surrendering to Washington’s undue pressure campaign.

“Negotiating would mean Washington imposing its demands on Tehran. It would also be a manifestation of the victory of America’s maximum pressure campaign,” the Leader noted, adding, “That is why Iranian officials — including the president, the foreign minister and others — have unanimously voiced their objection to any talks with the US — be it in a bilateral or a multilateral setting.”

If Iran behind attack, ‘US military worthless’ – Tehran prof

 

If Iran behind attack, ‘US military worthless’ – Tehran prof

September 18, 2019

Yemen’s Armed Forces: Dozens of Targets in UAE’s Abu Dhabi and Dubai Will Be Certainly Struck If It Doesn’t Quit Saudi-led Aggression

September 18, 2019

manar-06921090015530248396

Spokesman of the Yemeni armed forces general Yehya Sarea briefed the media outlets on the details of the drone attack which targeted Saudi oil facility of Aramco, stressing that the losses were more than those acknowledged.

General Sarea clarified that Sammad 3, Qasef and jet drones were used in the attack, adding that they were launched from three positions.

General Sarea highlighted the Yemeni professionalism at producing drones, pointing out that the armed forces will never hesitate to use them in future attacks.

In this context, General Sarea called on UAE to quit the Saudi-led aggression on Yemen, warning that otherwise dozens of targets in the various emirates, including Abu Dhabi and Dubai will be certainly struck.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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Crises – the Middle-East and a few hopefully useful pointers

The Saker

September 18, 2019

Crises – the Middle-East and a few hopefully useful pointers

[This analysis was written for the Unz Review]

The Middle-East is literally exploding: the Houthis have delivered an extremely effective blow against Saudi oil production which (so they claim) has now dropped by 50% before bouncing back; there are persistent rumors that Russian Su-35S and S-400 has threatened to shoot down Israeli aircraft attacking Syria; Lebanon has declared that it will defend itself against Israeli attacks; Hezbollah has been threatening to deliver crippling strikes on Israel and even Israeli officials; Turkey has purchased Russian air defenses and says that if the USA refuses to deliver their F-35S, then Turkey will consider Su-35s and even maybe Su-57’s.  Bibi Netanyahu tried to use Putin for his reelection campaign (well, he really is trying desperately to stay out of jail) but had to go home empty handed and, according to the JP, his mission was a failure.

Finally, and just to make sure that the crises are only limited to the Middle-East: the Polaks and the EU Court have successfully sued to try to force Russia to use the Ukie gas transit; the USA is invoking ancient treaties to threaten Venezuela; the UK is going to hell in a handbasket; Europe (well, Germany) can’t even get the Polaks to heel about North Stream 2 (well, they *are* heeling, of course, but to Uncle Shmuel, not Angela Merkel); India and Pakistan are threatening one another over Kashmir. Did I forget anything?

Oh yes, the DPRK is firing new missiles; the US wants to blame Iran for the Houthi attacks; China categorically rejects such accusations, while Russia continues to announce new revolutionary weapons built on new principles and plans to deploy the S-500 “Prometheus”, just to make sure the Empire does not get any stupid ideas about trying to strike Russia (or her allies which will begin purchasing the S-500 in 2021, according official sources).

I am sure I have forgotten plenty.  Really, the Empire is collapsing on all fronts and that, in turn, means the chances that the ignorant dimwits in the White House will do something very stupid, dramatically increase.

Yes, I know, Bolton was fired.  And I applaud that, but considering that I believe that Pompeo is even more delusional and evil than Bolton (not to mention fantastically arrogant!), that is hardly a reason to hope (I just read that Robert C. O’Brien will succeed Bolton; he used to be the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs at the State Department; I wonder if that means even more kidnappings of Russian nationals worldwide…?).

There is so much to cover here that I will limit myself to a few points about the Middle-East which I think are important.

First, the partial destruction of the most important Saudi oil facilities is a HUGE embarrassment for the US.  Remember that the KSA is really the “center” of CENTCOM and even the reason for its existence (to “protect” Iran from the USSR and officially keep the Shah safe, but in reality this was also part of a major deal between the USA the KSA: “you accept payment only in dollars and we will protect you against everybody“).  Sure, there is a long list of western stooges to which a similar promise was made, including Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Manuel Noriega, Hosni Mubarak and many others; most are now dead, the rest in jail (iirc).  Now its the turn of the Saudis it seems: not only could the super-duper “better than the S-300” patriots not stop the Houthis, all of the combined might of CENTCOM failed too.

Second, I can only concur with ‘b’ at Moon of Alabama – the war is over for the KSA. Whether they realize it or not makes no difference.  Okay, it will make a difference in time, but in time only.  The Saudis and their AngloZionist patrons have three solutions:

  1. Continue pretty much like before: that is the definition of insanity if different results are expected.
  2. Escalate and strike Iran, following which the entire Middle-East will explode with dramatic consequences.
  3. Do what the US always does: declare victory and leave.

Obviously, the third option is the only sensible one, but who said that Bibi, Trump or MbS are sensible at all?  Tulsi Gabbard joined me in calling Trump somebody’s bitch, except I call him an Israeli bitch whereas Gabbard calls him a Saudi bitch.  Same difference!

There is, however, one restraining factor: if Trump ever strikes Iran he will become the “disposable President” for the Neocons: Iran will use the opportunity to strike Israel and Trump will be impeached for it (the Neocons are, after all, in total control of the DNC and many key committees in Congress).

So this will all boil down to Trump and whether he has the info and brains to realize that an attack on Iran will wreck his Presidency (which is already FUBARed enough and attacking Iran will make it official) and he will be both impeached and, obviously, never reelected.

Third, could the Houthis have done it themselves?  Absolutely yes. Iran did not have to strike directly, precisely because the Houthis were capable of doing it themselves. Check out this official exhibit of Houthi ballistic missiles and drones and see for yourself here and here.  Furthermore, the Houthis are becoming very similar to Hezbollah and they have clearly learned advanced missile and drone capabilities (from Iran, which is why the Israelis and the US are so angry).  Now I am not, repeat, NOT saying that Iran did not help or that this strike would have been as successful had Iran not provided intelligence, targeting, technical expertise, etc.  But if there is any evidence of direct Iranian involvement, let this “malevolent manatee” (which is how Fred Reed referred to Pompeo) show it to the world, and it better be better than the crap they showed for Skripal or the chemical false flags in Syria.

Fourth, what this means for the KSA and their AngloZionist patrons is that the Houthis can strike anywhere inside the KSA with total impunity.  And not only in the KSA.  Furthermore, I suspect that Iran can also hit every single oil or gas related facility in the Middle-East just like it can strike every US/CENTCOM/NATO/Israeli objective it wants.  Furthermore, in case of total war in the Middle-East, you can expect missiles raining down on US facilities not only from Yemen (Houthis) and Lebanon (Hezbollah) but also potentially from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

Fifth, it really does not matter where or what the US and/or Saudis and/or Israelis fire at Iran, the response will be the same, at least according to Professor Marandi: it will be massive and the oil and gas export capability of the entire Middle-East will be threatened.  There is no safe, cheap or effective way to strike Iran.  But do the folks in DC realize that?

Next, I want to offer a few points about the alleged interception of Israeli F-35 by Russian Su-35S over Syria.

First, we really don’t have the facts, so let’s wait a little.  Most stories about this come from one Arabic online paper.  Now, in the last 24 hours there was “sort of kinda” confirmation from Russia, but not from officials, and these reports were not so much giving factual details as gloating that Netanyahu walked away from Russia with nothing.

Second, my best guess is that this story is probably based on reality.  The Israelis have been behaving as if they did not care about the Russian presence in Syria: so they engage in airstrikes exclusively for PR purposes (remember, Bibi wants to avoid jail!) and the Russians probably complained and were ignored, and now they’ve had enough.

Third, the fact that the Jerusalem Post had to published a horrified article about this event conclusively proves that those who were trying to convince us that Russia and Israel were working hand in hand and that Putin was Bibi’s best friend were, well, full of crapola and their clickbait was just that: clickbait.

Fourth, there are those technology buffs who will always try to prove that the Su-35S is vastly superior to the F-35 and that this story is very credible and those who will explain that the F-35 is vastly superior to the Su-35S and that this story is pure invention.  The truth is that it is useless and meaningless to compare two advanced aircraft “in the abstract” or declare that one is so much better than the other.  Okay, yes, the Su-35S is superior in many aspects to the F-35, but most definitely not in all possible scenarios.  In fact, we would also need to know what other aircraft were in the air at the time – including AWACs, SEAD and EW – and we would need to find out exactly what role the Russian S-400s played (if any).  Generally, I urge you not to engage in a) “bean-counting” (only looking at quantities) or in b) making direct combat aircraft comparisons.  In the latter case, we would need to know what kind (and how much) of training the pilots got, what kind of weapons they had, what kind of sensors they used and how, and more generally, exactly how the Israelis decided to structure their attack and how the Russians decided to respond.  Finally, we would have to get some detail on sensor fusing, network-centric operations, datalinks, etc.  Since we know nothing about any of that, I recommend that we don’t dwell on aircraft/radar/missile X vs aircraft/radar/missile Y.  It’s just not worth it.

Fifth, there are already rumors about this being a false flag operation of the Israelis, the British, the KSA or the US.  Well, I sure can’t prove a negative, but I see no compelling reason to make such conclusions.  First, this is really bad news for the Empire and, second, the Houthis have done similar actions many times in the past and there is no reason to suspect that they could not have done what they did.  Still, it is also undeniable that any hike in oil prices benefits a lot of people (USA shale, Russia, the KSA, etc.).  Finally, there is always and by definition the risk of the Israelis and their Neocon allies pulling off some kind of false flag to finally trigger a US attack on Iran.  All these are, however, only indirect arguments, at least so far.  The fact that a false flag is possible does not mean it actually happened, let’s never forget that and never drop to premature or unfounded conclusions.

Sixth, let’s look at the targets themselves.  We are talking about oil facilities, huge ones, which under the logic of US/NATO/Israel (aka the “Axis of Kindness”) is most definitely classified as “regime support infrastructure” or something similar.  Furthermore, even under non Axis of Kindness logic, the laws of war allow strikes on infrastructures critical to the enemy’s military effort.  So while TV stations, embassies or medical factories are NOT legal targets, critical oil facilities are.  The ONLY stipulation is that the attacking side make an honest effort in selecting targets and munitions and try to avoid avoidable casualties.  As far as I know, the Saudis have mentioned zero victims.  Yes, that is unlikely, but that is how things stand for the time being. In this case, the Houthi strike was absolutely legitimate, especially considering the kind of genocidal devastation the Axis of Kindness and the KSA have unleashed against Yemen.

Lastly, I will venture a guess as to why the US and Saudi air defense were so useless: they probably never expected an attack from Yemen, at least not such a sophisticated one.  Most of the US/KSA air defenses are deployed to defend against an attack from Iran, from the northern direction.  The fact that this strike was so successful strongly suggest that it came from the south, from Yemen.

Conclusion: (Sept 18th, 1816Z)

I was about to conclude that according to RT, the Saudi Oil Minister has declared that the KSA “don’t know yet who is responsible” and that this was good news.  Then I saw this: “Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of sponsoring oil-plant attack, says it ‘couldn’t have originated in Yemen“, also on RT.  Not good.  Not credible either.

For one thing, had it been Iran, the strike would have been far more massive and would have only been a part of a much bigger, full-scale, attack not only on Saudi oil facilities, but also on all crucial CENTCOM installations and forces.  There is no way the Iranians would have opened major hostilities (and these strikes were definitely described by the Saudis as “major”) just to wait for a massive US/KSA/Israeli retaliation.  The Iranians are most certainly not going to repeat Saddam Hussein’s crucial mistake and allow the US/CENTCOM/NATO/Israel/KSA the time needed to prepare for a massive attack on Iran.  I am monitoring various “indicators and warnings” which would suggest that the USA is up to no good, and so far I have noticed only one potentially worrying event: MSC Sealift and US transportation Command  has ordered a no-notice turbo activation of between 23 to 25 ships from the 46 ship Ready Reserve Force (RRF have to be 5-day ready).  This is an unprecedented number since 2003 and it could mean somebody just taking precautions or someone is getting twitchy. But the timing is usually September, but not in this number (more about this here).  But please keep in mind that such indicators cannot be considered in isolation from other facts. Should there be more, I will do my best to report them on the blog.

The fact that US/KSA air defenses performed so miserably does not mean that the USA is totally clueless about ‘whodunit’. There are a lot of other sensors and systems (including in space) which will detect a missile launch (especially a ballistic missile!) and there are some radar modes which allow for long-range detection but not necessarily capable of track-while-scan or of long-range engagements.  Furthermore, you can also monitor data signals and general telemetry, and since the US has immense databases with the “signature” signals from all sorts of enemy hardware, they also probably could accurately assess which type of systems were used.  Just in this case, just as in the case of MH-17, the Pentagon knows exactly ‘whodunit’.  Ditto for the Russians who have a lot of SIGINT/FISINT in the Middle-East (and in space).

But in the last days of the Empire, facts don’t really matter.  What matters is whatever is seen as politically expedient by the folks in the White House and in Israel.  My biggest hope is that Trump finds out the truth about the strikes and that he has enough brains left to understand that should he strike Iran he will lose the election and will probably even be impeached to boot.

Let’s hope that his narcissistic instincts will save our long-suffering planet!

The Saker

“AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS FAIL ALL THE TIME”: POMPEO’S VISIT TO SAUDI ARABIA TURNED INTO THEATER OF ABSURD

"Air Defense Systems Fail All the Time": Pompeo's Visit To Saudi Arabia Turned Into Theater Of Absurd

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On September 18th, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that it was just normal for the Patriot missile defense system to fail in repelling the recent drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure.

“Look, anytime – we’ve seen air defense systems all around the world have mixed success.  Some of the finest in the world don’t always pick things up. We want to work to make sure that infrastructure and resources are put in place such that attacks like this would be less successful than this one appears to have been.  That’s certainly the case.”

He actually tried to paint the complete failure as something successful. He then, without being asked, moved on to defend the US move to leave the Iran Nuclear Deal, saying that if it didn’t Iran would’ve had missiles that could do that much earlier, and not 55 weeks from “now.”

“Fifty-five weeks from now, the whole world can sell exactly these missile systems, conventional missile systems to the Iranian Government unencumbered by any sanctions under the – 55 weeks, 55 weeks from now. Does anybody think that that was a genius idea to allow them to have the whole world be able to actually sell them missile systems?  They’d have more complex ones but for the sanctions we put in place that have prevented them from getting access to money, most importantly, but also parts, spare parts, information technology – all the things that go into building out production-level threats to the world.”

 

Of course, any other scenario than Iran being to blame is also completely unacceptable, Pompeo simply follows the narrative, any other reality is disregarded. After all, you can’t believe what Yemen’s Houthis (Ansar Allah) say.

“You say, “the Houthis said,” you should say, “the well-known, frequently lying Houthis have said the following.” This is important, because you ought not report them as if these are truth-tellers, as if these are people who aren’t completely under the boot of the Iranians, and who would not at the direction of the Iranians lay claim to attacks which they did not engage in, which clearly was the case here. So there you go.  Whenever you say “Houthis,” you should begin with “the well-known, frequently-known-to-lie Houthis.”  And then you can write whatever it is they say.  And you would have — that would be good reporting.”

Thank god Pompeo and Co. have never been known to lie.

Naturally, the questioning also went towards the way of how the Saudi-led coalition’s war in Yemen would come to an end. Pompeo’s answer had absolutely nothing in relation to the question he was asked:

“I know you care deeply about that, good reporting.  Let me just try and close out.  So we also know that these are systems that the Iranians have not deployed anyplace else, that they have not deployed outside of their country, to the best of our knowledge.  We’ve not seen them deploy these types of UAV systems with the kinds of ranges and capabilities, nor have we seen them place these missiles where they could have done it.  We’ve seen no evidence that it came from Iraq.  It could well have traveled over Kuwait.  We’ve not seen that either.”

He praised the reporting, then commented on something separate.

He further claimed that Saudi Arabian citizens and also Americans who are in the Kingdom were at risk by the attack on oil infrastructure, despite there being not a single person harmed in it. Possibly, but unlikely, Iran has devised some sort of state-of-the-art UAV that can identify specifically US citizens or some sort of American-seeking missile.

And his attempts to praise the Patriot missile by saying that other systems also sometimes fail is also expected. But, of course, no mention is made that between 1999 and 2018, the US had repeatedly used unrealistic decoys that misrepresent the performance of its systems, making it appear much more capable than they actually are. This was presented in a report by the Union of Concerned Scientists [pdf].

Furthermore, the Kingdom and the US would like to present it as if the attack on the oil infrastructure is a separate incident, but the truth is that Ansar Allah has repeatedly attacked military parades, as well as other oil facilities throughout the war, despite Saudi Arabian defense systems being specifically pointed in Ansar Allah’s direction.

And going back to the question of the war ending, even the Sudanese children soldiers that the Saudi-led coalition used against the Houthis said it.

“If it weren’t for us the Houthis would’ve captured Riyadh by now.”

Essentially Saudi Arabia lost war in Yemen.The only reason Ansar Allah hasn’t completely defeated the Saudi-led intervention is its limited arsenal.

This is where a reason to justify the US completely entering the conflict needs to be created.

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