Shadow of Sarajevo 1914 Hangs Over Trump’s Golan Coup

Martin Sieff
April 26, 2019
Trump and Netanyahu still congratulate themselves on getting the United States to recognize Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights. They should not.

It looked like an absurd petty vanity in 1908 when the Austro-Hungarian Empire formally annexed the obscure Balkan provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Six years later that move set off the greatest war in human history and destroyed the old empire forever.

The Israelis have just made the same mistake in getting the United States under President Donald Trump to recognize their annexation of the Golan Heights.

Israel took control of the Golan Heights on June 11, 1967 after a fiercely fought war over the territory with Syria. Israeli settlements in the northern Jordan Valley directly below the Golan had been repeatedly shelled during the previous two decades of fragile peace. The Israelis were therefore determined to keep control of the Golan area to prevent a future invasion by Syria and its allies into northern Israel. That nearly happened in the 1973 Yom Kippur War or War of Ramadan when hugely outnumbered Israeli screening forces were taken by surprise by the Syrians and only held them off in ferocious tank battles that are still closely studied today by war colleges all around the world.

That experience left the Israelis more determined than ever to hold on to the Golan territories and the Syrians more determined than ever to regain them.

Right wing nationalist Israeli Prime Minister Menahem Begin proved willing – eventually – to give up all of the Sinai Peninsula back to Egypt in the 1977-79 peace process with then-Egyptian President Anwar Sadat. But Begin proved implacable in his refusal to consider a similar bargain with President Hafez Assad, Syria’s leader for 30 years. In December 1981, Begin unilaterally annexed the Golan Heights.

Ironically, Yitzhak Rabin, Israel’s guiding strategic genius for three decades from his assumption of command as Army Chief of Staff in 1964 to his assassination while serving as prime minister in 1995, was prepared to consider returning the Golan to Syria before he was gunned down, shot in the back by Yigael Amir, a young Israeli religious-nationalist fanatic and student at Israel’s ultra-Orthodox religious center of higher education Bar-Ilan University.

For the previous two decades, Rabin, during his long terms as Israeli defense minister had actually come to a remarkable quiet understanding with Assad. Both men quietly respected each other and they both loathed and distrusted Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat. As a result, they proved highly effective in keeping the peace.

Clashes between Syrian and Israeli ground forces during Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982 were carefully kept extremely limited in scope on both sides. And apart from that brief conflict, not a single Israeli or Syrian soldier was killed in action along their joint border during all the years Rabin and Assad senior held power.

As long as Rabin and Hafez Assad both lived there was a surprising amount of stability and peace between Tel Aviv and Damascus. That condition at first continued following the passing of both men. Assad died in office in 2000 and was succeeded by his son Bashir who still rules Syria now.

But today we see a very different situation. The US and Israeli obsession with toppling Bashir Assad and ending his close ties with Iran and Hezbollah led to the catastrophic Western support of extreme Islamists, ludicrously presented as democratic forces in the Arab Spring of 2011. The US government driven by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and supported by the United Kingdom and France as well as Israel believed Assad could be quickly toppled – which indeed proved to be the fate of Libya’s veteran leader Muammar Qadafi.

But Bashir Assad proved to be made of sterner stuff. The half of Syria forced from his government’s control did not experience some golden age. Most of it fell into the merciless hands of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The ancient Assyrian Christian and other minority communities of Syria who had been protected by the Assad governments were virtually annihilated in those terrible years. The Assad government fought back. Backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, it survived and has reestablished itself. The United States and its allies refuse to recognize these realities. Trump’s move to boost Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s standing by legally recognizing Israel’s annexation of the Golan plunges both countries further into dangerous delusion.


Top IOF Official: «Israeli» Army Not Ready for War with Hezbollah


Local Editor

“Israeli” Occupation Forces [IOF] Ombudsman General Yitzhak Brick has once again warned that the IOF is unprepared for the challenges it faces. Brik spoke Wednesday before the Knesset Oversight Committee, telling “Israeli” MKs that he was concerned that the “Israeli” entity may “repeat the catastrophe we had before the ‘Yom Kippur War’. The situation is serious enough that we need an external investigative committee, such as the Winograd Committee” which investigated the IOF’s level of preparedness during the Second Lebanon War.

According to many historians, the heads of the IOF claimed before the “Yom Kippur War” that they were ready for every eventuality, and that it was unlikely that Syria or Egypt would attack the entity, as they realized that the IOF had superior firepower and manpower.

Brick told the committee that the claims by IOF leaders today echo those claims – but as an army insider, he knew that the army was not ready to meet major challenges by Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran. “We are facing a catastrophe akin to that before the ‘Yom Kippur War’, and I don’t want a repeat of that,” Brik said.

Brick has been a longtime critic of top IOF brass. In November, Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkott said after a joint exercise between ground soldiers and the Air Force that the IOF is in as good shape as it has ever been. Commenting on the exercises, Eisenkott’s aide, Colonel Kobi Heller, said that “soldiers and officers exhibited a high degree of professionalism and this exercise proves that they are prepared for any scenario.”

In response, Brick said in a series of messages to members of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and War Committee that “all of the things you have been relying upon in terms of the country’s ‘defense’ based on your conversations with top officials will not give you the real picture”.

He added,

“Many of you don’t understand the situation. Many officers base their comments on inaccurate information, and those who know the truth are afraid to speak. All the slide shows that the army shows you cannot explain the seriousness of the gaps in the way it is run – with the lack of discipline, the failure to carry out orders, the lack of following up on operations, the organizational issues, and other problems”.

Commenting on Wednesday’s session, Committee chairperson MK Shelly Yechimovich said that although many people in the army were critical of Brick’s stance – with good reason –

“I see no reason to silence the critical voices, especially when they come from the establishment itself and from a man with deep knowledge and vast experience, who is thinking only of the good of the country. Criticism and alternative views are the lifeblood of a functioning system. We have on occasion quieted those critics, and paid a price for it.”

Source: News Agencies, Edited by website team

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War Of 1973 – Syria, Egypt And Israel Fight To A Standstill – What Happened?

Rebel Voice

It is known as the Ramadan War, the October War and the Yom Kippur War. It took place in 1973 and was between the rogue state of Israel and the Arab states of Egypt and Syria who had some troops from various other nations. It is spoken of and debated online and beyond. But how many know what really took place and why?

The following presentation provides some insight into the conflict and it’s outcomes, most of which are still being felt to this day in the region and much further afield. Watch this and then find a Zionist and debate the hell out of them.

If you care about this issue, please tell others

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October Liberation 2018

DAMASCUS, (ST)_ On the 45th   Anniversary of October Liberation War, the Syria Times is honored to publish the historic speech of the late President Hafez Al-Assad on this occasion:

Brotherly citizens,

Our brave soldiers and army officers,

Our great people,

I salute each and every one of you. I address in you, today, the true Arabian spirit, the spirit of courage and heroism, the spirit of sacrifice and giving.

I address in you, your love to the homeland, and your faith in the cause you have decided to defend. For more than a week, the enemy has been mobilizing  and premeditating its forces, thinking it will deal a treacherous blow to us. But we were vigilant enough to monitor its movements and cantonments, and to repel its new potential aggression.  We did not allow the enemy to take us by surprise. So, our armed forces respond appropriately  to it  . Our brothers in Egypt did  not allow  the aggression  to take them by surprise. The great army of Egypt rushed to defend the dignity of Egypt and the dignity of the Arab Nation. Greetings to our army and  to our people, and a tribute to the army of Egypt and the great Arab people of Egypt.

I must at these  crucial moments pay  another tribute  from the heart to the  brave military forces ,  who came to our  country from our  Arab brotherly country of Morocco to take part in the  battle of pride and dignity and to sacrifice their blood generously ,  shoulder to shoulder with their brothers in Syria and Egypt . Thereby, they embody the unity of the nation, the common destiny and the  sanctity of the goal.

Today , we are fighting the battle of honor and pride, in defense of our precious land, for our glorious history , and of the heritage of our forefathers. We fight  the  battle, equipped  with faith in God and in ourselves; and with the solid  and compelling determination  that victory will be on our side.

 Israel is stubborn  and is  hit  by vanity,  and arrogance filled the heads of its officials. They continued their crime  and aggression. Their hearts  are filled with black hatred  against our people and against humanity. They are fret with thirst for bloodshed. Their footsteps disregard the principles and ideals of humanitarian principles and sublime morals and the international laws and resolutions.

Such persons are, the same, like their predecessors, among  the advocates of war,  do not confine themselves  to a limit, nor get deterred , unless they are deterred  by people who believe in their own  right, and fight for their freedom and own  existence.

 While we do our duty to defend our land and the honor of our nation, we are ready to make every sacrifice and accept all challenges in order to win the right and win principles, so that  just peace would prevail.

Brotherly citizens,

Adversity is the touchstone for the nature of peoples, and a test for their authenticity. The more severe the crisis is, the more the pure  metal revealed and the entrenched originality confirmed .

You are the sons of a nation, which has been known throughout history for stances of manhood and pride, of heroism and redemption.  You are the sons of the nation that had carried the message of light and faith into all the corners of the earth, and  the  entire world was a witness to its  highest traits and noblest morals.

You are the  descendants of Abu Bakr, Omar, Othman, Ali, God bless them.  You are the  grandchildren  of Khalid, Abu Obeida, and Amre, and Saad, and Salah al-Din.  The conscience of our nation calls on us, and the souls of our martyrs ignite us as to abide by the teachings  reflected in  Yarmouk, Qadisiya, Hittin, and  Ein Jallout. The  eyes and hearts  of the masses of our nation from  the Atlantic to the Gulf are now clinging   to our great steadfastness .These masses  are all hope and  confidence  that we are proceeding towards  ultimate victory.

Dear brave soldiers and army officers,

We are the rightful  owners and the owners of a just cause, and God grant victory to the one who is  rightful defending his right. You are defending today the honor of the Arab nation, preserving its  dignity and existence, and  rendering sacrifices , so that the future generations  are to live satisfied and secure.

 By accident , it  is the  will of the Almighty God that your Jihad  is in  one of the days of  the holy month, the month of Ramadan, the month of jihad. The month of the Battle of Badr, the month of victory. A bright chapter in the history of our armed forces  to be added   to the many chapters of  heroism and sacrifice, testified by the blood of our martyrs  throughout the history of our country and   Arab nation .

Our ancestors have won victory through faith , sacrifice and  through their racing  to win martyrdom in defense of our divine religion and the rightful message . Today, through your courage  and heroism , you have revived  these  spirits alongside the  glorious  Arab tradition.

Your weapon is  but a deposit  in your hands , that you have  to use properly. The honor of the Arab soldier is your responsibility  and the future of our peoples is in your hand,  for the sake of which you  have to fight relentlessly.

Our  people whose sons  survive great  enthusiasm stand, one line,  behind you, protecting your back lines , and supporting your struggle by all means .  The masses of our Arab nation stand  behind our people. This position by the Arab nation is dedicated by national duty  in this crucial phase.  Behind our people, there also many friends in the world who stand in support of our cause and struggle.

We are not amateurs of killing and destruction, but we are repulsing murder and destruction from ourselves.

We are not the aggressors and never were   aggressors; but we were and are still defending ourselves, repulsing the aggression.

We do not want death to anyone, but we repulse death off our people.

We love freedom and we want it for ourselves and for others. We are  struggling  today ,  so that our people will  enjoy  their freedom.

 We are advocates of peace, and  we work for peace for the sake of  our people and for all the peoples of the world. And we struggle  today in order to live in peace .

Proceed with God’s blessing, when Allah render you victory, no one would defeat you.

Peace be upon you


Dr. Mohamad Abdo Al-Ibrahim

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The Yom Kippur Syndrome

September 18, 2018  /  Gilad Atzmon


A message to Jews from Gilad Atzmon

When the Yom Kippur War broke out 45 years ago I was ten years old.  I recall a lot of fear all around me. Israel was my home and it was about to be wiped out. This is what I believed at the time, and this is what everyone around me repeated. We were all certainly caught unprepared.

My father was called up by the Air Force in the early hours of Yom Kippur (October 6th 1973). We didn’t hear from him for a few weeks. We didn’t know whether he was alive. In fact, we had good reason to believe he wasn’t. We were very worried.  For the adults around me, the first days of the war were a reminder of the Shoah. Israeli leaders, Golda Meir and Moshe Dayan as well as the top Israeli military command appeared perplexed and hesitant on TV. Their message was: ‘the future isn’t clear, we may even witness the destruction of the 3rd temple.’

Years later, when I became an avid reader of history and military texts, it became clear to me that the collective Shoah dread into which we immersed ourselves was a manifestation of Jewish pre traumatic stress disorder (Pre TSD). We were tormented by a phantasmic fear. Neither the Syrians nor the Egyptian armies had plans to ‘destroy Israel,’ wipe out the Jewish state or ‘throw the Jews into the sea’. Their military objectives were, in fact, very limited. Neither the Egyptians nor the Syrians wished to expand their military ground operation beyond a few miles into the Sinai and the Golan Heights. Both Arab armies were dependent on Soviet ground to air missiles that severely limited Israeli air superiority above the battlefield. The Soviet missile umbrella provided about 10 miles of anti air cover and the Arab armies had no intent to proceed beyond that ‘safe’ zone.

It took me years to grasp that Israel’s panic during the first few days of the war led to some serious military blunders (such as the IDF’s disastrous counter offensive on the 8th of October). This panic was fuelled by projection.  Believing that the Arabs were ‘about to throw the Jews into the sea’, Israeli generals and cabinet members reacted irrationally and wasted their limited reserve forces in a  counter offensive that failed and cost many Israeli lives.

But why did the Israelis believe that the Arabs were about to throw them into the sea? Why did they assume the Arab armies were murderous or possibly genocidal? Why did PM Golda Meir and Defense Minister Moshe Dayan believe that the ‘3rd temple’ was about to be annihilated?  Simple, because the Israelis were and still are driven by lethal inclinations towards their neighbours. It was the Israelis who literally pushed the Palestinians into the sea in 1948 into the sea. Israelis were panicking because they were projecting their own symptoms onto the Arabs. 

In ‘The Wandering Who’ I elaborate on projection in the context of Jewish ‘pre traumatic stress.’ The principle is simple. The more murderous and sinister one is, the more fearful one becomes of others. Humans tend to attribute their own reasoning and symptoms onto others. Accordingly, the more menacing one is, the more sinister one believes the other to be.

Israelis consistently attribute their own racist and barbarian symptoms onto the Palestinians. The possibility that a Palestinian or an Arab would be as merciless as the IDF causes real and total panic for the Israeli. The thought that the Palestinians, for instance, would want to displace a quarter of Israeli citizens and massacre Israelis as the IDF has done to Gaza numerous times must evoke terror amongst Israelis and for a good reason.

But this state of collective anxiety is not unique to Israelis; it is embedded in Jewish culture. Basically, Jews are tormented by anti Semitism because they assume that their own ‘goy hatred’ is echoed by ‘Jew hatred’ from their gentile neighbours. As Martin Heidegger noted in the 1930s, the Jews opposed in the Nazis the racism which they recognized from themselves. Heidegger wrote in his Black Notebooks: the Jewish people, with their talent for calculation, were so vehemently opposed to the Nazi’s racial theories because

“they themselves have lived according to the race principle for longest.”

In 1973 Israel believed that that the Arabs were out to eradicate them because this is exactly what the Israelis would have liked to do to the Arabs.

The Syndrome

Projection is just one aspect of the Yom Kippur war. I guess that, at least from a philosophical perspective, the most interesting aspect of the 73 War was that it marked a sudden switch from Judeo centric manic ‘hubris’ to melancholia, apathy and depression.

Following their outstanding 1967 military victory, the Israelis developed an arrogant disrespectful attitude toward Arabs and their military capability. Israeli intelligence predicted that it would take years for Arab armies to recover. The Israeli military didn’t believe that the Arab soldier had the ability to fight, let alone score a victory.

But on 6 October 1973, the Israelis had a devastating surprise. This time the Arab soldier was very different. The Israeli military strategy that was built on air superiority and fast ground maneuvers supported by tanks was crushed in only a few hours. The Egyptians and Syrians helped by new Soviet antitank and ground to air missiles managed to dismantle Israeli’s might. In the first days of the war Israel suffered heavy casualties and, as mentioned above, the Israeli leadership and high command were in a state of despair. This type of crisis wasn’t new to the Jews. It is consistently symptomatic of Jewish culture to be ‘surprised’ and overwhelmed by the Goyim’s fierce resilience.

The Israeli military fiasco at the first stage of the war was a repetition of a tragic syndrome that is as old as the Jews themselves. Jewish hubris that is driven by a strong sense of choseness and that repeatedly leads to horrific consequences is what I call ‘The Yom Kippur Syndrome.’  The syndrome can be defined as a repeated chain of events that drive Jewish societies towards an extreme irrational sense of pride, arrogance, self-confidence and blindness toward others and the tragedy that inevitably follows.

On October 6th, the Israelis realised that they had grossly underestimated their enemies.  But it wasn’t the first time such a mistake occurred in Jewish history. Every Jewish disaster is, to a certain extent, a repetition of the Yom Kippur Syndrome. In 1920s Berlin the Jewish elite boasted of its power. Some rich Jews were convinced that Germany and its capital were Jewish occupied territories. At the time, a few German Jews dominated banking and influenced Germany’s politics and media. In addition, the Frankfurt School as well as other Jewish school of thoughts were openly dedicated to the cultural uprooting of Germans, all in the name of, ‘progress,’ ‘working class politics,’ phenomenology and cultural Marxism. Then, almost from nowhere, as far as German Jews were concerned, a tidal wave of resentment appeared. And the rest is known.

But was there really a sudden shift in German consciousness? Should German ‘anti Semitism’ have come as a surprise? Not at all. All necessary signs had been present for some time. In fact, Early Zionists such as Herzl and Nordau correctly predicted the inevitable rise of European anti Jewish sentiments. But Jewish hubris prevented Berlin’s Jewish elite from evaluating the growing opposition around them. The Yom Kippur Syndrome.

The same could be said of the Jewish Lobby, AIPAC, Friends of Israel clubs in Britain, the BOD, the three British Jewish papers that, in the name of British Jewry, declared war on Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party.  These Jewish lobbies and institutions that relentlessly seek influence over Western foreign affairs and the Labour Party in particular: do they grasp the level of resentment and the potential disaster they are bringing on their fellow Jews?

Can the Jew recover from the Yom Kippur Syndrome? Can the Jew somehow detect resentment as it grows and amend his or her ways?  All it takes is drifting away from choseness. But once stripped of choseness what is left of the Jew or for the Jew?

This may be the most devastating question and the true meaning of the existential Yom Kippur Syndrome; there is no Jewish collective ideological escape for the Jew. Zionism failed to provide the goods and the so called ‘anti Zionists’ have done little other than form their own racially exclusive enclaves of chosenness within the so called ‘Left over.’

The only escape route from the Yom Kippur Syndrome is personal and individual. Try leaving the tribe late in the night, crawl under the ghetto fence, dig a tunnel under the ‘separation wall’ if necessary and then once on land of the free, proceed quietly and modestly towards the humane and the universal.

Good luck

Nasrallah in the “Israeli” Consciousness: An Unpleasant But an Honest Arab Leader قائد عربي مرّ… لكنه صادق

Yehya Dbouk

One of the most important weapons in the hands of the resistance in 2006 was Hezbollah’s Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. He is an active, influential and credible weapon. The enemy anticipates his appearance even before the allies do. It waits to hear his positions to be used as a sufficient indicator of what to anticipate. This is how the “Israelis” saw Nasrallah in 2006 and still do in comparison to their less credible leaders and their declining status.

From the leaks that preceded the July 2006 war, a series of studies and extensive research were conducted both inside and outside the “Israeli” security establishment. They involved research centers dealing with strategic studies in Tel Aviv that focused on the personality and charisma of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and how he was a “lethal weapon” in the hands of the enemies – no less effective on the conflict’s outcome than the missile arsenal in Hezbollah’s possession.

He is a weapon of psychological warfare, aware and well versed in the enemy’s abilities as well as its strengths and weaknesses. He also realizes the meaning of psychological warfare and its effectiveness. This awareness is not only related to influencing his supporters in Lebanon and the Arab and Islamic worlds, which “Israel” can understand, but his influence (that “Israel” regards as negative) also extends to the “Israeli” public as well as the political and military leadership.

One of these studies was prepared as an academic master’s thesis and authored by the current chief of staff of the “Israeli” army, Gadi Eisenkot. The context of the study was based on his understanding of “Israel’s” main enemy on the northern front. The study, from which a general description was published, is part of a series of studies that have been carried out over the past years. It examined the character of Nasrallah and his charisma, him being part of the consciousness battle as well as the military battle of the resistance fighters. According to Yedioth Ahronoth, this study is one of Eisenkot’s main contributions. It tackles Lebanon and the great threat posed by Hezbollah to “Israel”. It studies and analyzes the personality of the most important enemy leader (Nasrallah), specifically regarding his performance by analyzing his public speeches, described by both the newspaper and the study as: “getting into the enemy’s head”.

An unpleasant enemy and the leader of the Katyusha front

Early research on Nasrallah’s words, status, his impact during the 2006 war, underscoring that the “Nasrallah phenomenon” and its foundations and concentration in the collective consciousness of the “Israelis” date back to the pre-war years. It is a research published weeks after the cease-fire in the “The Seventh Eye” (Issue 64, September 2006), an “Israeli” magazine devoted to criticizing and evaluating Hebrew-language media outlets and publications. The columnist, Zvi Bar’el, the Middle Eastern affairs analyst for Haaretz Newspaper, points to the following:

(Sayyed) Hassan Nasrallah represents three different personalities within the “Israeli” media and the “Israeli” public consciousness: an unpleasant enemy, the leader of the Katyusha front, an expert on military affairs and measures as well as an expert in the “Israeli” society and army. The “Israeli” leaders and public, including the pundits in the “Israeli” media waited for his speeches the same way the Lebanese and Arab leaders and public would. (…) It seems that no war in the modern era had the same share of Nasrallah’s speeches and addresses, which were affluent in facts, analyses, explanations and values as the last one had. It dominated the media’s analyses. It was also of paramount importance to denote the realities and approaching developments in the war.

In his research, Bar’el adds that the “Nasrallah media phenomenon” would not have existed in this manner and formula unless it had previously been built up for years in the “Israeli” media. Nasrallah has earned the title of the “credible person whose words have a clear impact on hundreds of thousands of “Israelis” and on “Israel” as a whole. And in the eyes of many, this man, rightly, expelled “Israel” from Lebanon and created a huge deterrent system against it.”

In signifying his status in the “Israeli” consciousness, Bar’el notes: “In short, Nasrallah, for the first time, breaks an agreed upon rule among the “Israeli” public and media: an Arab leader who does not boast; he does not lie, and his words are accurate.” These qualities terrified the “Israel” broadcasting authority officials during the war. They quickly attempted to obstruct the effects of Nasrallah’s words and speeches during the battles. They subjected them to censorship and classified them as a weapon in the hands of the enemy.

Nasrallah is different from Arab leaders

Another publication in “Israel” related to the effects of the 2006 war came from the “Israeli” Media Association’s quarterly Masskrut Media’s Fall 2012 edition titled: “Hassan Nasrallah’s Television Appearance During the Second Lebanon War”. The study examined the seven speeches Sayyed Nasrallah delivered during the war, especially with regard to his verbal and nonverbal messages. The emphasis was on the latter, affecting the consciousness of the recipient by combining the words with movements and facial expressions that demonstrate truthfulness, rigor, firmness and knowledge. The long academic research is full of data, abstracts and diagrams that show the effectiveness and influence of Nasrallah’s speeches in the “Israeli” consciousness, particularly in the Second Lebanon War as an effective weapon alongside the military battle.

One of the more remarkable aspects of the research relates to the reasons given by the authors in their introduction as to why Sayyed Nasrallah was placed as a reliable and credible figure among the “Israelis” unlike previous and current Arab leaders.

One of these reasons is the collective “Israeli” will and that of its media to distort the image of Nasrallah and to undermine his credibility and his position among the “Israeli” public. This eventually backfired against the initial scheme of distortion and strengthened his image. The effect of the repeated television appearances, in sound and image, and more importantly his body language during his speeches, later enhanced his image further, especially with the coupling of his words with subsequent events and developments that indicated his credibility. This is what happened before the war, years before and after 2000 and during the 2006 war up until the present day.

The research by the “Israeli” studies over the image of Sayyed Nasrallah and its impact on the “Israeli” consciousness is endless. The samples presented here are taken from research published in “Israel”. Yet many of them have not been published and remain confined to the institutions and forums dealing with the permanent confrontation between “Israel” and Hezbollah, as is the case with studies published and discussed within the “Israeli” security establishment and its several academies.

Fighting against “Israel” without fire

18 years after the withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and 12 years after the war in 2006, Nasrallah’s image continues to taunt the consciousness of the “Israeli” public, leaders and security establishment. It is impossible to deny that the decision makers in Tel Aviv are aware of this phenomenon and the damage it has caused as they work hard to reduce its negative effects. However, there is a race between the plans and Nasrallah’s credibility. It appears that the latter is winning. Most “Israeli” strategists, who worked on this phenomenon and tried to limit it, excelled in describing it. They spoke about the necessity to address it. But despite all the available possibilities, they failed to develop strategies that would evolve “Israel’s” required efficiency and objectives in this confrontation.

In this regard, several articles and other research materials have been published in “Israel” and abroad on the Nasrallah phenomenon. One sample appeared in an article authored by the director of the Military and Strategic Affairs and Cyber Warfare programs at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Col. Gabi Siboni. It was published in Newsweek a year ago (18-10-2017). He discussed the need to “confront Nasrallah’s intellectual speech and its negative impact on the “Israeli” public and army both during times of war and in the absence of it.” Siboni stressed that the “Israeli” security establishment should develop a strategy to strengthen and fortify the “Israeli” public with regard to the efforts made by Hezbollah and its Secretary General in particular as an integral part of the preparations for a military confrontation. The intellectual elements that Nasrallah utilizes before and during the war will have a very important role in the coming confrontation, no less important than the war effort itself.

Siboni emphasizes what he calls “fighting against “Israel” without fire” in his description of the battle on the mind. The battle is against the consciousness and influence. This is a characteristic of Nasrallah’s speeches. The researcher demands that those who make strategies and policies in “Israel” understand that the mind has become an integral part of the 21st century battle, and that security knowhow is now an urgent need for national security.

Siboni’s references and descriptions, the demands and his insistence on these in his article as well as the refinement in his choice of words linked to the relevance of his position and his familiarity with the policies and strategies adopted and enforced by the “Israeli” army, all clearly and unequivocally indicate that “Israel” so far, 12 years after the 2006 war and despite its perception of the seriousness of Nasrallah’s image engraved in the “Israeli” mind, has not yet found a “cure” for this phenomenon and its negative impact as a second weapon of Hezbollah, integrated with weapons and military efforts – before, during and after the battles.

Source: Al-Akhbar, Translated by website team

نصر الله في الوعي الإسرائيلي

قائد عربي مرّ… لكنه صادق

 الإثنين 23 تموز 2018

إحدى أهم الوسائل القتالية التي كانت في حوزة المقاومة عام 2006، هي الأمين العام لحزب الله، السيد حسن نصر الله. سلاح فاعل ومؤثر وذو صدقية، يترقب إطلالاته العدو قبل الصديق، وينتظر مواقفه كمؤشر كافٍ بذاته للدلالة على الآتي. هذه هي حال الإسرائيليين عام 2006، في النظرة إلى نصر الله، وما زالت، في موازاة تدني صدقية قادتهم، وتراجع مكانتهم.

في التسريبات التي سبقت حرب تموز عام 2006، وتلك التي أعقبتها، تظهّرت جملة دراسات وأبحاث داخل المؤسسة الأمنية الإسرائيلية وخارجها، بما يشمل مراكز بحثية تُعنى بالدراسات الاستراتيجية في تل أبيب، ركزت على شخصية الأمين العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصر الله وكاريزميته، وكونه «سلاحاً فتاكاً» في أيدي الأعداء، لا يقلّ فاعلية لجهة النتيجة، عن الترسانة الصاروخية الموجودة في حوزة حزب الله.

سلاح حرب نفسية مبني على تأسيسات مدركة وخبيرة بالعدو وقدراته ونقاط قوته وضعفه، في موازاة إدراكها معنى الحروب النفسية وفاعليتها. إدراك لا يرتبط بالتأثير في جمهوره في لبنان والعالمين العربي والإسلامي وحسب، وهو ما يمكن إسرائيل تفهمه، بل تأثيره («السلبي من ناحيتها») يمتد بكاريزميته إلى الداخل والوعي الإسرائيليين، بما ينسحب على الجمهور والمستويات القيادية، في اتجاهيها السياسي والعسكري.

إحدى هذه الدراسات، بحث أعده رئيس أركان الجيش الإسرائيلي الحالي، غادي أيزنكوت، كرسالة ماجستير أكاديمية، جرى التطرق لها في سياق استعراض مستوى فهم ايزنكوت للعدو الرئيسي لإسرائيل في الجبهة الشمالية. الدراسة التي نشر عنها توصيف عام، تأتي ضمن سلسلة دراسات جرى العمل عليها في السنوات الماضية، واعتنت وبحثت في شخصية نصر الله وكاريزميته، وكونه جزءاً من المعركة على الوعي إلى جانب المعركة العسكرية التي يخوضها مقاتلو المقاومة. بحسب صحيفة «يديعوت أحرونوت»، هذه الدراسة هي إحدى أهم ميزات أيزنكوت حيال لبنان والتهديد الكبير الذي يمثله حزب الله على إسرائيل، إذ تتعلق بدراسة وتحليل شخصية أهم قائد لدى العدو (نصر الله)، وتحديداً ما يتعلق بأدائه عبر تحليل خطاباته العلنية، في محاولة توصفها الصحيفة والدراسة معاً: لـ«دخول رأس العدو».

عدو مرّ وقائد جبهة الكاتيوشا

أولى الكتابات البحثية حول كلمات نصر الله ومكانتها وتأثيرها خلال حرب عام 2006، مع تشديدها على أن «ظاهرة نصر الله» وتأسيساتها وتمركزها في الوعي الجمعي للإسرائيليين تعود إلى ما قبل الحرب بسنوات، تتمثل في البحث المنشور بعد أسابيع على وقف إطلاق النار، في دورية «العين السابعة» (العدد 64 أيلول 2006)، المجلة المتخصصة التي تعنى بنقد وتقويم الإعلام العبري وكتاباته. الكاتب، تسفي برئيل، معلق شؤون الشرق الأوسط في صحيفة «هآرتس»، يشير إلى الآتي:

يمثل حسن نصر الله لدى الإعلام العبري وفي وعي الجمهور الإسرائيلي، ثلاث شخصيات مختلفة: عدو مرّ وقائد جبهة الكاتيوشا؛ خبير في الشؤون والتدابير العسكرية؛ وخبير في المجتمع والجيش الإسرائيليين. وكما فعل القادة والجمهور اللبناني والعربي في انتظار خطاباته، فعلت أيضاً القيادة والجمهور الإسرائيليين، بما يشمل المعلقين في الإعلام العبري. (…) ويبدو أنه لم تحظ أي حرب في العصر الحديث، بما حظيت فيه الحرب الأخيرة، من خطب وكلمات، على لسان نصر الله، مع غنى بالوقائع والتحليلات والتفسيرات والقيم المضافة: وهو ما كان موضوع تحليل على رأس سلم الاهتمام الخبري؛ وأهمية فائقة أيضاً للدلالة على وقائع وتطورات الأيام المقبلة للحرب.

يضيف هرئيل في بحثه، أن «ظاهرة نصر الله» الإعلامية لم تكن لتكون موجودة بهذه الكيفية والصيغة، من دون بنائها على مدى سنوات في الإعلام الإسرائيلي. حاز نصر الله صفة «الشخص الموثوق بكلامه، وفي كلامه انعكاس واضح على مئات الآلاف من الإسرائيليين وعلى إسرائيل برمتها. وبعيون الكثيرين، يعد هذا الرجل، وعن حق، من طرد إسرائيل من لبنان وأوجد منظومة ردع هائلة في قبالتها».

في التدليل على مكانته في الوعي الإسرائيلي، يشير هرئيل: «باختصار، نصر الله وللمرة الأولى يحطم قاعدة متفقاً عليها لدى الجمهور والإعلام الإسرائيليين: زعيم عربي لا يتبجح؛ لا يكذب وكلامه دقيق»، هذه الصفات هي التي أرعبت مسؤول سلطة البث الإسرائيلي في زمن الحرب، عندما سارع لمنع تأثيرات كلمات نصر الله وخطبه خلال أيام المعارك، وإخضاعها للرقابة، باعتبارها سلاحاً فعلياً في أيدي العدو.

نصر الله شخصية مغايرة للقادة العرب

من ضمن ما نُشر في إسرائيل، وبما يرتبط أيضاً بتأثيراته في حرب عام 2006، يبرز بحث نشر في فصلية الجمعية الإسرائيلية للإعلام («مسكروت مديا») – خريف 2012، تحت عنوان «الظهور التلفزيوني لحسن نصر الله خلال حرب لبنان الثانية». عمد البحث إلى دراسة خطب السيد نصر الله السبعة خلال الحرب، وتحديداً ما يتعلق برسائله اللفظية وغير اللفظية، مع التشديد على الأخيرة لكونها أكثر تأثيراً في وعي المتلقي، التي تقرن اللفظ بالحركات وتعابير الوجه الدالة على الصدقية والصرامة والحزم والمعرفة. البحث الأكاديمي، الطويل جداً، مليء بالمعطيات والخلاصات والرسوم البيانية، الدالة على مدى تأثير خطب نصر الله وفاعليتها في الوعي الإسرائيلي، وتحديداً في حرب لبنان الثانية، كسلاح فعال إلى جانب المعركة العسكرية.

اللافت في البحث، هو ما يتعلق بجملة الأسباب التي بحثها المؤلفون في مقدمته، والتي أدت إلى تموضع السيد نصر الله كشخصية موثوقة ومصداقة لدى الإسرائيليين، مغايرة للقادة العرب الذين ألفوهم في السابق والحاضر. إحدى هذه الأسباب تعود إلى إرادة إسرائيلية لدى وسائل الإعلام العبرية، لتشويه صورة نصر الله نفسه وضرب صدقيته ومكانته لدى الجمهور الإسرائيلي، الأمر الذي ارتدّ سلباً في نهاية المطاف على المخطط الابتدائي للتشويه، وأدى إلى تعزيز الصورة عنه. تأثير الظهور المتكرر التلفزيوني، بالصوت والصورة والأهم الحركات التي يبديها خلال كلماته، أدى لاحقاً إلى تعزيز صورته أكثر، خصوصاً مع اقتران كلماته بأحداث وتطورات لاحقة دلت على صدقيته. هذا ما حدث قبل الحرب، في سنوات ما قبل عام 2000 وما أعقبه، وخلال الحرب الأخيرة 2006، وصولاً إلى الآن.

البحث في الدراسات الإسرائيلية عن صورة السيد نصر الله وتأثيرها في الوعي الإسرائيلي، يطول إلى الحد الذي لا ينتهي معه. العينات الواردة هنا، مأخوذة من أبحاث نشرت في إسرائيل، رغم أن الكثير منها لم ينشر وبقي متداولاً في المؤسسات والمحافل المختصة بالمواجهة الدائمة بين إسرائيل وحزب الله، كما هو حال الدراسات الصادرة والمتداولة في المؤسسة الأمنية الإسرائيلية وأكاديمياتها المتعددة.

القتال ضد إسرائيل من دون نيران

صورة نصر الله، بعد 18 عاماً على الانسحاب من لبنان عام 2000، و12 عاماً على حرب عام 2006، ما زالت تحفر في الوعي الإسرائيلي، جمهوراً وقادة ومؤسسة أمنية. لا يمكن الإنكار أن صانع القرار في تل أبيب يعي هذه الظاهرة وأضرارها، وهو يعمل عليها بشدة ضمن هدف تقليص مفعولها وتأثيرها السلبي، لكن ما بين الخطط الموضوعة وواقع صدقية نصر الله سباق، يبدو أن الغلبة للثاني. معظم الكتبة الاستراتيجيين الإسرائيليين، الذين عملوا على هذه الظاهرة ومحاولة الحد منها، أبدعوا في توصيفها، وتحدثوا عن ضرورة معالجتها، لكنهم عجزوا عن بلورة استراتيجيات مواجهة توصل إسرائيل إلى النجاعة والهدف المطلوبين في هذه المواجهة، رغم كل الإمكانات المتوافرة لديها.

في ذلك، صدرت عدة أبحاث ومقالات في إسرائيل وخارجها، حول ظاهرة نصر الله، بالمعنى المشار إليه. ومنها عينة، وردت في مقالة نشرت في «نيوزويك» الأميركية قبل عام (2017-10-18)، لمدير برنامج الشؤون العسكرية والاستراتيجية في مركز أبحاث الأمن القومي في تل أبيب، العقيد احتياط غابي سيبوني، الذي بحث في ضرورة «مواجهة خطاب نصر الله المعرفي، وتأثيره السلبي في الجمهور والجيش الإسرائيليين، في زمن الحرب واللاحرب». يشدد سيبوني، على وجوب أن تبلور المؤسسة الأمنية الإسرائيلية، استراتيجية خاصىة لتعزيز وتحصين الجمهور الإسرائيلي في الداخل حيال الجهود المبذولة من قبل حزب الله وأمينه العام تحديداً، كجزء لا يتجزأ من الاستعداد للمواجهات العسكرية، حيث ستكون «العناصر المعرفية» التي يقودها نصر الله، خلال الحرب وقبلها، دور مهم جداً في المواجهة المقبلة، بحيث لا تقل أهمية عن الجهد الحربي نفسه.

يؤكد سيبوني ما يسميه «القتال ضد إسرائيل من دون نيران»، في توصيفه للمعركة على العقل، حيث هي معركة على الإدراك وعلى التأثير، وهي السمة التي يتّسم بها خطاب نصر الله. على هذه الخلفية، يطالب الباحث أن يفهم مبلورو السياسات والاستراتيجيات في إسرائيل أن العقل بات جزءاً أصيلاً من معركة القرن الواحد والعشرين، والأمن المعرفي هو الآن ضرورة ملحّة للأمن القومي.

إشارات سيبوني وتوصيفاته، والمطالبات والإلحاح عليها في مقالته، والتنميق في اختيار عباراته، ربطاً بمكانته وسعة اطلاعه على السياسات والاستراتيجيات المتبناة والمفعلة من قبل الجيش الإسرائيلي، تشير كلها بشكل واضح لا لبس فيه إلى أن إسرائيل حتى الآن، بعد مرور 12 عاماً على حرب عام 2006، ورغم إدراكها خطورة صورة نصر الله المحفورة في العقل الإسرائيلي، إلا أنها لم تجد حتى الآن «علاج» هذه الظاهرة وتأثيرها السلبي، كسلاح ثانٍ لدى حزب الله، يتكامل مع الوسائل القتالية والجهود العسكرية، قبل المعارك وخلالها، وأيضاً في أعقابها.

سؤال الساعة في «إسرائيل»: «متى نشنّ حرباً لا خيار لنا فيها»؟

فبراير 5, 2018

د. عصام نعمان

منذ أسبوعين وكبار المسؤولين «الإسرائيليين» على المستويين السياسي والعسكري يطلقون تهديداتٍ ضدّ لبنان وحزب الله، ما أعطى انطباعاً بأنّ العدو في صدد شنِّ حربٍ وشيكة. الناطقُ باسم جيشه الجنرال رونين منليس حذّر من «تحركات إيران المتسارعة والخطرة لإقامة مصانع إنتاج للصواريخ المتطوّرة في لبنان، والاستعدادات الخطرة التي يقوم بها حزب الله في مواجهة إسرائيل». وزيرُ الحرب أفيغدور ليبرمان حذّر من مخاطر قيام لبنان بعقد اتفاقات مع شركاتٍ للتنقيب عن الغاز والنفط في القطاع Block رقم 9 في المياه البحرية الإقليمية» وهي، بحسب زعمه، «منطقة تمتلكها إسرائيل»، مهدّداً بأنه: «ممنوع أن يلهو اللبنانيون على شواطئ بيروت ويقبع الإسرائيليون في ملاجئ تل أبيب». صحيفة «معاريف» 2018/1/30 قالت إنّ بنيامين نتنياهو زار موسكو أخيراً كي يطلب من فلاديمير بوتين أن ينقل الى إيران تحذيراً مفاده: «اذا لم توقف طهران فوراً والآن هذه التحركات إقامة مصانع إنتاج للصواريخ في لبنان فإنّ لدى «إسرائيل» خطة لتدمير جميع مراكز هذه التهديدات». وزيرُ التعليم «الإسرائيلي» نفتالي بينيت هدّد اللبنانيين بقوله عبر صحيفة «يسرائيل هيوم» 2018/1/31 : «لن نوافق بعد اليوم على التفريق بين حزب الله والدولة اللبنانية».

وسائلُ الإعلام «الإسرائيلية» أسهبت في تقييم ونقد ما صدر عن المسؤولين «الإسرائيليين» من تصريحات وتهديدات. صحيفةُ «هآرتس» 2018/1/30 لم تستبعد أن تكون تلك التهديدات «تحضيراً للرأي العام الإسرائيلي والدولي كخطوة ضرورية تسبق عملية عسكرية، مع افتراض أنها تهدف إلى ردع إيران ولبنان، أو دفع حكومة لبنان إلى كبح المخطط الإيراني». ثم تساءلت: «لكن ماذا يحدث لو تبدّد هذا الافتراض بأن لم ترتدع إيران؟ هل ستضطر «إسرائيل» حينها الى خوض الحرب؟».

المحلل العسكري أليكس فيشمان طرح السؤال نفسه في صحيفة «معاريف» 2018/2/1 وأجاب بقوله: «ليس لدينا جواب عن هذا السؤال، لكن وجهة النظر المنطقية تقول إنه عندما لا تكون لدى الطرفين رغبة في الدخول في حرب، فالافتراض هو أن الحرب ليست على الأبواب».

المحلل السياسي يسرائيل هرئيل أبدى في صحيفة «هآرتس» 2018/2/1 رأياً مغايراً بقوله «إنّ سياسة الاحتواء التي مارستها «إسرائيل» حوّلت مواطنيها رهائن لتنظيم إرهابي … وإنّ عمليات القصف المتقطع للشحنات الإيرانية المحمّلة بالصواريخ الى لبنان ليست أكثر من ألعاب نارية إذ يجري تدمير العشرات بينما المئات، بل الآلاف، من الشحنات تصل إلى حزب الله … وإنّ حكومة «إسرائيل» من خلال تفضيلها سياسة عدم التحرك وعدم القيام بشيء باستثناء ضربات صغيرة هنا وهناك، لم تدفع السلام إلى الأمام، بل على العكس سمحت سياسة الاحتواء لإيران وحزب الله بالاستعداد للحرب».

بالتزامن مع حملة التهديدات «الإسرائيلية» برز عامل جديد بالغ الدلالة. فقد اتهمت الناطقة بلسان وزارة الخارجية الأميركية هذر نويرت، كما مسؤول مجلس الأمن القومي الأميركي اتش آر ماكماستر سورية بالعودة إلى استعمال أسلحة كيميائية كلور في حربها ضدّ أعدائها في منطقة دوما الغوطة الشرقية ما أوحى بأنّ إدارة ترامب ربما تكون في صدد توجيه ضربة عسكرية إلى سورية، وهي عملية كانت إدارة أوباما هدّدت باللجوء إليها العام 2013 لكنها امتنعت عنه بعدما جرى التفاهم مع موسكو، برضى دمشق، على أن تتخلى سورية عن مخزونها من الأسلحة الكيميائية. وقد جرى فعلاً تسليم هذه الأسلحة وإتلافها بواسطة الوكالة الأممية المختصة.

في ضوء هذه الواقعات، ينهض سؤالان: هل ومتى تقوم «إسرائيل» بحربٍ ضدّ حزب الله في لبنان، وحيث يتواجد في سورية؟ وهل تشارك الولايات المتحدة في حربها تلك أم تكتفي بمساندتها سياسياً ولوجستياً؟

تبدو «إسرائيل» حائرة أمام أيّ خيار تعتمد في هذه المرحلة. ذلك أنها تتهيّب جسامة الخسائر البشرية والمادية التي يمكن أن تتكبّدها إذا ما خاضت حرباً تعرف سلفاً أنّ بمقدور حزب الله بآلاف صواريخه الموجّهة والدقيقة إلحاق أضرار بالغة الجسامة بمرافقها الحيوية كهرباء، نفط، غاز، موانئ، مستودعات أمونيا، جسور، مفاعل ديمونا النووي إلخ… وقد لا تفضي بالضرورة إلى إنهاء التهديد الذي يشكّله حزب الله.

غير أنّ رأياً آخر أكثر تصلّباً بدأ يظهر في أوساط القيادة السياسية والعسكرية، وقد عبّر عنه المحلل السياسي يسرائيل هرئيل في «هآرتس» 2018/2/1 بقوله إنّ القيادة العامة للجيش «الإسرائيلي» تستعدّ لليوم الذي تصدر فيه الأوامر، لكنها تتجنّب الإقرار بأنه كلما جرى تأجيل الحسم سيكون الثمن باهظاً ومؤلماً أكثر. ذلك انه «إذا أعطينا العدو، كعادتنا، فرصة القيام بالضربة الأولى، فإنّ الثمن سيكون لا يحتمل إذ ماذا ستفيد ضربة مضادة؟». يختم هرئيل رأيه بالقول: «إنّ جميع الذين يحاولون هنا منع اتخاذ خطوات ضرورية للحؤول دون حدوث صدمة وطنية إضافية يرتكبون خطأ كبيراً، وإذا ما قُبلت معارضتهم فإنهم سيتسبّبون بكارثة للأمة وسيندمون عليها ندماً شديداً». لذا وضع هرئيل لمقالته عنواناً لافتاً: «حرب لا خيار فيها من أجل إخضاع حزب الله».

إخضاع حزب الله؟!

هل يمكن أن تسمح إيران لـ»إسرائيل» بأن تضرب حزب الله في لبنان وسورية من دون أن تتدخّل هي من خلال قواتها الموجودة في سورية والعراق وربما في الداخل الإيراني أيضاً؟

لا شك في أنّ القيادة «الإسرائيلية» تضع هذا الاحتمال الراجح في حسبانها، وكذلك الولايات المتحدة ما يجعل انخراط الأخيرة مباشرةً في الحرب أمراً مستبعداً… إلاّ إذا كان ترامب قد بلغ من الجنون حداً يجعله لا يبالي بأن يصبح الشرق الأوسط برمّته، وربما العالم كله، ميداناً لحربٍ عالميةٍ ثالثة.

وزير سابق

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