أميركا تهرب إلى البلطيق وروسيا لديها ما يسحق الأطلسي

الأربعاء 18 أيار 2022

 محمد صادق الحسيني

واشنطن تتخبّط وتهرب من حفرة الى حفرة أعمق، في مواجهتها المحتدمة مع موسكو!

وطلب كلّ من فنلندا والسويد الانتماء لحلف الناتو ما هو في الواقع سوى مناورات أميركيّة بائسة سببها الهروب من الواقع المخزي لها في أوكرانيا ومستقبل الأطلسي القاتم هناك.

فالسويد وفنلندا يعتبران عملياً جزءاً من الناتو أصلاً سواء بنوع التسليح أو عبر قنوات التعاون المستمرة والمفتوحة بينهما وبين الناتو منذ سنوات، وهو الذي لديه مقرّان مهمان في كل من ستوكهولم وهلسنكي.

ثم أن الروس كانوا قد أعدّوا سلفاً لمثل هذا الاحتمال حتى قبل العملية الخاصة الجارية حالياً في أوكرانيا، عندما زرعوا مقاطعة كالينينغراد الروسية القريبة من البلطيق بمنظومة صواريخ اسكندر القادرة على ضرب أهداف خصمها على مدى ٥٠٠ كلم، ما يجعل البلدين وقواعد الناتو هناك هدفاً قابلاً للتدمير دون الدخول في عملية مباشرة .

ومع ذلك، فإنّ الروس لن يتقبّلوا مثل هذه الخطوة بسهولة، بل سيعتبرونها خطوة استفزازية إضافية في المواجهة الجارية بينهم وبين الأطلسي، باعتبارها خطوة تخلّ بقواعد التعامل المتفق عليها بين الغرب والشرق منذ عقود، تقوم واشنطن وحلفاؤها الأوروبيون الآن بالخروج عليها كما يلي:

 أولا: فنلندا كانت حتى العام ١٩١٧ جزءاً من الإمبراطورية الروسية ولم تنفك عنها الا بعد انتهاء الحرب العالمية الأولى وانتصار الثورة البلشفية بقيادة لينين ما فتح بالمجال لإعلان فنلندا دولة مستقلة. وهو الأمر الذي ترتب عليه نوع من التوافق الثنائي بين البلدين تكرّس رسمياً في معاهدة باريس الدولية في العام ١٩٤٧ تعهدت فيها فنلندا بعدم الانضمام لأي تجمع او دولة معادية للاتحاد السوفياتي .

وهي الدولة التي لديها حدود بحرية وبرية طولها أكثر من ١٣٠٠ كم شمالاً وشمال غرب وهو أمر خطير أن تتحوّل فجأة الى معسكر للناتو في حضن روسيا تماماً.

ثانياً: للسويد تاريخ من الحروب مع روسيا عندما كانت مملكة قوية كانت آخرها قبل نحو ٢٠٠ عام، خسرتها المملكة السويدية لصالح روسيا، ما أفرز يومها عقد الصلح بينهما على أن تعلن اوسلو حيادها التام، وهو ما ظلت ملتزمة به منذ ذلك الحين بشكل رسمي…

فما عدا مما بدا حتى تقرّر اليوم الانقلاب على ذلك الاتفاق!؟

اذن هي واشنطن التي تبحث عن مسار تصعيديّ إعلاميّ ظناً منها أنها تستطيع استنزاف موسكو في البلطيق بعد أن خسرت الرهان في البحر الأسود، لعلها في ذلك تضعف جبهة المواجهة بين تحالف الشرق الاقتصادي الكبير بقيادة الصين وبين الغرب الأميركي المتصدّع والذي بدأ يئنّ من تداعيات العملية الروسية الاقتصادية في أوكرانيا، كما تفيد كلّ التقارير، بما فيها ما ورد على لسان الناطق باسم البيت الأبيض أخيراً عندما ألحّ على الكونغرس لعمل أي شيء لإنقاذ مشروع لصندوق الدعم القومي لأوكرانيا والذي لا يملك أكثر من ٢٠٠ مليون دولار من أصل الـ ٤٠ مليار التي وعد بها بايدن خادمه زيلينيسكي…

لكن موسكو رغم كل ما يُشاع عن خطورة الوضع المستجدّ بخصوص هذه الخطوة، قادرة على سحق كلّ الوجود الأطلسي في البلطيق سواء عبر بيلاروسيا المتحالفة معها او عبر التقدم التسليحي الهائل الذي تملكه هناك نذكر على سبيل المثال منها فقط كاسحات الثلوج النووية القادرة على فتح الطريق لأسطول الشمال الروسي باتجاه المحيطين الهادئ والأطلسي.

ايّ انّ موسكو تستطيع أن تردّ الصاع صاعين وربما تفاجئهم من حيث لا يحتسبون بأسلحة لم تعلن عنها بعد…

‌فالكرملين كما تقول المصادر المتابعة لديه العديد من الأوراق للردّ على المخطط الغربي لمحاصرة روسيا بخطوات حازمة قد تصدم الغرب من جديد..

وطبقاً للمعلومات الواردة من موسكو فإنّ مجلس الأمن الروسي برئاسة بوتين يبحث العواقب السلبيّة لانضمام ‎فنلندا والسويد إلى الناتو على الأمن القومي بإقرار توصيات بوضع «بولندا في المرتبة التالية في مجال نزع النازية بعد أوكرانيا»، ما سيجعل الغرب يتلقى ضربة أقسى هذه المرة من أوكرانيا.

وهنا ربما يمكننا إدراك ما أخذ يردّده الروس كثيراً في الآونة الأخيرة حول خطر نشوب حرب عالمية أو نووية كارثية.

فهل تردّ موسكو في بولنداً رداً أقسى من أوكرانيا وتسكت مدافع الغرب مرة والى الأبدّ ام أننا مقبلون على اندلاع حرب عالميّة ثالثة فعلاً!؟

اليد العليا حتى الآن في المواجهة الروسية الأطلسية هي للروس، وهذا هو ما يدفع بايدن للتخبّط أكثر فأكثر، لكن ذلك لن يطول كثيراً بسبب الضعف البنيويّ لكلّ الآلة العسكرية الأميركية والأطلسية بالمقارنة مع الروسية المتقدمة عليها كثيراً جداً.

العالم يتحوّل نحو مزيد من انحسار القوة الأميركية وتصدّعها، لصالح غلبة تحالف شرقي صاعد.

بعدنا طيّبين قولوا الله…

Virtual Russia, virtual Russian Armed Forces, bad information, bad planning, bad outcomes.

May 15, 2022

Please visit Andrei’s website: https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
and support him here: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?u=60459185

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry + Statement

March 18, 2022

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

 The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

 The grouping of troops of the Lugansk People’s Republic with the fire support of the Russian Armed Forces liberated more than 90 percent of the territory of the republic.

 Currently, the units of the Lugansk People’s Republic are eliminating scattered groups of nationalists on the southern outskirts of Rubezhnoye liberated settlement.

 In the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue their successful offensive in the northern direction.
During the day, they took control of Zolotaya Niva, Novodonetsky, Novomayorskoye and Prechistovka. The advance was 16 kilometers.

 In Mariupol, units of the Donetsk People’s Republic, with the support of the Russian Armed Forces, narrow the encirclement and fighting against nationalists in the city center.

 During the night, aviation and air defence means of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down 6 more Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including 1 Bayraktar TB-2.

Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 81 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Among them: 4 multiple launch rocket system, 3 command posts, 8 ammunition depots and 28 areas of military equipment concentration.

In total, 183 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,406 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 138 multiple launch rocket systems, 535 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,197 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

Continued

Statement by Russian Defence Ministry

On the night of March, 18, the residential areas of Melitopol were attacked by Tochka-U cluster-warhead missiles from a territory controlled by the Kiev nationalist regime.

The Russian air defence systems have repelled the missile launched against the civilian population of the city.

The attack had been launched from the northern direction, south-eastern outskirts of Zaporozhie that is fully controlled by the Ukrainian nationalist units.

The Russian Federation Armed Forces have detected the coordinates of the Ukrainian ballistic missiles.

In order to prevent missile attacks and to protect the Ukrainian citizens against new attacks of the Kiev nationalist regime, the rocket launchers of the Ukrainian nationalists have been destroyed by two Iskander missiles.

It should be emphasised that Melitopol is in ordinary conditions. Shops and public transport are in operation. Every day the Russian servicemen deliver humanitarian aid that has repeatedly been told and shown by mass media representatives.

The subsequent application of ballistic missiles against civilian residents by the Kiev regime whose representatives knew about the absence of Russian Armed Forces firing positions in residential areas of Melitopol proves the criminal nature of the nationalist leadership of Ukraine.

Why did Russia deploy so many forces against NATO?

November 23, 2021

The Saker

So those evil vodka-soaked Russians are deploying their forces right near the Ukrainian border and are about to attack.  Right?

Well, today I want to begin by sharing a few very basic maps with you.  First, here is a map of Russia with her military districts:

The most important thing to understand is that the city of Moscow is located in the middle of the Western Military District which, in other words, means that Moscow is located on in frontier/border/boundary (приграничный) MD.

During the Cold War, the Ukraine used to be considered a 2nd strategic echelon territory (see here for a detailed discussion of how the Soviet forces were structured) and Moscow was far away from any conceivable frontline.

Nowadays, the entire Ukraine is de facto NATO controlled territory.  In other words, the capital of Russia is located less than 300 miles from the Russian border with the Ukraine (see map)

Here is another very revealing factoid: during the 90s, Russia did not have a single division-size fully manned unit deployed west of Moscow.  Now Russia has fully reactivated her famous 1st Guards Tank Army as the strategic reserve for the Western Military District.

What do you think brought about this rather dramatic change?

Might that not have something to do with the fact that NATO forces are now within the driving distance (on a tank, nor car) to Moscow’s suburbs?

And I won’t even go into the distances between the NATO forces in the 3B and Saint Petersburg (less than 100 miles).

And, in the light of the maps above, what do you think the Russians, any Russian, would make of the NATO verbiage: “we will never move (politically) NATO to the east, but now we had to, we will never deploy NATO forces to the east, but now we had to, we will not deliver lethal weapons to the Ukraine, but now we had to, we will not accept (de jure and de facto) the Ukraine in NATO, but now had to, etc. etc. etc.“.

The truth is that the Empire has been preparing a war against Russia since at least the mid 90s and that these preparations dramatically accelerated in the past seven years.

Which makes me wonder, what did the leaders of the Empire expect the Russians to do? Move all their forces back into the Central Military District so as to not frighten the 3B+PU?  Seriously?

The truth of the matter is much simpler: in case of war, the three western military districts (Northern, Western and Southern) would all three find themselves in the first strategic echelon.

BTW – the Northern Military District has now been augmented with the Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command (Объединённое стратегическое командование Северный флот) with a status equal to a military district which could haev been called “Arctic Military District”). Its official designation now is “joint strategic territorial formation of the Russian Armed Forces performing the task of a military district“.  Its forces would also play a key role in northern Europe and the northern Atlantic.

In case of war, Russian military districts become “fronts”, that is “unified commands of operational and strategic troops (forces) of the armed forces in the continental theater of operations” which is militaryspeak for an independent military force capable of waging a full-scale combined arms war.  Please keep in mind that these fronts would also have, when needed, the support of rear military districts and units/forces of the strategic reserve.

So what does all this mean?

It means that while western politicians spent the past 30 years or so slowly encircling Russia, Russian force planners successfully reformed the Soviet/Russian armed forces (which were in a terrible shape in the 90s and in a very uneven shape during most of the 80s) into a military capable of taking on all of NATO at once and quickly and very painfully defeat it.

Remember all those super-dooper weapons Putin mentioned in 2018 which were initially dismissed as “bad cartoons” by western “specialists” and which are now mostly deployed?  You cannot understand their real role and significance unless you also take into account the reform (I would even say redesign) of the Russian armed forces in the last decade or so.  If you want a quick refresher on this topic, please see this analysis I wrote in 2016, that is two years BEFORE Putin unveiled the new Russian weapons systems!

Here is the key element to remember when considering what could happen next: should it come to a real, full-scale, shooting war between Russia and the West, ALL of these weapons systems and forces will be available to the Kremlin and most of them probably will be used in the very early phases of this war.  And I am not only taking about Iskander missiles or Bastion/Bal coastal defenses, I am also talking about the First Guards Tank Army which is such a powerful formation that there is literally no western equivalent to it.  Such heavy armored formation  have such the forces and means of destruction which would make it possible to carry out an operational breakthrough of the enemy’s front and while the same time reliably overcoming of the entire operational depth of enemy defense.  During WWII and the Cold War such formation were called “Shock Armies” (ударная армия).  If you look at the entire order of battle of NATO forces they simply don’t have anything even comparable to such a force.

And so, yes, of course, NATO commanders are frightened by what they see, this is true, and quite understandable.  What is not understandable is why these delusional idiots created the condition which left Russia no other choice than to be ready to fight a full scale war in Europe, including a nuclear one.

And what do they want the Kremlin to do now?  To dismantle these forces or send them back behind the Urals maybe?

I will simply end here with a few questions which don’t seem to bother the western “specialists” (LOL!) very much:

  • How completely out of touch with reality can western leaders be?
  • Last time around, Russia lost about 27 million people, including a full 3rd of the population of Bielorussia. Does anybody in Europe seriously expect the Russians to forget that?
  • Does anybody in Europe seriously expect the Russians to trust a single word western leaders say?
  • Does anybody in Europe seriously doubt the determination of the Russians not to allow yet another European surprise attack?
  • And, finally, does anybody in Europe seriously doubt the outcome of a war against Russia?

Andrei

PS: Russian Defense Minister Shoigu just reported that in November the USAF used 10 strategic bombers coming in from both the east and the west to rehearse nuclear strikes on Russia and that they changed course only 20km from the Russian airspace.

PPS: also please make sure to check Andrei Martyanov’s analysis today (and check him on a daily basis!)

Armenia vows to use Iskander missiles if Turkey deploys F-16s to Azerbaijan

By News Desk -2020-09-29

BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:20 A.M.) – The Armenian ambassador to Russia, Vardan Taganyan, said on Monday that his country would use its Russian-made Iskander missiles if Turkey began to use F-16s in Karabakh, explaining that his country has sufficient air defense systems to get rid of Turkish drones.

“The military leadership has repeatedly stated that if the Sword of Damocles was deployed in the form of Turkish F-16 fighters on the Karabakh people, all measures would be taken, including the use of the Iskanders. That is, the Armed Forces of Armenia would have to fully use their arsenal to ensure security. ”

The Nagorno Karabakh region announced on Monday that 27 Armenian fighters were killed during clashes with the Azerbaijani army, bringing the total of the military deaths to 58.

“27 soldiers were killed in the fighting on Monday,” the Defense Ministry in Karabakh said in a statement on the second day of the fighting. The total number of dead rose to 67, including nine civilians killed, seven in Azerbaijan and two on the Armenian side, according to Agence France-Presse.

World leaders urged a halt to the fighting after the worst clashes since 2016 raised the prospect of a new war between former Soviet states Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Officials in Baku and Yerevan said violent clashes continued throughout Monday. The Ministry of Defense in Karabakh claimed that its forces repelled the Azerbaijani tank attack on the southern sector of the front line.

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense said that its forces destroyed “several artillery units of the enemy with a precise blow.”

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Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a regional conflict since the 1990s, when the Armenian-majority Karabakh declared independence after a war that claimed 30,000 lives.

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