Palestinian Resistance leader Marwan Barghouti was seen with his cuffed hands raised above his head flashing a peace sign during his trial in 2003 (AFP)
Detained Palestinian Resistance Commander Marwan Barghouti sends a letter from the isolation department of the “Ofer” Prison.
Detained Palestinian Resistance Commander, Marwan Barghouti, sent a message from the collective isolation section of the “Ofer” prison, on the second anniversary of Operation Freedom Tunnel, in which he began by saluting the “six heroes of Operation Freedom Tunnel, who are detained in solitary isolation, who had marked the start of a new era of resilience, survival and Resistance.”
In his letter, Barghouti reaffirmed that “today we meet on the anniversary of the remembrance of the six heroes of Operation Freedom Tunnel who marked a new era in the history of resilience, survival, and Resistance of Palestinian people who have been enduring for more than a hundred years of struggle and resistance.”
“This heroic Operation cheered the entire world, and gained the respect and appreciation of Palestinians and free Arabs across the world,” Barghouti said reaffirming that “this heroism was a shock to the Israeli occupation, reigniting the cause of [Palestinian] prisoners and their freedom.”
Moreover, Barghouti said the operation had “reaffirmed the will of prisoners, who have not been broken by the long years of pain and suffering, to attain freedom.”
Barghouti also noted, “that this anniversary [of the operation] coincides with the escalation of the fascist occupation government through its policy of marginalizing and isolating the Palestinian cause in preparation for its liquidation.”
The occupation government explained the leader, has sought to achieve its goal “by flooding the [West] Bank and Al-Quds with hundreds of thousands of settlers and perpetuating the policy of creeping annexation.”
In response to such actions, Barghouti stressed the importance of “addressing current challenges, the most important of which is [Israeli] settlement,” which according to the imprisoned leader “requires the rearranging the Palestinian house through a national conference for inclusive dialogue, setting a timetable for holding presidential and legislative elections, rebuilding and developing the Palestine Liberation Organization, and integrating the Hamas and [Palestinian] jihad movements into it, so that the Organization can truly reflect the unity of Palestinian representation.”
Exclusive: Prisoner Mahmoud Aridah warns of another Nakba
The parties to the disputes in Occupied Palestine must stay on heightened alert and be wary of the Israeli enemy’s schemes, Operation Freedom Tunnel hero, prisoner Mahmoud al-Arida said in a letter he sent to Al Mayadeen that was released last Wednesday.
The Palestinian prisoner said he “saluted our great people and our valiant resistance in Palestine, its victorious brigades, and the Axis of Resistance from Tehran to Baghdad, passing through the Levant (al-Sham) and the great city of Beirut.”
The letter was written on the occasion of the second anniversary of Operation Freedom Tunnel, which saw six Palestinian prisoners liberating themselves from behind Israeli bars.
Al-Arida held the Palestinian factions responsible before history to avert another Nakba afflicting the Palestinian people.
“The Israeli occupation continues its settlement project and the Judaization of Al-Quds in order to build its alleged temple,” the Palestinian prisoner added in his letter.
“The Israeli enemy believes that the Palestinian status quo, coupled with the absence of an Arab and Islamic role, allows it to achieve its goals, primarily through killing, demolishing, land confiscation, and violations against the captive movement through constant pressure,” he wrote.
The mastermind behind Operation Freedom Tunnel told the people of the Palestinian territories occupied in 1948 to be wary of the Israeli project that represents an existential threat to them, stressing that the occupation has the goal of forcefully and voluntarily displacing them, confiscating Palestinian territories, and putting restrictions on residential compounds so as to prevent them from expanding.
“The daily killings, which are seeing an uptick, are resulting in a victim in every home, and thus, the civil war becomes a matter of time, and it will only end after thousands of deaths, deportations, and displacement,” al-Arida underlined.
“In recent years, we have begun to witness internal migration to the refugee camps and cities of the West Bank. It is slow, but it will accelerate soon,” he explained.
“I tell the Palestinian youth: Wake up… stop the infighting. Reclaim your identity and memory. Turn to the churches and mosques. Break the barrier of fear of religiosity,” the Palestinian prisoner said.
Concluding his letter, the Operation Freedom Tunnel hero said: “Our message to our resistance in Gaza and Iraq (the descendants of Hussein): Our lives have dwindled away in prisons, but the enemy finds solace in us, gloating over our suffering, believing it has achieved its goals in the prisons.”
“We look to you to put an end to this humanitarian tragedy that has gone on far too long,” al-Arida added.
On the morning of September 6, 2021, six Palestinian prisoners broke out of the high-security Israeli Gilboa prison through a tunnel they dug, which led them outside the prison walls before they were arrested.
The Freedom Tunnel prisoners are Mahmoud al-Arida, Zakaria al-Zubaidi, Yaqoub Qadri, Mohammed al-Arida, Ayham Kamamji, and Munadel Nafi’at.
Mahmoud al-Arida and Yaqoub Qadri were re-arrested four days later, on September 10, 2021 in Al-Nasra. Zakaria al-Zubaidi and Mohammed al-Arida were re-arrested the next day, and Ayham Kamamji and Mundadel Nafi’at on Sunday the 19th, after the house they had barricaded themselves in, east of Jenin, was surrounded.
Hamas included Marwan Al-Bargouthi on the list of Palestinian prisoners whom the movement calls for their release as part of prisoner swap deal with the occupation authorities, a report said on Wednesday.
Russia Today quoted a Hamas official as saying that Hamas is keen to free all prisoners who have life terms.
The official noted that this round of talks has not discussed so far numbers and names of prisoners who are likely to be freed.
Barghouti, a popular Fatah leader, is serving a five life sentences plus 40 years. He is dubbed “Palestine’s Nelson Mandela.”
Earlier on Monday, Egyptian security chief Abbas Kamel arrived in the Gaza Strip through Erez Crossing point on the borders with the occupied territories to hold talks with leaders of Palestinian factions, including the Hamas.
One of the discussed issues was the possible prisoner swap deal with the Israeli occupation authorities.
During Monday meetings, Hamas officials informed Kamel that the Resistance movement rejects linking the process of the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip with reaching the prisoner swap deal.
أكد مصدر في «حماس» أن الحركة حريصة على خروج جميع الأسرى الفلسطينيين من سجون الاحتلال وفي مقدمتهم القادة والمحكومون بأحكام مرتفعة ومدى الحياة والمؤبدات.
وشدّد المصدر على أن هناك حرصاً من الحركة على إخراج هؤلاء القادة وتم دائماً طرح أسمائهم في صفقة «شاليط»، كاشفاً عن «فيتو صهيوني أو حتى من تدخّلات من قبل البعض خصوصاً حول مروان البرغوثي».
وأضاف: «حتى اللحظة في هذه الجولة من المفاوضات، لم يتم التوصل إلى نقطة الحديث حول مَن وعدد الذين سيخرجون من السجون»، مشيراً إلى أن «الاحتلال ما زال يماطل ولم يستجب للذهاب إلى مفاوضات غير مباشرة في هذا الموضوع».
وفي السياق، كشف موقع «واينت» العبري نقلاً عن مسؤول صهيوني كبير، أن الاحتمالات لإبرام صفقة تبادل أسرى مع حركة «حماس» ارتفعت.
وبحسب «واينت»، أفاد المسؤول بأن «إسرائيل» تنتظر حالياً عرضاً من قبل الوسطاء المصريين لصفقة من هذا القبيل»، التي ستشمل الإفراج عن سجناء فلسطينيين أمنيين مقابل إعادة جثماني الجنديين الصهيونيين، أورون شاؤول وهدار غولدن، واطلاق سراح المواطنين أبرا منغرسة، وهشام السيد، اللذين تحتجزهما «حماس» في قطاع غزة.
كما أوضح المسؤول الصهيوني أن «المصريين مهتمون بالقضية، ويفهمون أنه بدون حل قضية الأسرى والمفقودين لن تكون هناك إعادة إعمار، بعد الدمار الذي حدث في العملية العسكرية الأخيرة».
If imprisoned Palestinian leader, Marwan Barghouti, becomes the President of the Palestinian Authority (PA), the status quo will change substantially. For Israel, as well as for the current PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, such a scenario is more dangerous than another strong Hamas showing in the upcoming Palestinian parliamentary elections.
The long-delayed elections, now scheduled for May 22 and July 31 respectively, will not only represent a watershed moment for the fractured Palestinian body politic, but also for the Fatah Movement which has dominated the PA since its inception in 1994. The once-revolutionary Movement has become a shell of its former self under the leadership of Abbas, whose only claim to legitimacy was a poorly contested election in January 2005, following the death of former Fatah leader and PA President, Yasser Arafat.
Though his mandate expired in January 2009, Abbas continued to ‘lead’ Palestinians. Corruption and nepotism increased significantly during his tenure and, not only did he fail to secure an independent Palestinian State, but the Israeli military occupation and illegal settlements have deepened and grown exponentially.
Abbas’ rivals from within the Fatah Movement were sidelined, imprisoned or exiled. A far more popular Fatah leader, Marwan Barghouti, was silenced by Israel as he was thrown into an Israeli prison in April 2002, after a military court found him guilty of involvement in Palestinian resistance operations during the uprising of 2000. This arrangement suited Abbas, for he continued to doubly benefit: from Barghouti’s popularity, on the one hand, and his absence, on the other.
When, in January, Abbas declared that he would hold three successive rounds of elections – legislative elections on May 22, presidential elections on July 31 and Palestinian National Council (PNC) elections on August 31 – he could not have anticipated that his decree, which followed intense Fatah-Hamas talks, could potentially trigger the implosion of his own party.
Fatah-Hamas rivalry has been decades-long but intensified in January 2006 when the latter won the legislative elections in the Occupied Territories. Hamas’s victory was partly attributed to Fatah’s own corruption, but internal rivalry also splintered Fatah’s vote.
Although it was Fatah’s structural weaknesses that partly boosted Hamas’ popularity, it was, oddly, the subsequent rivalry with Hamas that kept Fatah somehow limping forward. Indeed, the anti-Hamas sentiment served as a point of unity among the various Fatah branches. With money pouring in from donor countries, Fatah used its largesse to keep dissent at a minimum and, when necessary, to punish those who refused to toe the pro-Abbas line. This strategy was successfully put to the test in 2010 when Mohammed Dahlan, Fatah’s ‘strong man’ in Gaza prior to 2006, was dismissed from Fatah’s central committee and banished from the West Bank, as he was banished from Gaza four years earlier.
But that convenient paradigm could not be sustained. Israel is entrenching its military occupation, increasing its illegal settlement activities and is rapidly annexing Palestinian land in the West Bank and Jerusalem. The Gaza siege, though deadly and tragic, has become routine and no longer an international priority. A new Palestinian generation in the Occupied Territories cannot relate to Abbas and his old guard, and is openly dissatisfied with the tribal, regional politics through which the PA, under Abbas, continues to govern occupied and oppressed Palestinians.
Possessing no strategies or answers, Abbas is now left with no more political lifelines and few allies.
With dwindling financial resources and faced by the inescapable fact that 85-year-old Abbas must engineer a transition within the movement to prevent its collapse in case of his death, Fatah was forced to contend with an unpleasant reality: without new elections the PA would lose the little political legitimacy with which it ruled over Palestinians.
Abbas was not worried about another setback, like that of 2006, when Hamas won majority of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC)’s seats. Until recently, most opinion polls indicated that the pro-Abbas Fatah list would lead by a comfortable margin in May and that Abbas would be re-elected President in July. With his powers intact, Abbas could then expand his legitimacy by allowing Hamas and others into the PLO’s Palestinian National Council – Palestine’s parliament in the Diaspora. Not only would Abbas renew faith in his Authority, but he could also go down in history as the man who united Palestinians.
But things didn’t go as planned and the problem, this time, did not come from Hamas, but from Fatah itself – although Abbas did anticipate internal challenges. However, the removal of Dahlan, the repeated purges of the party’s influential committees and the marginalization of any dissenting Fatah members throughout the years must have infused Abbas with confidence to advance with his plans.
The first challenge emerged on March 11, when Nasser al-Qidwa, a well-respected former diplomat and a nephew of Yasser Arafat, was expelled from the movement’s Central Committee for daring to challenge Abbas’ dominance. On March 4, Qidwa decided to lock horns with Abbas by running in the elections in a separate list.
The second and bigger surprise came on March 31, just one hour before the closing of the Central Election Commission’s registration deadline, when Qidwa’s list was expanded to include supporters of Marwan Barghouti, under the leadership of his wife, Fadwa.
Opinion polls are now suggesting that a Barghouti-Qidwa list, not only would divide the Fatah Movement but would actually win more seats, defeating both the traditional Fatah list and even Hamas. If this happens, Palestinian politics would turn on its head.
Moreover, the fact that Marwan Barghouti’s name was not on the list keeps alive the possibility that the imprisoned Fatah leader could still contest in the presidential elections in July. If that, too, transpires, Barghouti will effortlessly beat and oust Abbas.
The PA President is now in an unenviable position. Canceling the elections would lead to strife, if not violence. Moving forward means the imminent demise of Abbas and his small but powerful clique of Palestinians who benefited greatly from the cozy political arrangement they created for themselves.
As it stands, the key to the future of Fatah is now held by a Palestinian prisoner, Marwan Barghouti, who has been kept by Israel, largely in solitary confinement, since 2002.
– Ramzy Baroud is a journalist and the Editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of five books. His latest is “These Chains Will Be Broken: Palestinian Stories of Struggle and Defiance in Israeli Prisons” (Clarity Press). Dr. Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) and also at the Afro-Middle East Center (AMEC). His website iswww.ramzybaroud.net
ما هي أبعاد تحالف القيادي ناصر القدوة والأسير مروان البرغوثي في الانتخابات التشريعية الفلسطينية؟ وما هي نقاط التقاطع بينهما؟ وهل الاتفاق بينهما جبهة انتخابية فقط أم مشروع سياسي مستقبلي؟
انعطف القيادي ناصر القدوة عند مفترق الانتخابات عن حركة فتح، مؤسساً الملتقى الوطني الديمقراطي، وأعلن خوض الانتخابات مستقلاً بقائمة الحرية مدعوماً من الأسير مروان البرغوثي.
فهل تكون خطوة القدوة انشقاق عن الحركة أم شق لها؟ وهل الاتفاق بين البرغوثي والقدوة جبهة انتخابية فقط أم مشروع سياسي مستقبلي؟ وأي أبعاد لهذه الخطوة؟
وفي التحالف بين البرغوثي والقدوة تطرح الأسئلة؛ فأي نقاط تقاطع بين مناضل يتمتع بتأييد واسع شعبي، وآخر يحجز مكانةً في الدوائر النخبوية وينسج علاقات دوليةً وإقليمية؟
ويؤكد مراقبون أن تحالف مروان البرغوثي وناصر القدوة، وهو ابن شقيقة الرئيس الراحل ياسر عرفات، إذا ما صمد أمام الضغوط التي تمارس عليه وتحديداً من حركة فتح فقد يشكل ركيزة أساسية من ركائز العمل الوطني الديمقراطي.
في هذا السياق، قال مؤسس الملتقى الوطني الديمقراطي ناصر القدوة في حديث مع الميادين: “سأبقى فتحاوياً حتى العظم ولم أدر ظهري للحركة”، مشيراً إلى أن “بعض الجهات النافذة في حركة فتح أدار ظهره لي ولقطاعات واسعة في الحركة لأسباب سياسية”.
وقال القدوة للميادين إن “قرار فصلي من فتح لا ينسجم مع نظام الحركة ولا يأخذ بالاعتبار التاريخ والجغرافيا”، مؤكداً: “أنا سأبقى في فتح واختلافي مع بعض الأشخاص هو حول الجوهر ولا يتعلق بأمور شخصية وشكلية”.
وأضاف: “سأخوض الانتخابات تحت عنوان إحداث التغيير في الحالة الفلسطينية، والحالة الفلسطينية بحاجة إلى تغيير واسع وعميق، وكرامة المواطن الفلسطيني في خطر بسبب انتهاك سيادة القانون والحرية”.
القدوة تابع: “هناك أمور بدأت تتغير وحاجز الخوف كسر مع ترشحنا للانتخابات، وما زلت أعتبر نفسي في صلب فتح ولست قيادياً سابقاً في الحركة”.
وأشار إلى أن “بعض الدوائر الفلسطينية لم يتوقف عن توجيه الاتهام لي بأنني حالة دحلانية”، مشيراً إلى أنه “لم يصوت على قرار فصل محمد دحلان من فتح أو غيره لأنها حركة تضم كل الاتجاهات السياسية”.
وقال: “من لديه معلومات عن أموال تصلني من الخارج فليظهرها ولا أنتمي لأي محور من المحاور”.
وكشف القدوة أن “البرغوثي من الممكن أن يترشح للانتخابات الرئاسية وإذا قرر ذلك سندعمه، وسنكون في المعسكر نفسه معه”.
القدوة قال إن “هناك أجواء إيجابية وطيبة تصلني من حركة حماس وهذا لا يعني عدم وجود خلاف معها”.
وحيال تصريحه الأخير الذي هاجم فيه الإسلاموية، رفض القدوة “توجيه أي اتهام لي بالهجوم على الإسلام”، مؤكداً أنه “تم تحريف كلامي بشأن الإسلام بطريقة مزعجة وكاذبة”.
وفي سياق آخر، أكد القدوة أن “إسرائيل مسؤولة عن اغتيال الراحل ياسر عرفات وفق الأدلة والاثباتات”.
فيما رفض ما يسمى بالـ”خطر الإيراني”، قائلاً إن “طهران هي جزء من المنطقة ويجب الحوار معها”.
كما قال إن “سلاح المقاومة الفلسطينية يجب أن لا يمس، وهي مسألة تخضع للحوار فقط”.
هذا وأعلنت لجنة الانتخابات المركزية الفلسطينية قبول ترشيح 36 قائمةً انتخابيةً للوصول إلى مقاعد المجلس التشريعي الفلسطيني.
أبرز اللوائح حملت عنوان حركة فتح وشعارها العاصفة، وهي قائمة مكتملة من 132 عضواً على عدد مقاعد المجلس التشريعي، بدعم من الرئيس محمود عباس.
قائمة الحرية التي يرأسها القيادي السابق في حركة فتح ناصر القدوة، بدعم من القيادي الأسير مروان البرغوثي، وهي غير مكتملة وتضم 65 مرشحاً، معظمهم من الضفة الغربية.
أما قائمة حركة حماس مكتملة بدورها وتحمل عنوان “القدس موعدنا” برئاسة الدكتور خليل الحية، وتضم عدداً من الأسرى من ذوي الأحكام العالية كنائل البرغوثي وجمال أبو الهيجا وحسن سلامة.
ومن القوائم غير المكتملة أيضاً قائمة “نبض الشعب”، ويرأسها من سجنه الأمين العام للجبهة الشعبية لتحرير فلسطين أحمد سعدات، وتضم عضو المجلس التشريعي الأسيرة خالدة جرار، إضافةً إلى قياديين في الجبهة في الضفة الغربية وغزة.
حركة الجهاد الإسلامي تغيب عن المشهد الانتخابي لاعتبارها أن الانتخابات تجري ضمن برنامج يعترف بالاحتلال وشرعيته على أرض فلسطين، وأنها تحول خطير ويعطي شرعيةً للاحتلال لضم الضفة الغربية والقدس، وفق تصريحات أمينها العام زياد نخالة الأخيرة في دمشق.
The Central Elections Commissions (CEC) announced that 28 electoral lists have submitted nomination applications. (Photo: Central Elections Commission website)
Nine members of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement – Fatah – withdrew on Thursday from the movement’s electoral list for parliamentary elections just as the Central Elections Commission closed registration for the polls.
Fatah candidate in Gaza, Riad Al-Astal, announced on Facebook that he had withdrawn from the movement’s electoral list to protest “the irresponsible decision to ignore the number of votes in Khan Yunis,” as well as the disregard of popular opinion and conduct that was not representative of Fatah’s spirit.
— The Palestine Chronicle (@PalestineChron) April 1, 2021
Another Fatah candidate in Gaza, Prof Muhammad Abu Hamida who had also withdrawn from the movement’s electoral list said he had taken his decision for reasons that he will keep to himself.
Elsewhere, in the West Bank, unknown gunmen opened fire on the home of a Fatah candidate in the southern governorate of Hebron shortly after he officially announced joining the movement’s list.
Al-Qudwa served as Palestine’s ambassador at the UN. (Photo: UN, file)
Senior Fatah leader Nasser Al-Qudwa has called on Friday for Fatah leaders to stand against Mahmoud Abbas, who he described as “the main reason for Fatah’s weakness”, Arabi21.com reported.
Al-Qudwa’s remarks came in response to Fatah’s decision to dismiss him over his attempt to run for the parliamentary elections on a separate list to Fatah.
— The Palestine Chronicle (@PalestineChron) March 12, 2021
“I think a lot of the Palestinians want to change as they believe it is the time to choose a new track for hope,” Al-Qudwa added, referring to his proposal to reform Fatah as a condition for him to run on the official list for parliament.
Criticizing the rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas, he explained:
“It is not difficult for Hamas to face Fatah due to what I have warned about. The cooperation between member of Fatah Central Committee Jibril Al-Rajoub and Hamas Deputy Chief Saleh Al-Arouri is weakening Fatah. Therefore, the president must bear this in mind.”
Al-Qudwa stated that he is still committed to supporting jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti if he runs for presidency, because “there are no other choices on the table.”
Senior Fatah leaders Marwan Barghouti and Nasser Al-Qidwa have given Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas until March 5 to accept their electoral list, Lebanon’s Al-Akbar reported on Monday.
Barghouti has been in an Israeli prison since 2002, while Al-Qidwa is a cousin of the late Yasser Arafat. According to senior Fatah sources, they have proposed a list to Abbas that includes young people and active Fatah members who have been effectively neutralized by Abbas due to their resistance against the Israeli occupation.
Abbas reelection is not good for #Palestine. Palestinian political prisoner Marwan Barghouti for president? | Elections News | Al Jazeera. https://t.co/aUy2TNJbqi
The Lebanese newspaper reported the sources as saying that they ruled out that Abbas could cancel the elections or postpone them due to regional and international pressure if he fails to be ready to face Fatah’s main rival, Hamas.
Meanwhile, the differences within Fatah are increasing. The Secretary of its Central Committee, Jibril Al-Rajoub failed last week to prevent the formation of different electoral lists for Fatah members and leaders.
Al-Akhbar said that Al-Rajoub had laid down a roadmap for the elections that meets the demands of Barghouti and Al-Qidwa, but falls far behind their vision in relation to fighting corruption and supporting Palestinian resistance against the occupation.
Senior Fatah official Qadura Fares has announced that he will not stand for election. Fares is the director of the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club and said that he is not standing as a candidate because of the “numerous painful conditions for the democratic process that makes the factional agenda superior to national interests.”
Moreover, another senior Fatah official, Nabil Amro, is apparently seeking to form his own list after rejecting the list proposed by the movement’s Central Committee, which does not put him among the top names. Former PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, the sources said, is working to form his own list and could possibly act in partnership with Amro.
From the perspective of the Israeli security establishment, it would have been better if the scheduled Palestinian elections would not take place at all.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has ordered general elections to be held on 22 May, a presidential one on 31 July and Palestinian National Council polls on 31 August.
Hamas, the main opposition to Abbas’ Fatah movement currently running a parallel administration in Gaza, welcomed the announcement.
About two million Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem and besieged Gaza Strip are eligible to vote. Israel, which annexed East Jerusalem in 1967 in a move never recognised by the international community, most likely will not allow Jerusalemites to vote.
‘The elections pose for Israel more risks than opportunities’
– Colonel Michael Milshtein, ex-Israeli Military Intelligence
But Israel also remembers how it was shocked to realise that Hamas had won the last elections for the Palestinian legislature in 2006. Judged to be free and fair by international observers, Hamas defeated Fatah, which had been established by its founding father Yasser Arafat and led since his death by Abbas.
“The elections pose for Israel more risks than opportunities,” says Colonel Michael Milshtein, who headed the Palestinian branch in the research department of Israeli Military Intelligence, known by its Hebrew acronym as Aman.
A year after the elections, Hamas took power in Gaza in a coup following violent clashes with Fatah – and has controlled the coastal enclave ever since.
The general elections are a promising development to enhance the democratic process, increase public trust, create international support for the Palestinian predicament and refresh the stagnated Palestinian politics and its ageing politicians.
Fatah suffers from internal tensions, factional rifts and a deteriorating public image. Meanwhile, Hamas shows determination, a high degree of unity and organisational skills.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (R) hands the election decree to Chairman of the Palestinian Central Election Committee Hana Naser in Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank (Reuters)
These traits were already present in the turbulent years of 2006-2007, which resulted in Hamas’s election victory and domination of Gaza.
Thus, Israeli security officials from Military Intelligence and the Shin Bet, who monitor and analyse developments in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, are worried.
Fatah fears
According to Israeli security officials, Abbas and his top lieutenants are no less concerned than Israel. They say that Abbas was very reluctant to agree to call the elections.
Abbas’s weakening leadership is challenged by Marwan Barghouti, who is considered the most popular leader among Fatah and Palestinian Authority supporters. So far, all attempts by Abbas to persuade Barghouti to drop his candidacy have failed.
To facilitate Abbas’s aim, Israeli security officials went out of their way to allow the president’s advisers to visit Barghouti in his prison cell, where he is serving multiple life sentences after being convicted of murder by an Israeli court during the Second Intifada.Palestine elections: Gaza voters sceptical about upcoming polls.
But, eventually, Abbas succumbed to the pressure, which was mounted on him by the younger generation of Palestinians that hope to see a change of guard, and by Egypt.
Egypt has over the years played a major role in the attempts to bring about a genuine national Palestinian reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, which has so far failed. Calling the elections is another effort to unify the Palestinian people.
Abbas now faces a dilemma. Without the elections, his attempts to bring national unity and to reinstate Fatah as a significant force in Gaza are doomed to fail. But if the elections take place, Fatah may be defeated again and Hamas would increase its power, not only in its solid base of Gaza but also in the West Bank.
The Israeli security perception is that the elections are a threat.
If Hamas wins the elections, it will increase its self-confidence to challenge Israel more drastically.
Military Intelligence and Shin Bet analysts have already drawn up scenarios arguing that if Hamas emerges as the winner, or only increases its power in the elections, it will employ the same military tactics used in Gaza – launching rockets, planting bombs and using hit and run tactics – against Israeli troops and Jewish settlers in the West Bank.
Israel’s approach is: why rock the boat?
However, there is truly little that Israel can do. It cannot openly oppose the elections, and it knows that it has no real measures to influence them.
Posted on February 20, 2021 by uprootedpalestinians
HearstDavid Hearst is co-founder and editor-in-chief of Middle East Eye. He is a commentator and speaker on the region and analyst on Saudi Arabia. He was The Guardian’s foreign leader writer, and was correspondent in Russia, Europe, and Belfast. He joined the Guardian from The Scotsman, where he was education correspondent.
Both parties are going into the elections without an agreed vision for Palestine and a detailed plan for obtaining it
You can tell when elections are being planned in the occupied West Bank.
This is the fifth time elections across Palestine have been attempted in the past 15 years since they were held in 2006, when Hamas, to everyone’s surprise, not least their own, swept the board. This time President Mahmoud Abbas appears to be serious about holding them.
How can one tell? Because between them his Preventive Security and Israeli forces are arresting anyone who opposes their candidates. The Palestinian Prisoners Club says that 456 civilians were arrested in January in the West Bank and on one night alone in February, 31 Palestinians were rounded up.
A Palestinian member of Central Elections Commission displays an ID to a colleague as they check the work of the first Voter Information and Registration Centre in Gaza City on 10 February, 2021 (AFP)
A serious escalation
The arrests are politically colour blind. Every faction has been targeted – even those that have not yet been established. For over a year, Israeli forces have been targeting hundreds of young men and women from a left-wing social and political network.
Politically motivated arrests are nothing new in the West Bank. What may surprise some is that the Hamas leadership in Gaza is still pushing ahead with the election plan regardless
They face charges of “terrorist activity,” “visiting an enemy state” or even vaguer “communicating with foreign agents”. Their interrogators put them in little doubt about why they are being detained . They want fear to spread in the community. Detention and torture are tools to stop the network before it can grow. Hamas members in the West Bank are threatened they will be next if they dare to stand.
Khaled al-Hajj, a Hamas leader in Jenin who supported President Abbas’s elections decrees, was arrested last week. Another Hamas member, who had just had surgery for cancer, was severely beaten.
Wasfi Kabha, a former Hamas minister, told MEE: “We are facing a dangerous and serious escalation, not only by the occupation, but also by the security services that belong to the PA. That arrest campaign aims to scare, intimidate and terrorise members of the movement and also those who have sympathy for Hamas. The arrests are meant to influence the election. There are many others that the Israeli forces threaten to arrest if they nominate themselves or take part in the elections.”
Kabha added: “The Palestinian security services severely beat Abdel Nasser Rabbi despite the fact he had suffered from cancer and had surgery a short time ago. Unfortunately, Palestinian security services finish the job of whoever Israel can not manage to arrest.”
Politically motivated arrests are nothing new in the West Bank. What may surprise some is that the Hamas leadership in Gaza is still pushing ahead with the election plan regardless.
A divided Hamas
The interesting question is why? During three rounds of negotiations with Fatah in Beirut and Ankara, the Hamas leadership insisted on holding all three elections for the Legislative Council , the presidency, and the National Council of the PLO simultaneously. This is because they did not trust Abbas to keep his word once he himself had been reelected as president.After 15-year wait, Palestinian elections face new obstacles following law amendments
Hamas also insisted that the PA end its security cooperation with Israel and the arrest campaign in the West Bank. For a while Abbas complied, only to abandon that strategy when it became clear to him last November that Donald Trump was out of office. In subsequent talks in Cairo, Hamas failed to get either demand.
The other two factions, the Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), both tabled reservations. Islamic Jihad announced it was not running for the elections, but the delegation from Hamas stayed in.
Proponents of the deal with Fatah claim that Hamas were given guarantees that some 38,000 civil servants in Gaza would not only be paid by the PA, but receive permanent tenure. They claim a new election court would be formed to avoid the heavily weighted constitutional court that Abbas created. They also claim Hamas would secure the collaboration of the international community, including renewing relations with the European Union. They also claim that no one could criminalise the resistance.
Opponents of the deal within Hamas say all of these promises are wishful thinking. They point out that the issue of civil servants, which is at least a decade old, has been put off until after the elections. A new election court has not been announced by Abbas and, even if it were to be formed, it could not supplant the existing constitutional court, which remains the highest legal authority in the West Bank.
Lastly, they say that it is not in Fatah’s power to guarantee international recognition of Hamas, which is still designated as a terrorist organisation by both the US and the EU.
This combination of pictures created on 11 January, 2019 shows (L) Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh (AFP)
Hamas’s senior leadership is clearly divided. Hamas in Gaza is hemmed in, unable to break out of the prison camp that has become Gaza following the 2006 elections, the attempted coup by Fatah leader Mohammed Dahlan, and the split with Fatah. They are fed up with being held responsible for the continuing siege and are desperate to find a way out. Money is also running out. Iran is no longer funding them as before, and there are signs that other foreign backers are pushing them into Fatah’s arms. Israel’s arrest campaign aims to destroy a new Palestinian movement
But the anger at the crackdown on Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the PFLP members in the West Bank is mounting. While there is sympathy over the conditions they face in Gaza, the Hamas leadership, which is now based entirely in the enclave, will face mounting pressure to pull out of elections in which Hamas can only lose.
No one expects a rerun of the 2006 result.
One measure of the backlash which the leadership in Gaza will face is spelled out in a leaked letter from one of the most prominent Hamas leaders in Israeli prisons. Ibrahim Hamid was a leader of the military wing in the West Bank during the Second Intifada and received one of the harshest terms: 54 concurrent life imprisonment sentences. Hamid called the decision by Hamas’ political bureau to run in the elections “hasty”.
He said the decision had been made independently of the Shura Council, a consultative body that elects Hamas’s politburo, and without the full knowledge of the prisoners’ movement. Ibrahim added that running for the elections would only serve Abbas’s purpose of reviving his legitimacy while curtailing that of Hamas.
In Hamid’s analysis, Hamas is facing a lose/lose scenario: should it win the elections, what is to prevent a repeat of the 2006 scenario, which launched the siege of Gaza and the split with Fatah? Should it lose the elections, would Hamas hand over both the administration and its rockets to Fatah in Gaza?
Even if Abbas kept his word and created a genuinely representative national Palestinian government, and Hamas was allowed to return to parliament and enter the PLO, what would stop Israel from arresting MPs as they do now?
Fatah’s problems
Fatah is faring no better. Abbas’s drive to refresh his mandate and seek the legitimacy he has lost as one of the architects of Oslo is being threatened by two other Fatah leaders. Abbas has long been aware of the plan which I first revealed in 2016 to replace him with his arch-rival Dahlan.
The plan for a post-Abbas era was hatched by the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Egypt. Since 2016, Egypt and Jordan have not stopped pressuring Abbas to reconcile with Dahlan. The latest message was passed to Abbas when Egypt and Jordan’s heads of intelligence visited Ramallah recently.
The new card in this operation is the man who ran against Abbas and then withdrew his candidacy in the 2005 presidential election, the Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, a leader of the First and Second Intifadas who is in prison on five concurrent life sentences.
Barghouti remains a consistently popular figure of the resistance. At one point he polled higher than both Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, for the post of president. In April 2017 Barghouti organised a hunger strike of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
This time round, Barghouti announced his intention to run for the presidency and the PNC through one of his supporters, Raafat Ilayyan. Ilayyan quoted Barghouti as saying that a united Fatah list “should be open to all including those accused of taking sides and those sacked from the movement”.
A man holds a photo of prominent Palestinian prisoner Marwan Barghouti calling for his release during a rally on 17 April 2017 (AFP)
This was a clear reference to Dahlan, who lives in exile and has been sentenced in absentia to three years in prison on corruption charges and expelled from the party. Dahlan’s lawyer at the time called the conviction a “cleansing exercise” for Abbas.
Does Fatah want to liberate Palestine from the occupation, or does it want to govern as a surrogate for Israel, whatever conditions it is put under?
After nearly two decades behind bars, Barghouti wants to get out of jail. Is Dahlan, who is Israel’s preferred Palestinian leader, the Fatah leader’s get out of jail card? Barghouti’s announcement ruffled feathers in Fatah. Jibril Rajoub, secretary general of Fatah’s central committee, who led negotiations with Hamas, accused foreign countries of meddling in the Palestinian elections.
Rajoub told Palestinian TV: “Some messages have been received from some countries trying to interfere in the path of dialogue, including Arab states which rushed [to normalise relations with Israel]. However, Fatah’s position is clear and does not take directions from any foreign capital.”
In their campaign to position Dahlan as the next Palestinian leader, Egypt, Jordan and UAE are keen to exploit the distrust between Fatah and Hamas. The latest sign of this is the arrival of the first of what will be a large group of Dahlan men in Gaza after many years in exile. This could only have been achieved with the consent of Hamas leaders in Gaza.
The true winner of the election may, therefore, be a man who does not even stand on the ballot. One way or another, Dahlan is determined to return to Palestine at the expense of both Abbas and Hamas.
.@yarahawari: "Palestinian elections are nothing but political theatrics to provide cover for the fact that among the main actors there is no interest in promoting a representative & accountable Palestinian leadership & a democratic Palestinian society. https://t.co/VSVpRbg1d6pic.twitter.com/m4XBZR4WYc
The jockeying for position within Fatah is about power. But aside from this, Fatah has a real problem with its identity and its purpose. Does Fatah want to liberate Palestine from the occupation, or does it want to govern as a surrogate for Israel, whatever conditions it is put under?
Rajoub and Dahlan are sworn enemies only because they are rivals. Neither has a vision for a free Palestine. Abbas momentarily found his voice as a Palestinian leader in pushing back against the normalisation of ties with Israel, which he called a betrayal. But as soon it became clear Trump was on his way out, Abbas tossed his principles out of the window and returned to business as usual both with Washington and Israel.
The real leaders
Who then are the real leaders of this struggle? For this, we should not look to elections but to what is happening on the streets because it is only here that liberation movements are reborn. That was the case when the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat started Fatah and when Hamas became a dominant force in the First Intifada. No one, either in Ramallah or Gaza, is leading or directing events that are now taking place in Palestine.
Israel is playing a delaying game, and unhappily, both Fatah and Hamas leaders are playing into its hands
It has been a long time since there were major demonstrations by Palestinian citizens of Israel. Earlier this month, protests erupted in several towns and villages. The spark this time is the crime rate and the lack of policing. But the Palestinian flags and the slogans tell a different story, one that has not been seen or heard since the First Intifada.
There are more and more youth initiatives taking root in the West Bank, including the one Israeli forces are so keen to dismantle. There is clearly a new generation of protest underway that is independent of Fatah, Hamas or the now divided Joint List in the Israeli Knesset.
In the diaspora, the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement (BDS) is becoming an international movement. This, too, is independent of any Palestinian leadership. Rudderless, there is every chance that a new Palestinian movement in and outside Palestine will seize control.
Israel is playing a delaying game, and, unhappily, leaders of both Fatah and Hamas – one crippled by its decision to recognise Israel, the other imprisoned by it – are playing into its hands. If this continues, the impetus to break the deadlock will come from the streets, as it always has done in the past.
No vision
What a contrast Palestinian leaders make to other liberation movements. When Nelson Mandela walked out of prison on 11 February 1990, he made a speech that resonates to this day. He said the armed struggle would continue until apartheid collapsed. He called on the international community to continue the boycott of the apartheid regime.
Mandela and the ANC showed determination and vision to the end. Both are sadly lacking in Palestine
“The factors which necessitated the armed struggle still exist today. We have no option but to continue. We express the hope that a climate conducive to a negotiated settlement would be created soon so that there may no longer be the need for the armed struggle… To lift sanctions now would be to run the risk of aborting the process towards the complete eradication of apartheid. Our march to freedom is irreversible. We must not allow fear to stand in our way,” Mandela said.
Compare this to what Fatah has done. It signed the Oslo agreement that criminalised the armed struggle and opened the way for Israel to normalise its relations with China, the Soviet Union in its last days, India and many African countries. Oslo gave nothing to the Palestinians. It ended up giving a lot to Israel, culminating in the opening of embassies in Abu Dhabi and Manama.
The Palestinian Authority created by Oslo became a surrogate of Israeli forces, even when Israel was starving Ramallah of tax revenue collected on its behalf. In Abbas’s own words, the PA provided Israel with “the cheapest occupation in history”.
Mandela and the African National Congress showed determination and vision to the end. Both are sadly lacking in Palestine. The mice of this struggle are in Ramallah. The lions are on the street – where they have always been.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.David
Posted on February 1, 2021 by uprootedpalestinians
**English Machine translation Please scroll down for the Arabic original version **
All Palestinian factions have been plunged into a detailed debate about the elections, without even placing them in the balance of need and benefit. Everyone was silent on the way and timing chosen by the authority’s president, Mahmoud Abbas, to hold the elections, Hamas, accepted the decrees. Abbas wants to elect the “Legislative Council”, then the presidency, as the “National Council of the Liberation Organisation”, However, Abbas” wants to ensure that he remains in his chair, and to prepare plans to contain “Hamas” or reduce its representation, Fatah faces serious divisions that could fragment the movement in his life before he leaves, a scenario that he has not been accounted for and is now firmly working to prevent. The only constant is that as long as he is alive, he will not budge from his position, and that what forced him to hold elections is only the American-European, Arab, requests for the considerations of each party. Hamas, which advocates that it is “compelled” to run in elections and pressured it — in a repetition of the 2006 scenario — has decided to work to harvest the majority if possible, while Islamic Jihad remains on its previous position, with the possibility of participating in the “national” elections in whether it will lead to a change in the PLO’s doctrine. Between this and that, the organisation’s factions and “independent” figures assess the proportions they can get to cross the entry threshold, and better alliances if they are forced.
Ramallah | Since PA President Mahmoud Abbas issued a presidential decree setting a date for the elections, as a result of a U.S.-European-Arab request to renew “legitimacy” and arrange the region, internal “Fateh” differences have begun to surface, foreshadowing divisions within the movement that may contest the elections with three lists: one affiliated with the Central Committee and supporting Abbas, the second supported by the prisoner Marwan Barghouti and the youth group, and the third for the current dismissed leader Mohammed Dahlan (reformist) will continue to count on Fatah even if the latter rejects it.
PFLP has not resolved its position on participation because it doubts Abbas’s intentions (APA)
The “Fateh” projections indicate Barghouti’s intention to run for president, and to form a list in the legislative elections that precede it, a “nightmare” that haunts Fatah’s first-grade leaders. But Marwan’s son, Kassam Barghouti, said his father “does not yet have an official position on the matter… On Tuesday, the date of the lawyer’s visit to Barghouti will be conveyed from him, pointing out that “everything that is rumoured in the press is not official.” However, according to well-informed sources in the movement, who preferred not to be named, the subject is “very sensitive”, so within days he will meet the secretary of Fateh’s central committee, Jibril Rajoub, Barghouti in prison to dissuade him from running against Abbas, and to try to satisfy him by putting him at the top of Fateh’s list in the legislative council. The sources add: «Barghouti is very angry with the behaviour of the authority about his case, and feels that he was left alone, especially in the strike of dignity announced years ago,» but «it is unlikely to depart from the framework of the movement because it is one of its founders».
A few days ago, Fateh leaders Azzam al-Ahmad and Jamal Nazzal vowed that the movement would hold accountable any of its members who might fight it by running independently “difficult”, but Al-Ahmad added that “Barghouti is cut off from politics and spent his life in prison, and cannot meet the wishes of our people”! However, Fateh’s legislative member Hatem Abdel Kader told Al-Akhbar that, according to Barghouti’ lawyer, the man would run for president, but we do not know how the “Fateh” pressure will affect him. Barghouti entered his 19th year in Israeli prisons on charges of leading formations of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the military wing of Fateh, while circles close to him are rumoured to have many concerns about his fate, and what he is currently interested in getting out of prison, especially if there is a prisoner exchange at the hands of the resistance.
Away from the man’s position on running for the presidency, there is a “Fateh” approach calling, if the official movement’s list does not meet the conditions that would ensure its success (e.g., including competent, honest, experienced, professional and militant personalities), to create another list that meets the previous conditions, says Abdel Kader, noting that Abbas has threatened to use “force” against any other list called Fateh, a rival to that official. Other sources confirm Abdel Kader’s speech, saying that there is a list led by al-Shabaab ( young people), which will be supported by Barghouti, and that there may be figures from the Central Committee and other authority at the Level of the West Bank and Gaza. This list is “a haven for disgruntled people to power, and by the way they will not ally with Dahlan, but may be coordinated after the elections if they win, with the aim of restoring consideration to Fatah,” the sources added.
There is an official list of “central” and another for Dahlan and a third supported by Barghouti
As for the “reformist”, he intends to participate in a parallel list and promote it with leaders Dahlan is working to buy the loyalty of some of them inf the West Bank and Gaza, and he appointed a few days ago two spokespersons of the current, the owners of the “shocking names of Fatah and the Authority”, according to sources close to his current. “Dahlan has monitored this list and its success in tens of millions of dollars with UAE funding.” The current spokesman, Imad Mohsen, has already said that if Fateh does not include them in its list, “we will go to the elections with an independent list of legal and academic Fateh figures, because the free Fateh will not be driven like a herd based on the whims of one person,” referring to Abbas.
Commenting on these divisions, Fatah leader Abdullah Abdullah told Al-Akhbar that Dahlan is no longer Fatah, and therefore his descent into the elections does not affect the unity of the movement. Barghouti will be contacted by the Central Committee, stressing that it is the frameworks of the movement (the central, the revolutionary council and the advisory council) that decide the presidential candidate, “and if you decide a name, everyone should abide by it… I don’t think Barghouti sings outside Fatah.” With regard to the electoral map and the official list, Abdullah said: “After the Cairo meeting, we will determine who will be at the top of the list based on the ideas that will be presented at the meeting, and we will decide whether the movement will be at the top of the list alone or with other factions of the PLO, and we will not anticipate the events.”
Dahlan’s current realises that Fatah’s polarisation will be a factor in his favour in the elections, as there has already been a split in the movement’s leaders’ statements about its presidential candidate. However, The Kaban’s egg remains in Barghouti’s hand, which public opinion polls show is the most popular Palestinian in the West Bank at least, the most recent of which was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Political and Research Research (PSR) a few days ago, with Barghouti winning 61% of the vote if he was placed not in front of Abbas, but in front of Hamas’ political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh. According to the same poll, if Haniyeh is placed in front of Abbas, the former will get 50% against 43% for the second. The Center also estimated that if Barghouti forms an independent list, he will get 25% of the public vote, while 19% of the public said that in this case they will vote for the official Fatah list, which is confirmed by a source in the Ramallah government who said that «50% of the official Fatah prefers Barghouti for the presidency over Abbas». As for Dahlan, the poll predicted that his current list would get 7% of the public, while in this case 27% would vote for Fateh’s official list against him.
Recommendations have been issued to the government in Gaza to improve dealing with people and avoid any problems (AFP)
Hamas continues to prepare and prepare its initial list for legislative elections, while Islamic Jihad continues to consider the possibility of contesting elections of its origin and any parts it may participate in, and the two issues remain awaiting the outcome of the Cairo Dialogues
Gaza | As part of Palestinian preparations for the first part of the elections next May, a Hamas source told Al-Akhbar that the movement has prepared its initial list of legislative elections, including Gaza and the West Bank, but is “considering options other than entering a single list in its name,” including “the possibility of a list of alliances with resistance factions, and with independents, to achieve an appropriate number of seats,” stressing that the directives of the Political Bureau and the Shura Council approved the entry of the elections strongly and work to win more than 2006 elections.
Although Hamas has not begun to “mobilise the organisational cadre” for the elections and implement the popular mobilisation plan to vote for it in Gaza, it has completed the formation of its central and sub-committees to implement its campaign based on the Program of Resistance and Resilience in the Face of Occupation, the source says, which reveals instructions to the Government branch in Gaza to “complete the efforts that have been strengthened over the past two years to improve the reality of government work with the population, prevent any current crises, and provide all necessary services to citizens.” The initial list includes symbolic figures in the movement, as well as the young faces whose number swelled, noting that the largest share will be professional and community figures with a large presence within Gaza and the West Bank, as the movement seeks to avoid the problems of 2006, when the main criticism was that its list consisted mostly of sheikhs and graduates of sharia colleges.
Regardless of the nature of the list, Hamas has resolved its intention to participate strongly
At the same time, the source says, the movement has developed a number of scenarios for the elections, including a single list or a list with Fatah, a list with resistance factions or even a list with “independents,” but will wait for the outcome of the Cairo dialogues next week to determine the nature of their participation, and which scenarios will result in the biggest victory. These dialogues, it seems, will be a watershed in evaluating the elections and their seriousness, the source explains, adding that “we have formed committees to process the files for dialogue in the issues of justice, security, personnel and the reality of the situation in Gaza, the West Bank and freedom of expression… We have also formed a central high committee in the political bureau to follow up on the legislative elections.”
Although it seeks to win the most seats, Hamas does not want to form a government alone if it wins a majority, but rather favours a government of national unity or a competent government to avoid a new blockade. The “Hamas” position on the mobilisation for the National Assembly elections remains the same, but the decision to enter the presidential elections has not yet been decided, to be discussed after the results of the “legislative”
In contrast, The Islamic Jihad has not resolved its position on participating in the legislative council elections, preferring to discuss the move after the Cairo dialogues, according to statements by its leaders. However, sources said that there are opinions within the movement pushing towards partial participation, as opposed to a majority rejecting the origin of participation that the movement has avoided many times before while announcing that it continues to adopt the option of resistance, away from the secretions of the Oslo Agreement all. While Jihad has a strong desire to enter the National elections under certain conditions, it has postponed discussions on these conditions until it is sure that these elections, scheduled for the end of the eighth month, can take place, and the movement has not resolved its position on the presidential elections and any figures that could support them through its cadres.
PFLP has not resolved its position on participation because it doubts Abbas’s intentions (APA)
Palestine (PFLP), has not resolved its position on participating in the elections. This is because he continues to question the intentions of the authority’s president, Mahmoud Abbas, and the possibility of using the Constitutional Court against his opponents if Fatah does not win. Al-Shaabia (PFLP) shares its participation with consensus in Cairo on the points of contention, most notably “the formation of the electoral court by national consensus away from the uniqueness and manipulation that took place in the Supreme Council for the Elimination of Abbas”, as confirmed by the Deputy Secretary-General of the Front, Abu Ahmed Fouad.
A leading source in al-Shaabia (PFLP), told Al-Akhbar, that the Central Committee and the Political Bureau have not yet decided on the decision to participate, but confirms that “all options are available, including participation in a national list of all factions, alliance with Hamas, or a single list similar to the 2006 elections” in which the FRONT won 4.2% by three seats. The source points out that there is internal opposition to entering into a unified list with the organization’s factions, including Fatah, for fear of exploiting the list, strengthening its uniqueness with the Palestinian decision, strengthening its political program based on negotiations with the occupation, as well as differences with Fatah that have not been resolved at all.
The front refused to be under the umbrella of Fateh and shared one list
In parallel, Fatah is seeking to bring together PLO factions to enter into a single list with them in the legislative elections. Since the decision to hold the elections, the organisation’s factions have held meetings, most recently in the middle of last month, to discuss how they will enter the elections and achieve good results that will cover their weak popularity. Fearing the exposure of its low popularity, a number of them are seeking to form a unified list to bypass the threshold and entry of the Legislative Council, which was called for by The Democratic Front’s Central Committee member, Mahmoud Khalaf.
DPFLP meetings include the People’s Party, the Popular Struggle Front, the Palestine Liberation Front, the Palestine Arab Front, and the Palestinian Arab Front, factions that did not get the decisive percentage in the 2006 elections, and fear that their presence would end because some of them adhered to the positions of the authority, the latter’s use of them in many positions, as well as their ineffectiveness in the popular arena. Therefore, it wants to boost its chances now to achieve more than 10% for all of them, but the fear of disagreements over the formation of a unified list among them has led some to demand a reduction of the discount rate to 1% unlike the previous rate, 2%. Democracy wants to expand the alliance of the organisation’s factions this time to achieve better results than it did in 2006, when it allied itself with the People and Fida and garnered 2.7% of the vote, and is now struggling to include the Liberation Front, which won the last election 0.3%, in addition to the Palestinian Arab, which received 0.4%, and the Palestinian Initiative (Mustafa Barghouti and others.) which got 2.72%.
The presidential decree on legislative elections does not allow “independents” to run individually, prompting a number of them to form their own lists, leaving themselves as a rival and alternative to factions, taking advantage of the decline in popular confidence of the majority of the organisations. “Independent” figures in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip are preparing to form several lists, while a number of factions are considering an alliance with those including Hamas and Fatah to consolidate the seats they will win in the elections.
With the “Gathering of Independent Personalities” welcomed the election decree, sources in the group revealed that a number of figures under his banner are seriously considering running in the elections on a special list, amid expectations that this list will get “satisfactory results with the high popularity of a number of them and the desire of the street to change and end the division.”
Al-Akhbar learned that the former prime minister, Salam Fayyad, is preparing to enter the elections at the top of a list of independents that includes personalities from Gaza and the West Bank, as happened in the 2006 elections in which he won two seats, but his partner in the last elections, Hanan Ashrawi, announced that she would not run This election, as well as her disagreement with him.
غرقت الفصائل الفلسطينية كافة في النقاش التفصيلي حول الانتخابات، من دون وضعها أصلاً في ميزان الحاجة والفائدة. سكت الكلّ على الطريقة والتوقيت اللذين اختارهما رئيس السلطة، محمود عباس، لإجراء الانتخابات، وتحديداً «حماس» التي قبلت «المراسيم» كما هي من دون اعتراض. يريد عباس انتخاب «المجلس التشريعي»، ثمّ الرئاسة، فـ«المجلس الوطني لمنظمة التحرير»، والأخيران تحصيل حاصل لخريطة القوى التي ستظهر في الأول. لكن مع احتياطات «أبو مازن» لضمان بقائه على كرسيّه، وإعداده خططاً لاحتواء «حماس» أو تقليل نسبة تمثيلها، تواجه «فتح» انقسامات خطيرة قد تُشظّي الحركة في حياته قبل رحيله، وهو السيناريو الذي لم يكن يحسب له حساباً ويعمل الآن بقوة على منعه. الثابت الوحيد أنه ما دام حيّاً، فلن يتزحزح عن منصبه، وأن ما اضطره إلى إجراء الانتخابات ليس سوى الطلبَين الأميركي – الأوروبي، والعربي، لاعتبارات كلّ طرف. أمّا «حماس»، التي تدافع بأنها «مضطرة» لخوض الانتخابات وأن ضغوطاً تمارَس عليها – في تكرار لسيناريو 2006 -، فقرّرت العمل على حصاد الغالبية لو أمكن، فيما لا تزال «الجهاد الإسلامي» على موقفها السابق، مع إمكانية للمشاركة في انتخابات «الوطني» في ما إذا كانت ستؤدي إلى تغيير في عقيدة «منظّمة التحرير». بين هذا وذاك، تُقيّم فصائل المنظّمة والشخصيات «المستقلّة» النسب التي يمكن أن تحصل عليها لتتخطّى عتبة الدخول، والتحالفات الأفضل في حال اضطّرت لها.
رام الله | منذ أن أصدر رئيس السلطة الفلسطينية، محمود عباس، مرسوماً رئاسياً بتحديد موعد للانتخابات، جرّاء طلب أميركي ــــ أوروبي ــــ عربي تحت عنوان تجديد «الشرعيات» وترتيب الإقليم، بدأت الخلافات «الفتحاوية» الداخلية تطفو على السطح، ما ينذر بانقسامات داخل الحركة التي قد تخوض الانتخابات بثلاث قوائم: الأولى تابعة لـ«اللجنة المركزية» وتدعم عباس، والثانية يدعمها الأسير مروان البرغوثي وفئة الشباب، والثالثة لتيار القيادي المفصول محمد دحلان (الإصلاحي) ستبقى تُحسب على «فتح» حتى لو رفضتها الأخيرة.
لم تحسم «الشعبيّة» موقفها من المشاركة لأنها تشكّك في نيّات عبّاس (أي بي أيه )
تشير التوقّعات «الفتحاوية» إلى نية البرغوثي ترشيح نفسه للرئاسة، وتشكيل قائمة في انتخابات المجلس التشريعي التي تسبقها، وهو «كابوس» يؤرّق قيادات الصف الأول في «فتح». لكن نجل مروان، قسام البرغوثي، قال إن أباه «ليس لديه حتى الآن موقف رسمي حيال الأمر… غداً الثلاثاء موعد زيارة المحامي للبرغوثي وسينقل عنه موقفه»، مشيراً إلى أن «كلّ ما يشاع في الصحافة ليس رسمياً». مع ذلك، تقول مصادر مطّلعة في الحركة، فضّلت عدم ذكر اسمها، إن الموضوع «حسّاس جداً»، ولذلك سيلتقي خلال أيام أمين سرّ «اللجنة المركزية لفتح»، جبريل الرجوب، البرغوثي في السجن ليثنيه عن الترشّح ضدّ عباس، ولمحاولة إرضائه بوضعه على رأس قائمة «فتح» في المجلس التشريعي. تضيف المصادر: «البرغوثي غاضب جداً من سلوك السلطة حيال قضيته، ويشعر بأنه تُرك وحيداً وخاصةً في إضراب الكرامة الذي أعلنه قبل سنوات»، لكن «يُستبعد أن يخرج عن إطار الحركة لأنه من مؤسِّسيها».
وقبل أيام، توعّد القياديان في «فتح»، عزام الأحمد وجمال نزال، بأن الحركة ستحاسب أيّاً من أعضائها الذين قد يحاربونها بترشّحهم مستقلّين «حساباً عسيراً»، لكن الأحمد زاد على ذلك بالقول إن «البرغوثي منقطع عن السياسة وأمضى عمره في السجون، ولا يستطيع تلبية أمنيات شعبنا»! مع ذلك، يقول عضو «التشريعي» عن «فتح»، حاتم عبد القادر، لـ«الأخبار»، إنه وفقاً لما نُقل عن البرغوثي عبر محاميه، سيُرشّح الرجل نفسه للرئاسة، لكن لا ندري كيف ستؤثّر الضغوط «الفتحاويه» عليه. يُذكر أن البرغوثي دخل عامه الـ 19 في سجون الاحتلال بتهمة قيادة تشكيلات لـ«كتائب شهداء الأقصى»، الجناح العسكري المحلول لـ«فتح»، فيما تشيع أوساط مقرّبة منه أن لديه هواجس كثيرة حيال مصيره، وما يهمّه حالياً الخروج من السجن، وخاصة إن كان هناك تبادل أسرى على يد المقاومة.
بعيداً من موقف الرجل من الترشّح للرئاسة، ثمّة توجّه «فتحاوي» يدعو، في حال كانت قائمة الحركة الرسمية لا تلبّي الشروط الكفيلة بإنجاحها (كأن تضمّ شخصيات ذات كفاءة ونزاهة وخبرة وسيرة مشرّفة مهنياً ونضالياً)، إلى إنشاء قائمة أخرى تُلبّي الشروط السابقة، كما يقول عبد القادر، علماً بأن عباس هدّد باستخدام «القوة» ضدّ أيّ قائمة أخرى باسم «فتح» منافِسة لتلك الرسمية. وتؤكّد مصادر أخرى حديث عبد القادر، قائلة إن هناك قائمة يقودها الشباب، وسيدعمها البرغوثي، ويُحتمل أن تكون فيها شخصيات من «اللجنة المركزية» وأخرى من السلطة على مستوى الضفة وغزة. وهذه القائمة «ملاذ الساخطين على السلطة، وهم بالمناسبة لن يتحالفوا مع دحلان، لكن ربّما يجري التنسيق معه بعد الانتخابات في حال فوزهم، بهدف إعادة الاعتبار إلى فتح»، تضيف المصادر.
ثمّة قائمة رسميّة من «المركزية» وأخرى لدحلان وثالثة يدعمها البرغوثي
أمّا «الإصلاحي»، فينوي المشاركة بقائمة موازية وتعزيزها بقيادات يعمل دحلان على شراء ولاء بعضهم على مستويَي الضفة وغزة، وهو قد عيّن قبل أيّام متحدّثَين رسميَّين للتيار، هما من أصحاب «الأسماء الصادمة لفتح والسلطة»، كما تقول مصادر مقرّبة من تيّاره. وتضيف: «دحلان رصد لهذه القائمة وإنجاحها مبالغ ضخمة بعشرات الملايين من الدولارات بتمويل إماراتي». وسبق أن قال المتحدّث باسم التيار، عماد محسن، إنه في حال لم تُدخلهم «فتح» في قائمتها، «فسنذهب إلى الانتخابات بقائمة مستقلّة تحتوي على شخصيات فتحاوية اعتبارية وأكاديميين، لأن الفتحاوي الحر لن يساق مثل القطيع بناءً على أهواء شخص واحد»، في إشارة إلى عباس. تعقيباً على هذه الانقسامات، يقول القيادي في «فتح»، عبد الله عبد الله، لـ«الأخبار»، إن «دحلان لم يعد من فتح، ولذلك نزوله في الانتخابات لا يؤثّر في وحدة الحركة. أمّا البرغوثي، فستتواصل معه اللجنة المركزية»، مؤكّداً أن أطر الحركة (المركزية والمجلس الثوري والمجلس الاستشاري) هي التي تُقرّر مرشح الرئاسة، «وإذا قرّرت اسماً، على الجميع أن يلتزم بذلك… لا أعتقد أن يغرّد البرغوثي خارج فتح». وفي ما يتعلّق بالخريطة الانتخابية والقائمة الرسمية، يقول عبد الله: «بعد لقاء القاهرة، سنُحدّد مَن يكون على رأس القائمة بناءً على الأفكار التي ستُطرح في اللقاء، وسنقرّر هل ستكون الحركة على رأس قائمة وحدها أم مع غيرها من فصائل منظّمة التحرير، ولن نستبق الأحداث».
يدرك تيار دحلان أن حالة الاستقطاب التي تعيشها «مركزية فتح» ستكون عاملاً لمصلحته في الانتخابات، إذ سبق أن ظهر انقسام في تصريحات قادة الحركة حول مرشّحها للرئاسة. مع ذلك، تبقى بيضة القبّان بيد البرغوثي، الذي تُظهر استطلاعات الرأي العام أنه الأكثر شعبية «فتحاوياً» وفلسطينياً ــــ في الضفة على الأقل ــــ، وآخرها استطلاع أجراه «المركز الفلسطيني للبحوث السياسية والبحثية» قبل أيام، وكانت نتيجته تفوّق البرغوثي بحصوله على 61% من الأصوات في حال وُضع ليس أمام عباس، بل أمام رئيس المكتب السياسي لـ«حماس»، إسماعيل هنية. وبحسب الاستطلاع نفسه، فإنه في حال وُضع هنية أمام عباس، يحصل الأول على 50% مقابل 43% للثاني. كما قَدّر المركز أنه إذا شَكّل البرغوثي قائمة مستقلّة، فسيحصل على 25% من أصوات الجمهور، فيما قال 19% من الجمهور إنهم سيصوّتون في هذه الحالة لقائمة «فتح» الرسمية، وهو ما يؤكّده مصدر في حكومة رام الله قال إن «50% من فتح الرسمية تُفضّل البرغوثي للرئاسة على عباس». أمّا بشأن دحلان، فتَوقّع الاستطلاع أن تحصل قائمة تيّاره على 7% من الجمهور، في حين أن 27٪ سيُصوّتون في هذه الحالة لقائمة «فتح» الرسمية ضدّه.
صدرت توصيات للحكومة في غزة بتحسين التعامل مع الناس وتجنّب أيّ إشكالات (أ ف ب )
تُواصل «حماس» استعداداتها وتجهيز قائمتها الأوّلية للانتخابات التشريعية، فيما لا تزال «الجهاد الإسلامي» تتدارس إمكانية خوض الانتخابات من أصلها وأيّ أجزاء يمكن أن تشارك فيها، والمسألتان تبقيان في انتظار ما ستفرزه «حوارات القاهرة»غزة | في إطار الاستعدادات الفلسطينية للانتخابات المنوي عقد الجزء الأول منها (البرلمان) في أيار/ مايو المقبل، يقول مصدر في «حماس»، لـ«الأخبار»، إن الحركة أعدّت قائمتها الأوّلية للانتخابات التشريعية بما يشمل غزة والضفة، لكنها «تدرس خيارات أخرى غير الدخول بقائمة منفردة باسمها»، ومنها «إمكانية عقد قائمة تحالفات مع فصائل المقاومة، وأخرى مع مستقلّين، بما يحقق لها عدداً مناسباً من المقاعد»، مؤكداً أن «توجيهات المكتب السياسي ومجلس الشورى أقرّت بضرورة دخول الانتخابات بقوة والعمل على الفوز بنسبة أكبر من انتخابات 2006».
ومع أن «حماس» لم تبدأ «استنهاض الكادر التنظيمي» للانتخابات، وتنفيذ خطّة التحشيد الشعبي للتصويت لها في غزة، فإنها أكملت تشكيل لجانها المركزية والفرعية لتنفيذ حملتها القائمة على «برنامج المقاومة والصمود في وجه الاحتلال»، كما ينقل المصدر، الذي يكشف عن صدور تعليمات للجهاز الحكومي في غزة بـ«استكمال الجهود التي تَعزّزت خلال العامين الماضيين في تحسين واقع العمل الحكومي مع السكّان، ومنع ظهور أيّ أزمات حالياً، وتقديم كلّ ما يَلزم من خدمات إلى المواطنين». وتشمل القائمة الأوّلية شخصيات رمزية في الحركة، إلى جانب الوجوه الشابّة التي ازداد عددها، علماً بأن الحصّة الكبرى ستكون لشخصيات مهنية ومجتمعية ذات حضور كبير داخل غزة والضفة، إذ تسعى الحركة بوجودهم إلى تلافي إشكالات 2006، حين تمحور الانتقاد الرئيسي حول أن قائمتها تتشكّل غالبيتها من الشيوخ وخرّيجي الكلّيات الشرعية.
بغضّ النظر عن طبيعة القائمة، حسمت «حماس» نيّتها المشاركة بقوّة
بموازاة ذلك، يقول المصدر إن الحركة وضعت عدداً من السيناريوات للانتخابات، منها الدخول بقائمة منفردة أو بقائمة مع «فتح» أو بقائمة مع فصائل المقاومة أو حتى قائمة مع “المستقلّين”، لكنها ستنتظر ما ستفضي إليه حوارات القاهرة الأسبوع المقبل لتحديد طبيعة مشاركتها، وأيّ السيناريوات ستُحقّق لها أكبر فوز. هذه الحوارات، كما يبدو، ستكون محطّة فاصلة في تقييم الانتخابات وجدّيتها، كما يشرح المصدر، مضيفاً «(أننا) شَكّلنا لجاناً لتجهيز الملفّات الخاصة بالحوار في قضايا القضاء والأمن والموظفين وواقع الحال في غزة والضفة وحرية التعبير… أيضاً شَكّلنا لجنة عليا مركزية في المكتب السياسي لمتابعة الانتخابات التشريعية». وعلى رغم سعيها إلى الفوز بأكبر قدر من المقاعد، إلا أن «حماس» لا ترغب في تشكيل الحكومة وحدها مجدّداً في حال نيلها الغالبية، بل هي تُفضّل تأليف حكومة وحدة وطنية أو حكومة كفاءات لتلافي حصار جديد. أمّا الموقف “الحمساوي” في شأن الحشد لانتخابات «المجلس الوطني» فلا يزال هو نفسه، لكن لم يُحسم بعد القرار بالدخول في الانتخابات الرئاسية، على أن يناقَش ذلك بعد نتائج “التشريعية”.
في المقابل، لم تحسم حركة «الجهاد الإسلامي» موقفها بخصوص المشاركة في انتخابات «المجلس التشريعي»، مُفضِّلة أيضاً مناقشة هذه الخطوة بعد حوارات القاهرة، طبقاً لتصريحات قياديين فيها. لكن مصادر قالت إن هناك آراء داخل الحركة تدفع نحو المشاركة الجزئية، مقابل غالبية ترفض أصل المشاركة التي تَجنّبتها الحركة مرّات سابقاً مع إعلان استمرارها في تبنّي خيار المقاومة، بعيداً من إفرازات “اتفاقية أوسلو” كافة. وبينما لدى «الجهاد» رغبة كبيرة في دخول انتخابات «الوطني» ضمن شروط معينة، أرجأت التباحث في هذه الشروط حتى التأكّد من إمكانية حدوث هذه الانتخابات المُقرَّرة نهاية الشهر الثامن، كما لم تحسم الحركة موقفها من الانتخابات الرئاسية وأيّ شخصيات يمكن أن تدعمها عبر كوادرها.
لم تحسم «الشعبيّة» موقفها من المشاركة لأنها تشكّك في نيّات عبّاس (أي بي أيه )
لم يحسم الفصيل الأكبر في «منظّمة التحرير الفلسطينية» بعد حركة «فتح»، «الجبهة الشعبية لتحرير فلسطين»، موقفه من المشاركة في الانتخابات. مردّ ذلك أنه لا يزال يُشكّك في نيّات رئيس السلطة، محمود عباس، وإمكانية استخدامه المحكمة الدستورية ضدّ خصومه في حال لم يحالف الفوزُ «فتح». وتربط «الشعبية» مشاركتها بالتوافق في القاهرة على النقاط الخلافية، وأبرزها «تشكيل محكمة الانتخابات بتوافق وطني بعيداً من التفرّد والتلاعب الذي جرى في المجلس الأعلى للقضاء على يد عباس»، كما أكد نائب الأمين العام للجبهة، أبو أحمد فؤاد.
يقول مصدر قيادي في «الشعبية»، لـ«الأخبار»، إن اللجنة المركزية والمكتب السياسي لم يحسما بعد قرار المشاركة، لكنه يؤكد أن «الخيارات كافة متاحة بما في ذلك المشاركة في قائمة وطنية تضمّ جميع الفصائل، أو التحالف مع حماس، أو قائمة منفردة على غرار انتخابات 2006» التي حصلت فيها الجبهة على 4.2% بواقع ثلاثة مقاعد. ويشير المصدر إلى وجود معارضة داخلية للدخول في قائمة موحّدة مع فصائل المنظّمة تضمّ «فتح»، خشية من استغلال الأخيرة تلك القائمة، وتعزيز تفرّدها بالقرار الفلسطيني، وتقوية برنامجها السياسي القائم على التفاوض مع الاحتلال، فضلاً عن وجود خلافات مع «فتح» لم يتمّ حلّها أصلاً.
رفضت الجبهة أن تكون تحت مظلّة «فتح» وتشاركها قائمة واحدة
على خطّ موازٍ، تسعى «فتح» إلى تجميع فصائل «منظّمة التحرير» للدخول في قائمة واحدة معها في الانتخابات التشريعية. ومنذ قرار إجراء الانتخابات، عقدت فصائل المنظّمة لقاءات، آخرها منتصف الشهر الماضي، للتباحث في كيفية دخولها الانتخابات وتحقيق نتائج جيدة تغطّي ضعف شعبيتها. وأمام خوف عدد منها من انكشاف شعبيّتها المتدنّية، فهي تسعى إلى تشكيل قائمة موحّدة لتجاوز نسبة الحسم ودخول «المجلس التشريعي»، الأمر الذي دعا إليه عضو اللجنة المركزية لـ«الجبهة الديموقراطية»، محمود خلف.
تضمّ تلك اللقاءات حزب «الشعب» و«جبهة النضال الشعبي» و«جبهة التحرير الفلسطينية» وحزب «فدا» و«الجبهة العربية الفلسطينية»، وهي فصائل لم تحصل على نسبة الحسم في انتخابات 2006، وتخشى من انتهاء حضورها بسبب التصاق بعضها بمواقف السلطة، واستخدام الأخيرة لها في مواقف كثيرة، فضلاً عن انعدام فعاليتها في الساحة الشعبية. ولذلك، تريد تعزيز فرصها الآن لتحقيق أكثر من 10% لها جميعاً، لكن الخشية من الخلافات حول تشكيل قائمة موحّدة بينها دفع بعضها إلى المطالبة بخفض نسبة الحسم إلى 1% بخلاف النسبة السابقة، 2%. أمّا «الديموقراطية»، فتريد توسيع تحالف فصائل المنظّمة هذه المرّة لتحقيق نتائج أفضل من التي حصلت عليها في 2006، عندما تحالفت مع «الشعب» و«فدا» وحصدت 2.7% من الأصوات، وهي الآن تجهد لضمّ «جبهة التحرير» التي حصلت في الانتخابات الماضية على 0.3%، إضافة إلى «العربية الفلسطينية» التي حصلت على 0.4%، و«المبادرة الفلسطينية» (مصطفى البرغوثي وآخرين) التي حصلت على 2.72% .
لا يتيح المرسوم الرئاسي الخاصّ بالانتخابات التشريعية، لـ«المستقلّين»، الترشّح بصورة منفردة، ما يدفع عدداً من هؤلاء إلى تشكيل قوائم خاصة بهم، طارحين أنفسهم منافساً وبديلاً من الفصائل، مستغلّين في ذلك تراجع الثقة الشعبية لغالبية التنظيمات. وتستعدّ شخصيات «مستقلّة» في الضفة المحتلة وقطاع غزة لتشكيل قوائم عدّة، فيما يدرس عدد من الفصائل التحالف مع هؤلاء بِمَن فيها «حماس» و«فتح»، لتعزيز المقاعد التي ستحصل عليها في الانتخابات.
ومع ترحيب «تجمّع الشخصيات المستقلّة» بمرسوم الانتخابات، كشفت مصادر في التجمّع أن هناك عدداً من الشخصيات المنضوية تحت لوائه تبحث بجدّية خوض الانتخابات ضمن قائمة خاصة، وسط توقعات بأن تحصل هذه القائمة على «نتائج مرضية مع ارتفاع شعبية عدد منهم ورغبة الشارع في التغيير وإنهاء الانقسام». وعلمت «الأخبار» أن رئيس الوزراء الأسبق، سلام فياض، يستعدّ لدخول الانتخابات على رأس قائمة من المستقلّين تضمّ شخصيات من غزة والضفة، كما جرى في انتخابات 2006 والتي حصل فيها على مقعدين، لكن شريكته في الانتخابات الماضية، حنان عشراوي، أعلنت أنها لن تخوض هذه الانتخابات، فضلاً عن خلافها معه.
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