هل يجرؤ ترامب على الانسحاب من التفاهم النووي؟

هل يجرؤ ترامب على الانسحاب من التفاهم النووي؟

أكتوبر 11, 2017

ناصر قنديل
هل يجرؤ ترامب على الانسحاب من التفاهم النووي؟– يتفادى الكثيرون الخوض في الإجابة عن هذا السؤال كي لا تأتي التطورات عكس توقعاتهم، ويخسرون بعضاً من المصداقية والثقة التي راكموها لدى قراء ومتابعين، خصوصاً في ظلّ المواقف التصعيدية التي يطلقها الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب تجاه إيران والتفاهم حول ملفها النووي، مبشّراً بنهاية عهد هذا التفاهم الذي دأب على وصفه بالأسوأ. وفيما لا يستبعد كثيرون أن يقدم ترامب على هذه الخطوة واضعاً العلاقات الدولية والإقليمية أمام ما أسماه بالعاصفة المقبلة، يستبعد كثيرون أن يكون لدى إيران النية والقدرة على ردود قوية تصعيدية، سواء إذا أقدم ترامب على إلغاء الاتفاق أو على وضع عقوبات على الحرس الثوري الإيراني، واضعين التهديدات الإيرانية في دائرة عضّ الأصابع والحرب النفسية.

– الأكيد أنّ ترامب لن يجرؤ على الإعلان عن إلغاء الاتفاق أولاً، لأنّ صلاحيته لا تطال هذا الإعلان، وما يملكه هو الطلب للكونغرس إبطال قانون التصديق على الاتفاقية إذا أراد الانسحاب منها. وهذا يخضع بالنتيجة لتوازنات لا يتحكم بها ترامب وفريقه المنقسم حول الموقف أصلاً، ورغم هذه الصلاحية التي تقع دون مستوى الإلغاء، لكنها تضع ترامب في موضع المنسحب من الاتفاق ملقياً المسؤولية على الكونغرس، فترامب لن يستعملها، بل سيبحث عن مناورة تظهره كغاضب من الاتفاق من دون التورّط بالدعوة للانسحاب منه، وذلك عبر التقيّد بحدود ما ينصّ عليه قانون تصديق الكونغرس على الاتفاق، من طلب تقرير سنوي من الإدارة يشير إلى درجة تقيّد إيران بموجباتها بالاتفاق، فيقول إنّ إيران تتقيّد بالموجبات الحرفية التي نصّ عليها الاتفاق لكنها لا تطبّق روحيته، وهو لا ينسحب من الاتفاق بل يسحب ثقته بقدرة الاتفاق على منع إيران من امتلاك سلاح نووي، داعياً الكونغرس لمناقشة سبل تحسين الاتفاقية وتحقيق المزيد من الضمانات. وهذا يعني الدخول في مناقشات تمتدّ لمدة ستين يوماً يخرج بحصيلتها الكونغرس بتوصيات لإدارة ترامب، ستتضمّن دعوات من نوع السعي مع الشركاء في الاتفاق وهم الدول الخمس، روسيا والصين وفرنسا وبريطانيا وألمانيا، والأمم المتحدة والوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية والاتحاد الأوروبي، لصياغة تفاهمات أشدّ قوّة وقدرة على إلزام إيران بموجبات جديدة، وبالتوازي السير بنظام عقوبات منفصل لا يخرق منظومة التفاهم النووي، لكنه يلاحق ما تسمّيه واشنطن البرنامج الصاروخي الإيراني، وما يتحدّث عنه ترامب وفريقه تحت عنوان تدخلات إيران في المنطقة، واتهامها بالتسبّب بزعزعة استقرار أنظمة حليفة لواشنطن، وسيحظى حزب الله هنا بالحصة الرئيسة من العقوبات.

– هل سيجرؤ ترامب على الذهاب لعقوبات على الحرس الثوري كمؤسسة بعينها، بعدما كان قد خصّصها لفيلق القدس ضمن الحرس الثوري؟

– لن يجرؤ ترامب على ذلك، بل سيختار منظومة الصواريخ في الحرس، أسوة بما فعله مع فيلق القدس، ويتفادى تحدّي إيران بوضع تهديداتها التي صدرت عن أعلى المستويات الحكومية والعسكرية وصولاً للمرشد الأعلى للجمهورية، كما في حال التفاهم النووي والتهرّب من خسارة أوروبا والوكالة الدولية للطاقة النووية، بإيجاد الالتفاف المناسب الذي لا يؤدّي لإشعال المواجهة الكبرى، ويحفظ لترامب أوراق التوتر والضغط واللعب بها، تحت سقف مواجهات صغيرة ضمن التفاوض الكبير، لأنّ القرارات على مسرح العلاقة مع إيران هي قرارات بحجم الدولة الأميركية وليست من هوامش حركة الرئيس. والدولة الأميركية التي تهرّبت من مواجهة كبرى عنوانها منع حزب الله من الوجود في سورية، خصوصاً على الحدود الجنوبية والشرقية، وهي ترى خطوطها الحمراء تداس، تعلم أنّ فرص مواجهة عنوانها حزب الله أكبر من فرص مواجهة عنوانها الملف النووي الإيراني، والإحجام عن الأقلّ بسبب الضعف يؤكد عدم الإقدام على الأكثر بوهم القدرة، فمن لا يستطيع الأقلّ لا يستطيع الأكثر.

– للموهومين بالقوة الأميركية نقول فلننتظر ونرَ، ومَنْ يعِش يرَ، وإن غداً لناظره قريب!

– كم يشبه موقف ترامب موقف رئيسَيْ إقليمي كردستان وكتالونيا، بالدعوة للاستفتاء على الانفصال ثم استبدال إعلان الاستقلال بالدعوة للحوار، هي الحسابات الخاطئة تورّط أصحابها، مع فارق أنّ ترامب يعيش رئاسته كمعلّق تلفزيوني لا كصانع قرار.

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How Hezbollah Came to Dominate Information Warfare: Israeli Media

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah

Long time ago Hezbollah began significantly investing in propaganda, and laid the groundwork for the effective use of information warfare, which is the ability to gain an advantage over an adversary through the management of information, according to an article published by JPost.

JPost mentioned that Hezbollah operations have long been governed by the mantra,

“If you haven’t captured it on film you haven’t fought.” “The group grasped the importance of documenting its successes as early as 1994 when Hezbollah fighters and a cameraman infiltrated an Israeli military occupation compound in Lebanon and raised a flag inside the base, captured the event on film – and scored a major propaganda coup.”

“Hezbollah maintains a unit solely dedicated to psychological warfare that specializes in burnishing Hezbollah’s public image. Newspapers, social media outlets and television programming comprise Hezbollah’s information warfare portfolio. The group uses its information- related capabilities to advertise its many successes, including summer camps for children and a robust public works program.”

Hezbollah propaganda is well-honed, targeted and specific, and it emphasizes specific themes that include resistance ideology, martyrdom and establishing legitimacy through the provision of social services, according to JPost.

“The history of Hezbollah’s information warfare efforts is perhaps best told through the story of the evolution of its active media arm, Al-Manar, a satellite television station that broadcasts from Beirut and can be seen around the world. After the first broadcast of Al-Manar (The Beacon) in 1991, Hezbollah began regularly scheduled broadcasts three years later and serves a critical role as the main dissemination point for Hezbollah news and propaganda. Hezbollah’s extensive media operation also includes radio stations, print publications and a network of over 50 websites that operate in multiple languages.” “Al-Manar began trying to influence Israeli public opinion by broadcasting actual battlefield footage showing Israeli soldiers being killed and maimed.”

Equally as impressive as Hezbollah’s television and video production is its extensive use of new media and information technologies, including a major Internet presence, the Israeli paper added.

The Zionist paper pointed out that Hezbollah is constantly working to refine its technical capabilities, as evidenced by a move toward faster fiber-optic networks that can enhance the group’s data-streaming capacity and provide a stouter defense against Israeli electronic warfare capabilities.

“Hezbollah not only prevented Israeli units from jamming its networks south of the Litani River in the July 2006 war, it reportedly had equipment in place to jam Israeli radar and communications systems.”

“For operational security reasons, Hezbollah migrated to closed telephone circuits that operate independent of Lebanese government networks. During fighting in the Syrian town of Qusair in 2013, Hezbollah again showed its penchant for operations security by devising a complex system that allowed its fighters to talk freely on open radio communications without having to be too concerned about conversations being intercepted.”

Hezbollah has been a fact of life since the early 1980s and, given the group’s remarkable ability to operate in the information environment, will likely remain the most dominant and capable terrorist group in the Middle East for decades to come, JPost’s article concluded.

SourceIsraeli media

 

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Ensuring The Existence of «Israel» in Hezbollah’s Crosshairs

Ali Haidar

The problem facing “Israel” is that the more its military and technological capabilities develop, the more Hezbollah’s deterrent and defense capabilities advance. The higher the motivation for aggression, the more it clashes with countermeasures that prevent Hezbollah’s capabilities from being liquidated.

"Israel's" Dimona nuclear plant

As a result, the gap between what it wants and what it can achieve is wide. This problematic reality usually provokes some experts and commentators who see a huge difference between what they perceive as enormous capabilities on the part of “Israel” on the one hand, and its decline in the favor of Hezbollah on the other.

The former chairman of the Council of Settlements in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, Israel Harel, pondered over the announcement by Hezbollah’s Secretary-General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on the anniversary of the 2006 victory, during which he labeled Dimona as a target for the rockets of the Resistance. He pointed out that this came after the “Israeli” court ruling, ordering the removal of ammonia containers from Haifa, following the declaration by Sayyed Nasrallah to target it in case of any full-scale aggression on Lebanon.

Harel, a regular columnist for the Haaretz daily, dubbed his article as “The Goal Is Dimona” – describing Dimona as a symbol of “Israel’s” strength and a guarantor of its existence. Thus, he wanted to suggest that this guarantor was in the crosshairs of Hezbollah’s rockets, while the “Israelis” are doing little else aside from threatening. He criticized the “‘Israeli’ acceptance” of the equation that Hezbollah succeeded in imposing because of its missile capabilities. He ridiculed the “response” to the threat posed by the concentration of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, which involved the dispatching of a high security delegation to express concern to the heads of the security establishment in Washington. He criticized the hanging of hopes on this “maniac administration”.

It is clear that Harel sees the political and security contacts with Washington, as an attempt to avoid the aggressive options – employed by “Israel” since 1948 – following the “Israeli” army’s setbacks in Lebanon. He also sees a strategic retreat embodied by “Israeli” recognition – at the level of political and security decision-makers – of the counter-deterrence equation imposed by the Resistance in Lebanon.

The newly retired commander of the “Israeli” Air Force Major General Amir Eshel recently boasted about how “Israel” carried out about 100 attacks in Syria during the last five years. Harel who served as chairman of the Council of Settlements for 15 years described these comments as “the joy of the poor” simply because these attacks failed to prevent the transfer of some 150,000 rockets to Hezbollah. From here, Harel wanted to shed light on the dark side of the “battle between the wars” doctrine declared by “Israel” and aimed at preventing the growth of Hezbollah’s capabilities, since the standard for its success lies in results and implications on the level of capabilities. One of the most significant manifestations of these results is the terror and fear rising inside “Israel” due to the qualitative and quantitative growth of Hezbollah’s capabilities.

The assurances of Eshel and his successor Major General Amikam Norkin that “‘Israel’ has decisive means of retaliation” should Sayyed Nasrallah carry out his threats to attack Dimona, angered Harel. He pointed out that “the first attack is decisive, and could end up with thousands of casualties and serious damage to the security and economic infrastructure.” Therefore, the dilemma that “Israel” faces is: how will it use its ability and will to respond to this level [of threat], keeping in mind repeated “Israeli” threats of the total destruction of Lebanon?

Harel called on “Israel” to refrain from repeating the submission to the equations imposed by Hezbollah, and this time in the Syrian arena. He stressed that “‘Israel’ is prohibited from continuing to recognize long-term strategic changes.” He also warned of repeatedly acknowledging the deployment of the Revolutionary Guards on the borders of “Israel”, Syria and Lebanon, and soon in Gaza, and perhaps even in Jordan, “fearing it would be too late”, especially that “there is no limit to the flexibility of the ‘Israeli’ containment doctrine.”

He also believes that it is reasonable to assume that at this stage there will be no launching of any Iranian missile on “Israel” because it will not take place before the completion of Iran’s “regional hegemony” project in the region. He ridiculed, by implication, the argument that “Israel’s” deterrence power – after the “failed” Second Lebanon War – prevented Hezbollah from firing its rockets into “Israel”. He stressed that what is preventing the party is not this so-called “alleged deterrence”. Despair gripped the right-wing writer as he added that “even when Hezbollah launches thousands of rockets that have been stored, it is doubtful that the government will decide to target civilians or destroy the infrastructure, even when retaliating. For this right is reserved only for its enemies.”

In response to the “Israeli” leadership’s attempt to paint a picture of “national” immunity among the “Israeli” public, Harel pointed out that the problematic reactions of civilians in the north in light of the rocket attacks during the Second Lebanon War and the mass flight on the part of the Negev residents during Hamas’ bombardment [Operation Protective Edge], proved that the internal “Israeli” front possessed a low, troubling ability to respond. Thus, Harel was able to expose the “Israeli” political leadership, which is trying to mitigate its reluctance to act due to the counter-deterrence constraints, particularly after he saw that the performance of the decision-makers involved adopting a policy of containment, following the abandoning of the counterattack and initiation policy since the 1967 war.

According to Harel, “Israel’s” reluctance to neutralize the capabilities of the resistance factions in Gaza by “digging up negative land barriers, with enormous cost and questionable effectiveness” falls within the principle of abandoning the preventive and pre-emptive options policy. “This is the mentality,” he added.

As in every critical approach, “Israeli” writers and experts are keen to create some balance in the picture to avoid repercussions within “Israel”. Thus, Harel concludes, in the event of rockets fired from the north, east and south against “Israel”, the “Israelis” will win this battle, but after the death of tens of thousands within its own ranks!

Source: Al-Akhbar Newspaper, Translated by website team

26-08-2017 | 09:47

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A Job That No «Israeli» Wants, thanks to the Men of Allah

 A Job That No «Israeli» Wants

Darko Lazar

Throughout the summer of 2006, the “Israeli” military command was plagued by indecision, chaos and sheer incompetence.

IOF soldiers


Hezbollah’s successes in delivering powerful, unexpected and precise blows against the invading army threw Tel Aviv completely off-balance and seriously dented “Israeli” morale. The effects on “Israel’s” armed forces quickly became apparent to observers.

“This wasn’t the vaunted ‘Israeli’ force that we saw in previous wars,” one former senior US commander noted at the time.

No zest for the fight

The outcome of the 2006 war shattered the myth of “Israeli” military invincibility – a central component to the psychological warfare in the Arab-“Israeli” conflict.

Among its many military achievements, Hezbollah destroyed the formidable reputation of “Israel’s” Merkava tank – the symbol of “Israeli” military prowess.

In just over a month, 49 of “Israel’s” homemade Merkava tanks were reported damaged or destroyed.

The battles in Lebanon’s valleys left lasting scars on the collective “Israeli” psyche, which would inevitably lead to major transformations within its military ranks.

According to “Israel’s” Maariv newspaper, today’s conscripts are still refusing to serve in the army’s Armored Corps – once the pride and joy of the “Israeli” military.

The 86 soldiers surveyed told the paper that they preferred prison to the Armored Corps, leading the military establishment to admit that one of its major challenges is restoring confidence in the Merkava tank.

But the “Israeli” military command has other challenges, too. The number of “Israelis” refusing to serve altogether is on the rise.

The army’s own statistics showed that in 1997 fewer than one in 10 “Israeli” men avoided their mandatory three-year military service. In the years after the 2006 war that number jumped to three in 10, and as the “Israeli” public becomes more critical of the performance of its armed forces, the number of young men and women avoiding the army is steadily rising.

Meanwhile, in an increasingly desperate search for recruits, the “Israeli” military is resorting to murky methods.

In what is being touted as an initiative to integrate “Israelis” with developmental disabilities into society, the military has recruited over 320 soldiers who suffer from Down Syndrome, autism and other cognitive delays.

The program, which involves placing men and women with disabilities into such a lethal institution, notorious for its human rights abuses, is at the very least inhumane.

But according to the CEO of ‘Special in Uniform’, Mendi Belinitzky, “this is ‘Israel'”.

“They happily do everything that the soldiers don’t like to do, and we don’t even have to ask them,” Belinitzky told the Jerusalem Post. “They have more motivation than other soldiers and don’t want to go home, whereas the other soldiers count each moment until they can go home on the weekends.”

Prostitution, drugs and criminal records 

As the number of “Israelis” willing to take up arms dwindles, the number of recruits with criminal records is climbing.

An investigation into a physical assault case at an Air Force base in 2015 revealed that thousands of “Israeli” soldiers committed crimes before their military service, ranging from drug offenses and theft to more violent crimes.

The investigation also found that the “Israeli” army had taken in recruits who had a history of violent physical offenses.

The army attempted to justify the practice by claiming that military service offered a second chance to troubled youths.

However, statistics tell a very different story.

Earlier this year, the Knesset Subcommittee on Combating Human Trafficking and Prostitution revealed that the “Israeli” military has no idea about the extent of prostitution among its soldiers.Data from the “Israeli” Labor and Social Services Ministry found that hundreds of soldiers are involved in prostitution, which brings in an estimated USD 300 million annually across “Israel”.

Meanwhile, “Israel’s” Military Prosecutor announced plans late last year to permit soldiers to smoke marijuana, as long as they’re off-duty when they do so.

The announcement comes as the number of indictments for drug offenses within the “Israeli” military spiked in recent years, culminating in criminal charges being brought against hundreds of soldiers annually.

According to the Haaretz newspaper, 629 soldiers were prosecuted in 2014 alone.

The “Israeli” army – already known to be infested with narcotics – is attempting to change the legal process involving drugs in the hope that the growing number of prosecutions does not tarnish its image further.

An army of mercenaries

During the 2014 Gaza war, the number of “Israeli” soldiers killed in action rose quickly. Most became little more than statistics. Few paid attention to their names or where they came from.

But a closer look reveals that a number of those killed were so-called ‘lone soldiers’ – a term used to describe foreigners who join the “Israeli” army.

Most are recruited by organizations specializing in bringing people to “Israel”. One of these groups is Sar-El, which has branches in many western capitals. A lot of the men and women recruited are non-“Israeli” Jews, many of them American.

“Anyone who loves Israel should volunteer for the IDF through Sar-El. There can be no more meaningful way to support Israel.”– MK Rabbi Dov Lipman (center row, 4th from left

Through the use of clandestine networks, social media, websites and the press, organizations like Sar-El attract people to take part in a variety of programs associated with the “Israeli” military.

Thousands of these foreigners end up serving in the army – the vast majority as paid “Israeli” soldiers on the front line.

The 2006 defeat, combined with years of cutbacks and more importantly soldiers lacking any real motivation and operational experience, produced a withered version of the “Israeli” military.

This new force is not only becoming increasingly reliant on importing its manpower but is also beset by a growing number of highly demoralized and often undisciplined recruits.

Source: Al-Ahed News

26-08-2017 | 08:56

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The psychological warfare is a war plan not a luxury or a slyness الحرب النفسية خطّة حرب لا ترفاً ولا حذاقة

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The psychological warfare is a war plan not a luxury or a slyness

أغسطس 21, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Lebanese resistance especially the resistance of Hezbollah in the person of its leader Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah has established a school that combines the field war and the psychological warfare, the field deterrence and the psychological deterrence, it has proved its effectiveness at different stations by achieving results that are still valid in making balances for the real forces and the hidden ones which rule the conflict between the resistance and Israel, while many people strive to get the rules of the psychological warfare which pursued by the resistance in order to follow them, but they miss that they are not luxury of academic researchers and they are not  slyness that its features and rulers were set by professional artists but these rules form costly war plan that completes the process of the war once and prior to its process many times, but in every time it has the same cost.

It is a sign of proudest to the resistance and its leader that the Israeli leadership at all the political, military, security, judicial and financial levels ratifies the decision of dismantling the ammonia containers in Haifa in response to the threat of the leader of the resistance as one of the goals of the coming war, as the equation of “Israel is weaker than the cobweb” was one of the titles of the war of July 2006. This equation was launched in the year 2000 during the speech of AL Sayyed Nasrollah from the square of Bint Jbeil, so one of the goals of the war of July is to reach the same square and to put the Israeli flag on the platform from where Al Sayyed Nasrollah talked in order to say Israel is not weaker than the cobweb. But one of the signs of the victory in July is the failure of the Israeli attempt to enter Bint Jbeil and to reach to the platform of the victory and to set the Israeli flag on it.

The cost in the successive episodes of the psychological warfare equations is blood, exhausting efforts, and unlimited preparations, no one dare to say that he will target Ammonia containers but only the one who has the ability to put his threat into effect and to convince his enemy at all his popular and official levels of the credibility of the ability, the seriousness, and the honesty of the implementation of the threat, but before that, the resistance has to put between the hands of those who concerned in decision-making and the public opinion industry of the enemy what make them certain of the honesty, the credibility, and linking the words with the ability and the seriousness of action by having missiles of accurate-injury that are able to destroy, have mobile capabilities in their range, and able to avoid the attempts of repelling them. This means a full war through the exercises of the resistance missiles and the missiles that face the Iron Dome, the banks of opposite objectives and the competing intelligence capacities in reaching more of information, as well as the accuracy in the survey of data. Therefore the psychological war becomes an incentive for a war that has not occurred but it requires blood and capacities that are consumed by a full war.

The equation of ” Israel is weaker than the cobweb” has been put in the year 2000 but it was proven in the year 2006, and the equation of  “we are the people who do not leave our detainees in prisons” has been put in 2001 and it was proven after the war of July 2006 with the setting free of the detainees. Till one of the Israeli Generals of the war during the investigations of Winograd, said that if in the coming war we have the opportunity to get detainees of Hezbollah we have to avoid that, because this will lead us to another war and maybe it will occur in unfavorable circumstances.

The equation of “You want it an open war so let it be” and ” Haifa and beyond beyond Haifa” and the equation of ” we have a lot of surprises for you” all would be valueless if the resistance was not prepared for each one of them a plan that is able to be translated in the field, the ability to wage the open war which the resistance showed in the war of July, the reach of its missiles to beyond beyond Haifa towards the beginning of the war by the surprise of destroying the battleship Saar directly on air in conjunction with the speech of Al Sayyed Nasrollah.

The equation of the war on Syria was ” you will repent of the bet of exhausting us, we will get out of this war stronger, nothing will renounce us from our task against you, what has been prepared for you is accumulating despite the war on Syria” this equation has been proven by the recognition of the Israelis today about the growing force of Hezbollah, Most importantly is that in their consciousness and unconsciousness the equation of the decision of the war on Syria entitled ” we will be where we should be” the Israelis apply it on a comparison of surpassing the borders towards Syria and its moving later towards Palestine, so they will conclude the seriousness of threat through the ground crossing to Galilee or to Golan or to both of them . Now they are making calculated, geographic, and military projections of the military operation of Juroud Aral in each of Shabaa Farms and Golan Heights.

In the speech of victory, Al Sayyed Nasrollah was inspired by dismantling Ammonia containers; so he said: think of Dimona because it is more dangerous, this phrase occupied the headlines of newspapers and the TV channels, it started to turn into an equation of the next psychological warfare. Its historic and strategic importance is that it afflicts the Israeli military ideology which was founded by Ben-Gurion on the basis of the theory of possessing every deadly weapons in compensation for the lack of the opportunities of waging equivalent wars with the armies of the region by Israel due to geography. The nuclear bomb was the goal of Ben-Gurion to protect Israel. Today the Israeli experts have a logic that shows that the narrow geographic range imposes on Israel to get rid of the nuclear and the chemical weapons because their targeting will be a disaster on Israel which it will not be able to use them in any future war.

A resistance makes equations because it makes war, because it was founded and it continues its process with honesty and credibility. Its war’s plan is the origin of its psychological warfare. The one who puts its plans is its leader.  Here his charm and excellence lie due to the feature of honesty, credibility, the symbolism of war and victory, and the alternation between the words and deeds and between a war and another.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

الحرب النفسية خطّة حرب لا ترفاً ولا حذاقة

ناصر قنديل

أغسطس 15, 2017

– خطت المقاومة اللبنانية، خصوصاً مقاومة حزب الله بشخص قائدها السيد حسن نصرالله معالم مدرسة تزاوج بين الحرب الميدانية والحرب النفسية، وردع ميداني يتزاوج مع الردع النفسي، وأثبتت فعاليتها في محطّات مختلفة بتحقيق نتائج لا تزال تفعل فعلها في صناعة موازين القوى الحقيقية والخفية الحاكمة للصراع بين المقاومة و»إسرائيل». وفيما يجهد الكثيرون لاستخلاص قواعد مدرسة الحرب النفسية التي تنتهجها المقاومة، تمهيداً لاستعارتها يفوتهم أنها ليست ترفاً قام به باحثون أكاديميون، ولا حذاقة أعدّ معالمها وقواعدها فنانون محترفون، بل هي خطة حرب مكلفة متمّمة لفعل الحرب نفسها مرة وسابقة لفعلها مرات، لكنها في كلّ مرة بكلفة الحرب نفسها.

– أليس مدعاة للفخر للمقاومة وسيّدها، قيام القيادة «الإسرائيلية» بمستوياتها السياسية والعسكرية والأمنية والقضائية والمالية كافة بالتصديق على قرار تفكيك مستوعبات الأمونيا في حيفا، كتداعٍ لحملة انطلقت مع تهديد سيد المقاومة بجعلها هدفاً من أهداف الحرب المقبلة، بمثل ما كانت معادلة «إسرائيل» أوهن من بيت العنكبوت واحدة من عناوين الحرب في تموز 2006، وهي معادلة انطلقت في العام 2000 من خطاب النصر للسيد نصرالله من ساحة بنت جبيل، وصار أحد أهداف حرب تموز بلوغ الساحة نفسها وزرع العلم «الإسرائيلي»، حيث كانت منصة السيد نصرالله للقول، لا ليست «إسرائيل» أوهن من بيت العنكبوت، وكان من علامات النصر في تموز فشل المحاولة «الإسرائيلية» بدخول بنت جبيل وبلوغ نقطة منصة خطاب النصر وزرع العلم «الإسرائيلي» فيها.

– في الحلقات المتتالية لمعادلات الحرب النفسية تكون الكلفة دماء وجهوداً مضنية واستعدادات لا حدّ لها، فلا يملك القول باستهداف مستوعبات الأمونيا مَن لا يملك القدرة على وضع تهديده موضع التنفيذ، وإقناع عدوّه بمستوياته الشعبية والرسمية كافة بمصداقية القدرة والجدية والصدق في تنفيذ التهديد، وقبل قول ذلك كان على المقاومة أن تضع بين أيدي المعنيين في مستويات القرار وصناعة الرأي العام لدى العدو ما يجعلهم على يقين من الصدق والمصداقية في القول وربط القول بقدرة وجدّية الفعل، بامتلاك صواريخ دقيقة الإصابة، قادرة على التدمير، متحرّكة القدرات في مداها، قادرة على تفادي محاولات صدّها. وهذا يعني حرباً كاملة، في تمارين صواريخ المقاومة وتمارين مقابلة للقبة الحديدية، وبنوك الأهداف المتقابلة والقدرات الاستخبارية المتسابقة في بلوغ المزيد من المعلومات والدقة في مسح المعطيات، فتصير الحرب النفسية كتلة عصبية متحفزة أنتجتها حرب لم تقع، لكنها استدعت العرق والدماء والقدرات التي تستهلكها حرب كاملة.

– معادلة «إسرائيل» أوهن من بيت العنكبوت وضعت عام 2000 لكنها تثبّتت عام 2006، ومعادلة نحن قوم لا نترك أسرانا في السجون وضعت عام 2001، لكنها تثبّتت بعد حرب تموز 2006 مع تحرير الأسرى، حتى قال أحد جنرالات الحرب «الإسرائيليين» في تحقيقات فينوغراد، إذا تسنّى لنا في حرب مقبلة أن نحصل على أسرى لحزب الله، فعلينا تفادي ذلك، لأننا نجلب على أنفسنا حرباً مقبلة ربما تقع في ظروف غير مؤاتية.

– معادلة أردتموها حرباً مفتوحة، فلتكن حرباً مفتوحة، وحيفا وما بعد ما بعد حيفا، ومعادلة خبأنا لكم الكثير من المفاجآت، كلها ما كانت لها قيمة لو لم تكن المقاومة قد أعدّت لكلّ واحدة منها خطة قادرة على ترجمتها في الميدان، مقدّرة خوض الحرب المفتوحة التي أظهرتها المقاومة في حرب تموز، على بلوغ صواريخها حيفا وما بعد حيفا وما بعد ما بعد حيفا، وصولاً إلى ما كانت عليه بداية الحرب مفاجأة تدمير البارجة «ساعر» على الهواء بالتزامن مع خطاب السيد نصرالله.

– معادلة الحرب في سورية كانت، ستندمون على رهان استنزافنا، فسنخرج من هذه الحرب أشدّ قوة، ولن تصرفنا عنكم فما أعدّ لكم يزداد ويتراكم، رغم الحرب في سورية، معادلة ثبتت باعترافات «الإسرائيليين» اليوم عن تعاظم قوة حزب الله، والأهمّ منها في وعيهم ولا وعيهم معادلة قرار الحرب في سورية وعنوانها سنكون حيث يجب أن نكون، ويقيسها «الإسرائيليون» على مقارنة تخطّي الحدود نحو سورية وتخطّيها لاحقاً نحو فلسطين، فيستخلصون التحسّب لجدية التهديد بالعبور البري إلى الجليل أو إلى الجولان، أو لكليهما، وها هم يقومون بإسقاطات حسابية وجغرافية وعسكرية لعملية جرود عرسال على كلّ من مزارع شبعا والجولان.

حاويات الامونيا

– في خطاب النصر مرّر السيد نصرالله عبارة من وحيّ تفكيك حاويات الأمونيا مضمونها، فكّروا بديمونا فهو أخطر. وهي تحتلّ عناوين الصحف والقنوات التلفزيونية، وقد بدأت تتحوّل إلى معادلة الحرب النفسية المقبلة، وأهميتها التاريخية والاستراتيجية، أنها تصيب العقيدة العسكرية «الإسرائيلية» التي أسّسها بن غوريون على نظرية امتلاك كلّ سلاح فتاك تعويضاً عن قصور الجغرافيا في منح «إسرائيل» فرص خوض حرب متكافئة مع جيوش المنطقة، فكانت القنبلة النووية هدف بن غوريون لحماية «إسرائيل»،

واليوم يسود الخبراء «الإسرائيليين» منطق يقول إنّ المدى الجغرافي الضيّق يفرض على «إسرائيل» التخلص من السلاحين النووي والكيميائي، لأنّ استهدافهما سيجعلهما وبالاً على «إسرائيل» التي لن تستطيع استعمالهما في أي حرب مقبلة.

– مقاومة تصنع المعادلات، لأنها تصنع الحرب، ولأنها تأسّست وتواصل مسيرتها بصدق ومصداقية، خطة حربها هي أصل حربها النفسية، وواضع الخطتين قائدها، وهنا مكمن سحره وتفوّقه بما يختزن من خصال الصدق والمصداقية ومن رمزية الحرب والنصر، وتراكم التناوب بين القول والفعل وبين حرب وحرب.

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‘Israeli’ Company Head To Head with Hezbollah in Social Media Wars

Fearing the list of advised equipments Hezbollah supporters suggested the ‘Israelis’ will need in the next war, an ‘Israeli’ web-design company involved itself in a social media war against the resistance movement.

The company, based in Kiryat Shmona, to the north of occupied Palestine, launched an online campaign against Hezbollah resistance movement after social media activists threatened ‘Israel’ that “the next war is approaching.”

Social Media War

‘Your ships will be attacked with rockets’

Social Media War

Sneakers ‘for a quick escape’

Last week, Hezbollah supporters mounted on social media a campaign entitled ‘Time for the Victory’ in which ‘Israelis’ are cynically advised about “equipment you should have for the next war.”

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‘To keep your composure’

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‘Ammonia plants are attacked with rockets’

The pictures of the equipment include, inter alia, relaxation pills “in order to keep your composure”, sneakers “for a quick escape”, gas masks for when “ammonia plants are attacked with rockets” and a torch for when “electricity plants are attacked with rockets.”

Social Media War

‘For when electricity plants are attacked with rockets’

The campaign sparked responses in the Zionist entity, including one from the company Web Yourself, which responded with its own Hebrew and Arabic offensive entitled: “What awaits Hezbollah in the next war.”

Social Media War

‘Our rockets will teach you that no dome will rise above Palestine, only the Dome of the Rock’

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‘Our rockets will destroy your ships. The sea will bear witness to that’

Source: News Agencies, Edited by website team

18-08-2017 | 13:28

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Washington: Is the protection of Israel from Hezbollah by the remaining of ISIS? واشنطن: حماية «إسرائيل» من حزب الله ببقاء داعش؟

Washington: Is the protection of Israel from Hezbollah by the remaining of ISIS?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

يوليو 2, 2017واشنطن: حماية «إسرائيل» من حزب الله ببقاء داعش؟

Perhaps it is one of the strangest and the rudest conclusions which revealed by the US elites that surround the decision-making circuits in the administration of the President Donald Trump, they were spread on the sites of the studies-centers as summaries of research workshops, then in the newspapers as conclusions of probable risks, then they were leaked to the British newspapers and around which the analyses were published. The common between them is the sequence in dealing with the regional scene, which says that the moment of the bet on overthrowing Syria has gone forever and that the Russian and the Iranian presence put versus this goal a comprehensive war which America is unable to wage, and that the imposing of new equation in Syria controlled by America through the Kurdish forces in the north and the forces which locate in Jordan in the south, and sharing the Syrian-Iraqi borders has fallen too. The next battle with ISIS has become in Deir Al Zour not in Mosul or Raqqa, Moreover, the important presence will be for the Syrian- Russian-Iranian along with Hezbollah and the Popular Crowd. So the issue became to answer the question; who will inherit the legacy of ISIS?

The same logic which is not generalized yet says that only Syria and its war can say the final word in the paths of the US engagement with Russia about the international policies, and that the paths of the situation in the Middle East in which Turkey has become outside the US sponsorship, and where Israel and Saudi Arabia have become in a critical situation in front of any Iranian coming victory in Syria, moreover any growing of the force of Hezbollah and a liberation from the burdens of the fight against ISIS and the other formations says to Washington that it has to take its decision now not tomorrow. The Gulf crisis is becoming worse where Iran and Turkey get its outcomes. The wars in Syria and Iraq are approaching from their ends in favor of Russia, Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah. Furthermore the time in which Saudi Arabia and Israel supported by America will pay the big cost is approaching. The big decision is not in the end of ISIS, however in keeping the war open without winner or defeated. As ISIS is approaching from the defeat there must be strikes against Syria and its allies under the slogan of accusing of Chemical attack, or an expansion in the prohibited operations areas or threat to allied forces in order to weaken the progress fronts which are achieved by the Syrian army and its allies. The owners of these equations promote a statement “ if the threat does not prevent the Syrian army and the Popular crowd from continuing the progress towards the Syrian-Iraqi borders in Boukamal which considers a strategic detail in the US considerations, and if the Kurds are unable to prevent them in an appropriate time, through reaching the south of Deir Al Zour and Boukamal before the Syrian army, so why do we leave ISIS loses Boukamal in favor of our opponents? So let the equation be what is not lost by ISIS for our account and for the account of our allies, must not be fallen, so its remaining under the control of ISIS is better than its transferring to the opponents.

The same logic is spread and echoed by the US mass media and analyzed by the British mass media. Robert Fisk wrote in the “Independent” surprising, he wondered saying can we believe that after Washington and ISIS have become on one front practically are unable to win and do not want to be defeated, so one of them justifies the war of the other, it is a common war against Syria and its allies to prevent the unity of its territories and the seeking to turn it into a failed country, but the key word in this logic is the question posed by the enthusiastic friends of Israel in the US decision-making centers. What will Washington do when the war end in Syria after Hezbollah became on the southern borders of Lebanon and Syria equipped with the modern weapons and the military infrastructure, because any war with it will open the door for thousands of the fighters of the Poplar Crowd and Ansar Allah, therefore the diligence and the erosion will be an inevitable fate to Israel under strikes run by Hezbollah insider the occupied territories, where Israel will not have the opportunity to wage a war. The situation of Hamas will be different and the war of Yemen will in favor of the steadfastness of Ansar Allah. Saudi Arabia will be preoccupied with a deadly endless race with Qatar which is protected by Turkish-Iranian ceiling, and Europe will hasten to open up to a new Syria and to coordinate with it in security out of the obsession of the return of ” the lost sons” it aspires under Russian temptation to have a share in reconstruction and to accelerate the return of the displaced.

The US answer is not confusing but rather clear, the prevention of the progress of the Syrian army and its allies is the US priority within the basis of preventing any settlement in Geneva or Astana, and the prevention of a decisive victory of the Syrian army and its allies on ISIS and the rest of the armed groups in the south and north, putting all these please, from the threat of using the chemical weapons to the threat of not entering banned zones towards the threat of not colliding with the allied forces of the Americans and those work under their protection.

The decision of Russia, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah is to raise the level of confrontation to overthrow this new episode from the scandal of the war with ISIS and the winning on terrorism, whatever the cost is, and putting Washington in front of the difficult option; either to accept the rules of engagement in organizing the war on terrorism, or the comprehensive confrontation.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

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واشنطن: حماية «إسرائيل» من حزب الله ببقاء داعش؟

يونيو 29, 2017

ناصر قنديل

واشنطن: حماية «إسرائيل» من حزب الله ببقاء داعش؟

– لعلها من أغرب الاستنتاجات وأوقحها التي تكشف عنها النخب الأميركية المحيطة بدوائر صنع القرار في إدارة الرئيس دونالد ترامب، وتنتشر على مواقع مراكز الدراسات كخلاصات لورش عمل بحثية، ومن ثم في الصحف كاستنتاجات لمخاطر محتملة، وتتسرّب للصحف البريطانية وتنتشر عنها التحليلات، والمشترك بينها تسلسل في تناول المشهد الإقليمي يقول إن لحظة الرهان على إسقاط سورية ولّت إلى غير رجعة وأن الحضور الروسي والإيراني يضعان مقابل هذا الهدف حرباً شاملة لا قدرة لأميركا على الخوض في غمارها، وأن فرض معادلة جديدة في سورية تتحكم فيها أميركا عبر القوات الكردية شمالاً والقوات المقيمة في الأردن جنوباً، وتقاسم الحدود العراقية السورية بينهما قد سقط هو الآخر. فالمعركة المقبلة مع داعش صارت في دير الزور وليس في الموصل والرقة، والوزن الأكبر فيها سيكون للتحالف السوري الروسي الإيراني ومعهم حزب الله والحشد الشعبي. والقضية صارت هي الإجابة عن سؤال مَن سيرث تركة داعش؟

– يقول المنطق ذاته والذي لا يصبح معمماً إلا لأن هناك مَن يريد له التعميم، إن مسارات التجاذب الأميركي مع روسيا حول السياسات الدولية تقول الكلمة الفصل فيه سورية وحربها، وإن مسارات الوضع في الشرق الأوسط الذي تبدو فيه تركيا قد صارت خارج الفلك الأميركي وصارت «إسرائيل» والسعودية في وضع حرج أمام أي نصر إيراني مقبل في سورية، وأي تصاعد في قوة حزب الله وتحرر له من أعباء القتال بوجه داعش وباقي أخواته، تقول لواشنطن إن عليها اتخاذ قرارها الآن وليس غداً، فالأزمة الخليجية تتفاقم وتحصد إيران وتركيا ثمارها. والحرب في سورية والعراق تشارف على النهايات، ومَن سيقطف ثمارها كما هو واضح روسيا وسورية وإيران وحزب الله، وأن زمن دفع الثمن الكبير من جانب السعودية و«إسرائيل» ومن ورائهما أميركا يقترب، والقرار الكبير ليس في سلوك طريق نهاية داعش بل في بقاء الحرب مفتوحة بلا منتصر ولا مهزوم، كلما بدا أن داعش يقترب من الهزيمة يجب التوجّه لضربات ضد سورية وحلفائها تحت شعارات من نوع الاتهام باعتداء كيميائي أو تمدّد على مناطق عمليات محرمة أو تهديد لقوات حليفة، لفرض إضعاف جبهات التقدم التي يحققها الجيش السوري وحلفاؤه، ويسوّق أصحاب هذه المعادلات لمقولة قوامها، إذا كان التهديد لم يفلح بمنع الجيش السوري والحشد الشعبي من مواصلة التقدم نحو الحدود السورية العراقية في البوكمال، وهي مفصل استراتيجي في الحسابات الأميركية. وإذا كان الأكراد عاجزين عن منعهما في وقت مناسب من الوصول، ببلوغ جنوب دير الزور والبوكمال قبل الجيش السوري، فلماذا نترك داعش يخسر البوكمال لحساب خصومنا؟ ولتكن المعادلة ما لا يخسره داعش لحسابنا وحساب حلفائنا نمنع سقوطه، وبقاؤه بيد داعش خير من انتقاله للخصوم.

– ينتشر المنطق ذاته وتردده وسائل إعلام أميركية وتحلله وسائل الإعلام البريطانية. وقد كتب روبرت فيسك في الإندبندت مندهشاً، وهو يتساءل، هل نصدق أن واشنطن وداعش صارا في جبهة واحدة عملياً، عاجزَين عن النصر ولا يرغبان بالهزيمة، يبرر أحدهما حرب الآخر؟ وهي حرب مشتركة ضد سورية وحلفائها ومنع توحّد ترابها والسعي لتحويلها دولة فاشلة، لكن الكلمة المفتاح في هذا المنطق هي سؤال يطرحه اصدقاء «إسرائيل» المتحمّسون في دوائر القرار الأميركي، ماذا ستفعل واشنطن عندما تنتهي الحرب في سورية ويكون حزب الله قد صار على الحدود الجنوبية للبنان وسورية مزوّداً بأحدث الأسلحة والبنى التحتية العسكرية، وأي حرب معه تفتح باب استقدام مئات الآلاف من مقاتلي الحشد الشعبي وأنصار الله، وسيكون الضمور والتآكل قدر «إسرائيل» الحتمي تحت ضربات يديرها حزب الله داخل الأراضي المحتلة ولا تملك «إسرائيل» فرصة شنّ حرب، وسيكون وضع حماس قد تغيّر وحرب اليمن قد انتهت لصالح صمود وقوة أنصار الله، والسعودية منشغلة بتسابق قاتل بلا نهاية مع قطر التي يحميها سقف تركي إيراني، وأوروبا تسارع للانفتاح على سورية جديدة تنسق معها أمنياً بدافع هاجس عودة «الأبناء الضالين» وتتطلّع بإغراء روسي لنصيب من كعكة إعادة الإعمار وتسريع التخلص من جيش النازحين؟

– الجواب الأميركي ليس مشوشاً بل شديد الوضوح، وهو الذهاب بإعاقة تقدّم الجيش السوري وحلفائه هو الأولوية الأميركية، ضمن قاعدة منع تسوية في جنيف أو أستانة، ومنع انتصار حاسم للجيش السوري وحلفائه على داعش وسائر الجماعات المسلحة جنوباً وشمالاً، ووضع الذرائع كلها على الطاولة، من التهديد باستعمال السلاح الكيميائي إلى التهديد بعدم دخول مناطق محرمة وصولاً للتهديد بعدم التصادم مع قوات حليفة للأميركيين وتعمل تحت لوائهم.

– قرار روسيا وإيران وسورية وحزب الله هو رفع وتيرة التصدّي لإسقاط هذه الحلقة الجديدة من الإعاقة الفضائحية للحرب على داعش والانتصار على الإرهاب، مهما كان الثمن، ووضع واشنطن أمام الخيار الصعب، القبول بقواعد الاشتباك في تنظيم الحرب على الإرهاب، أو المواجهة الشاملة.

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