Iran Busts CIA Spy Network of 17 Members – Intelligence Ministry

By Staff, Agencies

Iran’s Intelligence Ministry announced identifying and destroying an integrated network of operatives serving the US Central Intelligence Agency [CIA] inside the country.

The Ministry’s director-general for counterintelligence said Monday that Iran captured 17 professional spies working on behalf of CIA throughout last year and some of those arrested had been handed death sentences, according to the Fars news agency.

“The identified spies were employed in sensitive and vital private sector centers in the economic, nuclear, infrastructural, military and cyber areas… where they collected classified information,” the unnamed official said in a statement.

The official said that the suspects were operating in key organizations and institutions mainly in the private sector.

He noted that the CIA had recruited the individuals by mainly contacting them over the internet. Other tactics included issuing or renewing US visas, hiring Iranian specialists, providing necessary equipment and access to certain participants in scientific events abroad, sending emails and messaging through social.

Last month, Iran’s Intelligence Ministry said it had “penetrated the US safe system in cyberspace.” which the CIA has used for maintaining communication with the spies.

The discovery of the network was first announced by the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, who said then that the “cyber-espionage” network had been operating in countries other than Iran that it had been discovered “a while ago.”

“We provided the information on the exposed network to some other allied countries in which it had been operating, which resulted in the exposing and dismantling of the US intelligence officers network and arrest and conviction of some CIA agents in different countries,” Shamkhani said in June.

 

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As Trump Backs Down, the Pips Squeak

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FEATURED STORY

As Trump Backs Down, the Pips Squeak

Tom Luongo July 21, 2019

Last week it was all fire and brimstone. The US was threatening more sanctions on Iran, the Brits were seizing oil tankers and Iran was violating the JCPOA.

This week things look different all of a sudden. An oil tanker goes dark while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the story fails to get any real traction and the US allows Iranian Foreign Minister, recently sanctioned, to do his job at the United Nations.

Trump then holds a cabinet meeting where he reiterates that

“We’re not looking for regime change. We want them out of Yemen.”

I thought National Security Advisor John Bolton said the US would apply pressure until “the pips squeak.”

Where the pips are squeaking is on the Arabian Peninsula, not across the Persian Gulf in Bandar Abbas. Specifically, I’m talking about the United Arab Emirates. The UAE sent a delegation to Tehran recently that coincided with its partial withdrawal of troops from Yemen.

That meeting, according to Elijah Magnier, focused on Emirates realizing they are in the middle of this conflict, up to their skyscrapers.

“The UAE would like to avoid seeing their country transformed into a battlefield between the US and Iran in case of war, particularly if Trump is re-elected. The Emirates officials noted that the US did not respond to Iran’s retaliation in the Gulf and in particularly when the US drone was downed. This indicates that Iran is prepared for confrontation and will implement its explicit menace, to hit any country from which the US carries out their attacks on Iran. We want to be out of all this”, an Emirates official told his Iranian counterpart in Tehran.

Iran promised to talk to the Yemeni officials to avoid hitting targets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi as long as the UAE pulls out its forces from the Yemen and stops this useless war. Saudi Crown Prime Mohammad Bin Salman is finding himself without his main Emirates ally, caught in a war that is unwinnable for the Saudi regime. The Yemeni Houthis have taken the initiative, hitting several Saudi strategic targets. Saudi Arabia has no realistic objectives and seems to have lost the appetite to continue the war in Yemen.

So, with the Houthis successfully striking major targets inside Saudi Arabia and the UAE abruptly pulling forces out, the war in Yemen has reached a critical juncture. Remember, the Republican-controlled Senate approved a bill withdrawing support for the war back in March, which the White House had to veto in support of its fading hopes for its Israeli/Palestinian deal pushed by Jared Kushner.

But things have changed significantly since then as that deal has been indefinitely postponed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a second election this fall after he failed to secure a stable coalition.

After that there was the failed economic conference in Bahrainin June where Kushner revealed the economic part of the plan to a half-empty room where only the backers of the plan showed any real support.

And that’s the important part of this story, because it was Kushner’s plan which was the impetus for all of this insane anti-Iran belligerence in the first place. Uniting the Gulf states around a security pact leveraging the U.S/Israeli/Saudi alliance was part of what was supposed to pressure the Palestinians to the bargaining table.

By placing maximum economic sanctions on both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran while continuing to foment chaos in Syria was supposed to force Israel’s enemies to fold under the pressure which would, in turn, see the Palestinians surrender to the will of Kushner and Bibi.

The problem is, it didn’t work. And now Trump is left holding the bag on this idiotic policy which culminated in an obvious provocation when Iran shot down a $220 million Global Hawk surveillance drone, nearly sparking a wider war.

But what it did was expose the US and not Iran as the cause of the current problems.

Since then Trump finally had to stand up and be the grown-up in the room, such as he is, and put an end to this madness.

The UAE understood the potential for Iran’s asymmetric response to US belligerence. The Saudis cannot win the war in Yemen that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman began. The fallout from this war has been to push Qatar out of the orbit of the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council, cutting deals with Iran over developing the massive North Pars gas field and pipelines to Europe.

And now the UAE has realized it is facing an existential threat to its future in any confrontation between Iran and the US

What’s telling is that Trump is making Yemen the issue to negotiate down rather than Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Because it was never about the nuclear program. It was always about Iran’s ballistic missile program.

And Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would have us believe that for the first time Iran’s missile program is on the negotiating table. I have no idea if that’s actually true, but it’s a dead giveaway that it’s what the US is after.

The main reason why Trump and Netanyahu are so angry about the JCPOA is the mutual outsourcing of the nuclear ballistic missile program by Iran and North Korea. North Korea was working on the warhead while Iran worked on the ballistic missile.

Trump tweeted about this nearly two years ago, confirming this link. I wrote about it when he did this.  Nearly everything I said about North Korea in the blog post is now applicable to Iran. This was why he hated the JCPOA, it didn’t actually stop the development of Iran and North Korea into nuclear states.

But tearing up the deal was the wrong approach to solving the problem. Stop pouring hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons to the region, as Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif pointed out recently, is the problem. By doing this he took both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping off his side of the table.

Now he stands isolated with only the provocateurs – Israel, the U.K., Saudi Arabia – trying to goad him forward into doing something he doesn’t want to do. And all of those provocations that have occurred in the past month have failed to move either Trump or the Iranians. They’ve learned patience, possibly from Putin. Call it geopolitical rope-a-dope, if you will.

I said last month that the key to solving Iran’s nuclear ambitions was solving the relationship with North Korea. Trump, smartly, went there, doing what only he could do, talk with DPRK Chairman Kim Jong-Un and reiterate his sincere desire to end proliferation of nuclear weapons.

He can get Iran to the table but he’s going to have to give up something. So, now framing the negotiations with Iran around their demands we stop arming the Saudis is politically feasible.

Trump can’t, at this point, back down directly with Iran. Yemen is deeply unpopular here and ending our support of it would be a boon to Trump politically. Trading that for some sanctions relief would be a good first step to solving the mess he’s in and build some trust.

Firing John Bolton, which looks more likely every day, would be another.

He’s already turning a blind eye to Iranian exports to China, and presumably, other places. I think the Brits are acting independently trying to create havoc and burnish Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt’s resume as Prime Minister against Boris Johnson. That’s why they hijacked the oil tanker.

But all the little distractions are nothing but poison pills to keep from discussing the real issues. Trump just cut through all that. So did Iran. Let’s hope they stay focused.

IRGC says captures British oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz

Press Tv

1

Fri Jul 19, 2019 05:59PM

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has said that it has captured a British oil tanker for breaching international maritime law while crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

The IRGC’s Public Relations Department said in a statement on Friday that the vessel named “Stena Impero” had been confiscated “at the request of Hormozgan Ports and Maritime Organization when passing through the Strait of Hormuz, for failing to respect international maritime rules.”

The oil tanker was transferred to the coast to undergo the required legal proceedings, the statement added.

(This item is being updated.)

IRGC Navy Seizes British Tanker in Persian Gulf

IRGC Navy Seizes British Tanker in Persian Gulf

 

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) announced in a statement issued on Friday evening that its naval forces have seized British tanker ship, ‘Stena Impero’, for violating maritime rules and regulations in the Persian Gulf.

“UK tanker ship, Stena Impero, has been detained by the vessels unit of the IRGC Navy’s First Naval Zone at the request of the Ports and Maritime Organization’s office of Hormuzgan province for disregarding international maritime rules and regulations as it was passing through the Strait of Hormuz this afternoon,” the statement by the IRGCN public relations said.

The statement said the ship has been escorted to the Iranian coastal waters in Hormuzgan province and its control has been transferred to the Ports and Maritime Organization for further legal procedures and investigations.

A statement by Stena Impero shipping firm said there are 23 crew onboard the UK ship, adding that there has been no report on any harm or injury to the crew members since the vessel came under detention by the Iranian forces.

Media reports said the tanker was heading to Saudi Arabia’s port of Al-Jobail from the UAE port of Fujairah when it was detained by the IRGC.

Director-General of the Ports and Maritime Organization’s office in Hurmuzgan province said he filed a request for the seizure of the British tanker by the IRGCN after reports on its risky moves that made the vessel prone to accident.

Meantime, sources told FNA that “the British ship had switched off its tracking systems in violation of maritime rules and regulations and was making an entry from the exit point of the Strait of Hormuz in the South, disregarding the established procedures that require all entries be made through the Northern pass.

In early July, British marines and Gibraltar police seized an Iranian tanker off the Southern coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Gibraltar’s Chief Minister Fabian Picardo claimed that the ship was transporting crude oil to Syria “in violation” of the EU sanctions placed on Damascus. Washington has applauded the move, hailing it as a sign that Europe is on board with the US’ unilateral sanctions against Iran.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the “illegal move” of London and described it as “tantamount to piracy”. Tehran accused the UK of doing Washington’s bidding and helping the US attempt to stifle the Islamic Republic’s oil exports, rejecting London’s claim that the supertanker was carrying crude for Syria.

The attorney general announced on Friday that Gibraltar’s supreme court has ruled that the Iranian tanker seized by Britain’s Royal Marines can be detained for 30 more days. The court’s decision came a day after a senior Gibraltar’s official described as “constructive” talks with Iran, raising hopes that the tanker would be released imminently.

Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has slammed Britain’s illegal seizure of the oil tanker, warning London of a pending response to the seizure of the supertanker that he referred to as a case of “piracy”.

“They commit crimes and make it appear legal. The Islamic Republic and devout agents of the system will not leave such vicious acts without a response and they will respond in a proper opportunity and place,” Ayatollah Khamenei stressed.

On Thursday, naval forces of the IRGC seized a foreign ship smuggling fuel in the Persian Gulf, according to a statement by the public relations office of the IRGC Navy’s first zone. The foreign vessel was smuggling a million liters of fuel from Iran and was seized in Iranian waters South of Lark island.

Yet, a statement issued by the IRGC on Thursday denied that any other foreign ship had been seized during the last week as claimed by the western media.

The statement reiterated that the ship had been seized for “smuggling fuel from Iran”, and no other reason.

The recent moves by foreign powers in the Middle East such as US sanctions on Tehran’s oil, UK seizure of Iranian supertanker, as well as, “sabotage operations” on oil ships have intensified the turmoil in the region and the turmoil in the international energy market, affecting global crude prices in recent months.

 

IRAN SEIZES BRITISH TANKER IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ

South Front

19.07.2019

Iran Seizes British Tanker In Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) announced in the late hours of July 19 that its naval units had captured a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Guards said in a press release that the tanker, Stena Impero, was seized for breaching international maritime law while crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

حرس الثورة يعلن أن الناقلة البريطانية لم تراع قوانين الملاحة البحرية

Stena Impero’s operator Clyde-based Northern Marine Group (NMG) confirmed in an offical statement that the tanker was taken over by force. The group said that 23 seafarers were aboard the tanker when it was captured.

“At approximately 1600 BST on 19th July UK registered vessel Stena Impero (built 2018, 49,683 DWT) was approached by unidentified small crafts and a helicopter during transit of the Strait of Hormuz while the vessel was in international waters. We are presently unable to contact the vessel which is now heading north towards Iran,” the NMG’s statement reads.

In its first response to the Iranian move, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said that it is looking for further information on the incident.

Stena Impero was likely captured by the IRGC as a response to the UK seizure of Iran’s supertanker, Grace 1, off the shores of Gibraltar, earlier this month. Senior Iranian officials, including the country’s Supreme Leader, had warned the UK that Iran will not tolerate such moves.

More on this topic:

Enemy Miscalculation to Turn Iran’s Defensive Strategy into Offensive: IRGC

Source: Press TV

Chief Commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Hossein Salami
Chief Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Hossein Salami

The chief commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has warned enemies against the possibility of a turn in the country’s military strategy from the current defensive strategy toward an offensive one.

“As far as the strategy is concerned, we act defensively, meaning that we will not be the ones to start or initiate any war,” Major General Hossein Salami said during an inspection of the level of preparedness of the country’s defensive forces in an area near the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf on Thursday.

The area, known as Naze’at comprises four islands in the Persian Gulf, which are of great importance to the country’s efforts to maintain the security of the strategic waterway.

“The situation is, however, completely opposite when it comes to [the country’s] tactical attitude, and should enemies commit any miscalculation, our defensive strategy would turn into an offensive one,” Salami added, noting the offensive transition would involve the Islamic Republic’s entire defensive capacities.

Salami also underlined the region’s significance for the country and the entire global economy, adding, “Using the pretext of the region’s sensitivity to enable extra-regional military presence here would only stoke insecurity and compromise standing security arrangements in the region.”

Salami asserted that the Islamic Republic enjoys perfect command over the waters lying in the northern part of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. The country maintains the command as means of defending its territorial integrity, naval superiority, and aerial security, he added.

“On behalf of the Iranian nation, we engage in defensive development in all areas,” he stated.

The United States has resorted to significant military buildup in the region, which has seen it sending over an aircraft carrier strike group, a bomber taskforce, an assault ship, and thousands of additional forces.

President Donald Trump and other US officials have, however, recurrently disowned any intention to engage in warfare with Iran, claiming that the American equipment and troops are actually meant to prevent one.

Elsewhere in his remarks, Salami cautioned enemy think tanks against plotting any adventurism or mischief against the Iranian nation.

He finally hailed the “infallible readiness” of the Iranian Armed Forces, especially the IRGC, for engaging in all-out defense of the country’s security and interests.

Related Stories

 

The story of Hezbollah anti-aircraft missile

Source

July 13, 2019

TEHRAN –Secretary-General of Hezbollah Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah revealed two strategic surprises for the military and intelligence services of the West, especially the Zionists in the anniversary of 33-day Israeli war.

July 12 marked the 13th anniversary of the beginning of the 33-day Israeli regime’s war on Lebanon that resistance group, Hezbollah, managed to defeat the Zionist enemy by preventing it from achieving any of its targets. Secretary-General of Hezbollah Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah delivered a speech on the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. There are notable points in his speech which are extremely impressive in terms of achieving a military transformation in Hezbollah as follow:

-The resistance today is more powerful than before. Capabilities of Radwan Force and Al-Abbas Brigades will be shown more in future wars.

-It is not comparable to 13 years ago in the field of advanced weapons as well as missiles with pinpoint accuracy in both quality and quantity.

-Increasing intelligence superiority not only on the land but also in sea and air fields over the regime.

-The most strategic area of Israel; the ‘Israeli’ coast is under the resistance’s fire, including the 70-km long ‘Israeli’ coast starting from Netanya and ending by Ashdod which includes the most strategic Israeli sites (Ben Gurion airport, arms depots, petrochemical plants, Tel Aviv and Ashdod ports). Any possible war will result in vast destruction of occupied lands which are considered as heart of the regime.

-The ability to seize and recapture areas of occupied Palestine, including the important area of  Galilee.

-Possibility of having an anti-aircraft missile is the most important issues of Hezbollah which is the strategic surprise for the military and intelligence services of the Zionists.

The main mission of the Zionist intelligence and military services during the Syrian war was to prevent transfer of missiles or, more importantly, advanced missile technology to Hezbollah. The Zionist has targeted any places or caravan which were likely to transfer missiles to Hezbollah during these years. Therefore, the first question for world’s intelligence and military services is now how advanced anti-aircraft missiles have been transmitted to Hezbollah?!

In recent years, Israel has been struggling to compensate for its military defeats by air strikes of its advanced aircrafts. In this regards, Nasrallah believes that the air force will not determine the war’s conclusion. In other words, Hezbollah has now been able to probably undermine the latest strategic military superiority of the Zionist regime.

But perhaps one of the most sophisticated messages from Nasrallah’s speeches is the response to Netanyahu’s recent threat of using advanced military aircraft such as the F35 to attack some of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Over the past years, the Zionist regime has repeatedly emphasized that it is able to target Iran’s nuclear facilities by using its own aircraft without U.S. support, like attacking some of the nuclear facilities of Syria in the past. It means that Nasrallah has transmitted this strategic message to the threat of Netanyahu’s air strike to Iran that Hezbollah would down the Israel’s aircraft if necessary. Israel’s aircraft cannot target any parts of Iran as Iran’s air force has downed the U.S. advanced drone last weeks.

Taking a Minute to Walk in Iran’s Shoes

Iran Feature photo

Feature photo | Mourners carry flag-draped caskets in a funeral procession for 150 soldiers whose remains were recently recovered. The soldiers were killed during the war with then-US-backed-Iraq in the 1980s, Tehran, Iran, June 27, 2019. Vahid Salemi | AP

If one can learn anything from the modern history of Iran, it’s that great powers will sell — and have sold — them out at a moment’s notice.

61mjZGKbAAL._UL1500_

Iran has seen its fair share of the damage imperialism has inflicted on the world — joint Russian and British control over Iran during the Qajar era, then the killing of one fifth of the Iranian population between 1917-19 (as documented in Barry Rubin’s The Middle East: A Guide to Politics, Economics, Society and Culture, p. 508) from famine brought on by the confiscating of foodstuff by occupying British forces that had violated Iran’s neutrality in World War I. This was followed in WWII by a coup that ousted Reza Shah, the then-king of Iran, also at a time when Iran had declared neutrality, in a British coup that put his son Mohammad Reza Shah on the throne of the kingdom. We need not mention the joint American-British coup, in which hundreds were killed, that toppled the popular Mosaddegh government because of its nationalization of the Iranian oil industry (which would have damaged American and British interests in Iranian oil).

The only time Iran saw an actual democratic movement succeed in giving power to the people that foreign powers were not able to abort was with the Islamic Revolution of 1979; and, even after that, the AmericansEuropeans, and even Arab countries of the Persian Gulf aided Saddam Hussein in a war he instigated against Iran — providing him with arms and chemical weapons, as well as intelligence.



A lesson in wariness

Taking these historical events (and many more instances) into account, it is no wonder that Iranians would be very wary of any moves made by the United States and other global powers, namely those with a colonial track record. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or Iran Nuclear Deal) could have very well marked a paradigm shift in relations with Iran, but instead, the Europeans did not abide by their commitments, and the Americans just up-and-left the agreement as soon as Trump got around to Iran. Not only that but, instead of abiding by their commitments, they’re trying to milk even more out of the deal — promising they’ll abide by their commitments if Iran offers more to an already done deal. What this means is they are being asked to add concessions in their ballistic missile program, much to the benefit of Arab Persian Gulf monarchies that are on a trend of increased militarization.

Trump's War On Iran. (Image: Carlos Latuff For MintPress News)

Credit | Carlos Latuff

Which brings us to the region’s latest round of tensions.

Given the already-stated facts, one has to understand, first and foremost, that Iran is dealing with a number of countries that have a history of falsifying facts, not standing by their agreements, and going into war in order to secure their own economic interests at the expense of other peoples. One must not forget the Indian famine in WWII, caused by food being exported from India to Britain, killing more than 20 million Indians, in reference to which Churchill said: “I hate Indians. They are a beastly people with a beastly religion. The famine was their own fault for breeding like rabbits.”

Living in such a flammable neighborhood — where the United States and its allies recently occupied its neighbors to the east and west and built military bases — and with such historical baggage, it’s not far-fetched that Iran, being the region’s most stable country, would rather rely on deterrence and defensive capabilities to secure itself than give concessions that could damage its security to powers that can hardly be trusted to keep their own word, as their own history suggests.

 

A wise decision

Iran made a wise decision in its downing of the RQ-4 drone. Usually, the shooting down of military surveillance drones does not lead to military escalation, though it does lead to an increase in tension. By doing so, Tehran was successful in warning any aggressor — be it the United States or any other country, for that matter — that it is not willing to compromise on matters of security or national pride (though the U.S. claims the drone was flying above international waters — 8000 miles away from U.S. soil — the debris has since been recovered by Iranian authorities in Iranian waters).

Iran US Drone

An Iranian general looks at debris from a U.S. military drone shot down by Iran’s air defense system, June 21, 2019. Meghdad Madadi | Tasnim via AP

The wisdom of this decision is that Iran delivered the intended message without causing any escalation — which doubtless would have been the outcome if it had downed a manned military plane that was also in its sites in the vicinity of the drone. It was a message that Trump had clearly received, and for which he expressed appreciation to Iranian authorities (although why he would bother to thank Iran if it was attacking a plane flying over “international waters” as he said is truly baffling).

In addition to that — although it had the legal right to shoot down the drone for flying over its airspace, which extends to 12 nautical miles from its borders — Iran also has the right to demand identification from any aircraft flying close to its territory. For more perspective, U.S. Air Defense Identification Zones extend 200 miles from the U.S. border and, as testified to by a former U.S. Air Force navigator, any unidentified drone flying that close to the U.S. border would most likely be shot down. The shooting down of this unidentified drone, even supposing the U.S.’s version of events were true, is perfectly warranted on Iran’s part, and does not allow the U.S. any measure of retaliation in “self-defense,” because no lives were lost in its downing.

Moreover, Iran clearly showed other countries what it was able to achieve independently through its reliance on its own capabilities. It downed the world’s leading military power’s aircraft for infringing on its airspace, and did so without hesitation because it sees itself as truly “sovereign.” Although the U.S. may threaten Iran with its military might and its presence in the region, Iran’s ballistic missile program has allowed it to turn that very strength into a weakness by having American bases, and 25,000 American troops, within targeting range.

A war with Iran would devastate the region. A war with Iran, Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and Ansarullah is in the interest of no one, and God only knows what other surprises Iran might have in store for conspiring Arab monarchies. The smart move would be to repair the JCPOA in order to avoid further escalation in the region.

Karim Sharara is a Lebanese PhD student who’s lived in Tehran since 2013 studying political science at the University of Tehran with a focus on Iranian affairs. 

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect MintPress News editorial policy.

الجولان بيضة قبّان المنطقة ومعركة الساعة

الجولان بيضة قبّان المنطقة ومعركة الساعة

يوليو 9, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– ربما يغيب عن أذهان الكثيرين أن جوهر الصراع الدائر منذ تحرير حلب من الجماعات المسلحة المعدومة من تركيا، وانطلاق قطار الدولة السورية بدعم روسي إيراني لاسترداد كامل الجغرافيا السورية، هو الصراع على مستقبل الجولان، بين رؤيتين أميركية وروسية رؤية أميركية تربط الاعتراف بعودة سورية ببقاء الجولان تحت السيطرة الإسرائيلية، وتعتبر أن عودة باقي الجغرافيا السورية باستثناء الجولان يجب أن يكفي لعودة الاستقرار لسورية. وعلى هذه الخلفية قامت واشنطن بخطوتين مهمتين، الأولى عرض مقايضة الانسحاب الأميركي من سورية بانسحاب إيران وقوى المقاومة، والثانية تأييد قرار إسرائيلي سابق بضم الجولان، بما يعنيه من إسقاط للضمانة الأميركية كشريك في اتفاق فك الاشتباك عام 1974 وما يعنيه من تنطر للقرارات الدولية الصادرة عن مجلس الأمن بإدانة قرار الضم، وإدانة قرارات الاستيطان، وتأكيد الهوية السورية للجولان المحتل.

– الرؤية الروسية كانت واضحة من لحظة التمسك باتفاقية فك الاشتباك كإطار للوضع على حدود الجولان ضمن مفهوم ارتباط الاتفاقية بالقرارات الدولية التي تنص صراحة على الانسحاب الإسرائيلي من الجولان، والضغط الروسي لتراجع أميركي وإسرائيلي أمام التقدم السوري نحو الجنوب قبل عامين. كان في هذا السياق، ومثله تجاهل عروض مقايضة الوجود الأميركي بوجود إيران وقوى المقاومة، ورفض الموافقة الأميركية على ضم الجولان، وصولاً لقناعة روسية بأن الحديث عن انسحاب جميع القوات غير السورية باستثناء روسيا يمكن أن يشمل إيران عندما يكون المطروح مقابله انسحاباً إسرائيلياً من الجولان، تقوم روسيا بعرضه مدخلاً للاستقرار في المنطقة في كل مناسبة وكل لقاء، وتبدي الاستعداد للبحث بالضمانات الأمنية لـ»إسرائيل» في حال قبول وضعه بنداً للبحث على الطاولة.

– مشروع صفقة القرن شكل الإطار الشامل للرؤية الأميركية وكانت روسيا تراه فاشلاً منذ أعلن الفلسطينيون إجماعهم على رفضه، وأعلنت التضامن معهم بمقاطعة مؤتمر المنامة. والرؤية الروسية لسياق تطور أوضاع سورية وامتداد سيطرة الدولة السورية على جغرافيتها لا يلحظ حاجة لوضع الوجود الإيراني على الطاولة لضمان انسحاب الأتراك والأميركيين. فسياق الرؤية الروسية يضمن مقايضتهما ببعضهما البعض، الأميركيون يفرجون عن مطالب الأمن التركي بإلغاء خطر الكيان الكردي، والأتراك يقايضون شراكتهم بالحل السياسي بالإفراج عن الجغرافيا السورية التي يحتلونها، والانسحاب التركي وإقلاع التسوية السياسية كفيلان بتسريع روزنامة الانسحاب الأميركي، والتجاذب الإيراني الأميركي مفيد للرؤية الروسية لأنه يضع الوجود الأميركي في سورية كواحد من الأهداف المعرضة لعمل عسكري في أي مناخ متوتر، بحيث يصير الانسحاب الأميركي من سورية ضمن مفهوم تسوية سياسية سورية مخرجاً يحفظ ماء الوجه، خصوصاً بربط الأميركي توقيعه الأخير على التسوية بإعادة الإعمار وليس بالانسحاب كما كان من قبل.

– الجولان في منظور «إسرائيل» وأمنها، مقنع للأميركيين الذين ليس بينهم وبين إيران ومعها قوى المقاومة من قضية تتقدم على قضية أمن «إسرائيل»، ليس باعتبارها خدمة لـ»إسرائيل» بل باعتبارها أهم عناوين القوة الأميركية في المنطقة والتخلي عن أسباب قوتها بمثابة إعلان هزيمة أميركية كاملة وخروج مهين من المنطقة الأهم في العالم، وسقوط لمكانة الدولة الأولى في صناعة السياسة والأمن عالمياً، لذلك تعرف «إسرائيل» أن الجولان ليس غزة ولا جنوب لبنان، وتعرف أن خروجها منه ولو بنقله لحماية دولية معزّزة بضمانات روسية أميركية لن يثني قوى المقاومة، التي تعرف خصوصية الجولان وموقف أهله كما تعرفهما «إسرائيل»، عن التمركز على ضفاف بحيرة طبريا في اليوم الثاني للانسحاب الإسرائيلي منه، وما يعنيه ذلك للأمن الاستراتيجي لـ»إسرائيل» الذي يبدأ وينتهي في الجليل ومستقبل الجليل يرتبط بمستقبل الجولان عضوياً ووجودياً.

– لا يمكن لأحد أن يطالب الدولة السورية بقبول تساكن هادئ على حدود الجولان مع قوات الاحتلال في ظل إعلان إسرائيلي مدعوم أميركياً بضمّ الجولان، وفي توقيت ما سيكون الجولان جبهة ساخنة وقد تنزلق للأشد سخونة ويصير السؤال عن كيفية تفادي نشوب الحرب، ولذلك يبقى الإيرانيون وتبقى قوى المقاومة وتريد سورية منهم أن يبقوا، ولا تمانع روسيا في بقائهم، لأن مصلحة سورية تكمن بطرح السؤال ومصلحة روسيا تتحقق بتقديم الجواب، وحتى ذلك الحين غير البعيد، تحاول «إسرائيل» القول إنها قادرة على فرض الابتعاد الإيراني بالقوة، وهي أمام مأزق كونها مضطرة للاختيار بين غارات توجع إيران وقوى المقاومة لتراهن عليها كبديل عن وضع الجولان على الطاولة. وفي هذه الحالة كل وجع يقابله وجع من نوعه وحجمه، وتبادل الألم قد يُخرج الأمور عن السيطرة، والعمل الذي يكتفي باللعبة الإعلامية دون التسبب بألم لا يمنع اقتراب لحظة يصير الوضع في الجولان هو الواجهة التي تتصدّر وضع سورية، وتبدأ السخونة ويصير السؤال مطروحاً عن كيفية منع الحرب ويطرح الروس الجواب.

– الجولان مفتاح المنطقة وبيضة القبان فيها، وجنوب سورية المتصل بالجولان ليس قضية طائفية يمكن أن يظنّ البعض، رغم فشل محاولاته السابقة، أن اللعبة فيها متداخلة بين لبنان وسورية وأنها لا تزال مفتوحة، ويمكن التجربة مرة أخرى ببعض التشجيع الخارجي والعبث الداخلي.

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