Member of Hezbollah Central Council Sheikh Nabil Qawook stressed that the Resistance in Lebanon has beeen accumulating more power since October 7, adding that the Zionist threats will never change the formulas of deterrence.
Addressing a mourning ceremony held to commemorate the martyr all the way to Al-Quds Abdul Karim Samhat in Beirut’s Dahiyeh, Sheikh Qawook affirmed that Hezbollah will respond powerfully and swiftly to any Zionist crime against the civilians in South Lebanon.
This development has been highlighted by the Israeli media outlets which concentrated on Hezbollah ability to utilize different military means to attack the IOF sites near Lebanon borders.
Th3e Zionist concerns and fears of Hezbollah military power as reported by the enemy media focused mainly on the drones.
The Israeli reports indicated that Hezbollah drones are capable of collecting data and carrying out attacks, wondering how the Zionist radars and air defense systems have failed to intercept a drone which penetrated the occupied airspace to a distance of 15 kilometers.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah speaks on a screen via a video link during a ceremony to mark the anniversary of the martyrdom of Hezbollah leaders, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, February 16, 2024 (AP)
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah underlines that the Israeli occupation’s crimes in southern Lebanon will be responded to in kind and that Hezbollah will not only strike military sites.
The Israeli occupation will pay with blood for its killing of civilians in southern Lebanon, as this is a sensitive issue for the Resistance and a red line that was crossed, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said during a speech on Friday to commemorate the fallen leaders of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon.
“The aggression on Nabatieh and al-Sawaneh is a momentous development in the ongoing confrontation because it targeted civilians,” he underlined, stressing that the Israeli occupation killed civilians intentionally.
“The enemy will pay with blood for its shedding of our women and children’s blood in Nabatieh and al-Sawaneh,” he stressed.
“Civilians are a sensitive issue, and the enemy must understand that it has gone too far if it gets to killing our civilians,” the Lebanese Resistance leader affirmed, noting that the occupation deliberately killed civilians to force the Resistance to halt its operations, as “all the pressures exerted since October 7 had the goal of shutting down the southern front.”
“Bombing ‘Kiryat Shmona’ with dozens of Katyusha rockets and several Falaq missiles is a preliminary response,” Sayyed Nasrallah underlined.
The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon – Hezbollah continued on Thursday targeting Israeli military sites and settlements in support of the Palestinian people in Gaza and the Palestinian Resistance, as well as in response to the Israeli occupation’s attacks on Lebanese villages and civilian homes in southern Lebanon.
The Islamic Resistance issued a brief statement announcing that its fighters targeted the Israeli settlement of “Kiryat Shmona” with dozens of Katyusha rockets as an initial response to the massacres in Nabatieh and al-Sawaneh.
Furthermore, the fighters of the resistance targeted the Samaqa site with missiles, with several direct hits confirmed.
The Islamic Resistance also declared that its fighters, using suitable weapons, attacked espionage equipment at the Marj, al-Raheb, and al-Naqoura locations in addition to the Ruweisat al-Alam site in the occupied Lebanese Shebaa Farms.
While lamenting the loss of civilian life, Sayyed Nasrallah went on to underline that military casualties were a natural part of any battle of liberation. “We are at the heart of a battle that spans over 100km, and the martyrdom of Resistance fighters is part of this battle,” he said.
As he went on to vow that the Resistance would retaliate against the Israeli occupation, he said the response to the massacre in southern Lebanon “must be an escalation in jihadist work on the battlefront,” warning the Israeli occupation that the Resistance has a massive missile power that would allow it to strike Israeli targets from “Kiryat Shmona” all the way to “Eilat”.
Capitulation is not an option
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addressed the minority calling for the Resistance to halt its operations and allow for the continuation of the bloodshed in Gaza, saying capitulation “bears a great, devastating cost that could even become existential.”
“Capitulation means subservience and humiliation, and it will allow for violations of our elders, our youth, our women, and our property,” he explained.
In a similar vein and in light of the Arab and Islamic worlds allowing Gaza to be violated as they stood idle, Sayyed Nasrallah asked: “Is it not humiliating and a symbol of weakness that entire states ruling over 2 billion Muslims are unable to administer medicine and food to the people of Gaza?”
Speaking further on internal Lebanese issues, he pledged that the Resistance’s arms “are not to be used for altering the Lebanese political regime or constitution and imposing a sectarian status quo in the country.”
Moreover, he said the Resistance’s arms “are to protect Lebanon, and the land borders are demarcated; the only way any negotiations take place will be on the basis of exiting our Lebanese soil.”
“The US is preventing the Lebanese Army from having adequate arms and missiles for defending Lebanon and deterring any aggression on it,” he added.
US to blame for the bloodshed
If an investigation is opened into October 7, Sayyed Nasrallah said, “the basis for the moral and legal pretexts Netanyahu and Biden are using for their goal of destroying Hamas will collapse.”
“Many people have fallen for the historic Israeli false narrative regarding October 7, including countries that claim to be friendly with Hamas,” he said. “The Palestinian Resistance has been subjected since October 7 to the worst humiliation and smear campaigns any Resistance movement has been subjected to in our contemporary history.”
“The worst case of hypocrisy witnessed by the world today is the stance of the US administration regarding what is going on in Gaza,” he further said, noting that if Washington were to stop arming the Israeli occupation, “the war on Gaza will stop whether Netanyahu wills it or not.”
“The United States is more insistent than “Israel” on the destruction of Hamas,” Sayyed Nasrallah added, holding the US responsible for “every drop of blood in the region, while Israeli officials are mere tools used in this bloodshed.”
“[Israeli Security Minister Yoav] Gallant has nearly gone mad,” he jokingly said about the Israeli official. “He’s talking about [striking] 50km [deep into Lebanon] and [striking] Beirut. It appears that he forgot that the Resistance – he might be [having a mental breakdown] and he forgot, although we have addressed this several times – has major precision missile capabilities.”
Resistance sole option
“The Resistance in Lebanon and Palestine broke Israeli deterrence and destroyed its image while shifting the balance of power by establishing a deterrent,” he added.
The Israeli occupation’s goal of the siege on Gaza prior to October 7, was to kill all of Gaza silently while the world stood idle.
“The goal of the Israeli occupation is to expel all the people of the West Bank to Jordan, the people of Gaza to Egypt, and the people of the occupied Palestinian territories to Lebanon,” he underlined.
“It is our responsibility to prevent the displacement of Palestinians, which requires a major confrontation,” he added.
“No matter how much we praise it, we will not be able to describe the legendary Resistance in Gaza and the historic resilience of the people of Gaza,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, commending all Gazans for their steadfastness.
Further stressing that the Lebanese Resistance was acting in solidarity with the people of Palestine, he said: “The Israelis and Americans did not think that the Resistance in Lebanon would have the bravery or the will to launch a front in support of Gaza.”
“Our goal in the Axis of Resistance as peoples, states, and Resistance fighters was and will remain the defeat of the enemy,” he said. “The enemy’s defeat is by foiling its plans,” he further stressed.
“The goal of the Axis of Resistance is inflicting the largest amount of losses on the enemy during this battle to force it to withdraw,” he explained.
Finally, commenting on the ongoing negotiations between the Palestinian Resistance and the Israeli occupation, Sayyed Nasrallah said, “The parties involved in political negotiations are the Palestinian Resistance factions that delegated Hamas, and we have no hand in the ongoing talks.”
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Hezbollah fighter, on border guard duty, sitting astride a motorbike blocking the pathway of an Israeli Merkava tank that had broken through the electric fence into Lebanese territories, the photo was taken by Al-Manar correspondent Ali Sheaib, Jalet al-Mahafer, 2022 (Al Mayadeen English- Designed by Mahdi Rtail)
To analyze and contextualize the burgeoning war in south Lebanon, this paper borrows the theoretical concepts of Galtung’s conflict theory and reviews Amal Saad’s recent article on The Guardian.
More than 100 days have passed since Al-Aqsa Flood came crashing down on the colonial outpost of US imperialism in West Asia; the tide has been only gaining momentum since. The war quickly spilled over beyond the territories of Occupied Palestine to include south Lebanon most notably.
Revisiting Johan Galtung’s Conflict Theory, this paper will borrow theoretical concepts introduced by Galtung to analyze and structure Al-Aqsa Flood. Galtung introduces a set of simplistic classifications and twin criteria that bring burgeoning conflicts into perspective and allow for a formal analysis.
The two classifications that I chose to expound on are Scale and Intensity. Scale will be useful to lay out the overarching context to then zero in on Lebanon which is the primary subject of study for this paper. Intensity serves to demonstrate conflict as being dynamic fluctuating along lines of escalation and de-escalation.
An interesting nuance that Galtung formalizes is that between Latent Conflict and Manifest Conflict. The former describes the underlying tensions, between two parties, that are not yet explicitly acted upon (typically, this state of affairs is understood to be “Negative Peace” where Direct Violence is absent). The latter describes the state of affairs where strife is actively occurring (Direct Violence breaks out).
Development from Latent Conflict into Manifest Conflict can also be understood using the heuristic of Galtung’s ABC Triangle of Violence. In the Triangle, Galtung pinpoints three focal points in conflict: Attitude, Behavior, and Contradiction. In the case of liberation struggles, as is the struggle against Zionist colonialism and US imperialism, the Contradiction is the nexus, the primary focal point from which violence spirals out of: the spiral of violence originates from Contradiction anddevelopsinto Attitudes and Behaviors. In Behavior, it develops as manifest conflict. In Attitude, it develops as latent conflict.
Galtung’s ABC Triangle of Violence: Contradiction Spiral (Illustrated by Arwa Makki)
Conflict Scale: Beligrents and Fronts
Gaza became ground zero for the war on October 7th, but Al-Aqsa Flood has resonated all throughout the region since.
Beligrents in support of the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza have included the Palestinian resistance factions in the West Bank, the Lebanese Resistance, the Islamic Resistance factions in Iraq, the Yemeni Armed Forces, the resistance, and the Islamic Revolution’s Guard in Iran. Beligrents on the side of the Israelis have included the US-led occupation coalition in Syria, the US-led occupation coalition in Iraq, the US-led aggression coalition in the Red Sea, and the Takfiri terrorist network in the region (Daesh, Jaish ul-Adl, etc.).
Fronts from which operations are being launched directly against the Israeli occupation, in addition to Gaza, include most notably South Lebanon (which serves as the second battlefront of this war), the West Bank (where lone-wolf stabbing/shooting/ramming operations and counter-raid concerted action by underground resistance cells have increased in frequency), in addition to Syria Iraq and Yemen (from where drones and missiles have been launched against the occupied territories most notably Al-Jalil “Galilee Heights”, Um Al-Rashrash “Eilat”, and even recently Haifa).
Complimentary fronts, from where operations don’t directly target “Israel” but rather aim to build up pressure on “Israel” and its imperialist proppers to consolidate a ceasefire in Gaza. These complimentary fronts include the Red and Arabian Seas (where the Yemeni Armed Forces and Resistance have enforced a naval blockade against Israeli and “Israel”-bound ships), northeast Syria (where US and coalition occupation bases are being shelled by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq), and Iraq (where, similarly, US and coalition occupation are being shelled by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq).
Concentric Fronts Surrounding “Israel” (Illustrated by Mahdi Rtail)
Mired “Israel” thrashes at the entire region
Throughout modern history, all parties involved in materially supporting the Palestinian resistance have been punished by being subjected to imperialist and zionist terrorism. Prior to the war, it had manifested primarily as economic sanctions (with the exception of Gaza, the West Bank, and Syria which had frequently fallen subject to Israeli military aggression in addition to economic sanctions).
After the war, especially after being frustrated by the little-yielding ground invasion of Gaza, this terrorism had manifested in brazenly more savage means. Over the span of the war, the Israeli occupation bombed Palestine Lebanon & Syria and US occupation forces bombed both Iraq and Yemen.
Jointly, the US imperialist forces and the Israeli Occupation Forces assassinated prominent resistance commanders: including IRGC commander Razi Mousavi (by “Israel”), Hamas politburo official Saleh al-Arouri(by “Israel”), Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah commander Moshtaq al-Saidi (by the US), and most recently Hezbollah high-ranking commander Wissam Tawil (by “Israel”)
In addition to a US-UK large-scale aerial aggression against Yemen last week, and the Daesh twin-terrorist bombings that targeted hundreds of Iranian civilians earlier this month.
Digressing briefly, Iran has long been sanctioned for materially and consistently supporting the Palestinian resistance: Economic embargos, political subversion, covert sabotage operations, assassinations, terrorist attacks, etc. The Islamic Republic of Iran even before getting involved in any proactive military action, before becoming neither a front nor a belligerent, has been subjected to imperialist warmongering and the terrorism of imperialism’s takfiri footsoldiers: affirming the persistent neocon tradition of hawkishness in the White House but discreetly through proxies.
Conflict Intensity: escalation or de-escalation
Carrying on with Galtung’s theory, violence as he defines is tripartite Direct Violence (commonly militaristic), Structural Violence (commonly in law or regime), and Cultural Violence (commonly in beliefs and consequent attitudes). The latter two are latent forms of violence: characteristic of Latent Conflict. The former is the manifest form of violence: characteristic of Manifest Conflict.
Manifest Conflict follows from an escalation in Latent Conflict. Similarly, escalation beyond a certain threshold would lead a Manifest Conflict to become an Escalated Conflict. Furthermore, Galtung details that a Conflict if escalated develops into Crisis or War (throughout the paper I will not be committing to the gradation-escalation levels of conflict, crisis, and war; I will be using war and conflict interchangeably).
Violence Intensity (Illustrated by Arwa Makki)
Conflict is not a sudden state of affairs that flutters in and out of existence at the whims of the conflict parties but rather is a long-lasting state of affairs that fluctuates along a scale of intensity, escalating and de-escalating: becoming dormant at times and resurfacing at others based on the development of events, and ceasing to exist only when the contradiction of interests is resolved (i.e. Positive Peace or Sustainable Peace is achieved).
This prospect of escalation is best understood as formulated by the Fourth Law of Dialectics: Quantity into Quality. A state of affairs intensifies accumulatively till it reaches a threshold whereby quantitative increase is not possible anymore and the state of affairs changes qualitatively into a different state of affairs (Politzer, 1946).
Gaza and South Lebanon: the build-up to the war
Despite the macroscopic scale of Al-Aqsa Flood, Gaza and south Lebanon remain thus far the only active battlefronts against the Israeli occupation.
Throughout recent history both Lebanon (primarily the South) and Palestine (primarily Gaza) have suffered severely under the plight of US-sponsored Israeli aggression: massacres, forced displacement, and occupation.
In this struggle, the two nations grew more radicalized against their enemy (bearing arms and organizing their people into resistance movements) and steadily consolidated their binational solidarity (institutionalizing their alliance and proliferating it as the Axis of Resistance).
In Gaza, in recent years, the latent structural violence of colonialism has been brazenly intensifying, especially with the extremist right-wing Cabinet headed by Netanyahu (installed in late 2022) and the increasingly frequent incidents of settler violence in the West Bank and al-Quds. October 7th 2023 was the threshold day. Violence broke out on a large scale after the Palestinian resistance had launched the long-deliberated operation that was the natural result of years of intensifying oppression. Latent Conflict developed into a Manifest Conflict and escalated at a sharp pace with the savage bombing campaigns and the ground invasion. The aggression against Gaza quickly snowballed into an all-out War (a high-intensity conflict).
Galtung’s Triangle of the Types Violence: Structural Violence Spiral (illustrated by Arwa Makki)
In Lebanon, the front erupted following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and in solidarity with the Palestinian Resistance. (Despite the intertwined stakes of Lebanese national interest and Palestinian national interest in contradiction to Israeli security) there was no buildup of a recent Latent Conflict between Lebanon and the Israeli occupation that reached a threshold on October 8th (in contrast to Gaza). The eruption of the front in south Lebanon came to echo Operation Al-Aqsa Flood i.e. in solidarity with the people of Gaza and their valiant and honorable resistance (as the opening of the resistance’s military statements commonly read).
Patience and far-sightedness
However other latent frustrations in Lebanon preceded the eruption of the battlefront. In addition to solidarity with Gaza and anticipating long-term advantages to Lebanese national interest, a key factor that goes unnoticed is the latent economic frustrations.
To digress again, when discussing the war build-up, a key prospect that commonly goes unnoticed is the radicalizing effect that the economic crisis has had on the Lebanese. In addition to national interest, binational solidarity, and religious fervor which are the primary drives mobilizing the Lebanese towards anti-zionist resistance, the prospect of accumulated economic frustration has radicalized a large segment of the Lebanese population against imperialism which was perceived to play a key role in enabling such a drastic crisis in Lebanon.
For the past 5 years, the Lebanese have experienced the worst socio-economic crisis in recent history after the Ponzi scheme engineered by the US-propped central bank chief crashed. A systematically un-industrial rentier economy structured by the US and the Gulf back in the 1990s broke down: coupled with active efforts to economically pressure Lebanon to draw political concessions regarding the resistance. In addition to a sectarian consociational regime of governance that is doomed into recurrent cases of zero-sum game gridlock, making it impossible for a government to make decisions regarding the economy, public policy, or foreign relations. Recent years have exercised an extensive economic strain on the Resistance.
Lebanese stability recurrently faltered as “protracted social conflict” seemed to sharpen in light of dire economic conditions (Edward Azar, 1990): with Christian right-wing parties and liberal NGO-type groups blaming the resistance for the crisis (for refusing to make the political concessions dictated by the West and the Gulf States that would restore the old insovereign rentier economic system).
Thus, the extensive social and economic strain on the milieu of the Resistance or the “masses of the Resistance” (as Sayyed Nasrallah commonly refers to them), radicalized them further against the US: who pulled out the centerpiece of the make-shift kaleidoscopic Lebanese economy they had engineered sending it crashing down on Hezbollah.
This new level of anti-imperialist radicalization among a segment of the Lebanese reaffirmed the aptness of the decision to organize into anti-zionist resistance factions; for “Israel” is understood to be an advanced outpost for imperialism in the region, and the security of “Israel” is understood to be one the primary objectives of imperialism in the region (in addition to accumulating super-profits for oligarchs).
If this frustration has been discharged satisfactorily by any means it was through anti-zionist military action. It’s poetic justice for the Lebanese to threaten Israeli security after being economically bullied for 5 years to concede to “Israel” its security by disarming the resistance.
Low-Intensity Conflict in South Lebanon
In Gaza, a latent conflict steadily intensified until a manifest conflict broke out: quickly escalating into a high-intensity conflict. In Lebanon, however, the conflict was the result of intensifying latent frustrations, national interest, and binational solidarity.
On October 8th, the front erupted in Lebanon and it has steadily escalated since, however, it has thus far remained, arguably, a low-intensity conflict.
Since the commencement of the first operation, the Lebanese resistance has deliberated not to give in to the appeal of adventurism (going all in for all-out war): for a set of reasons elucidated in the speeches of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (which include losing the advantage of a surprise attack, the weakened Lebanese economy, as well as the comparative advantage of low-intensity conflict etc).
This strategy of decisively targeting Israeli military sites within the framework of a low-intensity conflict has proved effective in accumulatively inflicting small losses on the IOF (Israeli Occupation Forces), and building up pressure on “Israel”. The immediate and announced objective of the operations from Lebanon has been clear: building up pressure on “Israel” to concede to a ceasefire in Gaza.
In the long term, the persistence of the status quo of low-intensity warfare within the frame of the laws of engagement of deterrence between the Lebanese resistance and the Israeli Occupation Forces is a lot more harmful to “Israel” than it is to Lebanon given the nature of the conflict (profit-driven colonizers vs a popular indigenous liberation movement).
“You can kill ten of my men for every one I kill of yours, but even at those odds, you will lose and I will win.”
-Vietnamese Communist Revolutionary Ho Chi Minh to French Colonizers on the eve of the liberation war (1946)
Low-intensity conflict: accumulative small gains, minimized losses
On the Lebanese battlefront, as aforementioned, the war burgeons within the framework of a low-intensity conflict which allows for decisive contained hits: accumulating in advantage.
In 100 days, the Lebanese resistance has executed more than 700 operations against the occupation. The resistance targetted all front-line military sites along the borders and even managed to target 17 settlements, according to figures cited by the Secretary General of Hezbollah in a speech earlier this month.
While the IOF continues to underreport losses fearing demoralization in the settler society, Israeli media outlets report that hospitals have been abounding with injured soldiers and cemeteries with killed soldiers. Israeli media also report that thousands of Israeli soldiers have been incapacitated; estimates range from 4,000 (confirmed) up to 30,000 (projected).
The primary objective of the Lebanese battlefront, as is the case with other complimentary fronts, has been to build up pressure against the Israeli-War Cabinet to agree to a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange deal on the terms of the Palestinian resistance, and dissolving the blockade against Gaza. The secondary objective of the Lebanese resistance, as is the case with other complimentary fronts, is the respective national interest (in Lebanon it manifests as consolidating the equation of deterrence and tipping its balance against “Israel” so that it concedes occupied Lebanese territories, namely Shebaa farms).
Both of these objectives are being steadily worked for in Lebanon. IOF losses in the north have been steadily accumulating:
Sabotaged Israeli surveillance and reconnaissance tech devices installed on the border (effectively blinding the IOF on the south-Lebanese border to a large extent).
Surmounting human casualties in the IOF which include injured, incapacitated, and killed.
Massive involuntary and voluntary relocation of Israeli settlers from the north to the center which the Resistance’s operations have resulted in.
Enforcing a de facto security belt inside “Israel” which is unprecedented in the history of the Lebanese-Israeli wars and the Arab-Israeli wars (as explained in the most recent speech of the Secretary-General of the resistance).
Spreading the Israeli army too thin.
The IOF spokesperson cited intense exhaustion as being a key factor behind the blunders of the IOF in Gaza and the underwhelming efficiency of the ground operation: Explaining that most soldiers have been on duty continuously without substitution because their compatriots are mobilized in the north.
Phase 3 in Gaza: de-escalation or redirecting escalation?
Due to the ongoing pressure against “Israel”, whether through the admirable steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance, the intensifying decisive operations by the Lebanese resistance, the blockade against Israeli navigation in the Arabian and Red Seas by the Yemeni Armed Forces and the Yemeni resistance, the increasingly frequent strikes against US occupation bases in Syria and Iraq by the Iraqi Resistance, and the international efforts to condemn “Israel” spearheaded by South Africa in the ICJ, the vehemence of the US-sponsored death machine in Gaza seems to be getting slowly quelled.
The US has announced that it will be pressuring the Israeli government to mitigate its genocidal war which has been detrimental to both parties’ international PR. The IOF has announced that it has started shifting to a lower-intensity Phase 3 (decreasing the bulk of troop presence in Gaza, relying more on airstrikes, and employing targeted raids).
Ever since the preliminary steps of Phase 3 started coming into effect under the plight of US pressure against the fascist Israeli War Cabinet, Netanyahu, along with his genocide boyband, seems to have started looking for different avenues to continue the war to perpetuate his ill-fated political career against a seemingly imminent soft-coup by the Biden administration.
“Israel” is pushing Hezbollah to its limits: Amal Saad
“Just as Israel revealed its plan to withdraw thousands of troops from northern Gaza for the next phase of its ongoing war, the senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri was killed in a targeted assassination in Beirut,” Amal Saad writes in a recent piece for The Guardian published on January 5th shortly after the assassination of Sheikh Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut.
Amal Saad elucidates the significance and possible implications of this grave attack against Lebanon which seemed to try to nullify the deterrence enforced by the Lebanese resistance against the IOF since 2006.
“Hezbollah is in all likelihood concerned that a failure to respond decisively will invite Israel to go on an extrajudicial killing spree in Beirut – not just against Hamas but also eventually against its [Hezbollah] own officials,” she explains. “This would require a carefully measured retaliation that simultaneously signifies an escalation in terms of scope and intensity, but falls short of all-out war.”
The Lebanese resistance’s retaliation followed one day later. A combined Kornet-Grad artillery attack by the Resistance pummelled the Meron airforce base which served as an intelligence military command hub for the occupation. The operation, as Amal Saad had reasoned was a high-intensity retaliation falling short of an all-out war.
Furthermore, she explains that the objective of the Israeli attempt at undermining the deterrence equation seemingly serves as an attempt at provoking Hezbollah into an all-out war.
“An even greater concern is that Israel is seeking to provoke Hezbollah into a full-scale war that would involve the US as a co-belligerent.”
“…whether or not Israel, which is incapable of confronting Hezbollah on its own, is seeking to drag the US into a full-blown regional war.”
Commenting on this, Amal Saad later emphasized that “Hezbollah is keen to avoid an all-out war – but it is ready for one.”
This was later emphasized in the latest speech by the Secretary General of Hezbollah on January 14th.
“We have gone to war within the framework of this low-intensity warfare,” he said
“[However] since 99 days we have been ready for war, we do not fear it. We will not hesitate. we will venture on this war [if it’s forced upon us]. We will fight with no boundaries any limits or any restrictions,” Sayyed Nasrallah warned.
Hypothesizing
Netanyahu seems to have foresaw the imminent dead end in Gaza. Complete withdrawal will turn Gaza into “Israel’s” Cuba: stuck in a perpetual Missile Crisis. Persisting with the ground operation will turn it into “Israel’s” Vietnam: a swamp of attrition warfare that would surely end his career and possibly end his state: steadily inching away at it.
The only way “Israel” could achieve the objectives of its ground operation (i.e. uprooting the resistance) is if every last Palestinian in Gaza was killed or expelled from the strip.
Killing 2 million people in the 21st century is not beyond “Israel” but it would end the US’ morally credible soft power. It would strip the latter’s imperialist foreign policy of its leading pretext.
Netanyahu’s plan seems to be spreading out the conflict: so that they can advertise the war as asymmetrical against “Israel” to legitimize direct US intervention.
Netanyahu is desperately flailing to provoke large-scale retaliation from the Axis of Resistance to justify a US invasion of the region to rebalance power relations in favor of “Israel” and perpetuate Israeli security for a couple more decades.
Netanyahu acts in line with the outdated teachings of his neocon mentors of the early 2000s, but the pragmatics of the US oligarchy have since recognized the futility of savage militarism in West Asia and have since switched course for proxy warfare and color revolutions for being more efficient.
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Annually, on the sacred date of May 15, Palestinians solemnly commemorate the Nakba, a term that encapsulates the immense tragedy that befell them in 1948. This sorrowful event saw the forceful expulsion of approximately one million Palestinians from their ancestral lands, accompanied by the destruction or depopulation of over 500 Palestinian villages by Zionist terrorist militias. These actions paved the way for the establishment of the settler colonial state known as “Israel.”
May 15 serves as a yearly occasion for deep mourning, introspection, and remembrance of the unfathomable massacres and immense bloodshed suffered by countless Palestinians. Among the victims of this catastrophic chapter in history were nearly 950,000 Palestinians forcefully displaced from their original cities and towns. These individuals constituted a part of the greater population of 1.4 million Palestinians residing in 1,300 villages and cities.
As we observe this poignant anniversary, the Israeli occupation authorities persistently engage in a relentless campaign of ethnic cleansing and coerced expulsion against Palestinians. They brazenly deny Palestinians their national and human rights, including the right to establish an independent state with Al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its capital. Additionally, the right of Palestinian refugees to return to their cherished homes remains callously disregarded.
The Occupied Palestinian Territories presently bear witness to significant events and developments in their tireless resistance against the oppressive occupation, particularly in Jerusalem and the other occupied regions. The Israeli authorities relentlessly pursue settlement and Judaization schemes, aiming to efface the Palestinian Arab identity and distort the essence of the Palestinian struggle.
Within occupied Palestine, hardly a day passes without acts of resolute resistance targeting occupation soldiers, their patrols, and military installations. These acts range from courageous stabbings to daring vehicular attacks. As a consequence, Palestinian cities and refugee camps have transformed into bastions of resilience, harboring fierce fighters and individuals willing to sacrifice their lives for the just cause. This unyielding state of resistance has exerted tremendous pressure upon the occupying forces, depleting their resources and eroding their morale.
The valiant participants in these acts of resistance are revered as divinely guided soldiers on the battlefield. Some have embraced martyrdom, while many others have skillfully infiltrated various settlements nestled deep within the occupied territory. The collective efforts of the resistance forces have coalesced under a shared objective, giving rise to a formidable joint operations room that has profoundly impacted the enemy entity both militarily and psychologically.
Joint Revenge
A recent significant victory was achieved by the Al-Quds Brigades through their missile attacks that have effectively demolished multiple settlements and bolstered the determination of the Palestinian people. From Gaza to the West Bank, and reaching across the 1948 borders, the resolve of our Palestinian brothers and comrades in their resistance against the enemy remains unwavering, even in the land of Lebanon. Together, we march towards the ultimate goal of liberating Palestine.
Illustrative photo prepared by Al-Manar English Website of the Islamic Jihad martyred commanders.
The martyrdom of the esteemed resistance leaders in the face of the occupying entity has never been a mere setback for our noble cause. It is crucial to recognize that, were it not for the enemy’s profound apprehension regarding the consequences of our unwavering struggle, these valiant leaders would not have attained martyrdom. Furthermore, their martyrdom, alongside the resilience of those who continue to champion our cause, has laid the groundwork for the launch of the Al-Quds Brigades’ formidable missiles, devastating settlements strewn across the occupied territories.
Undeniably, deterrence is evolving and gaining momentum with each passing day, thanks to the unwavering commitment of the Mujahideen of the Al-Quds Brigades. Their transformative efforts have revolutionized the deterrence equation, transitioning from the resounding “Seif al-Quds” to the unifying “Unity of Battlefields,” and ultimately culminating in the resolute “Revenge of the Free.” This strategic shift has presented the enemy’s army with an unprecedented and complex challenge, marking a pivotal turning point in this protracted battle.
Moreover, the language employed by the enemy’s military authorities when referring to the Islamic Jihad movement underscores their palpable confusion. They are now acutely aware of the daunting prospect of confronting multiple resolute Palestinian factions simultaneously, thereby neglecting to acknowledge the arduous endeavors undertaken by these factions within the confines of the Joint Operations Room.
On the military front, the enemy’s formidable war machine has regrettably failed to achieve any significant qualitative leap within the context of this battle. Conversely, the Al-Quds Brigades’ missile capabilities have undergone remarkable expansion, bolstered further by the introduction of novel missile systems and refined targeting mechanisms, effectively amplifying the Israeli vulnerability.
The political sphere, too, bears the scars of this conflict, as the fragile government within the enemy entity faces an imminent disintegration and an exacerbating political crisis. The ensuing turmoil within the entity may conceivably necessitate the initiation of parliamentary elections, further intensifying the prevailing tumultuous climate.
Israelis protest against the Israeli government’s planned judicial overhaul, outside the US consulate in Tel Aviv, March 16, 2023.
Simultaneously, a groundswell of discontent among the Israeli populace has been witnessed, as a myriad of individuals who had hitherto abstained from confronting the enemy have now taken to the streets, vehemently rejecting the feeble policies of the enemy government. This significant upsurge in popular dissent poses a formidable challenge, engendering a perceptible sense of bewilderment among the Israeli ranks.
In summation, the battle known as “Revenge of the Free” has undeniably secured an indelible and noble victory for the broader Arab and Islamic nation. It transcends the realm of ordinary conflicts, embodying a profound quest for retribution, honoring the legacy of our revered leaders and innocent martyrs.
The unwavering resolve and indomitable spirit displayed by the Al-Quds Brigades throughout this arduous campaign have set in motion a transformative chapter in our tireless pursuit of emancipating Palestinian soil, ultimately paving the way for the inevitable downfall of the occupying entity known as “Israel.”
It is now abundantly clear that the Israeli enemy can no longer confront the Palestinian resistance in isolation. Consequently, a concerted and meticulously coordinated joint military effort, as epitomized by the Joint Operations Room, has emerged to ensure that the entity pays a substantial price for its transgressions. Thus, the resounding success of the “Operation Revenge of the Free” has unequivocally challenged the efficacy of the Zionist defensive apparatus, even acknowledged as futile by certain Israeli sources. Moreover, the operation has markedly broadened the scope of resistance targets, extending far beyond the confines of Beersheba and Tel Aviv and penetrating deeper into the heart of the occupied territories.
Nakba: A Trap to get Despaired or Unimpaired?
The Nakba persists in various forms and at an increasingly challenging pace. Nevertheless, the Palestinian people, who have shown resilience for over a century, continue to forge new means of resistance.
Especially today, as we closely follow or write about Palestine, it is crucial to grasp a fundamental lesson. Describing the “Revenge of the Free” campaign as a triumph is essential to our core issue. The achieved milestones must be acknowledged for what they truly are: a definitive and fresh victory over the Zionist enemy, shattering their resolve. It represents a new chapter in a comprehensive and zero-sum conflict between us and them, without succumbing to the trap of despair laid by the official Arab media, which speaks on behalf of Tel Aviv.
Without a doubt, the era of Zionist deterrence has reached its expiration, as the unified faction room harnesses its capabilities and weaponry to their utmost potential. Throughout the course of the conflict, they have struck at the very core of the Israeli entity, transcending the enemy’s intended shock through meticulously targeted assassinations of esteemed jihad leaders.
This resounding success stands as incontrovertible proof that we possess an abundance of untapped potential within our ranks, embodied by a new generation equipped with unwavering determination and indomitable fortitude.
The ill-conceived plans of the Netanyahu government have boomeranged, met with intelligent missiles, heart-rending losses, and a pervasive atmosphere of terror. Our hope finds solace in our own strength, our just cause, and the soaring spirit of our intrepid fighters that reaches towards the heavens.
Let us resound with the language of victory, aspirations, and innovative avenues to support our cause and our warriors. Let us explore ways to eternally honor our martyrs, heroes, and illustrious luminaries who have left an indelible mark upon our history. Let’s unite across battlefields!
Lebanon has become an oil and gas member country. The new understanding to demarcate the maritime border line with occupied Palestine is a milestone and the start of a new era that put the country on a new road towards prosperity and stability on many levels. More importantly, this remarkable achievement has been reached without any kind of normalization with the ‘Israeli’ enemy.
It is the first time in history that an Arab state gets its rights without bowing down to the ‘Israeli’ blackmail, threats, or diktats.
But how did that take place?
The resistance in Lebanon spearheaded by Hezbollah has given another proof about its ability to bring the yet another country.
Supported by the people who put their trust and have a full unshakable conviction about the resistance. Hezbollah leadership took a courageous step by setting a new formula against the enemy which states the following: If Lebanon cannot explore, exploit, and extract its gas resources, the enemy is not allowed to do so.
Hezbollah put its threat into effect by sending its drones over Karish platform to reflect the seriousness of its warning.
In addition to this, and in a harmonious and coordinated way with the state officials, namely President of the Republic General Michel Aoun, House Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati, and their respective teams, the resistance represented by Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has been able to give Lebanon another remarkable victory which brought the ‘Israeli’ enemy to its knees.
This event has given an exemplary model about the defensive strategy that Lebanon could reach and adopt to defend the country and act as a deterrent force against any ‘Israeli’ aggression.
This defensive strategy has long been under the light, and is always under focus. Many parties in Lebanon have called for an open discussion to deliberate over this matter. Now we have a real embodiment and a vivid example that no one can deny about the result of coordination that can take place to ensure not only Lebanon’s protection and liberation, but also its full sovereignty over its land, sea, and all its natural resources.
Needless to say, this kind of coordination will definitely act as a safety valve and as a guarantee for Lebanon and the Lebanese against any foreign threat, aggression, or intimidation, especially from the ‘Israeli’ enemy side which has a lengthy history of aggressions.
It is the duty of the Lebanese from every sect and confession to perceive this new lesson. To understand the importance of this achievement, they should all learn how to appreciate it, value it and do everything possible to support and preserve it.
This is a successful golden formula that has no otherwise so far. It proved its efficiency in the past and present, and will definitely protect Lebanon and its people in the future.
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The 14th of August 2006 observes the 16th anniversary of the divine victory that was achieved after the thirty-three-day war between the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon and the ‘Israeli’ occupation forces.
Every year, most of the Lebanese, along with many millions of Arabs, Muslims, and free people, celebrate the event all over the world.
Ever since this victory materialized, the ‘Israelis’ have been studying the impact of their shameful defeat. The strategic consequences that followed made a major shift and came to put the temporary ‘Israeli’ entity into a completely different situation at a very fragile and vulnerable time. On the contrary, the Islamic Resistance has become a remarkable major force in Lebanon and the region and one of the most important non-state players in the whole world.
The Islamic Resistance did not only achieve a victory but also presented itself as a role model that could be emulated in the region and the entire world.
More importantly, since its advent, Hezbollah has been able to make new equations against the ‘Israeli’ enemy. This new victory presented the party as a major force in Lebanon and the region that is capable of making the achievements at every remarkable event.
The July War victory by Hezbollah ushered in a new era as it has consolidated Hezbollah’s role and capability as one of the major strategic equation-makers in Lebanon and the Arab world against the ‘Israeli’ enemy.
The first equation Hezbollah achieved through the resistance was the equation of deterrence against the enemy hostilities and aggressions. This equation has been achieved since the mid-eighties.
The second equation was that of protection after the two wars in the nineties, namely the July 1993 War that the enemy called it “Operation Accountability,” and the April 1996 War, which the ‘Israelis’ called “Grapes of Wrath” war. Hezbollah succeeded in formulating a very protective deterrent equation which enabled the party to launch retaliatory attacks against the enemies in case of targeting the civilians.
The third equation the party achieved had been developed over the years starting by the day of liberation on the 25th of May 2000 until the year 2006. It was an equation that we might be able to call “balance of horror.”
The ‘Israelis’ feared attacking Lebanon or targeting the civilians for six years until 2006, the year that witnessed the thirty-three-day July war. This war was destined to end with a divine victory on Lebanon’s side.
Ever since, Hezbollah has been accumulating military power, technical efficiency, and unrivaled expertise about the ‘Israelis.’ For their part, the ‘Israelis’ have admitted that Hezbollah is not only a strategic threat for their entity, but also an existential one.
Nowadays and after all this time, and after the resistance has been able to live up to all the challenges, Hezbollah went into another complicated and more dangerous war against the takfiris in Syria and was able to win another divine victory against the takfiris in 2017 in what came to be known as the second liberation.
بات ثابتاً أن حركة حماس لم تشترك في الردّ العسكري على العدوان الإسرائيلي على غزة الذي استهدف مواقع وقيادات حركة الجهاد الإسلاميّ وجناحها العسكريّ سرايا القدس، وسقط خلالها عدد من المدنيين، كما بات ثابتاً أن حركة حماس كانت على تنسيق تام مع حركة الجهاد خلال أيام وساعات المواجهة، وأنها كانت تتابع مجريات المواجهة وتطمئن إلى ثبات معادلاتها، وتقدّم التغطية السياسية اللازمة للجهاد للظهور كممثل للإجماع الفلسطيني المقاوم، الذي تعبر عنه غرفة العمليات المشتركة، وقد قدّمت هذه المواجهة نموذجاً جديداً عن تقاسم أدوار بين الفصيلين الأساسيين في المقاومة، حماس والجهاد، وأنتجت معادلات تستحق القراءة والنقاش، لكن نقاش بقاء حماس خارج المواجهة العملية والميدانية تحول إلى الاعتبارات العاطفية، سواء بخلفية مواقف مسبقة من حماس على خلفية موقفها من الحرب على سورية، أو بخلفية الرغبة برؤية المقاومة موحّدة في الميدان، وبحكم ما تمثله حماس تقديم مزيد من أسباب القوة التي تنزل بالاحتلال المزيد من الخسائر والأذى، وترفع سقف المنجزات في نهاية الجولة، لكن هذه المخاوف التي تصل حد التشكيك وتفترض أن ما وراء هذه الجولة هو تفاهمات استراتيجية ليست مطروحة أصلاً لدى الجانب الإسرائيلي، لا مع السلطة الفلسطينية ولا مع حماس، ولا مع أي فلسطيني، أو التمنيات التي تصل حد تخيّل أن هذه الجولة هي آخر الحروب بين المقاومة والاحتلال وسيتقرر على اساس معادلات النار والسياسة فيها مستقبل الحرب. وهذا منافٍ للواقع الذي يحتمل جولات وجولات قبل بلوغ لحظة المنازلة الشاملة، ويفترض ابتكار أشكال من العمل والخطط التي تتيح تعزيز معادلات الردع وتصليب بنية المقاومة.
النقاش العقلاني يجب أن يتحرّر من أية خلفية مسبقة وأن يناقش المشهد بما هو عليه، في المقدّمات والسياق والنتائج. ففي المقدمات من الواضح أن قرار العدوان الإسرائيلي استند إلى ثنائية قوامها، من جهة تبلور ملف أمني استخباري يتيح له تقدير إمكانية توجيه ضربة قاصمة لحركة الجهاد وقدرتها الصاروخية، تشارك في تكوينها مع أجهزة مخابرات عربية وأوروبية وأميركية، ومن جهة مقابلة إلى فرضية وضع معادلة استهداف غزة ومنشآتها المدنية والحكومية وأبراجها السكنية ومستشفياتها ومدارسها في كفة ومشاركة حماس في المواجهة في كفة ثانية. ومع الضربة الأولى التي نتج عنها اغتيال القائد في سرايا القدس تيسير الجعبري، أعلن الاحتلال عن أهدافه وأوصل الرسالة إلى حماس عبر الأقنية العربية التي يتم عبرها التواصل الأمني والسياسي والمالي، وإذا أردنا التحرّر من البعد العاطفي في القراءة، ووضعنا جانباً ما يسود قواعد الفريقين من مشاعر العتب والتباري والتنافس، نستطيع القول إن قيادات الجهاد وحماس توافقت على آلية في إدارة الحرب، عبّر عنها بيان غرفة العمليات المشتركة من جهة، وقيام الجهاد بتصدّر المواجهة وتحمل تبعاتها الرئيسية من جهة موازية، على قاعدة أنه في أية لحظة تبدو أعباء المواجهة فوق طاقة الجهاد منفردة، فلن تترك حماس الحرب تذهب نحو منح الاحتلال فرصة تحقيق نصر، ستدفع هي وكل قوى المقاومة أثمانه بصورة لا قدرة لأحد على تحمّلها.
لقد كنا أمام مشهد غير مألوف، حيث تسنى للجهاد، من جهة التحرّر من أعباء حملة تدميرية شاملة تستهدف غزة وتحملها تبعاتها أمام الشعب الفلسطيني، وهو مكسب كبير يريح قيادة المقاومة في خوض حرب استنزاف طويلة، لكن شرطه وثمنه أن تبقى حماس خارج القتال، ومن جهة موازية وفّر ذلك لقيادة الجهاد حرية أكبر في قبول ورفض عروض وقف النار وشروطها وموعدها، بعد أن تحرّرت من شراكة حماس في القرار، وما يحمله من تأثر حماس بضغوط لا تقيم لها الجهاد اعتباراً، وشرط الإفادة من هاتين الميزتين هو أن تتمكّن الجهاد من النهوض منفردة بأعباء تثبيت معادلات الردع، رغم آلام الضربة الأولى ومفاجأتها، وما سيليها من ضربات مشابهة. وكان هذا هو التحدي الذي نهضت به الجهاد أيما نهوض، بصورة أبهرت الأعداء والأصدقاء في الوقت ذاته، حيث انتظمت التشكيلات العسكرية، والصاروخية منها خصوصاً التي تعمل تحت قيادة الشهيدين القائدين تيسير الجعبري وخالد منصور، وأدّت مهامها بصورة غير قابلة للتخيل، سواء في مهارة إدارة النيران وتدرجها، أو في إظهار نظام السيطرة والقيادة في وجبات صاروخية جماعية يستحيل إطلاقها بدون قيادة مركزية مسيطرة بالكامل على منصات الإطلاق، خصوصاً في اليوم الثالث عندما بدا ان الاحتلال يريد وقف الجولة وإنهاءها عند حدود ما اعتقد أنها إنجازاته.
في الحصيلة ثبتت معادلة أراد الاحتلال كسرها، ولأجل كسرها كانت خطة الاستفراد للجهاد واغتيال قادتها، وهي معادلة استهداف العمق الإسرائيلي بصواريخ المقاومة بصورة تعطّل دورة الحياة فيها، وعندما حصل ذلك ظهر الاغتيال مجرد انتقام لا وظيفة عملياتية له ولا مردود عسكرياً يترتب عليه، ومثله بد أن تحييد حماس مجرد توفير فرصة لتحييد المدنيين والمنشآت المدنية تخفف الأعباء عن كاهل الجهاد، وفي الحصيلة، بعيداً عن نتائج الالتزام الإسرائيلي باتفاق وقف إطلاق النار لجهة مصير الأسرى من الضفة الغربية ووحدة الساحات، صارت الصورة الجديدة الناتجة عن هذه الجولة، تقوم على معادلة ردع جديدة مزدوجة مختلفة، تمتلك عبر شقها الأول حركة الجهاد فرصة قيادة المقاومة في الضفة والقدس والأرض المحتلة عام 48 تحت شعار وحدة الساحات، وتستطيع حمايتها عبر تكرار معادلة الردع التي فرضتها منفردة في هذه الجولة، وبالتوازي شقّ ثانٍ تمتلكه حماس عنوانه أن حماس سوف تتدخل في أية مواجهة إذا تم المساس بالمنشآت المدنية والمدنيين في أية مواجهة بين الاحتلال والجهاد على خلفية مشروع المقاومة ووحدة الساحات، وصولاً لأن تتحمل حماس مسؤولية وضع معادلة الردع التي تمتلكها في كفة مقابل المطالبة بفك الحصار وتبادل الأسرى، باعتبارها مرجعية غزة والمسؤولة عن توفير الحد الأدنى من شروط الحياة فيها.
تكامل في الأدوار ولد من رحم التحدّي الذي فرضه الاحتلال على قوى المقاومة، وحولته قوى المقاومة إلى فرصة سترافق المواجهات المقبلة وتترك بصماتها على الإنجازات المقبلة.
As US President Joe Biden continues his visit to the region, it seems that he hasn’t succeeded in assuring “Israeli” fears from Hezbollah.
According to “Israeli” media, Hezbollah is now believed to have upgraded abilities, making a war now pricier for “Israel”.
“Recent events show that Hezbollah is shoring up its visibility toward ‘Israel’, demonstrating a chip in the deterrence that has existed for over a decade. There is a change in Hezbollah’s policy. They are showing more presence on the border, being more provocative and in general showing more willingness to go back to the reality that existed before 2006,” said Sarit Zehavi, a former “Israeli” military intelligence officer and founder of the Alma Research and Education Center.
“‘Israel’ has yet to make the decision to initiate a major military offensive against the armament of Hezbollah,” said Zehavi.
For his part, Dr. Eyal Pinko, an “Israeli” professor at “Bar-Ilan” University’s Political Studies Department and an expert on military strategy and intelligence warned that “The average Hezbollah soldier is much more experienced and trained than the average ‘Israeli’ soldier. Hezbollah is a highly organized army. ‘Israel’ cannot afford a war with Hezbollah; the losses will be immense.”
“Hezbollah’s firepower is highly significant; it is not clear at all that ‘Israel’ will be able to handle it,” said Pinko, noting that “Its ability to use its force is not harmed, but its legitimacy to do so is reduced.”
Meanwhile, the “Jerusalem Post” cautioned that Hezbollah is most dangerous and immediate enemy to “Israel”. “Israeli” intelligence officers estimate Hezbollah has accumulated around 150,000 unguided rockets, with Iranian assistance.
“The multilayered ‘Israeli’ air systems, considered to be highly sophisticated, will likely have difficulty fending off barrages of thousands of rockets every day in the event of a war with Hezbollah,” the report said, pointing out that “The militant organization is also believed to have improved its precision missile abilities in recent years. ‘Israel’s’ air force is believed to be behind hundreds of strikes that have targeted this project. Yet the success appears to be limited, and the huge arsenal of rockets is also widely believed to be intact.”
لو تخيّلنا مشهداً انتخابياً طبيعياً في لبنان بعد الانهيار المالي والاقتصادي وثورة 17 تشرين، لكان المنطقي أن نتوقع أن النقاش الأساسي في البلد يدور حول الخيارات والبرامج الاقتصادية والمالية والاجتماعية، نحو عقد اجتماعيّ جديد وسياسة اقتصادية ومالية جديدة، وأن نتوقع تراجع الجدل حول القضايا التي كانت تطفو على السطح وهي ليست أولويات اللبنانيين، كنقاش جنس الملائكة، فلا إلغاء الطائفية وإقرار الزواج المدني يتمان بأغلبية نيابية، ولا تقرير مستقبل سلاح المقاومة تحسمه أغلبية نيابية، وليس هناك بالأصل أغلبية لبنانية علمانية كاسحة تمنح الأمل لدعاة الدولة المدنية لينقلوا الخلاف حولها إلى مرتبة الأولوية في الاستحقاق الانتخابي. ولا لدى مناوئي سلاح المقاومة مثل هذه الأغلبية ليشجعهم الأمل بالفوز الفئوي لمشروعهم على نقل الأمر إلى صدارة الأولويات. ولا البديل الوطني المتمثل بجيش قوي قادر جاهز لتولي حماية لبنان، أو يمكن أن يجهز بفترة وجيزة في ظل الفيتو المانع لتسليح الجيش اللبناني بأسلحة نوعيّة، بحيث يصير نقل هذه العناوين الى مرتبة الأولويات الانتخابية مجرد كيد سياسي بلا طائل، أو تخديم لرغبة خارجية بتسجيل نقاط على المقاومة.
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غاب البرنامج الاقتصادي والمالي عن الأولويات، وصار سلاح المقاومة عنوان الاصطفاف الذي يقود الاستحقاق الانتخابي، والقوى التي خرجت من ساحات 17 تشرين صارت ضمن هذا الاصطفاف على جبهة المناوئين لسلاح المقاومة، وحشد السفراء أموالهم وتصريحاتهم ووسائل الإعلام التي يمولونها لجعل هذا العنوان جامعاً لتشكيلات كان يبدو مستحيلاً أن تجتمع، وأبعد الرئيس سعد الحريري عن المشهد السياسي والانتخابي لمجرد انه اقترح بدلاً من المواجهة مع سلاح المقاومة، ربط النزاع معها حوله، وهو المنطق الأقرب واقعياً لكل مناوئ للمقاومة يفكر بوضع البلد بعقل سياسي لا مخابراتي، وصار الانتخاب مجرد استفتاء يراد منه تشكيل محطة اختبارية لقياس نتائج حملة الضغوط التي تعرضت لها بيئة المقاومة، وقراءة نتائج الحصار الذي فرض عليها، لأن الخارج الذي بات هو مدير الحملة الانتخابية ضد المقاومة بوضوح يعرف ان نيل الأغلبية ضدها لا يفيده في تغيير موازين القوى الفعلية ضدها، لكنه يفيده في الإجابة عن سؤال، هل ثمة جدوى من مواصلة الضغوط والحصار؟ وهل يفعلان فعلهما في إنشاء بيئة لبنانية معادلة لها يمكن البناء عليها، وهل يمكن الرهان عليهما لتفكيك التأييد الذي تناله في بيئتها؟
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أما وقد صار الأمر كذلك، فماذا يفعل من يرغب بالتصويت لصالح التغيير في نظام فاشل سياسياً واقتصادياً ومالياً، حتى الانهيار، والمقاومة لم ولن تضع ثقلها وفائض قوتها لتلبية رغبته بإنجاز هذا التغيير بالقوة، وحجتها في ذلك الحرص على السلم الأهلي وخشيتها من الفتنة. وهو يدرك أن خياره الأول الذي كان خلال أيام الحماسة بعد 17 تشرين شبه محسوم في وجدانه، بالتصويت لقوى تغييرية، قد بدأت تشوبه الشكوك وهو يرى هذه القوى قد اصطفت تحت لواء خطاب العداء للمقاومة، وهو يعلم أن لا سبب لبنانياً لذلك، ولا مبرر وفق أولوية مواجهة قوى النظام أن تكون المقاومة العدو الأول، والمكونات التاريخية للنظام قد بدلت ثوبها وصارت قوى ثورة وتغيير. فيسقط هذا الخيار بالضربة القاضية، وهو يرى مَن يسمون أنفسهم دعاة ثورة وتغيير قد تحولوا إلى مجرد أبواق تصطف وراء مومياءات النظام القديم، وتقدم التبريرات لتبييض سياسي يشبه تبييض الأموال، في نظرية الحلف السيادي، الذي لا تشغل باله أدوار السفراء في رعاية نشاطاته وحملاته.
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هنا يتقدم الخيار الثاني الذي يتبادر لذهن هذا المؤمن بالتغيير، والذي لا يرى العداء للمقاومة مبرراً، ولا جعل البحث بسلاحها أولوية، وأغلب هؤلاء لم يروا من هذا السلاح إلا التحرير والحماية، وينتمي كثير منهم إلى بيئتها التاريخية. والخيار الثاني هو عدم المشاركة بالانتخابات. وهنا تنطرح الإشكالية، فهو يعلم أن في لبنان معادلة ونظام، معادلة حررت وحمت وتمنع الحرب الأهلية، ونظام فاسد فاشل، والمواجهة الدائرة هي حول تغيير المعادلة لجهة كسرها بحجة تغيير النظام، وهو كتغييري معني بأن يمنع سرقة هويته وتجييرها لأعداء المعادلة الذين ينتمي أغلبهم للنظام، أو الحالمين بدخول جنته باسم التغيير، وهو معني أكثر إذا لم يكن التغيير الى الأفضل ممكناً أن يمنع التغيير الى الأسوأ. وهو يعلم أن نيل خصوم المقاومة للأغلبية وتشكيلهم حكومة تملك هذه الأغلبية مشروع حرب أهلية يهدد بتخريب كل الإيجابيات والمكاسب التي تحققت ما بعد الطائف، لصالح تعزيز السلبيات التي حملتها تلك المرحلة، من التحرير الى حماية البلد بمعادلة المقاومة بوجه الأطماع الاسرائيلية إلى تحصين السلم الأهلي وفق معادلة أن من يقدر عليها لا يريدها، فلا خوف إن أرادها من لا يقدر عليها، لكن نيل الأغلبية وضم مقدرات الدولة لمن يريدها سيجعله يتوهم أنه قادر عليها.
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عند عتبة التفكير بالخيار الثالث وهو المشاركة بالانتخابات والتصويت للوائح المقاومة، تلمع فكرتان، الأولى تشجع على المشاركة والثانية تدعو للتردد والتبصر. الأول هو أنه يراقب هذا الحماس الخارجي للتصويت ضد المقاومة، والاهتمام بقراءة نتائج التصويت لمعرفة ما اذا كانت خيارات مواصلة الضغوط والحصار ذات جدوى، وهو كمواطن لبنانيّ أولاً صاحب مصلحة بوقف الضغوط والحصار وإيصال أصحابها باليأس، وهو معني أن يقول بأن المقاومة التي يعتب عليها في عناوين داخلية، سواء كان مصيباً أم مخطئاً، وسواء كانت حجتها في مخالفته صحيحة أم خطأ، هي مقاومة تحظى بكل الدعم والتأييد شعبياً في ما تمثله المعادلة، أما الثانية فهي شعوره بالإحباط تجاه مستقبل البلد، بلا كهرباء بلا ودائع بلا ليرة، فما جدوى الدخول بلعبة معلوم سلفاً أنها مجرد تفليسة ميؤوس منها؟
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هنا يستمع هذا التغييري الى آخر معادلات السيد حسن نصرالله، التي تضمنت وضع معادلة الردع في كفة ومستقبل ثروات النفط والغاز في كفة، واعتبار هذه الثروات بوليصة تأمين كافية لانتشال لبنان من قعر الانهيار ورد الاعتبار لودائع الناس وللعملة الوطنية، وإطلاق النهوض وحل مشكلات الكهرباء، فهل يصدق الوعد؟
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تجربته تقول إن السيد هو سيد الوعد الصادق، وهو الذي سبق في حملات انتخابية سابقة أن قال لا تنتخبونا طلباً للخدمات، وإن كانت همكم فنحن لن نفيدكم، فيستحيل أن يكون وراء كلامه مجرد حملة انتخابية. فغداً تنتهي الانتخابات ويبقى وعد السيد، فيقرر المشاركة والتصويت، ومن باب التحفظ يقول سأنتخب اللائحة ولكنني سأقرأ الأسماء بتمعن، وان لم أجد اسماً يقنعني فلن اضع صوتاً تفضيلياً.
Beirut – With Palestinians marking the holy month of Ramadan, tensions rise in al-Aqsa Mosque in occupied al-Qud’s [Jerusalem], as “Israeli” soldiers raided the holy site in a barbaric attitude against peaceful Palestinians who were performing daily prayers.
Nothing is worse than the scene of an occupying soldier hammering a Palestinian man with a baton in front of his son. As the father was trying to hide the pain, the son had to run away with a terrible memory engraved in his mind.
Zionist soldiers arrested dozens of worshipers, targeting young men and women. The elderly were not spared; they were stone-heartedly beaten. As a result, more than 400 Palestinians had been arrested and 152 others injured during the raids.
Though, Palestinians have not been sitting lazily. They have launched several lone-wolf operations against the “Israeli” occupation regime, army and police.
On the other hand, resistance groups in Gaza delivered stern warnings to the “Israeli” entity and called for general mobilization against the violence on al-Aqsa.
To turn words into actions, the Palestinian resistance on Monday [April 18] fired several rockets on “Israeli” settlements from Gaza. The “Israeli” Occupation Forces [IOF] responded by launching several raids targeting the strip.
A new deterrence equation
The latest development in the Palestinian arena between the “Israeli” entity and the resistance groups was a game changer.
To begin with, it was the Palestinian resistance who took the first step in the confrontation. They launched a rocket attack in response to the entity’s crimes at the al-Aqsa Mosque. It is worth mentioning that this measure on behalf of the Palestinian side was first of its kind in the sense that it is usually the IOF who always strikes first.
Secondly, the most recent twist to the long-standing narrative is the Resistance’s response to the “Israeli” raids on the Gaza Strip. It was the first Palestinian military response of its kind to take place. The resistance groups used the newly released “Strela-2” air defense system to target an “Israeli” aircraft, revealing a new deterrence equation with the Zionist entity. This is a huge turning point in the “Israeli”-Palestinian battle as the most effective weapon in the hands of the entity will be at high risk of failure to deter Palestinian missiles.
Accordingly, the Al-Aqsa Mosque is the third holiest site in the Muslim world. Any escalation from the “Israeli” regime against the Holy Mosque might lead to a new level of response from the resistance groups in Gaza, and maybe it will lead to a scenario where the whole Axis of Resistance be present in a battle that will change the face of history.
During their long-lasting battle with the “Israeli” apartheid entity, Palestinians have always assured that the Zionist regime may countlessly trespass al-Aqsa Mosque, but this will never stop them from working to achieve a belief that someday the Holy Mosque will be liberated from its oppressors.
ـ مسار العملية العسكرية يدلّ بوضوح إلى أنّ النتيجة ستكون في منتهى السلبية للنظام القائم في أوكرانيا ومن خلال ذلك للحلف الأطلسي التي قد تكون ضُربت مصداقيته ضربة قاضية ـ كشفت جائحة كورونا التبعية للمواد الأساسية الموجودة في كلّ من روسيا والصين… والاتحاد الأوروبي منكشف تجاه روسيا في موضوع الطاقة ولا يستطيع الاستغناء عنها رغم التصريحات المعاكسة
لا يمكن أن نتصوّر تداعيات المواجهة المفتوحة بين روسيا والحلف الأطلسي في أوكرانيا دون التوقف على الأسباب. فهذه الأسباب التي دفعت إلى المواجهة هي التي ستلقي بظلالها على المشهد العالمي والإقليمي. فجوهر الصراع هو صراع بين مذهبين في منظومة واحدة. المنظومة هي الرأس المالية والمذهبان هما أولا الرأس المالية الريعية المالية التي تقوده الولايات المتحدة والحلف الأطلسي وثانياً الرأس المالية الإنتاجية التي تتماهى مع الاقتصاد الموجه التي تقوده الكتلة الأوراسية بقيادة روسيا والصين.
بهذا التعريف للمواجهة نضمّ الأبعاد الجيوسياسية والدوافع التوسعية لدى المحور الأطلسي قابلتها الهواجس الأمنية لروسيا والصين. وفي الإطار الأوسع للمواجهة هناك نموذجان من داخل العائلة الواحدة يتنافسان على قيادة العالم والنموذج الذي تتبناه الولايات المتحدة يخسر لصالح النموذج الآخر.
يبقى علينا أن نستشرف ماذا بعد؟ والإجابة تتوقف على مسار العملية العسكرية القائمة في أوكرانيا ونهايتها. فالحلف الأطلسي وخاصة الولايات المتحدة غير متحمّسة على إنهاء الصراع بل على تمديده بهدف استنزاف روسيا عسكرياً واقتصادياً وفرض العزلة الدولية عليها. الهدف الأميركي بات واضحاً وهو تغيير النظام القائم في روسيا.
لكن الرياح الروسية لم تجر كما اشتهت السفن الأطلسية والأميركية. فمسار العملية العسكرية يدلّ بوضوح على أنّ النتيجة ستكون في منتهى السلبية للنظام القائم في أوكرانيا ومن خلال ذلك للحلف الأطلسي التي قد تكون ضُربت مصداقيته ضربة قاضية. فكيف ستكون تداعيات ذلك المسار على العالم بشكل عام والإقليم والمشهد العربي بشكل خاص؟
في هذه النقطة بالذات نريد أن نؤكّد أن قدرة روسيا على مواجهة الغرب لم تكن لتحصل لولا الصمود العربي خاصة في محور المقاومة. فالمقاومة في العراق أفشلت المشروع الأميركي واستنزفت قدراته بينما كانت روسيا تعيد بناء قواها العسكرية والاقتصادية. كما أنّ صمود المقاومة في لبنان منع تحقيق مشروع الشرق الأوسط الجديد بينما روسيا كانت أيضاً في إطار استعادة القدرات. كما أنّ صمود سورية في مواجهة العدوان الكوني ساهم في تعزيز الثقة بأنّ الغرب ليس قدراً على العالم. كما أنّ صمود المقاومة في فلسطين أفشل مشروع صفقة القرن والاتفاقات الابراهيمية وأنّ صمود اليمن ساهم في إعادة رسم الخارطة السياسية للأمن الإقليمي خارج النفوذ الأميركي. فهذا الدور العربي مكّن كلّ من روسيا والصين وحتى الجمهورية الإسلامية في إيران من تعزيز قدراتها وترسيخ تضمانها بل تحالفها والآن نرى روسيا تقف بوجه الهجمة الأطلسية في أوروبا الشرقية وتهزمها نيابة عن العالم. فلا بد للنظام العربي ان يتأثر بكلّ ذلك خاصة أنّ الجزء الخارج عن سيطرة ذلك النظام استطاع أن يقلب المعادلات التقليدية في الإقليم وبالتالي في العالم. هناك معادلة جيوسياسية بسيطة. من يريد السيطرة على العالم عليه أن يسيطر على الجزيرة الأوراسية لما لها من موارد وإمكانيات. ومن يريد أن يسيطر على تلك الجزيرة فالبوّابة لها هي المشرق بشكل عام والمشرق العربي بشكل خاص. هنا يبرز البعد الاستراتيجي لمحور المقاومة وما يمثله من دور في إعادة رسم التوازنات الدولية.
صحيح أنّ العملية العسكرية لم تضع أوزارها بعد عند إعداد هذا التقرير لكن هناك نتائج واضحة على الصعيد الدولي وبطبيعة الحال على الصعيد الإقليمي والعربي. أولى النتائج هو شبه إجماع على أنّ القوّامة الأميركية والأطلسية لم تعد كما كانت عليه. صحيح أنّ الولايات المتحدة لن تستسلم بسهولة إلى الواقع الجديد لكن ليس باستطاعتها تغيير موازين القوة والعوامل التي أدّت إلى ذلك التراجع. فهذه العوامل داخلية بالدرجة الأولى كما أنها خارجية تعود إلى التخطيط البعيد المدى الذي قامت بتنفيذه دول المحور الرافض للهيمنة الأطلسية والأميركية. فتقييم المشهد الداخلي لا يوحي بأن هناك إمكانية في تعديل الميزان. فليس هناك جهوزية عسكرية أميركية لمواجهة شاملة وحاسمة لكل من روسيا والصين كما أن قدرة اللجوء إلى الحرب بالوكالة عنها أصبحت شبه معدومة. فالتصدّعات داخل الحلف الأطلسي والاتحاد الأوروبي لا توحي بإمكانية حشد قوّات عسكرية تستطيع مواجهة روسيا وذلك رغم الكلام العالي النبرة لمكوّنات الحلف الاطلسي. ليس هناك من استعداد للتضحية في سبيل أوكرانيا. فالخطة هي فقط الاستنزاف عبر تحفيز الأوكرانيين والمرتزقة من الأوروبيين على مواجهة الالة العسكرية الروسية.
كذلك الأمر على الصعيد الاقتصادي حيث كشفت جائحة كورونا التبعية للمواد الأساسية الموجودة في كلّ من روسيا والصين. والاتحاد الأوروبي منكشف تجاه روسيا في موضوع الطاقة ولا يستطيع الاستغناء عنها رغم التصريحات المعاكسة لذلك. فالبديل للغاز الروسي هو الغاز الأميركي بأسعار مرتفعة تصل إلى أكثر من عشر أضعاف سعر الغاز الروسي ناهيك عن عدم وجود تجهيزات لاستيراد الغاز الأميركي قبل ثلاث سنوات على أحسن تقدير. فماذا تستطيع ان تفعل الدول الأوروبية طيلة الفترة غير الدخول في انكماش كبير أن لم يكن في كساد أكبر مما كان في الثلاثينات من القرن الماضي؟
أما على الصعيد المالي لن تستطيع الولايات المتحدة وحلفاؤها من منع قيام أنظمة مدفوعات دولية لا ترتكز إلى الدولار. كما أن التعامل بالدولار بدأ بالتراجع في دول واقتصادات وازنة كالصين والهند وروسيا على سبيل المثال. حتى بعض الدول العربية التابعة للقرار الأميركي بدأت تفكّر جدّيا بالتعامل مع الروبل الروسي واليوان الصين والروبية الهندية.
بناء على ذلك نستطيع أن نقول إن نتائج العملية العسكرية الروسية في أوكرانيا ستكرّس تراجع دور الولايات المتحدة وأوروبا في الهيمنة على مقدرات العالم.
اما النتيجة الثانية لذلك التراجع هو واقعياً بروز نظام دولي جديد متعدد القطبية يرتكز إلى القانون الدولي وقرارات مجلس الأمن واحكام المحكمة الدولية إضافة إلى الاتفاقات والمعاهدات بينما الطرح الأميركي ومعه الأوروبي هو نظام «أحكام قيم» لا قاعدة قانونية لها وملتبسة في أحسن الأحوال ولا تعترف بسيادة الدول. وهذا النظام سيشهد تجاذبا بين الدول التي تريد الخروج من الهيمنة الأميركية وبين الدول التي لا تستطيع الخروج عنها وعددها يتقلّص يوما بعد يوم ولن يضم في آخر المطاف إلاّ الحلف الانكلوساكسوني، أي الولايات المتحدة والمملكة المتحدة وأستراليا وكندا وربما نيوزيلاندا. أما أوروبا الغربية فهي عدة أقسام: المحور الألماني الفرنسي الذي يقود الاتحاد الأوروبي، دول أطراف أوروبا، ودول أوروبا الشرقية. ليس هناك من انسجام في المواقف داخل هذه الكتل الثلاث لأسباب عديدة تعود منها للتاريخ ومنها لبنيتها السياسية والاقتصادية لا وقت لنا شرحها. ما يهمنا هو أن عدم الانسجام سيحدّ من فعّالية موقف موحد. ولذلك سنرى أوروبا في تجاذب بين النظام المبني على القانون الدولي والمعاهدات وقرارات المحكمة الدولية وطبعا قرارات مجلس الأمن.
في ذلك السياق لا نستبعد إعادة النظر في تركيبة مجلس الأمن حيث الدول صاحبة حق النقض هي خمس فقط بينما قد تدخل إليه دول كالهند والبرازيل وجنوب إفريقيا ودولة عربية بالتداول مع الدول العربية وحتى الجمهورية الإسلامية في إيران. كما نتوقع تقليص دور ونفوذ الولايات المتحدة في المؤسسات العاملة والتابعة للمنظمة الدولية التي أصبحت ذراعا للسياسة الخارجية الأميركية. فهناك دول وازنة تستطيع أن تملأ الفراغ المالي الذي سينتج عن تخفيض مساهمة الولايات المتحدة في تمويل المؤسسة وربما خروجها من المنظمة ككل. لن يحصل ذلك في المنظور القريب بل ربما في فترة لا تتجاوز نهاية هذا العقد من الألفية الثالثة. كما أن منظمة الأمم المتحدة المعدّلة ستعمل بتنسيق واسع مع المنظمات الإقليمية وخاصة الآسيوية كمنظومة شانغهاي على سبيل المثال وليس الحصر. هذا يعني أن القضايا الدولية ستعالج من باب النظر بمصالح الجميع وعلى قاعدة رابح رابح وليس على قاعدة اللعبة الصفرية التي تفرضها والولايات المتحدة.
النتيجة الثالثة هو التحوّل إلى نظام اقتصادي عالمي جديد مبني على تكامل المصالح وليس على تصارعها أو تنافسها. فدول الجنوب الإجمالي أي كل الدول الإفريقية وأميركا اللاتينية والدول الاسيوية غير الصين والهند ستجد في العلاقات الدولية ما يساعدها على نهوضها والحفاظ على سيادتها بينما النظام الاقتصادي القائم مبني على تبعية الاطراف للمركز الذي هو الغرب بشكل عام والولايات المتحدة بشكل خاص وعلى حساب مصالح تلك الدول.
النتيجة الرابعة هي تراجع دور الدولار في المنظومة المالية الدولية. فعملات أخرى كالروبل الروسي واليوان الصيني والروبية الهندية وفيما بعد الراند الإفريقي الجنوبي ستكون ركيزة الاحتياطات النقدية الدولية كما أن تعاظم التعاطي بالعملات الوطنية سيخفّض الطلب على الدولار ليصبح عملة من بين العملات وليست أداة لتمويل الحروب والهيمنة على العالم.
النتيجة الخامسة تعود إلى تراجع المكانة الصناعية الأوروبية. فرغبة قياداتها في التخلّي عن الغاز الروسي سيقضي على القدرة التنافسية الأوروبية ما يجعل الدول الأوروبية تدخل مرحلة تفكيك التصنيع (de industrialization) للدخول في مرحلة ما بعد التصنيع (post industrialization) فتصبح تابعة لمراكز التصنيع الفعلية في دول الجنوب الإجمالي.
هذه النتائج لن تأتي بسرعة ولكن مسارها واضح وحتمي إذا ما كانت الإرادة الجماعية تهدف إلى تحقيق الاستقرار والأمن. فلا بد من التعديلات في المؤسسات الدولية ولا بد من تعديلات في التعاطي والعلاقات ولا بد من ترسيخ قاعدة الرابح رابح ونبذ قاعدة اللعبة الصفرية. وما يساعد على تحقيق ذلك موازين القوّة الجديدة التي تظهرها العملية العسكرية في أوكرانيا والتحالف الروسي الصيني ونهوض الكتلة الاوراسية وتعزيز منظومة البريكس.
لكن إلى أن تحصل تلك التحوّلات فالعالم دخل فعليا في مرحلة ترقّب ومراجعات في العلاقات حيث العديد من الدول تقوم بتقييم النتائج المرتقبة من العملية العسكرية في أوكرانيا. لذلك سنشهد توترات عديدة في الأسواق العالمية في الطاقة والمواد الغذائية وسلسلة المورّدين إلى أن تستقر الأمور وتستسلم الولايات المتحدة للوقائع الجديدة. هنا تكمن المشكلة لان حالة الانكار بين النخب الحاكمة وأو الطامحة للحكم في الولايات المتحدة ما زالت تعتبر أن القدر المتجلّي للولايات المتحدة واستثنائيتها يجعلها موكلة بقيادة العالم. النظرة التوراتية للأمور تتحكم في اللاوعي الأميركي وهنا الخطورة من الانزلاق نحو حماقات كارثية خاصة أن الهروب إلى الأمام هو السبيل الوحيد عند تلك النخب. الرهان لعدم حدوث ذلك هو على تيقّن العقول الباردة، وهي موجودة ولكن معزولة، في التغلّب على موجة الجنون الجماعي التي تتحكّم بتلك النخب. وبالتالي قد لا نستبعد حصول تغييرات داخل البيت الأبيض وفي منظومة الحكم بعد الإخفاقات الكارثية التي حققتها الإدارة الحالية.
أما على الصعيد الإقليمي فنتوقع تحوّلات كبيرة في الملفات الساخنة كفلسطين المحتلة وسورية واليمن. كما نتوقع ترسيخ قواعد لنظام عربي جديد قد يأخذ ما تبقّى من العقد الحالي حتى منتصف العقد القادم، أي منتصف الثلاثينات من القرن الحالي.
فعلى صعيد فلسطين فإن الكيان الصهيوني الاستيطاني المحتل يواجه أزمة وجود بحدّة لم يألفها منذ إقامته. فالخطر الوجودي الذي يشعر به بسبب فقدان الأمن وعبثية الرهان على تطبيع مع أنظمة لا تستطيع أن توفر الأمن للكيان يتلازم مع ارتفاع وتيرة المواجهة المسلحة من أبناء فلسطين. فتداعيات العملية العسكرية في أوكرانيا عرّت المواقف الغربية في توفير الحماية لأوكرانيا في مواجهة روسيا. والدرس بات واضحا للقيادات الصهيونية أن وعود الغرب لا تتجاوز الحبر على الورق وأن الغرب لن يقاتل في سبيل ما هو أهم من الكيان. فمستقبل أوروبا أهم من الكيان وتبيّن أن القادة الأوروبيين لن يقاتلوا في سبيل تصوّراتهم لأوروبا. فهل يعقل أن أوروبا ستقاتل في سبيل كيان تتشوّه سمعته يوما بعد يوم وتظهر على حقيقته البغيضة؟ وكذلك الأمر بالنسبة للولايات المتحدة التي أعلنت أنها لن تقاتل مع الكيان في مواجهة الجمهورية الإسلامية في إيران وأنها لن ترسل إلا السلاح للكيان وكأن مشكلة الكيان هي الضعف في التسليح. كما أن الولايات المتحدة لن تقاتل من أجل أوكرانيا وفقا لتصريحات قادتها. تداعيات الازمة الأوكرانية ستكون وخيمة على الكيان خاصة وان قادته كانوا مربكين في اتخاذ موقف من الأزمة. وعندما حسم الكيان تردّده ووقف مع الحكومة الأوكرانية ضد روسيا فإن لذلك تداعيات مباشرة على العلاقة بين الدولتين وخاصة في مقاربة المشهد العسكري في سورية.
من جهة أخرى نرى تحولين أساسيين في المشهد الفلسطيني. فنهاك تصاعد ملموس في المواجهة الشعبية الفلسطينية مع قوى الاحتلال تجلّى بتطوّر ملحوظ في طبيعة المواجهات. فبعد موجة المواجهات بالحجارة والدهس والطعن بالسكاكين برزت المواجهة بالسلاح الناري. لن نسترسل في مقاربة هذه التطوّرات لضيق المساحة بل نكتفي بملاحظة ظهورها مع العملية العسكرية في أوكرانيا ما يدل أن الشعب الفلسطيني يشعر بضعف الحلف المعادي له فيتجرّأ على الاقدام على عمليات لم تكن مألوفة.
أما التحوّل الثاني فهو تثبيت القوى الردعية لفصائل المقاومة في غزة ما يتيح الفرصة لانتفاضة شعبية ضد قوى الاحتلال في مختلف أنحاء فلسطين المحتلة. كما أن المقاومة وضعت الخطوط الحمراء فيما يتعلق بمستقبل القدس والاحياء العربية التي ما زالت تقاوم عمليات التهجير وأيضا فيما يتعلق بمحاولات المستعمرين لاقتحام الأقصى. أيضا القوّة الردعية للمقاومة تعزّزت مع الشعور بأن الحلف المعادي يعاني من الضعف ما يجعل آفاق النصر أكثر وضوحا وقربة.
ومن تداعيات العملية العسكرية في أوكرانيا الارباك في النظام التركي الذي تردّد بين مصالحه مع روسيا والشرق بشكل عام والتزاماته الأطلسية. لكن الضعف الأطلسي ستجعل تركيا أكثر استجابة للضغوط الروسية والإيرانية في الملفّ السوري خاصة أن أوراق الضغط الروسي ليست ضعيفة كصواريخ أس 400 والتدفق السياحي الذي يشكل خشبة الخلاص في الأزمة الاقتصادية التي تشهدها تركيا. فالخروج من سورية أصبح ضرورة لتجنّب التداعيات السلبية من رفض احترام السيادة السورية على أراضيها.
والتداعيات للعملية العسكرية في أوكرانيا تأتي في سياق أخفاقات كبيرة للسياسة الأميركية انعكست على سلوك العديد من الدول العربية المحسوبة على الولايات المتحدة والتي تدور في فلكها. ويمكن وصف الحال في تلك الدول بداية جادة لمراجعة العديد من مواقفها وتحالفاتها ومقارباتها للعديد من الملفات التي ساهمت في انقسام البيت العربي. نذكر في هذا الإطار الامتناع عن التصويت في الجمعية العمومية للأمم المتحدة لصالح قرارات تدين روسيا. كما نذكر عدم الموافقة على فرض عقوبات اقتصادية ومالية على روسيا. بل العكس نجد حكومات هذه الدول تفكّر جدّيا بالانفصال عن الدولار في تسعير براميل النفط التي تصدّرها وبدأت تدرس إمكانيات التعامل بالروبل الروسي واليوان الصيني. هذه الإشارات الصريحة لم تكن واردة منذ بضعة أشهر ونضعها في خانة تداعيات العملية العسكرية في أوكرانيا التي عرّت الأطلسي وأظهرت ضعفه وعجزه. فالدول العربية التي كانت تتبنّى نظرية ملكية ال 99 بالمائة من أوراق اللعبة الدولية بيد الولايات المتحدة بدأت بمراجعة لتلك النظرية.
وهذه المراجعة التي تأتي في سياق مشاهدة التراجعات الأميركية في أفغانستان وفي مفاوضاتها غير المباشرة مع الجمهورية الإسلامية في إيران في الملف النووي تدفع الدول المتخاصمة مع إيران إلى مفاوضات ما زالت في بدايتها والتي كانت غير ممكنة منذ سنة أو أكثر. كما أن المراجعات في الملفات المتعلقة بسورية واليمن والعراق ولبنان قد تصل إلى انفراجات ضرورية للنهوض من الحالة الكارثية التي تعيشها الدول. كل ذلك لم يكن ممكنا لولا وضوح الإخفاقات الأميركية في أوكرانيا التي لم تكن لتحصل لولا القدرات الروسية وحلفها مع الصين. فهذه القدرات كما أشرنا في البداية لم تكن لتقوم لولا صمود القوى المقاومة العربية في كل من العراق ولبنان وفلسطين وسورية واليمن.
الإخفاقات الأطلسية في أوكرانيا تتلازم مع التصعيد في المواجهة الشعبية في فلسطين ما يلغي جدوى التطبيع مع الكيان المحتل. فإذا كانت الأوراق بيد الولايات المتحدة غير فاعلة فإن البوّابة للحصول على الرضى الأميركي أي الكيان الصهيوني المحتل لم تعد ضرورة. هذا لا يعني التراجع الفوري أو القريب عن التطبيع بل سنرى اشتداد المقاومة الشعبية للتطبيع دون ان عوائق كبيرة ما يفرغ التطبيع من مضمونه.
أما في الساحة السورية فسنرى تصعيدا في المواجهة مع قوى التعصّب والغلو والتوحّش المحتشدة في إدلب وجوارها كما سنرى تصعيدا في مواجهة القوى المتحالفة مع الولايات المتحدة في شرق سورية ومواجهات متصاعدة مع القوات الأميركي التي ستخرج في نهاية المطاف في كل من سورية والعراق. الإخفاقات في أوكرانيا لن تمكن الولايات المتحدة في الاستمرار في العراق وسورية ومواجهات محتملة مع الحلف السورية الروسي.
وأخيرا فيما يتعلّق باليمن فقوى التحالف العدواني على اليمن مضطرة إلى إنهاء العدوان والتفاهم مع القوى اليمنية الصامدة. اما الحل السياسي للمشكلة اليمنية فهو في الحوار بين مكوّنات الشعب اليمني وليس عبر إملاءات خارجية سواء كانت دولية أو غربية أو إقليمية.
المراجعات والتحوّلات الميدانية في المشرق العربي وتراجع موجة التطبيع ستفرض حتما مراجعة للنظام الإقليمي العربي. من المبكر التكلّم عن شكل النظام الجديد بل نكتفي بالقول ان قاعدته ستكون المربع السوري العراقي الجزائري اليمني، وفيما بعد دول الجزيرة العربية بقيادة اليمن وبلاد الحرمين، ثم بلاد وادي النيل والتشبيك المتزايد بي مصر والسودان، وأخيرا دول المغرب الكبير محوره الجزائر والمغرب. وركيزة ذلك النظام هو التشبيك الاقتصادي والسياسي بين دول المجاورة في الأقاليم العربية ولكن لذلك حديث آخر في مناسبة منفصلة.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addresses, in a speech, the latest developments in occupied Palestine and the upcoming parliamentary elections, citing US interference.
Nasrallah: We stand strong by Palestine
In a speech addressing the latest developments in Palestine, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah stressed, on Monday evening, the need to stand in reverence before the families of the Palestinian martyrs and their decisive stances.
Sayyed Nasrallah said, “We must hail and stand in reverence before the heroism of the men, youth, women, children, and elders of occupied Palestine.”
In a speech addressing the latest developments in Palestine, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed, on Monday evening, that “what is happening in occupied Palestine has great implications on the struggle with the enemy and the future of the Israeli entity.”
Sayyed Nasrallah addressed the Israeli occupation government, saying, “If you are betting on the despair and frustration of the Palestinian people, then you are delusional,” and, “If you think that the official Arab abandonment will lead to the retreat of the Palestinian youth, you are also delusional.”
While he considered that “what is happening in and around occupied Palestine requires a long contemplation time and more support and solidarity,” Sayyed Nasrallah expressed “the absolute support and backing for the Palestinian people and their resistance.”
He stressed, “We are partners with them [Palestinian people] in this battle and in achieving victory.”
The resistance imposed a huge equation on the enemy in the April ‘96 war
Sayyed Nasrallah recalled the April 1996 war and stressed that “the Resistance was able to impose on the enemy the equation of protecting civilians while going on with its resistance.”
He pointed out that “the equation of protecting civilians from Israeli attacks still exists thanks to the Resistance.”
Sayyed Nasrallah pointed out that the United States always defends the aggressor enemy and its massacres and prevents even its condemnation.
There is talk that some embassies want to postpone the parliamentary elections
On the upcoming elections in Lebanon, Hezbollah Secretary-General said the Lebanese parliamentary elections are around the corner, noting that the US embassy and other embassies have come to the understanding that the current parliamentary majority will maintain its position.
He stressed that “no one should believe that obtaining two-thirds of the parliamentary seats is a realistic and logical goal, and we are convinced that Lebanon cannot but be based on understanding,” highlighting the dispersion among the other parties during the formation of electoral lists.
He explicitly said, “It is our right to accuse the US embassy of seeking to postpone the parliamentary elections.”
Sayyed Nasrallah also revealed that there is talk that some embassies want to postpone the parliamentary elections to arrange the affairs of the other side of the political spectrum.
Considering that “one of the objectives of talking about postponing the elections may be to reduce the citizens’ enthusiasm to participate,” Nasrallah said, “We consider that we are waging an electoral battle, so the voter turnout should be high.”
A lot of Saudi money poured into Lebanese official’s pockets
Nasrallah also revealed that a Saudi official had disclosed to him that “Riyadh spent huge amounts of money in Lebanon during the 2009 elections,” noting that “a large part of this money was not spent on the elections, but went into the balances of political officials in Lebanon.”
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah called on the Lebanese “not to rely on opinion polls and definitive results and to head to the ballot boxes with full enthusiasm and concern.”
He stressed that “we must work to ensure the success of our candidates and the candidates of our allies, who are advancing in many constituencies, even without our support,” confirming, “We want our allies to succeed in these elections so that we can cooperate together in shouldering responsibilities.”
Nasrallah stressed that Hezbollah does not have secret alliances because all its alliances are crystal clear.
He declared that “Hezbollah passing on the preferential votes to the rest of the allies will be public and based on understanding,” stressing that, “we have not made a prior commitment to anyone.”
Sayyed Nasrallah said, “We do not want to abolish anyone, and we want everyone to be represented in Parliament in their true sizes.”
He added that “in 2005, the March 14 forces were the ones who abolished the political forces, and the fact that they accepted the Amal movement and Hezbollah was compelled.”
He stressed that the sides trying to abolish others are the ones who were betting in the July 2006 war on crushing the resistance and its environment, the ones who sat with the Americans and incited them to defeat Hezbollah in the July war, and the ones who are ready to go as far as igniting a civil war just to crush others.
Sayyed Nasrallah asked the question, “How can you talk about using arms to shape a particular political environment when you obtained the parliamentary majority more than once and formed governments?”
“This who are trying to trick the Lebanese into believing that the Resistance arms are the cause of all the crises, why don’t they even bring up corruption and economic policies in the past 30 years?” he wondered.
The Resistance protects Lebanon through a deterrence equation
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah considered that “the ones who are taking aim at the arms of the Resistance only aim at appeasing America, the West, and some Arab regimes to obtain financial support.”
Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that “the Resistance is the side that protects the country through a deterrence equation it has imposed on the enemy.”
On the relations with Arab countries, hinting at Saudi Arabia, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah asked, “Who is sabotaging Arab relations, who is taking a supportive position on the aggression on Yemen, and who has launched a devastating military aggression seven years ago?”
Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that “the Yemenis imposed their will on the international community through their steadfastness and fighting,” hoping that “the armistice – which he welcomed – would be a prelude for a political solution.”
He explained that this is “what we have been asking for from the beginning; to stop the war and massacres, and no one aims at targeting Saudi Arabia.”
He believed that “the only solution in Yemen is to negotiate and engage in direct talks with Sanaa,” confirming that the latter is not to be pressured.
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The Palestinian territories are inflamed in the face of the Israeli occupation entity
Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivered a speech on Wednesday during a ceremony held by the resistance group marking the anniversary of its Martyr Leaders. The festival was held in the Sayyed Shuhada Complex in Beirut’s southern suburb, in parallel with similar gatherings in the villages to which the three martyr leaders belong.
Hezbollah martyred leaders are Sheikh Ragheb Harb, Sayyed Abbas al-Moussawi, and Hajj Imad Mughniye, with their respective hometowns as Jibchit, Nabi Chitt, and Tayr Debba.
The resistance leader unveiled that despite all ‘Israeli’ attempts to block Hezbollah’s weapons transfers, the resistance group started transforming its missiles into precision-guided ones, in addition to manufacturing drones that are also “available for those who want to purchase,” according to the resistance leader.
The Hezbollah leader also advised the ‘Israelis’ to leave the land of Palestine, offering them to pay for their tickets to return to where they came from.
At the beginning of his speech, Sayyed Nasrallah congratulated all Muslims and lovers of Imam Ali [AS] on his birth anniversary.
Resolution 1982 and the Birth of Resistance
His Eminence then started to explain the motto of the occasion: Resolution 1982, which when summing the years that have passed on the martyrdoms of Sheikh Ragheb Harb, Sayyed Abbas al-Moussawi, and Hajj Imad Mughniyeh, 38, 30, and 14 years respectively, equal 82 years. 1982 is also the same year Hezbollah started its action as a resistance movement. “It was the year of deciding the birth and the launching of Hezbollah, and the progress that is lasting until this day. The blood of our martyrs has blessed this path and granted it all what it has today,” Sayyed Nasrallah underscored.
The Hezbollah leader further referred to resistance as an ideology, culture, and civilization in the region that existed before the 1982 invasion. “There had previously been Lebanese factions and parties that believed in resistance, among them was Sayyed Abdul Hussein Sharafeddine and Sayyed Musa Sadr.”
What was significant about the 1982 invasion, Sayyed Nasrallah went on to say, is that it represented the biggest threat and challenge to Lebanon and its people, and the entire region. “Lebanon was facing the danger of sovereignty, belonging to ‘Israel’, and the change of its identity, yet the Resistance was the side that preserved Lebanon’s identity with blood and jihad [fighting]; and will keep doing so.”
In terms of official dates, Sayyed Nasrallah noted that the Islamic Resistance was born in 1982 to cooperate with the truly sovereign people to preserve Lebanon’s identity.
His Eminence then highlighted the roles of martyred leaders in this path respectively, “Sheikh Ragheb Harb’s rejection of shaking hands with the ‘Israeli’ and recognizing it was a banner for our launching. Then martyr leader Sayyed Abbas al-Moussawi became the “combatant Sayyed” after the 1982 invasion. The foundation of the resistance began with Sayyed Abbas al-Moussawi and turned to a growing, strong, and organized entity whose Sayyed Abbas was its constant. Then, martyr leader Hajj Imad Mughniyeh was the act of resistance, its battlefield, its victory, he was the changer the equations, and the smasher of the enemy.”
“With martyr leader Hajj Imad Mughniyeh, Hezbollah witnessed the smart, innovative, military, and security, as well as the qualitative and quantitative development of the resistance, which contributed to achieving victories,” Sayyed Nasrallah went on to say.
Reiterating that the Resistance follows the footsteps of the martyr leaders to face the enemy’s greed, Sayyed Nasrallah praised it as a defender of Lebanon and a supporter of Palestine. “The Resistance will keep its pledge despite all conspiracies and lobbying.”
The ‘Israeli’ Annihilation
Elsewhere in his speech, Hezbollah’s secretary general underscored the resistance movements firm believe in the annihilation of the ‘Israeli’ occupation regime, stating that although some in Lebanon and the region think that the future belongs to ‘Israel’, and that’s why they normalize ties with it; however, the resistance movements in the region, including Hezbollah, believe that this occupying entity is temporary and declining.
“The descending curve of the occupation has started since 1985 when the Resistance forced ‘Israel’ to withdraw to the so-called “security belt”. The curve of the occupation declined thanks to the achievements of the Resistance and its victories in Palestine and Lebanon,” Sayyed Nasrallah emphasized, citing senior ‘Israeli’ analysts and leaders who admit that ‘Israel’ is declining and its elimination is a matter of time.
“We are in front of an entity which is in crisis, declining, and so is its army. The ‘Israelis’ themselves emphasized that ‘Israel’ is in front of three threats, one of which is its social crisis,” His Eminence also said.
Sayyed Nasrallah further explained that Hezbollah is concerned with following the enemy’s entity on a daily basis; “this entity won’t survive since it is artificial and its fate is related to the fate of its army.”
Back to the countries that normalize ties with the ‘Israeli’ regime and sends it its cash, Sayyed Nasrallah referred to them as serving this entity and attempting to bring it to life again, while the desire of the ‘Israelis’ themselves in joining the fight is declining and so is the trust in the Zionist army.
The Hezbollah leader urged ‘Israeli’ settlers to leave the Palestinian lands and voiced Hezbollah’s readiness to pay the expenses of their tickets to return to where they belong.
Lashing out at those normalizing ties with the ‘Israeli’ regime, Sayyed Nasrallah explained that they were requested to do so to help the occupation entity solve its crises.
Meanwhile, his eminence urged the Palestinian people to remain steadfast as the horizon for their liberation, which is represented by the resistance, is their sole way.
‘Israel’ always Deterred
Highlighting the the ‘Israeli’ enemy is deterred thanks to the resistance and the equation of its strength in face of the enemy’s weakness, Sayyed Nasrallah vowed that the resistance will continue building up its power and monitoring the enemy regardless of all the campaigns launched against it.
“All campaigns against the resistance “are nonsense” and our resistance is in continuous confrontation with the enemy. The enemy is attempting to carry out “a battle between the wars” to deal the resistance a blow as it does in Syria. The enemy, through its attacks on Syria, attempts to prevent Hezbollah from receiving the qualitative weapons,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, mocking the enemy’s attempts which made Hezbollah turn the threat into an opportunity.
Thanks to this challenge, Sayyed Nasrallah unveiled that Hezbollah has obtained the capability of transforming the thousands of missiles it has into precision-guided missiles.
“Since years Hezbollah has been transforming its missiles into precision-guided missiles,” Sayyed Nasrallah uncovered, then addressed the ‘Israeli’ who is searching for them by saying: “Search as much as you want and we are waiting for you!”
Sayyed Nasrallah further cautioned the enemy that when it dares to carry out an offensive to search for Hezbollah’s missiles, we might be facing a second “Ansariya Operation”.
The resistance leader further announced that Hezbollah also started in the past years to manufacture drones, telling those who want to purchase some that “They are welcome!”
Sayyed Nasrallah then praised the youths in the resistance who can keep themselves updated with all the advancements: “Hezbollah is ready for every new development in its military industry.”
His Eminence also explained that the occupation regime is recruiting agents in Lebanon to compensate for the absence of its drones in our airspace, then reiterated that the capabilities and the structure of the resistance is in continuous development and the past Summer was one of Hezbollah’s biggest training seasons.
Lebanese Parliamentary Elections
The Hezbollah leader said it time and again that the resistance group supports holding the Lebanese parliamentary elections on time, and criticized those who are accusing Hezbollah of delaying the elections, telling them that they seem to be the ones who really want this delay.
“Hezbollah supports holding the parliamentary elections on time, and considers those election very critical,” Sayyed Nasrallah said as he announced Hezbollah’s official slogan for the parliamentary race as: “We’ll Continue Defending and Building [our country].”
The Hezbollah leader laid emphasis on the pledge to remain defending the nation and building it. “We will keep defending and building our country through the golden equation of Army, People, and Resistance, and we insist on the Lebanese Army’s role.”
People that Protect the Resistance
Sayyed Nasrallah greeted the people of resistance who have always been backing it in face of the all the attacks and attempts to lobby against Hezbollah.
“Hadn’t the resistance relied on an embracing environment, it won’t be able to defend those people, their dignity, present, and future,” His Eminence said, adding that “After failing in their wars, they are attempting to target the people embracing the resistance.”
Additionally, Sayyed Nasrallah explained that the foes “attempt to lobby against the resistance by economic hardships and luring people to abandon the resistance, yet the paid campaigns will fail since the logic of resistance is stronger and more credible.”
Lebanon to Remain a Nation of Freedoms!
Elsewhere in his speech, Sayyed Nasrallah blasted the the targeted harassment against some Shia opposition groups from different Arab nations and the selective attempts to ban them from holding conferences and events in Lebanon.
His Eminence affirmed that Hezbollah preserves Lebanon’s identity that is provided by the country’s Constitution, atop of which is the freedom of press and expression.
Lashing out at some in Lebanon who ban the freedom of press and expression, Sayyed Nasrallah criticized their selective ban as well as forbidding and violating what they want.
“In the nation of freedoms, the oppressed Bahraini people have the right to commemorate the anniversary of their revolution. In the nation of freedoms, the Yemeni people have the right to speak up for their martyred children and the injustice they are subjected to!” Sayyed Nasrallah made it clear.
The resistance leader further explained that as Hezbollah preserves the identity of Lebanon as a nation of freedoms, its missiles preserve life in it as well as its borders.
His Eminence then questioned the achievements of those who are attacking the resistance in Lebanon: “What have you done for Lebanon? What have you done with the money you received [as donations]? Where are the $30 billion Mohammad Bin Salman and the US said they have offered to Lebanon?”
Closing his speech, Sayyed Nasrallah addressed the people of resistance, assuring them that “Hezbollah will keep preserving the will [of Sayyed Abbas al-Moussawi], we defend and build [the nation], we make achievements, and we emerge victorious…”
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah affirms in his speech that the Resistance “is following in the footsteps of its martyred leaders against the ambitions of the enemy to protect Lebanon and support Palestine.”
Sayyed Nasrallah: The Resistance is the entity that preserved Lebanon’s identity and sovereignty. Video
A legacy of three leaders to cherish
In a speech on the anniversary of the Hezbollah’s martyred leaders, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that “the 1982 invasion constituted an unprecedented danger to Lebanon aimed at confiscating its sovereignty and changing its identity,” noting that the Resistance “is the entity that preserved the Lebanese identity by means of the spilled blood and the course of jihad, and it will continue to do so.”
He added that “the Islamic Resistance was established in 1982 to cooperate with real sovereign entities in the country to preserve its identity,” stressing that the martyred leader Sheikh Ragheb Harb, by refusing to shake hands with the Israeli occupation and recognize it, was the beacon that sparked the launch of our movement.
Sayyed Nasrallah then moved to martyred leader Sayyed Abbass Al-Moussawi and said that he turned from a religious personality into a freedom fighter with the onset of the 1982 invasion. Then the course continued, he said, and was crowned by the leader Imad Moghnieh who manifested the resistance’s action on the ground and its victory, whereby it changed the status quo and crushed the enemy.
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah stressed that the Resistance “is following in the footsteps of its martyred leaders against the ambitions of the enemy for the sake of protecting Lebanon and supporting Palestine,” stressing that “the Resistance shall maintain its vows despite all the conspiracies and pressures.”
He added, “There are those in Lebanon and the region who think that the future is linked to Israel and that is why they rush to normalize ties with it,” but they should know that all “the resistance movements in the region, including Hezbollah, believe that this entity is but temporary and is in decline.”
Sayed Nasrallah: The Israeli occupation entity is in decline
Sayyed Nasrallah pointed out that the Israeli occupation has been on a downward path since 1985 when the Resistance forced it to withdraw to the ‘security belt’ and stressed that the occupation has been forced into this situation thanks to the Resistance’s achievements and victories in Palestine and Lebanon.
He pointed out that “the enemy’s top leaders and analysts confirm that indeed Israel is in a state of decline, and its end is just a matter of time,” adding, “We are facing a distressed entity and army heading downward sharply.”
Sayyed Nasrallah added that the Israelis themselves affirmed that they are facing three threats, including a “social crisis and the disintegration of its [social] fabric.” He considered that the normalizing countries are only serving the Israeli project by providing “Israel” with money in an attempt to resuscitate it.
He also stressed that the Israelis no longer have the desire to fight and their confidence in their army has declined, but their desire to leave has increased.
“We encourage the Israelis to leave Palestine and we are ready to bear the costs of their trip,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah pointed out that some Arab countries were asked to normalize ties with “Israel” in order to help the occupation entity get out of its crises, noting that the Palestinian people are “expected to be steadfast, because liberation lies in the horizon, and the Resistance is the only way to pursue in that path.”
Sayyed Nasrallah: We started manufacturing drones in Lebanon years ago
Nasrallah considered that the enemy has become impotent by the Resistance thanks to its power and the weakness of the enemy itself, stressing that “the Resistance continues to build its strength and keeps pace with the enemy, regardless of all the ravaging campaigns against it.”
He clarified that all campaigns against the Resistance are but “scattered dust” and “our Resistance is in a continuous confrontation with the enemy,” adding that “the enemy is trying to win a battle among a series of failed wars to target the Resistance, just as it does in Syria.”
Nasrallah pointed out that “the enemy is trying, through its attacks in Syria, to prevent the Resistance’s qualitative weapons from reaching Lebanon,” but they should know that despite all their attempts “the Resistance has acquired the ability to convert thousands of missiles into precision-strike missiles.”
He addressed the Israeli enemy, saying, “We have been converting our missiles into precision missiles for years.”
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah warned the Israeli occupation that if it dares to launch an operation of any kind in search of the Resistance’s missiles, they will be faced with an operation similar to the “Ansari Operation”.
“We began manufacturing drones in Lebanon, years ago… whoever wants to buy, we are more than ready to sell,” Hezbollah Secretary-general said.
Nasrallah also stressed that “our youth have the ability to keep up with all developments, and we are ready for any developments in our military industry,” noting that “the Resistance decided to activate its air defense system, which has been in place for years, to face the danger of Israeli drones.”
He said, “The Israeli occupation is employing collaborators in Lebanon to compensate for the absence of its drones from our country’s airspace,” stressing that “the Resistance’s capabilities and structure are in a state of continuous development” and pointing out that last summer marked a prominent and major season of military exercises and training.
Regarding the upcoming parliamentary elections in Lebanon, Sayyed Nasrallah said, “Whoever is accusing us of delaying the parliamentary elections in Lebanon seems to be the one who wants this delay,” adding that Hezbollah supports holding the parliamentary elections on time and calling the elections as “fateful”.
In this context, he revealed that Hezbollah’s electoral slogan for the upcoming elections is: “We shall forever protect and build,” addressing those who always try to stand in their way of protection and building, saying, “We shall forever protect and build armed with the golden three; ‘The People, the Army, and the Resistance.'”
Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the Lebanese Army is the basic guarantee for the country’s security, unity, and protection from all dangers.
He considered that the milieu that embraces and upholds the Resistance is a core element in its achievements and missions, and it is an essential part of the golden three, stressing that this milieu is a “strong element and a key factor in making victories, and that is why it is always targeted.”
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah added that having failed in the wars they waged, now they are trying to target the environment that fosters the Resistance in order to incite people against it and eventually abandon it. He stressed that all the campaigns of those fomenting sedition and offering financial support for a systematic campaign of insults and attacks on the Resistance will fail because the logic of the resistance is stronger and more credible.
Sayyed Nasrallah continued, “They are still trying to coerce the Resistance through economic pressures and offering temptations in exchange for abandoning it.”
Sayyed Nasrallah: We are the entity that protected Lebanon’s identity and sovereignty
The Secretary-General of Hezbollah indicated that certain individuals attempt to prevent freedom of expression in Lebanon, so they prevent and allow expression as per their whims.
He stressed that “in Lebanon, the country of freedom… the oppressed Bahraini people have the right to commemorate the memory of their revolution.”
Nasrallah also considered that “the Yemeni people have the right to speak up about their martyred children and the injustice they are afflicted with,” stressing that “we are the entity that protects Lebanon’s identity and sovereignty, and our missiles are the weapons that protect the people’s living in it and its borders.”
He addressed those who continuously attack the Resistance in Lebanon, asking “What have you accomplished for the country, and what have you done with all the money you received? Where are the $30 billion that Bin Salman and America said they offered to Lebanon?”
Nasrallah ended his speech with a reassuring message to the supporters of the Resistance:
“We will keep moving forward, and we are staying… we shall preserve the legacy (of the martyr leaders)… we will protect and build… we will accomplish and come out victorious.”
Posted on December 31, 2021 by uprootedpalestinians
ناصر قنديل
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مع نهاية عام وبداية عام جديد يقوم الناس بجردة حساب لما مضى ومحاولة رسم الآفاق لما هو قادم، وهذا يحدث على المستوى الفردي الشخصي وكذلك على مستوى الجماعات والشعوب والدول، والمنطقة التي نعيش فيها والعالم الذي ننتمي إليه، وقد شهد العالم أكبر التحولات التي تؤسس للعام المقبل، مع الانسحاب الأميركي من أفغانستان الذي شكل أول حدث من نوعه منذ الانسحاب السوفياتي من أفغانستان، الذي أدى بتداعياته إلى إطلاق مسار انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي، وقبله الانسحاب الأميركي من فييتنام الذي بقي مصدر ردع يمنع الذهاب الأميركي إلى حروب جديدة لعقود طويلة، وهذا الانسحاب الأميركي من أفغانستان الذي قال الرئيس الأميركي جو بايدن إنه ترجمة لقناعة ثابتة بأن التدخل العسكري ثبت فشله كطريق لصناعة السياسة وتعميم الديمقراطية، وأن المزيد من البقاء سيعني المزيد من الخسائر والمزيد من الفشل.
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في المنطقة شهد العام الذي يلملم ما تبقى منه ليرحل، أبرز تطور في القضية التي تحكم مستقبل السياسة فيها، عبر المعركة الفاصلة التي عرفت بسيف القدس، بين قوى المقاومة في غزة، وجيش الاحتلال، وخلال أيام المعركة برزت معادلة ردع جديدة كانت خلالها تل أبيب تحت صواريخ المقاومة، فيما كانت الأراضي المحتلة عام 48 تسجل أعظم انتفاضاتها المستدامة، والقدس تقدم شبابها وصباياها شهداء في عمليات الطعن والدهس، ليدخل الصراع في المنطقة مرحلة جديدة عنوانها بلوغ التراجع الإسرائيلي مرحلة غير مسبوقة منذ نشأة هذا الكيان وتسيده على المنطقة، بصفته القوة الوحيدة القادرة على صناعة الحرب، وبقوة جيش قيل عنه إنه لايقهر، وبات يقهر ويقهر ويقهر.
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بين العالم والمنطقة يدخل التفاوض في فيينا اختبار البحث عن فرص السياسة لتجاوز الاستعصاء وملء الفراغات بالسياسة، فالإدارة الأميركية التي تحاول أن تتماسك الاخفاء الندوب التي تملء جسمها الاجتماعي والسياسي والاقتصادي، وترفع صوتها وتصرخ، على أمل تحسين شروط التفاوض بحثاً عن سنوات ضرورية لالتقاط الأنفاس، وتطلق عليها أسماء جذابة وبراقة، كالعودة إلى الدبلوماسية والسياسة، وأولوية أميركا العظيمة على أميركا العظمى، وتشكل العودة الأميركية إلى الإتفاق النووي إعلان نهاية زمن العقوبات كأداة لصناعة السياسة، بمثل ما شكل الانسحاب من أفغانستان إعلان نهاية زمن القوة العسكرية في صناعة السياسة، لتظهر المفاوضات مع روسيا إعلاناً مزدوجاً لنهاية الزمنيين معاً، فتفقد أميركا القدمين اللتين كانت تقف عليهما في العالم، القوة والمال، بمثل ما فقدت “إسرائيل” قدميها أيضاً، الاحتلال والردع، وبعدما فشلت حروب الوكالة أو الحرب الناعمة فرصها في تشكيل بديل مناسب، وكانت سورية الإعلان الأهم لهذا الفشل، حيث كانت أيضاً روسيا، وكانت إيران، وكان الشهيد قاسم سليماني الذي تحل ذكراه بعد أيام وتخصص له البناء عدداً خاصاً يوم الثلاثاء تشارك في مقالاته أسماء لها باعها في صناعة السياسة، يتقدمها وزير خارجية سورية الدكتور فيصل المقداد ورئيس كتلة الوفاء للمقاومة النائب محمد رعد، تبدو واشنطن وتل أبيب في العام الجديد على موعد مع الفراغ الاستراتيجي، وفيما تملك واشنطن استراتيجية الخروج بالتفاوض، تواجه “إسرائيل مستقبلها القاتم، كما سبق وحذرتها وزيرة الخارجية الأميركية السابقة هيلاري كلينتون.
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في لبنان حيث الرقص فوق صفيح ساخن، سجل العام الذي يمضي نهاية حركة الشارع التي بدأت مع انتفاضة 17 تشرين الأول عام 2019، وتحول الرهان على إعادة رسم توازنات النظام السياسي نحو الانتخابات، التي يدرك الجميع أنها لن تحمل أكثر من تعديلات في الأوزان والأحجام ستحفظ بمفهوم الديمقراطية التوافقية، حق الفيتو لجميع اللاعبين الكبار، وكما يظهر لبنان الغارق في انهيار اقتصادي وسياسي وانسداد قدرة المؤسسات الدستورية على التعامل مع الأزمات، تبدو الإشارة الوحيدة الايجابية هي أن لبنان الذي ذهب في أزمات مماثلة إلى الحرب الأهلية، يبدو بعيداً عنها بسبب معادلة قوامها “أن من يقدر عليها لا يريدها، ومن يريدها لا يقدر عليها”، وبفعل قوة المقاومة سيكون أمام لبنان فرصة للاستفادة من عائدات التحولات الاقليمية المقبلة، ليقف على طرف التلقي الايجابي بدلاً من موقع تقليدي كان يحجز له هو الوقوف على طرف التلقي السلبي.
In a recent interview published on the Islam asil YouTube channel, Sunni Lebanese Sheikh Ghazi Yusuf Hunayna stated that ‘within only 10 years, the Resistance Axis managed to shift the global balance of power’.
The ‘Resistance Axis’ referenced here by Sheikh Hunayna broadly refers to a strategic anti-Israel/anti-US imperialist alliance composed of, but not limited to, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Iraq’s Hashed al-Shaabi, Yemen’s Ansarullah, and various Palestinian armed factions.
Source: Islam asil (You Tube)
Date: November 8, 2021
( Please help us keep producing independent translations for you by contributing a small monthly amount here )
Transcript:
Sheikh Ghazi Yusuf Hunayna, Sunni Lebanese Scholar:
There is no doubt that the Islamic Unity Project – or so to put it more precisely and broadly, that the Resistance Axis Project – is facing a very big opponent, which is the United States, along with several Western states, the Zionist lobby, and a great deal of Arab hypocritical states that are unfortunately secretly colluding behind the scenes with the Zionist enemy and with the American enemy. This Islamic Unity Project and this Resistance Axis Project is facing all of these enemies with, of course, a clear disproportion in (each side’s) capabilities.
The Americans and their allies have a huge media apparatus as well as strong financial capabilities. It is correct that we are still treading the first steps of (establishing) the authentic Muhammadan Islamic media, which calls for the unity of the (Muslim) nation, (which promotes) the culture of Islamic unity among the members of the Ummah and the renunciation of disagreement and of fragmentation.
In addition, we hold on to the Resistance Axis Project along with the idea of the Islamic Unity Project for the sake of liberating Palestine, thereby leading other sides to unite against us and (seek to) influence our internal coherence. However, this does not mean that we are not concerned about cultural, social, and political issues in terms of the Islamic Unity Project, (in contrast), the project shoulders additional dimensions.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is concerned with addressing such topics, but we must keep in mind the Resistance Axis (in comparison with the) other side’s capabilities. However, despite the imbalance in capabilities, we were able, and within 10 years (only), to alter the international equations (in our favour).
The Security Council was led by a singular pole, which is the United States, however, today a tripartite international balance has been generated consisting of America-Russia-China. With Russia and China stands the allies: Syria, Iran, Yemen, Palestine, Lebanon, Venezuela, and many other free states of the world.
Therefore, within the (context) of the Islamic Unity Project we must expand the scope of our work and build and open (new) bridges (that connect us) with others, even though we know that those others whom we hope will reach the same awareness that we have reached are experiencing a lot of pressure that might even threaten their livelihoods and occupations.
إذا أمكن تسمية المرحلة الجديدة في موازين القوى على الساحة الدولية بمرحلة ما بعد أفغانستان، فان من سمات هذه المرحلة، العجز الأميركي عن المضي قدماً في أي تصعيد للحفاظ على المواقع المحققة في المرحلة السابقة أو وهم القدرة في خوض مواجهات لتحقيق مواقع جديدة، عندما يصل الأمر إلى مرحلة فرضيات الانزلاق إلى الحرب، ومن السمات أيضاً، تجذر الشكوك بين واشنطن وحلفائها سواء الشركاء في حلف الناتو أو شكوك الشركاء في الملفات الإقليمية في ثبات واشنطن وفي صدقية الناتو، ومن السمات أيضاً أن خصوم واشنطن، وخصوصاً روسيا والصين وإيران، يدركون نقاط ضعفها، ويبنون سياساتهم على السعي لتحقيق مكاسب سواء بفرض أمر واقع عليها أو على حلفائها الإقليميين، أو بوضع سقوف افتراضية لأهداف أي عملية تفاوض يسعون لتتويجها بتحقيق مكاسب.
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قدمت واشنطن نموذجاً عن كيفية تعاملها مع المخاطر التي تفرضها تحديات المواجهة خلال تجربة حزب الله مع سفن كسر الحصار، وتهديده عملياً بنقل قدرة الدرع التي يمتلكها في البر إلى البحر، وما يمكن أن يترتب على ذلك من مواجهات في مسار بحري تحتاج سفن كسر الحصار لسلوكه من إيران إلى لبنان، مروراً بالخليج ومضيق هرمز وبحر عمان ومضيق باب المندب والبحر الأحمر، وصولاً إلى قناة السويس والبحر المتوسط، وما سيترتب على هذه المواجهات من مخاطر، فجاء الانكفاء الأميركي السريع والذهاب إلى الإعلان عن استثناء جر الغاز والكهرباء إلى لبنان عبر سورية من عقوبات قانون قيصر، ليكشف حجم الارتباك الأميركي في التعامل مع سلم المخاطر وفرضيات المواجهة.
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في توقيت متزامن دخلت إيران وروسيا خط المواجهة والتفاوض، كل في ساحة منازلة حيوية واستراتيجية في الحساب الأميركي، فروسيا تفرض إيقاع التحدي في الملف الأوكراني، عبر تسليح ودعم حلفائها في شرق أوكرانيا، وبالتوازي فتح باب التفاوض تحت شعار طلب ضمانات رسمت لها سقفاً يشكل مصدر قلقها الدائم، وهو تعهد حلف الناتو بوثيقة قانونية ملزمة غير قابلة للتراجع بعدم ضم أي من دول شرق أوروبا التي تعتبرها روسيا ضمن المدى الحيوي لأمنها القومي، ووضعت روسيا في يد خطر التصعيد في أوكرانيا، وفي يد أخرى تهديد بيلاروسيا بوقف مسار الغاز إلى أوروبا، وهي تقول إن الحل السياسي متاح للملف الأوكراني لكن هذه المرة بشرط تقديم الضمانات المطلوبة لروسيا.
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تذهب إيران إلى التفاوض حول ملفها النووي، تحت عنوان عودة واشنطن إلى الإتفاق الذي انسحبت منه أحادياً بصورة مخالفة للقواعد القانونية، والمطالبة برفع العقوبات الأميركية التي رافقت الانسحاب الأميركي من الاتفاق كشرط لعودة إيران إلى موجباتها وفقاً للإتفاق، واستبقت إيران قبول الدعوة للذهاب إلى التفاوض بفرض موازين قوى إقليمية ضاغطة على حليفي واشنطن الأساسيين، “إسرائيل” والسعودية، حيث ترفع قوى المقاومة في فلسطين سقف مواجهتها تحت عنوان مهلة تنتهي آخر الشهر، لتأمين فك الحصار عن غزة ووقف الاعتداءات على القدس سكانها ومقدساتها والتوصل إلى إتفاق لتبادل الأسرى، وإلا مواجهة خطر معركة شاملة أشد قسوة من معركة سيف القدس، بينما تواجه السعودية تصعيداً خطيراً في اليمن تعجز عن التعامل معه، سواء بشقه اليمني الذي تتسع رقعة التحديات فيه من مأرب إلى الساحل الغربي، أو ما يتصل بتوازن الردع في وضع العمق السعودي تحت النار كلما تصاعدت الغارات على العمق اليمني، بينما نجحت إيران بنقل ملفها النووي إلى مرحلة متقدمة، حيث فشلت كل محاولات التعطيل وفرض التراجع التي ادعى الإسرائيليون أنهم قادرون على تحقيقها، واعترفوا بأن أيران على رغم كل الاستهدافات التي أصابتها بالأذى، باتت أقرب من أي وقت مضى للحظة النووية الحرجة، بما تعنيه من امتلاك إيران لما يكفي لإنتاج سلاح نووي، وإيران تفاوض اليوم تحت عنوان إلغاء كل العقوبات، مقابل العودة إلى الإلتزامات، ولكنها تفتح قوسين لطلب ما تسميه ضمانات عدم تكرار الانسحاب الأميركي مرة أخرى.
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الضمانات التي تطلبها إيران تشبه تلك التي تطلبها روسيا، وعندما قال الأميركي إن الرئيس جو بايدن لا يملك- دستورياً- قدرة تقديم ضمانات، وضع الإيرانيون على الطاولة طبيعة الضمانات التي يقترحونها، وقالوا نحتفظ بأجهزة الطرد المركزي المتطورة وبكميات اليورانيوم المخصب التي انتجناها، وإذا خرجت أميركا مجدداً من الاتفاق نعود إلى حيث كنا عندما توصلنا إلى الاتفاق، وبعدما كان الأميركيون يطالبون بتدمير أجهزة الطرد المركزي الجديدة المتطورة التي تخرج عن نطاق ما يسمح به الاتفاق، وإتلاف كميات اليورانيوم المخصب المنتجة، بدأوا يناقشون في تخزين أجهزة الطرد واليورانيوم المخصب لدى الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية، بينما تتقدم روسيا بمقترح أن تكون المكان البديل، وتناقش إيران بمقترح إبقائها في إيران تحت إشراف الوكالة الدولية.
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واشنطن في الخلاصة، بين ناري القبول بتقديم الضمانات التي تشكل مكاسب جديدة واستراتيجية لكل من روسيا وإيران، أو الذهاب إلى مواجهة لا تريدها في مرحلة ما بعد الانسحاب من أفغانستان.
Every time the Saudis bomb Sanaa, the Yemeni resistance retaliates against Riyadh’s strategic vulnerabilities. With nonstop strikes on Yemen’s capital city today, brace yourself for a big Saudi explosion.
“Tell him Sanaa is far, Riyadh is getting closer” is what Yemenis call out whenever their capital city is targeted by Saudi-led coalition airstrikes.
The ‘him’ in this battle cry refers to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS), who launched the six-year aggression against the Arab world’s poorest nation.
After every Saudi hit on Sanaa, this phrase floods social media, imploring the Yemeni resistance to retaliate directly against Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital city.
As the Saudis and their dwindling allies pound Sanaa relentlessly in the last days of their failed war, one wonders why they don’t yet comprehend the retaliatory firepower they are inviting in response.
It started like this …
In March 2015, one year after Yemen’s resistance movement Ansarallah took control of the capital, a 10-nation coalition was formed led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and backed logistically and politically by both the US and UK. Shortly thereafter, fighter jets and ground forces began conducting operations across provinces surrounding the capital.
More than ten thousand airstrikes were reported by the close of 2016, with Sanaa taking the lion’s share – 2,600 raids – equivalent to one airstrike every 3.5 hours, every day for two consecutive years.
In parallel with the non-stop air operations, coalition-led land forces – mainly Yemeni mercenaries and Sudanese soldiers – wrested thousands of square kilometers from Ansarallah’s control.
Ansarallah, which found itself governing populations for the first time in its short history, had only secured their authority in Sanaa one year before the aggression. The movement had not yet had the time or resources to build their infrastructure, economy, military power, and foreign policies/connections.
Photo Credit: The Cradle
A game-changing 2018
By 2018, the war that was ‘supposed to take weeks to months at most’ – and according to MbS himself, just “a few days” – had become long, directionless, and costly, especially after Saudi/UAE hostilities against Qatar surfaced and blew up Gulf cohesion.
The 10-nation military alliance against Yemeni independence, once consisting of Egypt, Jordan, Sudan, Morocco, Senegal and the Gulf states (except Oman) shrank overnight to two: the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
By 2018, Saudi-backed militias were entrenched in Sanaa’s west (Hodeidah) and east (Marib), and on Saudi Arabia’s southern borders, adjacent to Ansarallah’s stronghold in northern Yemen’s Saada Province. The UAE had its own undisclosed interests, and moved its militias primarily to the south, both for protection and to control Yemen’s strategic ports and waterways.
Ansarallah had already absorbed the shock of three years of foreign aggression, and gained valuable experience in both combat and military tactics. Its weapons manufacturing (mainly ballistic missiles and drones) capabilities and technological advances had steadily grown within the landlocked environs of Sanaa – under siege by the coalition and its western allies since the onset of war.
So, by 2018, Ansarallah was primed and ready to change the direction of the war from a purely defensive one to launching proactive hit-and-run battles.
The game changer in the Yemen war came in 2019, fast and hard. After four years of defense, Ansarallah began launching a series of operations named ‘Balance of Deterrence.’ The first of these, on 17 August, was the first operation where Yemen’s resistance launched homemade and modified ballistic missiles alongside tens of suicide drones at targets 1200km distance away, equivalent to the distance between London to Madrid or New York to Miami.
The targets were Saudi Arabia’s ARAMCO Sheba oil fields and refineries on the Saudi–UAE borders.
The second operation, which took place on 14 September, hit ARAMCO facilities in Saudi Arabia’s eastern-most territories, in Dammam. This time the strikes were on a spectacular scale and caught the world’s attention in a big way; photos and videos flew across social media before the Saudis had time to bury the details.
It took another five similar operations to discipline the Saudis to understand that targeting Sanaa would trigger a retaliation into the strategic depth of Saudi Arabia. In the aftermath of Ansarallah’s retaliatory strikes, air raids on Sanaa dropped from around one strike every three hours to three strikes per year.
Credit: almasirah.net
The war’s final chapter looms
After rapid advances in 2018 and targeted retaliatory strikes in 2019-20, Ansarallah regained most of the territories they had lost, leaving only Marib, the last stronghold of the Saudis in Yemen’s east, which is expected to be liberated imminently.
Last month, Saudi and Emirati-backed militias and mercenaries fled Hodeidah – the last Saudi stronghold in Yemen’s west – after Ansarallah announced plans to liberate the city and target the territory of the UAE.
With that stroke, the Saudis lost their footing in Yemen. Militarily speaking, foreign land forces have already lost the war and now pose zero threats to the Ansarallah-led government.
Worse yet, in 2021, for the first time in the six-year war, Yemenis in coalition-controlled provinces launched multiple public protests, complaining that the quality of life in Ansarallah-ruled areas was superior than theirs, with lower crime rates, a stable currency and cheaper raw materials available to those citizens.
Rather than scurrying to carve out a face-saving exit from this certain defeat, Riyadh has instead begun to escalate air raids on Sanaa and Marib in a ‘throw the kitchen sink at the problem’ attempt to weaken Ansarallah, consequences be damned.
This brings us to 19 November 2021 when Ansarallah made its 8th Balance of Deterrence statement (mentioned above) and launched strategic retaliatory strikes against military targets in Riyadh, Jeddah, Abha, Jizan, and Najran to remind the Saudis of its red lines.
The Saudis, irrationally, continue to pound populations in Sanaa with little regard for the retaliatory consequences or the global perception of this brutality. On 23 November, coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki even tried to justify bombing densely-populated areas by alleging that Ansarallah’s “military sites have taken hospitals, organizations, and civilians as human shields.”
The war is as good as over, so why these unnecessary air raids on Sanaa? Why would Saudi Arabia deliberately provoke and invite military strikes against Riyadh and ARAMCO? Why not instead exit Yemen overnight, in much the same way the US did in Afghanistan? Embarrassing as it may be, a quick, unpublicized retreat would at least keep Saudi cities protected.
This last-ditch escalation has nothing to do with war strategy, leverage-building or domestic politics.
A country of 2.1 million square kilometers boasting a population of 20 million nationals and 10 million foreigners with large oil and mineral reserves, Saudi Arabia has no parliament, no elections, and no democratic processes whatsoever.
All internal and external policies are made by one man, Mohammad bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, deputy prime minister, minister of defense, chairman of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, and chairman of the Council of Political and Security Affairs.
MbS is a punisher. He ordered the murder and dismemberment of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. He kidnapped and beat up Lebanon’s former prime minister Saad Hariri before forcing him to broadcast his resignation from Riyadh. He besieged Qatar, destabilized Iraq, and boycotted all of Lebanon because of a single comment on the Yemen war. The list goes on.
A few years back, Ben Rhodes, deputy national security advisor of former US president Barack Obama, recounted a chilling story during his boss’s farewell visit to Riyadh. As Obama protested the recent execution of 47 dissidents in the kingdom to King Salman, the then-deputy crown prince MbS stood up from his spectator’s seat and lectured the US president thus:
“You don’t understand the Saudi justice system, he said. He argued that the Saudi public demanded vengeance against criminals, and those who had been beheaded had to be killed for the sake of stability in the kingdom.”
MbS may simply have reverted to ‘punisher’ mode in these last weeks and months of his very personal war in Yemen. ‘Vengeance’ for his defeat is merited; and killing is “for the sake of stability in the kingdom.”
But bombing Sanaa will also justify ‘Balance of Deterrence 9,’ a new set of advanced retaliatory strikes yet to be announced by Ansarallah.
Undoubtedly, ARAMCO and major Saudi cities will be targeted in the period ahead. Every ballistic missile reaching the kingdom of sand will result in a weaker Saudi Arabia and stronger Yemen, giving Ansarallah a reason to discipline the Saudis at present, and perhaps, to invade them in the future. Thus, the quote “Sanaa is far, Riyadh is getting closer” was born.
Credit: Cartoonist Kamal Sharaf; @kamalsharaf on Twitter
Under the command of MbS, the Saudis are unlikely to leave Yemen alone even if the war concludes – it will try to do what it has always done in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Qatar, and Syria, dividing populations with money and weapons.
But Yemen is different. Ansarallah will implement their own institutions, unlike those other nations where the US and its regional allies remain to engineer laws and policies to ensure a country’s dependence and stagnation once they depart. Yemen, after the war, will be more like Iran in its hostility towards and determination to break with externally-imposed agendas.
Buckle your seatbelt. Retaliation and revolution is about to be unharnessed in the Arabian Peninsula.
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.
Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General His Eminence Sheikh Naim Qassem warned that “Any ‘Israeli’ attack on Lebanon will be met with a response from Hezbollah. Even if [Lebanon] is dragged to a war, we will face this war. Our weapons are loaded. If we need more [weapons] – we have our ways to rearm ourselves.”
In an interview with Al-Manar TV, Sheikh Qassem added: “We are waiting for the Lebanese government’s position on the indirect negotiations with [the ‘Israeli’ enemy] regarding the border issue, and when our turn arrives, we will do our duty.”
On another level, His Eminence announced: “If the companies and the central bank don’t take action to secure the country’s fuel needs, we will continue to bring in petroleum products. Hezbollah is ready to bring in diesel through official border crossings, but some in the country are afraid of the US and its sanctions.”
Sheikh Qassem also reiterated that “the Iranian diesel that entered Lebanon is a national commodity.” He revealed that “the quantity requested by the Lebanese merchants is about 25 million liters,” and he pointed out that “the balance of power is what brought Iranian diesel to Lebanon.”
“I want to ask those who talk about sovereignty how some parties and associations receive their American support.”
Meanwhile, His Eminence highlighted that “Hezbollah’s stock is very important at the level of the whole country, and the party has allies from all sides and within all groups.”
“Those who oppose Hezbollah have a problem with the party because it presented a model in resistance and succeeded in social and political work,” he added.
Sheikh Qassem further blamed “the absence of economic plans, corruption, and American sanctions for leading the country to this state.”
“The Iranian diesel that passed through Syria broke the most important siege on Lebanon in its entire history,” he said, noting that “Iranian diesel elicited an American decision approving the import of Egyptian gas to Lebanon through Syria.”
The Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General also stressed that “the confusion that occurred among the Americans and their scramble to find solutions was caused by Iranian diesel.”
He explained that “the nuclear negotiations, according to the directives from [Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence] Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei, are focused on the nuclear issue, and there are no other topics being discussed.”
“No negotiation took place regarding the issue of diesel or any other issue,” Sheikh Qassim stated. “Iran is helping Lebanon. It has never taken or asked for anything regarding this matter, and we are working for Lebanon and its people.”
In parallel, Sheikh Qassem asserted that “the Lebanese government is responsible for following up on any problems regarding the demarcation of the border.”
“We are waiting for the position of the Lebanese government on the issue of land and sea borders, and when it is our turn, we will do our duty.”
He pointed out that Hezbollah has always been committed to a “government being formed in order to start solving the country’s problems. […] The government can work on the issue of wage correction, addressing the fuel crisis, and curbing the dollar.”
“There is no objection to discussing with the IMF to reach common convictions, but we do not accept a ready-made recipe,” Sheikh Qassem continued.
“The government must develop a rescue plan, with one of its goals being to ease the burden on the people.”
With regard to the upcoming parliamentary elections, Sheikh Qassem voiced support for holding the parliamentary elections on time, adding that now with the formation of the government, the chances of holding the elections have become great.
He also unveiled that “for about eight months, our team has been working on the voter registration list and the distribution of districts, and we have put in place mechanisms to manage the elections. […] We have a structure and are working on it, and all our preparations are ready for the upcoming elections.”
يطلق عادة تشبيه سفينة نوح على إحدى حالتين، الأولى هي تعدد المكونات التي تحملها سواء كان التعدد إشارة للكثرة أو للتناقص، والثاني هو الطابع الإنقاذي الذي مثلته سفينة نوح بتجنيب ركابها خطر الغرق في الطوفان، وسفينة المحروقات التي جلبتها المقاومة من إيران وعبرت ناقلاتها حمولة المحروقات عبر الحدود السورية إلى لبنان، تشبه سفينة نوح في المسار الذي تمثله لجهة تعدد المجالات التي أطلقت فيها مسارات جديدة لم تكتمل عناوينها بعد، أو لجهة موقعها الإنقاذي بتجنيب لبنان خطر الغرق في طوفان كان يهدّد كل شيء بالغرق.
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جاءت سفينة المقاومة كطليعة لأخواتها لتفتح الباب لجملة تطورات في العديد من الملفات، ففي الملف السياسي كانت السفينة رسماً لمعادلة جديدة عنوانها نقل مفاعيل معادلة الردع التي أرستها المقاومة في البر إلى البحار، في لحظة تراجع وارتباك أميركية بعد الانسحاب من أفغانستان بما حمله من تعبير عن الاعتراف الأميركي بفشل اللجوء إلى فائض القوة العسكري لصناعة السياسة، وسعي الإدارة الأميركية لتفادي الانخراط في مواجهات تعرض قواتها وسياساتها للخطر من دون أن تكون هذه المواجهات دفاعاً صريحاً عن الأمن الأميركي بوجه تهديد غير قابل للتأويل، وفي لحظة نزف مستمر لكيان الاحتلال تحت وطأة معادلات المواجهة في فلسطين والقلق من تسييل قوة المقاومة من لبنان نحو فلسطين تحت شعار القدس تعادل حرباً إقليمية، بحيث صارت السفينة تحدياً لقرار بحجم التورط الأميركي «الإسرائيلي» بحرب، أو تقبل تمدّد معادلة الردع نحو البحار كمسار قابل للتوسع، ليست عملية التنقيب عن النفط والغاز واستخراجه إلا أولى الخطوات المرشحة لتشكيل حلقة من حلقاته، أو البحث عن بديل ثالث، بدأت طلائعه برفع الحظر الأميركي عن استعادة العلاقة مع سورية نقيضاً لما بشر به قانون قيصر، من بوابة أولى ستتسع كلما كانت المعادلة حاضرة، وهي ستحضر، والبوابة كانت بالتراجع عن منع رسمي لاستجرار الكهرباء الأردنية والغاز المصري عبر سورية، والخطوة الأهم في البديل التراجعي أمام مسار السفينة كانت بالتدخل الأميركي المباشر للضغط لولادة عاجلة للحكومة ومسابقتها لوصول السفينة، وفتح الباب لتجديد تمويل دعم استيراد المحروقات من قبل مصرف لبنان، وكل الذي يجري يعني القول بالتسليم بالفائض السياسي لمعادلة الردع على البر مقابل تجميد مفاعيلها في البحر، والتجاذب مستمر بين المسارين.
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جاءت السفينة لتصيب كبد النظام الريعي الذي جمع فيه قطاع المحروقات ما كان يمثله أصلاً في بنية النظام الاقتصادي في الحرب الأهلية وبعدها، مع ما ورثه من موقع ومكانة القطاع المصرفي الشريك الكامل في اقتصاد المحروقات الذي تحول إلى ميدان حصري للعمل المصرفي مع توقف نظام الاستثمار في الدين وسندات الخزينة، وقد تحول اقتصاد المحروقات منذ بدء الأزمة إلى نقطة تقاطع الاحتكار وتجار الأزمات ومهربي الأموال إلى الخارج، فهذا الاقتصاد استحوذ بفضل الدعم المشبوه على أكثر من عشرة مليارات دولار من أموال المودعين، شكلت الأرباح منها أكثر من سبعة مليارات منها ما حول للخارج خلسة ومنها ما تحقق عبر التهريب والسوق السوداء، وتشاركت فيه قوى سياسية وتجار كبار ومصارف، وجاءت السفينة لتصيب هذا الاقتصاد في الكبد، فهي تبشر بدخول لاعب كبير، بقياس حجم الكميات التي ستدخل الأسواق، ونظيف وشريف، بقياس عدم سعيه لتحقيق الربح، ووطني، بقياس التزامه بعدم التمييز بين اللبنانيين على أساس المناطق والطوائف في التعامل مع هذا الملف خصوصاً، وبذلك تعيد السفينة تشكيل المشهد الاقتصادي بصيرورة مفتوحة على إعادة تشكيل للأحجام والأدوار والأنماط، وتتيح عبر مركزية قطاع الطاقة وضع الأسس لمفهومين جديدين، التوجه شرقاً، ورفع مكانة القطاعات الإنتاجية.
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جاءت السفينة لتربك التنظيم الاجتماعي القائم على زيادة الأغنياء غنى والفقراء فقراً، لتضع أولوية جديدة في المفهوم الاجتماعي عنوانها أولوية مكانة الفقراء، سواء بحجم مكانتهم في الأولويات أو بحجم النتائج التي ستترتب على جداول نفقاتهم، وسيكون مفاجئاً التعرف إلى ما بدأت ملامحه في مناطق ما كانت لتنفتح يومياً على المقاومة، وأقيمت بينهما جدران عالية، حطمتها السفينة، ولأن الخطر الأكبر الذي أطاح بكل مفاعيل مسعى تغييري شعبي كان الانقسام الطائفي القابل للتحول بسرعة إلى عصبيات قاتلة، فان أهم ما بدأت ملامحه بالظهور مع السفينة هو هذا الانفتاح للمناطق على بعضها من خارج جدران الطوائف والعصبيات، حتى بدأت القوى الطائفية تتحسس الخطر.
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سفينة نوح اللبنانية جمعت عناوين مصيرية كبرى في السياسة والاقتصاد والمجتمع، وشكلت نقطة انطلاق لمسار إنقاذي من الطوفان الذي كانت بوادره تقترب.
UPROOTED PALESTINIANS: SALAM ALQUDS ALAYKUM 
