سوتشي وجنيف بين عفرين وإدلب

يناير 18, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– كانت عند الدعوة الروسية لمؤتمر سوتشي بموازاة محادثات جنيف أهداف محدّدة، تتصل أوّلاً بعدم حصرية مسار جنيف الذي يعني حصرية تمثيل المعارضة بوفد جماعة الرياض من جهة، وعدم حصرية مرجعية الرعاية الدولية بالشراكة الروسية الأميركية، بل جعلها واحدة من مرجعيات بينها مرجعية رعاة مسار أستانة وخصوصاً الشراكة التركيّة الإيرانية لروسيا، من جهة مقابلة، وعلى الصعيد السياسي كانت هناك المسافة الفاصلة بين سقف جنيف المبهم والغامض وفقاً لخطابات المبعوث الأممي ستيفان دي مستورا، وسقف سوتشي المحدّد بالانتخابات والدستور، وإخراج مستقبل الرئاسة السورية عن طاولة التفاوض.

– اللافت كان أنّ المعارضة لسوتشي لم تكن أميركية بقدر ما كانت تركية، رغم أن سوتشي يمنح تركيا دوراً في الرعاية لا تملكه في جنيف، ويحرم واشنطن دوراً تحظى به في جنيف ولا يعوّضها عنه في سوتشي، ومعلوم أنّ السبب يعود لكون سوتشي يلحظ ما يعوّض الأميركيين أكثر وهو تمثيل الأكراد، بمثل ما يغيظ الأتراك بهذه الدعوة، وبالقدر ذاته كان ستيفان دي ميستورا يعارض سوتشي ويقاتل لاستبعاده ليس دفاعاً عن دوره الحصري فقط بل لفرض سقف سياسي للحوار يترك الباب مفتوحاً للعبث بمستقبل سورية، وذلك ترجمة لتوجيهات ومصالح سعودية حرص دي ميستورا على حمايتها، وكانت جماعة الرياض تفعل الشيء نفسه تفادياً لخسارة هامش المناورة الذي يمثله بقاء مستقبل الرئاسة السورية فوق الطاولة.

– يمكن القول بعد معارك إدلب إنّ تركيا تلقت الصفعة الروسية السورية الإيرانية، التي جعلتها تنفتح على خيار سوتشي، مقترحة المقايضة تحت شعار إدلب مقابل سوتشي، لكن دون أن تلقى آذاناً صاغية، طالما عرضها يحمي معقل النصرة من جهة ويستبعد الأكراد من جهة أخرى، فجاءت الصفعة الأميركية تكمل الصفعة الروسية، بالإعلان عن جيش حدودي بقيادة كردية ودعم أميركي. ورغم الإعلان الروسي المسارع للتنديد بالهدف الأميركي كان لافتاً أن يكون التوقيت متزامناً مع الجدل حول سوتشي ودور كلّ من الأكراد والأتراك، لتدور جملة من الفرضيات حول مستقبل مدينة عفرين وسيطرة الأكراد عليها وتهديد الأتراك بدخولها، تكاد تنتهي بإعلان منطقة خفض توتر جديدة في عفرين، أو خروج سلمي كردي منها ودخول تركي رمزي إليها، وتصير عفرين بدلاً من إدلب، بالنسبة لتركيا، وسوتشي بشراكة كردية بدلاً من عفرين، بالنسبة للأكراد.

– اللافت بالتزامن أن يعلن كلّ من دي ميستورا وجماعة الرياض مواقف توحي بتغييرات لمواقفهما من سوتشي، فدي ميستورا يوجه الدعوة لتشاور في فيينا لممثلي الحكومة والمعارضة ليناقش سوتشي يقول إن لا مشكلة مكان جنيف أو فيينا أو سوتشي، والمهم هي المحادثات والأمم المتحدة ستشارك على الأرجح وتشجّع على المشاركة. وفي المقابل تقول هيئة الرياض إنها تدرس المشاركة وإنها طلبت لقاء موفد روسي خاص للتباحث معه حول بعض التوضيحات قبل سوتشي.

– معادلة إدلب عفرين سوتشي تبدو سالكة، حتى لو أصرّ الجميع أن لا صلة بين أطراف هذا المثلث. ومن يسمع خطاب وزير الخارجية الأميركي ريكس تيلرسون عن سورية ليل أمس، يعرف أنّ حجم ما تعرفه الخارجية الأميركية عن سياسات حكومتها في سورية يعيش في العموميات، ولا يتعدّى حدود ما تطلبه منها المخابرات العسكرية التي تتولى إدارة السياسة في البلدان التي يوجد فيها عسكريون أميركيون.

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OVER 100 MEMBERS OF AHRAR AL-SHAM SURRENDER TO SYRIAN ARMY IN HOMS

Over 100 Members Of Ahrar al-Sham Surrender To Syrian Army In Homs

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OVER 100 MEMBERS OF AHRAR AL-SHAM SURRENDER TO SYRIAN ARMY IN HOMS

On December 22, 121 fighters of the Ahrar al-Sham Movement from the town of Daar al-Kabira the northern Homs countryside laid down their arms and surrendered to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), according to the Russian Reconciliation Centre in Syria.

The Reconciliation Centre said that the fighters agreed to surrender after a joint work between its officers and the Syrian National Reconciliation Committee. The center added that its field commanders continue to negotiate with commanders of different Syrian oppositions groups in the provinces of Aleppo, Damascus, Homs, Hama and al-Quneitra to extend the ceasefire agreement in Syria.

The northern Homs countryside is one of the de-escalation zones that has been established in Syria. However, the de-escalation agreement there has been breached many times by a coalition of the Ahrar al-Sham Movement, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and several US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) groups.

Ahrar al-Sham fighters likely surrendered because they refuse the hostile acts of Ahrar al-Sham and its allies in the northern Homs countryside. Many pro-government activists believe that these hostile acts may force the SAA and its allies to launch a military operation to secure the northern Homs countryside, that has been besieged for the last 3 years.

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واشنطن تقايض الرياض بالقدس

واشنطن تقايض الرياض بالقدس

ديسمبر 15, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– تستطيع أي نظرة متفحّصة لما يجري في ملفي فلسطين وسورية تبيّن الخيط الرفيع الرابط، وهو المصالح «الإسرائيلية»، ومضمون هذه المصالح واضح بتجميد أي حلّ سياسي في سورية مبنيّ على حقائق الميدان العسكري، يسهّل عودة الدولة السورية وتعافيها، منعاً لما يشكّله ذلك من مكاسب فورية لمحور المقاومة كقوى وحكومات تستعدّ لجعل فلسطين أولويّتها، وإسقاط القرار الأميركي حول القدس عنوانها المباشر، فبقاء الارتباك والتشوش في مستقبل سورية هدف «إسرائيلي» دائم، ويصير أكثر حيوية في زمن المواجهة المتفجّرة في فلسطين ومساعي محور المقاومة للتفرّغ لهذه المواجهة.

– يعرف الأميركيون أن دوام الحال من المحال، وأن تعقيد مسار جنيف لن يُقفل طرق البدائل الميدانية والسياسية، لذلك فهم يبيعون إنجاز التعقيد للسعودية، كطرف يرعى وفد التفاوض للمعارضة بسقوف لا تراعي المتغيّرات، فمنح واشنطن للتغطية للتعقيد السعودي مبني على مصلحة انتقالية، يجري خلالها البحث بمستقبل الوجود الأميركي في سورية قبل أي تسهيل للحل السياسي. وهو في الوقت نفسه مسعى لمبادلة الوجود الأميركي بضوابط تقييد لقوى المقاومة في سورية بما يحقّق بعض الاطمئنان لـ«إسرائيل ، لكن الرهان الأصلي يبقى على إطلاق مسارات تطغى على قرار القدس الذي أطلقه الأميركيون، ومساعدة الإسرائيليين على هضم نتائجه في الميدان.

– التفاهم الأميركي السعودي الإسرائيلي عميق، ولا يُحرِج الرياض القول علناً إنها على ثقة بأن واشنطن وسيط إيجابي ومقبول في عملية السلام، رغم قرار القدس، وأنّ لديها خطة للسلام يجري إنضاجها بالتنسيق مع السعودية، كما قال وزير خارجيتها عادل الجبير، الذي غاب عن مؤتمر القمة الإسلامية في اسطنبول هو وملكه وولي عهده، ليمثلهم وزير الثقافة، باعتبار قرار اعتماد القدس عاصمة لـ«إسرائيل قراراً ثقافياً، يتصل بالتراث لا بالسياسة والسيادة، وكان الجبير في باريس لرشوة فرنسا بتمويل مشروعها السياسي في الساحل الأفريقي مقابل تقبّل عدم صلاحيتها كوسيط للعملية التفاوضية تتطلع إليه قمة اسطنبول، بقوله الصريح ومن باريس أثناء انعقاد القمة، إن اوروبا يمكنها أن تساعد، لكنها لا تستطيع الحلول مكان واشنطن التي تبقى وحدها المؤهلة لإدارة العملية التفاوضية، وفقاً لقول الجبير.

– المسار الذي تُعِدّه واشنطن وتستعدّ الرياض وتل أبيب للتعاون تحت ظلاله، كشفت النقاب عنه ممثلة واشنطن في الأمم المتحدة، نيكي هايلي، بقولها إن الأولوية الأميركية هي تشكيل حلف دولي للراغبين بمواجهة إيران، وسارعت كل من السعودية وإسرائيل للإعلان عن جهوزيتهما للانضمام لهذا الحلف ورهان الثلاثي الأميركي السعودي الإسرائيلي هو نجاح مزدوج، الأول بجعل العداء لإيران يتقدّم على العداء لـ«إسرائيل ومصير القدس، فيرى الشارع العربي أن إسرائيل التي تهوّد القدس وأميركا التي تبيعها شركاء وحلفاء، لأنّهم يرفعون لواء العداء لإيران، والنجاح الثاني هو في تمكّن الثلاثي الأميركي السعودي الإسرائيلي من احتواء الانتفاضة الفلسطينية بالجمع بين القوة الإسرائيلية والمال السعودي والتلاعب السياسي الاستخباري المشترك بأوراق القيادات الفلسطينية، والسعودية أمام إغراء تغطية مواصلة عدوانها على اليمن مقابل تغطية تهويد القدس جاهزة للمقايضة.

– قوى محور المقاومة تقرأ وتدرك ما يجري من حولها، وتضع الخطط مقابل الخطط، ولذلك عطّلت القنبلة المفخّخة في جنيف بفضح اللعبة. وهذه المهمة تولاها رئيس الوفد السوري المفاوض السفير بشار الجعفري، بينما الساحة الفصل التي ستقول كلمتها هي فلسطين، حيث سيثبت أن إسرائيل لا تزال هي العدو، والقدس هي العنوان، وأن ساحات المواجهة لن تهدأ، والمسارات المفتعلة ستُحرق أيدي أصحابها، والقطار السوري سيمضي من دون أن ينتظر طويلاً نضج الآخرين للركوب في المقصورة المخصّصة لهم، والوجود الأميركي في سورية ليس تحت حماية إلهية، طالما أن الحرب على الإرهاب قد انتهت مهمته المزعومة فيها، وصار احتلالاً مكشوفاً، وطالما أن الصواريخ اليمنية قد اختبرت قدرتها على إنشاء توازن رعب وردع في مواجهة الوحشية السعودية في الحرب على المدن اليمنية.

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SYRIAN WAR REPORT – NOVEMBER 23, 2017: SYRIAN ARMY LIBERATES DOZEN VILLAGES IN EUPHRATES VALLEY

Syrian government forces have liberated a large area from ISIS on the western bank of the Euphrates. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) Tiger Forces have captured the villages of Ajrama, al-Safsafah, Ksu Umm Saba, al-Jahlah, al-Dwair, Wadi Abu Jasim, Surat al-Kshma, Subaykhan, Gharbiyah, Suwaydan Shamiyah, Dabyan, Musallakhah and the nearby points, according to pro-government sources.

Now, the Tiger Forces are developing momentum in order to link up with their counterparts advancing from the direction of al-Bukamal.

The ISIS-linked news agency Amaq claimed that at least 7 SAA soldiers, a battle tank and a bulldozer were destroyed during ISIS counter-attacks in the area. However, the terrorist group was not able to stop the SAA advance.

In southwestern Aleppo, an intense fighting was reported between the SAA and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) in the villages of Rajm Sawan, Hajara and al-Rashadiyah. Pro-government sources speculated that this was a start of the widely expected the SAA operation to establish control over the Abu al-Duhur Airbase. No official confirmation of these claims are available yet. It’s unlikely that the SAA and its allies launch any significant military operation in southwestern Aleppo before the full liberation of the western bank of the Euphrates from ISIS.

In northern Hama, ISIS cells expanded their control in the so-called opposition-held area and captured the villages of al-Judaydah, Madabah, Abu Khanadiq and the nearby points.

The Syrian Military Intelligence has seized a large shipment of weapons en route to the militant-held part of the Eastern Ghouta region, near Damascus.

The shipment included 15 Soviet Malyutka and its Iranian copy, Raad, anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) as well as 3 Soviet-made Konkurs ATGMs, 2 Russian-made Metis-M ATGMs and a French-made MILAN ATGM. 3 disassembled Soviet-made R-60 air-to-air missiles, dozens of US-made M72 LAW, Soviet-made RPG-22, RPG-26, and Czechoslovakian-made RPG-75 anti-tank rockets were also captured.

Additionally, the seized shipment included explosive belts, mines, explosive materials and a huge amount of drugs like marijuana and Captagon tablets.

On November 22, the presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey met in the Russian city of Sochi to discuss the situation in Syria.

According to the joint declaration, “the three presidents expressed support to the intra-Syrian dialog with the participation of representatives from all segments of the country’s society” and “urged representatives of the Syrian government and opposition speaking in favor of sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian state to take constructive part in the Syrian National Dialog Congress in Sochi in the near future.” The sides also discussed the de-escalation zones and other important issues of the conflict.

The meeting has clearly shown the new reality appearing in the Middle East, which the US-Israeli-Saudi block will have to accept.

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President Assad Meets with President Putin in Sochi

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President al-Assad with Putin: Coordination on highest levels on combating terrorism, pushing political track forwards

21 November، 2017
Sochi, SANA

President Bashar al-Assad held a summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi City in the presence of senior Russian political and military officials, during a work visit he paid to Russia on Tuesday.

President Putin congratulated President al-Assad on the successes achieved by Syria in the framework of combating terrorism and on approaching victory over terrorism.

Putin underlined the importance of the timing of the visit in increasing coordination between the two sides, holding additional consultations, and listening to the assessment of the Syrian leadership on the situation in Syria and on the shape of the next steps as well as its vision on the political process and the role of the UN in it before the summit during which he will meet his Iranian and Turkish counterparts in Sochi, Russia.

For his part, President al-Assad thanked President Putin for the warm welcome, saying that this meeting comes after two years and few weeks from launching the Russian military operation which supports the Syrian Arab Army in its war against terrorism and which has made significant achievements on different levels, on top, the humanitarian, military and political levels.

President al-Assad indicated that the victories achieved against terrorism led to the return of security to many areas and subsequently, citizens returned to them and the wheel of normal  life began to move again, in addition to pushing the political track forwards to find solution to the crisis in Syria.

President al-Assad clarified that the Russian policy has been active on different axes and all of them are important, particularly through affirming the necessity of the UN adherence to its Charter which asserts the sovereignty of the states and the noninterference in their internal affairs and the right of the nations to decide their destiny.

He underlined the importance of this meeting to coordinate on the highest levels between the two sides on different issues which the two countries are interested in including the continuation of combating terrorism, the exerted efforts with regard to the political track, the national dialogue congress and the next tripartite summit in Sochi.

For his part, Putin said that Russia is working with all parties for ending the crisis and finding a political solution in Syria, the issue which constitutes a basic interest for all, adding that this visit is an important opportunity for coordination on the basic principles of organizing the political process, and the issue of the national dialogue congress which Syria has supported.

The two presidents also discussed the current preparations for holding the National Dialogue Congress in Sochi in Russia, as President al-Assad thanked President Putin and the Russian leaderships for the efforts they exerted in this framework, affirming that Syria supports any political work, particularly after the decline of terrorism and that all doors are open locally and internationally to support this track “therefore, we hope that Russia will always succeed in what it says and does…to succeed in convincing the others to not interfere in any political solution, and to only support it from abroad without any interference.”

President al-Assad asserted that what is important today is to stop the bloodshed, and that Syria is ready to work with any country ready to contribute to the political solution as long as it is based on the Syrian sovereignty and the Syrian decision.

In turn, President Putin expressed Russia’s high appreciation for the readiness expressed by the Syrian Government and its openness on whoever wants peace and for the support provided by President al-Assad to Astana process in which the participants succeeded in establishing de-escalation zones and starting dialogue with all the Syrian parties.

Putin indicated that based on this meeting, he will hold consultations with the presidents who will come to Sochi and that there will be contacts with leaders of several countries “including the US President.”

President al-Assad conveyed thanks by the Syrian people to President Putin and the friendly and loyal Russian people for what Russia has done to protect the Syrians in face of terrorism, and to protect the unity of the Syrian territories, in addition to what the Russian institutions have done to support the Syrian people in all domains, particularly the military institution which has made a lot of sacrifices to protect the sovereignty and independence of Syria and its territorial integrity.

Talks during the meeting also highlighted the importance of continuing to fight terrorism represented in Daesh (ISIS) and Jabhat al-Nusra and the groups affiliated to them.

The two presidents met a group of senior Russian officers who participated in supporting the Syrian Arab Army in its war against terrorism, as President al-Assad underlined the importance of the role played by the Russian Armed Forces in the war against terrorism as Russian military personnel were martyred and the Russian Forces have exerted huge efforts in the battles against terrorism in Syria, indicating that the whole world is watching the significant outcomes achieved on this level thanks to the sacrifices by the Syrian forces and the Russian forces and by Syria’s allies.

The meeting was attended by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Assistant to Russian President Yuri Ushakov, Russian President’s Special Envoy on Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, and Director of the Middle East and North Africa Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Vershinin.

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SYRIA-IRAQ WAR REPORT – OCTOBER 30, 2017: SYRIAN ARMY CRASHES ISIS AND AL-QAEDA IN NORTHERN HAMA

South Front

Syrian government forces are clashing with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and ISIS in the northeastern countryside of Hama.

Recently, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and the National Defense Forces (NDF) liberated the villages of Jub Tabqaliyah, Abu Laffah, Wadi Zurub, Kherbet Juwayid, Msheirfeh and Rasm al-Tinah. According to pro-government sources, 30 HTS members, including 3 military commanders, were killed.

Separately, the SAA and the NDF advanced on the village of Abu Dali in northern Hama. It was captured by HTS on October 8.
According to pro-government sources, government forces recaptured Farkeh, Zahra Hill and Rajm Alahmar area, but didn’t enter Abu Dali itself.

The SAA and the NDF used clashes between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and ISIS in order to prepare and launch a limited military operation aimed at building a wider buffer zone west of the Ithriyah-Aleppo highway, which has been repeatedly attacked by militants over the last year.

In the city of Deir Ezzor, the SAA Tiger Forces, the Republican Guard and the NDF liberated worker district 1, worker district 2, Afri district and the stadium from ISIS terrorists. Government troops also advanced in the districts of al-Hamidiyah and Jbela.

The advance came amid an intense fighting with ISIS. The terrorist group’s media outlet Amaq claimed that pro-government forces lost 35 fighters, two battle tanks and a BMP-1 vehicle.

At the same time, the SAA and Hezbollah attempted to push towards al-Bukamal from the direction of T2 Pumping Station. However, no significant success was achieved.

On October 28, the US-led coalition officially announced that it and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are working to consolidate their gains in the Omar oil fields and to advance on the ISIS-held border town of al-Bukamal at the border with Iraq.

The real goal of the advance is to attempt to prevent Syria and Iraq from restoring control over the Deir Ezzor-Baghdad highway.

In Iraq, the army, the Federal Police, the Counter-Terrorism Service and the Popular Mobilization Units are working to build a buffer between an area controlled by the US-backed forces in Syria and an area controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq.

As soon as, government forces establish full control over Faysh Khabur area, this goal will be achieved. Furthermore, Iraq and Turkey have already agreed to establish a Turkish-Iraqi border crossing using this area.

The successful operation of government forces to re-take contested areas from the KRG’s Peshmerga force came amid a rapid push towards the ISIS-held city of al-Qaim. This clearly demonstrated that the army and its allies have much more military power than the KRG’s leadership expected while it was starting their attempt to secede from Iraq.

On Sunday, the KRG’s President Masoud Barzani announced that he resigns from the presidency on November 1. This decision is a logical result of the recent failures of the KRG policy and a loss of large oil—rich areas to the federal government that started with the September 25 independence referendum held by Barzani’s government.

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Resistance Axis Won in Syria, Farewell to Arms

September 19, 2017

Syrian Army

Syria is heading towards a comprehensive settlement.
Farewell to arms.

Syria is on a new path, and it is witnessing a major shift from battlefield to political negotiations, and intensified diplomacy.
The liberation of Deir Ezzor from the Takfiri ISIL group has ushered in a new era where political settlement would be brought to the forefront. This does not necessarily mean that military battles have been dashed away. We might be still heading to the mother of all battles in the remaining part of Deir Ezzor area, as many of ISIL foreign fighters would be sieged with no hope to go anywhere or to be part of any settlement. This would leave them with only one choice, fighting till death, especially that some senior cadres and higher leaderships of the Takfiris are among them there.

At any rate, the battle there would necessarily end with ISIL defeat.

Now the whole political spectrum has been shuffled, and all are anticipating a two year political settlement which will start with a transitional period. The main headlines would include the following:

– Dr. Bashar Al-Assad continues to be the head of the Syrian state.
– The integrity and unity of the Syrian soil would be definitely preserved.
– The reconciliation process will continue to take place, yet with a faster pace and wider space.
– Al-Nusra and ISIL would be necessarily eliminated from the Syrian geography as two main terrorist groups.
– Astana negotiations have reached tangible results starting from the above points.

Of course, the negotiations will continue and the liquidation of remaining terrorists pockets and enclaves too.

To sum up the argument, Syria has started a new process of reconciliation and reconstruction where the upper hand should be for the winning party. Doubtlessly, this is the resistance axis that stretches from Tehran to Palestine.

Source: Al-Manar Website

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