Qatar Crisis And The War in Libya

South Front

Qatar Crisis And The War in Libya

Conflict Origins

The war in Libya was caused not so much by any internal dissent but rather by the West’s need for continued economic expansion, which Western elites view as part and parcel of the post-Cold War “end of history”, a still-potent messianic ideology which gives the West the license to attack anyone, anywhere, to achieve its mercantilist objectives, and which gives contains the necessary humanitarian “fig leaf” for the benefit of the politically correct faction of Western societies.

Naturally, politically correct Westerners have been unbothered by the  “humanitarian interventions” invariably making the situation far worse, and Libya has not been an exception. Since the fall of the regime of Muammar al-Gaddafi, Libya has not experienced any political, financial or even social stability, as the country is witnessing a state of constant fighting between all parties despite the absence of any religious or sectarian differences between the population, where Libya turned from one of the richest countries in the world to a failed state.

Two Libyas

The current war in Libya began in 2014, with most of the fighting being between the internationally-recognized Tobruk-based Libyan Interim Government centered on the House of Representatives that was elected democratically in 2014 , an Islamist National Salvation Government government founded by the General National Congress based in Tripoli city, and the UN-backed Government of National Accord also based in Tripoli.

The Libyan Interim Government has the allegiance of the Libyan National Army under the leadership of General “Khalifa Haftar”  and enjoys the support of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates directly, with indirect support from both the United States and Britain and Russia, with the latter country’s affinity to Haftar clearly demonstrated when the Libyan general boarded the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier in January 2017, as the ship was returning home from its combat mission at the coast of Syria. It is a secular entity and has the sole legitimate power in Libya. Since 2014, Egypt has supplied many light and heavy weapons to the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar, which included several MiG-21 fighters. The United Arab Emirates also provides financial support to Haftar and has a small airbase in eastern Libya, including AT-802 turboprop light attack aircraft and WingLoong UAVs which appear to be operated by Erik Prince’s Academi (formerly Blackwater) Private Military Company.

The emergence of the Libyan Interim Government was made possible by the withdrawal of House of Representatives support for the Government of National Accord, whose power has since greatly decreased.

Instead, the chief opponent of the LIG is the Islamic government of the General National Congress, also called the “Salvation Government”,  which is led by the Muslim Brotherhood with support from a coalition of Islamic groups known as “Dawn of Libya”. It is believed that one of the combat groups of the General National Congress was involved in the assassination of US Ambassador Christopher Stevens in 2012. The Muslim Brotherhood are also accused of providing political cover to ISIS during its expansion in Libya before 2014, which is a plausible accusation considering Qatar’s tangible support to both ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood.

It too enjoys international support by Qatar, Turkey, and Sudan, with the former two countries playing roles identical to they played in the Syrian conflict.  Qatar’s considerable contribution included  financial support to the General National Congress and smuggling arms using C-130 military cargo planes in cooperation with Sudan, while Turkey has smuggled arms to the  “Dawn of Libya”  using ships. Turkey also benefits from illegal oil trade with the militia, according to unconfirmed reports.

Since 2014, ISIS has had strong influence in much of Libya, especially in Darnah east of Banghazi, but this influence of the terrorist organization has shrunk over time. However, Libya is one of the bases of recruitment and money laundering for ISIS, where ISIS is believed to has received indirect support from Turkey, Qatar and the General National Congress. Moreover, ISIS views Libya as an operating base from which to stage expansion into countries of the Sahel and to aid ISIS cells operating in Tunisia and Egypt.

Completing the list of warring parties, Tuareg forces control southwestern Libya, including Amazigh and Ghat area, and are considered indirect allies of the General National Congress.

The Qatar-Turkey “Axis”

Given the balance of forces outlined above, the conflict in Libya would have come to a close years ago had it not been for the direct involvement of the Qatar-Turkey alliance, whose aggressive acts against Syria had likewise escalated that conflict. To be sure, the Qatar-Turkey alliance was one of convenience, with the two parties pursuing different objectives which simply happened to be not mutually exclusive.

For Turkey, the aim of the game at the time was neo-Ottomanism. Both Syria and Libya are, after all, parts of the former Ottoman Empire, with the former being wrested from its grasp by the French and the British at the end of World War I, and the former falling to Italy in Italo-Turkish War of 1911-1912. For Qatar, the objective was establishing oneself as a regional power player not only independent of Saudi Arabia but also equivalent to it, a task that would have been greatly facilitated by establishing Qatar-friendly regimes in Libya and Syria, extending Qatar’s control over the region’s hydrocarbons, and gaining access to new markets in Europe. That final point of the Turkey-Qatar strategy was welcome by European factions favoring continued eastward expansion because the Qatari gas pipeline could be used as a political weapon against Russia.

The Turning Point?

However, that coalition proved too weak to overcome the resistance of legitimate government forces in Libya and Syria, particularly after the direct Russian military involvement in Syria spelled the end of the “Assad must go” campaign, and it never managed to secure the support of the United States for either of its objectives. The US, for its part, attempted to sponsor its own jihadists in Syria or favored the Saudi-led efforts. Therefore it was only a matter of time before either Turkey or Qatar realized its strategy was doomed and sought to pursue a different course of action. Turkey proved the weaker link in that coalition thanks to, ironically, US enlistment of the Kurds as its proxy army in Syria. Faced with an impossible to dislodge Russian presence in Syria, Turkey opted to change its aims to become an “energy gateway” to Europe by joining forces with Russia in the form of the Turkish Stream pipeline.

Worse, while initially the West was generally in favor of any and all forms of “Arab Spring”, including the Turkish-Qatari efforts in both Syria and Libya, by 2016 it was becoming clear the downsides were outweighing the positives. The refugee crisis, in particular, that became a potent political issue threatening the unchallenged liberal status quo had forced a re-evaluation of the policy, lest the likes of Front National or AfD come to power in Europe. Even the US, which did not receive a flood of Middle East refugees, was affected.  On April 11, 2016, Obama was forced to admit that Libya was the “worst mistake” he had committed during his presidency as the mistake was that the United States did not plan for the post-Gaddafi era. He was not doing it because of any sorrow for the citizens of countries he despoiled, but rather because the resulting chaos was now negatively affecting Hillary Clinton’s chances to win.

But it was Donald Trump who delivered what surely will be a fatal blow to Qatar’s international ambitions, first by giving a green light to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to pounce on Qatar, and then directly accusing it of sponsoring terrorists. The ensuing blockade of Qatar meant that the country’s leaders would have little time or money to continue financing militants in Libya or Syria. Indeed, shortly after the Qatar blockade was imposed, the Russian military stated the war in Syria, other than the fighting against ISIS, had practically ground to a standstill.

Considering that Turkey and Qatar have been the main obstacles to ending the war in Libya, Turkey’s defection followed by the US-authorized Saudi political and economic assault on Qatar have implications not only for Syria but also for Libya. Indeed, there are already many signs the political situation in Libya is evolving. Arguably the biggest development in recent months was the release of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Muammar Gaddafi’s son, by a Tobruk-based militia upon a request from the House of Representatives. With Saif al-Islam Gaddafi being wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged atrocities committed by the Libyan government during the 2011 war, the fact of his release indicates the political fortunes are now favoring the House of Representatives and Marshal Haftar, a shift also suggested by British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s statements in support of Haftar playing  an important role in Libyan politics and the new French President Macron’s admission the war in Libya was a major mistake.

But here the Western officials seem to be following the trends rather than making them, as the root cause of the shift appears to be the sudden weakening of Qatar’s positions in the region. Egypt is a clear beneficiary of that weakening and is intent on pressing its advantage, to the point of pro-Sisi Egyptian media actually advocating bombing of Qatar. The Qatari disarray is also made apparent by LNA’s recent announcement that the Qatari opposition has provided the LNA with a list of Libyan citizens who worked for Qatar’s intelligence services.

Honorable Peace or Humiliating Defeat?

Qatar’s situation is not an enviable one. For the time being Turkey’s military support and the US unwillingness to allow Saudi Arabia to utterly devastate Qatar are enough to allow it to maintain a brave face. But in the longer term it needs to find an accommodation with at least one of the key power players in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, US, or…Russia. The fact of growing Turkey-Russia cooperation on a variety of issues and Qatar’s outreach to Russia in the form of a foreign minister visit and the simplification of visa rules for Russian citizens, suggests that Qatar is at least contemplating realigning its alliance membership. However, considering that all of the three above-named powers are on the opposite side of the barricades as far as Libya is concerned, it seems unlikely Qatar can maintain its proxy war there even with Turkey’s support. Therefore, almost no matter what Qatar decides to do next, it will have no choice but to write off Libya as a total loss, an act that will hasten the end of this tragic six-year war.

U.S. Wants Control Over Anbar And Beyond – Iraq and Syria Will Prevent It

By Moon Of Alabama

“May 31, 2017 “Information Clearing House” – The U.S. is casting its net over the desert between Iraq and Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan to install military bases and power-structures that will guarantee major influence in the area for the foreseeable future. A part of that plan is to develop Sunni proxy forces that will keep the government forces of Damascus and Baghdad out of the area. Another part is to privatize important infrastructure to keep it under direct U.S. control.

To privatize the Iraqi Highway 1 between Baghdad and the Jordanian capital Amman, is a major point in these plans. According to the NYT:

As part of an American effort to promote economic development in Iraq and secure influence in the country after the fight against the Islamic State subsides, the American government has helped broker a deal between Iraq and Olive Group, a private security company, to establish and secure the country’s first toll highway.

The map shows Highway 1 from Baghdad to Amman. Notice the road junction east of the Jordan-Iraq border. There the road splits with one branch going north-west towards Damascus. The point where that road crosses from Iraq to Syria is the al-Tanf border station currently occupied by U.S. forces and their British and Norwegian auxiliaries as well some Syrian “rebels” under U.S. control. The U.S. recently bombed a convoy of Syrian and allied Iraqi forces which was moving towards that area.  The U.S. military dropped leaflets to Syrian troops to order them to stay away from their own border. Who the f*** do those U.S. troops think they are? What is there justification to be there in the first place? Large Iraq and Syrian government forces are now moving towards al-Tanf from the two sides of the border to evict the occupiers. Iraq, Syria, Iran and Russia have agreed that no U.S. position will be tolerated there. U.S. and other foreign troops will either move out voluntary from al-Tanf or they will be removed by force.

Highway 1 and its branch to Damascus is the most important economic lifeline between Syria and Jordan in the west and Iraq and beyond in the east. Whoever controls it, controls major parts of commerce between those countries. Iraq is a country with rich resources. While it is under economic strains after decades of U.S. sanctions and war against it by the U.S. and Takfiri proxy forces it has no long-term need to rent out such major real estate.

Nevertheless the current Iraqi government under Prime Minister al-Abadi signed a preliminary agreement for a 25 year contract with the U.S. company:

Mr. Abadi has awarded the development project to Olive Group, although the final details are still being worked out. The project would include repairing bridges in western Anbar Province; refurbishing the road, known as Highway 1; and building service stations, rest areas and roadside cafes. It would also include mobile security by private contractors for convoys traveling the highway.

Al Abeidi is now under pressure from the Shia majority who elected him into office to renounce the deal. It is obviously that the deal is not in their interest nor that of the country. According to U.S. diplomats one purpose of the deal is:

pushing back on the influence of Shiite Iran, whose growing power in Iraq has alarmed important Sunni allies of the United States like Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Iran has little to do with the road. It is the Shia majority of Iraq that would benefit most from free flowing traffic and commerce on it.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia have enabled the Sunni insurgency in Iraq of which ISIS is just the latest incarnation. To allow the U.S. to control the road and thereby Anbar province in the name of Turkey and Saudi Arabia would guarantee that future Sunni insurgencies could threaten Baghdad whenever “needed”. Just remember how Obama said he used ISIS to throw then Prime Minster Maliki out of office:

The reason, the president added, “that we did not just start taking a bunch of airstrikes all across Iraq as soon as ISIL came in was because that would have taken the pressure off of [Prime Minister Nuri Kamal] al-Maliki.

A U.S. controlled west-Iraq and south-eastern Syria would be a highway for Saudi Arabian miscreants from their country up towards Baghdad and Damascus. It would be an incarnation of the “Salafist principality” the U.S. and other early ISIS supporters have wished for since at least 2012.

The U.S. is willing to obfuscate and to lie to further its imperial plans. The NYT is, as usual, complicit in that:

Playing on painful memories and fears of Iraqis, news outlets have also run false reports that Blackwater — the private security firm that acted with impunity in the early days of the American occupation and gunned down innocent Iraqis in Baghdad’s Nisour Square in 2007 — had taken on the project.

“The politics of this country are challenging,” said Christian Ronnow, executive vice president of Constellis, the parent company of Olive Group, a private security firm that has worked for years in Iraq.

What the NYT claims are “false reports” are in fact reasonable conclusions:

The [Constellis] Group combines the specialized skills and operational excellence of ACADEMI, Edinburgh International, Strategic Social and Triple Canopy,

ACADEMI

is an American private military company founded in 1997 by former Navy SEAL officer Erik Prince as Blackwater, renamed as XE Services in 2009 and now known as Academi since 2011 after the company was acquired by a group of private investors.

Olive Group is Constellis Group is Academi is Blackwater – the “false reports” in Iraqi media are way more truthful on that than the NYT is.

The U.S. project in Anbar province and its potential control of Highway 1 through private U.S. forces threatens to put an economic stranglehold on Iraq, Syria and Jordan. I trust that nationalist forces in those countries as well as their allies will do their best to prevent it.

This article was first published by Moon Of Alabama

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Information Clearing House.

Click for Spanish, German, Dutch, Danish, French, translation- Note- Translation may take a moment to load.

Blackwater Training Syria Terrorists

Local Editor

They wear the latest and most advanced body armor and helmets, camouflage gear and anti-ballistic sunglasses: the fashion statement favored by frontline private security companies across the world’s combat zones. Blackwater fighters are in Syria training terrorists who have found a new way of cashing in on the self-styled “caliphate”.

Blackwater Training Syria Terrorists

Blackwater became the most high-profile of Western ‘security’ contractors in Iraq, gaining notoriety as the most violent and aggressive of the corporate military firms that spotted a highly lucrative trade following the “liberation” of the country in 2003. Such firms were largely immune from scrutiny or prosecution: that changed after a particularly bloody day in Baghdad.

The small group, of about a dozen drawn mainly from Central Asia, has been an enthusiastic user of social media. At the end of 2016, it placed advertisements in Facebook looking for instructors who were prepared to “constantly engage, develop and learn”. The company’s YouTube pages provide free guides ranging from weapons maintenance and laying ambushes to battlefield first aid.

The leader and founder of the term Malhama, a private military contractor that means business and a firm which is “fun and friendly” according to its online brochures – is an Uzbek using the nom de guerre Abu Rofiq who claims to have served in the VDV, a Russian military airborne unit.

Although it was a commercial concern, Rofiq has stressed the religious aspect of its work meant helping “oppressed Sunni Muslims” militarily, beyond Syria.

Chechen and other Caucasian groups have been active in other fronts, carrying out attacks in Russia and states allied to the Kremlin in the region.

Blackwater’s training and arming of the militants had begun as a slow and often chaotic process in Syria.

As the uprising descended into a vicious bloodbath, the flow of arms into Syria went up massively in quantity and quality. Some “moderate” opposition fighters trained and armed by the Americans in Jordan and Turkey surrendered with their weapons to extremist groups on crossing the border.

Abu Rofiq is said to have seen the training opportunities for terrorists after first going to Syria in 2013. He began to bring in experienced fighters from the Caucasus before starting Malhama with a dozen others in the beginning of 2016. The company has been working with Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, the new name taken by al-Nusra Front, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, as well as Ahrar al-Sham, a terrorist group which had been backed by Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

There has been a strong presence of extremists from the Caucasus in Syria for a while. They have built up a reputation as the fiercest and most dedicated of the foreign fighters. One of the most effective military chiefs of Daesh was Abu Omar al-Shishani – of Chechen and Georgian background. He was killed in July last year in a US airstrike in the town of Al-Shirkat in Iraq – a significant loss, the terrorists acknowledged, to their leadership.

Source: The Independent, Edited by website team

14-03-2017 | 09:48

 

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4 Dead Russian Ambassadors in 3 Months ~ Foul play?

A farewell to Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Mr Churkin, for well over a decade, featuring Spokeswoman for Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova. Following the Assassination of Andrei Karlov in Turkey earlier this year, was the death of Andrey Melanin in Athens of ‘natural causes’. Ambassador Alexander Kadakin to India had died of an apparent heart attack, even though no previous health issues were known. Together with Vitaly Churkin, this now brings the death total of Russian officials serving in foreign capacity to 4, all within a 3 month period. Coincidence? Or does the CIA have a long arm?

This episode features Mr Churkin dispelling allegations of Russia having dropped leaflets over Aleppo, urging civilians to leave the city or face death. Of course, it is only the senile or those with short memories, who would think that “evidence” presented in the UN Security Council, is anything more than fabricated Neocon garbage. See linked video at the end, with Colin Powell’s “weapons of mass destruction” a.k.a simple washing powder. The 2003 invasion of Iraq, based on this kind of “evidence” would take over half a million Iraqi lives…. To shame. US military deaths cannot be calculated due to contractors such as Blackwater not being included in official statistics. Military industrial company fat cat CEOs only rub their hands in glee.

(Translation thanks to Inessa Sinchougova)

Blackwater/Academi Mercenaries Procured By United Arab Emirates Are Now Fighting In Yemen

MAY 31, 2016

blackwater_xe_academi

By Brandon Turbeville

Receiving scant attention from Western mainstream media outlets except for a few notable exceptions, Americans and many alternative media outlets have remained ignorant to the fact that private mercenaries from Blackwater (aka Academi) appear to have been contracted by the GCC Gulf state feudal monarchies to assist in the military war of terror in Yemen against the Houthi rebels and the embattled Yemeni people.

Still, on December 9, a flurry of reports from media outlets such as Press TVTeleSur TVAl-ManarAl –Bawaba, and Colombia Reports have revealed that around 15 Blackwater mercenaries have been killed in a fierce battles with the Houthi forces.

Al-Masirah, Yemen’s Arabic language website reported that the Commander-In-Chief of the firm’s operation in Yemen, a Mexican national, was killed in the al-Omari district of Ta’izz Province.

Press TV reports that a number of British, French, and Australian advisers and commanders as well as six Colombian soldiers were killed.

In late November of 2015, it was reported that around 1,800 former Latin American soldiers who had been recruited by a program once managed by Blackwater founder Erik Prince were being trained in the desert of the United Arab Emirates to be used against the Houthis at some point.

It was estimated that about 450 of the soldiers were from Colombia.

The New York Times wrote that “The United Arab Emirates has secretly dispatched hundreds of Colombian mercenaries to Yemen to fight in that country’s raging conflict, adding a volatile new element in a complex proxy war that has drawn in the United States and Iran.”

El Tiempo placed the mercenary presence much earlier, however, suggesting that 100 Colombian soldiers had entered Yemen in October, a claim corroborated by The New York Times.

Colombia Reports stated that the mercenaries were being paid around $1,000 more per week than what they would have been paid as part of the Emirati deployment, and over triple the amount they would have made as members of the Colombian military. The contracts are allegedly for three-month-front-line service.

The New York Times reported on November 25,

The Colombian troops now in Yemen, handpicked from a brigade of some 1,800 Latin American soldiers training at an Emirati military base, were woken up in the middle of the night for their deployment to Yemen last month. They were ushered out of their barracks as their bunkmates continued sleeping, and were later issued dog tags and ranks in the Emirati military. Those left behind are now being trained to use grenade launchers and armored vehicles that Emirati troops are currently using in Yemen.

Emirati officials have made a point of recruiting Colombian troops over other Latin American soldiers because they consider the Colombians more battle tested in guerrilla warfare, having spent decades battling gunmen of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, in the jungles ofColombia.

The exact mission of the Colombians in Yemen is unclear, and one person involved in the project said it could be weeks before they saw regular combat. They join hundreds of Sudanese soldiers whom Saudi Arabia has recruited to fight there as part of the coalition.

In addition, a recent United Nations report cited claims that some 400 Eritrean troops might be embedded with the Emirati soldiers in Yemen — something that, if true, could violate a United Nations resolution restricting Eritrean military activities.

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The United States has also been participating in the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen, providing logistical support, including airborne refueling, to the nations conducting the airstrikes. The Pentagon has sent a team to Saudi Arabia to provide targeting intelligence to the coalition militaries regularly used for the airstrikes.

The New York Times also reports that, interestingly enough, the training program and the use of Colombian and other third world mercenaries by Gulf State countries has been taking place since as far back as 2010. The article states,

Hundreds of Colombian troops have been trained in the Emirates since the project began in 2010 — so many that the Colombian government once tried to broker an agreement with Emirati officials to stanch the flow headed to the Persian Gulf. Representatives from the two governments met, but an agreement was never signed.

Most of the recruiting of former troops in Colombia is done by Global Enterprises, a Colombian company run by a former special operations commander named Oscar Garcia Batte. Mr. Batte is also co-commander of the brigade of Colombian troops in the Emirates, and is part of the force now deployed in Yemen.

It should also be noted that Blackwater, or at least Erik Prince, was involved in setting up the program early on, although the firm currently denies ties to the program in 2015. Foreign media outlets obviously disagree on the level to which Blackwater and/or Prince’s firm are involved in the program. That the foreign fighters are mercenaries, however, is beyond doubt.
According to Al-Masdar’s Yemen correspondent, Tony Toh, another piece of the puzzle has now been provided in regards to the mission and methodology of the Saudi-Blackwater cooperation. Toh states thatAl-Masirah News, a Yemeni news organization, has revealed that Reflex Responses Management Consultancy LLC is the company doing the actual hiring of mercenaries from Blackwater to fight in Yemen.

RRMC LLC is an Emirati-owned company that specializes in hiring foreign mercenaries and fighters for the UAE’s military.

According to the Yemeni news source, Major General ‘Issa Seif Mohammad Al-Mazrawi, an Emirati officer, is the individual most heavily involved in the deployment of these mercenaries. Al-Masirahalso reports that a contract worth $529 million was signed between RRMC and the UAE government in March, 2015, around the beginning of the Yemeni crisis.

It is clear that the Saudis and the Emirates are grasping at any straws within their reach in order to shore up their faltering military campaign in Yemen and make up for the weakness of their own military forces that have repeatedly demonstrated that the GCC countries are nothing but paper tigers.

Brandon Turbeville – article archive here – is the author of seven books, Codex Alimentarius — The End of Health Freedom7 Real ConspiraciesFive Sense Solutions and Dispatches From a Dissident, volume 1 andvolume 2The Road to Damascus: The Anglo-American Assault on Syria, and The Difference it Makes: 36 Reasons Why Hillary Clinton Should Never Be President. Turbeville has published over 650 articles on a wide variety of subjects including health, economics, government corruption, and civil liberties. Brandon Turbeville’s radio show Truth on The Tracks can be found every Monday night 9 pm EST at UCYTV. His website is BrandonTurbeville.com He is available for radio and TV interviews. Please contact activistpost (at) gmail.com.

This article may be freely shared in part or in full with author attribution and source link.

The Total Collapse of Saudi Regime is Fast Approaching

Syrian Free Press

suadi-regime-funeral-poster

funeral of the Saudi regime drowned in the blood of innocents

To the casual observer, Saudi Arabia might seem like an emboldened nation that is asserting itself. They’ve been challenging Iran, fighting rebels in Yemen, threatening to invade Syria, and if some rumors are to be believed, they are currently trying to attain nuclear missiles from Pakistan. However, these aren’t the actions of a stable nation that is asserting its dominance in the region. These are the flailing death throes of a nation that is struggling to hang on.

Ever since global oil prices started to plummet, Saudi Arabia just hasn’t been the same. That’s no surprise. Since prices fell, other oil rich nations have been hurting as well. Russia’s economy has been on the ropes, Canada is plummeting into a recession, and Venezuela is on the verge of total collapse. However, there probably isn’t any nation on Earth that is more reliant on oil than Saudi Arabia. If anyone is going to be destroyed by low oil prices, it’s the Saudis.

The crux of the matter is that this country is running out of money. It doesn’t look like it at first glance. They’ve only recently started to dip into their enormous savings, and their debt to GDP ratio is remarkably low. However, they are hemorrhaging money at an alarming rate. They’ve been flooding the market with cheap oil to drown out their competition (a dangerous gambit for a government that receives 80% of its revenue from oil) , and they’ve been fighting several expensive proxy wars with Iran, which are not going so well. The situation is so dire that the IMF expects them to run out of money within 5 years.

For most countries this wouldn’t be such a big deal. They would just go into debt and kick the can down the road until their financial system crumbled after many years. But the Saudi’s can’t do that. Their government and their society is structured in such a way that they can’t maintain anything with debt. The reason why is that they are not a traditional nation-state.

In fact, Saudi Arabia is no state at all. There are two ways to describe it: as a political enterprise with a clever but ultimately unsustainable business model, or so corrupt as to resemble in its functioning a vertically and horizontally integrated criminal organization. Either way, it can’t last. It’s past timeU.S. decision-makers began planning for the collapse of the Saudi kingdom.

In recent conversations with military and other government personnel, we were startled at how startled they seemed at this prospect. Here’s the analysis they should be working through.

Understood one way, the Saudi king is CEO of a family business that converts oil into payoffs that buy political loyalty. They take two forms: cash handouts or commercial concessions for the increasingly numerous scions of the royal clan, and a modicum of public goods and employment opportunities for commoners.

Essentially, Saudi Arabia runs on institutionalized bribery. They need cold hard cash to keep the population in line, to keep the ever-growing royal family rich and happy, and to make sure everyone is doing their job. It’s not like what you see in most Western nations, where much of the population has a misplaced sense of civic duty. This system needs cash, and can’t survive on IOUs.

The elites in this society demand a life of perpetual luxury, and government handouts are the only thing keeping the oppressed masses from rebelling. Once they run out of money, everything will fall apart from the bottom up.

But the financial situation isn’t the only problem with the Saudi kingdom. Much of their budget is being burned up from fighting their war in Yemen, which they are losing badly. Dozens of their Blackwater Mercenaries were killed in a missile attack last month, the Yemeni rebels captured one of their military bases two weeks ago (within Saudi territory no less), and last week Yemeni forces managed to capture over a hundred Saudi soldiers.

This is a regime that rules with fear and oppression. How can they do that when their own military can’t beat an insurgency in their own backyard? When the handouts and bribes grind to a halt, and their population is sick and tired of being dominated by the Saudi family, how long do you suppose it will take for them to rebel?

And on top of all that, Saudi Arabia is faced with a severe water crisis. They’re heavily reliant on underground aquifers that aren’t renewable, and they use more water per person than in many Western nations (in fact, twice as much as the average person in the EU). They could run out of water in as little as 13 years. This has prompted the Saudi regime to start taxing water for the first time, partly due to the water crisis, and partly due to falling oil revenues.

As you can see, there are a lot of existential threats bearing down on Saudi Arabia. Their proxy wars with Iran are bleeding their coffers dry just as oil revenues have reached record lows, their oppressed population is restless, they can’t meet the demands of their gluttonous elites, and they’re facing a nationwide environmental disaster that could grind everything to a halt.

In short, one of America’s strongest allies in the Middle East and the linchpin of the petrodollar, is facing a complete collapse, and it may happen within a decade. This could lead to chaos in the Middle East, and would have huge ramifications for the global economy. And at the end of the day, there really isn’t anything that can be done to stop it.


By Joshua Krause of The Daily Sheeple Joshua Krause is a reporter, writer and researcher at The Daily Sheeple. He was born and raised in the Bay Area and is a freelance writer and author. You can follow Joshua’s reports atFacebook or on his personal Twitter. Joshua’s website is Strange Danger.


SOURCES:
The Daily Sheeple
Submitted by SyrianPatriots 
War Press Info Network at:
https://syrianfreepress.wordpress.com/2016/03/10/saudi-collapse/
~

The Total Collapse of Saudi Dictatorship is Fast Approaching

saudi tank wikimedia

The Total Collapse of Saudi Arabia is Fast Approaching

| |

To the casual observer, Saudi Arabia might currently seem like an emboldened nation that is asserting itself. They’ve been challenging Iran, fighting rebels in Yemen, threatening to invade Syria, and if some rumors are to be believed, they are currently trying to attain nuclear missiles from Pakistan. However, these aren’t the actions of a stable nation that is asserting its dominance in the region. These are the flailing death throes of a nation that is struggling to hang on.

Ever since global oil prices started to plummet, Saudi Arabia just hasn’t been the same. That’s no surprise. Since prices fell, other oil rich nations have been hurting as well. Russia’s economy has been on the ropes, Canada is plummeting into a recession, and Venezuela is on the verge of total collapse. However, there probably isn’t any nation on Earth that is more reliant on oil than Saudi Arabia. If anyone is going to be destroyed by low oil prices, it’s the Saudi’s.

The crux of the matter is that this country is running out of money. It doesn’t look like it at first glance. They’ve only recently started to dip into their enormous savings, and their debt to GDP ratio is remarkably low. However, they are hemorrhaging money at an alarming rate. They’ve been flooding the market with cheap oil to drown out their competition (a dangerous gambit for a government that receives 80% of its revenue from oil) , and they’ve been fighting several expensive proxy wars with Iran, which are not going so well. The situation is so dire that the IMF expects them to run out of money within 5 years.

For most countries this wouldn’t be such a big deal. They would just go into debt and kick the can down the road until their financial system crumbled after many years. But the Saudi’s can’t do that. Their government and their society is structured in such a way that they can’t maintain anything with debt. The reason why is that they are not a traditional nation-state.

In fact, Saudi Arabia is no state at all. There are two ways to describe it: as a political enterprise with a clever but ultimately unsustainable business model, or so corrupt as to resemble in its functioning a vertically and horizontally integrated criminal organization. Either way, it can’t last. It’s past time U.S.decision-makers began planning for the collapse of the Saudi kingdom.

In recent conversations with military and other government personnel, we were startled at how startled they seemed at this prospect. Here’s the analysis they should be working through.

Understood one way, the Saudi king is CEO of a family business that converts oil into payoffs that buy political loyalty. They take two forms: cash handouts or commercial concessions for the increasingly numerous scions of the royal clan, and a modicum of public goods and employment opportunities for commoners.

Essentially, Saudi Arabia runs on institutionalized bribery. They need cold hard cash to keep the population in line, to keep the ever-growing royal family rich and happy, and to make sure everyone is doing their job. It’s not like what you see in most Western nations, where much of the population has a misplaced sense of civic duty. This system needs cash, and can’t survive on IOUs.

The elites in this society demand a life of perpetual luxury, and government handouts are the only thing keeping the oppressed masses from rebelling. Once they run out of money, everything will fall apart from the bottom up.

But the financial situation isn’t the only problem with the Saudi kingdom. Much of their budget is being burned up to fight their war in Yemen, which they are losing badly. Dozens of their Blackwater Mercenaries were killed in a missile attack last month, the Yemeni rebels captured one of their military bases two weeks ago (within Saudi territory no less), and last week Yemeni forces managed to capture over a hundred Saudi soldiers.

This is a regime that rules with fear and oppression. How can they do that when their own military can’t beat an insurgency in their own backyard. When the handouts and bribes grind to a halt, and their population is sick and tired of being dominated by the Saudi family, how long do you suppose it will take for them to rebel?

And on top of all that, Saudi Arabia is faced with a severe water crisis. Much like California, they’re heavily reliant on underground aquifers that aren’t renewable, and they use more water per person than many Western nations (in fact, twice as much as the average person in the EU). They could run out of water in as little as 13 years. This has led the Saudi regime to start taxing water for the first time, partly due to the water crisis, and partly due to falling oil revenues.

As you can see, there are a lot of existential threats bearing down on Saudi Arabia. Their proxy wars with Iran are bleeding their coffers dry just as oil revenues have reached record lows, their oppressed population is restless, they can’t meet the demands of their gluttonous elites, and they’re facing a nationwide environmental disaster that could grind everything to a halt.

In short, one of America’s strongest allies in the Middle East and the linchpin of the petrodollar, is facing a complete collapse, and it may happen within a decade. This could lead to chaos in the Middle East, and would have huge ramifications for the global economy. And at the end of the day, there really isn’t anything that can be done to stop it.

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