A news report surrounding a Russian offer to help resolve the long-standing electricity problem of Lebanon, which has devolved into a severe crisis in recent months.
The electricity problem in Lebanon is a highly politicised and controversial issue. This report suggests that it is the Americans and the local oil cartels within Lebanon that are blocking such a Russian offer from being accepted by the government in Beirut that would ease the suffering of the Lebanese people.
To whom it may concern, the Russian offer to resolve (Lebanon’s) electricity problem still stands, and these are its most recent developments.
Dr. Hassan Moqalled, Editor-in-Chief of the academic journal Al-E’mar w-al-Eqtisad (Construction and Economy):
In 7-10 days, a Russian company is going to come to Lebanon. It is one of the major (Russian) firms. It will come to present its offer in written form. This is no secret, I myself relayed the offer to relevant authorities (in Lebanon) – specifically to (Lebanon’s Energy) Minister – four days ago during my stay in Moscow. However, we’re going to give (the Minister) a complete and official presentation of the offer in 7-10 days.
Walid Fayad, Lebanon’s Energy Minister:
I’ll tell you whenever we receive a concrete offer (from Russia), so far there’s nothing concrete,
Reporter:
The intent is not to begin a pointless discussion or argument (with the Minister). In any case the Russian offer will become clearer and more concrete in a matter of days. In order to help clarify the contents of the (Russian) offer to officials in Lebanon, here is (an explanation).
Dr. Moqalled:
As for the offer, again, this is an offer to build an oil refinery (capable of refining) 150,000 barrels a day. During the first stage, a refinery can be built within a period of six months that can refine 20,000 barrels a day, while construction (of the refinery so that it can operate at full capacity) will take 12-18 months. The company will also supply Lebanon with its fuel needs until construction of the refinery is complete.
Reporter:
Clearly (this is a brilliant offer), as evidenced by the numbers. So how can an offer like this be refused, (an offer that will save) hundreds of millions of dollars (being spent) on temporary solutions that will only serve to increase power supply by a few hours (per day)? Who can block (such an offer)?
Dr. Moqalled:
Firstly, a large portion of officials (in Lebanon) believe that no solution can be accepted unless it comes from within the American orbit. Secondly, there is the sheer magnitude of the interests of the (local) oil cartels (at stake here], which is valued at hundreds of millions of dollars a year.
Energy Minister Walid Fayad:
Bring (the offer) to me next time. Bring it to me please.
Reporter:
It is on its way. The Russian offer will be presented yet again, just as the energy minister requested. This is an opportunity that only requires a decision…yet again.
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General His Eminence Sheikh Naim Qassem warned that “Any ‘Israeli’ attack on Lebanon will be met with a response from Hezbollah. Even if [Lebanon] is dragged to a war, we will face this war. Our weapons are loaded. If we need more [weapons] – we have our ways to rearm ourselves.”
In an interview with Al-Manar TV, Sheikh Qassem added: “We are waiting for the Lebanese government’s position on the indirect negotiations with [the ‘Israeli’ enemy] regarding the border issue, and when our turn arrives, we will do our duty.”
On another level, His Eminence announced: “If the companies and the central bank don’t take action to secure the country’s fuel needs, we will continue to bring in petroleum products. Hezbollah is ready to bring in diesel through official border crossings, but some in the country are afraid of the US and its sanctions.”
Sheikh Qassem also reiterated that “the Iranian diesel that entered Lebanon is a national commodity.” He revealed that “the quantity requested by the Lebanese merchants is about 25 million liters,” and he pointed out that “the balance of power is what brought Iranian diesel to Lebanon.”
“I want to ask those who talk about sovereignty how some parties and associations receive their American support.”
Meanwhile, His Eminence highlighted that “Hezbollah’s stock is very important at the level of the whole country, and the party has allies from all sides and within all groups.”
“Those who oppose Hezbollah have a problem with the party because it presented a model in resistance and succeeded in social and political work,” he added.
Sheikh Qassem further blamed “the absence of economic plans, corruption, and American sanctions for leading the country to this state.”
“The Iranian diesel that passed through Syria broke the most important siege on Lebanon in its entire history,” he said, noting that “Iranian diesel elicited an American decision approving the import of Egyptian gas to Lebanon through Syria.”
The Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General also stressed that “the confusion that occurred among the Americans and their scramble to find solutions was caused by Iranian diesel.”
He explained that “the nuclear negotiations, according to the directives from [Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence] Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei, are focused on the nuclear issue, and there are no other topics being discussed.”
“No negotiation took place regarding the issue of diesel or any other issue,” Sheikh Qassim stated. “Iran is helping Lebanon. It has never taken or asked for anything regarding this matter, and we are working for Lebanon and its people.”
In parallel, Sheikh Qassem asserted that “the Lebanese government is responsible for following up on any problems regarding the demarcation of the border.”
“We are waiting for the position of the Lebanese government on the issue of land and sea borders, and when it is our turn, we will do our duty.”
He pointed out that Hezbollah has always been committed to a “government being formed in order to start solving the country’s problems. […] The government can work on the issue of wage correction, addressing the fuel crisis, and curbing the dollar.”
“There is no objection to discussing with the IMF to reach common convictions, but we do not accept a ready-made recipe,” Sheikh Qassem continued.
“The government must develop a rescue plan, with one of its goals being to ease the burden on the people.”
With regard to the upcoming parliamentary elections, Sheikh Qassem voiced support for holding the parliamentary elections on time, adding that now with the formation of the government, the chances of holding the elections have become great.
He also unveiled that “for about eight months, our team has been working on the voter registration list and the distribution of districts, and we have put in place mechanisms to manage the elections. […] We have a structure and are working on it, and all our preparations are ready for the upcoming elections.”
Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivered a televised speech on Monday evening in which he tackled the latest political developments in Lebanon and the region.
At the beginning of his speech, Sayyed Nasrallah mourned the demise of prominent cleric Sayyed Mohammad Said al-Hakim in Iraq and the Head of the Supreme Shia Council in Lebanon Sheikh Abdul Amir Qabalan.
Moving to politics, Sayyed Nasrallah welcomed the formation of the Lebanese government that was announced on Friday and thanked all those who contributed to this achievement. His eminence didn’t forget to thank the caretaker prime minister Hassan Diab for his patience and patriotism and shouldering the responsibility over the period of caretaking the responsibilities of the already resigned government.
Highlighting that the current government’s priorities must be to save the nation from the heart of the downfall, carry out reforms, and take care of people’s livelihood, the resistance leader also voiced support for getting prepared to hold the municipal elections in the due time, and insisted on this issue.
Also on the governmental level, Sayyed Nasrallah called for finishing the ministerial statement as soon as possible for the government to gain confidence and drive the country out of the crises, urging everybody to stand in solidarity to grant the government the sufficient time before judging it.
Fuel bound to Lebanon
In key notes that were the reason for delivering Monday’s speech, Sayyed Nasrallah commented on the fuel shipments heading for Lebanon, explaining that Hezbollah had two choices regarding the destination where the ship docks, one was Lebanon and the other was Syria.
“Not to embarrass certain parties inside Lebanon, we decided to send the ship to Syria, which agreed on the matter of receiving the ship at one of its ports,” His Eminence stated, adding that Syria facilitated the movement in Baniyas Port for the storage and transferring the oil via the borders, and it also provided the cisterns in which the oil will be transferred.
Sayyed Nasrallah announced that the first ship carrying oil derivatives docked at the Syrian Port of Baniyas on Sunday evening, and today [Monday] unloading its cargo will be finished.
His Eminence further declared that transferring the oil derivatives to Beqaa area will start on Thursday and will be stored in certain reservoirs in Baalbek.
Lashing out at some bets that considered the promise to send the ships is just for media consumption, the resistance leader said the matter is left behind as the ship already arrived.
“The ‘Israeli’ was in trouble as the equation of deterrence was set, and it is the one that protected and allowed the arrival of the first ship,” Sayyed Nasrallah underlined, slamming those who betted on the Americans who failed to prevent the arrival of the ships despite the pressures and threats.
Additionally, His Eminence noted that betting on causing a trouble between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state has also collapsed thanks to the cooperation of the Syrian state: “All bets have collapsed and serious work has started although we expected setting new gamblings.”
The Hezbollah leader elaborated that the ship that has already arrived was carrying diesel oil, and the second ship will arrive at the Baniyas Port within a few days. Meanwhile, all administrative measures to send the third ship have been finished, and it will carry gas oil from Iran.
The fourth ship will later be carrying diesel oil to be used for heating as winter approaches, Sayyed Nasrallah made clear.
Elsewhere in comments on the same issue, the Hezbollah leader mentioned that based on the new government’s track and the given data, the destination of other ships would be decided.
Ruling out any intention of making profits, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that Hezbollah doesn’t seek trade or benefits from such ships, and it only aims at easing the suffering of the people. “The cargo that will arrive will be handed to all classes in Lebanon and is not limited to certain people,” His Eminence assured.
“We prepared a specific mechanism to deliver the oil derivatives, and we don’t aim at competing with others,” Sayyed Nasrallah said. “As per distribution, we adopted several divisions; the first of which is a donation that will be sent for a one-month supply for several sides.”
Those sides are public hospitals, nursing homes, orphanages, and centers that take care of people with special needs, Sayyed Nasrallah said. Additionally, water facilities and poor municipalities that has water wells, the civil firefighting centers, and the Lebanese Red Cross will be considered in this donation.
According to Sayyed Nasrallah, the second section that will receive those derivatives with appropriate prices – and there are priorities in this regard – are the private hospitals, serology laboratories, bakeries, and supermarkets, the food industry, and the agricultural equipment.
“We will sell the oil derivatives to the second section with prices that are lower than the costs at the market and there will be no oil that will be sold to individuals,” the resistance leader underscored.
In the phase of distribution, Hezbollah will depend in the first place on the Al-Amana company that is already blacklisted by the US and will deal with other companies later. The quantities will be distributed gradually to increase the amount of the beneficiaries and Hezbollah will focus mainly on the municipal unions, according to Sayyed Nasrallah.
His Eminence underscored that the important point for Hezbollah is that the material reaches the due recipients and not the black market. “We will shoulder a big amount of the costs against the greed and monopoly found in Lebanon.”
The resistance group will sell the material in prices that are less than their expenses as it doesn’t seek profits and will consider the losses as an aid from Hezbollah and Iran, its leader added.
The official price for selling the diesel oil will be either announced on Wednesday or on Thursday, and it will be less than the expenses. The material will be sold in exchange for the Lebanese pound and Hezbollah will not cost the country’s treasury anything, Sayyed Nasrallah emphasized.
“We aim at breaking the black market and the greed of the monopolists,” His Eminence reiterated.
Sayyed Nasrallah called on the new government to have the Lebanese Army as the guarantor in the process of delivering subsidies to the people.
In clear remarks highlighting Hezbollah’s capabilities, Sayyed Nasrallah said the party was able to get a convoy of ships at once with a media coverage, but it didn’t do so because it didn’t want to incite anybody and it is why Hezbollah achieved the matter with the minimum of media coverage.
“We don’t aim at any political employment of what happened,” His Eminence noted, affirming that among the blessings of what happened is that it opened new doors to Lebanon, especially after the direct US move to bring Egyptian gas through Jordan and Syria.
On the same level, Sayyed Nasrallah welcomed the official visit of the Lebanese delegation to Syria that was open and loving despite the critical situation.
Regarding the agreement of exchanging Iraqi fuel, Sayyed Nasrallah said it is supposed to arrive in Lebanon and thanked the Iraqi government for its efforts in this respect.
Also on the local level, Sayyed Nasrallah warned that the ration card might open another door to stealing, corruption, and politicization and called on the Lebanese to adhere to the law related to the ration card without any fraud: “Those who don’t meet the restrictions should leave the money offered by this card to other people in need.”
Gilboa Heroic Op
Hailing the operation of Gilboa Prison break, Sayyed Nasrallah described the “Tunnel of Freedom” Operation that was carried out by Palestinian heroes and resistance men as an event with major and very important significances.
“The “Tunnel of Freedom” Operation expresses the creativity of those heroes and it is a source of pride for every honorable man, it also expresses the Palestinian insistence on freedom,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.
Additionally, His Eminence ruled out that detaining four of the six escapees would undermine the success of the operation and underscored that the responsibility of protecting the two remaining escapees should be shouldered by all Palestinians.
July 13 Events: Gaza Liberation, Airport Massacre, Jabal al-Rafei Confrontation
As today marks the 16th anniversary of liberating the Gaza Strip, Sayyed Nasrallah commented on this “major victory the resistance has scored and it emphasized the benefit of the choice of resistance”, noting that liberating the Gaza Strip led to turning it into a main base for resistance and a source of hope for all the people of Palestine.
July 13 also marks the day when the Lebanese Army opened fire at the heads of people protesting against the Oslo Agreement, in comments on the tragic massacre, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that “We were very patient on this calamity to ward off sedition some sides wanted to create against the Lebanese Army.”
“Nobody in Dahiyeh has opened fire against the security forces although they were killing their sons and daughters. Our people blocked the road in front of the sedition that was desired and later, the blood of our martyrs blended with that of the army’s martyrs,” Sayyed Nasrallah underlined, in reference to the martyrdom of a group of resistance men, including his own son, martyr Hadi Hassan Nasrallah, and a group of Lebanese Army soldiers on July 13, 1997 while combatting an ‘Israeli’ commando unit in Jabal al-Rafei, south Lebanon.
“The blood of our resistance men blended with the blood of the Lebanese Army officers, which led to victory,” the Hezbollah leader.
US will always fail
Sayyed Nasrallah concluded his speech by assuring the Americans that they will fail in every conspiracy they hatch against Lebanon: “Just as your hopes and conspiracies failed, you will fail once again and the golden equation [of Army, People, and Resistance in Lebanon] will persist.
Lebanese economist Ziad Nasreddine comments on the potential ramifications of Hezbollah’s ongoing efforts to ship Iranian fuel to Lebanon, an effort announced by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah a day earlier.
Source: Al-Manar TV via Kalam Siyasi (YouTube) Date: August 20, 2021
Mr. Ziad, some say: what could (the ships) change, how could a ship or two coming from Iran constitute a solution for the stifling crisis we are experiencing, and the approach of (opening up to) the East must be done in a different way, and as long as it is not an exchange between a state and another (i.e. not from the side of Hezbollah as a party), the economic value of this action will be intangible, the Lebanese people who are experiencing the most severe siege won’t feel (any difference).
Ziad Nasreddine, Lebanese Economist:
Firstly, as for the issue of Iran, when we talk about the Islamic Republic of Iran, we are talking about a country that owns 10% of the world’s oil reserves, and 15% of the world’s gas reserves, and so it has a substantial surplus. Today (Iran) is providing power and electricity to Armenia, and a certain amount to Afghanistan, and a certain amount to Iraq and Pakistan as well. Therefore, there are many countries whose economies are tied to Iran and can deal with it.
Now when we talk about the internal affairs of Lebanon, today we can actually say that we have took a first step towards the East, and this first step is a fruitful step; it is not a matter of a ship or two, it is a matter of a strategic decision (concerning) the economic (affairs of Lebanon). Today, there is a real conflict between the East and West. The main question is ‘who needs the other, the East or the West?’. Today, the East has promising economies and great capabilities, and all the states surrounding (this geopolitical region) are allowed to deal with it and make strategic agreements, except for Lebanon.
The question today is, about a month ago, Saudi Arabia headed towards the East, specifically to China, and signed strategic agreements that might reach $90 billion, the UAE signed strategic deals with China, Jordan is also about to make agreements, and even the Israeli enemy is (doing so), yet (we are made to believe that) restrictions only (apply) to Lebanon?! Therefore, the fundamental and highly important depth of any economic rescue (project) for Lebanon must start, and will start, from Syria, and reach the depth of Asia and Iran.
Iran today plays a central role, today there are 14 states who have requested to get fuel and gas from Iran, so, we have entered a new phase. The fear (of US allies in Lebanon) today is not because of the diesel oil and gasoline coming to Lebanon, the fear is tied to this first step which forms a starting point for (the implementation of) major reforms related to the issue of electricity. The way it was accepted today – and it will be accepted by the Lebanese public, they will accept that we need diesel and gasoline, and this state (i.e. Iran) provided us (with those needs).
Tomorrow, we might return to (pre-existing) Iranian offers for the building of (power) plants in Lebanon as well, plants powered by gas. Let us talk in numbers: today we have, since the November (2019) crisis till the present day, spent $15 billion, between covering (government) subsidies and (taking into account) money that came in (to Lebanon) and money (that was) smuggled (abroad). This is while we actually only need $1 billion to build (power) plants and get rid of the entire (country’s) electricity (shortage) crisis! We spend $15 billion for (government) subsidies and to smuggle money abroad and many other things, yet we do not spend $1 billion to end (Lebanon’s) electricity problem!
We pay $3.5 billion yearly because we do not have electricity run on gas, nor have we built electricity plants for producing power. Today, this is the main problem, through which they (i.e. the US) were able (to harm Lebanon) via the electricity problem, (as) we had tied diesel oil to all our production sectors and (enabled a) a siege (to be imposed) on Lebanon. Lebanon was exposed to…what happened today (i.e. Nasrallah’s announcement) is that (a step was taken) to confront the economic siege, Lebanon was being exposed to an economic invasion just through (the exploitation) of diesel and gasoline. Therefore, all the sectors, during the months of September and October (2021)…there were plans in place to collapse Lebanon’s phone and internet (networks), (and plans were in place) to prevent the new academic year from starting (on time)…
All of this is because everything is tied to diesel oil (for everyday operation), hospitals are tied to diesel oil, bakeries are tied to diesel oil, schools, telecommunications, internet, and all these things today (depend on diesel oil). This crisis was expected to continue until we fall into a greater crisis after September and October. What is happening today is that we are carrying out an actual rescue of the (Lebanese) economy, we are saying that we want to put an economic plan on the table and consider it seriously, and that we (as a country) must not be a part of the projects of others anymore.
A report by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council [SNSC] said the fuel shipments sent by Tehran to help the Lebanese people, as announced earlier on Thursday by Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, have been paid for in advance by a group of Lebanon’s Shia businesspeople.
“The Iranian fuel shipments which Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah mentioned today have been all purchased by a group of Shia Lebanese businesspeople, and they are considered their property from the moment of loading,” the report said on Thursday.
The Twitter account of Nournews, which is close to the council, also said the Iranian fuel shipments, in contrast to speculations and rumors fomented by hostile news networks, are “neither a gift nor the Lebanese government has paid for them.”
It added that the powerful measures taken by Iran and Hezbollah to shatter the economic embargo imposed on the Lebanese people, has seriously angered the enemies of the Axis of Resistance, who want to cast doubts on this issue by distorting relevant facts.
The report came hours after Sayyed Nasrallah said earlier on Thursday that the first vessel carrying Iranian fuel would set sail for Lebanon within hours, warning the Zionist entity and the United States that the resistance group would regard the ships carrying Iranian fuel as part of the “Lebanese soil.”
The ship would be carrying diesel since it is a top priority for the Lebanese people’s livelihoods, Sayyed Nasrallah said, promising that it would be followed by other ships carrying more fuel.
Sayyed Nasrallah had already voiced willingness on a number of occasions to import Iran’s oil to counter Lebanon’s dire fuel shortage, in case the government fails to deal with the crisis.
On Sunday, he asserted that Hezbollah would “definitely” import fuel from Iran, and would do so “in broad daylight, not at night.”
The small Mediterranean country has, since 2019, been paralyzed by a major financial crisis, which has cut the value of its currency by more than 90 percent, eliminated jobs, and made banks freeze accounts.
Nasrallah’s Thursday comments come as tensions run high between ‘Israel’ and Iran in the aftermath of an alleged attack against the ‘Israeli’-managed Mercer Street tanker off Oman in July, after which Israel, the US and Britain were quick to blame Iran and threatened a “response.” Tehran, however, rejected the accusation as “baseless” and “childish.”
Lebanon is under unprecedented economic and social pressure, paying the price for Hezbollah’s military capability that causes a threat to “Israel”.
Hezbollah cannot provide and has no intention of replacing the services provided by the state.
Lebanon is under unprecedented economic and social pressure, paying the price for Hezbollah’s military capability that causes a threat to “Israel”. The options offered by those (US, EU and “Israel”) effectively participating in cornering Lebanon -notwithstanding decades of domestic corruption and mismanagement – are limited to two: either disarm Hezbollah or push Lebanon toward a failed state and civil war. However, the “Axis of the Resistance” has other options: Iran has responded to the request of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayed Hassan Nasrallah by regularly sending to Lebanon food supplies and medicine. It is now sending oil tankers, which are expected to reach the country in the coming weeks via the Syrian port of Tartous. Iran is rushing to support one of its strongest allies in the “Axis of the Resistance”, Hezbollah, which is suffering severe domestic pressure, as are the entire Resistance Axis members in their respective countries. Hezbollah’s supporters of all persuasions are affected by the acute socio-economic crisis. But will Hezbollah succeed in overcoming the inevitable result of the current long-term crisis? How serious are the challenges?
In one of his private meetings, Sayed Nasrallah said: “Israel considered that Hezbollah’s military capability constituted a “vexing danger” at the first years of its existence. The level of danger moved up to “challenge” in 2000 when “Israel” withdrew from Lebanon, to the “serious menace” level after the 2006 war, and to “existential danger” after the wars in Syria and Iraq.”
In line with what the Secretary-General of Hezbollah believes, it is common knowledge that “Israel” possesses nuclear weapons. Therefore, no other power in the Middle East can be considered an “existential threat” to “Israel”. However, according to the Israeli military leadership, Hezbollah possesses accurate missiles carrying hundreds of kilograms of explosives each. Thus, Hezbollah needs only ten missiles – not hundreds – to hit 6 electric stations and 4 water desalination plants over the entire geography to render life impossible for a vast number of Israelis. The Israeli leadership stated that there is no need to count the precision missiles that could hit any oil platform, ship or harbour and destroy any airport control tower in any future war.
Consequently, there will be not many Israelis willing to stay, and it is conceivable to believe that a considerable number of Israelis would leave. This scenario constitutes an existential threat to “Israel”, indeed. In this case, as the military command says, “Israel” will never be able to coexist with such an existential threat looming over its head generated from the other side of the Lebanese border. Hezbollah possesses hundreds of precision missiles spread over a wide area in Lebanon, Syria, and mainly along the fortified eastern mountainside that offer ideal protection for these missiles. So what are “Israel’s” options?
Following the failure to subdue Hezbollah in 2006 in the 3rd war, the victory of the “Axis of Resistance” in the Syrian conflict, the prevention of the division of Iraq and the fall of Yemen under Saudi Arabia’s control, the area of influence of the Resistance Axis expanded, as well as its theatre of operations. Consequently, the danger to “Israel”, to the US’s goals and hegemony in West Asia, significantly increased.
The nuclear dossier is not that far away from the threat the “Axis of the Resistance” is confronted with. By increasing its nuclear capability, Iran forced President Joe Biden to put the nuclear negotiation at the top of its agenda during (former) President Hassan Rouhani’s mandate. Whatever has been said about the possibility of future progress in the nuclear talks in Vienna, lifting sanctions on Iran – while Iraq is labouring under heavy financial debt, Syria is subjected to a severe economic blockade, and Lebanon faces a becoming degraded state -seems unrealistic to the US.
To the west and “Israel”, releasing Iran’s frozen funds – which exceed $110 billion – at a time of maximum financial pressure and heavy sanctions, is not logical. Moreover, allowing Iran to sell and export its oil and lifting the maximum pressure means that all the previous US efforts to curb Iran’s will and progress are due to fail just when the results of these sanctions are turning in favour of the US in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Consequently, maintaining economic pressure on the “Axis of Resistance” has become a US necessity and strategy. With this in mind, the US failed to comply with the nuclear agreement, to improve the leverage of the US negotiator and impose its conditions over Iran to include, above all, its relationship with its allies and the maintenance of hundreds of sanctions in place.
With the arrival of President Ibrahim Raisi to power and his plans to give little time for the nuclear negotiation, the US sees itself faced with two very bitter choices: either allowing Iran to become a nuclear power or removing all sanctions so as to persuade Iran to delay its entire nuclear capability. Both decisions are impossible choices and inconvenient for the US administration. Thus, the US needs to hit Iran’s allies without negotiating with Tehran, because it refuses to include it – as well as Iran’s missile program – in any nuclear talks.
Suppose the maximum pressure on Lebanon fails to weaken Hezbollah. In that case, Washington needs to evaluate future steps to choose between the nuclear threat or the “Axis of the Resistance” threat to “Israel”. And if the US opts for the 2015 nuclear agreement –which is unlikely – then “the Axis of Resistance” will experience a strong revival, recovering from the extreme US pressure. Whatever America’s choice is, it has become more than evident that Iran will eventually become a nuclear power and offer more than adequate support to its allies to keep them strong enough to face whatever challenges.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah cannot provide and has no intention of replacing the services provided by the state. Nevertheless, it is involved in the food supply through “al-Sajjad” cards delivered to families needing to buy food at a sharply reduced price, which raised the number from 150 000 to 200 000. It is supporting thousands of families who have reached the level of extreme poverty. Moreover, Hezbollah brought medication from Iran (more than 500 types) to cover some of the country’s needs when pharmacies are closing their doors and lacking essential medical supplies.
Furthermore, in the coming weeks, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have agreed on delivering Iranian oil to Lebanon. Hezbollah will receive the gasoline from the supply to its forces and for covering its daily movements. Hospitals are at the top of the list of those expected to receive the Iranian oil distributed by Hezbollah to prevent their shutting down. Many hospitals closed more than half of their departments. Other medical facilities transferred their patients to hospitals that still have fuel to generate electricity for the next few days. In various parts of Lebanon, hospitals are asking many patients to leave due to the lack of diesel fuel for electricity. The American University of Beirut Medical Centre stopped ventilators and other lifesaving medical devices for the lack of fuel oil.
Also, Hezbollah is expected to deliver Iranian oil to the owners of tens of thousands of private electric generators. The lack of electricity in the country boosted the presence of thousands of privately-owned generators who, for decades, offer their paid services to compensate for the lack of electricity. These are expected to benefit from the oil delivered by Hezbollah to secure electric power supply for people. The shortage of diesel fuel for the owners of generators reached a critical degree in the current hot summer, raising the level of discontent among the population.
Also, diesel fuel will be provided to some municipalities to secure waste removal from the streets for fear of the spread of disease. Al-Amanah Company is also expected to distribute the Iranian oil and diesel to dozens of stations approved by it and other local gasoline stations spread throughout the Lebanese territory.
But Hezbollah will not satisfy everyone in the country and is not able to prevent internal deterioration within the Shia society (-the majority of Shia stand with Hezbollah, but there are others in the Amal movement under the control of Speaker Nabih Berri and not Hezbollah) in the first place and among its allies in the second place. The social decline is at a peak, and Iran’s support is insufficient unless Iran fully achieves its own recovery – if sanctions are fully lifted – and its domestic economy recovers. As far as it concerns Iran, the consent to its allies is mandatory because the “Axis of the Resistance” is united and all share the same vocation.
However, it is not in Iran’s capability to take on the entire burden of Syria and Lebanon’s economy. Iran supported Syria financially throughout the decade of war but is in no position to finance all the needs of the state. Also, Hezbollah started as a popular resistance force against the Israeli occupation, intending to impose deterrence and protect the state from Israeli violations and ambitions. It has been heavily involved in social support to the deprived Shia sect and managed to cover many infrastructure and service holes left by the incapability of the state. But the challenge faced in the last couple of years is beyond Hezbollah’s competencies and probably beyond the means of the state itself.
It should be borne in mind, though, that the flow of the Iranian oil into Lebanon carries with it several potential risks:
First: The risk of an Israeli strike on the supply lines. This will require Hezbollah to strike back “Israel” to maintain the balance of terror and deterrence equation. The tension in the military situation between “Israel” and Hezbollah will reach its climax without going to an all-out war because “Israel” prefers “campaigns between wars” to control the damage that may result from the confrontation. However, if “Israel” strikes the Iranian oil tankers or other countries try to stop the oil from reaching Lebanon, Iran would reply and it is not expected to stop sending its tankers to Lebanon.
Second: The supply route passes through areas not controlled by Hezbollah. What will the other anti-Hezbollah groups do? Will Hezbollah find a solution to convince the (hostile) Druze, Sunni and Christians spread along its supply road to avoid intercepting its trucks, or would it be forced to face groups and be dragged into an internal battle? How will Hezbollah guarantee the cohesion of its areas from the Beqaa to the southern suburbs of Beirut and even to the South of Lebanon so that its environment would be safe from the sectarian incitement the US manipulates and drags the country toward it?
There is no doubt that Lebanon is heading toward the dissolution of the state in a fast-paced manner. This will lead to the security forces’ weakness in general and push each sect or party to provide the necessary support to the membership of its society. Lebanon is expected to live again in the 1980s era when social services were reduced, waste spread in the streets, health and education levels declined, security forces were inefficient and hopeless, and warlords were emerging out of it.
From a specific aspect, the US-Israeli blockade is relatively in the interests of Hezbollah because it receives its financial support in foreign currency. Hezbollah is a regular and coherent organisation, and it will increase its revenue from the sharp devaluation of the local currency, the selling of medicine, oil and food. Hezbollah is expected to sell gasoline and diesel at prices relatively lower than the market price. Furthermore, it is also expected to allow other areas in Lebanon to have access to all the reached products. That will permit Hezbollah to expose greedy Lebanese merchants who monopolise and stockpile medicines and gasoline to starve the market and increase prices. These Lebanese merchants will be forced to sell their goods if these are no longer a rarity in the market. The goods are currently sold on the black market at prices unaffordable to the majority of the inhabitants.
What Lebanon is suffering from is the result of decades of corruption conducted by the US friends who held the political power in the country. The downgrading of Lebanon is primarily due to the US and Israeli interventions and influence in this country: It has lost the name “Switzerland of the East” forever. The disadvantage for Hezbollah will be the security chaos, the fragmentation of the security forces and their inability to impose their authority, and the spread of poverty to hit all walks of life. It is also expected to see the country suffer different sabotage acts, bribes, further corruption- and to become a fertile platform for the Israeli intelligence to operate in. A possible and potential scenario will force Hezbollah to “clean up” the roads to ensure the continuity of its supplies, link all Shia areas together and impose “self-security” to reduce their vulnerability.
Time’s arrow cannot be reversed, and Lebanon will not return to what it was before, not for the next ten years at least. There is a possibility to create Lebanese cantons with different warlords without engaging in a civil war. Each Lebanese party would end up arming its group to support its people and area, not to engage in a battle with other parties, but to defend itself.
The collapse is the master of the situation. The US has prevented Lebanon from benefiting from Chinese and Russian offers to rebuild the country and stop it from deteriorating further. Moreover, the US forbad Europe and the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries from helping Lebanon in this crisis as they used to in the past. After all, Lebanon needs 3 to 4 billion dollars to stand on its feet and regain some of its strength after halting subsidies on various items that gobble up its cash resources.
But the challenge remains for the “Axis of Resistance” members, struggling to survive and resist the US hegemony and confront the US projects to dominate West Asia. Unless the “Axis of Resistance” members take the initiative and move from a defensive to an offensive position and impose new equations that prevent starvation of the population, this pressure will remain and even increase with time. However, supposing the US pressure is maintained, and the “Axis of the Resistance” adopts only survival mode: In that case, Lebanon’s people and the country’s stability will pay an increasingly heavy price, both now and in the years to come.
Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivered a speech in which he briefly tackled some internal Lebanese files.
Addressing mourners at the 8th night of Ashura, Sayyed Nasrallah underscored that “Some ‘senior people’ hold a press conference to attack us in Hezbollah, and they may address me personally. The best way is to ignore them. Some people work to insult us as if they don’t they won’t receive money from the Saudi and American embassies.”
“There are those monopolize fuel and gasoline on daily basis in various regions,” he added, noting that “Another reason for the crisis added to the monopoly of fuel is smuggling. There are those who took advantage of this matter and continue to smuggle fuel. The Lebanese state, the Central Bank, and many people are responsible for the problem of gasoline, diesel oil, and medicine.”
Reiterating Hezbollah’s stance from the issue, His Eminence stated: “We reject smuggling and do not approve of it. There is even religious refusal to this matter. Those who think that we approve smuggling to Syria, where we have sacrificed blood, is wrong, unjust, and suspicious.”
According to the Resistance Leader, “There are certain political leaders that are partners in covering those monopolizing fuel derivatives, and those leaders ignored monopoly and focused on the smuggling to attack Syria and its allies.”
Repeating Hezbollah’s rejection to smuggling and that it doesn’t cover anybody, he unveiled that the party is working to make diesel oil available for hospitals and municipalities.
“We contacted Syrian officials to have access to certain amounts of diesel oil to meet the needs of hospitals and bakeries, and I received calls from senior Syrian officials requesting to prevent smuggling that harms Syria’s economic plan,” he clarified.
He went on to say: “Some of those who smuggle fuel derivatives to Syria are apparently among Syria’s enemies. Controlling the borders with Syria is not Hezbollah’s responsibility but rather the state’s.”
In parallel, Sayyed Nasrallah elaborated that “What is happening in Lebanon is part of a state of economic war that aims at humiliating the Lebanese people and the Resistance.”
“The US wants Lebanon submissive and humiliated, but Lebanon is part of the front or the axis that has been dealing the US scheme blows time and again,” he confirmed, pointing out that “The war has started ahead of October 2019 with financing US embassy-affiliated civil societies. The Americans are the ones that pressed the then PM and forced him to resign. The aim of this economic war is to pressurize the Lebanese people and push them to collapse.”
Meanwhile, His Eminence assured that “Knowing that the ongoing situation is not only the result of internal problems makes our capability to be patient greater.”
However, he highlighted that “The Resistance is strong, solid and firm,” advising both “Israel” and the US not to mistaken their calculations.
Commenting on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The Afghan situation is huge, which peoples of the region should learn its strategic dimensions.”
“[US President Joe] Biden withdrew his forces from Afghanistan because he could no longer stand it,” he mentioned, noting that “The scene in Kabul is identical to that of Vietnam’s Saigon.”
Shedding Light on some aspects of the US defeat in Afghanistan, His Eminence recalled that “Biden said he has spent more than $1 trillion, while his troops left the country failed and humiliated.”
As he viewed that “The US is still ignorant and doesn’t understand the region as it repeats its mistakes,” he reminded that “Biden wanted a civil war in Afghanistan that would take place through fighting between the Taliban and the Afghan forces.”
To all those betting on the US, Sayyed Nasrallah sent a clear message: “The Americans took with them their equipment and the police dogs, but didn’t take with them those who served as their collaborators. Biden said that it is not the Americans’ duty to fight instead of anybody; this is a message for those expecting that the US would fight on their behalf.”
الانتفاضة مستمرة. وفي يومها الـ46 عمت التظاهرات والاعتصامات معظم المناطق. أما سياسياً، ففيما يسجل اليوم انضمام الدولة إلى لائحة مستوردي البنزين، لم يسجل أي تطور في الملف الحكومي، مع توقعات بأن يشهد هذا الاسبوع تقدماً ملحوظاً
لم يشهد الملف الحكومي أي تقدم جدي. لكن مؤشرات عديدة تؤكد أن الأسبوع المقبل قد يحمل في طياته بوادر اتفاق على اسم الرئيس المكلف وبرنامج عمله، بما يؤدي عملياًَ إلى الدعوة إلى الاستشارات النيابية. وفيما لا يزال اسم سمير الخطيب مطروحاً على الطاولة كأكثر الأسماء جدية حتى اليوم، كان لافتاً أمس لقاؤه بالمعاون السياسي للأمين العام لحزب الله حسين خليل، بحضور الوزير علي حسن خليل، علماً أنه اللقاء الأول الذي يجمعه بحزب الله. ورغم تقدم الخطيب على لائحة الترشيحات، إلا أن فريق 8 آذار لا يزال يتعامل مع المسألة بحذر، وسط تشكيك في أهداف الحريري وقراره عدم قيادة الحكومة.
كذلك كان لافتاً تأكيد رئيس كتلة «الوفاء للمقاومة» محمد رعد بأن «الأزمة لا تحل إلا بتشكيل حكومة وحدة وطنية وفق صيغة إتفاق الطائف، وإلا سيبقى البلد في ظلّ حكومة تصريف أعمال، وسنلاحقهم لكي يقوموا بواجبهم ومن لا يقوم بواجباته سنحاسبه». وشدد على أن «ما لم يأخذه عدونا بحربين لن نعطيه إياه بالإقتصاد».
ويشهد لبنان اليوم دخول الدولة إلى قطاع استيراد النفط، بعد سنوات طويلة من احتكار الشركات الخاصة لاستيراد البنزين وتحكّمها بالسوق. إذ يُفترض أن تشهد منشآت النفط فض العروض التي قدمت إلى مناقصة استيراد نحو 10 في المئة من حاجة السوق من مادة البنزين. علماً أن هذا الأمر لا يزال يساهم في توتر أصحاب الشركات المستوردة الذين أصدروا بياناً أمس ردوا فيه على قول وزيرة الطاقة إن استيراد الفيول الخاص بمعامل الكهرباء يتم من دولة إلى دولة. وجاء في بيانهم أن العقد الموقع مع الدولة الجزائرية، من خلال شركة سوناتراك، يتم عبر وساطة آل رحمة وآل بساتنة مناصفة مما أدى الى ان تكون الأسعار مرتفعة جداً.
ويتضح مع بدء العد العكسي لفض العروض أن ردة فعل الشركات التي عبرت عنها في الاضراب الذي نفذته المحطات منذ أيام، بدأت تأخذ أشكالاً مختلفة. إذ أعلنت محطات «الأمانة» و«الأيتام» توقفها عن تزويد زبائنها بالبنزين نظراً لنفاد هذه المادة من محطاتها. وبدا ذلك مستغرباً في ظل توفر المادة في المحاطت الأخرى، وهو ما فسر على أنه عقاب من مستوردي البنزين لهاتين الشركتين على كسرهما للإضراب، وفتح أبوابهما أمام المواطنين يوم الجمعة المنصرم.
من جهته، أوضح المدير العام لشركة منشآت النفط في لبنان سركيس حليس أن 14 شركة أبدت رغبتها بالمشاركة، لكنه أشار إلى «ضغوطات ونصائح» قدمت للكثير من الشركات كي لا تشارك في المناقصة، موضحاً أن من المفترض أن تصل البواخر إلى لبنان بعد نحو 10 إلى 15 يوماً من تاريخ توقيع العقد.
كارتيل النفط يعاقب محطات «الأيتام» و«الأمانة» و«ينصح» بعدم المشاركة في مناقصة الوزارة!
وفي اليوم الـ46 للانتفاضة الشعبّيةّ، تراجعت، نسبياً، وتيرة التحركات التي استمرت في مختلف المناطق من الشمال إلى الجنوب، فيما شهد مفرق القصر الجمهوري في بعبدا تظاهرتين، الأولى نظّمها مناصرو رئيس الجمهورية والثانية نظّمها حزب سبعة والحراك المدني. وقد تواجهت التظاهرتان أكثر من مرة إلا أن الجيش فصل بينهما، وحال دون تفاقم التوتر.
وبعنوان «أحد الوضوح» خرجت مسيرات من مناطق عديدة في بيروت التحقت بالاعتصام المركزي في وسط البلد. وشملت التحرّكات المطلبيّة برجا التي شهدت وقفة احتجاجية أمام شركة «كوجيكو» للنفط على ساحل الجية. كما تجمّع عدد من المعتصيمن في ساحة الشاعر خليل مطران في بعلبك. وفي الجنوب، نظّم الحراك الشعبي في خيمة سوق الخان في حاصبيا وقفة تضامنية مع المعتصمين الذين أحرقت خيمتهم في عاليه. ونظم حراك كفررمان تظاهرة رافضة لاحتكار الشركات للمحروقات انطلقت من دوار البلدة، والتقت مع مسيرة لحراك النبطية في محيط سرايا المدينة، واتجهت المسيرتان إلى مصرف لبنان وسط هتافات ضدّ الاحتكار والمصارف. وكذلك تجمع عدد من المتظاهرين في مرج بسري رفضاً لإنشاء السدّ. ونظّمت في صيدا مسيرة نسائية من دوار القناية إلى ساحة الاعتصام عند تقاطع إيليا. وفي الشمال، شهدت العبدة وحلبا ووادي خالد والدريب وساحة البيرة في عكار عدداً من الاعتصامات. وخرجت في طرابلس مسيرة للمطالبة بتصحيح الوضع المعيشي، وإطلاق الموقوفين على خلفية أحداث الشغب التي شهدتها المدينة.
When protests in Hong Kong, Iraq, and Lebanon erupted, I was fully anticipating protests in Iran to follow. In 2018 alone, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) had spent millions of dollars in these countries (and elsewhere) to promote America’s agenda. However, I did not expect unrest in Iran to take place while I was visiting the country. In retrospect, I am glad that I was here to be witness to these latest events.
On Thursday, November 21st, friends took me to a very charming Iranian restaurant in the heart of the city. During our lunch, they talked about there being a price hike in gasoline. After lunch, we walked around the charming downtown area of Tehran, visited shops, and exhausted climbed into a cab. We asked the cab driver if he had heard anything about prices going up. He told us that this was just a rumor. As such, the increase in the price of gasoline took Iranians by surprise. Regrettably, the government of President Rohani had not explained the rationale behind the price increase PRIOR to the increase itself. In several parts of Iran, protests erupted. Perhaps justified, and they were peaceful. One could argue they were disruptive in that cars blocked roads, making it difficult for others, causing traffic jams, but there was no vandalism on the first day – not to my knowledge.
But calm soon gave way to violence. A friend who lives in the suburbs of Tehran, in Karaj, told me that on a single street in that sleepy suburb, protestors had set 4 banks on fire. Elsewhere, police stations were attacked, banks and gas stations set on fire. Businesses were set on fire and destroyed. People were sending text messages to each other giving locations of alleged protests in the hopes of gathering people in one spot or another.
This did not surprise me. I was certain that “swarming” tactic was being implemented (as I believe it was elsewhere mentioned above). First developed by RAND as a military and tactical tool, RAND’s publication “Swarming & The Future of Conflict” states:
In Athena’s Camp, we speculated that swarming is already emerging as an appropriate doctrine for networked forces to wage information-age conflict. This nascent doctrine derives from the fact that robust connectivity allows for the creation of a multitude of small units of maneuver, networked in such a fashion that, although they might be widely distributed, they can still come together, at will and repeatedly, to deal resounding blows to their adversaries. This study builds on these earlier findings by inquiring at length into why and how swarming might be emerging as a preferred mode of conflict for small, dispersed, internetted units. In our view, swarming will likely be the future of conflict.”
“Social conflict also features pack-like organizations, as exemplified by modern-day “soccer hooligans.” They generally operate in a loosely dispersed fashion, then swarm against targets of opportunity who are “cut out” from a larger group of people. The use of modern information technologies—from the Internet to cell phones—has facilitated plans and operations by such gangs (see Sullivan, 1997)”.
Swarming depends on robust information flow and is a necessary condition for successful swarming. In other words, by controlling communication and sending texts to ‘protestors,’ random groups are mobilized together in one or various spots. Chaos ensues, which naturally draws reaction. One is never aware of the origin of the messages. In one of her talks, Suzanne Maloney of Brookings seemed to know the exact number of cell phones in use in Iran. These messages increased in number, as did the vandalism and reaction to the destructive behavior. This was not the first time that this tactic had been used in Iran. But it was the first time that Iran’s adversaries were surprised, shocked even, to see that Iran was capable of shutting down the Internet so quickly in order to put a stop to the spread of violence and restore calm.
I drove around in Tehran from end to end, either with friends or in a cab, and took note of the streets. I watched both Iranian TV news and foreign media such as BBC Persian, VOA, Radio Farda, Saudi funded Iran International broadcasted into Iran through satellite (at times jammed) to encourage people to get out on the streets and to protest. Iran was covered under a blanket of snow. With freezing temperatures, I was amused to see BBC Persian show pictures of ‘demonstrators’ in T-shirts. I was angry to see Reza Pahlavi, the deposed Shah of Iran appear on Iran International encouraging people to get out onto the streets. I felt insulted on behalf of every Iranian when Secretary Pompeo retweeted an old tweet and then tweeted again that ‘he was with the Iranian people’ – not to eat, not to receive medicinal goods, not to address their desire for peace and security, but to endure all kinds of hardship and to be subjected to American terrorism (sanctions) and go out on the streets to protest in order to promote America’s agenda.
The hostile foreign media even showed pictures of a ‘protestor’ handing out flowers to security personnel – a symbol first used against the Pentagon in 1967 by a woman protesting the war in Vietnam (and later in the 2014 US-backed coup in Ukraine). Except I could not tell if the picture I saw streaming through the foreign media’s satellite television was Iran or not. The viewer was told it was. The symbol was powerful, but I doubt very much that it was an indigenous one.
With the Internet disconnected, foreign media propaganda then had its viewers believe people were calling from inside Iran; eyewitnesses were reporting events. A voice telling BBC, or Iran International, or …… what was going on. Just a voice which would not doubt then be picked up as eyewitness testimony and shared in all media outlets. The ease with which individuals in various target countries always manage to get directly through television stations has always fascinated me. No automated answer – just straight to the newsroom.
In all this, I can’t help but ask why it was that none of the banks and gas stations set on fire, buildings burnt and businesses ruined, were not located in the pro-West parts of Tehran. Their life continued without a hitch – homes safe, business safe. After all, the main reason for the gasoline price increase was to help the less affluent and the poor. Perhaps as Daniel McAdams of the Ron Paul Institute said of the CIA’s role behind the uprisings, Michael D’Andrea, aka “Ayatollah Mike” wanted them safe. Regardless of the reason, CIA/NED spent millions and failed – again.
لم يكتفِ رياض سلامة بكل ما فعله خلال ربع قرن من سياسات نقدية ومالية أفقرت الشعب اللبناني. ولم يقبل التواضع والخروج من الساحة، وقاتل لأجل ذلك مستخدماً أموال الدولة والمودعين، مانعاً تغييره منذ عام 2005. ولم يكتفِ بما جعل لبنان يدفع كلفة بقائه حاكماً قبل ثلاث سنوات. كذلك لم يكتفِ بالسماح بتهريب أموال كبار أثرياء الحرب الأهلية والحرب الاقتصادية وسارقي الدولة والناس في الأشهر الماضية، بل هو يواصل كذبه على الناس، ويتحدث عن صلابة وسلامة النقد والقطاع المصرفي. ولا يزال يصرّ على سياسات هدفها الأول والأخير المحافظة على أرباح كارتيلات البلاد المنتشرة في كل القطاعات، من المصارف الى النفط والمواد الاستهلاكية وتجّار العملة أيضاً.
الأمر لا يقف عند هذا الحد، بل إن شركاء سلامة، في جولة اليوم، هم من أبناء الطبقة الحاكمة، من رجال أعمال يخدمون سياسيين كباراً بغية المحافظة على نفوذهم وقوّتهم. وبعض هؤلاء يحاولون ركوب موجة الحراك، وتراهم يتحدثون عن الثورة ونظافتها، مثل تاجر الدم والنهب وليد جنبلاط، الذي لم يكتفِ بإرسال زعرانه لقطع طريقَي الساحل والبقاع، وقتل متمرد عليه هو علاء أبو فخر برصاص الموالين له، بل هو اليوم يشارك في تصعيد مفتعل يقف خلفه كارتيل المحروقات، وهو أحدهم، من أجل جباية المزيد من الأرباح، والتي لا نعرف إن كان يضمن مسبقاً تهريبها الى خارج لبنان. وهو يفعل ذلك مطمئناً الى أن جماعة أميركا والـ«ان جي أوز» في الحراك، يمنعون أي كلمة ضده، وأي اعتصام في مواجهته، وأي تحرك تجاه منزله في بيروت أو المختارة، وأي اعتصام ضده في إمارة الشوف وعاليه، وأي بيان يجعله، فعلاً، واحداً من «كلن يعني كلن».
عنوانان احتلّا مشهد البلاد أمس، الى جانب البحث المملّ بشأن الوضع الحكومي، والذي لا يبشّر بخير، حتى ولو تحدد موعد الاستشارات، لأن الذين يريدون تأليف الحكومة هم أنفسهم الذين يرفض الشارع بقاءهم في مناصبهم. والعنوان الأول، هو استمرار التلاعب بسعر الليرة اللبنانية، وتواصل عملية ابتزاز المواطنين الساعين الى استعادة أموالهم المودعة في المصارف. والعنوان الثاني يتعلق بإضراب أصحاب محطات البنزين، وهم شبكة من كبار تجار النفط وموزعيه، والذين حصدوا أموالاً طائلة من الأرباح طوال الفترة الماضية، ويقف جنبلاط في مقدمهم، من أعمال «كوجيكو»، (بالإضافة الى نشاطه في قطاع الغاز والاسمنت)، الى الفرنسيين من خلال شركة «توتال»، الى أبناء البساتنة الذين صاروا يملكون عدداً هائلاً من محطات الوقود، ويتشاركون مع الأخوَين ريمون وتيدي رحمة في استيراد النفط والفيول من الخارج، الى أصحاب المحطات الأخرى من مارون شمّاس وأوسكار يمّين وآل رمضان، وغيرهم من الذين لا يريدون التنازل عن 5 بالمئة من أرباحهم في هذه الأزمة، ويتحدثون عن صعوبات تواجه عمليات الاستيراد.
لكن سلامة يعود ليقف على رأس فرقة إنقاذ هؤلاء. إذ عندما قررت وزارة الطاقة القيام بمبادرة كان يجب أن تكون سياسة عامة منذ وقت طويل، وقررت استيراد البنزين عبر «منشآت النفط»، لتضع ما ستستورده في خزانات تتسع لكميات تكفي البلاد لثلاثة أشهر على الأقل… عندما قررت الوزارة ذلك، قرر أصحاب المحطات الإضراب، بينما يعرقل سلامة إقرار الاعتمادات المالية للوزارة، مؤخِّراً عملية الاستيراد، ومتصرّفاً مع الدولة بطريقة لا تأخذ بالحسبان الأزمة القائمة. يريد منها اتخاذ إجراءات ستنعكس حكماً على المواطنين من خلال رفع أسعار الوقود الآن، من البنزين الى المازوت الذي سيرتفع الطلب عليه في فصل الشتاء والبرد.
اجتماع بعبدا يطالب مصرف لبنان بخفض الفوائد وبتسهيل متطلّبات المودعين
وإلى جانب هذا المسار، لا يزال سلامة يكذب على الناس في شأن الوضع المالي. هو أعلن بلسانه أن الودائع محميّة، وأنه يرفض إقرار قانون لتقييد السحوبات والتحويلات (capital control)، وأنه لن يمسّ بحرية التحويلات المالية الى الخارج. لكنه لم يلزم المصارف بهذا التوجه، بل تركها تتصرف كما لو أن القرار موجود. ثم لم يناقش المصارف في الإجراءات التي تقوم بها لمواجهة طلبات الزبائن. وبينما أعلنت جمعية المصارف برنامج عملها، عادت ولم تلتزم به، وفرضت على الناس البرنامج الذي يناسبها، وهي التي حددت سقف السحب اليومي أو الأسبوعي من العملات المحلية أو الأجنبية. وفوق ذلك، فإن سلامة يترك قطاع الصرّافين يعمل بلا رقيب أو حسيب، علماً بأنه من مسؤولياته، كما هي حال شركات شحن الأموال، التي يرفع أصحابها لواء «ثورة الفقراء»، لكنهم غير مستعدين لخسارة واحد في المئة من أرباحهم.
في القصر الجمهوري، انعقد اجتماع مالي هو الثاني منذ اندلاع الأزمة. وغاب عنه رئيس حكومة تصريف الأعمال سعد الحريري، المهتم بتأليف حكومة يديرها من دون أن يترأّسها. وخلال الاجتماع، جرت مراجعة حاكم مصرف لبنان وجمعية المصارف في الإجراءات المتخذة في سوق القطع وكيفية التعامل مع المودعين. وبحسب معلومات مشاركين في الاجتماع، من المفترض أن يبادر رياض سلامة ــــ ولا أحد يثق بأنه سيفعل شيئاً ــــ إلى إلزام المصارف بسياسات تسهّل للناس الحصول على حاجتهم من أموالهم المودعة، وكذلك تسهيل التحويلات الضرورية للناس وللأعمال إلى الخارج. لكن النقطة الجديدة التي أثيرت في اجتماع أمس، هي دفع القطاع المصرفي الى خفض الفوائد المعتمدة على العملات المحلية والأجنبية الى النصف، باعتبار أن سبب رفعها سابقاً لم يعد موجوداً، إذ كان سلامة يبرّر رفع الفوائد بالحاجة الى جذب أموال من الخارج، وهو ما لا يحصل الآن. ويفترض أن يصدر عن حاكم مصرف لبنان وجمعية المصارف مجموعة من القرارات والتعاميم في هذا السياق.
أما في جانب عمل الصرّافين، فالصورة تبدو قاتمة، حيث لا يضمن أحد من المسؤولين تغييرات حقيقية. وبينما ارتفع سعر الليرة مساء أول من أمس، عاد وانهار أمس ليبقى متداولاً بين 2100 و2250 ليرة لكل دولار.