Do Americans continue to strangle Lebanon? هل يواصل الأميركيّون خنق لبنان؟

Do Americans continue to strangle Lebanon?

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Some Lebanese hope that the stage of new U.S. President Joe Biden will be less damaging to the situation of their country than that of his predecessor Trump, who has not yet acknowledged his election loss.

It must be emphasized that political relations are not based on hopes as much as on the balance of power and the possibility of achieving goals and alliances.

Accordingly, the U.S. project, which began after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, took the forms of a U.S. military invasion from Afghanistan to Iraq using an Israeli attack on Hezbollah in July 2006 that focused on the south, but it covered most of Lebanon and was part of the Middle East fragmentation project, which the former Secretary of State described from her country’s embassy in Beirut in 2006 as a project for a large Middle East, and the Americans completed their attack in Libya and Syria, interfering in Egypt and covering the war on Yemen, and the players of Sudan and Tunisia.

This project has been hit hard in the Trump phase, unable to make any progress in any part of the region, so he tried to compensate for the imposition of normalization between the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan with the Israeli entity has no real value in terms of balances in the Middle East because all these countries are a historical part of American influence.

The Americans found another way to tame the Middle East: the method of economic blockade and sanctions as alternative means of persuasion from failed military wars.

Lebanon is one of the countries under the yoke of U.S. economic and political sanctions, considering that attempts to control its successive governments, which are under formation, have not succeeded in their goals.

Attempts to provoke the pro-American Lebanese alliance have not reached a useful conclusion, as the other party opposed to them holds very strong political and popular balances.

Therefore, the imposition of sanctions on the head of the Free Patriotic Movement Gibran Bassil is part of the American attempts to bring about a major change in the internal balance of power that was supposed to cause confusion for  Hezbollah..

But Bassil refrained from meeting u.S. orders, which led to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on his political and economic movement, accusing him of. corruption that the whole world knows includes the entire Lebanese political class from 1990 to the present without any exception, and most of those belonging to it are Allies of the Americans and the Gulf with some European rapproches.

The first is to target Hezbollah’s internal strength, and the second is to push the pro-American Lebanese Christian forces to gain near-total control over their social environment, which also leads to hizbullah’s confusion in its confrontational movement against the occupied entity in southern Lebanon and the fight against terrorism in Syria and Lebanon.

So far, all these attempts have belonged to the era of President Trump, inherited from the era of Bush, Son and  Obama..

But America today is emerging from a presidential election in which The Democratic Biden and Trump Republican failed..

Does the new president deal with Lebanon differently?

The reality is that the Americans deal with Lebanon on the basis of regional conflict and do not rely much on its internal issues, the region for them includes Iran, the Gulf, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, and these are so closely linked that one can only be separated from the other if there is a major change in one for the benefit of the Americans that requires it to be separated from the regional situation and reintegrated into the Gulf-Israeli package.

But the Lebanese balances are the same, as evidenced by the fact that the two parties’ insistence on amal and Hezbollah to mandate Saad Hariri to form a new government did not result in a preponderance of the U.S. axis in Lebanon as much as reflecting the tendency of the two to achieve an internal truce that prevents any internal sectarian or sectarian clashes on which U.S. policy works with Gulf support.

Is Biden  repeating the same policies. of his predecessor Trump in the region?

Therefore, logic is that the major military options in the Middle East have become more  excluded with the success of Iran in the steadfastness, as well as Yemen, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon..

This is with situations that are not what the Americans in Iraq desire.

In other words, Biden  finds himself forced to seek settlements with Iran first and foremost for multiple importances,the first of which has iran’s second gas in the world in terms of production, in addition to oil and huge amounts of uranium that are not yetinvested.

As for Iran, the political state of Sana’a is the victor, the popular mobilization in Iraq, the Syrian state and Hezbollah in Lebanon, meaning that any real truce with it or a real settlement includes most of the countries of the region, including of course Lebanon in such a way that it is possible to produce a new government represented by the alliance of the national current with the duo Amal, Hezbollah, future Hariri, Jumblatt, Franjieh and Armenians, while the party of the forces isolates itself refraining from participating.

This is the only way to reproduce normal U.S. relations in the entire region, including, of course, Lebanon, which is بايدن  eagerly awaiting Biden in the hope of lifting the sanctions on Bassil and lifting the blockade on Lebanon to restore balances to normal..

هل يواصل الأميركيّون خنق لبنان؟

د. وفيق إبراهيم

يأمل بعض اللبنانيين أن تكون مرحلة الرئيس الأميركي الجديد جو بايدن أقل ضرراً على أوضاع بلدهم من مرحلة سلفه ترامب الذي لم يعترف بخسارته في الانتخابات حتى الآن.

لا بد أولاً من تأكيد أن العلاقات السياسيّة لا تستند الى الآمال بقدر ما تتكئ على موازين القوى وإمكانية تحقيق الأهداف والتحالفات.

بناء عليه فإن المشروع الأميركي الذي ابتدأ بعد انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي في 1989 اخذ أشكال غزو عسكري أميركي من افغانستان الى العراق مستخدماً هجوماً اسرائيلياً على حزب الله في تموز 2006 تمحور حول الجنوب، لكنه شمل معظم مناطق لبنان وكان يشكل جزءاً من مشروع تفتيت الشرق الأوسط الذي وصفته الوزيرة الأميركية السابقة من سفارة بلادها في بيروت في 2006 بأنه مشروع لشرق اوسط كبير، واستكمل الأميركيون هجومهم في سورية وليبيا متدخلين في مصر ومغطين الحرب على اليمن، ومتلاعبين بالسودان وتونس والجزائر.

هذا المشروع أصيب بضربات قوية في مرحلة ترامب عاجزاً عن تحقيق أي تقدم في اي بقعة من المنطقة، فحاول التعويض بفرض تطبيع بين الإمارات والبحرين والسودان مع الكيان الإسرائيلي لا قيمة فعلية له على مستوى التوازنات في الشرق الأوسط لأن كل هذه البلدان هي جزء تاريخي من النفوذ الأميركي.

فوجد الأميركيون نهجاً آخر لترويض الشرق الأوسط وهو أسلوب الحصار الاقتصادي وفرض العقوبات كوسائل إقناع بديلة من الحروب العسكرية الفاشلة.

لبنان اذاً هو واحد من البلدان الواقعة تحت نير العقوبات الأميركية الاقتصادية والسياسية باعتبار ان محاولات السيطرة على حكوماته المتعاقبة والتي قيد التشكيل لم تفلح في مراميها.

كما أن محاولات استنهاض الحلف اللبناني المؤيد للأميركيين لم يصل الى نتيجة مفيدة باعتبار أن الطرف الآخر المناهض لهم يمسك بتوازنات سياسية وشعبية قوية جداً.

لذلك فإن فرض عقوبات على رئيس التيار الوطني الحر جبران باسيل هو جزء من المحاولات الأميركية لإحداث تغيير كبير في موازين القوى الداخلية كان من المفروض ان تتسبب بإرباكات لحزب الله.

لكن باسيل امتنع عن تلبية الأوامر الأميركية ما أدّى الى فرض عقوبات أميركية على حركته السياسية والاقتصادية مع اتهامه بفساد يعرف العالم بأسره أنه يشمل كامل الطبقة السياسية اللبنانية منذ 1990 حتى تاريخه من دون أي استثناء ومعظم المنتمين إليها هم من حلفاء الأميركيين والخليجيين مع بعض التقاربات الأوروبية.

بما يؤكد أن الاستهداف الأميركي لباسيل له سببان: الأول هو التصويب على القوة الداخلية لحزب الله، والثاني دفع القوى المسيحيّة اللبنانية الموالية للأميركيين الى تحقيق سيطرة شبه كاملة على بيئتها الاجتماعية، بما يؤدي أيضاً الى إرباك حزب الله في حركيّته المجابهة للكيان المحتل في جنوب لبنان والمكافحة ضد الإرهاب في سورية ولبنان.

حتى الآن تنتمي كل هذه المحاولات الى مرحلة الرئيس ترامب التي ورثتها عن عهود بوش الأب والإبن وأوباما.

لكن أميركا اليوم تخرج من انتخابات رئاسية نجح فيها بايدن الديمقراطي وفشل فيها ترامب الجمهوري.

فهل يتعامل الرئيس الجديد مع لبنان بشكل مختلف؟

الواقع يقول إن الأميركيين يتعاملون مع لبنان على اساس الصراع الإقليمي ولا يعولون كثيراً على مسألته الداخلية، فالمنطقة بالنسبة اليهم تشمل إيران والخليج والعراق وسورية ولبنان واليمن، وهذه شديدة الترابط بحيث لا يمكن فصل واحدة عن الأخرى إلا اذا حدث تغيير كبير في إحداها لمصلحة الأميركيين تتطلب فصلها عن الوضع الإقليمي واعادة ضمها الى الباقة الخليجية الإسرائيلية.

لكن التوازنات اللبنانية على حالها، بدليل أن إصرار الثنائي حركة امل وحزب الله على تكليف سعد الحريري بتشكيل حكومة جديدة لم ينتج عن رجحان للمحور الأميركي في لبنان بقدر ما عكس ميلاً من الثنائي لتحقيق هدنة داخلية تمنع أي صدامات داخلية مذهبية او طائفية تعمل عليها السياسة الأميركية بدعم خليجي.

فهل يكرّر بايدن سياسات سلفه ترامب نفسها في المنطقة؟ السياسات واحدة لا تتغير، لكن الأساليب هي التي تتبدل، والاهمية بالنسبة للأميركيين هي الاستئثار بأكبر كمية ممكنة من اقتصادات الشرق الاوسط لإعادة ضخّها في اقتصادهم الداخلي.

لذلك يعتبر المنطق أن الخيارات العسكرية الكبرى في منطقة الشرق الأوسط اصبحت اكثر استبعاداً مع نجاح إيران في الصمود وكذلك اليمن وسورية وحزب الله في لبنان.

هذا مع أوضاع ليست كما يشتهيها الأميركيون في العراق.

بمعنى أن بايدن يجد نفسه مضطراً الى البحث عن تسويات مع إيران أولاً وأخيراً لأهميات متعددة اصبحت بحوزتها واولها الغاز الإيراني الثاني عالمياً على مستوى الانتاج بالإضافة الى النفط وكميات ضخمة من الاورانيوم ليست مستثمرة حتى الآن.

اما إيران السياسية فهي حليفة دولة صنعاء المنتصرة والحشد الشعبي في العراق والدولة السورية وحزب الله في لبنان، بمعنى أن أي هدنة حقيقية معها أو تسوية حقيقية فهذا يشمل معظم دول المنطقة ومنها بالطبع لبنان بشكل يصبح فيه ممكناً إنتاج حكومة جديدة يتمثل فيها حلف التيار الوطني مع الثنائي أمل وحزب الله والمستقبل الحريري وجنبلاط وفرنجية والأرمن، فيما يعزل حزب القوات نفسه ممتنعاً عن المشاركة.

هذا هو الطريق الوحيد الذي يعاود إنتاج علاقات أميركية طبيعية في المنطقة بكاملها، ومنها بالطبع لبنان الذي يترقب بايدن بفارغ الصبر آملاً إلغاء العقوبات عن باسيل وفك الحصار عن لبنان لإعادة التوازنات الى طبيعتها.

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The Failed Saudi War

The Failed Saudi War

By Ahmed Fouad

Throughout history – from the ancient empires and the priests of the pharaohs, to modern times, via pictures and screens – countries and regimes worldwide have been striving to justify the wars they wage and give various reasons for resorting to arms, as well as, trying to mark every single fault of their enemy, giving their soldiers and officials the grounds for heroism.

Inside and outside Yemen, the hopeless Saudi-American war is marching towards its sixth year, with an unprecedented intention to a bloody failure and complete fall. Saudi Arabia and its allies are increasing their craziness, trying to divert attention from the crimes against humanity by committing more horrible crimes. The pretext here is: national security, the concept that Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Cairo are always hanging on to. They are all fighting Yemenis to protect their national security while they are groveling to Netanyahu! The war against Yemen is the same as any war that happened in history; not more than leaders seeking a “monumental” and peerless military achievement that would legitimize their victory. During a historical crisis that all Arabic regimes are experiencing, the Zionist entity became their friend, ally and brother, in the face of people who are materially the poorest in the Arab Region and Arabian Peninsula.

Starting with the western media, the American primarily and the European secondly, Gulf regimes fought the first battle, led by bin Zayed and bin Salman, to buy consciences and stances, succeeding to make the war against Yemen tenable through the world. It wasn’t harder in the Arab World as Qatar joined them with its channels at the beginning of the war, then it encouraged other countries such as Egypt and Sudan to join the alliance.

At the beginning of the war, more than 5 years ago, all stances were ready to be sold, and the money of Al Saud and Al Zayed was ready to buy them. They succeeded to mark their missiles, tanks and warships by “morality” and direct them towards a defenseless nation.

The leadership of the aggression alliance achieved what appeared to be the media victory, in the inauguration of its military campaign against Yemen. All voices that had been opposing the war were silent, or silenced.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates tried so hard to conceal their intervention in Yemen using the moral cover in a region which, looking at everyone and everything in it, seems like a slaughterhouse. No matter how much they might try to beautify themselves, they will never seem peaceful. As it proceeded, the war continued to exhaust the capacity of the two states, which everyone thought endless.

As the years went by, Saudi Arabia squandered its affluent treasury, including the wealth and capacities, for the sake of the alliance and the Arab fascist regimes, and it didn’t stop squandering in the fear of a remarkable Yemeni victory that would firstly deprive it from the opportunity of enthroning the heir presumptive; secondly give Yemen the opportunity of looking at historical demands concerning regions that the Yemenis consider to be unfairly taken from them in earlier stages; and most significantly, grant Yemen the ability to demonstrate its powerful model that just beat all the Gulf states.

The Saudi treasury, that today seems to be in miserable conditions, is deepening the woes of Al Saud. Just before the war against Yemen, at the end of 2014, all the external debts owed by the SA were around $12 billion, worth nothing for the world’s richest state.

Only 5 years later, these debts increased by 1400%, according to data from the World Bank, which unmasked a record high in the debts owed by Saudi Arabia that reached $150 billion in 2018, then $183 billion at the end of 2019, and it goes on and on. It is the Yemeni victory, not the defeat of Saudi Arabia that would haunt rulers in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

As the war progressed, the Gulf media failed, in parallel with the military failure, to continue marshalling opinions that convict Yemenis and their armed forces. The available pictures of mass destruction in Yemen shows the scale of the Arab crime, whether by contributing or staying silent. International actors finally started to draw attention by sharing chilling reports about the humanitarian situation in all Yemeni regions. Nothing could be more evident than the UNICEF’s report concerning the disaster, as it says that “Every single hour, a mother and 6 children are killed throughout Yemen, and because of the maritime and airborne barbaric blockades of Yemen by the alliance, health services have completely collapsed, and it is difficult to obtain medical supplies or buy and import medicine and equipment!”

Since the war has been prolonged, it is obviously an end in itself. It uses the importation of arms, in a region that doesn’t fear any external or internal threats, as a large door for commissions and enormous profits. And with the drain of the war, all Gulf people’s properties became under the control of Western arms furnishers. The treason is now completed. On the economic side: the war caused the waste of enormous opportunities in an era where petroleum is missing its decisive influence and its incomes are declining, and on the social side: the abundant arms like a sword hanging over the heads of those who refuse to be loyal to furnishers, or think outside the box to which they are supposed to stick.

Only now, all imaginations that anyone could control Yemen over have become a well-established fact, more than being a future expectation. Today, everyone knows and conceives that the end will not be in Sanaa or Aden; but the beginning of the end will be in Jizan and Najran, and the absolute end will be in Riyadh.

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