مَن يحرص على تجنيب لبنان الحرب: السيد حسن نصرالله أم منتقدوه؟

يوليو 15, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– ظاهرياً يتلبّس منتقدو خطاب السيد حسن نصرالله ثوب الحرص على تجنيب لبنان تداعيات أي تطور دراماتيكي للمواجهة الأميركية الإيرانية، ويعتبرون تهديداته بالدخول على خطها تلميحاً وتصريحاً تعريضاً للبنان للخطر، وتخديماً لمصالح إيرانية على حساب لبنان وأمنه واستقراره. فيقولون، إن اتصالاتهم بالأميركيين ومن خلالها ما يردهم عن نتائج الاتصالات الأميركية بالإسرائيليين، فإن واشنطن وتل أبيب مستعدتان لتحييد لبنان عن أي مواجهة مع إيران إذا استجاب حزب الله لهذه الدعوة بالتحييد، وإن كلام السيد نصرالله وموقفه يسقطان هذه الفرضية ويضعان لبنان في دائرة الاستهداف، ويضيف هؤلاء أنهم نجحوا عبر الاتصال بواشنطن لضمان استعداد أميركي لفتح قناة اتصال مع حزب الله، رغم وجود العقوبات، لكن حزب الله لم يكتفِ بالرفض بل استعمل ذلك للتصعيد بوجه واشنطن.

– ظاهرياً، يبدو هذا الكلام منطقياً، لكن هناك ما هو أهم للكشف عن صدق وطبيعة النيات الأميركية العميقة من مساعي تحييد حزب الله، تكشفها مساعي الوساطة لترسيم حدود لبنان براً وبحراً التي قادها معاون وزير الخارجية الأميركية السابق ديفيد ساترفيلد، الذي تولى حديثاً مهام سفارة بلاده في تركيا، لتقول شيئاً لا علاقة له بما يقوله اللبنانيون الذين يتحدثون عن الحرص على تحييد لبنان من أي مواجهة أميركية إيرانية، ففشل مساعي ساترفيلد بعدما استهلكت وقتاً طويلاً أظهر أن المقصود منها كان تحييد حزب الله عن أي مواجهة إيرانية أميركية، دون أن يطلب من الحزب ذلك، بل بمحاصرته بمناخ لبناني متحفز للحصول على الحقوق اللبنانية من الثروات النفطية، وجعل المستوى الأول في لبنان ينظر بإيجابية للمساعي الأميركية، بحيث لن يتسامح مع أي موقف تصعيدي لحزب الله إذا ما تدهورت الأوضاع على جبهة طهران واشنطن بما يهدّد بالإطاحة بهذه الفرصة اللبنانية الذهبية، لكن التراجع الأميركي المفاجئ بلا مقدّمات عن جهود الوساطة الشكلية، كشف المستور بعدما تيقنت واشنطن من شراكة حزب الله بقرار واعٍ وواضح في أي مواجهة بينها وبين إيران بحسابات تعرف أنها لن تستطيع تغييرها.

– لدى حزب الله مقاربة مخالفة كلياً لما سبق، وهو يعتبر أن كلام السيد حسن نصرالله ترجمة لهذه المقاربة بكل حساباتها وتفاصيلها. فخطة تحييد حزب الله، هي خطة الحرب، وليست خطة الخروج منها وفقاً لرؤية الحزب، والفشل بتحييد حزب الله يعني سقوط خيار الحرب، لأن واشنطن لن تشنّ حرباً على إيران تعرّض أمن «إسرائيل» للاهتزاز، لكنها إذا نجحت بالفوز في الحرب على إيران، بعد النجاح في تحييد حزب الله، وبالتالي ضمان أمن «إسرائيل» أثناء الحرب على إيران، فلن تتردد بالارتداد نحو حزب الله لتدفيعه ثمن انتصاراته على «إسرائيل» وتغيير معادلات الردع التي بناها بوجه القوة الإسرائيلية، بعدما تكون إيران قد هُزمت وتمّ تغيير المناخ المعنوي والنفسي والمادي لظروف خوض الحرب على حزب الله، فيصير تحييد حزب الله وعبره لبنان مجرد تكتيك حربي مؤقت لجدول أعمال الحرب لا يقع في حبائله ولا يصدّقه إلا الأغبياء، الذين يربأ حزب الله بنفسه وباللبنانيين أن يُحسَبوا من ضمنهم.

– في حسابات حزب الله، معادلة واضحة لقوانين الحرب والسلم في المنطقة عنوانها، أن أمن «إسرائيل» هو الذي يدفع أميركا لخوض الحروب وهو الذي يجعلها تعيد النظر بخيارات الحروب، وأنه كما في الحرب على سورية، في الحرب على إيران، سؤال الأميركيين الأول، هو هل يرد احتمال أن يقوم حزب الله بتعريض أمن «إسرائيل» للخطر، فإن كان الجواب إيجابياً عدلت واشنطن عن الحرب وإن كان العكس مضت بها وإليها، وفي حسابات حزب الله أن واشنطن التي شكّل التحريض الإسرائيلي أحد الأسباب في حملتها العدائية لإيران نظراً لما للتأثير الإسرائيلي على معادلات القوى الناخبة في واشنطن، ستتأثر بما تتلقاه من الرأي العام الإسرائيلي حول خيار الحرب على إيران، وبالتالي فإن تهديد الأمن الإسرائيلي بأكلاف عائدات الحرب وجعل ذلك قضية الرأي العام الأولى في كيان الاحتلال يتكفّل بجعل التحريض الإسرائيلي لواشنطن معكوساً، فبدلاً من معادلة «اضربوا إيران كمصدر خطر على أمن إسرائيل كي نقف معكم»، يصير «لا تغامروا بأمننا في حرب مع إيران سندفع نحن ثمنها إن كنتم تريدون أن نقف معكم».

– معادلة حزب الله أنه لن يكون محيداً ومعه لبنان إذا قررت واشنطن الحرب على إيران، إلا مؤقتاً ضمن خطة تكتيكية للفوز بالحرب بكل مراحلها، ومنها مرحلة القضاء على حزب الله بعد الفوز بالحرب على إيران، وأن طريق منع الحرب على لبنان يبدأ من منع الحرب على إيران، وطريق ذلك واضح، جعل أمن «إسرائيل» في كفة موازية للحرب على إيران، وهو ما يضمنه التهديد بدخول حزب الله على خط الحرب، الذي يضمن على الأقل وبكل تأكيد تحفيز الرأي العام الإسرائيلي لرفض المغامرة بالحرب، فعدم الحياد من الحرب هو طريق تحييد لبنان من الخطر.

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«Israeli» Army: A Hezbollah Fighter Is Equal to A Tank جيش العدو: مقاتل حزب الله يساوي دبابة

By Ali Haidar – Al-Akhbar Newspaper

13 years after the 2006 war, which sought to crush Hezbollah and establish a new Middle East, the Chief of Staff of the “Israeli” army Aviv Kochavi held a session for the general staff on January 16 of this year. During the session, he displayed graphics about the “serious transformation process” Hezbollah has undergone [along with Hamas in the Gaza Strip] from being a militia to a “terrorist army” [not in an organizational sense but at the level of capabilities].

Image result for aviv kochavi

The chief of staff stressed that the “qualitative gap” between this “army” and the “Israeli” army is shrinking, and that Hezbollah [along with the Palestinian resistance factions] continues to develop and exploit its relative superiority in camouflaging and [hiding] underground as well as building its offensive force. It is also improving the quantity of its missiles and their precision while employing relatively new means of combat such as drones.

The content of this report summarizes the nature of the outcomes of the 2006 war and reveals the scale of the transformation to the equations of conflict. Most notable among them is that it laid the groundwork for the crystallization of a regional resistance force whose features are more evident today. Kochavi’s choice of words confirms the “Israeli” security establishment’s official reading of the extent of the challenge posed by the party [Hezbollah] in the face of “Israeli” ambitions in Lebanon and the wider region.

Calling Hezbollah an army is no longer just the work of a professional journalist in Tel Aviv or an estimate of an expert [regardless of whether the party adopts it]. It was proclaimed by the current chief of staff of the army. This reveals the magnitude of the challenge Hezbollah poses in the consciousness of the military decision makers as well as the political establishment in “Israel”.

This official assessment includes two dimensions: first, it reveals the magnitude of “Israel’s” defeat in the 2006 war [because its outcome was not limited to its failure in achieving its objectives, but Hezbollah imposed its will and achieved many of its objectives related to the next phase].

Second, it reveals the “Israeli” security establishment’s recognition of the strategic threat that Hezbollah has become. All this explains the senior leadership’s hesitation to embark on a direct military confrontation with Hezbollah over the years that followed. In the words of [Eliyahu] Winograd, a few thousand fighters during the 2006 war became an army that threatened the strategic depth of the “Israeli” entity with the ability to defend and attack as well.

What aggravates the problem for “Israel” and what Kochavi acknowledges is that Hezbollah is reducing the qualitative gap between itself and the developing “Israeli” army, raising the level of danger among military commanders. As for the political decision-makers, it has weakened their confidence in their choices and readiness to pursue objectives in any perceived war by “Israel”.

This danger in the “Israeli” conscience also stems from the fact that Hezbollah was able to achieve all these victories even before it came to possess these kinds of advanced capabilities and despite the fact that “Israel” has been and still is the most developed army, capable of destruction at all levels.

A senior military officer explained the race between Hezbollah’s defensive preparedness and the “Israeli” army’s aggressive preparedness in one of his lectures a few years back. He said the good news in the development of the level of preparedness is that the “Israeli” army is able to achieve in four days what took 33 days in the 2006 war. But he added that the bad news is that Hezbollah is also able to hit in four days what it hit in 33 days.

What is brilliant in this course is that the enemy’s army realized that Hezbollah did not fall into the trap of becoming a regular army. The resistance movement, however, employed the strategic capabilities in accordance with the tactic of guerrilla warfare. Thus, producing an unprecedented formula, which allowed it to succeed in confronting an army possessing the latest military and technological capabilities. This took away the resolve of the “Israelis’” and gave Hezbollah the element of survival and ability to continue fighting.

Kochavi pointed out the aforementioned by stating that the party “continues to exploit its relative superiority in camouflaging… and [hiding] underground”. This is in reference to the superiority of this tactic by which Hezbollah can contain the effects of the enemy’s military superiority in terms of intensity, speed, destruction and accuracy.

The party’s ingenuity, which is ever-present in the minds of the enemy’s leaders and experts, covered all areas. However, the most prominent these days is the sharp debate at all levels about whether the “Israeli” army possesses the readiness to fight a ground battle. This debate among senior experts and related institutions reveals the extent of concern over the issue of Hezbollah’s development and readiness to face the “Israeli” ground forces.

As a result, “Israel” is witnessing a continuing debate about the ability of its ground forces to be decisive in case of an incursion into Lebanese territory. It is striking that those who oppose this option directly acknowledge that Hezbollah is capable of confronting “Israeli” armored vehicles by relying on its fighters.

Image result for Major General Amir Eshel

In this regard, the former commander of the “Israeli” Air Force, Major General Amir Eshel, explained during the Herzliya conference a few days ago that the fighter is doing what the tank used to do in the past. He pointed out that even if a military squad penetrated deep into Lebanese territory, when it reaches the friction zone, Hezbollah fighters would emerge from the tunnels or behind them. This will lead to the crystallization of an equal field reality, which is very, very complicated!

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جيش العدو: مقاتل حزب الله يساوي دبابة

علي حيدر

الجمعة 12 تموز 2019

جيش العدو: مقاتل حزب الله يساوي دبابة

بعد 13 عاماً على حرب عام 2006 التي هدفت إلى سحق حزب الله وإقامة شرق أوسط جديد، عقد رئيس أركان جيش العدو أفيف كوخافي، جلسة لهيئة أركان الجيش في 16/1/2019، عرض فيها «غرافيكس» تشير إلى «عملية تحوّل خطيرة» يمرّ بها حزب الله (ومعه حركة حماس في قطاع غزة)، من ميليشيا إلى «جيش إرهابي» (ليس بالمعنى التنظيمي، بل على مستوى القدرات). رئيس الأركان شدد على أن «الفجوة النوعية» بين هذا «الجيش» والجيش الإسرائيلي تتقلص، وأن حزب الله (ومعه فصائل المقاومة الفلسطينية) يواصل التطور واستغلال تفوقه النسبي في التخفي وتحت الأرض، ويبني قوة هجومية ويحسِّن كمية صواريخه ودقّتها، ويُدخل إلى الخدمة وسائل قتالية جديدة نسبياً مثل المحلّقات والطائرات المسيّرة وغيرها.

يختصر مضمون هذا التقرير حقيقة نتائج حرب عام 2006، ويكشف عن حجم التحول الذي أحدثته في معادلات الصراع، وأبرزها أنها أسست لبلورة قوة مقاومة إقليمية باتت معالمها أكثر جلاءً اليوم. وتؤكد مفردات كوخافي القراءة الرسمية للمؤسسة الأمنية الإسرائيلية لحجم التحدي الذي يمثله الحزب في مواجهة الأطماع الإسرائيلية في لبنان والمنطقة.

لم يعد وصف حزب الله بالجيش مجرد اجتهاد صحافي مختص في تل أبيب، أو تقدير لأحد الخبراء (بغضّ النظر عمّا إذا كان الحزب يتبناه)، بل صدر على لسان رئيس الأركان الحالي للجيش. وهو ما يكشف عن حجم التحدي الذي يمثله حزب الله في وعي صناع القرار الأمني، ومن ورائهم المؤسسة السياسية في إسرائيل. وينطوي هذا التقويم الرسمي على بعدين: الأول أنه يكشف عن حجم الهزيمة التي تلقتها إسرائيل في حرب 2006 (لأن نتيجتها لم تقتصر فقط على فشلها في تحقيق أهدافها، بل إن حزب الله فرض إرادته وحقق كثيراً من أهدافه ذات الصلة في المرحلة التي تلت وبالاستناد إلى ما حققه من انتصار في تلك الحرب).

والثاني، أنه يكشف عن إدراك المؤسسة الإسرائيلية الأمنية للتهديد الاستراتيجي الذي أصبح يشكله حزب الله. ويفسّر كل هذا التردد لدى القيادة العليا في اتخاذ قرار بخوض مواجهة عسكرية مباشرة معه طوال السنوات التي تلت. فمَن كان بضعة آلاف من المقاتلين خلال حرب 2006، بحسب تعبير فينوغراد، أصبح جيشاً يهدد العمق الاستراتيجي للكيان الإسرائيلي، ويملك القدرة على الدفاع والهجوم أيضاً.

ما يفاقم المشكلة بالنسبة إلى إسرائيل، أن حزب الله، باعتراف كوخافي، يقلص الفجوة النوعية في مقابل تطور الجيش الإسرائيلي، وهو ما رفع مستوى الخطورة في وعي القادة العسكريين. وبالنسبة إلى صناع القرار السياسي، أضعف ثقتهم بكون خياراتهم وجاهزيتهم قادرة على تحقيق المؤمَّل من أي حرب مفترضة قد تشنها إسرائيل.

تنبع هذه الخطورة أيضاً، في الوعي الإسرائيلي، من حقيقة أن حزب الله استطاع أن يحقق كل هذه الانتصارات في مواجهة إسرائيل، ومن قبل أن يملك هذا المستوى من القدرات المتطورة، رغم أن إسرائيل كانت ولا تزال الأكثر تطوراً وقدرة على التدمير في كافة المستويات. وأبرز من اختصر سباق الجاهزية الدفاعية لحزب الله، والجاهزية العدوانية للجيش الإسرائيلي، أحد كبار ضباط المؤسسة العسكرية، الذي أوضح في محاضرة له قبل سنوات، أن الخبر الجيد في تطور الجاهزية، هو أن الجيش الإسرائيلي بات قادراً في أربعة أيام على ضرب ما احتاج إلى 33 يوماً في حرب عام 2006. لكنه يُضيف أن الخبر السيئ هو أن حزب الله بات قادراً أيضاً على أن يضرب في أربعة أيام ما قام به في 33 يوماً.

حزب الله بات قادراً على أن يضرب في أربعة أيام ما ضربه في 33 يوماً

ذروة التألق في هذا المسار أن جيش العدو أدرك أن حزب الله لم يقع في فخ التحول إلى جيش نظامي، بل طوَّع القدرات الاستراتيجية وفق تكتيك حرب العصابات، فأنتج صيغة غير مسبوقة نجح في ضوئها بمواجهة جيش يمتلك أحدث القدرات العسكرية والتكنولوجية، فسلب الإسرائيلي القدرة على الحسم ومنح حزب الله عنصري البقاء واستمرار النيران. وهو ما أشار إليه كوخافي أيضاً بالقول إن الحزب «يواصل استغلال تفوقه النسبي في التخفي… وتحت الأرض»، في إشارة إلى ما يوفره هذا التكتيك من تفوق يستطيع من خلاله حزب الله احتواء مفاعيل التفوق الناري لجيش العدو، كثافة وسرعة وتدميراً ودقة.

مع أن إبداعات الحزب، التي حضرت لدى قادة العدو وخبرائه، شملت كافة المجالات، إلا أن أكثرها حضوراً في هذه الأيام، هو السجال الحاد على كافة المستويات حول ما إذا كان الجيش الإسرائيلي يتمتع بالجاهزية لخوض معركة برية في مواجهة. يكشف هذا السجال والمديات التي بلغها بين كبار الخبراء وداخل المؤسسات ذات الصلة، عن حضور حجم تطور جهوزية الحزب لمواجهة سلاح البر الإسرائيلي. نتيجة ذلك، تشهد إسرائيل سجالاً متواصلاً حول قدرة سلاح البر على الحسم في حال اقتحام الأراضي اللبنانية. واللافت أن من يعارضون هذا الخيار، يقرّون مباشرة بأن حزب الله قادر من خلال الاعتماد على مقاتليه على مواجهة سلاح المدرعات الإسرائيلي. وفي هذا المجال أوضح قائد سلاح الجو الإسرائيلي السابق اللواء أمير إيشل، خلال مؤتمر هرتسيليا قبل أيام، أن المقاتل بات يقوم بما كانت تقوم به الدبابة في السابق. ولفت إلى أنه حتى لو توغلت فرقة عسكرية إلى عمق الأراضي اللبنانية، فإنها عندما ستصل إلى منطقة الاحتكاك سيخرج إليها (مقاتلو حزب الله) من الأنفاق ومن خلفها وما شاكل، وهو ما سيؤدي إلى تبلور واقع ميداني متساوٍ، وهو أمر معقد جداً جداً!

Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory: I Have Big Hope that We Will Pray in Al-Quds! -UPDATED

July 13, 2019

Marwa Haidar

Stressing that the nation is witnessing the era of victories, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah voiced confidence that the resistance will deal the Zionist entity a terrible defeat in the future war, voicing big hope that he will be one of those who will pray in Al-Quds.

In an exclusive interview with Al-Manar, Sayyed Nasrallah called on Israeli officials no to boast over their saying that the Zionist forces will “return Lebanon to Stone Age”.

On the thirteenth anniversary of July war in 2006, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the resistance today is more powerful than before; presenting its developed capabilities which he said will bring the Zionist entity to the “verge of vanishing”.Image result for Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory:

Reiterating his well-known saying that ‘Israel’ is weaker than a spider web, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the Israeli enemy has failed to rebuild trust in its military capabilities, stressing that the Israeli commanders fear the resistance and don’t dare to start a war with Lebanon.

In a move that raised eyebrows upon the Zionist entity, Sayyed Nasrallah presented a map of occupied Palestine. The map showed dozens of Israeli targets to be hit by Hezbollah in any future war.

His eminence stressed that the Israeli coast which includes many strategic sites is under Hezbollah’s fire.

“Hezbollah at minimum is capable of inflicting huge destruction upon the Zionist entity.”

Sayyed Nasrallah meanwhile, said that Hezbollah fighters have become expert and well-prepared for the invasion of Galilee, noting that the resistance leadership has prepared several scenarios for such move.

On the other hand, he described as failed the summit which took place in Bahrain last month, stressing that the US President Donald Trump’s so-called ‘deal of the century’ is doomed to failure.

In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah noted that the Palestinian refugees reject to cede their land or to be naturalized.

Concerning the Lebanese borders demarcation, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the issue is the responsibility of the Lebanese state, voicing support to the government in such battle with the Zionist entity.

His eminence described what happened in Syria up till now as a great victory, noting that the Syrian state is recovering, but noting that there are other issues that are still not solved.

On Hezbollah presence in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the resistance movement has reduced its troop presence, noting that redeployment can be made when needed.

Hezbollah S.G. ruled out confrontation between Iran and the US, noting that Washington knows very well that the war with the Islamic Republic costs highly.

Sayyed Nasrallah also warned that such a war between Iran and the US will have dangerous repercussion on the entire region, including Saudi Arabia, UAE and the Zionist entity.

His eminence meanwhile, revealed that Ansarullah revolutionary movement processes missiles that can reach the entire Saudi and Emirati territories, but noted that the Yemeni group only wants the war to stop.

On the Lebanese local developments, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated Hezbollah’s call for calm, referring to the shooting which targeted the convoy of a Lebanese minister in Mount Lebanon earlier this month.

Sayyed Nasrallah also said that Hezbollah will go ahead with counter-corruption campaign.

His eminence stressed meanwhile, that in face of US sanctions and blacklisting of Hezbollah lawmakers and officials, the resistance’s only choice is steadfastness.

‘Deterrence Balance’

Sayyed Nasrallah started the interview by congratulating al those who contributed to the divine victory “on top of which are the martyrs’ families, the injured and all the elements of the golden tripartite: the army, the resistance and the people.”Image result for Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory:

His eminence said that deterrence equations set by the resistance with the Zionist entity since July war in 2006 have been consolidated, stressing that the “security which we witness in Lebanon nowadays is made by the Lebanese people themselves, thanks to their unity.”

Sayyed Nasrallah said that throughout 13 years and despite all pressures on the resistance, Hezbollah managed to develop its capabilities in all means.

“We have game-changing offensive weapons, along with human capabilities represented by Radwan Force and Al-Abbas Brigades (elite forces).”

“Our weapons have been developed in both quality and quantity, we have precision missiles and drones,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, stressing that Israeli commanders fear such capabilities.

The resistance leader did not give a clear answer if Hezbollah has anti-aircraft missiles.

“Who said we have (such weapon) and who said we don’t have, in this regard we adopt policy based on constructive ambiguity.”

‘Vulnerable Israeli Home Front’

Talking about the Israeli weak points, Sayyed Nasrallah said that Israeli commanders failed to find solution to the issue of its home front’s vulnerability.

“This front was detached from any war. However, July war took the battle into the Israeli home front. The resistance is more capable today to target and inflict losses upon the Israeli home front.”

All the Israeli attempts to rebuild trust in the Israeli home front have failed, Sayed Nasrallah said, noting that the Israeli military had staged in the latest years so many drill.

“But the Israeli enemy acknowledges that its human capabilities have deteriorated, and all know that the Israeli air force can’t make it alone in any war.”

His eminence referred to the Israeli threat of ‘returning Lebanon to the Stone Age’.

“I advise Israeli commanders to avoid war rhetoric since such rhetoric underestimates Lebanon.”

In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated his well-known saying which he announced in the southern town of Bint Jbeil in 2000: ‘Israel’ is weaker than a spider web.’

“Today I’m a firmer believer of this saying,” Sayyed Nasrallah stressed.

The Map

Image result for Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory:

Answering a question about the Israeli targets which would be hit in any coming war, Sayyed Nasrallah held a map showing the occupied Palestinian territories.السيد نصر الله: اي حرب جديدة ستضع اسرائيل على حافة الزوال

“The entire ‘Israeli’ north is under the resistance’s fire and the most strategic area is the ‘Israeli’ coast,” he said.

“The 70‐km long ‘Israeli’ coast starting from Netanya and ending by Ashdod is under the resistance fire, this area includes the most strategic Israeli sites (Ben Gurion airport, arms depots, petrochemical plants, Tel Aviv and Ashdod ports),” he elaborated.

In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that the Israeli enemy today doesn’t dare to carry out any strike against Lebanon.

“Hezbollah at minimum is capable to inflict huge destruction on the Zionist entity. Our fighters have become expert and well-prepared for the invasion of Galilee, we have several scenarios in this regards.

On the other hand Sayyed Nasrallah ruled out a war with the Zionist entity in the near future: “Such war will put the Israelis on the verge of vanishing.”

‘We’ll Pray in Al-Quds’

Asked if he is confident of the victory in any upcoming war with the Zionist entity, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “I’m certain of the victory, God is with us.”

Marmal Asked Sayyed Nasrallah if he believes that liberation of Palestine will be achieved by his generation, his children’s generation or by grandchildren’s generation

Answering this question Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The ages are in the hand of Allah, but based on logic, I have big hope that we will pray in Al-Quds.”

‘Deal of the Century’

Noting that the Zionist entity relies on Western support and Arab states’ collaboration, Sayyed Nasrallah said the ‘deal of the century’ is doomed to failure since it lacks factors of success

“The US has fired the last bullet at the ‘deal of the century’ by recognizing Al-Quds as the Israeli capital.”

“They (US and allies) won’t achieve their goals because of the united Palestinian stance towards the ‘deal of the century’, Iran’s support and Syria’s victory.”

In this regard, Sayyed Nasrallah noted that no Arab state can bear the repercussions of the ‘deal of the century since the deal means the explicit abandoning of the nation’s holy sites. He also cited media reports which said that quoted Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner’s acknowledgment that the Bahrain summit had failed.

He pointed to huge pressures exerted by the US administration on the Palestinians over the ‘deal of the century’.

Regarding settling the Palestinian refugees, Sayyed Nasrallah said the issue “is neither related to Trump nor to Kushner, it’s related to the countries which are hosting the refugees.”

“Palestinian refugees in Lebanon refuse ceding their land as well as their settling.”

Border Demarcation

On the issue of demarcation of Lebanese land and maritime borders, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that Hezbollah stands after the Lebanese government and its role is only supportive, pointing to the big role of Speaker Nabih Berri in this regard.

Related imageHis eminence noted that the talks on border demarcation are obstructed because the Zionist entity refuses Lebanese government’s insistence that the negotiation should be under the auspices of the United and the Nations and that the US takes the mediator role.

“If the talks are under the auspices of the US and not the UN, then Washington will exert all its efforts to meet the Israeli demands,” Sayyed Nasrallah warned.

His eminence also stressed the importance of discussing the land border in parallel with the issue of maritime border, noting that Speaker Berri insists on relating the two issues.

“When it comes to our Lebanese land we say this is our territory and the Israeli enemy won’t dare to get into it.”

‘Syria Victory’

Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that what has happened in Syria “is a great victory for the Axis of Resistance and a terrible defeat for the other camp.”

He said that the Syrian state is recovering, but noted that there have been some stalling issues including Idlib and east of Euphrates River along with the political settlement.

He noted that the Syrian government hasn’t requested Hezbollah’s engagement in the battle taking place in Idlib.

On the relation with Russia regarding the presence in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said the the Lebanese resistance movement deals with Russia as a friend, but stressed that the coordination only takes place with the Syrian defense ministry.

Answering a question on Hezbollah’s military presence in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the resistance has reduced its troop presence in the war-torn country, noting that “when it’s needed” Hezbollah can make some redeployment there.

Commenting on reports on Iran’s withdrawal from Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said such move is not in Russia’s interest.

Hezbollah S.G. meanwhile, said that the Zionist entity always carries out strikes in Syria; noting that the latest attack was similar to others which targeted non-strategic targets.

However, Sayyed Nasrallah warned the Israeli enemy of taking risk by striking Syria. He addressed Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu as saying: “Do whatever you want… Iran won’t withdraw from Syria.”

Meanwhile, his eminence revealed that regular meetings always take place with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.

“I always meet President Bashar Al-Assad but I don’t say the time of such meetings due to security reasons.”

On the other hand, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated a previous threat that if any member of Hezbollah is killed in Syria, the resistance will retaliate in Lebanon.

“This equation is still working.”

Noting that the situation will change when the S-300 missiles will become operational in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah warned the Israeli enemy against “playing with the verge of abyss.”

“If the Israeli enemy carries out an unbearable strike in Syria, the Syrian leadership then may have other calculations.”

US, Iran Standoff

Stressing that Iran will not start a war with the US, Sayyed Nasrallah ruled out a similar move by Washington, saying that the White House knows very well that such move has a high cost.

Sayyed Nasrallah noted here that Trump relies on economic pressure on Iran.

However, Hezbollah S.G. did not rule out that events may escalate between the two sides, noting meanwhile that both Iran and the US will work to contain any escalation.

Referring to Iran’s downing of US spy drone, Sayyed Nasrallah dismissed Trump’s allegations that he stopped Iran strike after he was told that such strike would kill 150 people.

His eminence revealed that what really stopped the US strike on Iran is a message delivered from Tehran to the US through a third party.

“The message said that if the US strikes any Iranian target, Iran will hit US targets,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.

Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah said that Iran won’t stage direct talks with the US, noting that this issue is agreed upon by all Iranian officials.

He said that the Iranians are open to all international efforts aimed at finding solution to the nuclear issue, but that Tehran insists that the US has to lift sanctions first.

On the possibility of having dialogue between Iran and regional countries, Sayyed Nasrallah said this move is interest of the entire region, and that the Islamic Republic ready to such step.

Asked about Hezbollah’s stance of dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Sayyed Nasrallah said that although Lebanon was hurt by the Saudis, we don’t reject such move.

“Even the Yemenis, who have been for years crushed by the Saudis, don’t reject dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Just one side fully rejects this step: Netanyahu.”

Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah warned that if a war breaks out between Iran and the US, then no country will be safe.

“Any state that will participate in the war on Iran will pay high price,” Sayyed Nasrallah threatened, referring to the Zionist entity, Saudi Arabia and UAE, noting that the Axis of Resistance won’t keep mum in case of war.

Yemen

Sayyed Nasrallah said that Yemeni revolutionary forces are capable of widening the targeted area by their drone and missile attacks.

“Yemenis can hit any target across Saudi Arabia and UAE, but they don’t want escalation. All what they want is for this war to stop.”

Local Politics

Commenting on the shooting which targeted the convoy of minister Saleh al-Gharib earlier this month, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that Hezbollah seeks de-escalation, lashing out at those who accuse Hezbollah of seeking discord within Druze.

“The incident was grave, and we were part of the de-escalation attempts. Accusations that Hezbollah seeks discord within Druze sect are immoral.”

“Local stability serves our interest. It’s normal to stand by our ally,” referring to Head of Druze Lebanese Democratic Party, Tal Arslan, whom minister Al-Gharib belongs to his party.

Al-Gharib’s two bodyguards were killed during the shooting which took place in Mount Lebanon on June 30.

On the relation between Hezbollah and the Head of Druze Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Walid Jumblatt, Sayyed Nasrallah said the dispute between the two sides is great since 2005.

Sayyed Nasrallah elaborated on the disputed issues between Hezbollah and the PSP, stressing that Jumblatt’s remarks that Shebaa Farms are not Lebanese is fault.

Hezbollah S.G. meanwhile, stressed that the relation with President Michel Aoun and Free Patriotic Movement’s Head MP Gibran Bassil is excellent.

Commenting on US’ move to put Hezbollah MPs, Mohammad Raad Amin Sherri, along with Hezbollah senior official, Wafiq Safa, on sanctions blacklist, Sayyed Nasrallah said that Hezbollah officials congratulate such moves when they take place.

His eminence dismissed US envoy to Iran, Brian Hook’s remarks that sanctions on Iran have been putting pressure on Hezbollah.

“The sanctions have impact yes, but we are people of “Humiliation… Never” and we have several options to deal with the issue.”

Sayyed Nasrallah then praised resistance sacrifices, saying: “The resistance by a small number of martyrs is making honorable life for a whole nation.”

Addressing the resistance crowds who have been tweeting and posting on social media ahead of the interview, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “I love you and I feel proud of you.”

His eminence then concluded the interview by stressing that “the era of victory has come!”

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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Sayyed Nasrallah: Trump Seeks to Open Channels with Hezbollah, “Israel” Could be Wiped in Any Regional War

Zeinab Essa

Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah advised the “Israeli” leaders not to talk any more about returning Lebanon to the Stone Age.

In a Friday interview with Al-Manar channel, Sayyed Nasrallah congratulated the Lebanese celebrating 13 years on the Divine Victory, the 2006 July war with “Israel”.

Hezbollah Surprises to “Israel”

To the “Israelis”, His Eminence sent a clear message: “In the next war with “Israel” we will have surprises in land, air and sea.”

“The resistance is able attack the whole “Israeli” entity, reaching Eilat,” he  reiterated, noting that he is  “confident of victory” and that ““Israel” is weaker than spider-web.”

Sayyed Nasrallah further stated: “Since 2006, Lebanon has been living in a state of security that the Lebanese have created by their unity.”

“The resistance is stronger than ever,” His Eminence declared, explaining:  “In 2006, our offensive capability was limited, but today we have an offensive force at the infantry level armed with qualitative weapons.”

As His Eminence moved to unveil some of the Islamic Resistance capabilities, he sent a clear message to “Israel’s” military, leaders and settlers. “The Zionist entity would be brought to the verge of vanishing, and it knows this.”

“We have a number of missiles larger than 2006 and we have precise missiles that we did not have in 2006. We also have a large and powerful branch of UAVs,” Sayyed Nasrallah unveiled,

Presenting a map of occupied Palestinian territories, Sayyed Nasrallah uncovered some potential targets in any coming war. “The resistance is able to target the entire coastal strip area with a depth of 20 km and a length of 60 to 70 km in which there are government centers, nuclear plants and ports,” he announced.

Sayyed Nasrallah also asked: “Can the “Israeli” entity survive or endure our capabilities?”

According to the Resistance leader, “The Zionists said that if the tanks of ammonia were hit in Haifa, the number of casualties is very large.”

“The “Israeli” will refrain from launching a raid on Lebanon because he is afraid of the resistance,” he viewed, noting that “the resistance is capable of bringing “Israel” back to the Stone Age by destroying the area that is under the range of our missiles.”

On the same level, the Resistance Leader predicted that “any war will be bigger than the 2006 war for “Israel” and it will put it on the brink of extinction.”

In parallel, His Eminence reiterated that “the invasion of Galilee is part of the war plan.”

Moreover, he highlighted that “due to the state of deterrence, it is ruled out that the “Israeli” will initiate a war.”

Answering a question on the effect of his death on Hezbollah, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The resistance is not limited to a person; it works as an institution and every person has an influence.”

Praying At Al-Aqsa

On the same level, the Resistance Leader highlighted that  “Life and death are in the hands of God,” noting that “yet logic points to me that I will personally pray at Al-Aqsa mosque.”

Expressing confidence of Hezbollah’s ability to “achieve victory in any coming confrontation,” Sayyed Nasrallah shed light on some “Israeli” failures.

“The confidence of the army leaders in their forces and the military leadership in the their political leadership and vice versa is missing,” he emphasized, declaring that Hezbollah has an infantry force that possesses special capabilities.

Back to 2006, His Eminence explained that “The July war transferred the battle to the enemy’s territory,” stressing that “ Today, the resistance is stronger than any other time in its ability to target the enemy’s home front.”

“The “Israeli” admits that there is significant decline in the strength and power of their ground forces,” he confirmed, reminding that “ the confidence crisis within the enemy as a result of Gaza failure has deepened.”

Once again, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The resistance is stronger than ever despite the sanctions and it improved its capabilities greatly over the past 13 years, and this has been acknowledged by the “Israelis”.”

“The “Israeli” talk about returning Lebanon to the Stone Age is a mockery and underestimation of Lebanon,” reminding that Hezbollah  can target entire “Israel” with its firepower

To the friend and enemy, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Message was clear: “I am convinced that “Israel” is weaker than a spider’s web and I have scientific evidence to that.”

On the importance of the resistance media, he stressed that “it is very influential in making results and events.”

Deal of Century will Fail

Moving to another title,  Sayyed Nasrallah expected that “the “deal of the century” will fail.”

“One of the most important elements of the deal of the century’s failure is Al-Quds,” he added, noting that “The global arrogance fired a bullet of mercy on the deal of the century when it considered that Occupied Al-Quds is the capital of the occupying entity.”

Moreover, His Eminence hailed “both the unity of the Palestinian position and the steadfastness of Iran that formed important factors in front of the deal of the century’s implementation.”

“There is not a single Palestinian who will agree to a deal in which the Christian and Muslim holy sites of al-Quds will be transferred to Israel,” Sayyed Nasrallah stated.

“The martyrs who fell in Syria and the victory in Iraq are from the factors that prevent the implementation of the deal of the century,” he said, pointing out that “the Yemeni sacrifices and the strength of the resistance axis are among the main reasons for not implementing the deal of the century.”

In addition, Sayyed Nasrallah viewed that “the absence of a strong Arab state capable of carrying the deal of the century on its back prevents from its implementation.”

Demacratation and More

On a similar note, he was clear enough: “No one can impose naturalization on Lebanon if there is Lebanese consensus against it.”

Commenting the talk of demarcation between Lebanon and the apartheid “Israeli” entity, Sayyed Nasrallah cautioned that “If the sponsor of the demarcation negotiations is the American, forget about it.”

“The term of land demarcation is wrong because demarcating is already done,” he explained, noting that “Our land borders are demarcated and there is a technical dispute on some meters.”

He further highlighted that “Lebanese House Speaker Nabih Berri insists that land and sea demarcation coincide starting from Naqoura because it clarifies maritime borders.”

“If we define our maritime borders, the occupying entity will not dare to breach them,” His Eminence vowed, noting that “Lebanon is not weak, but some Lebanese are weak.”

According to him, “There is no logic in discussing maritime borders without settling the land borders. There are oil companies that are ready to work in the areas determined by Lebanon within its territory.”

Presence in Syria

On the Syrian front, Sayyed Nasrallah announced that his party has “redeployed and downsized our forces in Syria due to the improved security situation.”

He also clarified that “decreasing our numbers in Syria has nothing to do with American sanctions and we’re ready to return in large numbers if needed,” noting that Hezbollah hasn’t evacuated complete areas in Syria and we are still in all the areas where we were.

“The time has not come for Hezbollah’s full withdrawal from Syria,” he added, pointing out that “The party we are coordinating with in Syria is the Syrian military leadership, not the Russian one.”

Commenting on the recent “Israeli” strikes on Syria, His Eminence stressed that “it hasn’t targeted against important places. The result of the “Israeli” bombardment of Syria is “nothing” in military logic.”

“I do not think there is a return in Syria, and there is still the issue of East Euphrates and Idlib only,” His Eminence stressed, pointing out that “if something new emerged, we can easily transfer troops from Lebanon to Syria.”

Praising the fact that “there is a great coordination between the Russian and the Iranian in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah warned that ““Israel’s” strikes will not lead to expelling Iran from Syria and they are risky for “Israel”.”

“Iran will not withdraw from Syria,” he clearly stated, noting that “the equation of responding to “Israel” if it targeted any Hezbollah element in Syria is still valid.”

Sayyed Nasrallah further explained some aspects of the Syrian refrain from responding to “Israel”, “The priority in Syria is to confront armed groups and Syria is facing “Israeli” aggression through air defenses.”

Meanwhile, he urged the Russians “to prevent the Zionist air force from targeting Syria.”

“The Syrians are training on the S300 and when they are ready to use it, the situation will be different,” His Eminence elaborated, uncovering that “[President Bashar] Al-Assad and I always meet, but won’t reveal any dates due to security.”

Sayyed Nasrallah also said: “[Our] growth in human numbers has been very large. Our numbers have doubled and there was development also out in the field, especially inside Syria. The ground forces are trained at a high level.”

Trump Wants to Talk to Us

Uncovering that Trump’s administration is seeking to open channels of communication with Hezbollah, he highlighted that “Trump’s administration has designated 3rd parties to reach out to Hezbollah in Lebanon and is dying for Iran to negotiate with him. It won’t happen.”

US-Iran, and The Talk of War

Ruling out that America might launch a war on Iran, Sayyed Nasrallah commented on the latest escalation between Iran and the US: “Strikes and counter-strikes might happen, but the two parties will seek to contain the situation.”

“I rule out that America heads to war against Iran and America knows that the war is expensive,” he said, pointing out that “the Iranians sent a message via a third nation on the day the drone was downed, saying they would retaliate against US targets in the event of a US strike. The Iranian message arrived shortly before Trump’s decision, and the latter’s position was to “stop the response”.”

However, His Eminence reiterated that “Iran will not negotiate with America directly and this is the position of all officials in Iran.”

“Who will pay the price for a war on Iran? “Israel” and Al Saud?” he wondered, warning that “Iran will readily bomb “Israel” if war breaks out against it. “Israel” won’t be aside in any coming war. In any war on Iran, the whole region will ignite. “Israel” might even be annihilated.”

Responding to those betting on the sanctions, Sayyed Nasrallah stated: “Iran will not kneel, but these sanctions will push the Iranians to strengthen their domestic production.”

“Iran is now open to any dialogue with Saudi Arabia, but the problem is in the other side, which has settled its options,” he declared, pointing out that  “It is our responsibility in the region to prevent the US war on Iran because everyone agrees that it is destructive. What prevents the US from going to war is that its interests in the entire region are in danger.”

“Is it in the interest of the region to go to a devastating war? Is it in the interest of the UAE to have a devastating war in the Gulf? Certainly they will not accept it. Does the Saudi have an interest in the war as he knows that they will not be able to confront Iran? What will be left of UAE’s glass towers if war breaks out? If the UAE was destroyed when the war broke out, would that be in the interests of the Emirate rulers and people?” His Eminence asked.

Sayyed Nasrallah went on to say that “Any country that will be a partner in the war against Iran or offer its territory to attack Iran will pay the price, noting that “a threat to destroy Saudi Arabia and the UAE cannot deter the US from waging a war on Iran, but rather the threat to attack its forces in the region and “Israel”.”

On the Yemeni front,  the Resistance leader hinted that “Ansarullah can bomb most airports in Saudi Arabia and many facilities in UAE. Ansarullah are escalating gradually. It seems that UAE understands this and is reassessing, but not clear if full or partial withdrawal Yemen. They lost we welcome their re-assessment, and we call on Saudi to do the same.”

On the new US sanctions on Hezbollah, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The new issue in the US sanctions is enlisting two deputies as this is considered an abuse of the parliament.”

“The enemy has two choices: either war, and it’s not capable of it or sanctions, but in return we are more confident ,” he added.

To Continue Fighting Corruption

Moving to the internal arena, Sayyed Nasrallah announced that “Hezbollah will continue the long and difficult battle of corruption on the internal front.”

Meanwhile, he urged calmness after Qabrshmoun incident announcing Hezbollah’s standing by its ally MP Talal Arslan.

“From the very first moments after the Qabrshmoun incident, we started our contacts to pacify the situation,”Sayyed Nasrallah revealed, reiterating that “stability in Lebanon is in our interest.”

In addition, he refused  claims that Hezbollah “wants to blow up the Druze arena” describing them as “immoral.”

Describing Arslan’s call for referring the incident to the Judicial Council as “logical,” Sayyed Nasrallah said “the decision is in our ally’s hand and we stand by him.”

His Eminence further praised Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s wise decision to postpone the latest cabinet session.

“We are against the suspension of the cabinet,” he said.

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Hezbollah Parliamentary Bloc Confronts US Sanctions, Stresses Saudi, ‘Israel’ to Pay Heavily for Any War on Iran

July 11, 2019

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The Loyalty to Resistance parliamentary bloc held Thursday at its headquarters in Haret Hreik its weekly meeting chaired by its head Hajj Mohammad Raad, tackling the latest developments in Lebanon and the region.

In a statement issued after the meeting, Hezbollah bloc considered that the US sanctions on its head MP Hajj Mohammad Raad and member MP Hajj Amin Sherri as well as the party’s security official Wafiq Safa as a persistence on the aggression against the Lebanese, stressing that they may never affect the resistance in face of the Israeli enemy and the terrorist groups.

The statement also reiterated Hezbollah support to the Yemeni people in face of the Saudi ongoing aggression, pointing to the looming victory of the Yemenis whose intensified military operations have pushed the coalition states to start withdrawing from Yemen.

Hezbollah parliamentary bloc further highlighted Iran’s right to increase the Uranium enrichment and back the resistance groups in the region in face of the US policy based on withdrawing from the nuclear deal and tightening sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

In this regard, the statement warned that any US war on Iran would lead the region and the whole would into a major turmoil, stressing that Saudi and the Zionist entity would pay heavily during such a confrontation.

Locally, the Loyalty to Resistance bloc called on the political parties to adopt the reconciliatory approach in coping with the Qabrshmoun incident, highlighting Hezbollah insistence on protecting the poor from any financial pressure that may be exerted by the 2019 state budget law.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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العقوبات الأميركية على نواب حزب الله داخلية أم إقليمية…؟

يوليو 11, 2019

Image result for ‫د. وفيق إبراهيم‬‎

د. وفيق إبراهيم

يتعامل الأميركيون مع حزب الله بخلفية تحالفاته الإقليمية مع السياسات الإيرانية والسورية ودوره الوازن في بعض أنحاء العالم الإسلامي، فيطلقون تدابيرهم المعادية له، لخلخلة وضعه اللبناني والهدف واحد: وهو عرقلة حركته نحو طهران ودمشق وبغداد وصنعاء، كما يقولون.

لذلك كانوا يتجنّبون دائماً مجابهته بشكل عنيف في الداخل اللبناني، لأنّ مواقع حلفائهم المحليين في مجلس الوزراء ومجلس النواب مُصانة.

وهذه من الأسباب العميقة التي كانت تردع الأميركيين من مطالبة تحالفاتهم بوقف التعامل مع نواب الحزب ووزرائه علماً أنّ الأميركيين لم يميّزوا في عقوباتهم السابقة بين جناح مدني أو عسكري في حزب الله، فكلاهما سواسية في الدوائر الأميركية، فاستهدفوهما بالجملة لكنهم لم يتمكّنوا من إلزام حلفائهم في الدولة اللبنانية بتطبيقها، فظلت حبراً كريه الرائحة على ورق مهترئ، بسبب موازنات القوى الداخلية الراجحة للحزب والحلفاء، الذين لم يستعملوها إلا لتسهيل أعمالهم الجهادية في الإقليم تاركين لدماثة الرئيس نبيه بري فنون لجم الاندفاعات غير المحسوبة لحلفاء السعودية.

لكن ما يجري اليوم يختلف عن ذي قبل، فهناك انزعاج أميركي من الدولة اللبنانية كاملة، لسببين اثنين وهما الظاهران وقد تكمن في التفاصيل أسباب أخرى، إنما للزوم أميركي في مراحل أخرى.

هناك في البداية ذلك التعثُر الأميركي في ترسيم الحدود البرية والبحرية بين لبنان والكيان الإسرائيلي المحتل، هنا بالذات فوجئ الأميركيون بموقف موحّد من السلطات اللبنانية الثلاث: التنفيذية في رئاستي الجمهورية والحكومة والتشريعية في المجلس النيابي عبر رئيسه نبيه بري.

يفيد هذا الموقف أنّ لبنان متمسك بكلّ زاوية من برّه وبحره وأجوائه إنما ما تسبّب بإساءة أكبر لواشنطن هو رفض لبنان أيّ مفاوضات مباشرة مع الكيان المحتلّ.

فكيف يمرّ هذا الموقف من بوابة السياسية الأميركية في مرحلة تقول فيها واشنطن إنّ مصر والأردن والسلطة الفلسطينية وقطر والسعودية وعُمان والامارات والبحرين والمغرب، تمتلك علاقات مع «إسرائيل» بأشكال متنوّعة وصولاً الى حدود تأليف أحلاف عسكرية معها، وها هي تونس تستقبل وفوداً سياحية إسرائيلية بجوازات سفر إسرائيلية.

لذلك بوغت الأميركيون بالموقف اللبناني وكانوا يعوّلون على ضغوط من الفريق اللبناني المرتبط بهم وبالسعودية يؤدّي الى تقليص العناء اللبناني، لكن الحريري وحزب المستقبل ووليد جنبلاط وحزبه الاشتراكي وسمير جعجع في حزب القوات صمتوا بخوف، فلم تعادل الآمال الأميركية إمكانات الحلفاء الداخليين الذين أصيبوا بخرسٍ مفاجئ لازمهم في معظم جولات مندوب وزارة الخارجية الأميركية ساترفيلد، وسرعان ما عادت أبواقهم الصوتية الى الصراخ فور رحيله.

لم يحتجّ الأميركيون لوقت طويل ليستوعبوا انّ الموقف اللبناني الصارم يتعامل مع المسألة الحدوديّة بالحجم الإقليمي الذي أصبح عليه حزب الله بعد تراجع المشروع الأميركي الإسرائيلي في سورية في ميادين الحرب، فالحزب أصبح قوة رادعة في الإقليم ولبنان.

ولم يغفلوا أيضاً عن حلفه الداخلي القوي الذي فرض «عبارات وطنية» على كلّ مسألة تتعلق بالعدو الإسرائيلي والمكانة الإقليمية لحزب الله.

لذلك كمن الأميركيون للبناء الجديد على مفترق أحداثه الداخلية، مستوعبين أنّ حزب الله نجح ببناء تحالفات داخلية وازنة لا يُحرجُها حتى في حركته الخارجية، لكن دورها أساسي في ضبط الداخل فقط بما يمنع استعمال لبنان الرسمي من السياسة الأميركية السعودية لتطويق حزب الله.

لم ينتظر الأميركيون طويلاً لمباشرة الضغط على الوضع الداخلي اللبناني مستغلين انزعاج حليفهم الأساسي الوزير السابق وليد جنبلاط وذلك لإقصائه من دائرة النفوذ في الدولة، وهو الشريك المضارب فيها منذ المرحلة الحريرية 1992 ما أدّى الى كمين استهدف موكباً لوزير درزي معارض له وينتمي الى الخط الأرسلاني المنافس، وسقط فيه مرافقون للوزير الغريب ومواكبون له، متسبّباً بانفجار فتنة سياسية، تهرب حكومة الحريري من معالجتها لأنّ الطرف الجنبلاطي الحليف للأميركيين هو المتهم الحصري بها.

يكفي أنّ هذه الفتنة المتفجرة سياسياً تهدّدُ بانفجار الشارع على أسس سياسية وحربية وليست مذهبية او طائفية فقط، لأنّ الوزير جنبلاط وهو العالم بتراجع الدور السعودي الأميركي في لبنان والإقليم يحاول حلّ الازمة اما باعتبارها عملاً فردياً ابن ساعته، ولا دور لحزبه فيه، أيّ ليس مخططاً له، او يدفع البلاد الى احتراب كبير بين فريقي 8 آذار المتحالف مع حزب الله وبين 14 آذار المتحالف مع السياسات الأميركية السعودية، وفي الوقت الذي يحاول فيه اللبنانيون منع نقل الاضطراب السياسي الى الشارع المحترب يُصدر الأميركيون عقوبات جديدة تطال نائبين من حزب الله هما رئيس كتلته النيابية محمد رعد ونائبه عن بيروت أمين شري والمسؤول الأمني في الحزب وفيق صفا.

الهدف هنا واضح. فكلما تقدّمت مساعي المصالحات الداخلية في لبنان رفع الأميركيون اصواتهم مطالبين المجلس النيابي بإقالة النائبين رعد وشري وقد يطالبون الدولة باعتقال وفيق صفا.

ويعتقدون بذلك أنهم يعرقلون الحزب ساحبين منه بعض مصادر إمساكه بالوضع الداخلي، ويعيدون في الوقت نفسه ضخّ كميات جديدة من القوة على جثة 14 آذار لعلها تستفيق من سباتها وتعاود أداء دور الممسك بالسياسة اللبنانية.

لذلك يقدّمُ الأميركيون للبنان خيارين لا ثالث لهما: توفير الأجواء الداخلية لإعادة تعزيز دور الحلف الجنبلاطي الحريري مع جعجع والجميّل وشمعون وعلى قاعدة ممارسة ضغوط على التيار الوطني الحر عبر قوى أوروبية لها عليهم حق «المونة التاريخية».

فهل هذا ممكن؟ المتعمّق في هذه الخطة، لا يميّزها عن أحلام بعض الصغار من أبطال إعلان بعبدا ومصالحة الجبل. فالسياسات وليدة موازنات قوى داخلية أولاً وخارجية ثانياً، فكيف نعيد الروح لقوى تنتقل بسرعة الى المتاحف لتكون عبرة لمن يسير على أضواء الخارج من دون قناديل داخلية تهديه إلى وطنه.

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