Logistical nightmares for the Ukrainian army

July 24, 2022

Source

By Batko Milacic

In early July, right after Lisichansk was won by the Russian forces, the Russian military and its allies from DNR and LNR, put on display there a large number of captured Ukrainian military equipment. Rows of tanks, rocket launchers and armored vehicles stretched for hundreds of meters. All this was seized by the Russians in just one sector of the front alone. Let’s be honest, most of the Western military assistance to Ukraine is quickly destroyed or falls into the hands of the Russian military, without having any significant impact on the course of the war, and successful exceptions like the US-supplied M142 HIMARS only confirm the rule. Why is this happening?

The whole thing might be pretty simple: while receiving Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Javelin anti-tank systems and French Ceasar self-propelled guns, the Ukrainian army must quickly switch to a single NATO standard, strengthen its combat capability in the wish to stop Russian army. On closer examination, however, it turns out that everything is way more complicated. The unified NATO standard is mainly associated with the calibers of ammunition, and not with the unification of equipment. It is impossible to switch from the German “Leopard” to the French “Leclerc” without a long and serious preparation. A good MRLS operator, used to the Soviet-designed Grad, will not be able to handle America’s famous HIMARS. Each weapon system handed over to Kyiv also requires special retraining of Ukrainian military specialists. And this is just the tip of the iceberg though.

The delivery of one or two self-propelled guns with perfectly trained crews may look good in propaganda videos, but it turns into a logistical nightmare for the Ukrainian military suppliers. Full-fledged confrontation with the enemy requires units trained and equipped with unified weapons, not a battery recruited from different European and Soviet models using five different types of shells. All of them need different parts and accessories. Moreover, gun and tank crews will most likely be unable to replace each other. They are trained to fight with different models of high-tech weapons systems.

This is actually why the Eastern European countries are delivering to Ukraine what is left of their old Warsaw Pact-era stockpiles, not the latest European models. After all, mass-scale training of specialists takes months and calls for multiple instructors. The Kyiv authorities are having problems even with specialists trained in the use of Soviet-era technology. For example, on July 20, numerous telegram channels posted a video with an elderly Ukrainian tank captain, a reservist, who, after being taken prisoner by the Russians, said that all the junior officers of his brigade were over 45 years old, most of whom had received military training in Soviet universities (in the USSR, reserve officers were trained in civilian universities).

Thus, during the five months of the war in Ukraine, units fully equipped with unified weapons and trained personnel never appeared. All technologically advanced weapons are being spread across the frontline complicating the work of the Ukrainian military headquarters and turning the units receiving them into prime targets for Russian troops. The M142 HIMARS has been no exception. Due to their high efficiency and range, they have been able to inflict losses to the Russian army, damaging a strategically important bridge and destroying several military depots. However, these units immediately became hunted ones, and before very long the Russian military command provided evidence of the destruction of some such systems. In fact, the Western-trained crews of these multiple rocket launchers are now like kamikazes, whose mission is to inflict as much damage as possible before they die. But is the Ukrainian military really willing to play this role?

Right now, the correct use of Western assistance should be the topmost priority for the Ukrainian command. That is the formation of units equipped with single-standard weapons and thorough training of their personnel. Only then will the latest Western weaponry be able to stop the unhurried but consistent Russian advance.

This, however, is hardly possible amid continuous Russian missile strikes. Besides, training hundreds of military specialists fast is almost mission impossible. Guided by political considerations, President Zelensky is forcing his military to move the advanced Western-supplied weapons to the frontlines as quickly as possible with no regard for the supply of ammunition and components for these systems. As a result, instead of bringing victory to Kyiv, these weapons either burn down in Donetsk woodlands or end up as exhibits at Russian displays of captured Ukrainian weapons. Meanwhile, middle-aged Ukrainian soldiers – the last Soviet generation – are fighting on old Polish T-72, which they learned to drive 35 years ago. We see the results of such a policy in Ukraine, Kiev has less and less army and more and more losses on the front every day.

Hard times are coming for HIMARS

In war, there are major battles and minor battles. Main and secondary, crucial and those that are not. There are also skirmishes that are sometimes as significant as some battles. One two-day “event“ will certainly affect the further course of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. Ever since they received the American HIMARS multi-barrel rocket launchers, the Ukrainian generals have become emboldened. On July 20, their subordinates fired two platoons of six rockets at the Antonovsky bridge across the Dnieper in the Kherson region. There are 11 holes left on the bridge.

http://fakti.org/sites/default/files/2752782_0.jpg
Some of the holes in the bridge

This happened amid announcements from Kiev that a Ukrainian “counter-offensive in the south” would follow. Exactly to the Kherson region. With the aim of regaining control over it and defeating and destroying the Russian army on the right bank of the Dnieper. However, what followed was what neither the military leadership in Kiev nor the numerous American, British, German and Polish officers who were fighting invisibly on the Ukrainian side had expected.

A battery of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems arrived from Crimea in the Kherson region – with the task of defending the Antonovsky Bridge. On July 21, the Ukrainians tried two new platoons. Again with long-range rockets that American satellites and Avax guide to the target. But the S-400 intercepted and shot down all 12 missiles launched.

http://fakti.org/sites/default/files/2752717_0.jpg
The Antonovsky bridge is strategically important for both sides

Thus, the S-400 reduced to zero the American myth that the missiles of their multi-barrel rocket launchers are uncatchable (undefeatable). This is a hint that more and more new S-400 systems will arrive in Ukraine in the coming days. To close the sky over strategic objects under Russian control and over ongoing operations. At the same time, the Russian army began serious preparations for the complete destruction of HIMARS.

Ukrainian war map by the French military (March 19th) + summary

March 19, 2022

Of course, it shows things in a much more Ukrainian favorable light than any Russian map, because the French are also backing the Ukies and because the French don’t have the same access as Russians.  But, for contrast, here it is.  Let’s call it “here is what they officially admit to” 🙂

Andrei

source: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/ukraine-point-situation

and just to add to the picture, here is a machine translation of the summary of the day by Boris Rozhin (aka Colonel Cassad):

1. Mariupol. Street fighting. By evening, no major advances were reported in the city. Cases of attempts by enemy soldiers to leave the city under the guise of civilians have become more frequent. Filtering generally works. Civilians continue to be actively pulled out of the combat zone and evacuated.

2. Ugledar. A number of messages have been taken, but there is no official confirmation yet. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have actively advanced in the direction of Kurakhovo. There are prerequisites for an offensive from the east to Velikaya Novoselka. In Maryinka, after several days of fighting and powerful artillery preparation, it was possible to inflict serious losses on the enemy and advance a little, but it is still far from the complete capture of the Maryinsky fortified area.

3. Avdiivka. Without significant changes. The positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are held here, despite the many days of fire exposure.

4. LNR. Rubezhnoye is almost completely cleared. The troops advanced to the northern outskirts of Lisichansk. The assault on the city will begin soon. There are street fights in Severodonetsk. It’s too early to talk about the complete capture of Popasnaya, fighting continues in the city.

5. Kharkiv. Heavy fighting to the north and east of the city. Their results are not yet clear. In the area of Izyum, the struggle for Kamenka continues, which is crucial for the AFU holding the southern part of Izyum, which hinders the effective development of the offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on Slavyansk and Barvenkovo. The APU perfectly understands the consequences of the collapse of the front under the Raisins and throws their most combat-ready reserves here from the remaining ones.

6. Zaporozhye. Gulyai-Pole is still rather under the APU. The city was badly damaged. Most likely, increased pressure in this direction will occur after the liberation of Mariupol. The front between Vasilyevka and Kamenskoye is unchanged. Nuts are also under the APU.

7. Kiev. Some expansion of the control zone of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the west and south of Kiev, but there are no operational achievements here yet. Fighting continued from the east, but there are no active movements in the direction of Brovar yet. There is no special movement to Poltava, although the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already stated that the advance to Poltava will begin soon. Perhaps there is still an accumulation of forces. Sumy and Chernihiv are unchanged.

8. Odessa. The Black Sea Fleet is still simulating an amphibious threat, the APU is engaged in anti-amphibious measures. Along the way, it is reported that part of the exposed sea mines was torn off by a storm and carried away towards Romania and Bulgaria. There are no large movements of troops from Odessa to Nikolaev. On the contrary, there is a process of building up the Odessa grouping in anticipation of the activation of the Nikolaev grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

9. Nikolaev. Losses during the strike on the barracks of the 79th odshbr ranged from 80 to 200 killed and 200-300 wounded. In fact, one of the brigade’s battalions ceased to exist in a few minutes, which seriously reduced the APU’s ability to conduct active operations in the Mykolaiv area or to be active in the direction of Kherson. The city itself is still not being stormed, the emphasis is on the methodical destruction of manpower and equipment by air strikes, missiles, MLRS and artillery.

10. Krivoy Rog. There is no serious progress yet, as well as under Nikolai. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation met barriers there and have not yet made active progress towards these cities. Tactical reconnaissance is actively conducted deep into the enemy’s territory due to the lack of a full-fledged front in all areas.

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Russia wanted peace with Ukraine

February 24, 2022

Source

by Batko Milacic

Ukraine has been firmly in the U.S. geopolitical orbit since violent neo-Nazi protests in Kyiv’s Maidan Square resulted in the 2014 overthrow of the allegedly pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych. Yet, Russia did not attempt to help the then-Ukrainian leader stay in power. As a result, anti-Russian forces came to power in Kyiv, leading the people of the Donbass region to vote in favor of leaving Ukraine.

In 2014, Russia also recognized the results of the Ukrainian presidential election, organized by the post-Maidan authorities. Mr. Lavrov even called newly elected President Petro Poroshenko the “best chance” for Ukraine. Eight years later, Russia has completely changed its rhetoric on Ukraine.

“I don’t think anyone can claim that the Ukrainian regime, since the 2014 coup d’état, represents all the people living on the territory of the Ukrainian state,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on February 22.

The reason for this change in Russian attitude is the acts that the Ukrainian government is committing against Russians and all other citizens who speak Russian in Ukraine. Ukraine waged a kind of “jihad“ against the Russian language and culture.

From January 16, 2020, Ukraine translated all its services into Ukrainian by force of law. So: all shops, cafes and restaurants, banks and pharmacies had to comply with this shameful law. All employees have become obliged to communicate with customers – guests and clients – exclusively in Ukrainian. The Russian language has become completely banned. The mass media also came under attack from Ukrainization. Now, 75 percent of programs on national television are broadcasted in the Ukrainian language, and by 2024, the obligation will be – 90 percent.(1)

All these actions of the Ukrainian government, which have clear elements of fascism, forced pro –Russian forces in Ukraine to react. That is why there were riots in Ukraine with the desire to separate large parts of the territory from Ukraine.

It is clear to all analysts dealing with Ukraine that today`s Ukraine is United States instrument against Russia.

The fact that Kiev received at least $200 million in U.S. “lethal aid” as well as other Western-made weapons over the past two months, means that Kiev rejects a peaceful solution. And Russian President Vladimir Putin has been offering this peaceful solution for years.

Such an operation undoubtedly means war. But war is inevitable, one way or another. Russia has deployed troops to the newly recognized Donbass republics. If Ukrainian forces do not end hostilities, the Russian Army is will to engage in a direct confrontation against Ukrainian army, in order to protect the innocent citizens of DNR and LNR. Sooner or later, the Donbass conflict will escalate. Shelling has increased along the entire front line, which seems to be part of preparations for a military offensive.

That several Western countries have moved their embassies from Kyiv to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, and that around 10 airlines have canceled their flights to Ukraine, suggests the breakout of war is just a matter of time.

However, the fact that several Western countries have moved their embassies from Kyiv to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, and that around 10 airlines have canceled their flights to Ukraine, suggests the breakout of war is just a matter of time.

Because of all the above in Moscow a conference was held which was attended by analysts, historians, journalists and political scientists from many countries around the world. A conference was held in the Civil Council of the Russian Federation on the topic: “Eight years of the illegal coup in Ukraine – results and consequences”:

Participants summed up the events around Ukraine, as well as the attitude of the West towards this issue. The round table was opened and moderated by Maxim Grigoriev, a member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation, director of the Foundation for Research on Democracy, who began his speech by summarizing the results of eight years since the coup in Kiev.

“The political results of Euromaidan are even sadder than the economic ones,” he said.

“This includes war crimes – deliberate shelling of women and children in Donbas. We see what is happening inside Ukraine, it is the fight against dissidents, when those who do not share the views of the country’s leadership are killed, arrested, kidnapped. This includes the fight against TV channels, including “Ukrainian death squads” – “Azov”, “Right Sector”. They kill dissidents and are trained by the same instructors who prepared “death squads” in Latin America concluded Mr Grigoriev.

  1. https://standard.rs/2020/12/06/ukrajina-potpuno-zabranjuje-upotrebu-ruskog-jezika/

Russia’s Security Council Recommends To Recognize The Donbas Republics

February 21, 2022

Updated (again) below

The Russian National Security Council has been meeting today to discuss the recognition of the Donetzk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) as independent states.

The whole meeting was shown on public TV. RT-English provided a live translation. The purpose of the show was to present Russia’s arguments to an international public.

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Last week the Russian parliament submitted a resolution which asked the president of Russia to recognize the DNR and LNR. Earlier today the leaders of the DNR and LNR made a formal official request to recognize their republics.

The security council heard the opinions of the prime minister, foreign minister and defense minister. The leaders of parliament and of the security services also spoke.

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The military reported that earlier today a group of Ukrainian saboteurs had tried to cross onto Russian ground but was prevent from doing so. A published video of the incident showed two burning BMP infantry fighting vehicles. Russia says that five of the intruders have been killed and one of them has been arrested.

Defense minister Shoigu reported that there are some 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers at the border of the DNR and LNR together with more than 500 tanks and lots of artillery. He also pointed out that the Ukrainian president Zelensky had announced that the Ukraine would leave the Budapest agreement and start to build nuclear bombs. He said the Ukraine has the knowledge and means to do that and called the move  extremely dangerous.

It was pointed out that recent artillery attacks had destroyed part of the water supply for Donetzk and that the destruction of a pipeline left many people without gas. This is seen as an emergency situation. Some 70,000 refugees have been received in Russia.

Several members of the security council pointed out that some 700,000 of the 4.6 million inhabitants of the rebellious Donbas region already have a Russian passport, some 500,000 more have applied for one. These are formal Russian citizens which Russia must protect from harm.

All members were of the opinion that the current situation needs a new solution. The Ukrainian government is obviously unwilling to fulfill the Minsk agreements by giving more autonomy to its Donbas region. It is instead trying to regain the region by war.

All were of the opinion that the republics should therefore be recognized. The head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, Sergey Naryshkin, said the the republics should be integrated into Russia. Putin told him that such a step was not under discussion.

After hearing all opinions Putin said that he would make the decision later today.

What would it mean if Russia recognizes the DNR and LNR as sovereign states? For one – the Minsk agreement, which the Ukraine does not want to implement anyway, would be null and void.

What other steps would follow was not discussed but there are certain possibilities.

The DNR and LNR could ask for a common defense agreement with the Russian Federation. The Russian military could then move into the DNR and LNR.

Neither the DNR nor the LNR incorporate all land that defines the formal administrative Donetzk and Luhansk regions of the Ukraine. The republics, with Russia’S help, could try to extend the border of DNR and LNR to the original administrative borders of those regions. That probably would mean a war which I still find unlikely to happen.

The economic integration of the DNR and LNR into Russia’s economy should be no problem. Both regions are rather rich with minerals like anthracite coal. Both have large industrial installations and a well educated Russian speaking public.

An open question is what the ‘west’ would do if Russia recognizes the republics.

The national security council is expecting more sanctions but several members shrugged them off. They said that sanctions would be imposed anyway no matter what Russia does or does not do. They expect that in the long term the sanctions will increase Russia’s autonomy and expand its economy. The sanctions are also expected to erode over time as Russia offers desirable products and is in itself a large market.

I find it unlikely that the ‘west’ would impose all sanctions it has prepared in response to Russia’s move today. It would the expense of all economic ammunition that can be used against Russia. As Russia still could take more serious action some sanctions must be held back for that eventuality.

Later today Russia’s president Vladimir Putin will give a televised speech to announce his decision.

I will update this post when it is known.

Update:

Maxim A. Suchkov @m_suchkov – 18:11 UTC · Feb 21, 2022

⚡#Putin has just had phone calls with @OlafScholz & @EmmanuelMacron. #Kremlin says #Russian president “briefed both leaders on the results of Security Council gathering & told them he is going to respective order [apparently on recognition of LNR/DNR].

Update 18:28 UTC:

The above tweet has now been confirmed by an official Kremlin statement about the phone call (machine translation):

Vladimir Putin had telephone conversations with President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron and Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz.

Vladimir Putin informed about the results of the expanded meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, which considered the current situation around Donbass in the context of the State Duma’s decision on the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Today, the leadership of the DPR and LPR received appeals to recognize their sovereignty in connection with the military aggression of the Ukrainian authorities, massive shelling of the territory of Donbass, as a result of which the civilian population suffers.

With all this in mind, the President of Russia said that he intended to sign a relevant decree in the near future.

The President of France and the Federal Chancellor of Germany expressed their disappointment with this development. At the same time, they indicated their readiness to continue contacts.

Update 19:42 UTC:

It has happened. After a TV speech on the development of the Ukraine since the begin of Soviet communism and after laying out the list of Russian grievances with western aggression Putin signed the official recognition of the Donbas republics as independent states. There are now also cooperation agreements on defense and other issues signed by Putin as well as the heads of the Donbas republics.

If the Ukraine continues its war on Donbas Russia will respond with force.