Haaretz: Sayyed Nasrallah Not Wrong About Stretching “Israeli” Army to the Limit

Haaretz: Sayyed Nasrallah Not Wrong About Stretching “Israeli” Army to the Limit

By Staff, Haaretz

The high alert on the northern border has been in force for more than a month and a half. Under the flood of other news, it’s not the main thing on the mind of the “Israeli” public and media.

According to the “Israeli” news outlet Haaretz, Hezbollah has tried twice to avenge the martyrdom of a fighter martyred in July in an “Israeli” bombing attack at Damascus Airport.

The devastating explosion at the Beirut port on August 4 completely changed the agenda in Lebanon, the news outlet went on to say. But very quickly it became clear that it had no effect on the plans of Hezbollah leader His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who is determined to kill an “Israeli” soldier before declaring a return to calm on the border.

Sayyed Nasrallah is trying to hold the rope at both ends, according to Haaretz. He denies the “Israeli” allegations about the foiling of attempted attacks, but is proud that the “Israeli” army is so tense waiting for Hezbollah’s response.

Haaretz added that the alert along the border has been long and nerve-racking, taking up the time of Military Intelligence as well, far beyond what “Israelis” might think. The “Israeli” army is continuing to call up reservist officers to reinforce command posts, to deploy relatively large forces in the entity’s north and to keep its distance from the fence. It doesn’t want to provide Hezbollah with a target for an operation.

The containment policy was decided at the very top, by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, War Minister Benny Gantz and army chief Aviv Kochavi, the news outlet explained.

For years, the “Israeli” entity has been waging a war between the wars in the north alleging that one of its goals is to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Sayyed Nasrallah establishes a new balance of threats, he can also influence moves attributed to the “Israeli” entity in Syria, according to the “Israeli” daily.

Based on the report by Haaretz, under Sayyed Nasrallah’s formula of deterrence, for every Lebanese death in an “Israeli” attack, even if it occurs in Syria, Hezbollah will mount a response. His Eminence’s temptation lies in stretching the equation to force the entity to think three times before every attack in Syria.

Furthermore, Netanyahu likes to boast about the close strategic and military cooperation with the Trump administration. Several times he has praised Trump for his decision in January to assassinate General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force.

The United States is indeed pursuing an aggressive line against Tehran while gradually stepping up the sanctions pressure. But, like the “Israeli” entity, the Americans have to protect themselves against a possible response to the offensive moves they’ve made.

Al Sayyed Nasrallah and Gratifying Responses السيد نصرالله والأجوبة الشافية

by Nasser Kandil

At a critical juncture coinciding with the commemoration of a distinctive historical event, Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrullah drew for Al Mukawama’s public, and through them to friends and foes, the framework through which Al Mukawama was reading the local, regional, and international scenes vis a vis her progress. He defined Al Mukawama’s perspective, her evaluation of the components of those scenes, and how they will be dealt with.

Reminding his audience of the conclusions and meanings derived from the July War’s historic victory, he reinforced memory, raised consciousness, and defined the reigning equations of the present and the future. Prominent in the new in what he said, in terms of diagnosis and position, can be summarized in two points, as can the implicit messages in what he refrained from saying.

In the explicit and clear section of his speech related to the Occupation, Al Sayyed clearly asserted the certainty of response to the air strike on Damascus Airport, based on the existent deterrence formula, and that it was only a matter of time, waiting, and anticipation of the nature and degree of reckoning the response will carry with it.  He also confirmed that the hypothesis of an Israeli hand in the Beirut Port explosion remained on the table, and negated any thoughts for an international investigation which is expected to destroy any line of inquiry which could lead to the unveiling of any truth assigning to such a hypothesis a high probability.  And in the event that such hypothesis was proven, he asked the Lebanese to ask themselves and to ask each other what positon they would take and how they would deal with it. He made clear that, on her part, Al Mukawama’s response will be certain and be unhesitant, and of the magnitude of a just punishment for such heinous criminality.

In the explicit and clear section related to Lebanon, Al Sayyed described the internal scene and revealed the plot to bring down the Lebanese State and its institutions, leading Lebanon towards a vacuum, chaos, and civil war, through the exploitation of the explosion and its catastrophic aftermath of destruction and tragedy.  He called on Al Mukawama’s public to respond to provocations with patience, and to hold on to their anger for a coming day, without specifying the arena in which it will be used. Given Al Mukawama’s insistence on the preservation of the civil peace in Lebanon, such a call opens the door for the possibility of a confrontation with the Occupation, within the context of a response, and the Occupation’s expected response to the response. Underlying such call is a principle held by Al Mukawama that any changes in the interior start with the implementation of new equations which weaken the Occupation, and through it, the American game plan.

A message  in what was absent from Al Sayyed’s speech relates to keeping the door open to foreign initiatives, at its head the French initiative, which he had described as a positive endeavor in his last speech, but did not mention in the current one. What is implied is Al Sayyed’s comfort with the new political context resulting from President Macron’s recent tweet about the West’s fear of losing Lebanon. A second message which can be deduced from what was unsaid, but alluded to in his statement that the plot towards a vacuum had been foiled, is that the preliminary steps in the formation of a new government are comforting and devoid of any danger signs in that direction.

Based on Al Sayyed’s words, Al Mukawama and her Axis have the strength and the upper hand in the area’s equations, and initiatives in all dossiers related to Lebanon would not have seen the light but for that strength.  Al Sayyed’s words imply that what had taken place, and what will take place on the battlefield and politically, reinforces the principal message from the July War: “The era of defeats has flown and the era of victories has landed.”

Al Sayyed Nasrullah’s explicit words and what remained unsaid in his discourse reassured all supporters of Al Mukawama, on a day of commemoration dear to their hearts.  They also gave gratifying responses to the big questions.

السيد نصراللهوالأجوبة الشافية

ناصر قنديل

في لحظة مفصليّة وذكرى تاريخيّة مميّزة، رسم السيد حسن نصرالله لجمهور المقاومة، وعبره للعدو والصديق، إطاراً لقراءة المقاومة للمشهد السياسي المحلي والإقليمي والدولي المحيط بمسار المقاومة، وحدّد الموقف من تقييم عناصر هذا المشهد وكيفية التعامل معها، وإذا كان التذكير باستنتاجات ومعاني الانتصار التاريخي في حرب تموز ضرورياً لإعادة رسم الذاكرة وبناء الوعي وتحديد إطار المعادلات الحاكمة للحاضر والمستقبل، فإن أبرز الجديد الذي قاله السيد نصرالله في التشخيص والموقف، يتلخص بنقطتين، والرسائل المتضمنة فيما لم يقله تتلخص بنقطتين أيضاً.

في الكلام الواضح والجديد، ما يخص كيان الاحتلال، بتأكيد السيد على أن الردّ على غارة مطار دمشق، وفقاً لمعادلات الردع قادم لا ريب فيه، والمسألة مسألة وقت فقط. وفي الانتظار، ما مضى منه وما سيأتي بعض العقاب، وتأكيد السيد على أن الفرضية الإسرائيليّة في تفجير مرفأ بيروت موجودة على الطاولة، وهي كافية لنفي أي تفكير بتحقيق دوليّ سيتعمدّ تخريب كل مسار يوصل لكشف الحقيقة إذا كانت توصل لترجيح هذه الفرضيّة، وفي حال ثبوت هذه الفرضية فإن اللبنانيين مطالبون بسؤال أنفسهم وسؤال بعضهم لبعض عن موقفهم وكيفية تعاملهم مع هذه الفرضية، أما المقاومة فلا تردّد لديها بأن الرد سيكون حتمياً، وبحجم يستحقه هذا الإجرام.

في الكلام الواضح الجديد، ما يخصّ الداخل اللبناني، بعضه في رسم المشهد وكشف مشروع لإسقاط الدولة في استثمار للتفجير والدمار والخراب والفاجعة، بما يهدّد بأخذ لبنان نحو الفراغ والفوضى والحرب الأهلية، وموقف داعٍ لجمهور المقاومة للصبر على الاستفزاز، ولكن حفظ الغضب ليوم مقبل، والكلام لم يحدّد وجهة لتوظيف هذا الغضب، خصوصاً مع تمسك المقاومة بالبقاء تحت سقف حفظ السلم الأهلي، ما يعني فتح الباب لاحتمال مواجهة مع الاحتلال، في سياق الردّ والردّ المتوقع على الردّ، على قاعدة تلتزمها المقاومة مضمونها أن تغيير الداخل يبدأ بفرض معادلات جديدة تضعف كيان الاحتلال ومن خلاله المشروع الأميركي.

فيما لم يقله السيد نصرالله، رسائل تتصل بإبقاء الباب مفتوحاً أمام المبادرات الخارجية، وفي طليعتها المبادرة الفرنسية، التي وصفها بالمسعى الإيجابي في إطلالته السابقة، ولم يتطرق إليها في هذه المرة، ما يعني ارتياحاً للمسار السياسي الجديد الناتج، كما يقول الرئيس الفرنسي في تغريدة جديدة، عن الخشية من خسارة الغرب للبنان، ومما لم يقله السيد هو أن البحث الجاري في التمهيد للحكومة الجديدة مريح وليس فيه ما يقول بخطر الفراغ، ومصدر الاطمئنان واضح في الإشارة لإسقاط مشروع الفراغ.

وفقاً لكلام السيد، المقاومة ومحور المقاومة من القوة بمكان، ما يجعلهما أصحاب اليد العليا في معادلات المنطقة، وما يجري في الميدان وما سيجري، وما يجري في السياسة وما سيجري، سيؤكد مقولة حرب تموز الرئيسيّة، وهي أن زمن الهزائم قد ولّى وجاء زمن الانتصارات، وأن المبادرات في الملفات كلها نحو لبنان ما كانت لتتمّ لو لم تكن هذه المقاومة بهذه القوة.

السيد نصرالله في ما قاله وما لم يقله قدّم الاطمئنان لمؤيدي المقاومة في ذكرى عزيزة على قلوبهم، وقدّم الأجوبة الشافية على الأسئلة الكبرى.

فيديوات متعلقة

Sayyed Nasrallah: If “Israel” is behind Beirut Blast then It will Pay A Heavy Price

Sayyed Nasrallah: If “Israel” is behind Beirut Blast then It will Pay A Heavy Price

By Zeinab Essa

Beirut – Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivered on Friday a speech commemorating August’s 2006 historic victory over the “Israeli” enemy.

Sayyed Nasrallah: If “Israel” is behind Beirut Blast then It will Pay A Heavy Price

Hailing the sacrifices of the martyrs and their families, Sayyed Nasrallah congratulated all the Lebanese and all free people of the world on this victory.

He further thanked all those who had a role in this battle and in writing this epic of steadfastness and victory. Sayyed Nasrallah also thanked those who contributed to the political administration of this war, particularly President Emile Lahoud. “President Lahoud was unable to manage the negotiations because of the isolation decision that was taken regionally and internationally so this mission was assigned to Lebanese House Speaker Nabih Berri.”

According to His Eminence, “Lebanon fought alone militarily against an army that considers itself the most powerful army in the Middle East and among one of the most powerful armies in the world.”

“2006 war had great strategic, military, security, and cultural results. I will just mention three of them,” he added, noting that “The first result is toppling the new Middle East scheme that the American administration was aiming at implementing.”

In parallel, the resistance Leader underscored that “The new Middle East scheme and the huge push that began with the occupation of Afghanistan and reached Iraq, was toppled in Lebanon.”

“The capture of the two “Israeli” soldiers expedited the timing of the US scheme,” he mentioned, stating that “For the first time, the “Israelis” are living the fear of the existence and survival of this entity in the region is questioned.”

Sayyed Nasrallah also highlighted that “Resilience and resistance in Lebanon toppled the US scheme,” mentioning that “The effects of the military, political and psychological defeat are still strongly present in this entity, and we are still enjoying victory as hope is strongly present.”

“The achievement of the 2000 is liberation, and the achievement of 2006 is protection through the balance of deterrence,” he confirmed.

In addition, His Eminence confirmed that “There is an equation that protects Lebanon, called resistance, through the deterrence equation, and nothing else protects it.”

“Lebanon is strong by this equation, while they seek to get rid of this force,” he stressed, confirming that “The balance of deterrence is getting stronger day after day.”

Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that “The Americans cannot tolerate the survival of a force in Lebanon that will protect Lebanon, its sovereignty, pride, honor and people.”

“Only the balance of deterrence and the ‘army-people-resistance’ equation are protecting Lebanon at the moment,” he said, noting that “They failed in the military war and they know that no military war will be able to affect Hezbollah, so they are trying with other wars, and what is happening with us in Lebanon is part of this battle.”

In addition, His Eminence underlined that “Claims that Hezbollah is practicing hegemony over the Lebanese political life are mere lies and they know this.”

“To us, the resistance is an existential matter. It is the air that we breathe and the water that we drink to stay alive,” Sayyed Nasrallah confirmed highlighting that “Until further notice, and as long as no alternative has been presented, the resistance will remain our choice.”

“For Lebanon and its people, resistance is a condition of existence, and it is our choice,” he asserted, noting that “From the very first day, our choice was to respond to “Israel’s” airstrike in Syria.”

Sayyed Nasrallah went on to say: “What happened since the first day of martyr Ali Mohsen’s fall until today is part of the punishment for the Zionist enemy. The decision to respond aims at fixing the rules of engagement, it doesn’t aim at media exhibition. This is proven by the calculated and serious action.”

In a sounding message to the apartheid “Israeli” entity, Sayyed Nasrallah stated: “The decision to respond to the “Israeli” strike in Syria is still on the table. It is a matter of time and they have to wait. The “Israeli” is still standing on a “one and a half leg” so that his soldiers are not targeted, and this is part of the punishment.”

Commenting on the recent Emirati step of announcing normalization with the apartheid “Israeli” entity,” Sayyed Nasrallah said:

“We have not been surprised by the move of some of the UAE’s rulers. The timing of the agreement between “Israel” and the UAE confirms that some Arab regimes are servants to the Americans. The UAE’s deal is a personal electoral service for Trump and Netanyahu,” he clarified.

Moreover, His Eminence predicted that “We have to expect from now until the time of the American elections that some Arab regimes sign ‘peace’ agreements with ‘Israel’.”

“Until the US Presidential Elections, Trump will continue ‘milking’ the Gulf regimes financially and religiously in what serves him and his friend [“Israeli” PM Benjamin] Netanyahu,” he expected.

Sayyed Nasrallah also said: “The humanitarian, religious, jihadist, national and regional duty makes it a must for me and everybody to stand up and condemn this act which is a betrayal of Islam, Arabism, al-Quds and sanctities.”

“Let us reject with our tongue and the weakest faith is to reject by our hearts,” he stressed.

To the Palestinians, he stated: “We should be angry in our hearts, but not be sad because the masks fell and this is a good thing. When it is destined that the front of right approaches victory, the traitors and stabbers in the back are to get out of it. Their departure from the cause of right, which is the Palestinian issue, will make the resistance front acknowledge well its friend from its enemy.”

“Hezbollah does not have an account of events about the Beirut port blast,” His Eminence asserted noting that “Hezbollah is awaiting the results of the investigation.”

Sayyed Nasrallah underlined that “Theoretically, there are two hypotheses about the causes of the Beirut Port explosion, whether it is accidental or sabotage. Hezbollah is concerned with the resistance’s direct security and we are not capable of shouldering the responsibility for the entire national security with its internal dimension.”

“If the FBI want to investigate in Beirut Port Blast, it means that they will rule out any ‘Israeli’ responsibility in case ‘Israel’ was involved in it,” the Resistance Leader declared, pointing out that “The investigation should be continued and answers should be offered to the Lebanese people.”

He also announced: “Hezbollah, that would never turn a blind eye to killing one of its fighters and insists on fixing this equation, would never remain silent towards a major crime such as the Beirut Port blast if it was committed by ‘Israel’.”

“We do not trust any international investigation,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.

To the enemy and the friend, Hezbollah Secretary General explained: “The account won’t be only for what happened. It will also be for what could have happened. ‘Israel’ will pay a similar price to the size of this crime [Beirut Port blast] if it had committed it. If the investigation determines that ‘Israel’ is involved, the Lebanese state and people should have a say in the issue.”

In addition, he underscored that “The most dangerous thing is that in front of a national calamity of this level, we have witnessed a scheme to topple the state, from which Lebanon escaped. Any political movement must be limited with preventing the collapse of the state and its institutions and the outbreak of a civil war in Lebanon.”

Slamming that “Some Lebanese political forces and media outlets exploited people’s pain to target not only Hezbollah, but also Lebanese President Michel Aoun,” Sayyed Nasrallah announced “In the name of Hezbollah, I do thank PM Hassan Diab and his cabinet, and hail their courage amid all circumstances as they made the best they could, and we understand their resignation.”

“It was not those who toppled the government. The government was toppled by a host of circumstances and difficulties. In fact, a blast of such magnitude would have made it difficult for any government to continue. The Lebanese political forces had sought in the past days to topple the state and put Lebanon on the brink of civil war to serve personal and foreign interests. Hezbollah have always demanded a national unity government or a most possible political and popular representation government,” he said.

Moreover, His Eminence revealed that “The second institution that was targeted is the parliament, with collective resignations, and under the pretext of the constitution, they are practically heading towards toppling the parliament and then calling for early parliamentary elections, and this attempt is doomed to fail.”

According to the Resistance Leader, “Whoever does not abide by the ceiling of not toppling the state, he must have his nationality under question.”

“The caretaker government will assume its responsibilities until a new government is formed,” he said, demanding “a strong, capable and politically protected government.”

Once again, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated that “The talk of a neutral government is a waste of time. Many unethical and provocative practices are suspicious and some embassies which stand behind them will be named someday. The government’s priorities are reforms, reconstruction, and healing the wounds after the port bombing, the financial, economic, and livelihood issue, the criminal and financial investigation, and the fight against corruption.”

Moving to the Special Tribunal of Lebanon [STL], His Eminence repeated: “We’re not concerned with the STL’s rulings. The content of the international tribunal’s decision is not the important thing, it is rather some people’s attempts to abuse it to target the resistance. We cling to the innocence of our brothers should unjust STL verdicts be issued against them.”

To the resistance people, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “There was a state of anger among our supporters over the past days and we sought to control the situation, because clearly some were trying to incite strife. Preserve your anger, as we might need it one day to end the attempts seeking to drag Lebanon into a civil war. As Lebanese, we should be aware that some will try to exploit the rulings and we should show awareness.”

Commenting on the coronavirus developments in Lebanon: Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The Covid-19 pandemic in Lebanon is out of control, we have to live with the Coronavirus measures and those who infects others and lead to their death are killers and have to pay their blood money.”

“With God’s help and the people’s support, we and our allies are the strongest in the region,” he concluded.

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Wanting War but Fearing It vs Not Wanting War and Not Fearing It: A Juxtapositionby Nasser Kandil مَن يريد الحرب ويخشاها مقابل مَن لا يريدها ولا يخشاها!

207 views•Jul 30, 2020

by Nasser Kandil

Wanting War but Fearing It vs Not Wanting War and Not Fearing It: A Juxtaposition by Nasser Kandil Real psychological warfare is the truest expression of the balance of power between two opponents. Real psychological warfare is the one which goes through the minds and hearts of soldiers and officers on opposing sides of a conflict, and not the one which aims at influencing minds and hearts. A moment of confrontation of a different kind circulating in the hearts and minds of the opponents comes at the end of both opponents’ exertion of the utmost of their power to influence hearts and minds, and before the firing of arms. It is this moment which provides a true sampling of the balance of power, which becomes even more evident at the moment of reciprocal fire exchange, and not at the firing from the sense of isolation and terror overtaking one of the opponents, as had occurred in Mazarih Shibaa and recurred in Sahl Al Khiyyam and Aita Al Shaa’b in the very few recent days. The balance of deterrence based on the balance of terror, namely the terror of a bloody and costly war feared by both opponents, is greater than the balance of firepower. What Al Mukawama established in the 2006 war, after having succeeded as a resistance force against an occupying army and forcing it to a humiliating retreat in 2000, was an equivalence in an equation consisting on one side of a higher ratio of elevated morale to a lower ratio of fire power, and a higher ratio of firepower to a lower ratio of morale. In the current confrontation, Al Mukawama, following its achievement of a significant increase in its firepower capacity which has become equivalent to that of its opponent, is heading towards make a big change. The former equivalence it had established has now the possibility of transformation into superiority when the destruction accomplished by air strikes in a confrontation is compared to the destruction precision missiles are capable of achieving. In parallel, the chasm in morale has deepened with the big surplus in high morale on one side, and the profoundly defeated morale on the other. This means a transition from the balance of deterrence based on the balance of terror, to terror on one side and deterrence on the other. A comparison between what has been consistently reflected in the Occupation’s state of being which includes its settlers, political leaders, and its army: officers, commanders, and soldiers, and Al Mukawama, her milieu, and surrounding interior, tells of an equivalence in the negative consequences of COVID-19 and of political and economic fragmentation. It tells of the Occupation’s desire for war, a desire in opposition to its internal conditions and unaccompanied by determination and capability, in absence of which “wear out” will be the leading descriptor, and everything will deteriorate and fall apart. It also reveals that on the opposite side, Al Mukawama, who is considerate of its surroundings, and despite of what she possesses in terms of capability, morale, and cohesiveness in her supportive environment, decides that she does not want a war. The absence of capability puts a restraint on the materialization of the desire for war, because all calculations reveal a fear of war by the Occupation at its popular, political, and military levels. Its counterpart, Al Mukawama, is confident that all will be in her favor, and that she will prevail, should matters slip into a war. In view of her capabilities, she is confident about her readiness to engage in a war and her ability to impose her will on its all fronts, when war becomes an inevitable certainty. For those reasons, she does not fear war. The outcome of what we are witnessing by the minute, hour, and day of this rapidly developing scene is the real psychological warfare taking place in the hearts and minds of commanders, elites, and soldiers of an Occupation strongly desirous of a war but fearing it even more strongly, and its opponent totally undesirous of war and yet totally unafraid of it. A graph depicting battlefield conditions drawn through these points will reveal one section on the graph living a reality of terror, confusion, and hallucination, in juxtaposition to the other section living a state of confidence, security, and steadfastness.

مَن يريد الحرب ويخشاها مقابل مَن لا يريدها ولا يخشاها!

ناصر قنديل

تشكّل الحرب النفسية الواقعية التعبير الأعلى عن مصداقيّة موازين القوى بين المتحاربين. والحرب النفسية الواقعية هي تلك الحرب التي تدور داخل عقول وقلوب الجنود والضباط والقادة على طرفي المواجهة، وليست تلك التي تدور للتأثير على هذه العقول والقلوب. فبعد أن يُدلي كل من الفريقين بدلوه ويفعل كل ما يستطيع ويرمي بثقله للتأثير على موازين العقول والقلوب، تبدأ لحظة المواجهة قبل إطلاق النار، بحروب من نوع آخر تدور في العقول والقلوب على الجبهتين المتقابلتين، وتقدّم لنا عيّنة عن موازين قوى ذات صدقية سنشهدها بوضوح أشدّ عندما يبدأ إطلاق النار المتبادل، وليس إطلاق الوحشة التي تصيب أحد الطرفين تعبيراً عن حال الذعر التي تسيطر عليه، كما جرى أول أمس في مزارع شبعا وتكرّر ليل أمس قرب سهل الخيام وعيتا الشعب.

توازن الردع، الناتج عن توازن رعب، الرعب من حرب مكلفة ودامية يخشاها الفريقان، هو أكبر من توازن في القوة النارية، فبعدما تفوّقت المقاومة بكونها مقاومة على جيش احتلال وفرضت عليه الانسحاب الذليل من جنوب لبنان عام 2000، خاضت في حرب تموز 2006 معركتها لصناعة معادلة التكافؤ الردعي بين منسوب مرتفع من القوة المعنوية مع منسوب منخفض من القوة النارية، من جهة؛ وفي الجهة المقابلة منسوب معاكس، مرتفع في القوة النارية ومنخفض في القوة المعنوية، وهي تتجه في المواجهة الراهنة لتغيير كبير في المعادلة، حيث تحققت نسبة عالية من التعادل في القوة النارية قابلة للتحول إلى اختلالها لصالح المقاومة عندما تصير المواجهة بين ما تفعله غارات الطيران وما تحققه الصواريخ الدقيقة. وبالتوازي تعمّقت الهوة المعنويّة، بين منسوب فائض في المعنويات المرتفعة، وحضيض المعنويّات المنكسرة. وهذا يعني الانتقال من توازن الردع المؤسس على توازن الرعب، إلى رعب من طرف واحد، وردع من طرف مقابل.

الصورة التي عكستها وتعكسها حال كيان الاحتلال مستوطنين وقادة سياسيين، وجيشاً ضباطاً وقادة وجنوداً، تقول بالمقارنة مع المقاومة وبيئتها والساحة المحيطة بها داخلياً، إن هناك توازناً في التأثيرات السلبية لكورونا، والتشظي السياسي الداخلي، تقابله في الكيان رغبة معاكسة للظروف والمناخات الداخلية وغير مشفوعة بعزيمة وقدرة، عنوانها الرغبة بالحرب، لأنه من دونها كل شيء يتداعى، وكل شيء ذاهب للمزيد من التدهور، والاهتراء سيد المواقف. وعلى الضفة المقابلة تقف المقاومة المراعية لما يحيط بها، رغم ما لديها من مقدرات وروح معنوية وبيئة حاضنة متماسكة، وتقرر أنها لا تريد الحرب، ومقابل الرغبات المتعاكسة نحو الذهاب للحرب، كابح غياب القدرة يحول دون ترجمة الرغبة لدى كيان الاحتلال، حيث كل الحسابات الميدانية تقول إن الكيان بمستوياته الشعبية والسياسية والعسكرية يخشى هذه الحرب، يوازيه لدى المقاومة شعور بالثقة بأنه إذا انزلقت الأمور نحو الحرب فكل شيء سيكون لصالحها وستفوز بنتيجتها، وبالنظر لما لديها من مقدرات فهي واثقة من أنها جاهزة لخوض غمار الحرب إذا صارت خياراً حتمياً، وفرض إرادتها في ميادينها، ولذلك فهي لا تخشاها.

حاصل الحرب النفسية الواقعية الذي نشهده كل يوم وكل ساعة وكل دقيقة في هذا الظرف المتسارع، بما هي حرب داخل العقول والقلوب، على مستوى القادة والنخب والجنود، يقول، إننا أمام طرف يريد الحرب بقوة لكنه يخشاها بقوة أكبر، ومقابله طرف لا يريد الحرب بالمطلق، لكنه لا يخشاها بالمطلق، وعلى هذه النقاط البيانية يرتسم خط بياني للأوضاع الميدانية، تظهر وقائعه بطرف يعيش حال الهلع والارتباك والهلوسة، ويقابله طرف يعيش حال الثقة والطمأنينة والثبات.

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Israel on High Alert after Hezb Allah Mourns One of their Soldiers

July 22, 2020 Arabi Souri

Hezb Allah Martyr Ali Kamil Jawad killed near Damascus by Israel bombing
Hezb Allah Martyr Ali Kamil Jawad killed near Damascus by Israel bombing

Israel is on ‘one and a half leg’, again, after Hezb Allah mourned one of its members killed in the Israeli bombing south of Damascus the evening of Monday.

Hezb Allah, the popular Lebanese resistance party with a regional footprint issued two consecutive statements about the death of one of its members, the first of which only mentioned that ‘a member of the Islamic resistance has martyred while conducting his duties,’ to be followed by another statement which was swiftly picked by Israeli media and observers in the region, the statement added that the martyr was killed during the Israeli bombing south of Lebanon.

There’s a deterrence formula established between Hezb Allah and the Netanyahu regime, especially after Netanyahu killed two members of the Hezb Allah party in their apartment in Aqraba, south of Damascus end of August last year, which was avenged by the Hezb Allah party in a cross border military operation after exactly one week of high tensions that made Netanyahu troops empty their heavily fortified barracks north of occupied Palestine until the Hezb Allah media announced they have avenged the killing.

There will be a response to this killing. Initial reports after the Israeli bombing stated that 7 Syrian soldiers were injured in this aggression, it seems this member of Hezb Allah was embedded in the post, maybe in a nearby facility, the following two statements by Hezb Allah confirm there will be a response.

Hezb Allah Military Parade
Hezb Allah Military Parade

The chief of Hezb Allah Sayyed Hasan Nasr Allah has declared more than once that any targeting of their members by Israel whether in Lebanon or elsewhere by Israel there will be retaliation against Israel south of Lebanon – north of occupied Palestine.

A soldier of Netanyahu’s IDF forces was killed and an officer was injured in a vehicle accident south of Lebanon while on their high alert, unrelated, maybe, but karma works in a weird way.

Nobody is more on high alert than the Israeli media now anticipating the response by Hezb Allah, who didn’t even mention any response now but Sayyed Hasan Nasr Allah has absolute credibility in the region, including in Israel, therefore, based on the previous warnings of Nasr Allah there will be revenge.

Netanyahu’s chief of staff has warned that Israel will retaliate any retaliation by Hezb Allah for its slain soldiers, how much credit does Israeli officials have is very questionable.

Hezb Allah is operating in Syria upon a Syrian Army request to join in defending the region from terrorist groups, gain experience in all sorts of warfare, and to protect the victory against terror from the non stop US sabotage attempts by all means and sorts.

Netanyahu Played with Fire, Now for the Burning Hands Part

‘Israel’ on Alert after Hezbollah Announces Martyrdom of Fighter in Syria Strike

Israel Avivim strike Hezbollah

 July 22, 2020

Zionist entity has been on alert since Tuesday after Hezbollah announced martyrdom of one of its fighters in an Israeli strike on southern Damascus late Monday.

Israeli Channel 12 that Israeli occupation army were on alert on the Zionist entity’s northern border after the group announced in a statement martyrdom of Ali Kamel Mohsen who fell during an Israeli strike on Syria.

Maariv newspaper, late Tuesday, also expected retaliation by Hezbollah in the Zionist entity’s north.

The Jerusalem Post followed up on pro-Resistance social media accounts, noting that as activists mourned the martyr, they vowed revenge against the Zionist entity.

The JPost’s article was entitled: “Hezbollah threatens Israel after member killed in Syria.”

For its part, Israeli Kan Channel reported an Israeli state of “fear of Hezbollah’s response”, following the organization’s announcement that one of its operative was killed in Syria attack.

“If the equation set by (Hezbollah S.G. Sayyed Hasan) Nasrallah is still working, then Israel must be ready for Hezbollah’s retaliation,” Youness Zaatari, Lebanese activist who follow up on Israeli media quoted military correspondent of Kan Channel as saying.

The correspondent was referring to an equation set by Sayyed Nasrallah during a ceremony in January 2015 where Hezbollah was honoring six of his members who were martyred in an Israeli strike on Quneitra.

“From now on, when any Hezbollah cadre or fighter is killed, we will hold ‘Israel’ responsible, it will be our right to respond at any place and time and in any way we find it appropriate,” Sayyed Nasrallah said in a speech on January 30, 2015.

Last year in August, two Hezbollah fighters were martyred in a strike on Syria. The strike was followed by a drone attack on a Hezbollah media office in Beirut’s southern suburb (Dahiyeh). The Zionist entity back then stayed on alert for more than a week until Hezbollah staged retaliatory strike on Avivim base on September 1, 2019.

On Wednesday, Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar reported that Hezbollah Resistance groups raised level of readiness in a bid to monitor activity of Israeli occupation soldiers at the border between Lebanon and the occupied territories.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

Israeli Military Forces Deployed on Lebanon’s Border Hide Away for Fear of Hezbollah Response

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The Israeli military units deployed on Lebanon’s border have been hiding away since Hezbollah announced one of its fighters was claimed by the Zionist aerial attack on Damascus Monday night, Al-Manar reporter.

The reporter added that Zionist military drills in Shebaa Farms cause a fire in the area, noting that the UK ambassador to Lebanon, Chris Rampling, was detected touring the Lebanese-Palestinian borders.

Latest media reports noted that one Zionist soldier was killed in a vehicle crash near Lebanon’s border.

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Americans striving to return Lebanon to chaotic situation: West Asia commissioner for human rights

Source

By Mohammad Mazhari

July 3, 2020 – 13:28

TEHRAN – The commissioner for West Asia at the International Human Rights Commission is of the opinion that the U.S. is using all means to push Lebanon toward chaos.

“Americans are striving with all means to return the chaotic conditions in Lebanon again,” Haissam Bou-Said tells the Tehran Times when asked about U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea who last week accused “Hezbollah of destabilizing the country and jeopardizing Lebanon’s economic recovery.”

Shea’s statement was considered by many Lebanese as offensive, pitting rival groups against each other.

Analysts likened Shea’s words to pouring oil on the fire of sectarian strife in the country.

Bou-Said is among those who say the ambassadors must avoid interfering in the host country’s internal affairs.

“Interfering in the host country’s internal affairs, inciting any group to another group, calling for participation in demonstrations, gatherings, and meetings for a coup against the host authority or creating any riot is unacceptable.” Bou-Said points out.

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: Many Lebanese accuse U.S. ambassador of obviously interfering in Lebanese internal affairs and violating international conventions. What is your comment on it?

A: These are not just accusations, but a reality that has occurred since she arrived in Lebanon and assuming her duties as U.S ambassador to Lebanon. What Ambassador Dorothy Shea has done in the media through her statements is baseless, false, and offensive to the Lebanese people; few of the Lebanese people agree with what she said, for political and sectarian reasons. It is true that we, as an international human rights committee, cannot agree on the necessity of acquiring a weapon of any size, however by the principle of deterring the Israeli regime that occupied Palestine and still violates every day the rights of Muslims and Christians together, it becomes necessary to find ways to defend.

Q: What are the reasons for making such provocative statements in such a situation? Should we expect new developments?

A: The reasons to make such statements at this time and intentions of the American administration is obvious; They are striving with all means to return the chaotic conditions again, especially if we take many factors into account, including worldwide protests against racism in the United States. After the American police killed George Floyd, and their efforts to reinvigorating the extremist “takfiri” groups in West Asia and North Africa, as well as the Caesar Law passed in 2016 which was activated a few weeks ago.

Yes, in response to the second part of your question, we have to be somewhat cautious because the rapid developments in the Arab streets, especially in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, and probably soon in Tehran according to the information we receive, indicate malicious intent on the pretext of human rights. Still, the center for planning these developments is in another place designed to apply the “American and Israeli” agenda in the region.

Q: How do you evaluate Lebanese officials’ reaction to the controversial statements of the American ambassador?

A: We issued a statement supporting the Lebanese prime minister’s reform plan presented to the Lebanese Parliament. This plan is faltering as a result of conflicts between political groups in Parliament, and this reflects on the government’s performance in terms of making decisive decisions. However, in the case of Ambassador Dorothy Shea, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr. Nassif Hitti summoned the American ambassador on Monday afternoon to inform her of the government’s dissatisfaction with her statements and interventions in Lebanese internal affairs under Article 41 of the Vienna Convention of 1961. But it seems that Ambassador Shea, who is not from President Trump’s school, in her military experience, has yet to understand how dangerous it is to break the law.

In the second part of your question, we have asked for the international article’s application that explicitly indicates the warning or expulsion of any diplomat doesn’t respect international conventions.

Q: What do international conventions say about missions of ambassadors?

A: Ambassadors in the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations 1961 have many advantages that cannot be mentioned here, and the most important advantages are diplomatic immunity, which allows them not to appear in the judiciary and not be held accountable in any government department in the host country, but there are also regulations and standards for ambassadors prohibit engaging in any business or any work that might result in financial benefits for them.

Moreover, any kind of interfering in the host country’s internal affairs, inciting any group to another group, calling for participation in demonstrations, gatherings, and meetings for a coup against the host authority or creating any riot is unacceptable.

Q: What is the basic reason for the current economic crisis in Lebanon?

A: The economic crisis in Lebanon today is the result of the accumulations of wrong policies and financial engineering carried out by previous governments since 1992, when former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri came to power, bringing the economic sector under the control of his government. Lebanese central bank governor Riad Salameh occupied his position with absolute powers during Prime Minister Hariri’s term. Therefore the current economic crisis in the country is the result of those policies that did not succeed for many different reasons, including the failure of the peace negotiations in 1993, which was counted on by Hariri’s government, as well as financial waste in Lebanese administrations as a result of conflicts between political groups. There are also productive and non-productive projects that have also been the basis for being shared between political parties, each benefited according to the size of its parliamentary bloc and its representation in the government.

Today, Diab’s government tries to manage and contain the consequences of those policies; some political leaders in Lebanon are still active and sabotaging the efforts to support the Lebanese government, which decided to turn towards the East to find financial aid and rise again.

“Mission Accomplished”… How Did Hezbollah Build Its New Equation?

By Charles Abi Nader

“Mission Accomplished”...   How Did Hezbollah Build Its New Equation?
The mission is accomplished (CLICK FOR VIDEO)

It is true that the media of the ‘Israeli’ Enemy and their analysts have expressed astonishment on the film that the Hezbollah media have published recently. The film featured specific goals inside the ‘Israeli’ entity along with a voice commentary belonging to the Hezbollah’s secretary general.  The commentary carried clear messages to the enemy which said that “the mission is accomplished” and that Hezbollah now holds precise missiles that are capable of accurately targeting most of the enemy’s strategic, dangerous and sensitive locations. However, practically, the enemy wasn’t surprised by the message as it was in fact waiting and expecting it. Also, it has put the manner of dealing with Hezbollah as its first priority and within the goals of facing it.

Of course, the enemy’s leadership knew very well that all that Hezbollah has reached concerning its qualified missile capabilities was due to its hard work. Hezbollah has been working and planning hardly and effectively. ‘Israel’ has tried hard to prevent it whether be it in politics, sanctions, diplomacy, and air and missile strikes. However, it seems to have failed in all that. Saying that, how then did Hezbollah build its new equation and what is it based on?

What is the equation based upon?

In practice, Hezbollah’s new equation which goes under the title “mission accomplished” is based upon the possession of specific missiles that are capable of aiming at any target that Hezbollah chooses and at any time it wants. In other words, all of this is present despite the ‘Israeli’ defensive measures. It has become an inevitable destiny.

The enemy has expressed the sensitive and dangerous aspects of the topic from the technical and military points of view through a study conducted by the strategic Begin-Sadat Center. Many foreign and regional media outlets have pointed at this study which was done by “Uzi Rubin” who previously headed the HITZ anti-missile defense project in the Ministry of ‘Security’. Rubin pointed out that “Israel” has put remarkable efforts to thwart the precision project Hezbollah is working on. If it masters it, Hezbollah will then own its special air force, along with an aerial offensive superiority excluding aircraft. This means that the precise missiles will be able to fully and successfully operate and target any location just like any developed bomber.

The credibility of the study that the aforementioned center has published is based on its comparison between Iran’s targeting of Ain al-Assad base in response to the martyrdom of Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, and the dysfunctioning of American capabilities [both missile defense and electronic defense] against the missiles precision and the inevitability of reaching their targets.

The aforementioned center goes on to declare that in practice, the equation of the precise missiles will achieve its purpose in the future. This will be demonstrated in any future war when Hezbollah tries to carry out its own “Operation Focus”. This will be applied using precise missile salvos that will paralyze ‘Israeli’ air bases as soon as the battle begins.  It warned also that the active “Israeli” ‘defense’ comprising the “Iron Dome”, “David’s Sling”, or a very powerful Laser in the future does not guarantee an airtight aerial dam.

And according to the center, “Operation Focus” means  the pre-emptive air strike that ‘Israel’ used to start “the six day war” (1967) on the airports and the Arab air forces. The result was an outstanding air success launching absolute aerial superiority for the ‘Israeli’ air forces and a free support force for the ground forces during the war.

How did Hezbollah build this equation?

Hezbollah built the precise missile equation through a long path of training, planning, learning, and work that is secretive, dangerous and sensitive. This path has resulted in many martyrs and losses in equipment, vehicles and other logistic means and capabilities.  This construction process can be divided into two main phases which are: 

The first phase includes receiving or [manufacturing], transferring and hiding the missiles. This phase was among the most dangerous. It used to take place during the Syrian war which came in parallel with the defensive and offensive military operations that support and back the Arab Syrian army. The sensitive part of this stage was Hezbollah’s commitment not to respond to “Israel” that was trying to target the missiles transfer or the stored ones pending their transfer. This has always been the case as it was in constant search for a reaction to those targetings. Its manner wasn’t to find a pretext for starting a war because in fact it didn’t want one and kept far away from it. On the contrary, it sought and planned to use Hezbollah’s response as an excuse which it would take to the international forums. It also sought to rely on this response to extract decisions from the Security Council which permits the international community to carry out military action under chapter VII of disarming Hezbollah.

So, during the stage of possessing the missiles, Hezbollah was able to maintain its stubborn strategy in patience. Only by confronting this was it able to prove and impose a rule of engagement related to balanced and local responses to any targeting, martyrdom or injury of any of its members in Syria or Lebanon. Outside these areas, Hezbollah abided by the rule of not responding.

The last stage included the appliance of a program that concerns the arrival of a certain amount (its percentage is not clear) of missiles that it possessed to make it precise. This process relied on two directions. The first one has to do with confidentiality at work, in planning and during study and practice. The second one is more practical and is based on acquiring technical and scientific capabilities (acquired after an extended period of time) which it acquired through training, learning, or a number of engineers and technicians. Moreover, the rule of (making the missiles precise) is based on developing and modernizing the dual guidance system. The first one which is organically found on the missile and has to respond and deal with the second. This second one which is the external orientation system is found in the hands of the team which determines the targets and the orientation of the missiles and fixes it on the right path. It also bypasses the enemy’s defense means from counter missiles or from jamming and wasting devices.

After proving that Hezbollah has precise missiles and referring to the credibility of the words of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah “mission accomplished” what will “Israel’s” next strategy for confrontation be in the days to come?

Maybe the coming days will give us the sensitive answer we are pondering upon.

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كي لا تكون الآن نكبة

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كي لا تكون الآن نكبة
من ذاكرة النكبة: نساء وأطفال من احدى القرى الفلسطينية على درب الهجرة الطويلة (أرشيف مجلّة «تايم»)

فلسطين كمال خلف الطويل

الجمعة 15 أيار 2020

لعلّ من بين كلّ أعوامها السبعين ونيّف، لذكرى نكبة 1948 هذا العام بالتحديد، مذاقٌ مغاير… لماذا؟ نظرة طائرٍ على فلسطين وما حولها، عند ذكراها الحالّة، تُري الناظر حزمة مشاهد كونية وإقليمية ومحلية، فيها من التداخل ما يوجب استدخالها في استشراف طيّات القادم:

1

ــــ شلل «كوروني»، جزئي أو نسبي، لقدرات القوى الكبرى في خوض صراعات حاميةٍ أو حتى فاترة، سواء بينها أم بين حلفائها الإقليميين، وانعكاس ذلك على مسرح الحوادث تهدئةً أو «تباعد» اشتباك.
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ــــ تداعٍ اقتصادي يعمّ المنطقة، بفعل عاملَي سقوط سعر النفط والوباء الـ«كوروني»… لا يوفّر غنيةً أو فقيرةً من كياناتها، بل ينيخ بكلكله على مستقبلها، القريب منه والبعيد.
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ــــ ميزان قوىً رجراج في المنطقة، لا يسمح لقوة إقليمية بحسم الصراع لصالحها على حساب غيرها:

إسرائيل، أعجز عن كسر إيران، أو حليفاتها، حتى إن قدِرت على إيذائها سورياً، وقدِرت راعيتها، الولايات المتحدة، على إنهاكها بحصار العقوبات. في المقابل، نراها تتحضّر لالتهام جغرافيا القدس والمستوطنات والأغوار، بالتواطؤ مع الدولة الأميركية الترامبية، تحت اعتقاد أنّ جو الوباء كفيلٌ بشلّ أحدٍ عن فعل صدٍّ أو منعٍ أو كبحٍ.
تركيا، غير قادرة على إنفاذ رغائبها في الشمال السوري، من دون تمكين روسي وسكون أميركي، ناهيك بانكشاف اقتصادها أمام غائلة غارات خصوم الخليج وغيرهم، بسعي ضرب اقتصادها ولَيِّ ذراعها استراتيجياً. في المقابل، نراها تعوّض محدودية نجاحها السوري، عبر العقد المنصرم، بمطاولةٍ عابرةٍ لشرق المتوسط، و«متشاطئة» مع ليبيا غازاً ونفطاً.

السعودية، مكسورة في أعزّ ما تملك: مال النفط؛ مستنزفة بعبثها الحربي في اليمن، قليلة حيلة أمام من تعتبره خصمها التليد: إيران، وخاسرة في الشمال العربي. في المقابل، هي بين بين في الساحة الليبية، وممسكة بأعنة القرار المصري، بالشراكة مع حليفتها الإماراتية.

إيران، محاصَرة حتى الثمالة في معاشها، معوقة سورياً، متساكنة مع شيطانها التليد في العراق، وحتى لبنان، ومحاطة بسوار قواعد أميركية في البر والبحر. في المقابل، عندها من مقدرة المصابرة والدفع ما كسر مشعر غينيس.
طيّب، لنرَ كيف هو المؤثر الدولي عندنا: في الخلفية شبح الوباء المقعِد، للكل. هذا في عموم. أما في خصوص، فلم يعد هناك ما تستطيع الولايات المتحدة فرضه بالقوة، لا بل إنّ عملية إعادة تموضعِ لقدراتها قد بدأت قبل الوباء، وها قد تسارعت بعده، محفّزةً بنتائج ما سبق من فرط تمدد، بدّد 8 تريليون دولار في مجروره، وبدّد معه عشرية بكاملها، هي أولى عشريات القرن. والشراكة الروسية ـــــ الصينية ما زالت أقدر على الإعاقة منها على الفرض، سواء بالاختيار صينياً ـــــ وهو الآن آيل ـــــ أم بالاضطرار روسياً.

كيف ينعكس ذلك كله في، وعلى فلسطين الآن؟ من منظور اليمين الإسرائيلي (وإسرائيل كلّها الآن يمين… لكنّه قبلي ومحترب، فتوراً الآن وربما سخونةً ذات وقت)، ورديفه الترامبي، فشلل الوباء سانحٌ لقفزة ضمٍّ ما فتئ الأول يتلمّظ عليها لعقود، ويعقد الثاني عزمه على نصرته، إنْ من زاوية تمكين إسرائيل وكيلاً إقليمياً، أم لجهة تلبية مطلب بيئته الانتخابية المزمن… هذا في النية. طيّب، ما هي فاعلةٌ الإقليميات الثلاثة، سوى إسرائيل… والكونيتان، سوى الولايات المتحدة… وأضيف، أوروبا؟

برغم إقعاد الوباء العمومي، إلا أنّ الإقليمي الأكثر فعّالية فلسطينياً هو إيران، وعلى مسارح متعدّدة: سوريا ولبنان وغزة. ذلك أنها، ببساطة، من انكبّ ـــــ وما انفكّ ـــــ على بناء منظومة صاروخية، نوعية كما كمّية، عبر الشمال العربي، مع صلةٍ بغزّة، وعبر سنوات سبع ونيّف، صارت توفّر قدرة ردع ما قبل ـــــ متكافئة، وتكاد تشطب قدرة إسرائيل على شنّ حرب هجومية على المحيط. لكنّ إيران وحليفاتها، لم تبلغ بعد حدّ القدرة على كبح نية إسرائيل ضمّ نصف الضفة الغربية. ما الذي ينقص؟ غياب شريك عربي مركزي، واضطراب العلاقة الإيرانية ـــــ التركية سورياً، وافتقاد سند دولي فارق.

أين السعودية اليوم؟ هي تجرّب رفقة طريق مع إسرائيل، بظنّ أنْ تقيها من «غائلة» إيران، في مقامرة غير محسوبة للتيار المتنفّذ في العشيرة الحاكمة، وكفيلةٍ، مع انكسار «رؤية» هذا التيار، بنضوب خزائنه نفطياً وشعائرياً، وبخسائره اليمنية الفادحة، أن تهزّ الأرض من تحته، بغضّ النظر عن أي أثر لغواية اللهو والمِتع بعد طول تضييق. ذات الحال يسري على محيطها، وعلى «مصرها».

وبعلم أنّ تركيا، مِثلها مثل إيران، لا ترتفع مقاماً كقوة إقليمية إلا بخفض مقام إسرائيل، وبه فقط تصبحان «عُظمَيين» لا عاديتين… إلا أنّ إشغال تركيا نفسها في متاهةٍ سوريةٍ من صنع يديها، وبخطايا حساب أحمق أجراه صنّاع قرارها في خريف 2011، قد كفّ قدرتها على أن تكون وازنة كفايةً قبالة إسرائيل فلسطينياً، رغم اشتغالها على الناحية العقارية في القدس وغيرها، وبحساب عونها السياسي والإعلامي. ما تحتاج إليه هو أن تدرك، لتوّها، مركزية تنزيل إسرائيل من عليائها، عن أي شأن مشرقي آخر. لقائل أن يقول: وكيف لتركيا أن تفيق إلى واجبها الفلسطيني وهي مكبّلة بقيود ناتوية؟ والحال أنْ ليس من قيود تكبّل، وصفقة «س 400» شاهدة.

في الكوني، هناك مسألة أقيس عليها ابتداءً: لا ترى إسرائيل في روسيا أو الصين، حليفاً أو شريكاً أو صديقاً. من ينفرد بامتلاك هذه الصفات وأكثر (الراعي)، هي الولايات المتحدة. روسيا والصين، هما عند إسرائيل مشروعا تنافع، وفي حالة روسيا بالذات طرفٌ تدير معه ترتيبات منع اشتباك… ولا تني الولايات المتحدة تذكّر إسرائيل بسقفها الواطئ لمنسوب التنافع. كلتاهما ترى في ضمّ نصف الضفة، تخريباً لحلٍّ في فلسطين طالما تاقتا إليه، وعسفاً وخيماً بظلامة شعبها لن يلبث أن يوقد النار في غرب آسيا. لكن تنطّحهما لدور معيق، يحتّ من جموح الولايات المتحدة، لا يتصلّب عوداً إلا باستناده إلى جدار إقليمي صلد، أي تركو ـــــ إيراني، والذي صار أكثر إمكانية وسط تحديات الوباء واصطفافاته. يُضاف إلى ذلك، توق الصين بالذات إلى تعرّض «إيجابي» للولايات المتحدة، وليس أعزّ من جبهة لها من إسرائيلها، سيما وأمر خسفها الصلة الصينية ــــــ الإسرائيلية صار في التداول. أوروبا الرسمية، في المقابل، لا تجيد إلا الخنوع أمام الأميركو ــــــ إسرائيلي عند الحزّة واللزّة، لكنّ مجتمعاتها في مكان آخر، وسيحفزها في الضغط على رسمياتها شعورها أنّ تماسك المحلّي والإقليمي والأوراسي يتجسّد.

طيّب، هل لقوى الضفة ذاتها من وزن في هذه المعادلة؟ يصح القطع بانعدام ثقة الشعب الفلسطيني في الضفة بقياداتها المتنفّذة، بل وفي ذلك سر تورعه عن إلقاء ثقله في الصراع ثانيةً، طالما تثقل كاهله وتعوق فطرته. شرط عودته ليصبح الرقم الصعب في معادلة الصراع، اضطرارها أن تنزاح عن طريقه، بما فيه نزع قيد أمنها عن رسغه، وإخلاء حاجزه الحارس للاحتلال، وتحوّلها إلى محض سلطة بلدية محلية لا صفة سياسية لها. أول الأوليات، ألا تُترك لتقع في درك غواية الترامبية لها بالتقدّم بمقترح بديل، بل أن تُجبر على التمنّع، ولو اللفظي. إنّ هناك الآن فرصة من أشهر، ألحظ بصددها العوامل التالية:

المؤسسة الأمنية ــــــ العسكرية لإسرائيل خاشية ومحذّرة من عقابيل الضمّ. محميات مصر والخليج تتوسّل براعيها الترامبي، أن يتمهّل في الإذن بالضمّ خشية ما يفرز من عواقب. منظومة الأمن القومي الأميركي تعارض وتُنذر. اليهودية الأميركية منشرخة نصفين، أحدهما معارض. الأردن يتحسّس رقبته. أوروبا تضرب كفّاً بكفّ، فما غرب آسيا إلا رمية حجر. وعليه، فما كان من ضوء أخضر صار أصفر.

طيّب، كيف نحوّل الأصفر إلى أحمر؟ نقطة البداية هي عند «نخب» كلّ فلسطين، فإن التقت على قاسم مشترك أدنى، من دحر الاحتلال واستعادة الضفة، وفق برنامج عملاني، وأطلقت دعوة تقريب «سوري» بين إيران وتركيا يوقف الحرب، وبرهنت لنفسها أولاً، ثم لإيران وتركيا، وخلفهما لروسيا والصين، أنها رافعة داخلٍ وطوق، فتكاملت بها وبهم أساسات سندٍ من فولاذ، صار لزوماً للأطراف الإسرائيلية والأميركية والأوروبية أن تشعل الأحمر.
ولكن… إن أضعنا هذه الأشهر الدانية، فنكون كمن جدّد النكبة.

حماقات الرسائل… وثغرات الحدود

إيهاب زكي

يصدف أننا في شهر شعبان، وفي شهر شعبان من العام 652هـ، أرسل فارس الدين أقطاي رسالة للسلطان عز الدين أيبك، بأنّ عروسه أميرة أيوبية يجب أن تنام في القلعة (مقرّ الحكم في دولة المماليك)، وقد فهم أيبك مضمون الرسالة، بأنّ أقطاي بزواجه من أميرةٍ أيوبيةٍ يعتقد أنّه أصبح أحق بالسلطنة، فنصب له فخاً ثم دعاه إلى القلعة، فانقضّ عليه أمراء أيبك وقتلوه، ثم أمسك أيبك برأس أقطاي وألقاه إلى الجند الذين أتوا للسؤال عن قائدهم ففرّوا جميعاً إلى الشام. وهذا يعني أنّ من يرسل الرسائل المبطنة أو المشفرة، عليه أن يكون حصيفاً بالقدر الكافي ليستقبل الردّ الذي يحب، لا أن يكون أحمقَ أو مغروراً حيث تنتظره المهالك. وهذه الواقعة التاريخية تصلح لإسقاطها على الرسالة التي أرسلتها “إسرائيل” لحزب الله، عبر قصفها سيارة كان يستقلها عناصر حزبية، ولكن رغم ألف نقطة مراقبة مخفية على الحدود ألقى الحزب برأس “إسرائيل” لجنودها من ثلاث ثغرات في السلك الشائك، رغم أنّ الحزب حتى كتابة هذه السطور لم يتبنَّ رسمياً هذا الاختراق.

تحوّل حزب الله من خطرٍ على شمال الأرض المحتلة إلى خطرٍ على أمن “إسرائيل”، ثم إلى خطرٍ استراتيجي على مصالحها، ثم إلى خطرٍ وجودي يهدّد بقاءها. وهي في هذه الحالة كالذي يرتطم بجدارٍ يفتقد للمناطق الرخوة. فتجنّب الحرب يعني أن يراكم الحزب قوةً وقدرة، وافتعالها يعني أنّها القاصمة، و”البروباغندا” التي تسمّيها سياسة “معركة بين الحروب” أثبتت فشلها في تحقيق أيٍّ من الأهداف المرجوّة ميدانياً وسياسياً، لذلك فإنّ السؤال المصيري الذي على صُنّاع القرار في كيان العدو مسارعة الزمن للإجابة عليه هو: “ماذا بعد؟”.

وحتى هذه اللحظة لا إجابات أو حتى مسارات ولو أفقياً بجانب الجدار الصلد، بل مراوحة في المكان، مكان “معركة بين الحروب” مع إنهاك بيِّن، حيث المرة الأولى التي يتعمّد العدو فيها عدم سفك الدم. وهذا لا يعني سوى أنّه منهك عسكرياً واستخبارياً، فعسكرياً هو لا يريد الوقوف مطوّلاً على “إجر ونص”، فضلاً عن تطوّر الوقوف إلى حرب، أمّا استخبارياً فيبدو أنّه يفتقر للمعلومات الدقيقة حول طبيعة وحجم الكادر البشري كما حول النُظم لوجستياً وأمنياً التي يواجه من خلالها حزب الله جائحة كورونا في لبنان، فأراد أن يستنتج جهوزية الحزب عبر هذا الاستهداف المحدّد والمحدود.

قال السيد نصر الله في أحد خطاباته السابقة “إنّ وجودنا في سورية لا يؤثر إطلاقاً في جهوزيتنا على الجبهة الجنوبية”، ومن هنا يجب أن يستنتج العدو أنّه تحت المجهر على الدوام لحظةً بلحظة، وطالما أنّ عدواناً بحجم الحرب على سورية لم يجعل الحزب يغفل لحظةً عن وجوده وتحركاته، فليس من المنطق أن يعلق آمالاً عريضة على جائحة كورونا، ولكن يبدو أنّ افتقاد الخيارات يجعل من مجرد الإعلان عن الوجود خياراً مثالياً، وإلّا فإنّ هذه العملية تفتقر للشجاعة والعزم، وتنمّ عن أيادٍ مرتعشة، وهذا بعكس التصميم الذي يتميّز به حزب الله في تنفيذ وعوده ووعيده.

كما أنّ الحزب الذي يخوض حرباً أمنية قاسية على مدار الساعة مع العدو، يمتاز بالتكتم الشديد، وهو التكتم الذي ينمّ عن أولوية الإنجاز لا غبار التباهي؛ بعكس العدو الذي يبحث عن الاستعراض، حيث يشكل المربّع الأخير لإظهار قدراته، حتى أنّ ما يسمّيها سياسة “الغموض البناء” لم تعد قادرة على بناء ما تثلم من قدراته، لذلك يتخلى عنها لصالح “الانفضاح الهدّام”، حيث انهدام الهيبة التي راكمها على مدار عقود، ويحاول من خلال مراكمة الفضائح أن يصنع ميزان ردعٍ جديداً، وهي من علامات التكلّس التي لا نهاية لها سوى الكسر.

إنّ أهمّ رأسٍ “إسرائيلي” قطعه إحداث الثغرات هو أمن الجدران، فمَن أحدثَ الثغرات طعن نظرية أمن الجدران في مقتل، فلم يعد الكيان في مأمنٍ مهما تسوَّر، وإنّ أمنه المؤقت هو فقط لمجرد أنّ قرار الحرب ليس في وارد الحزب حالياً لأسبابٍ لا تحصى. وهنا على سبيل الاستشهاد فقد لفتتني ملامح الجندي الإيراني، الذي كان على متن أحد الزوارق التي اقتربت من القطعة الحربية الأميركية في الخليج، فلم تكن مجرد ملامحٍ لجندي يمارس مهامه بحزمٍ عسكري، بل كانت ملامح مليئةً بالتحفز والغضب والمقت، وأنّ العائق الوحيد أمامها عن التهام هذه القطعة الحربية حتى بالأسنان هو القرار السياسي حصراً.

وهذه الملامح ذاتها ترتسم حتماً على وجوه مقاتلي حزب الله على الحدود الجنوبية، فهؤلاء المقاتلون لا ينظرون إلى الصراع مع “إسرائيل” باعتباره صراعاً حدودياً، أو من منطلق عدو اليوم صديق الغد، بل صراعاً وجودياً، وأنّ عدو الأمس واليوم هو عدو الأبد. ويقيناً أنّ جنود العدو رأوا نزراً يسيراً من هذه الملامح على مدار سِنيِّ الصراع. وفي النهاية وعلى سبيل الشماتة، فإنّ الإعلام العبري كما النفطي سيفتقد لحفلات اكتشاف “جيش المكتشفين” أنفاق لحزب الله، حيث يبدو أنّ الطريق من فوق الأرض أكثر يُسراً وأقلّ تكلفة وأسرع زمناً.

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A Yellow Card Surprises Tel Aviv

A Yellow Card Surprises Tel Aviv

Jihad Haidar

“Israel” sent a fiery message by targeting a car on Syrian territory that was carrying Hezbollah members. The attack didn’t cause any casualties. It was followed by three “silent” security incidents targeting the border fence with occupied Palestine. The occupation army described the incidents as “very dangerous”. What messages was the enemy trying to send, and how did it assess the response along the border fence?

The recent “Israeli” aggression was an extension of its broader policy towards Syria. It is also clear that it falls within the framework of the “battle between the wars”, which has carried on for more than seven years. However, the enemy’s strategy has gone through several stages. Each of these was based on gambits and estimates related to the prevailing conditions and centered on objectives set by the enemy’s leadership in line with the perceived nature and level of threat.

The aggression also carried another message: amidst the spread of the coronavirus in “Israel”, Tel Aviv would continue its aggressive strategy against the parties of the resistance axis in general, and Hezbollah in particular. As such, it wanted to say that any repercussions from the health and economic crisis would not deter “Israel” from confronting what it sees as a threat to its regional interests.

The enemy apparently wanted to suggest that it was prepared to venture into targeting Hezbollah members as well. It deliberately inflated the message in a bid to add more credibility to it, hoping to raise Hezbollah’s anxiety levels and change the existing equation.

Why did the enemy bet again on this particular stage?

The enemy’s calculations regarding Syria date back to the beginning of 2013, and the assumption that neither Damascus nor its allies in the axis of the resistance are willing to open a second front while faced with the Takfiri threat. This premise constituted the main pillar upon which the aggression was founded and continued until the current stage in which a set of factors and considerations overlapped.

Before the spread of the coronavirus, the enemy was wagering on the notion that the strategy of the axis of resistance was not to respond to these strikes as the strategy was based on a specific order of priorities at this stage. It was also because of specific estimates regarding the repercussions of this course that may result from exchanging fiery messages. The same concept was present among the enemy’s leadership, forcing it to abide by restrictions in order to avoid a scenario leading to a military confrontation that it does not want, at least at this stage.

After the spread of the virus, this approach strengthened within political and security decision-making institution. They seem to understand that Hezbollah has become more eager to avoid a military confrontation in light of Lebanon’s economic and health challenges. This may prompt them to broaden the level of targeting, in the hope that the worsening economic and health situation, locally and regionally, curbs Hezbollah’s influence and pushes it to accept the formula the enemy is aiming to impose.

Nevertheless, it appears that the enemy has also reached a critical conclusion – admitting that all operational, regional, and economic bets have not succeeded in curbing the upward trajectory of the axis of resistance and that of Hezbollah in particular. This prompted “Israel” to try to advance its operational options or to pave the way for such an advancement.

However, it seemed clear that the enemy was keen to avoid human casualties. This is due to its realization that any foolishness in this area will lead to an inevitable response by Hezbollah. In order to avoid this scenario, it was keen not to inflict casualties.

This is what Ron Ben-Yishai, Yedioth Ahronot’s security affairs commentator, explicitly pointed out.

“It was clear to the decision-makers in ‘Israel’ that the liquidation of a Hezbollah operative and official would cause a major escalation. It was clear that Hezbollah would respond. And this currently goes against ‘Israel’s’ interests,” Ben-Yishai said.

The same concept applies to the attack since it was carried out on Syrian soil; based on the equation that developed during the past years in which the Lebanese scene was protected with equations that differ from the regional scene. Otherwise, the enemy could have waited for the car to cross onto Lebanese territory and target it without spilling blood. Thus, the message would be more informative and more severe. It would show more determination from the enemy leadership.

Instead, its eagerness to deliver the message on Syrian soil reflected its concerns about a Hezbollah response. But it seems that the outcome surprised the “Israeli” decision-making establishment.  In the absence of martyrs, “Israel” should have been safe from any response. However, the fence incident muddled its calculations, opening possibilities with more than one scenario that is certain to boost “Israeli” anxiety levels.

The border fence infiltration messages

Hezbollah is yet to issue any statements regarding the incident at the border with occupied Palestine. However, several messages from the incident can be noted.

The enemy was not reluctant to link the two events due to their succession, and the fact that the operations of cutting the fence took place along more than one point with creative tactics that revealed a level of professionalism and creativity. The sensors were unable to detect the men who had outmaneuvered all defensive and control measures. This was acknowledged by ‘Israeli’ television Kan, which pointed out that “the entire border line is filled with a lot of control and defense measures, and the fact that these cells reached the fence and cut openings indicate high professionalism in the implementation, and perhaps in the information they gathered in preparation for cutting these openings.”

The enemy saw in the series of breaches of the fence an embodiment of the ability to infiltrate the borders, if necessary. This is further highlighted by the ‘‘Israel’ Defense’ website, which pointed out that this is one of the most “technological borders” for “Israel”. It gives the resistance – according to Tel Aviv’s political and security decision-making institutions – more cards to counter any aggressive options that require this level of response.

The enemy understood from the border incident that this level of aggressive messages in Syria would be matched by appropriate responses. It can be said that most of the commentators and experts who dealt with the border fence incident recognized this equation and reflected its presence as it should be among the enemy’s leaders. Military commentator for Channel 13, Alon Ben-David, was one of those who drew attention to this.

“Whoever reached the fence and cut holes in three places is telling ‘Israel’ I know how to reach the border. You will not see me. And I will cut holes in the fence whenever I want,” Ben-David said. “The ‘Israeli’ army observation points did not see Hezbollah members approaching” the fence. Ben-David described this message as very cruel, and therefore, it is likely to be reflected “in the continued operation of the ‘Israeli’ army against Hezbollah, whether in Syria or in Lebanon.”

The political and security institutions’ characterization of the fence incident as nothing less than “very serious” is an expression of their understanding of the messages. These messages only impose more restrictions on any aggressive options being studied or being prepared for implementation.

According to “Israeli” commentators, the message from the border fence incident was resounding. The time, place, and tactics were significant. They indicate that the price the enemy entity will pay is far higher than what it anticipated in any confrontation or attempt to exploit what it imagines as a new opportunity that will allow it to impose equations by which it expands its aggression.

In simple terms, “Israel” realized that it was dealt a yellow card, which is directed specifically at the decision-makers in Tel Aviv, and it will be subject to further study and assessment.

Whatever the scenarios that follow, the fence incident has turned into a prominent junction in the context of the security war between Hezbollah and the “Israeli” entity which has multiple tracks and arenas and is most sophisticated in terms of methods and tactics. What happened in recent days was nothing but a demonstration of a small part of this. It was done in an accurate manner that will not lead to a military confrontation that the two parties do not want at the present stage, at least.

المقاومة بين رسائل الخارج وهجوم الداخل

العميد د. أمين محمد حطيط

رغم ما أحدثه كورونا من انشغال عالمي، وما فرضه من حجر على أكثر من 4 مليارات نسمة، ورغم افتضاح عجز أميركا و»إسرائيل» عن التصدّي لهذا الوباء الذي كشف حالة الوهن في بنيتهما الصحية وأظهر المخاطر التي تحيق باقتصادهما، رغم كلّ ذلك وجد الأميركي والإسرائيلي الوقت للتهديد او العدوان على محور المقاومة متوخياً تحقيق أهداف ظنّ أنه قادر على الوصول اليها أو فرضها او مفترضاً أنّ العدو أو الخصم سيخضع له ويدعه يحققها. فما هي تلك الأهداف وكيف كان ردّ محور المقاومة وما النتائج والمرتقب بعدها؟

نبدأ بالموضوع الأول الذي تمثل بالتحرّش الأميركي بالبحرية الإيرانية في الخليج، وهو تحرّش ظنّ الأميركي انّ بإمكانه عبره ان يعطل مفاعيل القصف الإيراني لقاعدة «عين الأسد» الأميركية في العراق، وأن يستغلّ انشغال إيران بمواجهة كورونا، ويظهرها عاجزة عن الردّ، وأخيراً أن يصنع عبر التحرّش والمواجهة خبراً يتداوله الإعلام في ترتيب أوّل ما يحجب إخفاقه الداخلي في مواجهة كورونا، كما يضخم الأخطار الخارجية على الأمن القومي الأميركي، ما يُسكت المناكفات والصراعات الداخلية بين ترامب وحكام الولايات، تلك الصراعات التي فضحت كورونا وجودها وفتحت المجال لتصوّر وقوع الأسوأ على صعيدها..

لكن إيران لم تسكت على التحرّش وتصرّفت بحزم وعلى وجهين، الأول عملاني في الميدان حيث وجّهت زوارقها للتحرّك في محيط قطع الأسطول الأميركي الخامس واقتربت إلى الحدّ الحرج عسكرياً من القطعة البحرية الأميركية، اقتراب له من الدلالات ما يفهمه العسكريون وهي ليست في صالح الهيبة الأميركية. أما الوجه الثاني للردّ الإيراني فقد كان في البيان التحذيري الناري الشديد اللهجة الذي وجّهه الحرس الثوري الإيراني إلى أميركا محذراً قيادتها من «الحسابات الخاطئة». وفي الوجهين دلالة واضحة انّ إيران على جهوزية عسكرية تامة للردّ على أيّ استفزاز او عدوان وأن ليس من شأن كورونا أن يؤثر على هذه الجهوزية اذا اضطرت إيران للجوء اليها ولن تكون عملية قصف «عين الأسد» إلا نموذجاً مصغراً للردّ الإيراني المقبل الذي سيأخذ بعين الاختبار متغيّرات الواقع العسكري الأميركي خلال الشهرين الأخيرين، بما في ذلك نشر الباتريوت في العراق. وبالتالي يعتبر جسّ النبض الأميركي لإيران قد فشل في تحقيق أهدافه وعزّزت إيران معادلة الردع بوجه أميركا مخدومة بقواعد اشتباك أصبحت أميركا تعرف كيف أنّ عليها احترامها.

أما الموضوع الثاني فقد تمثل بالعدوان الإسرائيلي على سورية حيث استهدف سيارة جيب للمقاومة كان على متنها مقاومون عائدون من سورية إلى لبنان، وتمّ العدوان في شكل يثير سؤال مهمّ: هل الإسرائيلي قصد النتيجة بالشكل الذي انتهى إليه الأمر أيّ عدم المسّ بالمقاومين مع تدمير السيارة أو انّ خللاً ما ضيّع على «إسرائيل» فرصة إصابة المقاومين داخل السيارة ما مكّنهم من تركها قبل أن يطلق الصاروخ الثاني؟ فإذا كان الفرض الأول هو الصحيح فانّ ذلك يعني انّ «إسرائيل» تصرّفت مع قيد رادع وخشيت من ردّ المقاومة التي أنذر قائدها «إسرائيل» بأنّ أيّ مسّ بمقاوم سيلقى الردّ المناسب من لبنان أو من سورية داخل أو خارج مزارع شبعا. أما إذا كان الفرض الثاني هو الصحيح فإنه يعني أنّ المقاومين عرفوا كيف ينتقلون وكيف يضيّعون على العدو فرصة النيل منهم.

ولكن ومهما كان من أمر قصد العدو الإسرائيلي، فإنه يستفاد من مجريات الميدان أنّ العدوان جاء ليوجه رسالة إلى المقاومة بأنّ الظروف الصحية الإسرائيلية بسبب كورونا لم تشغل «إسرائيل» عن ملاحقة المقاومة وتتبّع خطواتها في لبنان وسورية وهي رسالة يحتاجها نتنياهو اليوم من أجل القفز فوق المأزق السياسي الشخصي والحكومي الداخلي المتمثل بالعجز عن تشكيل حكومة منذ أكثر من سنة وبعد أكثر من دورة انتخابات نيابية.

بيد أنّ المقاومة لم تدع لنتنياهو فرصة تحقيق أهدافه من العدوان حيث وجّهت له صفعة سريعة أنست الجميع ما حملته المسيرة الصهيونيّة من رسائل وأنتجت إرباكاً في «إسرائيل» فاق كل ما هو متوقع. حيث إنه وفي أقلّ من 48 ساعة من اقتراف «إسرائيل» جريمتها فتحت 3 ثغرات في السياج الإسرائيلي الحدودي وتركت فيها من الآثار ما أفهم «إسرائيل» بأنّ تدمير الأنفاق التي فاخرت بالنجاح في إنجازه، لم يغيّر شيئاً في أهمية وجدية تهديد السيد حسن نصرالله من احتمال توجيه الأمر للمقاومين للعمل القتالي الهجوميّ في الجليل، وهو أمر يرعب الصهاينة على كلّ مستوياتهم.

How Did The Enemy Interpret The Lebanese-Palestinian Border Fence Incident?

كما انّ الرسالة تؤكد بأنّ المقاومة التي نجحت نجاحاً باهراً في عرضها للجيش الصحي في الداخل اللبناني والتي تنخرط بكلّ جدية وفعالية في مواجهة كورونا، انّ هذه المقاومة على جهوزية تامة للعمل العسكري المناسب في مواجهة أيّ عدوان او تهديد او خطر إسرائيلي.

وعليه نرى أنّ الرسائل العسكرية الأميركية والإسرائيلية إلى محور المقاومة استدعت من الردود ما عطل مفاعليها وما أجهض أهداف العدو الذي أرسلها، وبذلك يكون محور المقاومة أكد على ما كان صاغه من معادلات الردع وقواعد الاشتباك التي لا تمكّن الطرف الآخر من ممارسة سياسة اليد العليا ما يعني انّ المقاومة ومحورها أفشلا الاستفزاز وردّا على الرسائل بما يؤلم الطرف الآخر.

بيد أنه إلى هذا النجاح يبدو في الأفق أمر مقلق في لبنان يتمثل بما يبدو أنه يحضّر على الصعيد الداخلي فيه، اذ يبدو انّ أميركا تخطط لشيء خطر تضع هي خطوطه وتقود تنفيذه الذي يوكل إلى أطراف محليّين اشتهروا بحقدهم وبعدائهم للمقاومة وانصياعهم لقرارات أجنبية تمسّ بأمنها وأمن لبنان واستقراره وتعرّض مصالحه للخطر. وهنا نتوقف عند ما تقوم به السفيرة الأميركية في بيروت من تحشيد لهذه القوى ما يعيد إلى الأذهان الانقلاب الذي نفّذته تلك القوى في العام 2005.

وللتذكير بالدور الأميركي في لبنان في تلك الفترة نستعيد ما حصل بعد احتلال العراق ورفض سورية الانصياع للمطالب الأميركية حيث كان القرار 1559 «الناظم للشأن اللبناني أميركياً» والذي أعقبه قتل رفيق الحريري وتشكيل جماعة 14 آذار المسيّرة أميركياً والمعادية لسورية وللمقاومة. وهي الجماعات التي نفذت بتوجيه أميركي انقلاباً سياسياً على مرحلتين الأولى تمثلت بإسقاط حكومة عمر كرامي التي يملك قرارها حلفاء سورية والثاني الحصول على أغلبية نيابية وتشكيل حكومة تعادي سورية، حكومة أرست قواعد تعامل عدائية مع سورية لا زالت نافذة حتى اليوم رغم كلّ التبدّلات.

نذكّر بهذا الماضي حتى نسقطه على الحاضر، حيث إنّ وزير خارجية أميركا جورج بومبيو أطلق في آذار 2019 خطة تغيير الحكومة لإخراج المقاومة منها والتنكّر للأغلبية النيابية واستعادة قرار لبنان كلياً إلى اليد الأميركية بعيداً عن أيّ أثر لمحور المقاومة فيه، وقد حققت خطة بومبيو بعض أهدافها وفشلت في تحقيق الجزء الأهمّ منها وهو عزل المقاومة ومحاصرتها بما يعطل فعاليتها، لذلك جاءت السفيرة الأميركية شيا اليوم في خطة استلحاق لتحقيق ما فاتهم تحقيقه، من أجل ذلك تسعى شيا إلى تشكيل حلف معارض، هدفه إسقاط حكومة دياب التي يصفونها بأنها حكومة اللون الواحد المسيطر عليها من حزب الله. وهي الحكومة التي نجحت بشكل واضح حتى الآن في مقاربتها لأخطر الملفات (الدَّيْن – كورونا – المغتربين).

تقوم أميركا بـ «هجومها» من دون أن يعنيها ما سيتسبّب به إسقاط الحكومة من فراغ سياسي او إشاعة اضطراب مالي واجتماعي وحتى أمني، فالمهمّ لديها كيف تسقط حزب الله حتى ولو سقط لبنان معه. وهنا التحدي الذي يواجه الآن المقاومة وحلفاءها، الذين ينبغي ان يعلموا انّ الوقت الآن ليس للغنج والدلال او تحصيل المكاسب الشخصية، فأميركا تلعب الآن لعبتها الأخيرة التي ليس لديها الوقت الطويل لتنفيذها فهي مهلة لا تتعدّى الأشهر الستة، فإما أن تنجح ويغرق لبنان، او تفشل وينجو لبنان وهي جادّة في خطتها خاصة بعد سلسلة الإخفاقات التي حصدها ترامب في أكثر من اتجاه، وهو يؤمن انّ في نجاحه في لبنان مصلحة له ولـ «إسرائيل» على حدّ سواء. وهنا أهمية المواجهة من قبل المقاومة وحلفائها حتى لا تتكرّر استقالة عمر كرامي عام 2005، ولا محاصرة العماد لحود بعدها ولا الانقلاب السياسي مجدّداً، ولا الفتن وعمليات القتل الممنهج…

*أستاذ جامعي وخبير استراتيجي.

Al-Manar Reporter’s Border Coverage One Meter Away from Israeli Soldiers “Incredible”: Zionist Media (Video)

Mohammad Salami

The Zionist media outlets highlighted Al-Manar TV’s border coverage during the recent incidents when the enemy’s army detected three holes along the technical fence between Lebanon and the occupied Palestine.

The Israeli media described as incredible how Al-Manar reporter Ali Shoeib neared the Zionist solders and broadcast a live video from the scene, adding that Shoeib holds an anti-Israel agenda.

This video has more

How Did The Enemy Interpret The Lebanese-Palestinian Border Fence Incident?

How Did The Enemy Interpret The Lebanese-Palestinian Border Fence Incident?

Translated by Staff, Source: Hebrew Media

“The message is clear. Hezbollah demonstrated an impressive operational ability by reaching the border at points that are not being observed by our monitoring centers.”
 
This is how a military analyst for “Israeli” Channel 13 characterized two particular incidents. Alon Ben-David was talking about the targeting of a Lebanese car on the Syrian border and the opening of three holes in the fence along Lebanon’s border with occupied Palestine.
 
“The hole was not only cut. It was rather cut between two columns. And this means that their message is ‘if I could get here, I could have gotten to Jephthah settlement, Metula, and Avivim, but I chose not to be there,’” Ben-David added. “This means that you, the ‘Israeli’ army, are sending me a message. So, go ahead and receive this signal in return: every operation you carry out, you will receive a response from me.”
 
Regarding the bombing of a Lebanese car on the Syrian border, Ben-David indicated that “one missile from an “Israeli” drone was fired and hit the side of the car before it crossed the border.”
 
“As you can see, these people are serious. They understood the message and did not panic. They moved forward, took the bags from inside the car, and made sure to close the door. These are not people who panic,” he added.
 
In Ben-David’s opinion, Hezbollah members fully understood the situation. “They fully understood what was happening, but they did not panic. A minute and forty seconds after launching the first missile, a second missile was launched destroying the SUV. Hezbollah sent a message that any operation of this sort would be met with such a response.”
 
Bin-David pointed out that “the matter is worrying, and this is part of the broader complications in the north. If you look at the map, you see 1000 blind spots, and observation posts cannot see them. And on the other side there are bushes and areas that contain very dense forests.”

Hezbollah ’embarrassed’ IDF’s defense along Lebanese border: Israeli newspaper

By News Desk -2020-04-19

BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:00 P.M.) – The online publication, Walla News, reported on Sunday morning, that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were surprised last Friday night when they found the border fence with Lebanon cut in three different locations.

According to the publication, Hezbollah was behind the cutting of the border fence, which, in itself, would be a difficult thing to do, given the Israeli security in this area.

The newspaper claimed that Hezbollah fighters succeeded in ’embarrassing’ the defenses of the northern region’s command in the IDF, after they had penetrated three different points on the Lebanese-Israeli border, and had withdrawn into Lebanese territory without casualties.

The Walla report claims the operation confirms the gravity of the Israeli military security situation, especially as it is an area in which several battalions in the IDF alternate responsibility in it, and that the army’s response was so weak and too late, that it allowed the Hezbollah fighters to return safely.

The website reported that with this incident on the Lebanese-Israeli border, this matter requires a precise military stance in the northern region.

They would add that Hezbollah wanted to deliver an important military message to Israel, stating that it could easily penetrate the borders and enter the Israeli depth.

In the same context, Hezbollah’s Central War Media denied carrying out any operation on the Lebanese-Israeli border strip, stressing that everything that is circulated through some social media platforms and attributed to it in southern Lebanon is false.

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Hezbollah Rocketry Power Has imposed on ‘Israel’ Balance of Deterrence Since 1996 Aggression: Eye for Eye

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 April 17, 2020

Mohammad Salami

Lebanon marks Saturday, April 8, the 24th anniversary of the Israeli massacre against the Lebanese innocent civilians and the UNIFIL troops in the southern town of Qana as over 106 martyrs were claimed by the Zionist artillery shells.

Qana massacre was one of the atrocities committed by the Israeli enemy forces against the Lebanese civilians during the 16-day aggression it launched on April 11, 1996, in order to strike the Resistance power.

In response, Hezbollah decided to confront the Israeli war in a way that deters the enemy’s arrogance and prevent it from reaching its targets.

Hezbollah Secretary General on that day threatened to fire missiles at the Zionist settlements in northern occupied Palestine in response to any Israeli military escalation, refuting the Israeli PM Shimon Perez’s pledges to restore security and stability in the north of the occupation entity.

Hezbollah fired hundreds of Katyusha missiles at the Zionist settlements in northern occupied Palestine, inflicting considerable losses upon them and forcing hundreds of thousands of settlers to resort to the basements.

The 16-day fierce confrontation came to an end when the Zionist enemy failed to defeat the Lebanese Resistance’s rocketry power which imposed new rules of engagement on the Israelis.

The ceasefire pact recognized Hezbollah right to strike the Israeli settlements in response to any Zionist attack on the Lebanese civilians, giving the Resistance an international legitimacy.

This diplomatic achievement relied also on heavy sacrifices made by the Lebanese Resistance, Army and people, knowing that the Israeli aggression left a large number of martyrs and injuries.

Hezbollah rocketry power consecrated a new balance of deterrence, forcing the Israeli enemy to stop its aggression, granting Lebanon a major victory over the Zionist “Grapes of Wrath” despite the heavy losses it inflicted upon the Lebanese.

Since 1996, the missile power of Hezbollah has forces the Zionist enemy to subdue to new rules of engagement based on paying heavy prices for its crimes, following the principle “eye for eye”.

It was 2 p.m. on April 18, 1996, when the Israeli occupation struck a position for the UNIFIL troops (Fijian brigade), killing 106 innocent civilians and injuring dozens.

The Lebanese civilians escaped from the Israeli shells during the 1996 war and resorted to the UNIFIL position, supposing that the UN umbrella could protect them from the Zionist barbarism.

The UN Security Council held an urgent session to condemn the Israeli massacre; however, US vetoed the resolution.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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Shaikh Qaouk: Despite US Sanctions & “Israeli” Threat, the Resistance Is At Peak of Its Strength

Shaikh Qaouk: Despite US Sanctions & “Israeli” Threat, the Resistance Is At Peak of Its Strength

By Fatima Deeb Hamzeh

Lebanon – Over two decades have passed since April 1996. This the year the resistance planted the roots of one of the most important equations in its battle against the enemy. It was the formula of steadfastness – a threat for a threat. The resistance changed all of “Israel’s” military and security calculations. The Grapes of Wrath became the sour grapes of April.

It’s been 24 years, but the sounds of the Katyusha rockets still resonate in the valleys of the south. At the hill tops, spring is still green mixed with the bright pink color from the wounds and blood. The memories and the stories of those days are told by the many photographs.

Al-Ahed spoke to a member of Hezbollah’s Central Council, His Eminence Sheikh Nabil Qaouk, to look back at some of those memories.

April 1996 was the pillar of future victories

“The archive of sacrifices and heroism does not turn into memories. These are living moments,” Sheikh Nabil Qaouk said as he flipped through photographs from April 1996. He looks at them as if they just happened.

“This is an operation room for the Resistance, and this is in one of the confrontation sites. Here, I’m with the innocent people who were wounded in the areas that were targeted by Zionist fire.”

The Resistance fought its toughest battle with the “Israeli” occupier for 16 days.

“The April 1996 battle was the base of future fighting with the ‘Israelis’, especially the divine victory in July 2006,” Sheikh Qaouk added.

“The resistance succeeded in increasing its military capabilities and political presence. Despite US sanctions and ‘Israeli’ threats, today we are at the peak of our strength at various levels,” he explains. “The Zionist mind is certain that the resistance is a solid dam to its projects and is present in the fields and fronts where it moves. It is capable of changing accounts and altering the region’s realities in any confrontation.”

From the “sour grapes of April” to transforming the region, the equation of fighting with that lurking enemy changed.

“This was the product of the martyrs, the wounded, the sacrifices, the blood, and the jihad in the march of Hezbollah,” Sheikh Qaouk said. He points out that due to these sacrifices “the resistance with unmatched faith, will, and capabilities is able to achieve great victories. It is a resistance present in all arenas and accounts, and it is the aggressive Zionist project’s worst nightmare. It is a resistance that deprives its enemies from any peace of mind. It is a resistance that is as big as the equations of the region.”

We can impose new equations on the enemy

His Eminence remembers every moment of that treacherous aggression. He has memorized dates and numbers.

“The enemy’s army carried out more than 1,100 raids, fired more than 35,000 shells, and killed and wounded hundreds of innocent civilians. It committed atrocities that rocked the conscience of the world amid a clear international conspiracy. The international conference in Sharm El-Sheikh was a clear example of this, but the resistance defeated them and triumphed.”

“Despite their massacres and arrogance, they did not hear a single cry of surrender,” His Eminence adds. He recalls the distinguished presence of the martyred leaders – martyr Commander Hajj Imad Mughniyeh, “who led the battle and blinded the enemy. He also dismantled the networks of agents. There was also martyr commander Sayyid Zulfiqar who assumed the military battle firing the last missile on the settlements.”

Sheikh Qaouq noted that “we are still in the middle of the battle, the challenges have changed and expanded, the responsibilities have multiplied, but the essence is still well established. The resistance has evolved, making it an existential threat to the Zionist entity. Even the “Israelis” view it as such.”

His Eminence concludes with words that sum up April’s resilience, the July victory, and beyond. “The Resistance today is no longer seeking to adapt to the challenges of the enemy. Rather it became the one that creates the challenges for the enemy, and it forces it to submit and adapt to the resistance’s equations.”

The War Scenario Between Israel and Hezbollah

Elijah J. Magnier
Notwithstanding the increase in power of the “Axis of the Resistance”, with its precision missiles and unrivalled accumulated warfare experience, the possibility of war is still on the table. The “Axis of the Resistance” is increasing its readiness based on the possibility that Israel may not tolerate the presence of such a serious threat on its northern borders and therefore act to remove it. However, in any future war, the “Axis of the Resistance” considers the consequences would be overwhelmingly devastating for both sides and on all levels if the rules of engagement are not respected. Notwithstanding Israel’s superior air firepower, its enemy Hezbollah has established its own tremendous firepower, and its experience in recent wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen is an important asset.

Sources within the “Axis of the Resistance” believe the next battle between Hezbollah and Israel, if ever it takes place, would be “controlled and not sporadic, with a focus on specific military objectives without damaging the infrastructure, on both sides”.

The sources consider Gaza as a precedent. In Gaza Palestinians and Israelis have fought many recent battles that lasted only a few days in which the objectives bombed were purely military. This is a new rule of engagement (ROE) regulating conflict between the belligerents. When Israel hits a non-military target, the Palestinian resistance responds by hitting a similar non-military target in Israel. The lesson extracted from the new ROE between Israel and the Palestinians is that every time exchanges of bombing go out of control, both sides understand they have to bring it back to an acceptable and equitable level, to limit damage and keep such mutual attacks from targeting civilians.

The “Axis of the Resistance” therefore considers that the probability is high that the next battle would be limited to military objectives and kept under control. If one side increases the bombing, the other will follow. Otherwise, both sides have the capability to cause total destruction and go on to uncontrolled bombing. In the case of an out-of-control war, allies on both sides would become involved, which renders this scenario less likely.

Hezbollah in Lebanon is said to have over 150,000 missiles and rockets. Israel might suppose that a limited attack could destroy tens of thousands of Hezbollah’s missiles. Is it worth it? “From Israel’s view, Israel may think it is worth triggering a battle and destroying thousands of missiles, thinking that Israel has the possibility to prevent Hezbollah from re-arming itself. But even in this case, Israel doesn’t need to destroy villages or cities or the Lebanese infrastructure, instead, it will limit itself to selective targets within its bank of objectives. However, we strongly doubt Israel could succeed in limiting Hezbollah’s supply of missiles and advanced weapons. Many of these missiles no longer need to be close to the borders with Israel, but can be deployed on the Lebanese-Syrian borders in safe silos”, said the sources.

However, Israel should also expect, according to the same sources, that Hezbollah will respond by bombing significant Israeli military targets within its bank of objectives. “There is no need to bomb airports, power stations, chemical industries, harbours or any highly significant target if Israel doesn’t bomb any of these in Lebanon. But if necessary Hezbollah is prepared to imitate Israel by hitting back without hesitation indiscriminately and against high-value targets, at the cost of raising the level of confrontation to its maximum level. Hezbollah and Israel have a common language in warfare. If the bombing is limited, no side interprets the others’ actions as a sign of weakness”, said the sources.

“Hezbollah doesn’t want war and is doing everything to avoid it. This is why it responded in Moawad, in the suburb of Beirut, when Israeli armed drones failed to reach their objectives. By responding, Hezbollah actually prevented a war on a large scale because it is not possible to allow Israel to get away with any act of war in Lebanon, violating the ROE” said the sources.

Last September, Hezbollah targeted an Israeli vehicle in Avivim with a laser-guided missile in daylight after forcing the Israeli Army to hide for a week and retreat all forces behind civilians lines, imposing a new ROE. The Israeli army cleared the 120 km borders with Lebanon (5 km deep) to avoid Hezbollah’s revenge retaliation for violating the 2006 cessation of hostility’s agreement. Israel refrained from responding and swallowed the humiliation due to its awareness of Hezbollah’s readiness to start a devastating war if necessary.

Israeli officials used to threaten Hezbollah and Lebanon to take the country “back to the stone age”. This is indeed within the reach of Israel’s military capability. However, it is also within Hezbollah’s reach to bring Israel back to the stone age, if required. Hezbollah’s precision missiles can hit any bridge, airport, gasoline deposit containers, power stations, Haifa harbour, oil and gas rig platforms, any infrastructure and military and non-military objectives if Israel attempts to target similar objectives in Lebanon first. Hezbollah’s new missile capability is not new to Israel, who is observing the latest technology Iran’s allies are enjoying and “testing,” mainly in Yemen. The recent bombing of Saudi Arabia oil facilities and the downing of a Saudi Tornado in Yemen revealed that Iran’s HOT missiles are capable of downing jets at medium height and any helicopter violating Lebanese airspace.

Hezbollah’s latest version of the Fateh precision missile, the supersonic anti-ship missiles and the anti-air missiles can prevent Israel from using its navy, stopping any civilian ship from docking in Haifa, thwarting the use of Israeli Helicopters and precision bombing attacks- as in Iran’s latest confrontation with the US at Ayn al-Assad base in Iraq.

Hezbollah’s missiles are unlikely to cause simple traumatic brain injuries – as per the Iranian missile at Ayn al Assad – when hitting targets in Israel in case of war. They can avoid missile interception systems. This increase of capability is a game-changer, and Hezbollah believes it is already decreasing the chances of war. Arming itself with precision missiles and armed drones and showing these capabilities to Israel is Hezbollah’s way to avert a war and protect the equation of deterrence.

In its 2020 security assessment, the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman) unwisely evaluated the assassination of the Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani as a “restraining factor”. Aman’s report, showing astonishing ignorance, stated that Soleimani was responsible for Hezbollah’s missile projects. This lack of understanding of the Hezbollah-Iran relationship and dynamic is quite surprising. Sayyed Ali Khamenei told Hezbollah’s leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah decades ago that he knows what he needs and what to do and doesn’t need to fall back on Iran. The IRGC and Hezbollah have set up a collaboration engine that won’t stop even if half of the IRGC leadership is killed. The possession of the feared Iranian precision missiles is no longer a secret: all Iran’s allies have these deployed, in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Yesterday is unlike today: the power of destruction now belongs to all parties, no longer to Israel alone. War is no longer an option. US/Israeli aggression will be limited to an economic war, so long as the “Axis of the Resistance” continues updating its warfare capability to maintain deterrence parity.

Proofread by: Maurice Brasher and C.G.B.

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Sayyed Nasrallah: No More Red Lines in Any New Attack, War on Iran to Eliminate ’Israel’

Zeinab Essa

Sayyed Nasrallah: No More Red Lines in Any New Attack, War on Iran to Eliminate ’Israel’

Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah stressed on Tuesday the axis of Resistance’s support to its leader and its heart, His Eminence Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei – Leader of Islamic Revolution.

Addressing hundreds of thousands of mourners commemorating Ashura on the 10th of Muharram, Sayyed Nasrallah renewed his party’s eternal pledge to the top cause of our nation, the Palestinian cause.

“We renew with the Palestinian people and Resistance our pledge that there is no choice away from resisting the “Israeli” occupation,” His Eminence said, reaffirming Hezbollah’“ eternal commitment to the Palestinian cause and to confront what is being planned in the ‘deal of the century’ .”

Moreover, he stated that “this stance costs us a lot but it is our commitment.”

He further deplored “Israeli” Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu’s desecration to the Holy Ibrahimi Mosque. “The Palestinian stance is the main pillar in the confrontation against the US-‘Israeli’ scheme. These people will protect their cause and holy sites.”

“We – in Hezbollah – reaffirm our commitment to the rights of the Palestinian people in Lebanon as honorable refugees, who must return to their homeland,” The Resistance Leader added.

Moving to the Yemeni arena, Sayyed Nasrallah lamented the fact that “the people of Yemen are the title of oppression and siege as [Imam] Hussein was in Karbala.”

“The war on the Yemeni people has turned into a futile war in light of the international community’s silence and the US-British partnership,” he underscored, pointing out that “the recent developments in southern Yemen form an evidence on the Saudi-Emirati aggression’s false allegations regarding protecting Yemen’s legitimacy.”

His Eminence once again renewed the call to an immediate end to the war on Yemen.

In parallel, Sayyed Nasrallah denounced he Bahraini regime’s actions, describing it a “a traitor that went far in normalizing with the “Israeli” enemy as well as in supporting the “Israeli” aggressions against the people of Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria.”

Addressing the peaceful Bahraini revolutionary people, His Eminence said: “You, in your peaceful revolution, are waging a jihad for the sake of Allah.”

On another level, he confirmed that “the unjust sanctions on the axis of resistance forms an aggression practiced by the US administration after the failure of the Zionist wars on the resistance.”

“If our people were oppressed by the sanctions, we must act differently and the state must act as well,” Sayyed Nasrallah emphasized, urging the Lebanese sides to open the file of sanctions because it has put the Lebanese economy under attack.”

In this context, he highlighted that “the government must defend the Lebanese and state institutions must not rush to execute the American desires in terms of sanctions.”

“The Lebanese resistance has been on the sanctions lists for years and this is not new. But

when this aggression expands to target others in Lebanon – banks that have nothing to do with Hezbollah – this needs a different approach. We must reevaluate and study our choices well,” His Eminence went on to say.

Regarding the recent “Israeli” attacks on Lebanon, Hezbollah Secretary General viewed that “the recent aggression against Dahyia [the southern suburbs of Beirut] through the bombed drones was a great one.

In addition, Sayyed Nasrallah hailed the united Lebanese official and popular stances in face of the dangerous “Israeli” aggression. “Today we are setting the equations and strengthening the deterrence that protects our country.”

According to His Eminence, “The invincible “Israeli” army turned to act in Hollywood movies. For the first time, the “Israeli” enemy is building a security zone inside occupied Palestine with a depth of 5 km.”

To the apartheid “Israeli” entity, Sayyed Nasrallah sent a sounding message: “If Lebanon is attacked, Hezbollah will respond to the aggression appropriately to defend Lebanon. Lebanon respects 1701 and Hezbollah is part of the government that respects this resolution but if “Israel” attacks, there will be no red lines at all.”

“Lebanon has imposed itself on world powers and everyone contacted it after the latest “Israeli” attack, prior to the resistance’s response and during the Hezbollah response,” Sayyed Nasrallah added, noting that “Lebanon must know that it is strong through the army-people-resistance equation and all countries in the world contacted our government to thwart us from retaliating to the “Israeli” aggression.”

On the Lebanese economic situation, he assured that “the situation is not hopeless and there is a possibility to address it if there is the necessary seriousness. The same as we discussed the previous state budget we will discuss the 2020 budget.”

“The principles that govern our stance will be the same. We refuse any new taxes on low-income citizens in any economic solutions in Lebanon. Instead of going to the pockets of the poor, let us search for the looted funds, and this should be the leading choice to address the economic situation,” His Eminence said.

On the regional scene, Sayyed Nasrallah rejected any war scheme against the Islamic Republic of Iran because it will ignite the region.

“We will not be neutral in the battle between the truth and falsehood and who thinks that the supposed war will be the end of the axis of resistance I tell them that it will result in the end of both “Israel” and the US domination in our region,” he clarified.

According to His Eminence, “Today, our Hussein is Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Republic of Iran is the heart of the resistance’s axis.”

To Imam Khamenei, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “ We tell you as the companions of Imam Hussein said on the 10th night of Muharram, ‘We won’t leave you, O son of Hussein’.”

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المسيّرات الإسرائيلية one way ticket

المسيّرات الإسرائيلية one way ticket

سبتمبر 9, 2019

روزانا رمّال

مرتكزات عدة في نقاش مبدأ إسقاط المسيَّرات الإسرائيلية في لبنان تأخذ مكانها بعيداً عن كلام الأمين العام لحزب الله ووعوده بالبدء بمرحلة جديدة والشروع بإسقاط كل ما هو مسيَّر كلما كانت الفرصة سانحة لحزب الله. فالإسرائيليون لم يكن لديهم أدنى شك من منطلق التجربة مع «عدو» كحزب الله بأن كلام نصرالله شكلي او مجرد تهديد أو رفع لمعنويات شعبه، بل على العكس منذ اللحظة الاولى ادركت القيادات العسكرية الإسرائيلية أن الأمر آيل للتنفيذ. ولهذا السبب شهدت الأجواء اللبنانية تكثيفاً لطلعات مسيّرات في الـ 48 ساعة التي أعقبت تهديد نصرالله كنوع من التحدي اضطر نصرالله أن يوضح بعدها ان حزب الله لم يعد بمهاجمة كل المسيّرات إنما هذا مقرون بظروف المهمة فبقي الأكيد أن القرار «بالملاحقة» اتخذ.

لكن الأهم بالنسبة للقيادات الأمنية الإسرائيلية هو نقل المعركة نحو الأجواء وهو نقطة التفوق «الوحيدة» التي تزخّم الحضور الإسرائيلي وترفع من مهابة آلته العسكرية. فـ»إسرائيل» وبكل وضوح هي «سيدة الأجواء» في المنطقة. فلا سلاح يضاهيها ولا مهمات توازي طلعاتها الجوية. واذا كان الاشتباك قد انتقل الى الجو فإن المأزق الإسرائيلي صار «كارثياً» كمن يتجرّد من نقطة قوته تدريجياً. فالمنطق العسكري يفرض على الخبراء في تل أبيب عدم التوقف عند فكرة إسقاط طائرة مسيّرة من هنا او هناك، بل يفرض البحث في ما يملكه حزب الله لمواجهة قطع الجو الإسرائيلية الحربية. فمن يمتلك القدرة على إسقاط طائرات استطلاع هو بدون شك متجه نحو إسقاط طائرات مقاتلة في المرحلة المقبلة. كما أن حزب الله وعملاً بتحالفاته الإقليمية والدولية وبمنطق الأمور الذي اخذت نحو تشارك في الميدان السوري والعراقي واليمني فإن مسألة امتلاكه سلاحاً كاسراً لطائرات الجو هو بديهي اليوم. لكن المعادلة السابقة لم تكن فيها اولوية حزب الله الكشف عن قدراته الجوية، ولهذا السبب لطالما أرادت «إسرائيل» إيقاع الحزب بفِخاخ للكشف عما يملك لتبني على الشيء مقتضاه، لكنه لم يقع فيها ولم يكن أيضاً أمين عام حزب الله في أي وقت من الاوقات مفرطاً بمعلومات مجانية لـ»إسرائيل»، خصوصاً من هذا النوع في معرض حديثه.

وبطبيعة الحال لا بد من النظر الى حليف حزب الله الأساسي اي إيران وقدراتها الدفاعية الجوية وقدراتها العسكرية التي استطاع الحرس الثوري عبرها إسقاط واحدة من أقوى الطائرات المسيرة في العالم منذ أشهر قليلة في محافظة هرمزكان في جنوب إيران. والطائرة من طراز غلوبال هوك تصنعها الشركة الأميركية نورثروب غرونمان وقد أُسقطت في منطقة «كوه مبارك» بعد أن اخترقت أجواء الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية وقد أعلنت القيادة المركزية للقوات الأميركية حينها أن طائرة استطلاع تابعة للبحرية الأميركية أُسقطت بصاروخ إيراني أرض – جو فوق مضيق هرمز. هذه الطائرة التي تبلغ قيمتها أكثر من مئتي مليون دولار وعددها المحدود جداً لدى الأميركيين قلبت الموازين في مسألة شن حرب أميركية على إيران لأن الكشف عن هذه المقدرات الإيرانية «المتطورة» جعل من واشنطن تتريث في اتخاذ أي قرار من هذا النوع.

بالعودة للتفوّق الجوي فإن الأمر نفسه والقلق نفسه سيراود «إسرائيل» في الأيام المقبلة، لأنه لا يوجد أي ضمانة بان إيران لم تسلم حزب الله صواريخ قادرة على إسقاط طائرات إسرائيلية مقاتلة في اي حرب مقبلة. فكيف بالحال وأن «إسرائيل» تعرف ان للحزب مقدرات استطلاعية متطوّرة وهو الذي أرسل طائرة استطلاع فوق الأراضي المحتلة منذ ثلاث سنوات تقريباً عُرفت باسم «أيوب» وقد دخلت الأراضي المحتلة وعادت إلى الأجواء اللبنانية سالمة بدون أن تلحظها المضادات الإسرائيلية حتى وعليه فإن حرب الأجواء انتقلت للمرة الأولى لتصبح هي العنصر المريب بالنسبة لـ»إسرائيل»، وكيفية التعاطي معها يجعلها مكبلة أكثر من أي وقت مضى.

إسقاط مسيّرة فوق منطقة رامية الجنوبية اللبنانية هو رسالة مباشرة بأن على الإسرائيليين توقع من اليوم أن حزب الله باشر بأعماله بمراقبة ما يتحرّك بالأجواء اللبنانية، وإذا كان على «إسرائيل» تدارك الأمر، فإنها ستضع أمامها سلفاً فكرة الخسائر المحققة من أي طائرة مسيّرة أو طائرة استطلاع متطوّرة تحلّق فوق لبنان، لأن نسبة عودتها آمنة ستكون خمسين بالمئة بعد اليوم، لهذا فإن تل أبيب ستضع بحسبانها حكماً وبشكل منطقي الخيار «الأسوأ»، وهو إن اي دخول لمسيرات إسرائيلية للأجواء اللبنانية قد قطع لها حزب الله ما يشبه one way ticket فهي لن تعود الى مراكزها سالمة. وبالتالي الخسائر الإسرائيلية «المحققة» صارت بحكم المتوقعة بالنسبة للأجهزة الأمنية الإسرائيلية ليبقى «المربك جداً بالنسبة لتل ابيب» هو العمل الاستخباري الذي صار مقيّداً بشكل كبير من الجو فوق لبنان، لا بل ربما يعرض «إسرائيل» للانكشاف، لان احتمال أن يسقط حزب الله مسيرات بدون ان تتمكن «إسرائيل» من تفجيرها هو أيضاً احد الاحتمالات الورادة وبحال وصلت الى ايدي الحزب حيث سيتمّ تحليلها وكشف مواطن اهتمام الإسرائيليين بالعموم.

إقدام حزب الله على اسقاط مسيرة هو بداية اعلان أكيدة عن مرحلة جديدة من التوازن الذي كان يحكم عدوين يعرفان بعضهما جيداً، ولعل الرسائل بينهما اليوم التي تبدأ عند الحدود اللبنانية ولا تنتهي عند الحدود السورية فالعراقية وربما اليمنية، خصوصاً ضمن تبادل السلاح والأهداف بين المحور الواحد أكبر من أن يحللها مراقبون عن بُعد، لكن وبالمحصلة أدخل حزب الله الأجواء اللبنانية ضمن معادلته الجديدة وأدخل معها جرعة جديدة من الردع لحماية البلاد.

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قوانين الحرب الجديدة تترسّخ

 

سبتمبر 9, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– ما بين أول أيلول والعاشر منه، وعشية أول أيام عاشوراء وآخر أيامها، وما يعنيه الاهتمام بأمن مجالسها بالنسبة لحزب الله، فرض الحزب معادلات قوة جديدة في توازن الردع وقوانين الحرب بينه وبين كيان الاحتلال. والتاريخان 1 و9 ايلول سيصيران جزءاً من ذاكرة جديدة، تحتلّ مكانة موازية لذاكرة تموز 2006، فالقضية ببعدها الأخلاقي والقيمي إثبات الفرق بين الوعد الصادق والتهديد الكاذب، وتوصيف دقيق لمكانة كل من قادة محور الشر الذي يقوده كيان الاحتلال ومحور المقاومة الذي ينطق بلسانه السيد حسن نصرالله.

– الهدف الذي تمّت إصابته ليس مهماً ، و لا خسائر بشرية تستحق الرد ، و الاحتفاظ بحق الرد ومكانه وزمانه ، و لن ينجح أحد باستدراجنا للحرب ، جمل ومفردات ومصطلحات كانت تلازم الخطاب العربي الرسمي لعقود، تهرباً من المواجهة مع كيان الاحتلال، وصارت في مرحلة انتقالية جزءاً من خطاب محور المقاومة في طور الانتقال من الردع السلبي إلى الردع الإيجابي، وتفادي التورط بمواجهة لم تكتمل شروط خوضها وضمان الفوز بها. وها هي اليوم تصير مفردات ومصطلحات وجمل يتكون منها الخطاب الأميركي، من التعامل الأميركي مع إسقاط إيران لأهم طائرات الحرب الإلكترونية الأميركية في العالم، إلى تعامل كيان وجيش الإحتلال مع عملية أفيفيم التي خرقت خطاً أحمر عمره من عمر الكيان بحرمة الاقتراب من حدود فلسطين المحتلة عام 48. وها هي تتكرّر مع أول إسقاط المقاومة لطائرة مسيّرة للعدو تنتهك الأجواء اللبنانية.

– الفارق بين قواعد الاشتباك وقوانين الحرب ومعادلات الردع كبير، فقوانين الحرب تضع بيد فريق قدرة شنّ حرب، وبيد الآخر القدرة على رسم نتائج التورط فيها بقدرة الدرع. وتأتي قواعد الاشتباك لترسم حدود الفعل العسكري ورد الفعل عليه تحت سقف قوانين الحرب ومعادلات الردع، فتبقى المبادرة بيد القادر على شنّ الحرب ويبقى الردّ بيد القادر على رسم حدود الحرب بقدرة الردع. وهكذا كان الحال قبل أول أيلول، كيان الاحتلال بيده قدرة شنّ الحرب، والمقاومة تملك قدرة ردع تجعله يقيم حساباته قبل التورط فيها، وما بينهما، جيش الاحتلال يشنّ هجماته بما لا يستفز قدرة الردع، والمقاومة تردّ بما لا يستفز الكيان للذهاب إلى حرب.

– منذ أول أيلول تخطّت المقاومة حدود المعادلات السابقة وضربت حيث يستفز العدو ليشن حرباً، ولم يفعل، واعادت الكرة ولم يفعل، فحدود فلسطين الـ 48 وسلاح الجو بالنسبة لكيان الاحتلال أهم الخطوط الحمراء، والتهوين من حجم فعل المقاومة هو إعلان ارتضاء ومساكنة مع سقوط خطوطه الحمراء. ومنذ اليوم لم تعد بيد كيان الاحتلال قدرة شن حرب وتغيرت قوانين المعادلة، وقواعد الاشتباك صارت متحركة بيد المقاومة ترسمها في تثبيت خطوطها الحمراء التراكمية، بدءاً من اعتبار تمركز قوتها في سورية خطاً أحمر، إلى اعتبار الأجواء اللبنانية خطاً أحمر، والتتمة تأتي تباعاً. وكيان الإحتلال سيمتنع تباعاً عن كل ما يستفز ما هو أبعد اليوم من قدرة الردع، وهو قدرة المبادرة لرسم خطوط حمراء، وبالتالي نحن أمام توازن استراتيجي جديد متحرك بسرعة ليرسو على معادلة الردع الإيجابي، وإعلان نهاية مرحلة الدرع السلبية المتحركة سقوفها ما بين 1996 وتفاهم نيسان وحرب تموز 2006.

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Nasrallah: Hezbollah has no more ‘Red Lines’ Against Israel, all Occupied Palestine can be Targeted

Via The Saker

September 08, 2019

Hezbollah footage of the strike (English subtitles):

Report about Israeli dummy soldiers:

Nasrallah: Hezbollah has no more ‘Red Lines’ Against Israel, all Occupied Palestine can be Targeted

Political section of the speech of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayed Hassan Nasrallah on September 2nd, 2019, on the occasion of the commemoration of the martyrdom of Imam Hussein (‘Ashura), and the day after Hezbollah’s retaliation against an Israeli armored vehicle.

According to Israel’s military censor, there were no Israelis so much as scracthed by Hezbollah’s Kornet missiles, but only 2 days later, an Israeli soldier was severely injured and almost died because of an alledged ‘rock-throwing game’. Sounds like the lousiest cover-up ever…

Transcript: 

The (political) part of my speech will be devoted to the latest developments, that is Hezbollah’s retaliation, the different reactions to it and (everything that happened yesterday and today).

First, we express our thanks to God Most High and Exalted for the success, the victory, and the accomplishments He has bestowed upon us, because all the benefits we enjoy come from His beneficence, His goodness, and His mercy. We praise Him and implore His forgiveness.

I must then address, at the beginning of my speech, the Resistance, the Mujahideen (fighters in the way of God), be them leaders, soldiers or persons in charge, who since 8 days, since Sunday (August 25) to this day, until last night or until this morning at least, were on the battlefield, at every time, along the Lebanese border with occupied Palestine, and ready (to hit the first valuable target). It is by their presence, their state of alert, their courage, their efficiency and their sacrifices that we realized and confirmed all the equations that dissuade the enemy and protect our country.

These brothers, since the first hours after my Sunday (August 25) speech, whether under the sun or under the stars, in the heat of daylight or the freshness of the night, and in spite of the maximum alert of the Israeli enemy, of his radars and (surveillance) drones, as well as all his (ultra-sophisticated) technical means, remained in front of the enemy, exposed (to strikes), present on the ground (and  not hidden in bunkers), ready to give their blood. After God the Most High and the Exalted, it is they whom we must thank, these noble and very dear brothers.

In the same way, I must thank the Lebanese army, which remained vigilant on the whole length of the border, ready to face any aggression. I also express our thanks to our beloved people, our kith and kin, and our beloved families, especially those who are in the villages and regions closest to the border, who have spent all these days living their daily & normal lives, and who have followed, supported and congratulated our retaliation, and expressed their joy and pride in the success of the Resistance.

Likewise, we naturally thank anew the (Lebanese) Presidents (of the Republic, of the Council of Ministers and of the Parliament) and government officials, and all those who have clearly and firmly taken a stance (alongside the Resistance). I declare in truth that they have followed the events until the last moments, and have assumed their national responsibility.

I particularly thank the media, who have made great efforts to follow the evolution of the situation, supporting the actions of the Resistance and showing the situation as it really was, thwarting the enemy’s attempts to hide the facts (claiming that Hezbollah didn’t cause any casualties). As I will explain, our operation did not take place only yesterday in the afternoon, but extended from my speech (on August 25) to the military operation itself. All of this has been closely monitored by the media, and I thank them all, especially the reporters on the ground, who sometimes put themselves in danger in order to show the situation in a strong and eloquent way [the Israeli Army had completely deserted the area, allowing some Al-ManarAl-Mayadeen and Russia Today Arabic journalists to infiltrate Israeli territory and even enter abandoned military bases]. We also thank all the analysts and commentators who provided the public with truthful, relevant and eloquent explanations.

I did not prepare a list of all those I had to thank, so in advance, I apologize to all those I may have forgotten, which will dispense me from mentioning them later [Laughter]. We thank everyone.

Secondly, I will quickly assess what has happened so that I can draw clear conclusions. What happened started during the night from Saturday to Sunday (August 25), and consisted of two events. The first event was the Israeli airstrike against the city of ‘Aqraba in the suburbs of Damascus, which led to the martyrdom of our dear brothers Yasser Dhaher and Hassan Zbib. And a few hours later, the second event was the operation of the two suicide drones in the southern suburbs of Beirut. I want to clarify something in this regard: it is common knowledge that the first suicide drone was neutralized (pelted with stones) and fell to the ground, and therefore failed to achieve what it was sent for. I add today that the second suicide drone, which was also sent to destroy a target, also failed in its mission: the target that this drone tried to destroy was not hit. The Israelis know well what they have come to strike, and I have no reason to reveal it, but I announce to the enemy that this operation failed. And it is also a blessing of God the Most High and Exalted.

Since the first moments, we have announced, especially in my Sunday speech, that we would not remain silent about these two aggressions, that we would not accept that new equations are imposed (to our disadvantage), and that we wouldn’t let the achievements of our July 2006 victory be squandered. And that’s why we said we would retaliate with certainty to these two attacks.

Our response has taken two aspects. The first aspect of our response took place on the ground, and across the international border with occupied Palestine, with the territory of Palestine occupied in 1948. And the second aspect of our response concerns Israeli drones in the skies of Lebanon.

Regarding the first aspect, the direct operation on the ground, we have stated publicly and clearly… I will present the overall situation to highlight our strengths, the strengths of Lebanon, and the points of weakness, humiliation, fear and failure of the enemy. We announced publicly that we would retaliate from Lebanon, from anywhere on the Lebanese border (with occupied Palestine), and perhaps even in the depths (of Israel). We warned the enemy that he had to expect us (any time) from now on. This is a strength point of the Resistance. We could have remained silent, refrained from threatening (Israel of an imminent retaliation), not revealing our intentions, keeping quiet as we say, for 1, 2 or 3 days, then hit them by surprise. The military know that one of the most important aspects of a military operation is the element of surprise. But we have not done so, because our fight against the Zionist entity has a major psychological component, affecting the morale and soul of the enemy (which we strive to undermine). So we told them from the beginning to wait for us, because we were coming. In itself, it is an enormous challenge issued by the Resistance, (but the enemy did not dare to take up the gauntlet).

If we consider the overall situation, in our eyes, everything that has happened since my (August 25) speech until yesterday, and which I will detail, is a (humiliating) punishment inflicted on the enemy, a deterrence of the enemy, a (successful) confrontation with the enemy. It is an operation composed of several layers that add up. Part of it is psychological, part of it touches the morale, part of it takes place on the battlefield, a part consists of an (anti-tank) missile launch, but all this is part of the same operation of a multiple punishment of the enemy, consisting of different layers.

If we consider the situation since last Sunday, since my August 25 speech, and briefly summarize the facts, what happened?

1 – The border has been deserted throughout its length. For Israel, there was no longer any distinction between the blue line, the international border, and this or that disputed piece of land in one direction or the other: the entire border, whether it is indicated by a wall or barbed wire, was completely abandoned by Israel, and it was impossible to find any soldier on the whole length of the border. Neither soldiers, nor these vehicles that regularly move on the dirt tracks or asphalt could be seen along the border. We did not see anyone nor anything. It is only today that they began to reappear, our operation having ended yesterday.

2 – All positions close to the borders have been completely abandoned. They did not even hole up in their bases, no, they completely abandoned them. They escaped. By God, it’s more than we expected. I told them to hole up, but they literally fled.

[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]

Entire barracks were abandoned, like the one whose name has now become famous, the barracks of Avivim. A large military base, including a command center occupied by a large number of officers and soldiers, etc., etc., etc., was completely deserted, as a journalist (from Russia Today) showed: she went in and walked the premises, finding them completely empty. There was absolutely no one! Several barracks and military positions have been abandoned at the border, and sometimes even in the depths (of Israel).

3 – At a depth of 5 kilometers in some areas, and 7 kilometers in others, special measures, severe restrictions, evacuations and travel bans have been put in place. Even in the settlements, as we saw on television, cameras roamed the settlements from morning till night and did not meet a soul: no pedestrians, no motorists, no motorcyclists, no bicycles, no open shops, nothing. Everyone stood still. They were all holed up in their houses, and the doors of the shelters were open.

4 – Very severe (security) measures were taken everywhere in Israel, with an unprecedented state of alert. All the Iron Dome units that they could find and bring to the North, they brought and deployed them to face (possible) missile fire. All their anti-aircraft defense capabilities were activated, as well as all their means of dealing with the missiles or drones that Hezbollah could have launched towards occupied Palestine. Of course, we have drones (in quality and quantity), it’s not a secret and they know it well.

5 – During these 8 days, their combat units were on alert, on a war footing and deployed: I speak of several divisions, several air bases, several naval bases, etc.

If we consider the general situation that prevailed on the Israeli side during these last days, it was clear that this Israel, which to this day presents itself as endowed with the most powerful army of the region, the first army of the region, this arrogant, despotic, infatuated and tyrannical state, which once terrorized millions and hundreds of millions of people (through its wars and threats of aggression), for eight days, the whole world saw it frightened, fearful, hidden, holed up, and having completely deserted the Lebanese border on a width of at least 5 kilometers. It’s an absolute shame and humiliation. It is a demonstration of weakness. This is one manifestation of the fact that Israel is weaker than a spider’s web. And that’s part of the punishment (we inflicted on Israel). Before we retaliated with our military operation, some people were (ironically) asking: where is your response? But (this terror situation on the Israeli side) was already a punishment and a retaliation.

On the other hand, on our side, the Lebanese army has not left the border anywhere, remaining in all its positions. Likewise, the Resistance was present everywhere it was supposed to be. Our good Lebanese people was normally moving in border areas, whether in villages or fields [Israeli settlers were forbidden to approach “their” fields in occupied Palestine], and led a completely normal life.

So we have a scene (of normal life) on our side, on our territory and in our villages, a scene of endurance, strength, assurance, confidence, certainty, dignity and nobility, be it Lebanon, its people, its army, its State or its Resistance. Such was the scene on our side, (compare it with the spectacle of terror and desolation on the other side).

Similarly, to properly assess the situation, it should be noted that yesterday, the Resistance conducted its operation in broad daylight. The military is well aware of what it means to conduct an operation in broad daylight (risk of detection, of elimination, etc.), so close to the border, while the (Israeli surveillance) drones were flying in the sky, and while their combat helicopters were ready to come and hit us. Our fighters were exposed to danger in broad daylight because we did not act at night. It is a deliberate choice we made not to act at night, for reasons that I will not bother to mention (show of force, etc.). We made the decision to act imperatively by day, and we communicated it to the brothers in charge of the operation on the ground, and it is also one of the reasons for the delay of the operation, because if we had acted at night, we would have had more targets and opportunities.

This Resistance did not hit directly at the border – anyway, there were no targets at the border – but at some depth (2 kilometers). And despite all the Israeli measures, despite all their precautions and despite all the dummy targets they have scattered everywhere (empty vehicles or occupied by dummies dressed as soldiers), a considerable amount of military vehicles and tanks placed here and there, which were all calling for our strikes to put an end to this unbearable wait for the enemy, despite all this, the Resistance has patiently waited, watched and monitored, ensuring the validity of information and checking all the data, and when a valuable target finally showed up, we hit it and touched it with certainty. Today, the whole world was able to see the video of the operation broadcast in the media. What happened clearly demonstrates our boldness, our courage, our precision and our sense of responsibility.

O my brothers and sisters, one of the most important points about what happened yesterday, and whatever the Israeli attempts to minimize its losses, is the very fact that the operation was conducted. The most important aspect of the operation, even before its success and its results, is to have been accomplished! We had the courage to do it! For the past 7 days, in the media, there is not a single Israeli official who has not said that if we opened fire, shot a missile, killed, wounded or attacked, the reaction would be devastating and could lead to war, etc. We have heard all conceivable threats. And the most severe are those that were expressed through the diplomatic channels: if one was to believe them, Israel would not tolerate the slightest shot in its direction, would respond disproportionately and destroy the country, returning it to the Stone Age. A considerable operation to terrorize us was conducted by the media and diplomatic channels (United States, Great Britain, France, etc.). But I assure you, O my brothers and sisters, and in all sincerity: not only Hezbollah hasn’t flinched, but none of the Lebanese officials with whom we spoke trembled! Nobody flinched! And Lebanon remained strong in its attachment (to its right to defend itself), and its faith in our retaliation response and the legitimacy of our retaliation. The very fact that we made this operation is a success in itself!

I come to the most important point to which all should pay attention, because it is on it that I will base the conclusion of this whole episode of confrontation, and the new equation in force. In the past, when we were attacked, where did we respond? In the Shebaa Farms, inside the Shebaa Farms. Because there are Israeli military positions inside the Shebaa farms. The traps we laid for Israeli tanks and vehicles were placed on occupied Lebanese territory. The rest of the border, that is to say the border of Lebanon with the territory of Palestine occupied in 1948, and which the enemy considers as its official and indisputable border, its usurping State and its entity, the very fact of touching this border was considered by the enemy for decades as one of the largest red lines. Israel could not tolerate anyone allowing himself to touch the barbed wire delimiting the border, sending any drone flying over its territory, firing in the air, or throwing a grenade at it. No way! Israel responded violently to any such violation, for it was a red line in their eyes! What happened yesterday is that the main red line of Israel for decades has been shattered by the Islamic Resistance! That’s what happened yesterday.

[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]

It’s not a red line anymore. It’s over. This period is well and truly over, regardless of what the Israelis can say and claim.

And even tastier, this Israel, which normally [Laughter] responds to any shot, any projectile and any grenade by air strikes, assassinations and massive destruction, yesterday, Israel has made considerable efforts to absorb the blow at all costs. And even their incendiary and phosphorous strikes (against empty lands and forests) were mostly defensive, and aimed at building a smokescreen to protect themselves from further strikes, as they imagined that the Resistance was going to strike again the barracks of Avivim and other positions. But they wanted to get over with it and especially not escalate, being ready to conclude a truce at any price.

What is the result of all this? First, we confirmed and even reinforced the deterrence equation. If Netanyahu wanted to change the equation in his favor, we confirmed it and even reinforced it in our favor. Our deterrent force is now greater. We have increased it by one step. He feared a retaliation from us, but thought we would respect some red lines. But we said and demonstrated that we no longer have any red line. Since Netanyahu tried to change the rules of engagement, our response was to break absolutely all the red lines (of Israel). We have passed from a stage where our responses were launched exclusively against (a thin band of) occupied Lebanese territory, namely the Shebaa Farms and the Kfar Chouba Hills, to a stage where our response directly strikes the territory of occupied Palestine! It’s something new. It’s completely new. And we do not have to hit the border area. We can strike at 1, 2 or 5 kilometers, or, if need be, far more distant points, in the full depth of occupied Palestine.

What is the message we sent? This is where our accomplishment and success lie. The message is clear: if you attack us, all your borders, all your soldiers and all your settlements, whether at the border, deep or at the very extremity of your entity, will be threatened and may be targeted by our response, absolutely and categorically. This does not pose us any problem. And the courage and boldness demonstrated by the Resistance yesterday will be found in the future by actions much more courageous, bolder, stronger and more important. Such is the new equation.

Today, I want to say this to the Israelis: Listen carefully to what Netanyahu did by his imbecility and pettiness, and remember this date, September 1, 2019. Sunday, September 1, 2019 is the beginning of a new stage of the situation on the Lebanese border with occupied Palestine: as regards the defense of Lebanon, its sovereignty, its dignity, its security and its people, there is no longer any red line!

[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]

I now come to the second point. I already started to mention it on Sunday (August 25) when I declared that from now on, we would work on a new file on which we had avoided to intervene during all the past years, namely the Lebanese skies and its permanent violation by Israeli drones. I explained that it was only internal Lebanese considerations that led us to leave this issue aside, and that we constantly called upon the Lebanese State to solve this problem. But it has not been resolved. We have therefore established, and it is now irrevocable in the deterrence equation, that the Lebanese have the right to defend their territory, their skies, their waters, their people, their security and their sovereignty, and that we would take care of defending them. And so we opened a new field of action, namely to confront the Israeli drones in our skies. I say nothing more than that. I speak of the Lebanese skies. We have established and announced it clearly. The decision is made, and implementing this choice is now in the hands of our fighters on the ground, as for the first point. Since August 25, the decision to retaliate against Israel was taken and was in the hands of the fighters on the ground, to whom we announced that we were in no hurry: we wanted a clean operation, without any loss on our side, and that would restore the deterrence equation in our favor. The opportunity arose, they seized it and we re-established and strengthened the deterrence equation.

Today, with regard to the fight against Israeli drones, the same is true: the decision is made, and everything is now in the hands of our combatants on the ground. And I already explained how we would behave, what was our vision, etc., so I do not need to repeat myself [Hezbollah does not commit to shooting down all the drones, because that may disclose and / or exhaust all of its anti-aircraft defenses, but will act wisely and judiciously depending on the circumstances]. Tomorrow, someone will tell us, when the first drone is shot down – and this can happen at any time –, that we are putting the stability of the country in danger, pushing the situation towards a military escalation, etc. But it will be useless. Whoever wants, within the international community, especially the countries that contacted us before Sunday, Sunday and during the Sunday operation, I say to them now: whoever cares about the stability of Lebanon and the region must speak with the Israelis and tell them that the time of the violation of Lebanon’s skies with impunity is over. This time is over. There will be no more tolerance and we will no longer look the other way. Hezbollah will no longer allow the sovereignty and the skies of Lebanon to be violated. As for how we deal with it, it’s a decision that’s in our hands. But it’s our right. No matter how long it takes, it’s our right, and the way we act is just a detail. Of course, that’s part of our response.

Today, I declare that because of the death of our two brothers killed in Syria, and the two suicide drones in Beirut, our response began on Sunday, continued yesterday and will continue via the fight against drones. That’s what we decided. Naturally, we come out stronger from this episode of confrontation, with a stronger position. Netanyahu wanted to overturn the rules of engagement in Israel’s favor, and we stopped him. He wanted to break the balance of deterrence, and we strengthened it in our favor. This is the result, and that is the conclusion.

Anyway, the Israelis must know that all this was caused by the stupidity of this man, who has only one idea in mind, to win the elections at all costs in order to escape justice for the many corruption cases in which he is involved.

So we can say that this new stage of confrontation is over from the point of view of the new equation that it has founded. And in the future, the fight against drones will continue. And in case of aggression against Lebanon, there will no longer be any red line at the international borders and in the Palestinian territories occupied in 1948, to which will henceforth extend all our retaliations, which will no longer be confined to the Shebaa farms. All the limits have been removed, and everything is now clear.

I renew my thanks to God and to our fighters, whose response has confirmed and strengthened the equations, prevented the rules of engagement from being violated in favor of the enemy, preserved the achievements of the July 2006 war, as well as the dignity, the honor and the pre-eminence of Lebanon vis-a-vis Israel.

So much for this topic. I’m done with the political section of my speech. Pray upon the Prophet and his family.

[Audience: O my God, pray upon Muhammad and his family!]

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Any amount counts, because a little money here and there, it’s like drops of water that can become rivers, seas or oceans…” Hassan Nasrallah

صفر أهداف = صفر حياة

 

ابراهيم الأمين

الثلاثاء 3 أيلول 2019

Image result for ‫ابراهيم الأمين‬‎

خلال ساعات قليلة، شرع العدو في تنفيذ خطة تدرّب عليها سابقاً، لإخلاء كل مواقعه ومراكزه على طول المساحة التي يعتقد أنها هدف مفترض لعمل المقاومين. وعندما أصدر الأمر بذلك، لم يكن متساهلاً في تنفيذ دقيق. لكنّ قيادة جيش الاحتلال لم تكن معنية بتكثيف الضغط على الجنود والمستوطنين لالتزام الأوامر، كان يكفي سماع هؤلاء كلام السيد حسن نصر الله، حتى يتصرفوا من تلقاء أنفسهم، بما يتناسب عملياً مع قرار قيادتهم بالاختفاء عن الشاشة.

خلال وقت قياسي، عمد العدو الى إخلاء مساحات طويلة مقابل لبنان من كل المظاهر العسكرية. بدا لوهلة أنه يقوم بتجربة على تنفيذ قرار كالذي يصدر عادة من مجلس الامن، ولكنه يخص أعداء إسرائيل. مثل حالة لبنان، حيث يفترض القرار 1701 أن لا يكون المقاومون موجودين على طول الحدود مع فلسطين وبعمق كبير. لكنّ واقع الحال خلال أسبوع، أن العدو هو من قام بعملية الإخلاء، والاختباء خلف المدنيين، واتخاذ سياراتهم ومزارعهم وبيوتهم ومتاجرهم دروعاً لقوات الجيش التي باتت حصانتهم تفرض عليهم خلع البزة العسكرية، تماماً كعناصر ميليشيا ألزمهم القرار الرسمي بإخلاء مواقعهم لمصلحة الدولة، حتى إن العدو تمنى خلال هذا الاسبوع لو أن القوات الدولية كانت موجودة عنده، لكان احتمى بجنودها وسياراتها ودورياتها.

القرار الميداني من قبل قيادة العدو بتصفير الاهداف العسكرية على طول الحدود، وبعمق يتفاوت بين خمسة وسبعة كيلومترات، تحول عملياً الى تصفير لكل أشكال الحياة هناك. المستوطنون الذين تراجع حضورهم بقوة خلال العقد الأخير في تلك المناطق الحدودية، كان ينقصهم أن يهرب الجنود من مواقعهم، حتى شعروا بأنهم متروكون لمصيرهم. ولو أنهم كانوا أكثر اطمئناناً لأن المقاومة في لبنان لا تتجاسر على مدنيين. لكن برنامج الحظر الذي شمل اتصالاتهم ولقاءاتهم وأنشطتهم، حتى لا يثيروا انتباه العدو، جعلهم يفضّلون الابتعاد أصلاً عن تلك المنطقة. وإذا كان في لبنان من يثق، بأن العدو لن يقدم على تفجير كبير رداً على أي عملية عسكرية، فإن تهديدات قادة العدو بالويل والثبور، إنما أصابت هؤلاء المستوطنين، الذين يعرفون أن جيشهم قوي على المدنيين فقط، وأنهم سيدفعون ثمن فعلة الجنود. ولذلك، بادروا الى التماهي مع قرار تصفير الأهداف العسكرية بأن عمدوا الى تصفير الحياة في هذه المنطقة. صار هؤلاء يخشون أن ينكشف أمر الجنود الذين يتحركون بلباس مدني، أو يستخدمون سيارات مدنية للتحرك، وصارت خشيتهم أكبر من أن يكتشف حزب الله هذه الحيلة، وأن يعمد الى ضربهم فيصيب المستوطنين بدلاً من الجنود، ففضّلوا الابتعاد. ومثلما فهموا من إجراءات جيشهم أن حزب الله يستعد لضربة ما، فهموا أيضاً أن حزب الله أنهى عمليته عندما قرر الجنود العودة الى مهامهم الاصلية، مخلّفين أضراراً ستكون على لائحة طلبات رؤساء المجالس المحلية خلال الاسابيع المقبلة.

ان تكون مردوعا يعني ان تفاخرك بعملك الاستباقي صار من ايام الزمن الجميل الذي مضى

هكذا يتصرف من أصابه الردع في صميمه.

أن تكون مردوعاً، يعني أن تكون خائفاً من كل شيء حولك. لا تثق بنفسك ولا بمن يجاورك ولا بمن يفترض به أن يحميك.

أن تكون مردوعاً، يعني أن تكون مدركاً أن هامش الخطأ عندك يضيق يوماً بعد يوم، وأن قدرتك جرى حدّها حتى تتفلت من القواعد والتصرّف من موقع اللامبالاة.

أن تكون مردوعاً، يعني أن قوة الحماية لم تعد تجدي الآن، وأن تفاخرك بعملك الاستباقي صار من أيام الزمن الجميل الذي مضى.

أن تكون مردوعاً، يعني أن تتسمّر أمام الشاشة، منتظراً البلاغ العسكري من عدوّك، ليقول لك متى يحين وقت خروجك الى الشمس.

أن تكون مردوعاً، عندما ترى في الجهة المقابلة دخاناً وناراً، وخلفهما ناس مثلك، يقفون ويصفّقون ويهلّلون، وليسوا بخائفين من شيء.

أن تكون مردوعاً، عندما تلمس أن الارض التي قبالتك، تحمل في بطنها زرعاً مختلفاً، وأشجارها تثمر ما هو أكثر قوة وبأساً من نتاج البساتين.

أن تكون مردوعاً، هو أن تبدأ الآن فصلاً جديداً من حياة ترتبط تفاصيلها بجرس إنذار، يأتيك من خلف الحدود، لا من مركز الجيش أو الشرطة. وأن تبدأ منذ اليوم بالبحث عن وسائل حماية ذاتية لك، ولا تتّكل على جيش ودولة يهرب جنودها بناءً على خطاب!

هذه هي نتيجة مواجهة الأسبوع الماضي، ومع الأيام، سننتظر جميعاً حصاداً من نوع مختلف، حيث القدرة على المناورة أعلى بكثير، إلا في حال قرّر العدو ترك سمائنا لطيورنا فقط!

من ملف : فلسطين… بلا خط أحمر!

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