It’s all in ‘Cypher’: How US exerted pressure on Pakistan to oust Khan

Aug 10, 2023

Source: The Intercept

Former PM of Pakistan Imran Khan speaks during a news conference in Shaukat Khanum Hospital in Lahore, Pakistan, on November 4, 2022 (AP)

By Al Mayadeen English

A confidential Pakistani government document acquired by The Intercept shows how the US State Department pressured the Pakistani government in March 2022 to oust Imran Khan due to his neutral position on Russia.

According to a classified document obtained by The Intercept, the US State Department pressured the Pakistani government to oust Imran Khan as prime minister due to his neutral stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The document, which details a meeting between Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States and two State Department officials, has been the subject of considerable scrutiny and discord in Pakistan over the last year and a half.

A court in Islamabad sentenced Khan to three years in jail, alongside disqualifying him from politics for “corrupt practices”.

Khan was escorted by police from his home in Lahore on Saturday, after a ruling in the Toshakaha case came out, in which he was accused of illegally selling gifts worth hundreds of millions of rupees originally intended for the state.

Khan’s supporters were enraged after his arrest in an alleged corruption case in May and protested for several days. The bloody violence that ensued amid the police crackdown did not subside until after Khan was released by order of the Supreme Court of Pakistan.

A no-confidence vote a month after the meeting with US officials led to Khan’s fall from power. The meeting included Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu and Asad Majeed Khan, then-ambassador to the US.

Known as “Cypher”, the never-seen-before Pakistani cable entails the itty-gritty tactics used by the US in its campaign against Khan, promising closer relations if Khan was removed. 

‘All to be forgiven’ in Washington

The paper was handed to The Intercept by an unnamed source in Pakistan’s military who claimed to have no links to Imran Khan or his party. The US organization published the contents with some minor corrections. 

The cable details how the meeting occurred two weeks after the war in Ukraine began, during which Khan was on his way to Moscow. The US rejected Khan’s position on the Ukraine war, a position that immediately changed after he was removed.

During a Senate hearing on March 2, days before the meeting, Lu was questioned regarding India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan’s neutrality over the Ukraine war. Lu responded to a question from Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., about Pakistan’s abstention from a UN resolution condemning Russia by stating that the US was “trying to figure out how to engage specifically with the Prime Minister following that decision.”

Van Hollen seemed unhappy that State officials were yet to contact Khan regarding his position on Russia.

A day before the meeting, Khan publicly questioned Europe’s demands that Pakistan should support Ukraine, stating, “Are we your slaves?”

“We are friends of Russia, and we are also friends of the United States. We are friends of China and Europe. We are not part of any alliance.”

According to the document, Lu was vocal about the US’ unhappiness about Pakistan’s position on Russia and revealed that if the no-confidence vote goes through “all will be forgiven in Washington,” adding that the Russia visit will be considered a decision by Khan himself alone.

He warned, however, that if the vote failed, Pakistan would be “isolated”.

Miller denies interfering in ‘internal matters’

When questioned about the cable, State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller refused to comment on “private diplomatic discussions.”

The Pakistani Ambassador expressed his frustration that while the US “expected Pakistan’s support on all issues that were important to the U.S., it did not reciprocate.”

The Ambassador hoped the country’s position on the Ukraine war would not impact “our bilateral ties,” while Lu assured him that if Khan was ousted, things would go back to normal.

Arif Rafiq, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and specialist on Pakistan expressed that after the meeting, Khan’s fate was expected, as the Biden administration had sent a message to the people that the situation would improve if Khan was removed. On March 8, opponents of Khan proceeded with the vote.

Miller also added that the US only “expressed concern” about Khan’s visit to Russia and that the claims that the US “interfered in internal decisions about the leadership of Pakistan are false.” 

The State Department repeatedly denied that Lu encouraged the Pakistani government to depose Khan. Previously, Khan said there was a cable corroborating his accusation of US intervention on April 8, 2022, which State Department Spokesperson Jalina Porter was questioned about its credibility. “Let me just say very bluntly, there is absolutely no truth to these allegations,” Porter claimed at the time. 

The bottom of the cable includes an assessment that details Don “could not have conveyed such a strong demarche without the express approval of the White House.”

Khan reiterated his claims in an interview for The Intercept in June.

Khan’s supporters and political party were met with a crackdown in recent months for their support, something that has been ignored by the US. In a recent visit in July, the head of US Central Command, Gen. Michael Kurilla, stated that his visit focused on “strengthening the military-to-military relations.”

This summer, Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, attempted to add a measure to the National Defense Authorization Act directing the State Department to examine democratic backsliding in Pakistan, but it was denied a vote on the House floor.

While the US has made itself a champion for democracy in other countries, Miller responded to a question on Monday regarding fairness in Khan’s trial by calling it “an internal matter for Pakistan.”

“Internal matters” have seldom ever stopped the US from interfering in other nations.

Press crackdown

Khan’s deposition triggered numerous protests amid an economic crisis and global energy inflation. To add to this, The Intercept previously reported that the Pakistani military has attempted to enforce extreme censorship, stopping news outlets from barely mentioning Khan’s name. 

The onslaught on Pakistan’s press took an especially sinister turn after Arshad Sharif, a famous journalist who fled Pakistan, was shot dead in Nairobi in October and Imran Riaz Khan, a renowned journalist, was taken by security authorities at an airport in May and unseen since. Both were allegedly reporting on the secret cable.

In November 2022, Khan survived an assassination attempt. Pakistani news channel Geo stated that he was injured in the leg after an anonymous attacker shot his convoy, leading to the injury of five other people from his party, Tehreek-e-Insaf. 

Read next: Khan says opponents likely to try assassinating him again: Der Spiegel

Rafiq, the Middle East Institute scholar, believes the “flimsy charges” brought against Khan, along with his attempted assassination, point to the fact that Pakistani forces are using “outside forces to preserve their hegemony over the country.”  He pointed to how the Biden administration is turning a blind eye to Pakistan becoming “a full-fledged military dictatorship.”

The Intercept’s source, who accessed the document as a military worker, expressed fear that the military is driving Pakistan into a crisis comparable to the one that led to Bangladesh’s separation in 1971. The source expressed hope that the leaked document would force a change within the military of Pakistan.

Since his removal, Pakistan has openly been more critical of Russia, reinforcing the document’s claims that the neutrality toward Russia was Khan’s position and not the military’s. Former Army Chief Qamar called Russia’s operation an “invasion” and a “huge tragedy”.

Pakistan has also contributed weapons to Ukraine, something confirmed by an EU official earlier.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister visited Pakistan in July, ostensibly for military cooperation but publicly presented as focused on commerce, education, and environmental problems.

The move has reportedly been compensated by the US, with a Pakistani publication detailing a pact between the two containing “joint exercises, operations, training, basing, and equipment.” 

Khan addressed the cable publicly on March 27, 2022, waving documents in the air during a protest. He also allegedly briefed the leaders of Pakistan’s major security agencies on its contents at a national security meeting. 

Shehbaz Sharif, the new Prime Minister, admitted to the existence of the cable and considered some of Lu’s statements “inappropriate”.

According to The Intercept, the revelation of its contents a year after Khan was removed will allow all claims to be properly investigated. At the most, the document shows the US practically warned of severe repercussions if Khan were to not be removed.

Lu explicitly states in the document that if Khan stays in office, he believes the “isolation…will become very strong from Europe and the United States.”

In July, Khan appeared before the country’s Federal Investigation Agency to face allegations of leaking a confidential document. Sharif’s administration vowed that it will punish Khan for “exposing an official secret document” last year when he displayed a sensitive diplomatic letter at a rally, saying it was “proof” that he was threatened.

In July, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah revealed that Khan would be prosecuted under the Official Secrets Act in connection with the cable, accusing him of “a hatched a conspiracy against the state’s interests.”

Related Posts

• Anger spreads in Pakistan as govt arrests nearly 1,000 Imran Khan supporters
• Clashes erupt as Pakistan police try to arrest Imran Khan
• The Assassination Attempt Against Imran Khan Exposes
• Read Imran Khan’s History Making Independence Day Speech in Azad Kashmir — Eurasia Future
• The Western Alliance Is Falling Apart
• Imran Khan’s “Socialist Revolution” in Pakistan
• Biden Regime Behind Phony Charges Against Pakistan’s Imran Khan
• The Removal Of Imran Khan and the Popular Push Back. How Pakistan Helped Foster “The War on Terrorism”
• Analyzing The Significance Of Imran Khan’s Record-Shattering Twitter Spaces Session
• It’s Fifth Generation Warfare To Falsely Describe Imran Khan As Fascist
• Is Imran Khan Anti-American Or Pro-Pakistani?
• Massive demonstrations in support of Imran Khan
• Contrasting Perceptions About The Rule Of Law In Pakistan After Imran Khan’s Ouster
• US ousts Imran Khan but his revolutionary narrative endures
• Pakistan’s Hazaras Wait for Imran Khan Amidst Coffins of Their Loved Ones
• Pakistan’s Imran Khan Denounces France’s Macron for Encouraging Islamophobia
• Watch Imran Khan’s Full Speech Before the UN General Assembly — Eurasia Future
• Read Imran Khan’s History Making Independence Day Speech in Azad Kashmir — Eurasia Future
• The Infowar On Xinjiang Failed, Now They’re Targeting Pakistan & PM Imran Khan
• Pakistan’s New PM Imran Khan Seeks Historic Peace Deal with India, After Decades of Conflict
• Assessing Imran Khan’s Historic Visit to China
• This is What Can be Accomplished During Imran Khan’s Visit to China
• The Dangerous and Duplicitous Infowar Against Imran Khan

The Assassination Attempt Against Imran Khan Exposes

Nov 4 2022

Source

By Andrew Korybko

Whichever of these three courses of action they choose to go through with, there’s no denying that the strategic inertia is decisively against The Establishment’s elite echelons, who already lost their Hybrid War/Fifth Generational War (5GW) against the Pakistani people. They can either go with the flow by finally allowing the masses to democratically choose their leader, or temporarily delay this inevitability by continuing to conspire against them or even literally risking a civil conflict by directly attacking them.

State-Sponsored Threats

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was ousted through a US-orchestrated post-modern coup in early spring as punishment for his independent foreign policy, narrowly survived an assassination attempt on Thursday. He was leading his promised Long March from Lahore to Islamabad along with thousands of his supporters to demand free and fair elections as early as possible. Prior to the former premier setting off, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah threatened to “hang him upside down.”

Defaming The Former Premier

It’s little wonder then that the most popular political figure in Pakistan, whose party continues to sweep every by-election that they’ve participated in since April, blamed Sanaullah, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Chief of ISI’s Counter-Intelligence Major General Faisal Naseer for trying to kill him. The first already telegraphed his intentions in the prior example and others, the second has an obvious stake in stopping his opponent, and the third was evidently ordered to carry out this dirty deed.

Outside observers might wonder why the head of the country’s counter-intelligence would be tasked with this but it actually makes sense from the perspective through which The Establishment – which is Pakistani parlance for this state’s powerful military-intelligence services – regards the former premier. The weaponized information warfare narrative that its elite echelons have encouraged their media and political proxies to gaslight the public into believing over the past half-year is that he’s a “terrorist”.

After all, Imran Khan was ridiculously charged under the country’s “Anti-Terrorism Act” after announcing his intent to file court cases against those officials who he alleged had abused one of his top aides in custody. The Establishment’s elite echelons have attempted to frame the former premier as a so-called “anti-state extremist” who’s allegedly conspiring to “incite mutiny” and is “defaming” state institutions. These lies were invented simply because he’s actively seeks to reverse this spring’s regime change.

From Fake News To A Failed Assassination

To be absolutely clear, Imran Khan envisages doing this through purely peaceful and political means connected to his country’s constitutional processes, not through violence, terrorism, or disinformation. All that he and his tens of millions of patriotic supporters demand is free and fair elections as early as possible so that the Pakistani people themselves can directly decide who they want to lead them. This noble goal perfectly aligns with the purest democratic principles, yet that’s precisely why he’s a “threat”.

Those domestic collaborators who colluded with the US to overthrow the former premier know fully well how unpopular their post-modern coup is, which is why they’ve had to resort to increasingly despotic, dictatorial, and ultimately dystopian means to cling to power. Free and fair elections as early as possible would reverse the regime change against Imran Khan, after which the conspirators would likely be out of a job at best or prosecuted at worst if they don’t flee abroad first.

After having lost complete control of the country’s socio-political (soft security) dynamics as a result of the post-modern coup that they helped carry out and everything that unfolded afterwards, The Establishment’s elite echelons panicked and thus decided to eliminate Imran Khan. They could have presumably sought to cut some sort of deal with him for ensuring their early retirement with amnesty in exchange for holding free and fair elections as early as possible but probably feared the US’ reaction.

Martial Law Motives

It shouldn’t be forgotten that those who were responsible for this regime change, which includes The Establishment’s elite echelons who infamously remained “neutral” and thus “passively facilitated” it, are politically (and possibly economically) indebted to the US. Complying with the former premier’s demand without first receiving the US’ approval – which could in theory have been granted if it decided to cut its losses with early elections instead of risk Pakistan’s destabilization – might be very dangerous.

That’s not to excuse their attempt to assassinate him but simply to explain their likely thought process. In any case, the decision was made to eliminate Imran Khan once he commenced his promised Long March since The Establishment’s elite echelons expected that the only other way to stop it would be to order the use of lethal force against those thousands of peaceful protesters once they entered the capital. The resultant bloodshed would have prompted martial law and led to international isolation.

Of course, the obvious recourse would simply have been to have their political proxies organize free and fair elections as early as possible as the most responsible pressure valve, but this wasn’t ever seriously considered for the earlier mentioned reasons. Moving along, The Establishment’s elite echelons expected that the former premier would be successfully assassinated, after which his supporters would predictably riot and thus create the pretext for imposing martial law without international isolation.

In other words, the decision was already made to formally reimpose military rule over Pakistan in order to prevent free and fair elections from being held as early as possible, though The Establishment’s elite echelons needed to craft a so-called “publicly plausible” pretext first. Absent that, and especially in the event that the Long March reached the capital and thus resulted in them ordering the use of lethal force against peaceful protesters, there’d be international isolation and possibly even sanctions.

The Three Most Likely Scenarios

The “solution” was to organize the former premier’s assassination, blame it on a “lone wolf” patsy, impose martial law in response to his supporters predictably rioting afterwards, and then possibly even outlaw his party on the false basis that they’re supposedly “anti-state extremists”. This plot failed by a stroke of luck, which now places The Establishment’s elite echelon in a dilemma since they lost their only chance at manufacturing the pretext for imposing martial law without international consequences.

Their dirty game was exposed and the entire world now suspects that something foul is afoot since the sequence of events that everyone expected to transpire in the event that this assassination plot succeeded is obvious to all objective observers. Since Imran Khan survived and promised that his Long March to Islamabad will continue no matter what, The Establishment’s elite echelons are now forced into a zugzwang, which refers to a situation in chess where all possible moves are disadvantageous.

They can either finally do the politically right thing by having their proxies organize free and fair elections as early as possible (though at the expense of their self-interests as was previously explained); try to concoct another clearly manufactured pretext for imposing martial law (though this time possibly with international consequences since everyone is now aware of their intentions); or just outright “go rogue” by using lethal force against the peaceful protesters after no longer giving a damn what happens.

The Establishment’s Elite Echelons Already Lost (Even If They Don’t Know It Yet)

Whichever of these three courses of action they choose to go through with, there’s no denying that the strategic inertia is decisively against The Establishment’s elite echelons, who already lost their Hybrid War/Fifth Generational War (5GW) against the Pakistani people. They can either go with the flow by finally allowing the masses to democratically choose their leader, or temporarily delay this inevitability by continuing to conspire against them or even literally risking a civil conflict by directly attacking them.

In any case, The Establishment’s elite echelons have lost all legitimacy after their unsuccessful assassination plot against Imran Khan. The battle for hearts and minds is over after having been decisively won by the former premier and his supporters, who pushed their foreign-backed institutional opponents into the corner through their peaceful political protests and thus caused them to overreact by practically declaring war on the same 220+ million people who they’re supposed to represent.

The best-case scenario is that those among The Establishment’s elite echelons who are responsible for this egregious violation of the people’s trust, which indisputably crossed the latter’s red line, accept their defeat by allowing democracy to prevail without continuing to try to dangerously obstruct it in vain. No sincerely patriotic member of The Establishment would risk throwing Pakistan into pandemonium by continuing to conspire against its people, let alone seriously countenance waging war against them.

Concluding Thoughts

Pakistan is literally in the throes of a peaceful political revolution led by grassroots patriots who want to liberate their beloved country from the foreign yoke that’s been imposed upon it since the US-orchestrated post-modern coup. Those elite members of The Establishment who are responsible for that regime change and all that came afterwards, especially the attempted assassination of Imran Khan, need to do the right thing in order to save the same country that they dedicated their lives to serving.

Analyzing The Significance Of Imran Khan’s Record-Shattering Twitter Spaces Session

21 APRIL 2022

Source

By Andrew Korybko

From the perspective of a well-intended outsider who’s closely studied Pakistan’s specific national security challenges, it is indeed the case that the greatest casualty of recent events is the partial loss of trust in the official national security narrative since the country’s officials didn’t present a unified front related to the latest such threat that the former Prime Minister claimed was in motion. These developments are unique in Pakistan’s history and further exacerbate the divide between the population’s respective interpretations of recent events and their relation to national security.

The greatest casualty of recent events in Pakistan, irrespective of whether one regards them as a US-orchestrated regime change or a proud display of constitutional integrity, is the partial loss of trust in the official national security narrative. Leaders come and go, some heroically and others shamefully, but national security is supposed to be enduring, especially in a country that’s as seriously afflicted by such threats as Pakistan is. Its leadership and military-intelligence structures, collectively described as The Establishment in Pakistani parlance, used to have the complete trust of their people whenever they’d inform them of a threat to national security, but that’s regrettably no longer the case right now.

Those who interpret recent events as a US-orchestrated regime change are extremely concerned that The Establishment didn’t intervene to thwart this process by potentially postponing the opposition’s no-confidence motion until a comprehensive investigation could be completed to reassure the public about everything. Meanwhile, those who interpret these same events as a proud display of constitutional integrity are aghast what they believe was the previous Prime Minister’s exploitation of national security narratives for self-serving political reasons in order to cling to power against all odds. There is no middle ground: someone either believes one or the other, and both interpretations appear to be irreconcilable.

This poses a truly unprecedented dilemma for The Establishment since never before has the population been so polarized about the official national security narrative. After all, the country’s prior leader made very dramatic accusations that were backed up by members of his government such as his Foreign Minister. He even held a meeting of the National Security Council to discuss the alleged regime change threat that he later revealed was orchestrated by the US as punishment for his independent foreign policy. Pakistanis had hitherto been taught to always take their leaders’ warnings about national security for granted and to never doubt them due to the severity of such threats to their country.

Everyone of course has the right to personally be skeptical about whatever it is that they’re being told, but those who believed the former Prime Minister were reacting exactly as The Establishment had taught them to over the years. Society was already well aware of Hybrid War threats due to their military-intelligence structures’ public awareness campaigns to inform them about the multidimensional forms that they could take. Considering Pakistan’s troubled history of ties with the US and the latter’s documented history of carrying out regime changes across the world through very creative means, it was certainly believable that their former leader was telling the truth. They had no reason to doubt him.

The former Deputy Speaker’s decision to dismiss the opposition’s no-confidence motion on that basis therefore made complete sense to them, who assumed that The Establishment tacitly approved of that happening since they thought that it shared the former Prime Minister’s national security concerns about this scandal. The Supreme Court’s ruling that this was unconstitutional, however, surprised those who were taught to take their leaders’ national security warnings for granted and to never question them since everyone was previously informed that sometimes the average person doesn’t have all the information needed to accurately assess such threats, especially if this information remains classified.

It was therefore with complete shock that these same people then witnessed the sequence of events that followed whereby the former Prime Minister was ultimately removed through the same no-confidence motion that his own government described as playing into the hands of the US’ regime change plot against Pakistan. Similarly shocking to them was that The Establishment didn’t intervene to stop this from happening, which suggested one of two mutually exclusive conclusions: high-ranking members within it associated with this institution’s pro-US school of thought were part of this plot or their former Prime Minister exploited their trust and lied to them for self-serving political reasons.

From the opposite side, those who were always against the former Prime Minister never personally trusted him but for whatever reason went against what The Establishment had hitherto taught them about taking their leaders’ national security warnings for granted. They publicly expressed not just skepticism, but even condemned it as a lie. According to the social standards that were widely assumed to have been in place prior to last weekend’s events, these individuals could have been described as defying The Establishment and potentially even endangering national security, but their narrative now seems credible to some since that same institution didn’t intervene to stop that scandalous process.  

From the perspective of a well-intended outsider who’s closely studied Pakistan’s specific national security challenges, it is indeed the case that the greatest casualty of recent events is the partial loss of trust in the official national security narrative since the country’s officials didn’t present a unified front related to the latest such threat that the former Prime Minister claimed was in motion. This observation is indisputable no matter how much some might want to suppress it. It must be acknowledged and responded to in the interests of restoring this partially lost trust in order to sustainably ensure national security the next time that such threats present themselves so that people don’t dismiss it as fake news.

This challenge will be immensely difficult to resolve considering the unprecedented polarization within society in response to the latest events. The former ruling party already proved that their interpretation of patriotism, sovereignty, and national security appeals to a wide segment of the population despite differing from The Establishment’s after inspiring the largest rallies that the country has seen in decades. The former Prime Minister also continues to describe those who replaced him as an imported government and declared the beginning of a peaceful and legal freedom struggle to politically liberate Pakistan from this foreign yoke.

These developments are unique in Pakistan’s history and further exacerbate the divide between the population’s respective interpretations of recent events and their relation to national security. There’s no doubt that the country’s enemies will inevitably attempt to exploit this dynamic, which is why it’s of the highest importance that society returns to unquestionably trusting their leaders and The Establishment whenever they warn about national security threats. This must be the top priority right now for all Pakistanis, both those within The Establishment (including its rank and file) and outside of it. Trust must urgently be restored, but for that to happen, a national dialogue might first be needed.