واشنطن خسرت الرهان ولم يبق أمامها إلا تأجيل الإذعان بالهزيمة..!

 

محمد صادق الحسيني

ما تقوم به واشنطن من تحرّكات وتتخذه من سياسات وتمارسه من أفعال وردود أفعال على الساحتين العراقية والسورية، ميدانياً وسياسياً وأمنياً، بعد النصر الاستراتيجي الكبير المتمثّل بتطهير بلاد الشام والرافدين من داعش، يضعه المتابعون في خانة المساعي الحثيثة التي تبذلها الإدارة الأميركية الجديدة لتأخير تحقّق الكارثة الحتمية لبعض الوقت، والتي تقضي بضرورة الإذعان قريباً بهزيمتها الاستراتيجية أمام حلف المقاومة وصديقها الروسي الذي بات قوة دولية عظمى ولاعباً أساسياً في موازين القوى العالمية الجديدة والذي لا يمكن إنكار دوره بتاتاً…!

وذلك تماماً، كما حصل لدول المحور في نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية والتي ظلت تتردّد في التسليم بخسارتها للحرب الى أن اضطرت ألمانيا النازية ولو بعد هجومات مضادة عديدة في قلب جبهة الاتحاد السوفياتي آنذاك بالقبول أخيراً بالاذعان لهزيمتها في العام 1945!

وفي هذا السياق تقوم الولايات المتحدة الأميركية بسلسلة من المحاولات الفاشلة لوقف تداعيات الهزيمة الاستراتيجية لمشروعها، الذي هو بالأساس مشروع الاستعمار الغربي الذي يسمّى بـ «الشرق الأوسط الإسرائيلي» بشكل عام، والذي كانت أدوات تنفيذه الرئيسية، بعد خروج الدول الاستعمارية التقليدية، فرنسا وبريطانيا، مهشمة بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية. وقد كانت أدوات تنفيذ هذا المشروع كما هو معلوم تتمثل في:

1 ـ خلق الكيان الصهيوني في فلسطين المحتلة او بالأحرى تسليم فلسطين، من قبل قوات الاحتلال البريطاني هناك، الى العصابات الصهيونية المختلفة من الهاغاناه وشتيرن الى منظمة ايتسل وليحي وغيرها… وهي الكناية عن داعش والقاعدة وأخواتهما في عصرنا الحاضر والتي تقوم بالدور نفسه تماماً.

2 ـ تثبيت الكيانات الوظيفية في الدول العربية المحيطة باللقيط الجديد، المسمّى «إسرائيل»، وذلك خدمة للمشروع الاستعماري الهادف الى استمرار السيطرة على العالم العربي والهيمنة عليه ونهب ثرواته ومقدراته، أيّ بهدف ضمان عدم ظهور أيّ حركات ثورية لمقاومة احتلال فلسطين وتحريرها من ذلك الاحتلال.

ولكن ظهور الثورة الفلسطينية في أواسط ستينيات القرن الماضي واشتداد عودها، بعد هزيمة الدول العربية في حرب عام 1967، قد أفشل جهود إسدال الستار على احتلال فلسطين وتكريس «إسرائيل» كأداة غربية مهيمنة على المنطقة العربية.

كذلك جاء انتصار الثورة الإسلامية في إيران عام 1979 وتحالفها مع محيطها العربي الناهض وبشكل أخصّ الثورة الفلسطينية والدولة السورية المعادية للمخططات الاستعمارية في المنطقة، بمثابة ضربة جديدة لمشاريع الهيمنة الاستعمارية على المنطقة. بينما جاء ظهور حزب الله في بداية ثمانينيات القرن الماضي بمثابة تعزيز وتكريس لخطّ مقاومة مشروع الاستعمار الغربي في المنطقة العربية والذي تُعتبر «إسرائيل» رأس حربته منذ إيجادها.

وقد شكّل انتصار حزب الله، على الجيش الإسرائيلي وإجباره على الانسحاب من جنوب لبنان مهزوماً في شهر أيار 2000، ومن ثم الانتصار المدوّي على الجيش الإسرائيلي سنة 2006، نقول إنّ هذه الانتصارات قد شكلت بداية الهزيمة الاستراتيجية الأميركية في المنطقة، خاصة بعد أن كانت كونداليزا رايس، ومعها بعض الأعراب، قد أعلنت بأنّ القضاء على حزب الله سوف يمهّد الطريق لإقامة ما أطلقت عليه الشرق الأوسط الجديد، أيّ تكريس وجود الكيان الصهيوني وتكريس الهيمنة الأميركية المطلقة على المنطقة، خاصة في ظلّ الاحتلال الأميركي للعراق، والاختلال الكبير الذي كان يعتري موازين القوى في المنطقة العربية.

وبالإضافة الى الهزيمة التي لحقت بالجيش الإسرائيلي في لبنان وتصاعد وتيرة المقاومة العراقية، المدعومة إيرانياً وعلى نطاق واسع، ضدّ قوات الاحتلال الأميركي، وصولاً الى إرغامها على الانسحاب من العراق دون تحقيق أهدافها في تفتيت العراق وتحويله قاعدة لدعم القوى الإيرانية العميلة والهادفة لضرب الثورة الإيرانية، وذلك بهدف ضرب المشروع المقاوم للوجود الإسرائيلي والذي تعتبر إيران سنده الحقيقي.

وانطلاقاً من وعي الولايات المتحدة لحجم الهزيمة التي مُنيت بها في حرب تموز 2006 واضطرارها للانسحاب من العراق تحت وطأة ضربات المقاومة العراقية الباسلة فقد انتقلت الإدارة الأميركية إلى البدء بتطبيق خطة بديلة، في محاولة لاستعادة زمام المبادرة في الميدان، والتي تمثلت في إطلاق مشروع الفوضى الخلاقة في الدول العربية. وكانت سورية قد شكّلت الهدف الأساس أو المركزي في هذا المشروع، وذلك بسبب الدور الداعم للمقاومة الفلسطينية واللبنانية الذي كانت ولا زالت سورية تقوم به على أكمل وجه.

وهذا يعني العمل على ضرب العمق الاستراتيجي لكلّ قوى المقاومة سواء اللبنانية او الفلسطينية التي تواصل مقاومتها للاحتلال الصهيوني لفلسطين، أيّ انّ مشروع الولايات المتحدة كان يهدف، من خلال تدمير الدولة الوطنية السورية وتفتيت سورية ككيان وطني مقاوم، الى حرمان المقاومة في لبنان وفلسطين من الدعم الإيراني الواسع بعد ان يتمّ القضاء على حلقة الوصل الاستراتيجية بين إيران الثورة وحركات المقاومة.

وقد أدّى فشل هذا المشروع، وعلى الرغم من قيام الولايات المتحدة ومعها أردوغان وآل سعود ومشيخة قطر بزجّ أكثر من نصف مليون مرتزق معلومات المخابرات الخارجيه الألمانية والتي نشرت رسمياً أحصت ما مجموعه ثلاثمئة وستين ألف مرتزق أجنبي دخلوا سورية وانضمّوا الى العصابات المسلحة هناك وتمويلهم وتسليحهم على نطاق واسع، وعلى مدار سبع سنوات كاملة. الآن وبعد الانتصارات الكبرى التي حققها الجيش العربي السوري وقوات حلف المقاومة، وخاصة بعد التدخل الروسي الفعّال والمباشر دعماً للدولة السورية، نقول بعد فشل مشروعهم هذا وبحجة محاربة داعش، الذي أوجدته القوى المشار اليها أعلاه، ومن ثم بحجة ضرورة الإبقاء على الانتشار العسكري الأميركي في كلّ من سورية والعراق، خوفاً مما يسمّونه عودة داعش الى الظهور ثانية وتهديد أمن المنطقة، فقد عمدت الولايات المتحدة إلى إقامة عشرات القواعد ونقاط الارتكاز العسكرية في البلدين والتي كانت آخرها القاعدة العسكرية التي تعمل الولايات المتحدة على أقامتها في منطقة معبر الوليد العراقي.

في حين أنّ نظرة عابرة على توزيع وأماكن وجود هذه القواعد ونقاط الارتكاز العسكرية الأميركية توضح، وبما لا يدع مجالاً للتأويل أنّ الهدف من ذلك هو:

أولاً: استكمال تطويق إيران بالقواعد العسكرية، بدءاً من حدودها الجنوبية الغربية، في مدخل الخليج وعُمان عبر قطر فالإمارات فالبحرين والسعودية والكويت وصولاً الى محافظات العراق الشمالية، حيث أقامت الولايات المتحدة الأميركية قواعد لها في كلّ من المنصورية/ حلبجة/ التونكبري/ كركوك/ على حدود إيران الشمالية الغربية مع العراق.

ثانياً: إقامة ما يشبه خط دفاع كاملاً، من خلال سلسلة من القواعد من شمال العراق وحتى داخل الحدود الأردنية مع العراق، إذ أنشأت قواعد لها في كلّ من: سنجار/ البغدادي/ الرمادي/ عين الأسد/ الوليد/ ومن ثم قاعدة الرويشد الجوية وقاعدة الأزرق وقاعدة المفرق الجويتين وكلها داخل الحدود الأردنية، وذلك لهدفين:

ـ إقامة تواصل جوي بري بين شمال العراق وفلسطين المحتلة بما يشبه الجدار العازل بين إيران وعمقها العربي من أربيل إلى حيفا…

ـ إنشاء ما يشبه المنطقة العازلة بين العراق وسورية لمنع التواصل البري بين المقاومة اللبنانية وإيران عبر العراق وسورية.

وهذا يعني أنّ الولايات المتحدة، وبعد تيقنها من الفشل الاستراتيجي الذي لحق بمشروعها في «الشرق الأوسط» تلجأ الآن إلى محاولة منع تعزيز انتصارات حلف المقاومة، عبر ما تسمّيه احتواء النفوذ الإيراني في المنطقة، وكذلك منع تكريس التحوّلات العميقة في الميزان الاستراتيجي الدولي والذي أدّى إلى إنهاء هيمنة القطب الواحد، الولايات المتحدة الأميركية على العالم، وما يعنيه ذلك من ولادة نظام عالمي جديد غير خاضع لإرادة واشنطن.

في حين أنّ كلّ هذه التكتيكات لا تؤكد إلا المؤكد، ألا وهو أنّ واشنطن تفتقد الى استراتيجية واقعية لإيجاد حلّ سياسي شامل لأزمات المنطقة بشكل خاص، والعالم بشكل عام، تكون قاعدته تفكيك دولة الاحتلال الصهيونية في فلسطين، وليس تفكيك سلاحها النووي فقط، وإعادة الحقوق الفلسطينية الى الشعب الفلسطيني صاحب الأرض والبحر والجو في فلسطين، أيّ تحقيق الهدف الاستراتيجي الذي تسعى أطراف حلف المقاومة الى تحقيقه عبر مواصلة هجومها الاستراتيجي على الجبهات كافة. أما ما عدا ذلك فلن يؤدّي إلا إلى مزيد من الخسائر للولايات المتحدة الأميركية وعلى الصعد الاقتصادية والسياسية والعسكرية كافة، ولن تفيدها لا المناورات المشتركة مع جيش الاحتلال الإسرائيلي ولا المناورات مع جيش مشيخة قطر «العظمى».

بعدنا طيبين، قولوا الله…

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Who is doing what in Syria and why

February 10, 2018

by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog

It seems that every time a chapter in the war on Syria comes to an end, a new factor surfaces. Just like the 1975-1989 civil war in Lebanon before it, and which started off with a clash between the PLO and the Lebanese rightwing Phalangist militia and then ended up with an Israeli invasion and its aftermath, the war on Syria is now a totally different war from the one that started seven years ago.

With other players gone or having their roles changed, the only persisting player is the Syrian Army of course, fighting here for the integrity and sovereignty of Syria. We cannot include its allies, because even its allies have changed.

There is much speculation about recent events, a lot of war and fear-mongering, but if all elements of the current powers on the ground are dissected and analyzed, it becomes very easy to see what is going on and who is doing what.

Before we try to understand who is doing what and why, let us first identify who are the main players on the ground and behind the scenes; past and present. This is a short list:

  1. Syria of course
  2. Saudi Arabia
  3. Qatar
  4. Kurds
  5. Turkey
  6. Iran
  7. Hezbollah
  8. Israel
  9. the USA
  10.  Russia

Notwithstanding the inevitable continuing role and presence of Syria and popular national Syrian allied forces in the war against her, we must acknowledge that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have already played their role and walked away as losers. For the sake of historic documentation, this had to be mentioned even though they do not have much of an influence and clout at all at present.

Kurds are playing a role that cannot be discussed without acknowledging the role they played between 2011 and 2015/16. Kurdish fighters, separatists or otherwise, have upheld Syrian border integrity in Syria’s north from as early as 2011 when the Syrian Army had no allies on the ground. And even though the Syrian Army and Kurdish fighters did not fight physically within the same trench, the Kurds fought fiercely in the north, holding their ground, against Turkish-facilitated incursions and against ISIS later on.

However, as Kurdish separatist movements were established and as they were not preemptively contained under the roof of Damascus, something had to give.

Kurds who are separatists will do anything and make deals with anyone to make their dream come true. History has shown that they are prepared to join hands with America and even Israel.

It must be acknowledged however that Kurds who are not separatists, and there is no way of telling their percentage any more than there is a way of telling the percentage of those who are, do not seem to have much of a voice in their community. Furthermore, seemingly there isn’t an all-inclusive nationally-endorsed rationale where they can address their concerns against those who are separatists and in a manner that can allay their fears and apprehensions as a minority group in such a way that would quell their desire for independence.

Turkey’s role has been changing with the tides in the last seven years. From wanting to topple the Syrian Government and Erdogan praying at the Omayyad Mosque as the conqueror of Damascus, Erdogan is now in a much more humble damage-control mode hoping to at least be able to prevent the formation of a Kurdish state south of his borders. The turn of events in the war, and the bargain plea reconciliation he has had with Russia after Turkey downed a Russian Su-24 in Nov 2015 has put Erdogan in that position. But Erdogan, the compulsive Islamist and nationalist, will always try to look for opportunities to turn and stab anyone in the back because his dreams of a great Turkey-based Muslim sultanate are bigger than any deal and treaty he signs with anyone.

That said, Erdogan will not settle for any outcome that will mean the establishment of a Kurdish state. Unless the tides change in his favour, it is highly unlikely that he will change course and demand more.

In effect, the war in northern Syria is more or less totally separate from the one heating up in the south with Israel.

Iran: The Syrian theatre has brought Iran physically closer to Israel in a manner that opened up a new border line that is bigger than the one Hezbollah has in Southern Lebanon. Israel does not have the reciprocal privilege. That said, whilst Israeli presence is not officially recognized in states like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, there is little doubt that the Eastern coast of the Persian/Arabian Gulf is under Israeli direct or indirect control in more ways than one.

That said, it must be remembered that Iran’s issue with Israel is doctrinal and not territorial.

In brief, Iran’s military presence in Syria is in adherence to the common defense treaty it has with Syria, but it is also aimed at protecting Iran’s own interests and establishing military presence and rocket-launching capabilities that are only a few kilometers from major Israeli cities in comparison to the one thousand or so kilometers that separate Israel from Iran, or at best a couple of hundred that separate the east coast of the Persian/Arab Gulf from Iran’s southern cities.

Given that Iran is not a nuclear power and Israel is, based on the above, any conventional military confrontation with Israel will put Iran in a position of advantage.

Iran’s status in Syria can be either seen as offensive or defensive vis-à-vis Israel. Most likely, it is defensive, and Iran is unlikely to use its Syrian-based positions to initiate an unprovoked attack on Israel given Israel’s nuclear deterrence.

Hezbollah: In more ways than one, ideologically-speaking, Hezbollah is an extension of Iran. But strategically-speaking, Hezbollah is a part of the Lebanese political process. Moreover, Hezbollah’s issue with Israel is both doctrinal, and territorial.

Hezbollah went into Syria to defend Syria of course, but in defending Syria, Hezbollah was defending itself and Lebanon.

The supply lines for Hezbollah came from Syria, and this is no secret. But even if Hezbollah had to establish alternative routes after seven years of war, Hezbollah remains dependent on Syria for ensuring the depth of its survival and ability to fight. Even if Hezbollah went further and managed to establish its own military manufacturing base, and this is not unlikely, it remains entwined with Syria at levels that are essential for its survival and continuity.

Ideologically, Hezbollah is perhaps closer to Iran than any other ally, but strategically, it cannot be closer to any other ally more than Syria. To expect Hezbollah to yield to pressure and withdraw from Syria prematurely is tantamount to expecting North Korea to surrender its nuclear arsenal.

Israel: It wouldn’t be surprising to say that the post-Kissinger USA has left Israel feeling secure and privileged to the extent that it was able to coerce the world’s single superpower to rubber-stamp what suited it; even if it was against the interests of that superpower.

However, with all the support America gave Israel, Israel was not able to find peace, real lasting peace. Military superiority and peace are two different things, and America was able to provide Israel with the former, but not the latter.

But even that military superiority that meant once upon a time that Israel was untouchable has been eroded. The rise of Hezbollah to power in a manner that enabled it to bomb “Haifa and beyond” in July 2006 has sent shivers down the spines of Israeli military strategists.

Israel now has no idea what to expect if and when another military escalation ensues with Hezbollah and it is bracing for the worst.

Given the latest confrontations with the Syrian air defenses, Israel seems to be in a similar position in not knowing what to expect from Syria either.

The USA: In all what the USA has done in supporting the initial Saudi/Qatari/Turkish attack in the war on Syria, it achieved nothing more than defeat after defeat.

If there was ever a time during the last seven years for America to launch a major attack on Syria, it would have been done on the pretext of a chemical weapon attack allegedly perpetrated by the Syrian Army on Eastern Ghouta, but Obama did not take the Saudi-orchestrated bait. If Obama took a single and somber decision for which he will be positively remembered once all the dust has settled, it will have to be his decision not to attack Syria in early September 2013.

But Trump’s America inherited a Syria in which America has no presence or influence. The ailing nation cannot be seen to be standing still doing nothing about this.

Russia: Discussing the role of Russia was left till the end because to emphasize once again, as per previous articles, that the role of Russian diplomacy is becoming increasingly important in Syria and the Levant in general.

To put all of the above into a realistic perspective, there is a potential war brewing in southern Syria, a war that has little to do with the one raging in the north, and only Russia has the potential of dealing with the conflict.

There is no speck of doubt in my mind that Russia has a Middle East peace plan.

There is no doubt in my mind that Russia wants to catapult America out of its role as the Middle East peace talk negotiator; a role that it played for more than four decades now without any scores on the board.

It must be remembered that despite all the concessions PLO leaders gave Israel, America was unable to provide any peace to Palestine, and not even to Israel for that matter. It is highly likely that even Israel is growing tired of America’s elusive promises of peace; and the peace Israel was promised was based on quashing the axis of resistance and establishing toothless puppet Arab regimes that dance to America’s tune, and who would normalize relationships with Israel and not pose any threat at all, not now, not in the future.

So Russia is strengthening her position in the Middle East in preparation for the opportune moment to elevate herself to be accepted by all parties concerned as the single arbitrator who is capable of negotiating an all-inclusive deal.

The rest is simply posturing.

The recent escalation between Syria and Israel is not a prelude for a bigger war. Nobody wants a war; not right now, as they are all aware of the damage that can be inflicted upon them.

Israel keeps testing the waters, testing Syria’s air defense capabilities, and above all, testing Russia’s resolve and determination to create a true balance of power in the Middle East.

Some Arabs would be disappointed that Russia would not allow the total destruction of Israel, but Russia has never promised this. On the other hand however, Russia is pushing Israel to be realistic, and has never promised Israel total and unconditional support like the USA did since the days of Kissinger.

Unless Israel can safeguard itself against Hezbollah rockets, and which it can’t, it will never initiate an all-out war with either Syria, Hezbollah, or both; not forgetting the Iranian presence on the ground in Syria, just outside Israel’s borders.

Israel has to either accept that the rules of the game have changed, or risk an escalation that will inflict huge damage on its infrastructure and civilians. The recent downing of an Israeli F-16 by Syrian air defenses and the subsequent call Netanyahu made to Russian President Putin is a clear indication that Israel is not happy with the fact that Russian arm supplies to Syria are changing the balance of power.

An astute look at recent events can only propose that Russia is trying to drag Israel into peace talks that are based on a regional balance of power, but Israel is not convinced yet that it has to do this anymore than it is convinced that it has lost its military upper hand. On the other hand, Russia will find it very difficult to convince Syria, Hezbollah and Iran that they should have any peace at all with Israel. All the while, America realizes that it has no presence in the war in the south, and is using the Kurdish pretext to have “a” presence in the north in order not to miss out on being party to any settlement. Erdogan is doing his bit to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state in Syria. Other than that he has no role to play in the potential brewing conflict in the south. At the end, America will stab the Kurds in the back like it did many times earlier, the Kurdish aspirations for independence will be pushed back for many decades, and the real focus will be on the south, on Russia’s yet undeclared role and plan for a Middle East peace plan.

Ex-Qatari premier: US coordinated foreign support for terrorists in Syria

http://PressTV.com/Default/Embed/540168

Qatar’s former prime minister has revealed how the United States coordinated support by Doha, Riyadh and Ankara for terrorists operating against the Syrian government over the past years of conflict in the Arab country.

Hamad bin Jassim admitted in an interview on October 26 with Qatari national broadcaster that his country, a tiny state to the south of the Persian Gulf, was part of a group of four countries that delivered weapons and funds to the terrorists in Syria.

Hamad said Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey sent their weapons for militant groups in Syria via the US military forces in the region.

“Anything [weapons] that was sent [to Syria] would go through Turkey and was coordinated with the US, and the distribution of anything was via US forces,” the former Qatari premier said.

Hamad said the four countries only supported those armed groups designated as the moderate Syrian opposition in the West but outlawed by the Syrian government. He admitted that many of the weapons had found their way into the hands of al-Nusra Front, a group allied to al-Qaeda. Hamad rejected similar claims about supporting Daesh, the main Takfiri terrorist group operating in Syria.

‘Saudis now want Assad in power’

Hamad also censured the Saudi regime for revising its policy on Syria by forgetting previous calls for the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He said the Saudis now wanted Assad to stay in power, a stance, he said, Riyadh was not willing to share with others.

“You [Saudi Arabia] are now saying keep Bashar. Ok let him stay, we don’t have any problem, we have no quarrel with him. He was a friend of us … But you [Saudi Arabia] were in the same trench with us, if you changed your mind, tell us so,” Hamad said.

Qatar has been locked in a political standoff with Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries for the past months. The dispute came apparently after the situation in Syria changed dramatically in favor of government forces and terrorists were purged from key positions across the country.

Syria and Russia, its main military ally, blame the US for continued bloodshed in eastern Syria, saying they have evidence that US forces stationed in Jordan have been providing Daesh, which is losing grounds in the area, with intelligence support.

Debate: sponsoring terrorism in Syria

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Qatar: Center Stage in a World at War?

Doha, Qatar

[Ed note – An interesting analysis on the dispute between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and its potential for engulfing the rest of the Middle East and exploding into World War III, has been posted by blogger Green Crow. The piece is written by “James” and reposted from his Winter Patriot blog. Qatar, in his analysis, sees US influence in the Middle East waning and is pivoting toward Iran, Syria, and Russia, and he notes that both Iran and Russia have sent food shipments to Qatar in order to break the blockade imposed by the Saudis. Turkey is now openly siding with the Qataris as well–and this also makes perfect sense. US support for the Kurds in Syria–with the US seemingly now moving in the direction of setting up a de facto Kurdish state–would of course have to be a major, MAJOR “red line” for Turkey. This of course puts two NATO allies, the US and Turkey, at odds with each other. Bottom line: there is a major shift in alliances occurring.

James, the writer, mentions a Cross Talk program which aired June 14 in which Sharmine Narwani was guest and gave some valuable perspectives on the situation. You can find that program here, but there is also a more recent Cross Talk Program, here, that features Alexander Mercouris, that also discusses the further evolving situation. The program, which aired June 23, is entitled “Rushing to War?” Basically, what it comes down to is that the ISIS proxies seem to be headed toward collapse. So what happens with the proxies are finally defeated with the major powers gathered in Syria left alone staring each other in the face? Does that make a major war more likely? This is the question explored on the show. ]

By Greencrow

There have been some very good analyses of the Qatar crisis on the Alternative Internet in the past few days. My instincts tell me that this crisis might just be the one that puts the globalist neocon ziofascist push towards WWIII, which has been stalled due to some genius “checkmating” by Russia, over the top.  In my opinion, Saudi Arabia and its allies are, just like the ISIS terrorists, acting as USrael’s proxy in the Middle East…just on a grander scale.  In the guest column below, James fromWinter Patriot Blog has a very comprehensive and well presented assessment of what is going on in Qatar. I have added bolding and emphasis, and will have more thoughts in comments to follow…

Continued here

Qatar Is Centre Stage In A World At War – UPDATED

Update at the foot of this article.

A few weeks ago, the Saudis exploded in their rhetoric against Qatar. They were apoplectic. What on earth could have caused this sudden flood of vitriol? Obviously, it was not the fact that Qatar was funding terrorists in Syria as this had been an open secret for years. Plus, it was also an open secret that the Saudi’s themselves are funding terrorism and even supplying many of the terrorists. The Qataris must have been threatening in a major way either or both of the two things the Saudis hold dear – their money and their political power. The former is increasingly dependent on the latter. Sharmine Narwani appeared on RT’s Crosstalk to talk about the Saudi/Qatar conflict. She was definitely the smartest one in the room but no one was really listening to her. In answer to Peter Lavelle’s first question, she revealed that the terror groups supported by the Qatar/Turkish alliance had gone very quiet in the last month and this had allowed the Syrian govt forces to concentrate on ISIS which is directly backed by the Saudis and the UAE. Consequently, ISIS is in disarray.

Clearly, to this writer at least, a deal had been done between Qatar, Turkey and Syria. Russia would have to be on-board, too. This has massive implications for the whole world. Narwani also thought that the Saudis were not above attacking Qatar and it might be imminent. One reason, as Sharmine Narwani states, may be the fact that Qatari backed terrorists in Syria have been fighting directly with Saudi backed jihadis. This benefits Turkey as well as Syria.

View the Crosstalk segment:

Turkey is pissed that the US is obviously trying to set up a Kurdish state in the north of Syria and barring Turkish military involvement. This evolving Kurdish state-let will inevitably threaten Turkish sovereignty. But what about Qatar?

QATAR

Qatar must be able to see which way the wind is blowing in the Syrian conflict and realise that they are not going to get their gas pipeline through Syrian territory after all. The LNG market, from which they get the bulk of their revenue from, is now oversupplied (from the US and Australian sources amongst others) and forcing prices downward. Qatar’s income is declining and it needs to pipe its gas to a major market to stay competitive. Piped gas is much cheaper to deliver and distribute than LNG. The only option is to talk to the Iranians. It also makes major business sense to do so.

Qatar and Iran share the largest gas field in the world and it is largely undeveloped. It makes sense to develop this field together and market the gas together as well. With Iran as a partner, the way is then open for Qatar to negotiate with the Russians and the Syrians concerning pipeline routes. The way is also open to ensure the future cash flow of the Qatari government and its royal household. Russian technology and Chinese finance will make it all happen. I would estimate that the gas sales will be denominated in Yuan and Rubles.

UNITED STATES

The Americans will get (are getting) their knickers in a bunch but they are rapidly losing influence in the Middle East, as Sharmine said. She was trying to elucidate that the Middle East countries are looking to rearrange their alliances and strategies to take this into account when she was cut off by Peter Lavelle.  The US is losing the battle to maintain the US dollar as the undisputed world currency and this deal will hasten its demise. The world wide supremacy of the US dollar is what their empire is based on. No dollar supremacy equals no US political supremacy and this will severely curtail their effective military supremacy.

The bankers that control the US, UK and Israel maintain their power by controlling energy supplies and indebting everybody to keep them relatively poor. Every other nation on earth will benefit from breaking this lock on power and enjoy growing industrialisation, trade and prosperity. This is being brought into stark contrast in the Middle East starting with Qatar. Qatar can stay with the US and slowly strangle itself economically or it can take a risk and make a break for economic freedom and prosperity.

SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabia has ambitions of leading the Islamic world. It has used its gigantic income from oil sales to invest in religious indoctrination around the world and to bribe countries near and far. It has bought its way onto, if you can believe it, the UN Commission on the Status of Women and now heads the UN Human Rights Council. This is what money can do; but you need lots of money and a continuing supply of it. As the wealthiest oil exporter in the Middle East, it has dominated the Gulf Co-operation Council which, of course, includes Qatar.

Saudi Arabia’s income stream is declining and is needing to leverage what political power it has to gain more and to cover naked grabs of resources such as those in Yemen. But it needs the GCC to act as this lever. Qatar is undoing the Saudis dominance of the GCC. The Saudis future is at stake and with the Saudi royal house doubling down with the appointment of Mohammed bin Salman as Crown Prince, we can expect more military adventurism, i.e. wars, to hasten this decline and perhaps eventual demise.

TURKEY

There is the risk of an armed attack from the Saudis but Qatar has allies. Turkey is sending troops to Qatar. This is no small matter. Turkey has the largest military in the Middle East. Turkey is also making it clear that it has a major interest in the success of whatever deal Qatar is striking with Syria Iran and Russia. Iran and Russia have immediately sent food shipments to Qatar after the announcement of the blockade by Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Bahrain. It would seem from the co-ordinated response that the blockade was anticipated. Presumably, more is anticipated by this ad hoc alliance assisting Qatar.

With the original Qatar/Saudi pipeline dead in the water, Turkey would be amenable to a Qatar/Iran/Syrian pipeline going through Turkey. I’m sure their only demand would be that it not go through any Kurdish territory. Given that none of the other partners want the US/Israeli controlled and unreliable Kurds involved, that won’t be a problem. So the pipeline would have to go through the Aleppo corridor.

It would also need to go through south/eastern Syria where the US is now fighting at the risk of starting WW3 with the Russians. Now we see what the stakes are for the US and they are very high. If the gas pipeline goes through Turkey it will inevitably hook up with the Turkstream gas pipeline that will be Russian built and owned. Turkstream with travel through south eastern Europe; through the impoverished (thanks to the US and Germany) nations there. Turkey will become the gas hub between the suppliers in the Middle East, Russia and the Caucasus and on to the customers in Europe. Turkey has manoeuvred for a long time to be in this position. Much income and political influence to be gained and none of it dependent on the US!

EUROPE

Turkstream will be a lifeline to Serbia and Hungary. A branch line could easily extend to Greece and on to Italy. Europe’s prosperity will be massively enhanced with a secure, plentiful and cheap energy supplied from Iran, Qatar and Russia. German/EU and US dominance over southern and eastern Europe will evaporate as will US power. The Islamic mass migration may well stop, as well.

RUSSIA

In the immediate term, Russia will get what it has been aiming for and that is a ‘Gas OPEC’. Russia together with Iran and Qatar control the bulk of the world’s gas reserves and will set the price thereafter. Europe (Germany) will have to kick the US to the kerb and come to its senses regarding Russia and cease with the sanctions and resume normal bilateral trade arrangements. Peace and prosperity for Russia.

In the longer term, Russia will be able to see the back of the US in the Middle East and all the wars it brings with it and Russia will be left as the dominant power on its southern flank.

IRAN

Iran is being fast-tracked to join the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) which is a de-facto military alliance between Russia and China and now Pakistan and India. The window of opportunity to attack Iran is finally closing, if it has not already closed. Thus Iran will have the US and its bankers finally off its back and will be able to resume full trade with the rest of the world. No more sanctions and it can resume its path to peace and prosperity through selling oil and gas wherever it wants and relieve its population of the constant stress of the threat of imminent war.

PAKISTAN and CHINA

There are other players involved, too; China and Pakistan. There have been long term negotiations between Iran, Pakistan and China to pipe gas through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. No doubt, the Chinese would welcome Qatar as a partner in this project as it would also allow its influence to further spread into the other Gulf countries with their New Silk Road to follow.
Wherever the pipeline goes, so will roads and other infrastructure. The new infrastructure, together with the ready supply of energy, will assure development along the route and surrounding territory. This would be a massive boon for the Balochistan area and would quell the political unrest (sponsored by the CIA) that has cost both Pakistan and Iran, not to mention the Balochs. Exactly the same applies to the North-West Territories in the north of Pakistan.

No doubt the Pakistanis would like to be rid of the US which has bases on its territory and from which it launches aerial attacks against Pakistani territory at will. The list of benefits to multiple countries goes on and on but it won’t be smooth sailing. The US has been in decline for some years now but that hasn’t stopped it launching more wars and spreading terrorism and mayhem across the globe. This will continue. It is the nature of psychopathy to never give up; to always continue to do harm.

To get itself out of trouble over the centuries, the banking establishment, centered in London and New York, has started costly wars. They are now trying to do the same again in Syria and maybe soon in Qatar. We shall see soon enough.
Meanwhile I commend to you Pepe Escobar’s article at Sputnik where he talks about the implications of the SCO as well as the pipelines and the Qatari deal-

The West Can’t Smell What Eurasia is Cooking
https://sputniknews.com/columnists/201706161054701807-west-cannot-smell-…

Pepe is the ‘go-to’ man regarding pipelines. He was the first writer that I know of to seize their importance and ‘follow the pipelines’. He coined the term “Pipelineistan” and has written books about it.

UPDATE

Adam Garrie of The Duran has written an article outlining 13 demands that the Saudis have of Qatar. The list is not confirmed but “widely accepted” including by RT. Associated Press claims to have seen the document but AP is closely aligned with the Globalists, the Neocons and israel, but I repeat myself. So AP gives the list of demands credibility but because the Saudi govt has not confirmed it, it can shield itself from diplomatic criticism and back away from the “13 demands” at a later date if necessary.

Garrie notes that the demands are childish and he is right. This is what you get when you step on the toes big-time of psychopaths. They have the emotional maturity of 10 year olds. He also rightly notes that the demands cannot be complied with because they are extremely demeaning. This is intentional. Israel and the US routinely do the same when they want to start a war and this is precisely what Saudi Arabia is saying and wanting. ‘Either you stop with the alliance with Iran, Syria, Turkey and Russia or we will invade you. Israel and the US have to be onboard with this. And why wouldn’t they be? Their psychopathic dreams and political futures are equally at stake here as outlined above.”

***********************

So, there are a couple of deductions I would like to add to James’s excellent analysis.  He may have already made some of these points but I would like to emphasize the following in point form:

– Saudi Arabia and its allies are acting as proxies for USrael and the European Banksters that run their perpetual war for Profit global scam.

– They have definitely made the terms issued to Qatar “non negotiable“…to ensure a WWIII in the very short term…which will avoid their looming bankruptcy and (perhaps worse) geopolitical irrelevancy!

– Ultimately, just like everything else that has gone on in the Middle East for the past 15 years or more…this is aimed at Russia/China/Iran….but particularly Russia/Putin.  It will take every ounce of his chessmaster skills to outmaneuver the perps this time.  They’ve doubled down for “one final roll of the dice”…and Qatar is it.  Stay tuned.

هيثم المناع في حافظ الاسد: انت الاعظم Haitham al-Mana on Hafiz al-Asad: You are the greatest

تونس – الاخبارية – عالمية – عرب – متابعات الاخبارية

في مقال مزلزل , تجدونه في الرابط اسفل المقال , بمناسبة ذكرى رحيل الرئيس السابق حافظ الاسد اعلن القيادي السوري المعارض والحقوقي هيثم المناع عن خيبة امله من الثورة الحادثة في بلاده. وعبر عن تحسره لوقوعها اصلا مؤكدا ان خيارات الرئيس الراحل الذي وصفه ب“الاعظم” هي الاعمق والانسب في ادارة الشان السوري ( مقال هيثم المناع)… ولئن لم يكن ما صرح به هيثم المناع جديدا من حيث السخط على ما وصلت اليه الاوضاع في سوريا والتعبير عن الخيبة من ثورة علق عليها العديدون امالا كثيرة ,والتأكيد على ان نظريات الديمقراطية وحقوق الانسان بالمفهوم الغربي لا تتناسب مع الحالة الراهنة للمجتمعات العربية التي ما زالت تحتاج الى انساق الزعامة والمستبد المستنير العادل …مع ان مثل هذا الموقف من الشائع المألوف عند فئات عديدة عربية وغير عربية , فان اهمية ما قاله المناع تتأتى من الجوانب التالية

اولا هو مثقف عربي درس الطب وعلوم الاجتماع ومتحصل على الدكتوراه في الانتروبولوجيا , كما الف العديد من الكتب والدراسات واشتغل مع عدة مؤسسات عالمية لحقوق الانسان والمجتمع المدني …وبالتالي فهو منطقيا يستند في نظرته وتقييمه للاشياء الى تجربة قيمة و كفاءة بحثية وعمق اكاديمي لا يستهان به

ثانيا انه احد القياديين السياسيين المشرفين على الثورة السورية , انخرط عن قرب في مطابخها الداخلية واطلع على خوافيها وما يدور حولها لا سيما وهو الذي تقلد خطة رئيس هيئة الانفاذ المعارضة .

ثالثا , وهذا هام جدا حسب عديد المتابعين , وهو ان ما قاله هيثم المناع لا ينطبق على الحالة السورية فحسب , بل يستقيم مع اكثر من وضع من اوضاع ثورات بلدان الربيع العربي على غرار الحالتين الليبية واليمنية تحديدا ثم الحالة التونسية الاقل هلاكا نسبيا رغم تعثرها الواضح..

لاشك ان العناصر السالفة الذكر تجعل مما كتبه هيثم المناع (وهو صديق مقرب للمنصف المرزوقي) اكثر من مجرد ردة فعل غاضبة , او مزاج متعكر من الثورات وارتداداتها..لان القيمة العلمية والاعتبارية للرجل لا تسمح له بذلك ..وهو اكثر مما يردده العوام في السر وفي الجهر..فيفهم منه اذن محاولة اولى من نوعها لنقد ذاتي , لا شك انه سيهز النخب القاعدة التي تقف عليها النخب الفكرية والسياسية الجديدة في بلاد ما يسمى ب”الربيع العربي”

اضغط على الرابط :

(انقلاب ب180 درجة) – شاهد ماذا كتب ابرز معارض سوري في الاسد :”انت الاعظم”

تونس-الاخبارية-عرب-نزاعات-رصد

كتب د. هيثم المناع احد ابرز معارضي النظام السوري و رئيس هيئة الانفاذ المعارضة بذكرى رحيل حافظ الأسد النص التالي

img
 رسالة إلى حافظ الأسد من كاره للنظام

بعد كل ما جرى .. وبعد التعرف على شعبي السوري .. وعلى مثقفيه وفئاته وحدود تفكيرها..أقر أنا الكاره السابق للنظام.. و الهارب من الخوف والذل.. والعائد إليه لاحقا بإرادتي.. أن حافظ الأسد أعظم رجل في التاريخ السوري..فهو أفهم من الأدباء والمثقفين بأنفسهم.. أدرى من المتدينين بربهم وأعلم من الخونة… والقتلة بما في صدورهم.

حافظ الأسد عرف السوريين جيدا.. وعرف أفضل طريقة ممكنة لسياستهم ..فحاسب كلا كما يستحق تماما بحسب أثره في المجتمع دون أدنى ظلم..عرف كيف يرضي المتدينين ويضحك على عقولهم ويكسبهم..أجبر الدين أن يبقى حيث يجب أن يبقى.. في البيت والجامع..فلا يخرج إلى الحياة السياسية.. وأشرك بالمقابل كل الطوائف في الحكم

طهر الأرض من المجرمين والقتلة.. وجفف منابعهم الطائفية بالقوة..وكسب البيئات الدينية المعتدلة التي تسمح لغيرها بالحياة..و إندمج فيها فأحبته من قلبها وأغلبها لا تزال مخلصة له حتى الآن

لم أكن عرف ما هي الطائفية على أيامه و قضيت أغلب سني عمري لا أجرؤ على التلفظ بأسماء الطوائف حتى بيني وبين نفسي..كم كان ذلك جميلا .. أن يقمع رجل عظيم الشر الكامن فينا حتى قبل أن ينبت

عرف نوعية المثقفين لديه.. فعامل كل منهم كما يستحق..إحترم بعضهم وقال له أفكارك لا تنفع هنا فاص

مت أو ارحل وعد متى شئت..مثل نزار قباني والماغوط وممدوح عدوان وأدونيس..ومن لم يفهم أو كان حالما وربما كان سيستسبب بالبلبلة فقد جنى على نفسه وسجن حتى لو كان من طائفته فلا فرق عند هذا الرجل العادل.. مثل عارف دليلة وعبد العزيز الخير و مئات أخرين

ميز المثقفين الطائفيين والحاقدين المخربين للمجتمع كما أثبت الزمن اللاحق فسجنهم..و  إن لم يكونوا قد استحقوا سجنهم وقتها -و لا أعتقد – فقد استحقوه بجدارة لاحقا..مثل ياسين الحج صالح وميشيل كيلو وحازم نهار وفايز سارة ولؤي حسين وأمثالهم

طوع المثقفين الدنيئين الذين يبحثون عن مستأجر..ووجد لهم عملا يتعيشون منه طالما هم تحت الحذاء..حيث مكانهم المستحق.. مثل حكم البابا وعلي فرزات وأمثالهم

إهتم بالفنانين والشعراء السوريين والعرب الذين يستحقون الاهتمام ..مثل مصطفى نصري والجواهري والرحباني. وغيرهم

حصر الدعارة في أماكن مخصصة لها بدل أن تنتشر في الشوارع والمقاهي وأماكن العمل والصحف

عرف كيف يستقر الحكم ويتوازن دون مشاكل .. استعمل الوطني كالشرع ..والوطنيين المؤلفة قلوبهم..أي من يحتاج للمال حتى يبقوا وطنيين كخدام والزعبي وأمثالهم

أطعم الفاسدين بميزان دقيق.. وصرامة.. فكانوا لا يجرؤون على القضم أكثر مما يسمح لهم..أرضى التجار والعائلات الكبيرة

كان رجلا ترتعد له فرائص أعدائه وأصدقائه في الداخل والخارج.. فحكم أطول مدة في التاريخ السوري الحديث

كان حافظ الأسد الحل الأمثل لسورية مع الأخذ بعين الاعتبار طبيعة الشعب وثقافته وظروف البلد والأخطار المحيطة به..فبنى سورية الأمن والأمان..سورية المنيعة في مواجهة أعدائها.. سورية المدارس والمستشفيات المجانية .. سورية السلع المدعومة ..سورية الفقر الموزع بالتساوي بين الجميع.. ولو كان الغنى ممكنا لوزعه بالتساوي..عاش بسيطا فقيرا.. ومات فقيرا لا يملك شيئا..

كان رجال دولته يتمتعون بالنساء والمال والاستجمام في أجمل مناطق العالم وهو يعيش في شقته المتواضعة.. لا يفكر إلا بمصلحة الشعب.

عرف كيف يضع حذائه في فم إسرائيل والغرب وأعوانهم ملك الأردن وعرب البعير والميليشيات اللبنانية..

عادى عرفات والسادات وكل من فرط بشبر من أرض فلسطين

ضبط الميليشيات الفلسطينية بالقوة و بنى مقاومة لبنانية و دعم الفلسطينية ووجهما تجاه العدو و بنى توازن رعب يعمل الأعداء وعملاؤهم في الدخل والخارج منذ سنوات على تفكيكهما..

بنى لسورية قيمة أكبر من مساحتها وقدراتها قبل أن ينقض عليها أعداؤه بعد مماته لاعنين روحه

فعل كل ذلك باللين والحب عندما كان ينفع.. وبالشدة والبطش تارة أخرى

لا يزال كارهوه يخشونه حتى الآن..لن يستطيعوا هزيمته في رؤوسهم.. ومهما حدث سيبقى ذلا أبديا لهم.. لن يستطيعوا تجاوزه..

كثير كثير .. لا مجال يتسع لتعداد مناقب هذا العظيم العظيم..كان رجل دولة من أرفع طراز.. لا يتكرر إلا كل بضعة قرون

أقول هذا.. أنا مناصر الإنسانية والحريات وحقوق الإنسان..بعد تجربتي مع شعبي السوري ومثقفيه وموالاته ومعارضته..لاقتناعي أن سياسة حافظ الأسد هي السياسة الأمثل التي تخفف الألم السوري الكلي إلى حده الأدنى..والدليل ما يحدث الآن

وأعلن أني مستعد للعيش في سورية تحت حكم رجل مثله بغض النظر عن طائفته طالما أنه على عهده لا يجوع فقير ولا يجرؤ أحد على استباحة دم أحد .. ولا تستطيع الكلاب أن تفلت في الشوارع

تعلم أنك ولدت في المكان الخطأ والزمن الخطأ بين الناس الخطأ.. عش بسلام كما يليق بك بين الانبياء

هيثم مناع

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Comparisons that reveal the magnitude of change in Syria مقارنات تكشف حجم التغيير في سورية

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Since the beginning of the international and regional efforts for a political solution in Syria, the magnitude of the roles of the regional and the international allies of the Syrian two opposite teams, the country, and the formations of the political and the military opposition groups reflect the outcome of the field balances of powers between these two teams on one hand, and the ruling balances of the international and regional equations and its variables on the other hand. At the beginning of the efforts was Geneva Statement in 2012 where Iran was absent, or more exactly it was excluded, while the presence of the hostile allies to Syrian country was dominant, until almost the presence of Russia and China was insignificant among this hostile crowd. This meeting which was held on May 20, 2012 has included each of the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the Secretary-General of the Arab League, in addition to the Foreign Ministers of the Soviet Union, Turkey, China, France, Qatar ( the Chairman of the Arab League to follow up the situation in Syria), Iraq ( the Chairman of the summit conference of the Arab League ), Kuwait ( the Head of the Foreign Ministers Council of the Arab League), the United Kingdom, the Northern Ireland, United States, and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and the Security policy) as working group for Syria led by the Common Special Envoy of the United Nations and the Arab League for Syria, the ratio of the friends of Syria to its opponents is three of thirteen, it means less than a quarter. The absence of Iran was not inadvertently, but it was a political decision.

At the meeting which was held after four years and a half on 20 December 2016 in Moscow and has included the Foreign and the Defense Ministers of Russia, Turkey, and Iran and which ended with a document for a political solution. The ratio of the friends of Syria comparing with its opponent is two-thirds; the absence of Saudi Arabia was not inadvertently, but it was a political decision.

In the negotiations of Geneva which the preparation for them was at the end of 2013 and which have been held in early of 2014 which mean exactly two years ago, the United Nations has sent an invitation to Iran after vigorous Russian interferences to participate in the opening session of the conference, then the Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon has withdrawn it. The Foreign Minister of Russia does not have but the objection and to accept the fait accompli to participate despite that provocation. It was issued a Saudi public statement to exclude Iran. On  January 20, 2014 the Saudi authorities announced that they refused the participation of Iran in “Geneva Conference-2-” which aimed to discuss the Syrian crisis, because Tehran has refused the item of forming a transitional government, because it has affiliated forces that fight with the Syrian regime. The official News Agency has reported the saying of an official source” the public approval on the invitation terms is by announcing officially and publically the acceptance of the terms, at their forefront forming a transitional government for the authorities, while Iran did not announce that position, so it was not qualified to attend, especially, because it has military forces that fight side by side with the forces of the regime.

In the preparation for the negotiations of Astana, Russia and Turkey have announced the desire to include new participants to sponsor the political process, among the concerned is Saudi Arabia. Iran refused the participation of Saudi Arabia, and has announced at the spokesman of its Defense Minister on December 28, 2016 that Saudi Arabia is not allowed to participate in the Peace Process in the Syrian Republic. The Russian media agency has reported on Tuesday that the statements of Dehghan have been issued during an interview with (Russia Today) the Russian TV Channel, It was reported that Dehghan said that the insistence of Saudi Arabia on the resignation of the President Bashar Al-Assad means that Riyadh must not participate in the Syrian future peace talks.

A year ago, when the Russian President Vladimir announced that he sent his troops to Syria to drop the slogan of overthrowing the regime and to impose an equation its basis is the priority of the war on terrorism, as well as a Syrian Syrian political solution through which the Syrians resort to the ballot boxes, many has mocked at his words.

Now after a year of his words the President Putin ratified on the first serious agreement to cease-fire and to start the political track among the important factions which are sponsored by Turkey in the fighting field. The Syrian government excludes ISIS and Al Nusra front, while Washington is absent from the scene, its President Barack Obama is preparing himself to depart after he defined several and repetitive deadlines for the departure of the Syrian President, he has warned Moscow repeatedly from the failure which it will reap because of its involvement in the Syrian war. The new President is preparing himself to assume power. He says that his priority is the cooperation with the Russian President, and that the issue of overthrowing the regime and toppling the Syrian President is not an issue that concerns the Americans, wondering why not to cooperate with him as long as our priority is fighting the terrorism and he is fighting the terrorism.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

مقارنات تكشف حجم التغيير في سورية

ناصر قنديل

– منذ بدأت المساعي الدولية والإقليمية لحلّ سياسي في سورية كانت أحجام أدوار الحلفاء الإقليميين والدوليين للفريقين السوريين المتقابلين، الدولة وتشكيلات الجماعات المعارضة السياسية والعسكرية، تعكس حاصل موازين القوى الميدانية بين هذين الفريقين من جهة، والموازين الحاكمة للمعادلات الدولية والإقليمية ومتغيّراتها. ففي بداية المساعي كان بيان جنيف قي عام 2012، وقد كانت إيران غائبة عنه، والأصحّ  مغيّبة، وكان حلفاء الجماعات المعادية للدولة السورية طاغية على الحضور، حتى يكاد يبدو حضور روسيا والصين هزيلاً وسط هذا الحشد المعادي، فقد ضمّ الاجتماع الذي عقد في 20 أيار 2012 كلاً من الأمين العام للأمم المتحدة والأمين العام لجامعة الدول العربية ووزراء خارجية الاتحاد الروسي وتركيا والصين وفرنسا وقطر رئيسة لجنة جامعة الدول العربية لمتابعة الوضع في سورية والعراق رئيس مؤتمر قمة جامعة الدول العربية والكويت رئيسة مجلس وزراء الخارجية التابع لجامعة الدول العربية والمملكة المتحدة وإيرلندا الشمالية والولايات المتحدة وممثلة الاتحاد الأوروبي السامية للشؤون الخارجية والسياسة الأمنية، بوصفهم مجموعة العمل من أجل سورية، برئاسة المبعوث الخاص المشترك للأمم المتحدة وجامعة الدول العربية لسورية، ونسبة الأصدقاء للدولة السورية من خصومها هنا هي ثلاثة من ثلاثة عشر أيّ أقلّ من الربع، ولم يكن غياب إيران سهواً بل قرار سياسي.

– في الاجتماع الذي عُقد بعد أربع سنوات ونصف في 20 كانون الأول 2016 في موسكو وضمّ وزراء الخارجية والدفاع في روسيا وتركيا وإيران والذي انتهى بوثيقة للحلّ السياسي، وحلّ بذلك مكان اجتماع جنيف النسبة لأصدقاء الدولة السورية قياساً بخصومها هي الثلثان، ولم يكن الغياب السعودي سهواً بل قرار سياسي.

– في مفاوضات جنيف التي بدأ التمهيد لها نهاية 2013 وعقدت مطلع العام 2014 أيّ قبل سنتين تماماً، وجهت الأمم المتحدة بعد مداخلات روسية حثيثة بطاقة دعوة إلى إيران، للمشاركة في الجلسة الافتتاحية للمؤتمر لم يلبث أن سحبها الأمين العام بان كي مون، ولم يكن بيد وزير خارجية روسيا سوى الاعتراض وقبول الأمر الواقع بالمشاركة، رغم هذا الاستفزاز، وصدر بيان سعودي علني يدعو لاستبعاد إيران. ففي 20 كانون الثاني 2014 أعلنت السلطات السعودية أنها ترفض مشاركة إيران في مؤتمر «جنيف – 2» الهادف لبحث الأزمة السورية بسبب رفض طهران شرط تشكيل حكومة انتقالية ولوجود «قوات تابعة لها تحارب مع النظام السوري»». ونقلت وكالة الأنباء الرسمية عن مصدر مسؤول قوله إنّ «الموافقة العلنية على شروط الدعوة هو أن يعلن رسمياً وعلنياً عن قبول الشروط وأولها إنشاء حكومة انتقالية للسلطات، أما إيران فلم تعلن عن هذا الموقف مما لا يؤهّلها للحضور خاصة أنّ لها قوات عسكرية تحارب جنباً إلى جنب مع قوات النظام».

– في التمهيد لمفاوضات أستانة أعلنت روسيا وتركيا الرغبة بضمّ مشاركين جدد لرعاية المسار السياسي، ومن ضمن المعنيين السعودية، فأعلنت إيران رفض مشاركة السعودية، فأعلنت إيران بلسان وزير دفاعها يوم 28 كانون الأول 2016 أنه يجب عدم السماح بمشاركة السعودية في عملية السلام في الجمهورية السورية، وذكرت وكالة الإعلام الروسية الثلاثاء أنّ تصريحات دهقان جاءت خلال مقابلة مع  قناة «موسكو اليوم» التلفزيونية الروسية. ونقل عن دهقان قوله إنه يعتقد أنّ إصرار السعودية على تنحّي السيد الرئيس بشار الأسد يعني أنه يجب ألا تشارك الرياض في محادثات السلام السورية المستقبلية.

– قبل سنة عندما أعلن الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين أنه جاء بقواته إلى سورية ليسقط شعار إسقاط النظام، وفرض معادلة قوامها أولوية الحرب على الإرهاب وحلّ سياسي سوري سوري، يحتكم فيه السوريون إلى صناديق الاقتراع، سخر الكثيرون من كلامه. وها هو الرئيس بوتين بعد سنة من كلامه، يصادق على أول اتفاقية جدية لوقف النار وبدء مسار سياسي بين الفصائل الوازنة في ميدان القتال التي ترعاها تركيا، والحكومة السورية، تستثني تنظيم داعش وجبهة النصرة، بينما تغيب واشنطن عن المشهد، ويستعدّ رئيسها باراك أوباما للرحيل بعدما حدّد مواعيد متعدّدة ومتكرّرة لرحيل الرئيس السوري، وحذر موسكو مراراً من الفشل الذي ستحصد ثماره بسبب تدخلها في الحرب السورية. ويستعدّ الرئيس الجديد  لتسلّم السلطة وهو يقول إنّ أولويته هي التعاون مع الرئيس الروسي وإنّ قضية تغيير النظام وإسقاط الرئيس السوري ليست قضية تهمّ الأميركيين، متسائلاً: لماذا لا نتعاون معه طالما أولويتنا قتال الإرهاب وهو يقاتل الإرهاب؟

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