From the ‘Battle of Dignity’ to the shield of shame: How Jordan has fallen

APR 16, 2024

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Amman’s collaboration with Tel Aviv peaked last Saturday with its shocking defense of Israeli territory from Iranian drones and missiles, a move that may prove fateful for the future of the Hashemite Kingdom.

(Photo Credit: The Cradle)

Khalil Harb

The most dangerous development during Iran’s massive 13 April retaliatory strike against Israel last weekend was the defensive military alliance – comprising the US, Britain, Jordan, and France – that coalesced to defend the occupation state.

Jordan has jumped to Israel’s full defense at a time when Arabs have never been more collectively outraged by its crimes.

Particularly notable was Jordan’s role in thwarting Iran’s incoming drones and missiles. The Hashemite Kingdom was the only Arab or Muslim state to act as Israel’s “firewall,” providing direct military protection for Tel Aviv within a multilateral, regional military framework.

Despite Amman’s long-standing pro-Israel stance, this sudden reassertion of its position is indicative of some broader shifts in military strategies across West Asia. 

Patterns and calculations of confrontations across West Asia will be readjusted to adapt to this new equation and others that have emerged in the region as alliances shift to and away from the west. 

That includes the Axis of Resistance, which will likely reassess the expected range of responses in a future confrontation, given that western anti-missile capabilities are well spread throughout strategic locations – strategic sites from the Ain al-Assad base in Anbar, Iraq, to the Al-Tanf base at the Syrian–Jordanian–Iraqi border and from the Mashabim base in the Negev desert to the King Faisal base in northwestern Jordan.

Strategic shifts

Over the years, the Jordanian government has dramatically shrunk its commitments to the Palestinian cause and “Arabism.” 

This can be traced from its 1968 “Battle of Dignity” against Israel to 5 November, when King Abdullah II boasted of his country’s “success” in airdropping medical aid to the Jordanian field hospital in the Gaza Strip, and now, quite stunningly, employing its air force to protect Israel’s security from retaliatory Iranian strikes. 

This shift is not merely a reactionary measure but the culmination of years of extensive security and military coordination with the occupation state, as highlighted by a Jordanian opposition activist speaking to The Cradle. This deep-seated integration into anti-missile and drone operations reflects a strategic evolution rather than a spontaneous response.

Eyewitness reports from multiple sources to The Cradle describe the audible presence of warplanes over the Amman region, followed by the sound of explosions hours later when overhead projectiles were intercepted and downed. 

One Jordanian witness relays that the suburb of Marj al-Hamam saw the most interceptions against Iranian drones and missiles, with debris reported across the area.

Jordanian writer and journalist Rania Jabari informs The Cradle that “citizens in Jordan have felt jammed on the GPS for about two weeks,” that is, since after the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus. 

Amid rising concerns about a swift Iranian counterattack through drone incursions, Israel reportedly initiated GPS jamming operations across several regional countries, including Jordan. 

Jabari suggests that this electronic interference might have precipitated the Jordanian Air Force’s readiness to intercept any unauthorized aerial objects in its airspace, given the potential risks to national security from mistakenly guiding Iranian drones into Jordanian territory.

However, the Jordanian opposition activist casts doubt on the capability of Jordan’s Air Force – equipped with only about 60 older F-16 and F-5 aircraft – to single-handedly manage the response against hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles destined for Israel.

Regional repercussions 

Supporting these suspicions, Israeli Channel 12 reported that Israeli fighter jets had intercepted drones launched by Iran in the airspace of Jordan and Syria. 

The day after the Iranian Operation True Promise, the Jordanian government issued a vague statement, only saying that “some unidentified flying objects that entered our airspace last night were dealt with and intercepted to prevent endangering the safety of our citizens and inhabited areas.”

The statement conspicuously omitted any mention of the scale of involvement of the Israeli Air Force or the nature and role of US fighter jets participating in the operation.

Given the limitations of Jordan’s aerial fleet and the extensive geographic area these planes need to cover – a “firewall” stretching approximately 1,500 kilometers from western Iran to the occupied territories of Palestine – the involvement of international forces seems credible. 

Additionally, Iraqi sources inform The Cradle that coalition forces had shot down about 30 drones and missiles over Iraq, with explosions heard in regions like Erbil, Najaf, Wasit, and Anbar. This indicates that a significant number of the drones and missiles traversed Jordanian skies, where they were intercepted before reaching their intended targets in Israel.

The role of the Jordanian Air Force is so significant that the Iranian Mehr news agency quoted an Iranian military source as saying, “Iran will monitor Jordanian movements, and if they cooperate with Israel, Jordan will be our next target.”

The source is said to have “warned Jordan and other countries in the region before the start of the attack against cooperating with the occupying entity.”

This statement seems to have aroused the ire of the Jordanian government. On Sunday, authorities summoned the Iranian ambassador in Amman to warn against Tehran’s “questioning of Jordan’s position.”

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi also issued a statement saying that his government would “intercept any drone or missile that breaches our airspace, whether Iranian or Israeli.” 

However, the Jordanian oppositionist questions the accuracy of Safadi’s statement, especially about his country’s readiness to confront a similar threat coming from Tel Aviv, noting numerous occasions when Israeli fighter jets infiltrated Jordanian airspace to carry out raids on Syria. 

A history of betraying Palestine  

Jordan’s historical antagonism towards Palestinian resistance dates back to the “Black September” massacres of 1970, aimed at expelling the PLO from the country – allegedly with the support of former King Hussein bin Talal, who reportedly received backing from Israel and the US.

During the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel’s Air Force shot down and destroyed dozens of Jordanian aircraft. Following the 1994 Amman–Tel Aviv peace agreement, the two states have struck multiple defense deals, including Israel supplying Jordan with F-16 jets and Cobra helicopters.

Since the 1970s, when Israel supported Jordan during the Palestinian revolt against King Hussein, the two air forces have not engaged in combat. Israeli belligerence persists despite this. On the eve of the 1991 Gulf War, when asked about potential opposition from the Jordanian Air Force should Israel strike Iraq, then-retired Air Force Commander Avihu Ben-Nun boldly stated, “There would be no more Jordanian Air Force.”

It is very likely, moreover, that the western militaries involved in Israel’s defense last weekend utilized Jordanian bases. For example, US troops are stationed at the Mashabim air base in the Negev desert, supporting operations like the Iron Dome system. 

Similarly, UK and French military forces are present at multiple strategic locations within Jordan, including the King Faisal Air Base in Al-Jafr and the Humaymah base near Aqaba, where they play roles in regional defense and run intelligence operations.

There are also French troops at King Faisal Air Base, known as Al-Ruwaished Base, which is close to Al-Tanf. From this base, activities involving espionage operations in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran are carried out through a state-of-the-art reconnaissance center, and its airport is believed to be used by both Israeli and US drones. 

Sacrificing Jordan’s stability for Israel’s security 

But Jordan’s relations and collaboration with Tel Aviv remain deeply unpopular among the country’s citizenry, with protestors amassing for weeks near the Israeli embassy in Amman – many of them subsequently subjected to repression and tight security restrictions by Jordanian authorities. 

Adding to the pressure on Amman, the Iraqi resistance faction, Kataib Hezbollah, announced earlier this month its readiness to arm “12,000 fighters with light and medium weapons, anti-armor launchers, tactical missiles, millions of bullets and tons of explosives, so that we can be united to defend our Palestinian brothers,” adding that it would seek to “cut off the [Jordan] land route that reaches the Zionist entity.”

By participating in the interception of Iranian drones, Jordan has made a significant contribution to alleviating some pressure off Israel, but one that comes with a much more significant domestic consequence for the stability of the kingdom. 

Will Amman’s blatant alignment with Tel Aviv in this context prove to be politically detrimental for its monarch? In years to come, this decision may be viewed as a strategic error of gargantuan proportions. For now, Jordan’s political future and its position in regional politics remain uncertain – certainly as Tel Aviv and Tehran gear up for further confrontations. 

King Abdallah can jump into the fray as he did last weekend and suffer through further waves of domestic and Arab outrage, or he can resolve to stay neutral and quiet – as many larger, more powerful neighbors chose to do – and let Iranians and Israelis adversaries fight their own battles.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

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Why is Jordan cracking down on support for Gaza?

APR 10, 2024

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Support for the Palestinian cause, at an all-time high globally, is being actively suppressed by Jordanian authorities, under pressure to keep a lid on anti-Israel displays in the kingdom.

(Photo Credit: The Cradle)

Kit Klarenburg

For the past fortnight, thousands of Jordanians have taken to the streets of Amman, besieging the Israeli embassy, condemning the Gaza genocide, demanding the Hashemite Kingdom sever all ties with Tel Aviv – and, in particular, tearing up the country’s 1994 peace treaty with Israel. 

Jordanian security forces have met these protests with increasing severity, signaling the government’s unease with too much public criticism of Israel. Amidst the turmoil, Saudi Arabia – Jordan’s biggest Arab patron – watches warily, concerned that a surge in Palestinian solidarity might challenge its own regional dominance and sink all prospects of Riyadh’s normalization with Tel Aviv.

Banning ‘Palestine’

This includes banning Palestinian flags, keffiyehs, and banners from protests – a mirror of the restrictions imposed in several pro-US Arab states. Attendees are also subjected to invasive body searches and identification checks, and select individuals are barred from participating. 

The crackdowns seem to change by the day – one day, protesters are seen with their keffiyehs, and the next, they are not. The same goes for Palestinian flags. At times, they are visible in the throngs; with the flip of a switch, protesters resort to flashing the flag only on their mobile phones.

The public demonstrations are mainly confined to the heavily barricaded courtyard of Kaluti Mosque, situated near Amman’s evacuated Israeli embassy, and restricted to a duration of only two hours.

During the month of Ramadan, protests commence at 10 PM, following the conclusion of mass Taraweeh prayers. As one protester relates to The Cradle:

Police insist it needs to be over by midnight, then break it off violently or through intimidation if people refuse to leave. Greater restrictions are a huge deterrent to attending, especially having to show your ID – people worry it’ll somehow be used against them later. Due to the barriers, some people often can’t even get in, and those who do can’t move. It’s meant to demoralize us, trapping us in a cage and preventing us from breaking out into the streets.

The banning of Palestine’s flag is an especially sensitive escalation by Jordanian authorities. A small majority of the Jordanian population is Palestinian by birth. They consist of refugees from Palestine and their descendants, as well as residents of the West Bank during the period of Amman’s administration from 1948 to 1967.

As there is no census in the country, the precise figure is unknown. This may be by design, in order to diminish Palestine’s societal and political influence in the British-created Hashemite Kingdom.

A symbolic struggle intensifies 

In a hugely symbolic development, violence towards Palestine solidarity protesters in Amman reached its zenith on 30 March, Land Day, which commemorates a fateful date in 1976 when Zionist authorities first began formally confiscating Palestinian territory for settlement. 

Six unarmed Palestinians – including three women – were murdered that day by Israeli occupation forces, with hundreds more injured during subsequent clashes. Ever since then, Jordanian officials have attempted to calm the situation and present themselves as committed anti-Zionists.

In their response to the past week of protests, authorities in Amman have tried to strike a quiet balance. Government Communications Minister Muhannad Mubaidin has claimed that condemning Israel is a core national ethos, affirming Amman’s solidarity with Palestine and the citizens’ right to protest despite “violations” committed by a minority of demonstrators.

Yet, as one anonymous Jordanian activist tells The Cradle, “many of us think this is just talk.” After all, many protesters arrested over the past two weeks remain in “administrative detention,” and formal restrictions on the protests have only ratcheted since 30 March.

The X account of the “Jordanian Youth Gathering for the Support of the Resistance” lists the names and photographs of 54 protesters they allege are currently being detained by Jordanian security forces. For supporting Palestine, they remain behind bars during the official Muslim Eid al-Fitr holiday that marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan.

Jordan’s Palestinian identity crisis 

In September 1970, in response to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) using Jordan as a highly effective staging ground for strikes upon the occupation state, Jordanian forces began attacking cities, including Amman, with a substantial fedayeen presence. 

Commonly known as Black September, events that month spiraled into what was effectively a civil war, with Palestinians and Jordanians on both sides of the divide. Several protesters who spoke to The Cradle note the obvious parallels between then and now, with one saying banning symbols of Palestine solidarity “seems insane,” given the historical context of such actions in Amman.

Activists also say that accusations against Palestine solidarity protesters in Jordan of serving “foreign agendas” and being directed by overseas actors have reached unprecedented levels. 

Although blaming the ‘Other’ is an age-old tactic of authorities to dispel dissent among populations, several activists tell The Cradle it has reached “shocking” and unprecedented levels this time round. The cast of characters who stand accused include the Muslim Brotherhood, Iran, Hamas, and even the west.

Despite these accusations, the protests have a genuine international component, fostering a spirit of unity among Palestine solidarity activists across West Asia, including Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Oman. 

“People in Cairo were chanting against [Jordan’s King] Abdullah II a few days ago, while we chanted against [Egyptian President Abdel Fattah] al-Sisi. We call on each other to rise!” a Jordanian protester proudly tells The Cradle. Such scenes are absolute anathema to various governments within and outside West Asia.

Israel’s counterstrategy

This growing Arab solidarity with Palestine has not gone unnoticed by Israel, which is acutely aware of the horrendous reputational impact its Gaza genocide is having overseas. A leaked US State Department memo has revealed Tel Aviv is recruiting “influencers to help target social media users” in Europe and North America, and “Egypt, Jordan, and Gulf Arab countries” to highlight purported Hamas atrocities. 

Accordingly, open-source investigation platform EekadFacts has exposed a number of X accounts, reportedly based in Jordan, posting relentless anti-Hamas messaging.

These cloak-and-dagger activities have done nothing to quell Palestine solidarity in any corner of the world and have thrown pro-US Arab allies, particularly Saudi Arabia, for a loop.

Riyadh’s role 

As Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar forcefully noted on 4 April, Riyadh has “launched its press and electronic flies to defend the Hashemite throne” – ironic, given that in 2021, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) attempted to overthrow King Abdullah II and install his brother, Prince Hamzah, as regent. The coup plotters, it should be noted, remain on trial in Amman today.

A largely forgotten component of that failed putsch was Israel’s central involvement. As Al-Akhbar observed, Bin Salman is desperate to crush Palestine solidarity, for such activity interferes with his long-term “ambition to normalize relations with Israel, as a way to obtain American guarantees for the security and safety of the Saudi regime.” 

This includes US acquiescence to the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Riyadh and US assistance in establishing nuclear infrastructure that includes a nuclear fuel circuit on Saudi territory – both longtime Saudi demands.

Riyadh and Tel Aviv were on the verge of normalizing relations when Operation Al-Aqsa Flood struck, followed by the brutal assault on Gaza.

Israel’s military blitzkrieg made normalization an untenable proposition. While initially, MbS suggested it was off the table, this was clearly an expedient fudge to uphold his claim that the kingdom “represents the heart of the Muslim world” and “senses the hopes and pains of Muslims everywhere, strives to achieve unity, cooperation and solidarity in our Muslim world.” 

By January, he had reversed course, openly and repeatedly expressing “interest” in “recognition” of Tel Aviv – provided Israel agrees to advance the two-state solution and build a “renewed” Palestinian Authority that can, presumably, garner the support of actual Palestinians.

Concurrently, Riyadh has been meeting with representatives of Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and UAE to hammer out a “joint plan” for Gaza, post-war. It would see the brutal, collaborationist, British-trained Palestinian Authority take over as the territory’s undisputed ruler, with Hamas frozen out of all official offices and agencies. 

It is a proposition neither Palestinian freedom fighters nor Palestine solidarity activists the world over are likely to accept.

Docs reveal how British intelligence controls Jordan’s media

June 05 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

UK contractors sought to create a covert newsroom to strategically flood Jordan’s mainstream and social media with a stream of self-serving propaganda.

By Kit Klarenberg

Leaked submissions to the British Foreign Office reviewed by The Cradle expose how the UK infiltrates Jordan’s communications structures at the highest levels, in turn exerting vast, insidious influence over the country’s media and, therefore, public perceptions within the country – and West Asia more widely.

These papers show that under the aegis of countering ISIS propaganda, London sought to install operatives within Jordan’s Strategic Communications Unit (JSU) – a Jordanian entity “composed of representatives from a variety of different GoJ departments and institutions, which of course includes the RHC (royal court), but also the Ministry of Information, Jordanian Armed Forces, Ministry of Interior and the Public Security Directorate.”

These operatives would create a dedicated “covert newsroom” to publish a relentless flow of “unattributable” multimedia content extolling “patriotic national narratives” and anti-extremist messaging. This output would then be amplified, whether wittingly or unwittingly, by local and regional news outlets.

British intelligence cutout Albany Associates submitted a detailed pitch for the half a million pound project, which London was keen to complete by the end of the 2016/17 financial year.

“With our support, the JSU will become empowered to win and dominate the contest for the information space,” Albany pledged.

The company went on to outline a detailed plan. Along the way, it promised to match the visual impact of ISIS’ propaganda with “powerful pictures” of its own, in the form of images and videos.

“We recommend the JSU content be a mixture of short-form videos, audio, images, infographics, blogs, opinion pieces, facilitated real-time Q&A with CSOs, key influencers, etc. We will advise on curating and sharing relevant and interesting third-party content that supports the [government’s] aims,” the pitch continued. “We will identify the most popular Jordanian influencers on Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, Google+, bloggers, and other social media channels and evolve strategies to engage with them, helping the amplification and advocacy of our messages.”

This would, in part, be achieved by “discretely [leveraging] local and regional networks, and citizen user, activist, and NGO generated content and challenge and surpass that of the opposition.” The newsroom’s “strategic focus” would be “local voices turning local conversations.”

“All content must be on-message with the core narrative and key messages of the JSU strategic aims to provide continuity and authenticity,” Albany explained.

Noting the government of Jordan had hitherto “predominantly used traditional and old media to issue statements and information,” Albany proposed tutoring Amman’s security and intelligence agencies on how to use an array of social media platforms, editing software, and accompanying tools. This included surveillance resources, both to identify key target audiences for the newsroom’s covert state propaganda, but also “listen to and monitor Jordanian influencers and stakeholders who share ideas and content that support the mission of the JSU.”

Covering tracks

Concealing Britain’s involvement in the covert newsroom was of absolutely paramount importance. Being “associated with a regional or western government” was judged a “major” risk, which Albany would mitigate by ensuring the effort’s foreign funding and management “will not be evident in the branding … of content or chosen messages.”

Should the covert newsroom elicit “unwanted media attention” and resultant press inquiries, “procedures and pre-agreed lines to take” would be in place. Only “in the event of operational security breach” was Britain’s involvement to be admitted “based on a predetermined narrative.”

“The JSU is operating in a tense and deeply suspicious media environment. The most obvious question people ask themselves is, ‘who created this content, and why?’” Albany noted. “Past modus operandi in such circumstances is to launch overt counter-propaganda in the expectation that the media will transmit it faithfully, and target audiences will believe it … Our job with the JSU is to go about things differently, using the balance and content to create credibility and persuasion to achieve objectives.”

This caution extended to only using media channels already popular with target audiences that would not “raise suspicion among grassroots and activist consumers of media.” The covert newsroom’s output was to at all times “reflect the ways in which target audiences consume their information.” There was also concern about which local and international “celebrities” would be used to lend an imprimatur of popular independence to the JSU’s content.

‘Using Jordan’s influencers’

“Rock star’ amplification is a very useful tactic to increase reach and impact. However, it can backfire … If they are associated with a particular political position, then so will the content be,” Albany warned. “They still can be of beneficial use, if the proper research is done first to establish their political stances, the potential reach is weighed up against the risks involved, and the JSU understands clearly the limits within which the rock star will be used.”

Should a “rock star” relationship “turn out negatively,” the “unbranded” nature of newsroom communications would mean “no associations will be made in the popular perception of content that features the rock star and content that does not … other areas of operations will continue unaffected.”

Proposed “celebrities” for the project included “female religious preachers,” former ISIS fighters, “victims, families of victims, and families of fighters,” activists such as Deema Alam Farraj, who is described as “a strong female role model,” satirical websites such as local online entertainment network Kharabeesh, and youth-focused comedy platform Fooq Alsada. 

Such secrecy is supremely striking, given one of the covert newsroom’s core stated objectives was reducing the perception of the government of Jordan as “agents of the West, and particularly the US, in the region.”

Information warfare, not journalism

In a perverse irony, an internal “mentor” for the project, to be embedded within the JSU and train Jordanian underlings in the art of information warfare, was a British Army reservist who had been deployed to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Kosovo. Boasting “five years of operational strategic communications experience” for London and Washington and high-level security clearance, he was said to have “created and led press teams in some of the most hostile environments.”

This included spending 2011 at the head of the Pentagon’s Strategic Programs Operations Center in Baghdad. There, he ran programs surreptitiously exploiting “credible and authentic” civil society voices to “create the most powerful impact” in campaigns promoting “political reconciliation” and “national identity.” He also personally developed a computer game “to target Iraqi youth audiences.”

This background should amply underline the dark reality that, whatever good Albany’s intervention may possibly have achieved in deterring Jordanian citizens from the destructive clutches of ISIS and other extremist groups in West Asia, the newsroom’s true purpose was to aggressively assert self-serving narratives – and therefore British and American control over Amman, and neighboring countries.

The assortment of “national narratives” and “key messages” Albany crafted avowedly sought to perpetuate sought to “facilitate and further” the Royal Hashemite Court’s “priorities.” This dynasty was, of course, installed on thrones across West Asia by the British following World War I.

Moreover, “opposition” within Jordan is far from restricted to violent fundamentalist fraternities. Over the past decade, Amman has passed a number of sweeping anti-terror laws, criminalizing even the mildest forms of dissent as threats to the state. Today, both domestic and visiting foreign journalists and activists are frequently subject to harassment, arrest, and prosecution for their reporting and social media activity.

Albany’s cloak-and-dagger creation of an internal, spy-run newsroom to deluge media outlets with slick propaganda posing as independent, grassroots citizen journalism provided another means by which to suppress inconvenient truths and critical viewpoints Jordan’s current ruler, King Abdullah II – himself a British Army veteran – and his western backers do not want in the public domain.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

Deputy PM Safadi Meets President Assad, Conveys Jordan’s Support to Syria

 February 15, 2023

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad received Wednesday, Ayman Safadi, Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates.

Al-Safadi conveyed to President al-Assad greetings and condolences of His Majesty King Abdullah II, stressing that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, leadership and people, stand in solidarity with the Syrian people for what they have suffered as a result of the earthquake, “and will continue, under recommendations of the King, to provide everything possible to help Syria to overcome this ordeal and support the Syrian government’s efforts to provide relief to those affected.”

Al-Safadi considered that the world’s states should deal with this catastrophe in accordance with humanitarian principles, so that the required aid and relief materials are delivered to all the areas affected by the quake without discrimination or politicizing the humanitarian situation experienced by the Syrians.

President al-Assad, voiced Syria’s appreciation for the official and popular stance of brotherly Jordan, noting that the Syrians welcome and act positively with any good stance towards them, particularly from the Arab brothers.

President al-Assad underscored the importance of bilateral cooperation between Syria and Jordan, adding “owing to the geographical and popular extension between the two countries, the two peoples live with similar challenges and circumstances at many levels, and at the same time this provides opportunities for joint action in many domains that benefit the two brotherly peoples”.

Source: SANA

Jordan’s Game of Thrones: Power struggle of the Hashemite family

February 14 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

The Jordanian monarchy is facing an uncertain future due to internal conflicts over which Queen’s son will succeed to the throne. Amid ongoing public protests against corruption and economic decline, this royal power struggle could have regional geopolitical implications.

By Firas Al-Shoufi

Recent protests in Jordan have highlighted the country’s political and economic instability, fueled in part by rising prices and deteriorating living conditions. Once a vital regional mediator, the absence of a significant role for Jordan in its neighborhood – and its utter dependence on foreign handouts – has also contributed to this unrest.

This public unrest also conceals an ongoing struggle over power and wealth within the Hashemite royal family. The competition is not limited to King Abdullah II and his half brother, former Crown Prince Hamzah bin Hussein, but also includes Queen Rania, mother of current Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah, and former Queen Noor Al-Hussein, mother of Prince Hamzah.

The failed coup

On 3 April, 2021, Jordanian authorities made the stunning announcement that they had foiled an attempted coup, and accused Prince Hamzah of conspiring against the kingdom, alongside a group of high-ranking figures. Among those implicated was Bassem Awadallah, a former chief of the royal court and finance minister who, until his arrest, was a close associate of King Abdullah II and one of the most prominent financial advisers to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).

Awadallah – who has reportedly gone on a hunger strike this week – and Hassan bin Zaid, the king’s special envoy to Saudi Arabia, were subsequently sentenced to 15 years in prison after being charged with “incitement against the ruling system” and “sedition.”

While the charge sheet acknowledged Prince Hamzah’s direct involvement in the plot, he himself was not on trial. Instead, King Abdullah chose to handle the matter within the confines of the royal family, placing his half-brother under house arrest and limiting his movements and communications.

The conflict between the two brothers is not new and has its roots in the appointment of Abdullah II as crown prince by their father King Hussein, who deposed his brother Hassan bin Talal while on his deathbed. The country’s 1951 constitution stipulates that a monarch’s sons should be the succeeding king and crown prince, with Abdullah expected to appoint his brother Hamzah as his successor.

Hamzah, the true heir

One former Jordanian diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity, revealed to The Cradle that:

“Abdullah pledged to his late father in 1998 not only to appoint Hamzah as crown prince, but also to hand over power to him after five years, which Abdullah did not abide by. Instead, he relieved Hamzah of his duties on November 28, 2004, and the line of succession moved automatically to Abdullah’s eldest son, Prince Hussein. In July 2009, Abdullah affirmed this change by officially naming Hussein crown prince.”

According to the diplomat, King Hussein was grooming Hamzah for succession while Abdullah was not yet in a position of power and had difficulty speaking Arabic. The late king had appointed Samih al Batikhi, his national security advisor, to oversee the transfer of power, but Abdullah removed him from power and had him imprisoned on corruption charges in 2003.

A veteran journalist based in Amman suggests that Abdullah was simply not willing to hand over the kingship to Hamzah five years after their father’s death:

“Maybe King Hussein would have preferred Hamzah to succeed him, but Abdullah was not about to give up power at a delicate moment for Jordan and the region, after the occupation of Iraq and the death of Yasser Arafat, not to mention that he was receiving American support.”

Abdications and dispossessions

In his struggle against Hamzah, Abdullah has resorted to accusing him of insanity and of “conspiring with an external party,” without elaboration. Rumors have circulated in the country about MbS’s alleged support for Hamzah’s failed coup, but these allegations lack evidence and were countered by Saudi Arabia’s declaration of support for King Abdullah.

The Hashemite family has a history of conspiracies, deceptions, conflicts, and external interference during the transfer of the throne from Abdullah I to Al-Hussein, and then to Abdullah II. Prince Talal bin Abdullah I, the father of Hussein, faced the same charge of insanity and was overthrown in 1952 with the support of the British.

The strong man in the regime at that time, Sharif Nasser bin Jamil (brother of Queen Zain, Hussein’s mother) played a major role in King Hussein’s ascension to the throne. Later, Hussein sought to depose his brother Crown Prince Hassan in favor of Abdullah, using the constitutional right for a son to succeed the monarch, but Hassan bowed out gracefully and submitted his own resignation.

Although Hamzah has distanced himself from the public eye and relinquished his title of prince in the spring of 2022, King Abdullah II is still concerned about his brother’s strong influence among various Jordanian clans, such as Al-Huwaitat, Bani Sakhr, Bani Hassan, and others.

Rampant corruption

The former crown prince enjoys a good reputation among these groups, untainted by corruption, while the king’s image is being tarnished by the worsening economic crisis and the financial scandals surrounding his personal wealth – estimated at over $500 million as revealed in the “Pandora Papers.” As the aforementioned diplomatic source says:

“Corruption has always existed in Jordan. During the reign of King Hussein, commissions were deducted from foreign deals. Today, news has been circulating about huge deposits owned by the king abroad, and about transferring ownership of state lands to his personal account.”

The journalist in Amman highlights the scandal of the British Tornado planes, where the price of the planes and King Hussein’s commission were alleged to have been paid from the money of the Persian Gulf monarchies. But the deal was halted after the scandal was exposed. He notes that “today, in the absence of Gulf money and external support, any waste or corruption will be at the expense of the Jordanian treasury.”

According to The Observer on 19 March, 1989, the share of the king and the intermediaries in the £800 million deal for Jordan to acquire eight Tornado fighters was reportedly up to 30 percent.

The rivalry of Queens

The journalist believes that the main reason for the conflict between King Abdullah II and former Queen Noor – Hamzah’s mother – is her control of King Hussein’s estate outside Jordan: “We are talking here about $1.4 billion worth of funds and property around the world controlled by Queen Noor.”

A parallel power struggle between Queen Rania and former Queen Noor is playing out in tandem with the battle over the royal estate: Both are vying to secure the succession of their respective sons to the Jordanian throne.

Queen Rania is leveraging her position as the current queen to pave the way for her son, Hussein II, to ascend to power, while Noor is seeking to exploit her ties to the US Democratic Party as a counterweight to King Abdullah’s close relationship with the Pentagon.

The accession of either Prince Hussein or Prince Hamzah to the throne would have far-reaching implications for the structure of royal rule in Jordan. Since Queen Rania is of Palestinian origin, some east Jordanians fear that if Hussein bin Abdullah takes the throne, it could result in the end of Hashemite rule in favor of Palestinians, and the realization of the “alternative Palestinian homeland” project – a notion that has long been used by the Hashemite family to maintain the loyalty of Jordanian clans.

The 1987 disengagement between Jordan and the West Bank lacks legal validity since the Jordanian constitution still recognizes the West Bank as part of Jordanian territory. In a June 2022 article on Al-Arabiya, Saudi journalist Ali al-Shihabi proposed the annexation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip to Jordan and the establishment of a kingdom for Palestinians and Jordanians.

The article which received strong online criticism, serves as an important indicator of Jordan’s potential future amid ongoing international and regional efforts to find a palatable “solution” to the Palestinian conflict and achieve full normalization with Israel – at the expense of both the Palestinians and Jordanians.

The future of Jordan’s monarchy

However, the question remains as to whether Hamzah was genuinely preparing to stage a royal coup. As the diplomat tells The Cradle:

“There is no strong evidence that Hamzah was preparing for a successful coup. Most likely, he wanted to shake the ground under Abdullah’s feet, so that the Americans would be convinced that the king could not achieve stability in Jordan, and they would start searching for alternatives that would ensure the regime would continue to play the roles required of it.”

Regardless of Hamzah’s intentions, the challenge for King Abdullah is significant. Hamzah’s strong popular support and ambition to rule, as well as the potential for Queen Rania to seek an early ascension to the throne for their son Hussein, add to his pressure. Additionally, there are concerns that the assimilation of Palestinians into the Jordanian state as an “alternative homeland” could lead to the demise of Hashemite rule.

Despite recent achievements by King Abdullah, such as the approval of increased US military aid to Jordan and the F-16 Block 70 fighter jet deal, corruption remains a root cause of danger for the country in the medium and long term.

Jordan’s government is still funding the corruption necessary to satisfy decision-making circles, and faces a debt estimated at $41 billion. Furthermore, it has not learned from the mistakes of the failed Egyptian administrative capital project, recently announcing a new capital project for Jordan at a cost of $11.5 billion. This only serves to increase corruption and popular anger, further strengthening the arguments of the king’s opponents.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

Leaked files: How Britain trains Jordan to spy on its citizens

January 24 2023

The British government covertly trained Jordanian security services in techniques known as “digital media exploitation” which has been used to monitor, manipulate, and disrupt dissent in the kingdom.

Source: The Cradle

Photo Credit: The Cradle

ByKit Klarenberg

By Al Mayadeen English 

Leaked documents reviewed by The Cradle reveal that Britain secretly trained Jordanian security services in techniques used by the notorious UK security and cyber agency GCHQ, which provides signals intelligence to the British government and its armed forces.

Over three intensive, week-long, Foreign Office-funded training sessions conducted between June 2019 and March 2020, members of the Public Security Directorate’s shadowy Special Branch, handpicked by the British Embassy in Amman, were taught the finer points of “digital media exploitation.”

In theory, the purpose of the exercise was to assist “evidence gathering agencies in Jordan to effectively extract data from digital devices” to enhance their investigative capabilities, and improve the standard of prosecutions, particularly in the field of terrorism.

This would in turn enable enhanced sharing of evidence between Amman and London, “and lead to increased operational cooperation.”

Tried and tested tactics

As readers of The Cradle will well-know by this point, the officially stated noble objectives of Whitehall’s assorted security support and reform programs in West Asia may not align with the underlying reality of these efforts.

For example, this outlet has previously revealed how British operatives and technology are placed in Lebanon’s intelligence services under the guise of teaching them how to use digital forensic tools. This allows London to closely monitor their activities – and Lebanese citizens.

Those programs are delivered by British government contractor Torchlight, a company staffed by UK military and intelligence veterans with high-level security clearances. The same company was also behind the training provided to Jordan’s Special Branch.

According to its submissions to the Foreign Office, based on a “comprehensive on-site visit” in 2018, the Directorate’s operatives were already “satisfactorily equipped in terms of hardware and software” to conduct “digital media exploitation.”

Spying on citizens

However, Torchlight felt that they were not “adequately trained to fully exploit the potential of the equipment they possess.” Given the resources available to the Directorate, this “potential” could be highly concerning.

For example, Torchlight has noted that Special Branch uses Cellebrite’s suite of digital intelligence products. Cellebrite, an Israeli company with clients including multiple repressive governments, produces technology capable of breaking into encrypted devices and extracting and analyzing all data within it.

While the firm has helped solve murky murder cases, overwhelmingly it is deployed to monitor the activities of human rights activists, journalists and dissidents.

The professional backgrounds of Torchlight staffers involved in the Jordanian training project raise additional concerns. It was led by the company’s Head of Digital Intelligence, Andy Tremlett, a cyber and electronic warfare specialist who spent over a decade in senior positions at GCHQ.

Along the way, he was “charged with the provision of support to the most specialized and discreet areas” of British Special Forces operations, and responsible for expanding the agency’s “overseas footprint” and “potential delivery platform.” These positions granted him “vast experience in how to use and exploit digital material,” and integrating different forms of intelligence in broader espionage operations.

‘Destroy, deny, degrade and disrupt’

Further details of Tremlett’s ability to “exploit” the private data of targets aren’t offered, although he is said to have “spent a significant portion of his career within the Joint Threat Research Intelligence Group (JTRIG).” The existence of this unit was exposed by US National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden in 2014, and the details of its operations are truly shocking.

JTRIG’s explicit mission is to employ a variety of dirty tricks to “destroy, deny, degrade and disrupt” enemies and “discrediting” them, by planting “negative information” about them online, and manipulating discussions on internet forums and social networks.

A leaked presentation on JTRIG’s covert activities shows this harassment extends to changing an individual’s social media profile pictures to take their paranoia “to a whole new level” or simply deleting their online presence, writing anonymous blog posts “purporting to be [by] one of their victims” to damage their reputations, emailing and texting their work colleagues, neighbors and friends, and arranging “honey trap” stings.

“A great option. Very successful when it works,” the presentation states in regard to the latter strategy. “Get someone to go somewhere on the internet, or a physical location to be met by a ‘friendly face.’ JTRIG has the ability to ‘shape’ the environment on occasions.”

Writing incriminating blog posts was said to have “worked on a number of different ops,” with “Iran work” cited as a particularly effective example, although this is not expanded upon. Elsewhere, it is disclosed that JTRIG “significantly” disrupted the Taliban’s communications network by bombarding them with phone calls, texts and faxes “every 10 seconds or so.”

Evidently, it was not digital forensics with which Torchlight’s training modules were primarily concerned. In fact, JTRIG operations related to “digital media exploitation” were, per the leaked presentation, primarily concerned with placing information on “compromised” electronic devices, including “damning information, where appropriate.”

Protecting the British-installed monarchy

In Jordan, criticism of King Abdullah II – a member of the Hashemite dynasty installed on thrones across West Asia by the British following World War I, and himself a British Army veteran – and government officials and institutions is a very serious crime.

Journalists are routinely subject to harassment, arrest and prosecution by authorities for even mildly critical reporting or social media posts. And protests over rising hardship among the general population are becoming more frequent.

The prospect of Amman’s secret police being proficient in JTRIG’s malicious methods is therefore disturbing by definition. The ease with which they could be abused to ruin the lives of objectors, and/or jail them on bogus charges, is clear.

Britain’s willingness to export these techniques to Jordan is not surprising. The strict and widely criticized Cybercrime Law, which restricts freedom of expression online and citizens’ right to privacy, makes the country a perfect staging ground for London’s nefarious activities elsewhere in West Asia, and helps keep their presence and intentions secret.

For example, from the early days of the Syrian crisis, Britain operated a site located 45 minutes from Amman where fighters in the proxy war were trained. Leaked files related to the project predicted that some of these individuals would go on to join Al-Nusra and ISIS and that equipment would be stolen and used by them.

Despite this, the Foreign Office was unconcerned about these prospects, likely because there was little risk that they, or the training program more generally, would ever be publicly exposed.

By Kit Klaernberg

King of Jordan vows to punish protesters

Jordanians have been taking to the streets of the kingdom to protest the government’s decision to hike fuel prices for the 16th time in two years.

December 17 2022

FILE (Photo credit: Getty Images)

ByNews Desk

Jordanian King Abdullah II bin al-Hussein, visited on 16 December the hometown of police colonel Abdul-Razzaq Abdul-Hafez al-Dalabeh, who was murdered during violent protests that have swept several cities in the kingdom.

While wearing military attire, the king offered his condolences to the family, and promised to strike the “enemies of stability” with an iron fist.

Abdullah added that security forces will deal severely with anyone who raises arms against the state or attacks its property and personnel, vowing to not rest until the murderers of Dalabeh were brought to justice.

“We will not accept insults or assault against members of our security services who are vigilant about protecting our homeland and its citizens,” the king added.

Abdullah added that vandalism will not be tolerated, and will be dealt with as a serious violation of the security of the kingdom, during an address to tribal elders.

In light of these developments, the police directorate issued a statement about its ongoing investigations and stated they “will not stop until the perpetrators are arrested to be handed a deterrent punishment.”

The punishment intends to set an example to any Jordanian who would plan or consider similar attacks on the state and its personnel.

العاهل الأردني يشارك في تشييع العقيد الدلابيح
اللهم احفظ الاردن ملكا وشعبا ….آمين #الاردن pic.twitter.com/r2Sp6jlnqI

— جمال ريان (@jamalrayyan) December 17, 2022

According to the Director of Public Security Major General Obaidullah al-Maaytah, about 49 Jordanian police members were injured during the protests.

Maaytah assumed the role of the director of public security in September, to tackle the growing gap in the relationship between the Jordanian throne and the tribes.

According authorities, at least 44 protesters were arrested for “participating in the riots in a number of regions in the kingdom.”

The statement added they “will be brought before the courts” to be punished to to the fullest extent permitted by law.

الإعلام العربي لاتثق به ، يخدم أجندات الطغاة ، متوفي دماغياً وروحياً وضميرياً!
نحن يجب أن نكون الصوت والصورة والإعلام الحر.#اضراب_الكرامة pic.twitter.com/9z5v4g9PUj

— علياء أبوتايه الحويطي (@Alya_Alhwaiti) December 15, 2022

Two weeks ago, the transportation sector in Jordan announced a nationwide strike to protest the government’s decision to hike fuel prices for the 16th time in two years.

With the government’s failure to implement effective reforms that would protect lorry and taxi drivers, the strikes expanded to include everyday citizens who took the streets to express their discontent.

Jordanians called on the government to resign for its failure in safeguarding their livelihood.

Their call was supported by 17 parliamentarians who asked for the resignation of Bishr al-Khasawneh’s government, through a vote of no confidence at the parliament.

Nonetheless, the Minister of Interior Mazen Faraya applauded the government’s actions for handling the situation “wisely and with accountability.”

He added that all just demands will be addressed, but stressed on the upmost need to end the strike at vital sectors in the kingdom, to mitigate repercussions on the economy.

Jordan: Protests against high fuel prices

• Jordanians Continue Fuel Protests As Gov’t Warns against Violence

Jordan issues royal decree restricting Prince Hamzah’s movement and communications

King Abdullah II justified the move against his half-brother, calling him ‘irresponsible’ and accusing him of seeking to sow unrest in the kingdom

May 19 2022

(Photo credit: KHALIL MAZRAAWI/AFP via Getty Images)

ByNews Desk

Jordan’s King Abdullah II approved a royal decree on 19 May to “restrict the contacts, residence, and movements” of his half-brother, Prince Hamzah bin Hussein, who was accused last year of orchestrating an alleged sedition case that shook the Arab country.

In a statement posted on social media, the Royal Hashemite Court of Jordan said it approved this measure due to what it described as the prince’s “irresponsible” behavior, which “could cause instability in the country.”

In early April this year, Prince Hamzah renounced his title of prince and publicly apologized for his behavior.

Royal Decree approves recommendation of council formed under Royal Family Law to restrict communications, place of residence, and movements of Prince Hamzah. Following is the translation of His Majesty King Abdullah II’s letter to Jordanians:https://t.co/aCbjrKSc19

— RHC (@RHCJO) May 19, 2022

Abdullah II said he delayed this recent measure to give Hamzah “another chance,” but finally implemented it because the former prince “continues to deny all facts and evidence, is “manipulating reality and living in an illusion,” according to the note.

“I came to the conclusion that he will never change, and my conviction was strengthened with every fact and every word,” the King noted, accusing Hamzah of “seeing himself as the one responsible for the Hashemite legacy,” referring to Jordan’s royal family.

Likewise, King Abdullah also accused the former prince of “turning away from his family for many years,” and “opting for negative behavior … and being surrounded by people who promote the opposition.”

On 3 April, Prince Hamzah bin Hussein announced the relinquishment of his royal title.

Prince Hamzah bin Hussein made the announcement on Twitter.

pic.twitter.com/HSuet5cpht

— Hamzah bin AlHussein (@HamzahHKJ) April 3, 2022

The statement explains that the decision was based on “current approaches, policies and methods of our institutions” that could not be reconciled with the convictions of Prince Hamzah.

But while the statement refrained from criticizing the King or other ruling elites, the move was seen as a continuation of the strained relations between Hamzah and his half-brother.

Hamzah has clashed with the Royal Hashemite Court of Jordan in the past.

In early April 2021, Jordanian authorities accused Hamzah of having had contact with external parties and carrying out “movements and activities” aimed at destabilizing the security of Jordan, for which he was placed under house arrest, state news agency Petra reported.

The State Security Court sentenced two members of the royal court to 15 years in prison after finding them guilty of “incitement against the king, carrying hostile intentions against the state and seeking to sow anarchy and sedition in the country.”

JordanKing Abdullah IIPrince Hamzah bin HusseinrestrictionsRoyal Hashemite Court of JordanseditionState Security Court

Secret Meeting between “Israel’s” Bennett, Jordan’s King Abdullah

09/07/2021

By Staff- Agencies

“Israeli” Prime Minister Naftali Bennett reportedly took a secret trip to Jordan last week and met with King Abdullah II at his palace in Amman in the first meeting between the two sides after years of strained ties.

According to a report by Walla News website, the meeting was very positive.

At the top of the meeting, Bennett informed King Abdullah that he was prepared to approve a deal for the sale of more water from the “Israeli”-occupied territories to Jordan, beyond the quota provided by the 1994 so-called bilateral peace agreement.

“Both Bennett and the Jordanian king agreed to turn the page and resume normal dialogue,” the official said.

The Zionist entity said this appeared to be a tit-for-tat move for Jordanian Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah’s canceled trip to Al-Aqsa compound.

The meeting marked the first time Abdullah has met an “Israeli” prime minister since he hosted Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018. That meeting was also held in secret and only announced after it took place.

“Israeli” media outlets indicated on Thursday evening that Jordanian officials were unhappy with the fact that the meeting leaked out, since the two sides had agreed it would not be publicized.

A source told “Israel’s” Channel 12 TV that the news “embarrassed the king and it will definitely affect the ties” between Amman and Tel Aviv.

Bennett’s office contacted the Jordanians after the news of the meeting spread, and told them it was not responsible for the leak, “Israel’s” Kan News reported.

Leaks of the meeting came hours after “Israeli” foreign minister Yair Lapid met with his Jordanian counterpart, Ayman Safadi, on the Jordanian side of the King Hussein Bridge, which connects the occupied West Bank with Jordan.

The Washington Post Details US, ‘Israel’, Saudi Role in Coup Plot Against Jordan King

14/06/2021

By Staff, Agencies

The Zionist entity, Saudi Arabia and the US joined forces to pressure Jordan’s King Abdullah II to partake in the US-sponsored “normalization deals” with Tel Aviv, according to the Washington Post.

The Jordanian monarch resisted the attempts, leading to a plot to “destabilize” the country, that ensnared the king’s half-brother Prince Hamza and former senior officials Bassem Awadallah and Sharif Hassan bin Zaid.

According to the report, Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman [MBS], former Zionist PM Benjamin Netanyahu and former US President Donald Trump were at the center of the intrigue.

“It became a belief of Trump that the king was a hindrance” to his plan, a former senior CIA official was quoted as saying.

The report noted the close relations that Trump and his son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner had forged with MBS, Saudi Arabia’s de-facto ruler.

Abdullah was said to be concerned those expanded ties came at Jordan’s expense, because of his reservations over the US proposal for the Middle East.

Abdullah is recognized as the custodian of the Haram esh-Sharif and the al-Aqsa Compound, and other Muslim sites in the Old City, which the Zionist regime occupied in the 1967 Six Day War.

The newspaper wrote that Abdullah felt the US, ‘Israel’ and Saudi Arabia were trying to push him out as custodian.

As Kushner’s campaign to advance Trump’s plan picked up last year, he also hoped to help facilitate a normalization pact between the Zionist entity and Saudi Arabia, according to the report. However, Abdullah was seen as an obstacle to such a rapprochement.

A key figure in the report was Awadallah, one of the former senior officials implicated in the alleged recent plot. Awadallah, a cabinet minister and onetime head of the royal court, moved to Saudi Arabia in 2018 and became close with the Saudi crown prince.

“A sticking point for us is al-Aqsa. The king [Abdullah] uses that to browbeat us and keep his role in the Middle East,” Awadallah was reported to say regarding the US plan.

An unnamed former US official, according to the report, said he was told by Awadallah that “MBS is upset because he can’t get a deal because he can’t handle the reactions of Palestinians if the king holds his position” on occupied al-Quds.

The Post also quoted from a Jordanian investigative report on the coup plot.

“Awadallah was working to promote the ‘deal of the century’ and weaken Jordan’s position and the King’s position on Palestine and the Hashemite Custodianship of Islamic and Christian holy sites in al-Quds,” the Jordanian report said.

According to the same report, bin Zaid, the other senior Jordanian official implicated alongside Awadallah, met in 2019 with two officials from a foreign embassy in Amman “to inquire about their country’s position on supporting Prince Hamzah as an alternative to the King.”

The Post said an unnamed Western official who gave him the report believes the embassy was likely the US mission in the Jordanian capital.

انقلاب في الأردن أم في أميركا؟

*كاتب وباحث سياسي

الأخبار

عمرو علان

الثلاثاء 13 نيسان 2021

تتميّز المملكة الأردنية الهاشمية بموقع جغرافي مميّز، فهي تشكل فاصلاً جغرافياً وحاجزاً بشرياً بين الكيان الصهيوني وبين العراق والسعودية، وبصورة ما أيضاً بين سوريا والكيان الغاصب، إذا ما أخذنا في الحسبان الحدود الأردنية السورية المشتركة، بالإضافة إلى كون الحدود بين الأردن وفلسطين المحتلة هي الأطول من بين دول الطوق.

أما سياسياً، فالمَلَكية في الأردن وأجهزة الدولة تربطهما مع المملكة المتحدة البريطانية والولايات المتحدة الأميركية علاقات وثيقة وقديمة أمنياً واستخبارياً وعسكرياً، ناهيكم بالعلاقات المميزة بين الحكم الأردني وبين الكيان الصهيوني، تتضافر كل هذه العوامل لتجعل الأردن ذا أهمية خاصة في الإستراتيجية الأميركية تُجاه العالم العربي، لذلك تُعد ديمومة الحكم في الأردن واستقراره من المسلّمات في العقيدة الأميركية، وبناءً عليه يُستبعد حصول أي تغيير أو محاولات تغيير في الحكم الأردني دون أن تكون لها ارتباطات دولية وإقليمية، أو دون أن تكون محكومة بسقف أميركي لا يسمح بانزلاق الساحة الأردنية إلى فوضى غير منضبطة، تُفضي إلى انعكاسات أمنية خطيرة على كيان العدو. إذن كيف يمكن تفسير إجهاض ما بات مرجّحاً أنه كان محاولة لاستبدال رأس الحكم الأردني عبر إحلال الأمير حمزة بن الحسين وليّ العهد السابق محل أخيه غير الشقيق الملك عبدالله الثاني؟
بدايةً نستذكر «صفقة القرن» التي طرحها الرئيس الأميركي السابق دونالد ترامب، والتي كانت ترتكز على ثلاثي ترامب وابن سلمان ونتنياهو، وكان واضحاً عدم رضى الأردن الرسمي عن تلك الصفقة بما تشكّله من تهديد مباشر للوصاية الهاشمية على المقدّسات في القدس المحتلة، ومن حيث كونها مقدمة لتنفيذ مخطط الوطن البديل في الأردن، وكان حضور الملك عبدالله الثاني لقمة القدس الاستثنائية التي عُقدت في إسطنبول في كانون الأول/ ديسمبر 2017 برغم الضغوط الإقليمية التي تعرّض لها آنذاك مع محمود عباس لثنيهما عن الحضور علامة فارقة في العلاقات السعودية الأردنية، حيث ظهرت للعلن بعدها آثار توتر العلاقات عبر وقف المساعدات السعودية للأردن وعبر ضغوط أخرى، لكن ما شهدناه في الأيام القليلة الماضية يشير إلى أن تأزّم العلاقات هو أكثر عمقاً مما كان ظاهراً، وأنه مذّاك الحين بدأت السعودية والإمارات بالتعاون مع نتنياهو بالإعداد إلى استبدال رأس الحكم في الأردن ضمن مسعى تنفيذ «صفقة القرن»، وعلى الأرجح أن ذلك كان بعلم ورضى أميركيين لما يشكّله الأردن من أهمية في الاستراتيجية الأميركية.

ما موقع الأردن من الإستراتيجية الجديدة لإدارة بايدن؟ هل تقرر تحويل المملكة الهاشميّة إلى ما يشبه قاعدة عسكرية أمريكية؟

لكن تعثر تطبيق «صفقة القرن»، وصعود الديمقراطيين إلى سدة الحكم الذين جاؤوا باستراتيجية مغايرة لتلك التي اتّبعها ترامب، يبدو أنهما فرضا تبديلاً في الأولويات الأميركية وتغييراً في طريقة التعاطي الأميركي مع ملفات المنطقة، ولقد كان لافتاً إبرام الاتفاقية العسكرية الأميركية الأردنية أخيراً، التي لاقت استياءً كبيراً في الأوساط الأردنية لما تتضمنه من تنازل عن السيادة الأردنية لمصلحة القوات العسكرية الأميركية، والتي تُحوِّل الأردن على امتداد أراضيه إلى قاعدة عسكرية أميركية، وقد تزامن توقيع هذه الاتفاقية مع الإعلان عن إحباط محاولة إطاحة العاهل الأردني عبدالله الثاني، لذلك يصير من المشروع ربط الخطوتين، إحداهما بالأخرى.
إذا ما صحّت هذه القراءة، فنحن نشهد انقلاباً في الإستراتيجية الأميركية تُجاه المنطقة العربية اقتضى طيّ صفحة مشروع سابق لمصلحة مسار جديد يتم العمل به، ويصير معه البعد الداخلي الأردني للأحداث تفصيلاً، ويصبح السؤالان الأهم: ما الذي ترسمه إدارة جو بايدن للمستقبل؟ وما هو موقع الأردن في هذه الإستراتيجية الجديدة الذي يلزمه معها تحويل الأردن إلى ما يشبه القاعدة العسكرية الأميركية؟
من المبكر الإجابة عن هذين التساؤلين بشكل قطعي، فنحن في انتظار تكشُّف المزيد من المعطيات، لكن من المفروغ منه أن احتمالية الانسحاب الأميركي من العراق، ومصير التوصل إلى تفاهم في الملف النووي الإيراني من عدمه، وما يخفيه الأميركي لسوريا في قابل الأيام، هي قضايا لعبت كلها أو بعضها دوراً في الهزة غير المسبوقة التي شهدها الأردن في هذه الأيام القليلة، وفي تحويل الأردن إلى منصة عسكرية أميركية يمكن استعمالها بصورة أو بأخرى.

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What Just Happened In Jordan?

By Andrew Korybko

Source

Last weekend’s arrest of several prominent people in Jordan, including the unofficial house arrest of former Crown Prince Hamzah, on suspicion of conspiring to destabilize the country in possible coordination with foreign intelligence agencies is more than likely a preemptive security operation aimed at thwarting a latent threat and not an urgent response to what some have feared was an imminent regime change attempt.

An Unexpected Conspiracy In The Heshemite Kingdom

Jordan is one of those few countries that’s friends with everyone and enemies with no one, which is why the world paid attention last weekend after the arrest of several prominent people on suspicion of conspiring to destabilize the country in possible coordination with foreign intelligence agencies. This included the unofficial house arrest of former Crown Prince Hamzah, who subsequently released footage of himself condemning alleged corruption in the monarchy that he claimed was responsible for worsening his citizens’ living standards, after which he pledged loyalty to King Abdullah II to de-escalate the crisis (presumably while under pressure). Former Crown Prince Hamzah had also reportedly met with some tribal leaders who’ve purportedly been unhappy with the stagnant – if not, according to some accounts, gradually deteriorating – socio-economic situation in the Kingdom. Amman has since banned all coverage of this palace scandal on traditional and social media in an attempt to quell the uncertainty that it provoked in this so-called “oasis of regional stability”.

A Saudi, “Israeli”, Or Joint Saudi-”Israeli” Coup Attempt?

These fast-moving developments prompted a lot of speculation about what might really be going on behind the scenes, especially concerning the possible role of foreign intelligence agencies. It can’t be known for sure, but it doesn’t seem like there was any imminent regime change attempt that was thwarted at the last possible minute by the security services. Rather, it appears to be the case that the government staged a preemptive security operation after finally obtaining enough indisputable evidence that something foul was afoot, hoping to nip this latent threat in the bud long before it blooms. Some have suggested that the connections that two of the detained individuals have with Saudi Arabia hints at Riyadh’s covert involvement in recent events. Others, meanwhile, saw a hidden “Israeli” hand behind everything due to the Mossad ties that the businessman who reportedly offered to fly former Crown Prince Hamzah out of the country is alleged to have. It’s unlikely, however, that those secretly allied governments played any significant role in what just happened in Jordan.

Interpreting The Reported Foreign Intelligence Connections

It’s an open secret that foreign intelligence agencies, especially those based and/or active in the Mideast, cultivate a broad network of agents, informants, and “useful idiots”. Neither Saudi Arabia nor “Israel” have any serious problems with Jordan that can’t be amicably resolved, and therefore wouldn’t benefit from a destabilizing regime change in the neighboring kingdom between them. It’s therefore likely the case that while both of their intelligence agencies probably at least have some indirect presence close to the Jordanian royal family, they each lack the strategic motivation whether unilaterally or jointly with one another to overthrow King Abdullah II. In all likelihood, they might have been aware of former Crown Prince Hamzah’s recent meetings with increasingly unhappy tribal leaders and perhaps even his speculative resentment at being passed over for the throne by the current King in favor of the latter’s son in 2004, but it’s doubtful that they sought to operationalize this in any way. They likely only observed and monitored it, that’s all.

A Possible Disruption To The “Phased Leadership Transition”?

This brings the analysis around to discussing the domestic situation in Jordan. Many people are reportedly unhappy with everything there, and have allegedly been so for quite a while already, but the majority of the population is also loyal to the royal family and doesn’t seem to harbor any serious aspirations of replacing it with a republican form of government or any other. Like all monarchies, Jordan will inevitably undergo a “phased leadership transition” one way or another when power is transferred from the current King to his successor at some point in the future, but it’s here where the security services might have feared that a speculatively resentful former Crown Prince Hamzah might try to make a last-ditch move in an attempt to reassert what he and his unclear network of supporters (likely a combination of civil society elements, tribal leaders, and perhaps even some members of the royal family) believe is his rightful claim to the throne. They therefore probably acted preemptively in order to thwart that scenario before it had a chance to materialize.

Concluding Thoughts

As it stands, Jordan’s stability doesn’t seem threatened. Palace intrigue is normal in any monarchy, just like intrigue between members of a democracy’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) is too, but it was nevertheless unexpected that something so dramatic took place in Jordan last weekend since few thought that such intrigue had became so intense to warrant such a high-profile security response. At the very least, former Crown Prince Hamzah’s reported closeness with increasingly frustrated but also supposedly influential tribal leaders was a cause of serious concern for the Kingdom’s security services since they feared that it represented a latent regime change threat which might materialize in the midst of the inevitable “phased leadership transition” from King Abdullah II to his son sometime in the future. There might even be a bit more to it than just that, but it’s extremely unlikely that any such speculation will ever be confirmed. For now, King Abdullah II doesn’t seem to have anything to worry about except for the economy.

هل انتهى الأردن نموذج 1930؟

د. وفيق إبراهيم

الانقلاب الذي أصاب الحكم الأردني منذ عدة أيام، ليس عملاً عادياً يُراد منه تغيير أمير بملك كما يحدث في معظم البلدان.

الاشارة الأولى الى ان الانقلاب كان ضخماً ولم ينجح، وسكتت عنه قوى مجاورة، لم يكن أحد يعتقد أنها قادرة على الصمت، يكفي ان المتورطين هم أصحاب أحجام كبيرة وارتباطات خارجية أكثر.

يبدو أن الملك عبدالله الثاني انتبه منذ مدة قياسية الى شيء ما يدور في الأجنحة العسكرية والسياسية لمملكته بهدف إقصائه فاحتاط بانياً شبكة امان من حوله لأسباب عديدة، اولها ان الغليان يضرب المنطقة من سورية الى فلسطين مروراً بلبنان ومصر، لقد شعر أن تغييراً كبيراً يستهدف الكيان الأردني السياسي بهدف إنهاء قضية فلسطين، وهذا غير ممكن إلا بإنهاء الاردن السياسي وإيجاد حلول نهائية لنحو مليون ونصف فلسطيني مقيمين ويرتبطون بأعداد مماثلة منهم في سورية ولبنان، ما يعني أن ثلاثة ملايين فلسطيني كانوا عرضة لقبض تعويضات محترمة من جهات إسرائيلية ودولية لينتقلوا الى بلدان آسيوية وغربية. وهذا أمر سهل ليس له ما يحول دونه. فالسيسي مثلاً مستعدّ بنخوة القادر على التلاعب بقناة السويس بدمج أكثر من مليون فلسطيني مقابل مبالغ معلومة وتأييد غربي سياسي.

وكذلك بعض بلدان شمال أفريقيا المتأهبة لدمج فلسطينيين مقابل تأييد غربي سياسي لها كحال المغرب وليبيا والجزائر.

الانقلاب الأخير إذاً ليس مجرد تغيير عادي في الحكم بقدر ما أراد الذهاب نحو إنهاء القضية الفلسطينية على أساس إبعاد ملايين الفلسطينيين من الأردن وإلغاء الدور السياسي للأردن المتأسس منذ 1930 كفاصل بين فلسطين المحتلة والاردن له وظائف استيعاب المهاجرين الفلسطينيين وإقفال طرق الخليج من جزيرة العرب وفلسطين المحتلة.

فهل أراد انقلاب الامير حمزة بين الحسين تحقيق إجراءات سياسية عديدة تجري دائماً عقب كل انقلاب عسكري ام ان الذين يقفون خلفه، نحوا منحى إلغاء الاردن السياسي وانهاء القضية الفلسطينية؟

خصوصاً أن الجهود المبذولة لإنجاح الانقلاب لم تكن عادية لأنها شملت مراكب قوى كبرى في دولة عادية كالأردن، ولا يمكن لأحد ان يصدق أن الاميركيين والاسرائيليين لم يكونوا على علم بذلك ويذهبون مذهب تشجيعه؟

أما لماذا التشجيع فلإنهاء القضية الفلسطينية بإنهاء دور الأردن لأنه لم يعد مطلوباً كما كان في الثلاثينيات.

هنا يقول المتورّطون الخارجيون إن ولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان أراد بقوة تأييده لـ«إسرائيل» فنحا منحى تأييدها بإنهاء قضية فلسطين وهذا لا يكون الا بإنهاء قضية فلسطين المتمركزة سياسياً وايديولوجياً وبيولوجياً في الأردن، لذلك دعم محاولة انقلاب أوهم فيها حمزة بن الحسين أنه يريد الانفتاح على اسرائيل بانقلاب أردني، لا يؤدي الى تغييرات بيولوجية عميقة، بل ينتج تحالفاً أردنياً – إسرائيلياً سعودياً.

بدوره صدّق الحمزة خصوصاً بعد تلقيه كميات كبيرة من المال معتقداً أنها دليل تأييد سعودي وغربي وإسرائيلي في آن معاً.

الهدف اذاً كما يبدو هو تحويل الأردن الى لعبة لإنهاء قضية فلسطين بالتعاون بين ثلاثي رأسه محمد بن سلمان السعودي الذي يريد بقوة حلفاً إسرائيلياً سعودياً، والعرب و«إسرائيل» بأجنحتها اليمينية واليسارية والدينية المتطرفة.

هل هذا يعني انتهاء مرحلة الدلال الأردني مع الأميركيين والإسرائيليين بعد واقعة الانقلاب الأخير؟

يبدو أن هذا الانقلاب ذهب نحو تجديد ممر النظام الأردني من طريق غربي إسرائيلي وسعودي أردني من جهة ثانية، فأصبح صعباً إحداث تغييرات بيولوجية عميقة باستثناء بعض التحسينات السياسية وهذا شيء ممكن قد يدفع اليه الأميركيون والبريطانيون.

ويبدو أن المعونات المالية للأردن الآتية من الإنجليز والسعوديين والإسرائيليين قد تشهد تطوراً كبيراً له وظائف متعددة أهمها تأكيد استمرارية النظام السياسي الأردني كحال الأنظمة العربية المماثلة.

كما أن الأميركيين أخذوا على عاتقهم تأمين دعم خليجي كبير للأردن من السعودية والإمارات والكويت ودولة الإمارات. وهذا يعني العمر المديد لأصحاب الأعمار القصيرة.

هذا ما أكده أمين سر المملكة باسم عوض الله الذي كشف أن الاردن اجتاز مرحلة جديدة برعاية أميركية سعودية إسرائيلية وأمراء أردنيين.

سياسياً، يذهب الملك الأردني عبدالله ناحية بناء تحالفات مع مصر و«إسرائيل» والإمارات ومحمد بن سلمان والغرب الاميركي والأوروبي لتأمين استقرار قوي لمملكة الأردن التي لا تنتج شيئاً وتتلقى رواتبها من الدول الأجنبية كل شهر جديد، كالعمال تماماً. أهذه دولة؟

لم تنته اذاً خدمة الأردن التاريخية مع تأمين انضباط كبير لكامل أمراء العائلة المالكة، على ان يتولى الراعي الأميركي توفير الحماية للراعي الملكي واخواته والعاملين عنده من كافة الاتجاهات مع منع الفلسطينيين من أية اتجاهات مستقلة والبقاء تحت رايات الهاشميين يصِلون سعودية محمد بن سلمان وبن غوريون وجيش العدو بقوات فلسطينيّة.

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