During a march of solidarity with the Palestinian people on 14 May, a member of the Sanaa government’s Supreme Political Council, Muhammad Ali al-Houthi, accused the Saudi-led coalition of “procrastinating” with its recent promises to end the war and lift the blockade against Yemen.
Houthi said during the march that the Yemeni people must remain “vigilant and constantly prepared.”
“The enemy has so far been procrastinating in stopping the aggression and lifting the siege on Yemen,” he said.
In recent months, Saudi Arabia has been involved in Omani-mediated peace talks with the Ansarallah resistance movement, which have resulted in some progress, including a prisoner exchange, as well as agreements on an eventual lifting of the blockade against Hodeidah port and Sanaa International Airport.
Saudi Arabia has also agreed to pay the salaries of all government employees in the territories of the National Salvation Government (NSG) in Sanaa, among other things.
However, as obstruction of peace efforts by Washington and the UAE continue, Saudi Arabia’s newfound willingness to end the war has been overshadowed – and recently, the coalition has resumed its violations of efforts to solidify a truce by launching border attacks and shelling regions such as Saada province and other areas.
Meanwhile, Ansarallah has maintained its siege over the strategic southwestern province of Taiz.
“We see Saudi Arabia and the UAE today, broken in the face of Yemen … it sees the Iron Dome [in Israel] and how it failed to protect the Zionists. So how can they [the Zionists] protect the normalizing countries, now?” Houthi said, referencing the malfunctions in Israel’s Iron Dome defense system during recent rocket fire on the occupied territories in last week’s battle.
Ansarallah has repeatedly warned that if peace efforts fail, it is prepared for all out war against the coalition, and is ready to strike the depths of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE with missiles.
During the march, Houthi also renewed Ansarallah’s support for the Palestinian cause and resistance, and declared its readiness to confront Israel.
“We affirm, as the Yemeni people, our loyalty to Palestine … we are present for actual and direct participation,” he added.
The Ansarallah movement is known to possess missiles that are capable of reaching Israel, including the Zulfiqar missile, which it has used against Saudi Arabia in the past.
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A flight carrying Yemeni detainees from Saudi Arabia on Saturday heading for Yemen’s capital Sanaa has arrived as part of a large-scale, multi-day exchange that comes as peace talks have raised hopes for an end to Yemen’s eight-year-old war.
On Friday, 318 prisoners were transported on four flights between government-controlled Aden and the Houthi-held capital, reuniting with their families ahead of next week’s Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr. Among those freed were Yemen’s former defense minister and the brother of the ex-president.
— د.مهران السوديDr.mahran.M.A (@Mahran13271727) April 15, 2023
On Saturday, at least three buses took the prisoners to the airport in Abha. Wheelchairs were positioned near the buses to take some of the prisoners to the plane. The ICRC has planned three flights for Saturday between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
Details on the Batch
The first plane of the second batch of liberated prisoners arrived at Sana’a International Airport, carrying more than 125 prisoners, amid a popular and official reception. Then, the second plane arrived from the Mocha area, carrying 44 liberated prisoners. The flight departed before 9 am (0600 GMT) from the southern Saudi city of Abha. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) ICRC has said that nearly 900 detainees are expected to be released as part of the operation.
According to Majid Fadail, spokesman for the government delegation negotiating the exchange, sixteen Saudis and three Sudanese were expected to be transferred from Sanaa to Riyadh on Saturday.
In addition, 100 Houthis were due to be flown on three flights to Sanaa from Mokha on the Red Sea coast, a town held by the coalition-backed government.
The head of the Yemeni Prisoners Affairs Committee, Abdul Qadir Al-Murtada, also stated that a plane carrying over 100 prisoners was coming from Abha Airport in Khamis Mushait, with three flights on board planes belonging to the International Red Cross that will transport prisoners from Khamis Mushait and Al-Mokha. He mentioned that 15 Saudi captives, two Sudanese captives, and two mercenaries would be transferred to Saudi Arabia in this exchange batch. Al-Murtada expressed Sanaa’s willingness to enter into a comprehensive deal to exchange all for all and promised all families of remaining prisoners in the enemy’s prisons that they will continue their efforts until all prisoners are liberated.
Al-Murtada expressed Sanaa’s willingness to enter into a comprehensive deal to exchange all for all and promised all families of remaining prisoners in the enemy’s prisons that they will continue their efforts until all prisoners are liberated.
Confidence-Building Measure
The prisoner exchange is a confidence-building measure coinciding with an intense diplomatic push to end Yemen’s war, which has resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths due to violence, food insecurity, and lack of access to healthcare.
“The exchange process is a great message sent by the Yemeni leadership that it is from the people and for the people, according to Secretary-General of the Presidency of the Republic in Yemen,” Hassan Sharaf al-Din, in a statement to Al-Masirah TV.
He emphasized that Saudi Arabia, the Emirates (UAE), and the mercenaries were involved in the aggression and could not evade the consequences of this war.
In recent developments concerning Yemen’s ongoing conflict, a top Yemeni official clarified that the negotiation to end the aggression and occupation and lift the blockade is solely between Sanaa and the “countries of aggression.” Furthermore, any political solution that follows will be an internal matter handled by Yemenis themselves.
Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed Saeed Al Jaber, visited Sanaa, where he stated that his purpose was to consolidate the current armistice, establish a ceasefire, back a prisoner swap deal, and discuss the means of dialogue between various Yemeni political groups. His ultimate goal is to reach a comprehensive and sustainable political solution in Yemen.
For years, Yemen has been embroiled in a bloody conflict that has caused untold suffering for its people. With multiple factions vying for control, the country has been divided along political and religious lines, and the violence has only intensified. The blockade by the Saudi coalition has worsened the situation, leading to a humanitarian crisis and famine.
Despite international calls for peace, the conflict has persisted with no clear end in sight. It remains to be seen if these recent diplomatic efforts will lead to any tangible progress towards ending the crisis in Yemen. However, with both sides engaging in dialogue, there is hope that a solution can be reached that will bring lasting peace and prosperity to the war-torn nation.
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah hailed in his Al-Quds Day speech on Friday the Saudi-Yemeni deal, emphasizing that Yemen, “which we have supported since the beginning of the war in 2015, is witnessing positive developments pertaining the peace talks,” noting that this would leave positive effects on the axis of resistance, Palestine and Al-Quds.
الأمين العام لحزب الله سماحة السيد حسن نصرالله معلقاً على عملية تبادل الأسرى: ما يشهده اليمن تطور إيجابي والسعودية طرف أساسي في العدوان وهم من يجب أن يقدموا التبريرات.#لن_نترك_أسراناpic.twitter.com/byuXj6A2m7
— أمين أحمد حيان Ameen Hayyan (@ameanhayan) April 14, 2023
As reconciliation efforts sweep through West Asia to mend ties between old foes, the new China- and Russia-brokered deals will not usher in real peace until the US stops prolonging conflict.
The mid-March Moscow summit between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin was notable for being publicized in advance. Since the outbreak of the Syrian war, Assad’s foreign visits have not been publicly revealed until after they have occurred. This small but significant detail suggests the Syrian president has a newfound confidence in the political and security conditions outside his national borders.
While the participants kept a tight lid on leaks, informed sources from both Moscow and Damascus disclosed to The Cradle that the Syrian and Russian presidents discussed the following issues:
Economic ties: With a focus on Syria’s energy sector, Putin expressed Russia’s readiness to invest in the production of electricity in the Levantine state, which post-conflict, suffers from a 75 percent deficit in production. Putin also expressed Moscow’s willingness to help Syria meet its vital grain needs.
Relations with Turkiye: While in Moscow, Assad reportedly refused to hold a four-way meeting between the deputy foreign ministers of Syria, Turkiye, Russia, and Iran. The Syrian president reiterated that Turkiye occupies Syrian lands, and negotiations between the two countries cannot advance from the security to the political level without a clear and public pledge from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to withdraw his military forces from the occupied territories, and open the main roads linking Syrian provinces – particularly the Latakia-Aleppo road, known as theM4 highway.
However, Moscow pressed its case, and reportedly reached an agreement between Damascus and Ankara stipulating that their negotiations would continue and move to the political level, with the main item on the table being Turkish withdrawal from Syrian lands. The basis for a much-awaited summit between Assad and Erdogan will be discussed at a later date.
The sources say that, for domestic political purposes, Erdogan needs to meet Assad before Turkiye’s May presidential elections, to convey to voters that he seeks to stop the war at his country’s southern borders, intends to repatriate the approximately three million Syrian refugees back home – a hot topic for voters – and to assure the Turkish Alevi electorate that he is not hostile to their sect, to which his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu belongs.
Relations with Saudi Arabia: Putin, who has been leading the mediation efforts to normalize Saudi-Syrian relations, briefed Assad on the results of his talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). According to official sources in Damascus and Moscow, Putin’s initiative has made progress in reactivating critical communication between Damascus and Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia’s strategic shifts
On 23 March, 2023, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the start of talks with Syria to reactivate consular work, which is a prelude to the return of normal diplomatic relations between the two countries, as reported by Saudi daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat.
Sources speaking to The Cradle have confirmed that any potential progress in Syrian-Saudi relations are the result of these Russian mediation efforts, and are unrelated to the game-changing Saudi-Iran agreement struck in Beijing on 10 March. The sources believe that a meeting between Riyadh and Damascus may occur after the end of the month of Ramadan.
While the success of Saudi-Iran negotiations under Chinese auspices, and the potential breakthrough in Saudi-Syria relations under Russian sponsorship, suggest a strategic eastward turn for the kingdom, sources close to Riyadh emphasize that there is no change in the Saudi-US relationship.
While Riyadh’s relations with Washington have experienced declines in the past, recent shifts in the global political, economic, and military landscapes have prompted MbS to diversify his country’s partnerships, while preserving the strategic alignment with Washington.
Yemen: Riyadh’s regional albatross
Today, the Saudi crown price is pursuing a “zero problems” policy with neighboring countries. After failing to “transfer the [regional] battle into Iran,” and after his war on Yemen transformed Yemeni Resistance movement Ansarallah from a small organization into a regional force, MbS has realized that his domestic economic, financial, and entertainment mega-projects are doomed without ensuring calm on the kingdom’s borders.
Therefore, since late 2022, he began earnest negotiations with Iran, responded assertively to Russian efforts to mediate with Syria, and began direct talks with Ansarallah in their Sanaa stronghold. The discussions reportedly made significant progress, then stalled in January over several key points, including Riyadh’s “inability” (or unwillingness) to lift the siege on Yemen, the withdrawal of foreign forces from the country, and agreement over an internal political solution to the Yemeni crisis.
As things stand, Riyadh claims that it “cannot force its partners” in the aggression – the UAE and US, in particular – to withdraw their forces from Yemeni territory.
Several Ansarallah allies have assessed that the Saudis want to end the war, but have been prevented from doing so by the US, UK, UAE, and France. However, this estimate changed after Saudi Arabia retracted a number of the pledges it made in the negotiations.
After initially ceasing restrictions on the port of Hodeidah, the UN has returned to obstructing the arrival of some ships to the port. The siege renewal coincided with a visit by US Ambassador to Yemen Stephen Fagin to the UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism (UNVIM) personnel in Djibouti which is tasked with inspecting ships bound for Hodeidah.
In a renewed escalation of tensions, Ansarallah threatened to expel the UN mission in Sanaa within 72 hours if a container ship seized by inspectors in Djibouti was not released. Indeed, before the deadline expired, the UN released the ship.
Although the threat coincided with the US ambassador’s provocative visit, and while it appears that the Americans were trying to undermine the Saudi-Ansarallah understandings, Yemeni sources tell The Cradle that the obstruction of the ships was not exclusively a US decision, but also a Saudi one.
Furthermore, the UN explicitly informed the Sanaa government that the detention of ships proven to be weapons-free was carried out by a decision of the “coalition leadership” – that is, from the Saudis.
So what is Riyadh up to, and who is really obstructing a final solution to the war in Yemen? Is it the Saudis or the Americans?
Sources close to the Sanaa government say that “a comprehensive US-Saudi consensus” still exists over Yemen. The two allies may differ sometimes, but until now, they say:
“Washington and Riyadh still agree on calming things down in Yemen, while keeping the blockade in place. They also agree that Yemen should not be an independent and strong country, capable of controlling its resources or exploiting its geographical location, because that entails strategic risks for Saudi Arabia’s regional role, and for US and Israeli interests in West Asia, the Horn of Africa, and the Red Sea.”
The sources add: “Saudi Arabia and America cannot afford to grant Ansarallah conditions that would enable it to accumulate additional strength and a larger and more effective arsenal.” Simply put, the duo are not seeking an actual end to the war, but are instead pursuing a drawn-out truce.
MbS wants some calm to ensure that missiles and drones do not rain down on his ambitious entertainment and development projects, while the US and the UAE want to keep Yemen fragmented, persist in the theft of its vital oil resource, and at the same time, hold Ansarallah (in northern Yemen) responsible for managing a country that continues to buckle under siege.
Truces, not peace – yet
In short, from Yemen in the south, to Iran in the east, and Syria, Iraq and Turkey in the north, West Asia has entered the post-Arab Spring phase, where once-battling neighbors are seeking to reconnect.
This is a phase governed by ‘armistice agreements’ between countries that have fought each other, directly or via proxies, for more than a decade. Armistice agreements, it should be noted, are not peace treaties, and what this suggests is the continuation of the US-style legacy of “managing conflict,” and never actually ending it.
As multipolarism beckons the world around, it is yet to be seen if Chinese and Russian efforts to stabilize the region in order to advance sweeping connectivity, economic, and development projects will be able to overcome the old “conflict management” and “forever wars” paradigm of the declining unipolar order.
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.
بصورة غير مسبوقة صعد السعوديون هجماتهم الجوية على الأماكن والمنشآت المدنية في اليمن، بإعلان رسمي يقول إن المنشآت المدنية فقدت حصانتها القانونية والإنسانية، لأنها تحولت إلى غطاء للنشاط العسكري اليمني لإطلاق الصواريخ البالستية والطائرات المسيرة نحو الأراضي السعودية، وكان يوم أمس ذروة للتصعيد السياسي والإعلامي في تغطية هذا التصعيد العسكري الذي أدخل مطار صنعاء رسمياً إلى لائحة الأهداف، وخلال سنوات الحرب لم يحيّد السعوديون المدنيون عن استهدافاتهم، لكنهم هذه المرة يصرحون أن المدنيين يتحملون مسؤولية التواجد في مناطق سيتم قصفها، وسيتم ابلاغ المدنيين عبر الإعلام عن ضرورة إخلائها قبل ساعات، وتأتي هذة الجولة التصعيدية تتويجاً لمحاولة إقامة ردع جوي مقابل ما أظهر اليمنيون من قدرة على مواصلة استهداف العمق السعودي على رغم الغارات الجوية السعودية، أملاً بأن يتحقق عبر هذا التصعيد ما لم يتحقق قبله.
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أصل التعقيد الذي يواجهه السعوديون سابق لتبادل قصف العمق، ومصدره التطورات الجارية في البر اليمني في غير صالح الرؤية السعودية، والحسابات السعودية، في مجالات بات من الصعب اصلاح الخراب اللاحق فيها، ولا يجيب عليها الحديث عن أن أنصار الله يتخذون المدنيين درعاً بشرياً لسلاحهم، فالإخفاق السعودي يبدأ من الفشل المتمادي خلال سنوات في تطبيق مستدام لاتفاق الرياض الذي يجمعهم بالإمارات، ويضم جماعة الفريقين السعودي والإماراتي من اليمنيين، لضمان وحدة الحركة والأداء، ويعرف السعوديون أن لا علاقة لأنصار الله في هذه الأزمة التي تحولت إلى صراع دموي دائم بين الفريقين، وإلى عجز عن تحقيق الحد الأدنى من التنسيق والتكامل، ويكفي استعادة مشهد الانسحاب الأخير من الحديدة، وبما تشهده عدن، لفهم أول وجوه الاخفاق التي باتت فوق القدرة السعودية على السيطرة.
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الوجه الثاني للإخفاق تمثل في ظهور جماعة منصور هادي التي يتخذها السعوديون واجهة لحربهم، كجماعة معزولة عن الشعب والمجتمع، فالحكومة تسكن الفنادق السعودية كما الرئيس، ووكلاء الوزارات يتوزعون فنادق الرياض و القاهرة، وجميعهم بنظر المواطن اليمني مجموعة من المرتزقة والفاشلين، وتظاهرات تعز وعدن وشبوة وسواها ضد الحكومة، تقول ما يكفي عن هذا الاخفاق، ويعرف السعوديون أنهم ما لم يتولوا مباشرة المواجهة مع أنصار الله فإن جماعة منصور هادي لا تستطيع البقاء على قيد الوجود في أي بقعة يمنية، وهذا يجلب القلق السعودي من أي حل سياسي ينتهي برحيلهم، ويجعل مصير جماعة منصور هادي شبيهاً بمصير جماعة أشرف غني الأفغانية، ومن تداعيات هذا الاخفاق هو القبول السعودي بأن تتولى جماعة الإخوان المسلمين تحت اسم حزب الاصلاح، قيادة الوضع في أكثر من محافظة يمنية بصفتها الجهة القادرة على تأمين المسلحين، لخوض المواجهة مع أنصار الله، وهذا هو الحال في مأرب.
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الوجه الأهم للإخفاق هو التطور المستدام في جبهة مأرب، لصالح أنصار الله، فالوقائع الميادنية تؤكد أن التقدم مضطرد ومتواصل في الجبهات، ولو بمئات الأمتار كل يوم، وأن التلال المحيطة بمأرب قد حسمت خلال الأيام الماضية لصالح الأنصار، ويعرف السعوديون أن التقدم يوشك على بلوغ النقطة الفاصلة، وأنه إذا وصلها صار الحديث عن ميزان القوى الذي سيحكم كل الحلول والتسويات مختلفاً، وهم يعرفون أيضاً أن هذا بات محسوماً والمسألة مسألة وقت، ولكنهم لا ينتبهون إلى أن كلامهم عن تجاوز الاعتبارات القانونية الإنسانية في استهداف الأماكن المدنية، يحرر الأنصار من هذا الاعتبار الذي يقيد حركتهم العسكرية نحو مدينة مأرب، حيث الذي يتخذ المدنيين دروعاً بشرية ليسوا أنصار الله القادمين إلى جبهات القتال بوحداتهم العسكرية وليس بجماهيرهم، بينما يحتمي خصومهم داخل معسكرات النازحين وشوارع المدينة وأحيائها.
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يحاول السعوديون خلق أمر وقائع عسكري يقوم على تجميد القتال، مقابل تجميد عمليات القصف، قبل أن تستأنف المفاوضات في فيينا في الجولة الثامنة، التي يبدو أنها ستكون حاسمة، أملاً بدخول تفاوض على الملف اليمني من دون تغييرات دراماتيكية، لكن يبدو أنهم يسرعون حدوثها بخطواتهم التصعيدية.
Beirut – Saudi Arabia that has ignited unfounded irrational crisis with Lebanon, continues to exercise its mounting pressure on the country to dictate its political will, avenge its humiliating defeat in Yemen, and invest in tension to yield electoral gains in the next parliamentary elections early next year.
Riyadh has used a feeble pretext to escalate the situation; a statement by the Lebanese minister of information that he pronounced prior to assuming his office depicting the war in Yemen as absurd and aimless.
Saudi Arabia launched a fierce campaign against Lebanon threatening to severe the relations; announced Lebanese ambassador to Riyadh persona non grata and summoned its ambassador to Lebanon back to Riyadh.
Not only that, Saudi Arabia dictated on other Gulf countries especially Bahrain, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates to follow its path and impose similar stern measures against Lebanon.
Digging into the reasons as why Riyadh is punishing Lebanon and the Lebanese, we could simply find the following:
First, Riyadh is outraged with the futility of its allies in Lebanon that yielded no gains whatsoever in their antagonistic relation with Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia had supplied them with all kinds of support and spent billions of dollars to fight the party through its allies, and the whole issue ended with Hezbollah accumulating gains and successes on every level.
Riyadh has never treated Lebanon as a sovereign independent state, but as an another arena for its political influence where it could dictate its will as it likes. This was clearly dramatized when it imprisoned former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and forced him to resign back in 2017.
Second, Riyadh wants Lebanon to hold the brunt and responsibility of its humiliating defeat in Yemen, it accuses Hezbollah of helping Ansarullah and supplying them with military expertise.
Hezbollah has clearly announced its condemnation for the Saudi criminal war against the Yemenis, politically and morally and on media outlets supported their struggle against Riyadh aggression. After it has exhausted other places in Iraq and Syria, and not finding any other place to avenge its defeat and continued losses, Saudi Arabia is taking revenge on Lebanon using Hezbollah as a pretext to compensate its defeat in Yemen.
Third, Hezbollah is the target for a persistent campaign from the Western Powers headed by Washington and its proxy “Israel” and aided by retrogressive Arab countries headed by Saudi Arabia.
Now, after their failed military attempts to eradicate the Resistance in Lebanon, thanks to the Axis of Resistance that successfully sabotaged their aggressive conspiracies, those sinister tyrant powers have joined efforts to make use of the coming parliamentary elections to gain the majority, so it can carry out a comprehensive change in the political scene.
To sum up, Riyadh’s oppressive aggression against Lebanon is baseless and unjustifiable. It is surely doomed to fail as its precedents.
Riyadh is not only acting in an irrational way, more dangerously, it lacks a sober and wise foreign policy, no wonder it is making all these grave strategic mistakes.
From Lebanon to Yemen, the same shameful scenario is on play with the signature of a director who lacks any vision, Mohammad bin Salman!
A report revealed that Saudi Arabia has turned to the United States to seek help in strengthening its missile interception systems, as the kingdom — which has been leading a protracted war on Yemen — remains unable to protect its soil against its southern neighbor’s retaliatory operations.
Riyadh is seeking the US help amid pressure by Washington to end its blockade of Yemeni ports that is an obstacle to ceasefire talks, Reuters quoted two sources with knowledge of discussions to end the Yemen war as well as a US official as saying.
“Publicly and privately, we’ve been putting a lot of attention on the port and the airport issue… It’s the right thing for Saudi Arabia to do,” the senior US government official said on condition of anonymity.
The source was referring to US pressure on the Saudi-led war coalition against Yemen to fully open access to the ports and the Sanaa airport, controlled by the Yemeni government, as demanded by the Ansraullah movement, which runs state affairs, as prerequisites to ceasefire talks.
The Riyadh regime, however, wants the US to first provide it with weapons so it can promote its air systems in the face of the Yemeni army’s stepped-up drone and missile operations on the kingdom’s soil, according to the sources.
Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a military campaign against Yemen to overthrow the popular Ansarullah movement and reinstall the Riyadh-friendly regime of Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, who resigned in 2014 and fled to the kingdom.
The prolonged war, accompanied by an economic siege that has targeted Yemen’s key ports, has failed to reach its goals, killing hundreds of thousands of Yemeni people, and in turn, throwing the poorest Middle Eastern country into what the UN calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
According to the latest estimate by UNICEF, the protracted war on Yemen has killed or maimed at least 10,000 children, which is equivalent to four children every day.
Riyadh enjoyed cordial relations with the US under former president, Donald Trump, who inked hefty arms deals with the kingdom despite worldwide outcry over Riyadh’s war against Yemen and its human rights violations, including the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
However, under Joe Biden, the US has sought to reflect a hardening of its attitudes toward Saudi Arabia, with Biden vowing to end his predecessor’s carte blanche to the kingdom.
Some Lebanese hope that the stage of new U.S. President Joe Biden will be less damaging to the situation of their country than that of his predecessor Trump, who has not yet acknowledged his election loss.
It must be emphasized that political relations are not based on hopes as much as on the balance of power and the possibility of achieving goals and alliances.
Accordingly, the U.S. project, which began after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, took the forms of a U.S. military invasion from Afghanistan to Iraq using an Israeli attack on Hezbollah in July 2006 that focused on the south, but it covered most of Lebanon and was part of the Middle East fragmentation project, which the former Secretary of State described from her country’s embassy in Beirut in 2006 as a project for a large Middle East, and the Americans completed their attack in Libya and Syria, interfering in Egypt and covering the war on Yemen, and the players of Sudan and Tunisia.
This project has been hit hard in the Trump phase, unable to make any progress in any part of the region, so he tried to compensate for the imposition of normalization between the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan with the Israeli entity has no real value in terms of balances in the Middle East because all these countries are a historical part of American influence.
The Americans found another way to tame the Middle East: the method of economic blockade and sanctions as alternative means of persuasion from failed military wars.
Lebanon is one of the countries under the yoke of U.S. economic and political sanctions, considering that attempts to control its successive governments, which are under formation, have not succeeded in their goals.
Attempts to provoke the pro-American Lebanese alliance have not reached a useful conclusion, as the other party opposed to them holds very strong political and popular balances.
Therefore, the imposition of sanctions on the head of the Free Patriotic Movement Gibran Bassil is part of the American attempts to bring about a major change in the internal balance of power that was supposed to cause confusion for Hezbollah..
But Bassil refrained from meeting u.S. orders, which led to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on his political and economic movement, accusing him of. corruption that the whole world knows includes the entire Lebanese political class from 1990 to the present without any exception, and most of those belonging to it are Allies of the Americans and the Gulf with some European rapproches.
The first is to target Hezbollah’s internal strength, and the second is to push the pro-American Lebanese Christian forces to gain near-total control over their social environment, which also leads to hizbullah’s confusion in its confrontational movement against the occupied entity in southern Lebanon and the fight against terrorism in Syria and Lebanon.
So far, all these attempts have belonged to the era of President Trump, inherited from the era of Bush, Son and Obama..
But America today is emerging from a presidential election in which The Democratic Biden and Trump Republican failed..
Does the new president deal with Lebanon differently?
The reality is that the Americans deal with Lebanon on the basis of regional conflict and do not rely much on its internal issues, the region for them includes Iran, the Gulf, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, and these are so closely linked that one can only be separated from the other if there is a major change in one for the benefit of the Americans that requires it to be separated from the regional situation and reintegrated into the Gulf-Israeli package.
But the Lebanese balances are the same, as evidenced by the fact that the two parties’ insistence on amal and Hezbollah to mandate Saad Hariri to form a new government did not result in a preponderance of the U.S. axis in Lebanon as much as reflecting the tendency of the two to achieve an internal truce that prevents any internal sectarian or sectarian clashes on which U.S. policy works with Gulf support.
Is Biden repeating the same policies. of his predecessor Trump in the region?
Therefore, logic is that the major military options in the Middle East have become more excluded with the success of Iran in the steadfastness, as well as Yemen, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon..
This is with situations that are not what the Americans in Iraq desire.
In other words, Biden finds himself forced to seek settlements with Iran first and foremost for multiple importances,the first of which has iran’s second gas in the world in terms of production, in addition to oil and huge amounts of uranium that are not yetinvested.
As for Iran, the political state of Sana’a is the victor, the popular mobilization in Iraq, the Syrian state and Hezbollah in Lebanon, meaning that any real truce with it or a real settlement includes most of the countries of the region, including of course Lebanon in such a way that it is possible to produce a new government represented by the alliance of the national current with the duo Amal, Hezbollah, future Hariri, Jumblatt, Franjieh and Armenians, while the party of the forces isolates itself refraining from participating.
This is the only way to reproduce normal U.S. relations in the entire region, including, of course, Lebanon, which is بايدن eagerly awaiting Biden in the hope of lifting the sanctions on Bassil and lifting the blockade on Lebanon to restore balances to normal..
يأمل بعض اللبنانيين أن تكون مرحلة الرئيس الأميركي الجديد جو بايدن أقل ضرراً على أوضاع بلدهم من مرحلة سلفه ترامب الذي لم يعترف بخسارته في الانتخابات حتى الآن.
لا بد أولاً من تأكيد أن العلاقات السياسيّة لا تستند الى الآمال بقدر ما تتكئ على موازين القوى وإمكانية تحقيق الأهداف والتحالفات.
بناء عليه فإن المشروع الأميركي الذي ابتدأ بعد انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي في 1989 اخذ أشكال غزو عسكري أميركي من افغانستان الى العراق مستخدماً هجوماً اسرائيلياً على حزب الله في تموز 2006 تمحور حول الجنوب، لكنه شمل معظم مناطق لبنان وكان يشكل جزءاً من مشروع تفتيت الشرق الأوسط الذي وصفته الوزيرة الأميركية السابقة من سفارة بلادها في بيروت في 2006 بأنه مشروع لشرق اوسط كبير، واستكمل الأميركيون هجومهم في سورية وليبيا متدخلين في مصر ومغطين الحرب على اليمن، ومتلاعبين بالسودان وتونس والجزائر.
هذا المشروع أصيب بضربات قوية في مرحلة ترامب عاجزاً عن تحقيق أي تقدم في اي بقعة من المنطقة، فحاول التعويض بفرض تطبيع بين الإمارات والبحرين والسودان مع الكيان الإسرائيلي لا قيمة فعلية له على مستوى التوازنات في الشرق الأوسط لأن كل هذه البلدان هي جزء تاريخي من النفوذ الأميركي.
فوجد الأميركيون نهجاً آخر لترويض الشرق الأوسط وهو أسلوب الحصار الاقتصادي وفرض العقوبات كوسائل إقناع بديلة من الحروب العسكرية الفاشلة.
لبنان اذاً هو واحد من البلدان الواقعة تحت نير العقوبات الأميركية الاقتصادية والسياسية باعتبار ان محاولات السيطرة على حكوماته المتعاقبة والتي قيد التشكيل لم تفلح في مراميها.
كما أن محاولات استنهاض الحلف اللبناني المؤيد للأميركيين لم يصل الى نتيجة مفيدة باعتبار أن الطرف الآخر المناهض لهم يمسك بتوازنات سياسية وشعبية قوية جداً.
لذلك فإن فرض عقوبات على رئيس التيار الوطني الحر جبران باسيل هو جزء من المحاولات الأميركية لإحداث تغيير كبير في موازين القوى الداخلية كان من المفروض ان تتسبب بإرباكات لحزب الله.
لكن باسيل امتنع عن تلبية الأوامر الأميركية ما أدّى الى فرض عقوبات أميركية على حركته السياسية والاقتصادية مع اتهامه بفساد يعرف العالم بأسره أنه يشمل كامل الطبقة السياسية اللبنانية منذ 1990 حتى تاريخه من دون أي استثناء ومعظم المنتمين إليها هم من حلفاء الأميركيين والخليجيين مع بعض التقاربات الأوروبية.
بما يؤكد أن الاستهداف الأميركي لباسيل له سببان: الأول هو التصويب على القوة الداخلية لحزب الله، والثاني دفع القوى المسيحيّة اللبنانية الموالية للأميركيين الى تحقيق سيطرة شبه كاملة على بيئتها الاجتماعية، بما يؤدي أيضاً الى إرباك حزب الله في حركيّته المجابهة للكيان المحتل في جنوب لبنان والمكافحة ضد الإرهاب في سورية ولبنان.
حتى الآن تنتمي كل هذه المحاولات الى مرحلة الرئيس ترامب التي ورثتها عن عهود بوش الأب والإبن وأوباما.
لكن أميركا اليوم تخرج من انتخابات رئاسية نجح فيها بايدن الديمقراطي وفشل فيها ترامب الجمهوري.
فهل يتعامل الرئيس الجديد مع لبنان بشكل مختلف؟
الواقع يقول إن الأميركيين يتعاملون مع لبنان على اساس الصراع الإقليمي ولا يعولون كثيراً على مسألته الداخلية، فالمنطقة بالنسبة اليهم تشمل إيران والخليج والعراق وسورية ولبنان واليمن، وهذه شديدة الترابط بحيث لا يمكن فصل واحدة عن الأخرى إلا اذا حدث تغيير كبير في إحداها لمصلحة الأميركيين تتطلب فصلها عن الوضع الإقليمي واعادة ضمها الى الباقة الخليجية الإسرائيلية.
لكن التوازنات اللبنانية على حالها، بدليل أن إصرار الثنائي حركة امل وحزب الله على تكليف سعد الحريري بتشكيل حكومة جديدة لم ينتج عن رجحان للمحور الأميركي في لبنان بقدر ما عكس ميلاً من الثنائي لتحقيق هدنة داخلية تمنع أي صدامات داخلية مذهبية او طائفية تعمل عليها السياسة الأميركية بدعم خليجي.
فهل يكرّر بايدن سياسات سلفه ترامب نفسها في المنطقة؟ السياسات واحدة لا تتغير، لكن الأساليب هي التي تتبدل، والاهمية بالنسبة للأميركيين هي الاستئثار بأكبر كمية ممكنة من اقتصادات الشرق الاوسط لإعادة ضخّها في اقتصادهم الداخلي.
لذلك يعتبر المنطق أن الخيارات العسكرية الكبرى في منطقة الشرق الأوسط اصبحت اكثر استبعاداً مع نجاح إيران في الصمود وكذلك اليمن وسورية وحزب الله في لبنان.
هذا مع أوضاع ليست كما يشتهيها الأميركيون في العراق.
بمعنى أن بايدن يجد نفسه مضطراً الى البحث عن تسويات مع إيران أولاً وأخيراً لأهميات متعددة اصبحت بحوزتها واولها الغاز الإيراني الثاني عالمياً على مستوى الانتاج بالإضافة الى النفط وكميات ضخمة من الاورانيوم ليست مستثمرة حتى الآن.
اما إيران السياسية فهي حليفة دولة صنعاء المنتصرة والحشد الشعبي في العراق والدولة السورية وحزب الله في لبنان، بمعنى أن أي هدنة حقيقية معها أو تسوية حقيقية فهذا يشمل معظم دول المنطقة ومنها بالطبع لبنان بشكل يصبح فيه ممكناً إنتاج حكومة جديدة يتمثل فيها حلف التيار الوطني مع الثنائي أمل وحزب الله والمستقبل الحريري وجنبلاط وفرنجية والأرمن، فيما يعزل حزب القوات نفسه ممتنعاً عن المشاركة.
هذا هو الطريق الوحيد الذي يعاود إنتاج علاقات أميركية طبيعية في المنطقة بكاملها، ومنها بالطبع لبنان الذي يترقب بايدن بفارغ الصبر آملاً إلغاء العقوبات عن باسيل وفك الحصار عن لبنان لإعادة التوازنات الى طبيعتها.
Throughout history – from the ancient empires and the priests of the pharaohs, to modern times, via pictures and screens – countries and regimes worldwide have been striving to justify the wars they wage and give various reasons for resorting to arms, as well as, trying to mark every single fault of their enemy, giving their soldiers and officials the grounds for heroism.
Inside and outside Yemen, the hopeless Saudi-American war is marching towards its sixth year, with an unprecedented intention to a bloody failure and complete fall. Saudi Arabia and its allies are increasing their craziness, trying to divert attention from the crimes against humanity by committing more horrible crimes. The pretext here is: national security, the concept that Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Cairo are always hanging on to. They are all fighting Yemenis to protect their national security while they are groveling to Netanyahu! The war against Yemen is the same as any war that happened in history; not more than leaders seeking a “monumental” and peerless military achievement that would legitimize their victory. During a historical crisis that all Arabic regimes are experiencing, the Zionist entity became their friend, ally and brother, in the face of people who are materially the poorest in the Arab Region and Arabian Peninsula.
Starting with the western media, the American primarily and the European secondly, Gulf regimes fought the first battle, led by bin Zayed and bin Salman, to buy consciences and stances, succeeding to make the war against Yemen tenable through the world. It wasn’t harder in the Arab World as Qatar joined them with its channels at the beginning of the war, then it encouraged other countries such as Egypt and Sudan to join the alliance.
At the beginning of the war, more than 5 years ago, all stances were ready to be sold, and the money of Al Saud and Al Zayed was ready to buy them. They succeeded to mark their missiles, tanks and warships by “morality” and direct them towards a defenseless nation.
The leadership of the aggression alliance achieved what appeared to be the media victory, in the inauguration of its military campaign against Yemen. All voices that had been opposing the war were silent, or silenced.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates tried so hard to conceal their intervention in Yemen using the moral cover in a region which, looking at everyone and everything in it, seems like a slaughterhouse. No matter how much they might try to beautify themselves, they will never seem peaceful. As it proceeded, the war continued to exhaust the capacity of the two states, which everyone thought endless.
As the years went by, Saudi Arabia squandered its affluent treasury, including the wealth and capacities, for the sake of the alliance and the Arab fascist regimes, and it didn’t stop squandering in the fear of a remarkable Yemeni victory that would firstly deprive it from the opportunity of enthroning the heir presumptive; secondly give Yemen the opportunity of looking at historical demands concerning regions that the Yemenis consider to be unfairly taken from them in earlier stages; and most significantly, grant Yemen the ability to demonstrate its powerful model that just beat all the Gulf states.
The Saudi treasury, that today seems to be in miserable conditions, is deepening the woes of Al Saud. Just before the war against Yemen, at the end of 2014, all the external debts owed by the SA were around $12 billion, worth nothing for the world’s richest state.
Only 5 years later, these debts increased by 1400%, according to data from the World Bank, which unmasked a record high in the debts owed by Saudi Arabia that reached $150 billion in 2018, then $183 billion at the end of 2019, and it goes on and on. It is the Yemeni victory, not the defeat of Saudi Arabia that would haunt rulers in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
As the war progressed, the Gulf media failed, in parallel with the military failure, to continue marshalling opinions that convict Yemenis and their armed forces. The available pictures of mass destruction in Yemen shows the scale of the Arab crime, whether by contributing or staying silent. International actors finally started to draw attention by sharing chilling reports about the humanitarian situation in all Yemeni regions. Nothing could be more evident than the UNICEF’s report concerning the disaster, as it says that “Every single hour, a mother and 6 children are killed throughout Yemen, and because of the maritime and airborne barbaric blockades of Yemen by the alliance, health services have completely collapsed, and it is difficult to obtain medical supplies or buy and import medicine and equipment!”
Since the war has been prolonged, it is obviously an end in itself. It uses the importation of arms, in a region that doesn’t fear any external or internal threats, as a large door for commissions and enormous profits. And with the drain of the war, all Gulf people’s properties became under the control of Western arms furnishers. The treason is now completed. On the economic side: the war caused the waste of enormous opportunities in an era where petroleum is missing its decisive influence and its incomes are declining, and on the social side: the abundant arms like a sword hanging over the heads of those who refuse to be loyal to furnishers, or think outside the box to which they are supposed to stick.
Only now, all imaginations that anyone could control Yemen over have become a well-established fact, more than being a future expectation. Today, everyone knows and conceives that the end will not be in Sanaa or Aden; but the beginning of the end will be in Jizan and Najran, and the absolute end will be in Riyadh.
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